the about the consequences about the vote regardless of whether we had at that stage left that it would have an impact? why has that not come to pass? a lot of those predictions we re pass? a lot of those predictions were predicated by the european union being left by britain. but somewhere about the consequences of the vote. that was more long term, the vote. that was more long term, the detail on this one, it is consumption driven growth and that is what is helping bring the uk's economy forward and make it perform better than would have been expected. i suppose that potentially could cause trouble because this is one of the things that falls first when things get rocky. yes, a lot of what we have seen with consumption is being fuelled by debt soaked consumer credit increased over the same period by 6.6%. one of the banks was warning today there is a real danger that it was not profitable any more to lend money too risky. it is a real concern because the main issue that we are seeing with uncertainty is that it

is affecting investment and that is basically future growth, so when you have investment decisions being delayed and baddiel and in some cases, just forgotten altogether, it tends to lead to negative outcomes in the future. that is when people might not be able to pay their debt. i suppose one of the interesting things about all of this is the talk that there had been over a number of yea rs that there had been over a number of years about the importance of rebalancing the economy, particularly after the financial crash. that does not appear to have happened in the way that people like george osborne when he was chancellor were hoping would be achieved. yes, the rebalancing the shift away from the financial services into more manufacturing... on the march of the makers, i am not wearing a high vizjacket but you can pretend! it is not necessarily happening to the same extent and a lot of people thought that the depreciation of sterling that has fallen by 50%, that we would get that post, but big manufacturing firms that export globally, they do not necessarily know what they're trading emissions will be with the

eu, a very large market and more generally with the rest of the world afterwards. -- 1596. many manufacturers are enjoying a boost to their exports because that is cheaper. it is not cheaper for them to import materials but it is cheaper for people to buy our stuff abroad. there are offsetting factors like you mentioned, they have to import stuff and to put into the exports that they are exporting and they are more expensive. on the other hand, the euro, it is depreciating at the same time as sterling is, so they are not getting the same beneficial currency diversions that you might see otherwise. briefly, finally, what is the overall trend, did you think? where is our economy heading? it is kind of like an aircraft carrier, it ta kes a kind of like an aircraft carrier, it takes a long time to move anywhere. if you do see some of these trends of inflation rising at the same time as firms holding off on investments, like increasing pay and wages, then you might get a bit of an economic

slowdown. michael martin is from the visitors are directors, thank you for being with us on bbc news. that isa for being with us on bbc news. that is a look at what the economy has on hold, now it is time for meet the author. chris cleave knows how to spin a story. his novels incendiary and gold were huge bestsellers, gripping thrillers that were also psychological studies. his new novel, everyone brave is forgiven, takes us back to the early years of the second world war, to the london of the blitz, at a time when no one quite knew who was going to win in the end. it is the story of unlikely, enduring love, a picture of society pulled apart by the threat of destruction, and an account of the human cost of war and human resilience. welcome. chris, many people have written novels set in the second world war.

it's a very familiar scene. what made you want to do it one more time? i'm always writing about the time that we are living in now. i became really interested in the idea of unity, and the idea of the country coming together and putting aside its differences to face down an existential threat. and the last time that we did that really was the second world war. and so i thought if i could go back into that period, and research it with fresh eyes, trying to understand how it had felt at the time, at the outbreak of war, when people weren't sure whether it was the right course of action to take, when the country was still, at the beginning, disunited about whether we should appease hitler or whether we should fight, that difficult time at the beginning of the war is a period that i think is really unexamined. those of us who were born

after the war like you and me tend to forget how uncertain that time was. most people felt strongly about the threat, and strongly about people who had been caught up and decided to go and fight, but there was uncertainty in the air? uncertainty and a lot of fear. we now look at the war movies and the war novels and they tend to show these very stoical figures, square—jawed and brave. they always win! they take these insane risks and it always pays off for them. but in real life, these people were frightened and they were very young. you tell the story through the interlocking stories of i suppose four people really, so it's through them that you see the war. it's through an individual that you get a picture of london? because i wanted to immerse the reader in their experience of becoming part of that fighting machine. it's the becoming that i found more interesting than the being.

they weren't brave to begin with. i think that a muscle is the best model for courage. something that develops through use. at the beginning they were nervous, they were frightened and they had very different agendas. and of course, bravery, your title everyone brave is forgiven is a beautifully ambiguous and sort of penetrating title in the sense it makes you wonder, what is this book really about? but you reveal how bravery comes in all shapes and sizes. it means different things to different people. to stand up in peace time against a policy of one's own government might be construed as a brave action but in wartime that is cowardice, that is treachery, that is betrayal. that transitional period between peace and war is interesting. notjust people's ability

to be brave changes, but the notion of what bravery means changes and it changes with each individual at different speeds and i like that. one of the ways you get into that is to cross social boundaries in a very deliberate way. the woman we meet at the very beginning of the book comes from a particular segment of society. finishing school but didn't finish it, i think you put it somewhere. and you meet people in different walks of life and you've got a very acute sense of where those boundaries were and however, one knew where the line was drawn. i like the fact that the boundaries haven't changed either. all those fault lines... they are recognisable to us? absolutely, don't you think? you could be living in 1939 and know exactly where the fault lines in society were between the haves and the have—nots, where the racial divides in society were. they are still with us. that society is very recognisable, and as a writer, something i have often done is to look at things,

