or not, how resting there, we'd crawled by day. why did they may not get that good. right? because the risk management of wait am phone from around the world. surprises rose sharply. yeah. inside when neighboring nigeria restricted as a tragic twist of faith for iran president. but i remember that you see is kills and a helicopter crash at a time of rising tension in the region on domestic concern over economic crisis. so what does the death of a man wisely foster has been the next supreme leader meeting for iran? this is inside the hello and welcome to the program. i'm danny. you navigate it, but i remember that you see was widely believed to be on track to shaping iran

future for years to come. instead, the country is observing 5 days of morning after his death and a helicopter cross. there is no power vacuum. however, because according to the constitution, the 1st vice president assumes power until the elections are held within 50 days. so how would you suggest effective ringing policy both at home and abroad? and could there be repercussions in the region? will deal with these questions with our panel of experts in a moment. but 1st, this reports by wrestle starts our entire on in the shock and disbelief in the wrong. often i had to go up to task your present. you may receive this for the minister and 7 others authorities. last a major search operation, including more than 70 emergency crews. and it turned off the armed forces, flying thrones with huge sensors, driving through a tape falk. that's according to remove the mountainous area of northern iran. when

they eventually located the cash site, there was no sign of life in the wreckage, typically for the lower visibility of rain, possibly since now their shame that combined with a helicopter flying and very rough map, one is a ray, is really a recipe for disaster race. sees that comes at the time when region of passions are running high. these ready on is bombarding gaza invitation for an attack by how much spite there's in october, members of the lebanese group. he's belie back, but you run already involved in the data across the board that attacks on his rarely made it to the positions that you're on. the launch of the water with israel has moved out into the open last month is that attacked east coast of us in damascus, getting 3 senior commanders that around responded with

a salvo of thrones. and me, so i was targeting is rarely made it your basis young why size being and one of the most important support does have to probably see hundreds and has been active the following and diplomacy and negotiations and being wasn't, could do to support that kind of thing and even the lack of presidents is, are going to change. and the foreign policy on the home front, racy, had the face of anger after he type into job those reviving an economy better by west of the sections was another challenge. she had hoped to turn things around by strength and relations in the region, and was visiting either be john to further that goal. the brain receives defiance of the west can be traced back when he was a young man studying under. i have to lot of the some money. in fact the lead president was seen as a like the successive to the something leader. somebody has declared 5 thieves of

national morning ray. see what the dates rest later this week. instead of that of to 0 into ron for the inside story, the ok, let's look deeper into what this new poster era could mean for iran. with our guest joining us from to run, we have a much better on see who's a professor at the university to ron, and also immediate advisor to that rainy and negotiating team jury new clear thoughts in new york rocks on for him on for my on is a professor at cambridge university in the u. k. i'm middle east security specialist. joining us from washington, dc, a sort of policy who's the executive vice president of the quincy institute for responsible state cross. the thing us think tank. welcome to you all. thanks so much for your time, mister mirand, the over and so hold on that you're someone who personally knew about him is that you see what's the mood like into around right now with the news of the death of the president, the foreign minister, as well as their companions well,

everyone that i know is very sorrowful. i was on campus today both before and after class students, colleagues and employees all came up to me and they were all moved. it was interesting that even some of the students who a couple of years back took back to parts. and the brian sort of protests that they were very upset and a couple came to my room. so in the mood and to around is very sort of especially since he has been seen is working very hard traveling from city to city, from village to village. but he's constantly on the move. he's constantly been on the move and usually he goes to the privacy areas where people are impoverished and where people have been held back for a host of different reasons. and therefore, especially among the people with the working class or those or more disenfranchise

. he has always been very popular, but i think the mood has been very, a sort of soul over the past 24 hours and many of his political opponents any longer been very harsh towards him, both online and offline. dave, uh, also expressed shock and dismay and he is a very friendly, humble person in that steps that has made him very popular as an individual. what are your concerns if you have any about the accidents itself? i do not think at this stage there was any reason to believe that there was file pay of course there will definitely have to be an investigation. there are questions they may have very legitimate answers. but it does seem that when the helicopter took off, the weather was good. and then in entered a very bad weather. there was heavy rain. there was heavy

