the bank of england cuts its forecasts for uk growth over the next two years. it's also warned that a no—deal brexit would hit the economy and trigger a further drop in the value of the pound. profound uncertainties over the future of the global trading system and the form that brexit will take are weighing on uk economic performance. it comes as the government says it will spend another £2 billion on planning for a no—deal brexit. i have turbo—charged our preparations, both at the treasury and helping across government, to prepare for no deal. not because we wa nt prepare for no deal. not because we want it, but we have to be prepared, because we will be leaving on october 31. we'll have the latest from westminster on the government's brexit preparations. also this lunchtime...

the british student who died falling from a plane in madagascar — now police there say she opened the door herself. the mobile phone app that could save lives by detecting potentially fatal kidney conditions. and in the first ashes test, england fire a broad—side at australia's opening batsmen. and coming up on bbc news, andy and jamie murray are through to the second round of the men's doubles in washington, winning in straight sets. it's the first time they've played together since 2016. good afternoon and welcome

to the bbc news at one. the bank of england has cut its forecasts for economic growth over the next two years. it has also warned a no—deal brexit would trigger a further drop in the value of the pound. interest rates has been unchanged against a backdrop of trade tensions between the united states and china. let's speak to our economics correspondent dharshini david. tell us a bit more about this latest forecast. indeed, why do we care what the bank of england thanks, let's start with that, because they set our interest rates and these numbers are what they look at when they think of what to do with our cost of borrowing. this is a bit of a strange situation because they are having to assume there will be a smooth adjustment to brexit, in other words a deal, but even with that, when you look at their forecast, they say the cost of uncertainty is weighing on the economy. first of all it is hitting

investment for example, so they think there is a one in three chance oui’ think there is a one in three chance our economy could shrink over the next year, and that is even with a deal. and of course we have seen the pound weakened in recent weeks because of concerns about a no deal. that they say is putting up the cost of living, but even they acknowledge perhaps that is not a realistic scenario to look at, should they be talking about the risks of a no deal? they have done some work on that and they say they have talked to businesses up and down the country, the good news is the majority of businesses seem to be doing as much as they can to prepare. but even with that, the governor of the bank of england is morning this could mean weaker growth and high inflation ahead, let's hear what he had to say. in the event of no deal, it is probable cpi inflation would rise and gp do growth would slow. we find that most companies now report they are largely ready for no deal, however just a are largely ready for no deal, howeverjust a fifth describe themselves as fully ready, while

three quarters have responded, saying they were "as ready as they can be", and despite greater preparedness, businesses still expect their output, employment and investment to fall by about one to 396 investment to fall by about one to 3% over the next year in the event of no deal. so an ominous warning from the bank of england, of course some people might say why should we believe them? fair enough, but if they are right, what does that actually means interest rates? on the one hand, higher inflation may mean you want to put up interest rates. on the other hand, weekly growth means you want to cut them. tricky decisions ahead. that man mark carney who leaves the job at the start of next year, it might not be up to him. thank you very much indeed, our economics correspondent, —— you need david. the government is setting aside an extra £2.1 billion to prepare for a no—deal brexit. the money will be used to recruit hundreds more border staff, improve infrastructure at ports and carry out a public information campaign. labour have described the plans as "an appalling waste of taxpayers' cash." helena wilkinson reports.

as time ticks away towards that october deadline, the government today ramped up preparations for a no deal scenario. at a port in essex this morning, the chancellor sajid javid said they had to be ready. this morning, the chancellor sajid javid said they had to be readym 91 days, we will be leaving the eu. we wa nt 91 days, we will be leaving the eu. we want to leave with a good deal, something that abolishes the undemocratic backstop, but if we don't get that good deal, we will be leaving with no deal, and since i arrived at the treasury, i have turbo—charged our preparations, both at the treasury and helping across government to prepare for no deal, not because we wanted, but because we have to be prepared because we will be leaving on october the 31st. the chancellor has announced £2.1 billion to go specifically on no deal planning, on top of the £42 deal planning, on top of the £4.2 billion of brexit preparation money