where are those fault lines in our society and how can i voice people on both sides of those, and try to show the enormity of the fractures in our society. they don't heal, they haven't healed. and yet it's not a book that is driven, it seems to me anyway as a reader, by anger or bitterness or envy from one side of society to the other. it's a very generous book in that sense. i mean, you're quite inside yourself i think, almost sentimental? i like people! i really do. i wouldn't write about people unless i really liked them. what i like is survivors. i like people who have reinvented themselves, who have been hurt. i think everybody has been hurt by the time they are grown up. i liked the fact that people don't just stay on the mat. they do get up and they do help each

other and they do help each other across those fragmentation lines in society. i write about people because i do think there's an enormous amount to hope for still. you're talking, in telling the story of these people, about enormous resilience. that seems to be the characteristic you find most inspiring by what happened during the war? i think it was amazing the way people dug in. we know now, we can watch a war movie or we can think back to the second world war and think, they only had to tough it out until 1945, and some people as long as 1916. they didn't know that! they didn't know what they were embarking on. they didn't know how long their suffering would continue. i liked that about them. i liked the sense of humour that was starting to develop. really, it was a funny book. i wanted to show that the sense of humour that my grandparents had, i remember talking to my grandfather about his first parachute jump. he was very scared.

he said in the back of the plane the sergeant major would cheer us up and he said, never mind, lads, if your parachutes don't open, you can just take them back to the packing shed! theyjoked their way through the war because they were terrified and that's what i liked about that generation, and that's what i liked and still like actually about british people. the more frightened we are, the funnier we get. that for me is a very civilised response to fear. i don't want to talk about the plot in any detail because it will spoil it for people, because it is a story which i think needs to keep its secrets until the end, but we are talking in a way, you are talking in the book about emotions that are released, really, because of the threat, because of the darkness, because of the uncertainty. somehow, emotions are. people behave differently in war. and like the fact that people's choices had

to made in a split second, and they were made, often from the gut. i think that's what life does to you. it tests you when you are least expecting it and the answers that you come up with, that you reveal about your character are not always pleasant, are not always expected, but are the inevitable result of all the little habits you have built up during your life. what would you most like people to take away from this story? most of all i would like them to be immersed in that experience of what we call the golden generation, and to come away with a fresh appreciation of what they did and what we could still do. chris cleave, thank you very much. thank you. good evening. it has been bitterly cold for many parts of the country today, and especially under the

cloud. here we are in west berkshire earlier in the day. the cloud is quite extensive and in east anglia temperatures struggled to rise above minus two celsius. in the sunshine in north west scotland, 12 degrees and we had some lovely sunshine across the north west of wales. look at that beautiful sunny skies. now, as the sun has gone down, the temperature has started to drop. the cloud is melting. the winds are falling like inland, so we have that present before widespread frost and the mist and fog again to return, more so the mist and fog again to return, more so than last night. these are towns and city temperatures, but in the countryside they will be lower again, really quite bitter out and about. some frost on the car is and potentially, because see a little bit of drizzle around and some just a few, there could be some ice issues as we head into friday morning's rush hour. some fog on the

sports for wales across the peak district and in two parts of yorkshire. also part of pembrokeshire. we have some patchy rain gathering towards the west and thatis rain gathering towards the west and that is a sign of changes taking place during the day but another cold sparked —— start across the west of scotland. but this weather front coming in on friday, the winds are coming from the south, rather than the south east, so it will be a degree less bitter for most of us but an increasing cloud, so still feeling cold. for most it will be dry apart from the odd bit of drizzle until later when the showers come in and teach it across the west of scotla nd come in and teach it across the west of scotland and the western fringes of scotland and the western fringes of england and wales. the error is mild, to get up to 10 degrees by the end of the day. that band of showers mouse eastwards on saturday, bright weather replaces it. showers coming in. the south—westerly breeze, not particularly warm, 56 degrees, wintriness over the hills. this is the question for sunday, how far north willis weather system come? we could see some rain in the south, at

this stage, on balance, it looks as if it will give england and wales some rain, relatively mild air tied in with that, so the best that dry and brighter weather will be further north and it will be less cold, more breeze around and rain but do stay tuned if you have planned this weekend. this is bbc news. the headlines at 8.00pm: trump talks tough on trade, telling fellow republicans he wants bilateral deals,that would include 30—day termination clauses. and there will be one—on—one deals and if that particular country doesn't treat us fairly, we send them a 30 day notice of termination. mr trump's comments come as theresa may touches down in the us — where she'll become the first world leader to meet the new president. we will bring you her speech live from philadelphia in this hour.

suicide rates in prisons in england and wales have reached record levels — with 119 inmates taking their own lives during 2016. also this hour — strong consumer spending helps the economy grow faster than expected. new figures say it grew by 0.6% during the final quarter of last year — easing fears of a slowdown following the brexit vote.