fog and there was a sudden change and weather to an over the past few weeks. the weather in iran has been very different from the previous weeks. usually this time of year. we don't have rain or snow in the mountains, but this is the last 4 weeks. has been very different from previous years of rocks on in new york. how would you describe presidents that uses, like i say? well, i think 1st of all he was attempt to possibly follow the supreme leader who having a, who is 85 years old. and his succession has been a subject of some debate in preparation. and i think we can see that right, i see was very much being cultivated, had been elected as a possible successor. his credentials are very much ones we can see is both loyal to home and a and also of having proven himself to be strongly repressive. at the

time of the uprisings and protests of the women like freedom movements. so i think he was a leader, politically of a ideological turn that has been conservative to the extreme and very much within the inner circle of harmonies to ask for the reading constitution. iran vice president's 1st month's president, that is mohammed most, but now is students the intern presidency and on the back it is to take over as an interim for administer. what can you tell us about these 2 men that will be taking up these posts, at least in the interim, a sewing machine weighs um, uh, by 1st vice president from the city of this julio, who is this don and southern new ron, former governor, deputy governor of who is this don region and uh, well of course only be in charge for the next 50 days because the constitution

calls for new elections. uh, within uh 50 days which is of course going to be quite a challenge uh for the government given the accuracy that the population showed by and large and when it comes to the parliamentary elections that would just have a very, very recently in regards to. ready about getting connie, it's interesting, this was the person who was the deputy of the previous not advisor. uh, so you just need, it was very hard line very much against the j 6. you a connie wasn't later on taking over the fall of negotiating a return for the united states to the agreement, which never happened. uh and uh, it has somewhat shifted his position uh, but nevertheless, has maintained it rather hawkish position on the new tenant talks, which at this point is largely shared by the ronnie. and indeed, as a whole, i think by and large people have lost confidence and hope that the united states actually it's capable of providing sustain sanctions really. um,

so the type of attitude that perhaps would have made them an outline earlier on the nuclear talks is no longer the case. the question is how one for going forward if he remains in that position, the impact of what, how when it comes to yvonne's approach to the west of the whole, particularly if the changes take place in the united states in november. right. and we'll get into that discussion in just a moment. but 1st let me bringing mr. moran do once again from to her on because as tutor was just saying, there is no a 50 day window for elections. any potential candidates for the upcoming election. that's that you can think off at this point, you know, it's too early to say right now the government, the administration is preparing for elections and i haven't heard anyone say announced that they may stand for the focus of the administration will be the elections. but during the coming days,

of course it will be the funeral and i think that we will see that uh present res. he is a very popular when we, when the funeral takes place, i think there will be a ceremony tomorrow and cavities. and then his body will be brought to 10, ron, and there will be another funeral. and i think, well, we'll see enormous numbers come to the streets. so what we often hear in the west for media about him being unpopular or hated or extreme. uh, usually when the, when the public turns out, then people go swap silent and move on. we saw the same thing during the period of general sunday mind me when he was murdered by the americans. we saw unprecedented krause any wrong. so i think it's very, it should be, you know, western uh, governments should be very careful about their assessments on the wrong day. they always get it wrong and i expect them to get it wrong in the future as well. what is the impact system or on the iraq sign was mentioned in just

a moment ago on the succession for the supreme leader. because of him that you see was tell to this possibly being one of the candidates to succeeds, the supreme leader. you know, that has never been the case and the same is true about the root leaders. so this is something that we usually hear from western media, our western thing times for western sources. but those who are involved inside the administration, inside the state, they no one takes this seriously present, right? so you never had any such a emissions who either to do it as a sign of the leader. but this is the sort of thing that we're going to hear who the constitution has a, a, an answer to every issue. the leader is very healthy and he will probably be healthy in the year in the years to come. but when he does pass away, the, there is a body that will and that to a new leader just says when and mom for me and he passed away in 1989. immediately

afterwards, a new leader was elected and there was no problem. also in the 1980s when the united states and europeans helped m u k. and sat down to stay and also helped indicate to murder our prime minister and our president at that time. at that during that time the constitution had a prime minister. it didn't bring about any change we had collections immediately afterwards and the new president was elected, it was actually i to the harmony who later became the leader who was elected as president. so the constitution is clear about how the issues will be solved. and this, the presidency will be um, but the issue will be resolved shortly. brooks on, uh, you mentioned the process that had broken out um, earlier in iran and, but you see, wasn't charged when these process did break out. in your opinion, how, how popular figure do you think he was? i mean, he was elected, but at the time of turn out was lowered around 41 percent. the election was