already allocated when theresa may was in charge. from the money announced today, £3114 million will be spent on upgrading border and transport infrastructure. more border officers, 500 of them, will be recruited. another £434 million will be spent on making sure vital medicines are available, and £138 million will go on a public information campaign. exactly how much of the 2 billion announced todayis much of the 2 billion announced today is new on top of that 4 billion, i'm not sure, and certainly i don't think the government will spend it —— find it easily to spend that kind of money effectively in the three months we've got left until the 31st of october. indeed if some of that is spent on things which are only needed in the case of no deal and we don't end up with no deal, of course it will be wasted money. the money announced today comes despite boris johnson's suggestion that the chances of a no

deal exit from the eu are vanishingly small. the shadow chancellorjohn mcdonnell says preparing for a no deal scenario is an appalling waste of taxpayers money. and the watchdog which looks into parliament spending says it will look into whether today's cash announcement is value for money. we've got to call it out for what it is, it is bluster, megaphone diplomacy to brussels, spending taxpayers money like water to do so and we will be looking very closely to see what the taxpayer gets from this, if it isjust money, you have to prepare for no deal, if that is still on the table. that is a political choice, so it is responsible to prepare for the political choice but it is a lot of money and i am yet to be convinced this will deliver anything long—term and meaningful for the british taxpayer. with three months to go to the deadline, the new prime minister and his team are once again sending and his team are once again sending a clear message to brussels that they are serious about leaving on october 31, with or without a deal.

helena wilkinson, bbc news, westminster. our assistant political editor norman smith is in westminster — norman, another £2 million earmarked by the treasury, what difference will this make —— another £2 billion. the gunmen says we will be absolutely ready to leave on october 31 without a deal. in many ways more important than the money is the message, because actually it is quite hard to spend £2 billion in three months. i know you think, i could do that, but it is tricky because you have to identify suitable projects. if you look at last yea r‘s suitable projects. if you look at last year's no deal budget, the government only spent around two thirds of it because they couldn't get rid of the cash, or the staff, it takes three months for them to get their security clearance. —— border staff. the message is critical and it is already out there however, and to the eu it is, don't think we are kidding, don't think we are bluffing, we are deadly serious about leaving with no deal. to

business, it is, you've got to get your act ready, you've got to prepare for a no deal trading environment, and to all of us, well, the government is going to be spending £130 million on a public information campaign. that is the biggest public information campaign ever. compare it to david cameron's information campaign during the brexit referendum where he sent out leaflets to every household, total cost 9 million, and the message i guess the government want to send to all of us is a sort of reality check. no deal is no longer pie in the sky, it could be just around the corner. norman, thank you, norman smith, our assistant political editor. voting is taking place in the brecon and radnorshire by—election in mid wales, which was triggered by a recall petition. six candidates are standing. the polls will remain open until ten o'clock tonight and the result is expected in the early hours of tomorrow morning. police in madagascar say a british woman who fell to her death from a plane in mid—air opened the door herself. 19—year—old alana cutland, a student at cambridge university,

was on an internship on the island. let's go live to our africa correspondent, andrew harding injohannesburg — what more are the police saying? ben, good afternoon. the police in madagascar are confirming only one thing at present. they say they have concrete information that alana cutland did open the door of this small plane herself, just minutes after it had taken off from a remote airstrip in the north of madagascar. at the moment, they're not saying why they believe that she did that, and fell to her death. they are, though, speculating that it could have been suicide. they're also looking in, they say, to the possibility, and they stress this is only a possibility, that alana, 19—year—old cambridge student, as

you said, was on some sort of anti—malaria medicine, and that that could have affected her mental health. there is evidence that that kind of medication can lead to psychic episodes, though that again i must stress has not been confirmed. the police in madagascar and the authorities are still searching the area for her body. it has not yet been recovered. we do know that there were at least two other people on the flight with her, a pilot and another passenger, and clearly that will be a focus of their investigations. this happened last thursday, and the investigation, the authorities insist, is still under way. many thanks, andrew harding, our africa correspondent. a mobile phone app is speeding up the detection of a potentially fatal kidney condition in hospital patients. staff describe the technology as a "potential life—saver", providing diagnoses in minutes instead of hours. acute kidney injury is caused by serious health conditions, including sepsis, and affects one in five people admitted to hospital.

our health editor hugh pym reports. whether it's the pager or the fax machine, there is no shortage of old technology across the nhs. but are we on the verge of a big leap forward? one hospital which has trialled an app for staff says it's a potential life—saver. this is the kidney function that we were talking about. edgar is being treated for different health conditions and mary, a lead nurse specialist at london's royal free hospital, is able to show him the result of blood tests on her mobile. she is on the lookout for acute kidney injury — most often found in older patients. warning signs from blood tests can take hours to come back, but mary will get an alert on her phone within 15 minutes or so, if there is any cause for concern. health care is mobile and real—time. and this is the first device that's enabled me to see results in a mobile, real—time way. consultants involved in the project, which is being independently assessed, say it saves money on treatment, as well as helping patients.

potentially, it is life—saving. we need to gather a lot more information about this technology and we need to look at it over a longer timeframe. but it is certainly the case that some patients are very unwell, information comes to the correct team very quickly and then we can put measures in place to try to make that patient safe and to reverse the impact on their kidney function. the royal free's collaboration with deep mind was criticised by the information commission over the use of patient data. the commission said the hospital had now completed all the required actions. health analysts say there are exciting possibilities, but the nhs must take care in moving ahead with private—sector partnerships. the potential is to develop technology that can be used to detect health problems much more quickly. to do this we need to make sure that the surgeons can access the data they need, that patients can contribute towards decisions about what is an appropriate use of their data, and to make sure the nhs gets enough in return when it shares data

with external parties. the hope is that in the fast—paced world of the modern hospital, giving nurses and doctors information at their fingertips can make a big difference to the way patients are diagnosed and treated. and hugh pym is here — what's the long term potential for the nhs of this kind of technology? what we have just seen is one step forward. it is doctors and nurses being told that a patient has developed acute kidney injury much more quickly than before full what if it could be predicted using artificial intelligence? that is what the company involved, deep mind, they are part of google by the way, they want to develop it longer term, which could be really exciting. they have done a study in the united states using artificial intelligence, looking back retrospectively at military

vetera ns's retrospectively at military veterans's health retrospectively at military vetera ns's health records, retrospectively at military veterans's health records, and saying based on what they have seen from that data, how many of them did develop acute kidney injury, and the artificial intelligence did that todayis artificial intelligence did that today is quicker than was actually the case, so more rapid diagnosis is the case, so more rapid diagnosis is the goal here. but the nhs as we have heard does have to be careful when it does these partnerships with private sector organisations to ensure that patients benefit at least as much as the companies are benefiting by having access to this wealth of data which is there in the nhs. thank you very much. the son of the former al-qaeda leader osama bin laden is reported to have been killed in an airstrike. hamza bin laden had been seen as an emerging figurehead for the group. cbs correspondent tom hanson is in new york. what can you tell us about what happened ? this is a story shrouded in mystery. the united states had a role in the operation that killed the younger

hamza bin laden but details of where he died are unknown. he was killed ina military he died are unknown. he was killed in a military operation eight years after the death of his father and according to the official, the soon—to—be 30—year—old, in line to head up al-qaeda, was not the target of the operation and was not known to be at that location. it was not until some time later officials say, us intelligence monitored conversations among members of al-qaeda as to whether they should keep the death secret or celebrate him asa keep the death secret or celebrate him as a martyr so unclear where the operation took place although hamza bin laden was believed to be in either pakistan or afghanistan and yesterday president trump brushed aside questions about the operation. he was asked if he had intelligence the son have been killed and said he did not want to comment and he thanked reporters for asking the question and brushed off the rest of the questions. the raid in 2011 that

killed osama bin laden made clear he was grooming hamza bin laden to take over. there was a reward offered leading to his capture or death but the white house is not saying if it is preparing an announcement on the death so they are being tight—lipped about it. thank you. our top story this lunchtime. the bank of england cuts its forecasts for uk growth over the next two years and warns that a no—deal brexit could hit the economy further. and coming up, the ashes are under way in birmingham. this may be cricket's great marathon but england have begun with a sprint. coming up on bbc news, england's charley hull has got off to a good start on the first day of the women's british open. she is in contention for the lead at her home course of woburn.