turned out was low and i'd say to many of the stronger candidates at the time were removed by the process of vetting that normally takes place before the actual elections. so in many ways, i think many people felt that he had been hand picked and that the plan was that he would be groomed in some sense for a possible next step. and although of course dr. mirandi is right, that there is a process and place the difference from the time of the previous transition from uh, i have to, uh, uh for many who then the revolution to the correct supreme leader is that there were many, many candidates available at that time. and i think everyone is going to be looking today to see who the candidates could possibly be, because there aren't,

are already many of the supreme leader is relatively isolated. and by design, he has eliminated many of the options that are out there because he has a vision and those that work closely with him. share that vision. and now many of the larger clergy, or many in the broader bureaucracy i think have been sidelined and so it will be quite difficult. i think for the current administration to mount and election in 50 days and also to find candidates that truly reflect what the supreme leader has in mind. because his view is very dominant. and he has also been hand selecting in many ways. those that sit on the committee that will be responsible for appointing or electing the next supreme leader when that time comes true, i don't want to put words in your mouth here, but is it safe to say that's when it comes to iran?

we shouldn't expect any changes, no matter who takes on the presidency as well as the postal before administer. we shouldn't expect any changes when it comes specifically to national security of the country as well as sort of the ideological direction. and i think that is to overstate it, without a doubt, there is continuity in the wrong inform policy. and frankly, there's striking continuity of foreign policy between the shars regime and the current question. when you scratch the surface by the presidents have been impactful, for instance, had it not been for hudson romani, i am not convinced that the ball would have gone in the direction negotiate and the volunteer to deal with the j. c general. he wasn't major driving force behind that . it's difficult to point to what specific driving force race he was for any particular policy. i think that his track record was showing more as being a loyal, perhaps, even appliance president, to the supreme relieved that rather than one that was really making his mark by uh,

trying a new direction. but i think it is more safe to say that the presidents actually can be quite implacable depending on the personality of the person who holds that office. in the case of re see was far less old compared to both. i'm at the new job and of a 100 and a mr. baran, do you mean to someone who advised or you were rather the media advisor to the iranian and negotiating team during nuclear talks? do you think that this latest development and this data for that you see into the, for administer will have any impact on any potential nuclear talks going forward? what will happen now to? well, 1st of all, i would have to point out that continuity is something that we see in the united states and in the u. k, and france and across the u. and that is reflective of this, that there is a, a state which is complicated and there are different people involved. and it's not

just the leader or the president contrary to what many in the west seem to think private res. he had actually buried huge impact. the improves are relations with neighboring countries. um there was rocco shop, for example, of saudi arabia. but also we can improve the economic ties and political ties with countries to the north, to the south, and to the sense of the box as well. and the crisis and i found the son was well managed at the same time, he also pushed to join the shanghai co operation organization in bricks and the ron's presence and in these organizations will have a huge impact in the future. so he runs influence and the global south has increased dramatically and his trips abroad has shown that so in foreign policy, he's actually brought about a great deal of change with regards to economic policy. we do have, despite the fact that the situation remains there, but we've had 2 years of significant growth in the economy,

although things are still difficult for ordinary ryans. but one point that i would like to point out is that actually, when am i in so many passed away. uh, we thought at least people like myself in my youth, we thought there were no people because he was top a towering figure. the revolution was his, and the people came to the streets because of him. and i told a harmony at the time was a much younger person. but the constitution worked, he came to the place and we have many people today, both to replace the president. and we have many competent people for all the different areas of the rock see as leadership. and although i to lot, harmony is very healthy as i said before. but i have no concerns about the future. the right, the truth is that the west fails to recognize that the ronald is here to stay and till they get to that point, i don't think they are going to be able to solve the problems. ok,

i'll bring in sort of because they want us to respond. but mr. miranda you didn't answer. my point on the nuclear talks is very briefly. i mean, do you expect a continue? it's if continue with a when it comes to this nuclear file as well, just yes or no. yes, i think so, but remember, we were almost there, the americans literally back. so i was in vienna during the negotiations, and ultimately the you uh, the foreign policy chief, joseph morales said that the wrong and demands were acceptable, that they, that they were, they should have it. and we thought we had a deal at that time. turn out that you see was a major supporter of ties with russia and china. i mean, for the global south, how do you think that they'll be viewing his death? and i do think that uh, that somewhere under is quite correct. yvonne has significantly improved its relationship with the global south. it is not part of the bricks, it is part of the seo. these are significant developments because for decades,

yvonne was actually not part of any particular grouping or alliance, political, military, et cetera. and now it is, and it is happening at a time when the global power dynamics is definitely shifting away from the west, not only towards the east, but also towards the global cell. so the bricks, membership i think, is a big deal. the extent to which one would credit, right, e c for these developments is a different story. however, i'm not suggesting that he was unimportant in all of this. and he certainly was supported. but the extent to which one would say that he played a key role in mediating and negotiating this, i think, is a bit overstated. and i do think that we will see a continued c on that front, which is not only because of the institutions that exist in the stomach republic how so because of the fact that the race is role. and then all of this was not that the size. what about relations with the gulf? a roxan? i mean uh, we saw that the rep for us small the, uh, the mending of relations if you'd like, between a ron and a saudi arabia,

in march of 2023. how do you see things playing out there? well, i think that certainly triggered a general feeling of partially thanks to the intervention of china in bringing saudi arabia new ron together into a deal of, of constructive negotiation. i think that that this is a driving force that will continue. but on the other hand, i agree with teresa is that i don't really see that it was necessarily only a project to receive. i would say that another great boss in this particular a, a helicopter crash has been the foreign minister of doing dr. young because i think he, although it's always difficult to read the tea leaves and know how much he influenced the decision making his ability to act upon magically and to develop a narrative that worked with the neighbors in both the golf add to the northwest,

azerbaijan, and the conferences, but also west asia, i think and central asia was significant. he had a means of being quite diplomatic and developing ways to start building trust with the wrong. and i think in many ways that is going to be quite a loss and we're going to see uh, a, a search for someone to replace him perhaps that will be somewhat less. so a, you know, less aggressive that i see the current appointment balls are telling me, i think if it is to be bothered pony, i think it will probably be slightly less successful because he's considerably harder edged when it comes to me or on the when it comes to the, the resistance groups in the region. i mean the 2 men, the other issue as well as the foreign minister. they both have

a long history of backing. not only the palestinian cause for one as we see now in the gaza war, but also the resistance movements around the region. and we've had a response from groups like time us has the food these and you have on all of course, expressing their condolences and solidarity with their own. i wonder if you can weigh in on that aspect. he runs policy towards from us and hezbollah. the other resistance movement will not change at all the ron and will continue to fully support time us and it's resistance against the as riley turned aside the wrong will also continue to support all of the palestinian groups, whether in gaza or elsewhere. so the ron's policy is, is, will remain the same and proposes that the premises i'm compiled assign and it believes that the, that hum austin is telling me that your heart and all the others on the right to

resist. and that this really regime is illegitimate. that will just not change at sort of a foreign minister as roxan was mentioning a moment ago, a season diplomats very well known in new york among the circles of diplomats there . oh, what would be his legacy? do you think to i think the most important legacy for him will be the outreach to the arab world. he was excellent. our speak arabic speaker. i had spent a lot of his time in the arab world, which was quite a shift from previous for ministers who often time had a significant experience in the west. this was reflective on the ron shift under the conservative governments of focus more locally and looks towards the south and towards the east rather than looking towards the west to resolve extensions and issues. and in that sense, i think both the, the opening to saudi arabia as well as pharmacy that has been taking place behind

the scenes with jordan, with egypt and other states is going to be part of the legacy of the law. i'm trying to integrate itself deeper with this arab neighbors rather than trying to so that for strategic ties with extra regional powers, rocks on final word to you. and i mean, just looking ahead, you have 5 days until the election, 50 days, excuse me, until the election is going to be held. i mean, is this on charter territory for iran, or what are you keeping an eye out on over the next few weeks at least? well, i think the same that we've brought up as a continuity seems so i think there certainly has been an effort already on the part of the leadership to dampen down any kind of suspicions or a sense of disruption. and i think we're going to try to probably see a great deal more of that. and i think what we will possibly be seeing is a, if it's possible to go that direction,

a slight hardening because i think the candidates that are available are people that have somewhat less experience in the regional or global setting. and i think although i very much agree with the teachers that this is a shift, a little bit overall towards the east. and i think that's definitely where iran is going and the south and a focus on the neighborhood policy of the gulf. i think it's going to be difficult to negotiate. okay, we'll have to leave it there. thank you so much for joining us for how much more on the front of ron roxan farm on for you on from new york and sort of piracy from washington dc. thank you. thanks for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website out to 0. com. you can have a further discussion by going to our facebook page that's facebook dot com, forward slash a inside story to in the conversation on twitter on x for handle is a inside story from myself and a whole team here. bye for now. the,

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