negotiating teams from the us and china have held talks to try to end their trade war. they've agreed to meet again in september. the two countries have imposed a series of tit—for—tat tariffs on each other‘s goods, affecting trade worth hundreds of billions of dollars. in the united states, there are fears those high import taxes will force up prices and hurt some of the worst off families as chris buckler reports from maryland. right across rural america, there are times where people are struggling to put food on their tables. and families who have no choice but to put their faith in the goodwill of neighbours and strangers. that one. yes, fresh bread! tabatha's table is a food bank in western maryland. many who come here rely on what's handed out to feed

not just themselves. .. because the grandkids stay at my house most of the time. but also those who depend on them. you still want to be able to give them breakfast, lunch and dinner. and when you can't, and the child is telling you they are still hungry, that hurts. that hurts a lot, because that's the part that makes me cry. that i can't give to them. i've done, and as a single parent, i've done without so that my kids would have. it's just hard. it's just hard and they are making it harder. america's economy is doing well. that's not always obvious in places like smithsburg. and a recent report warned that families should expect to pay another $800 a year on everyday items, because of tariffs on products from china. and even more if they are extended to goods from mexico. president trump has repeatedly claimed that it is the countries who will pay for these import taxes, but that is simply not true,

and members of his administration have been forced to admit that it is american companies who will pay the tariffs and they are likely to pass the cost on to their consumers. this is just one of the warehouses for the maryland food bank. its size gives a sense of their need. and while millions on a low income also get government help, through a food stamp programme known as snap, the trump administration is looking at changing the way poverty is measured, which would reduce access to that support. that small change really affects thousands of families, thousands of individuals and, ultimately, thousands of families who are now no longer going to be eligible for some assistance. they now have to find some other way to feed their families. as it is, in the state of maryland alone, there is said to be more than 650,000 people who don't know where their next nutritious meal is coming from. most of our clients were either a pay cheque away from going under or disaster has hit their family.

the need is great. and the danger for mr trump is that his policies and trade wars abroad could have an effect on fortunes at home after american home. give me some love. i appreciate everything. god bless you. chris buckler, bbc news, smithsburg in maryland. well, gary cohn was donald trump's top economic advisor in the white house until he resigned after the president ignored his advice and announced tariffs on steel and aluminium imports. mr cohn believes the biggest loser in the trade war with china is the united states itself. and he told our north america editor jon sopel the chinese authorities have used the conflict to their advantage. i think the trade war with the united states was a very convenient excuse for the chinese to slow down their economy, when they needed to slow down an overheated economy, where prices and real estate

prices and everything were getting out of hand. and i think president trump provided that excuse for the chinese. so i think the chinese economy is going to slow down with or without a trade war. but in the us, is having a real impact already, isn't it? but in the us, it's having a real impact already, isn't it? i mean, if you are a farmer growing soybeans in north dakota and you are trying to export them to china, life is got tough for you. in the farming community it is having a dramatic impact. in the capital investment part of the us economy, it is having a dramatic impact. in the service side of the economy, it is not having nearly as big an impact because tariffs don't affect them. that is what you are seeing. you are seeing a very interesting bifurcation of the united states economy. those things that are manufactured and consumed here in the united states. those things that are imported and those things that take a long term to build. and they are sort of being divided. so you take the automobile industry in the united states, its suffering. it's suffering because tariffs are hurting that industry.

but people are spending a lot of money by going out and eating and a lot of the restaurants in the united states are doing very well, because we grow our own food and we don't have to import the food. and, really, the biggest cost to the restaurant industry is labour. so we have labour here in the united states, so people are willing to go out and spend that money. the emergency services are urging people to take extra care after days of heavy rain caused severe flooding in the north of england. flood warnings are still in place across yorkshire and the north west of england. 0ur correspondent fiona lamdin has been to a farm in north yorkshire that was damaged by an overflowing river. i'm at a hill farm just outside reeth, and you would be forgiven in thinking i'm standing next to a river bed, but if you'd been here on tuesday morning, this was still a field, with sheep grazing on it. but as you can see, the boulders have come through, the horsebox, the bales, literally the trees have been picked up and taken through this farm. it's taken out all the walls.

there are now no walls for the remaining sheep to be here, and the road, the tarmac has been completely destroyed. we'rejust coming over to doug. you've been a farmer here all your life, it's been in your family for many generations. what's it like? just utter devastation, i have never seen anything like it ever, you know, and i hope we never will again. it's been unbelievable. give us an idea of how much you've lost. in the background, i can see people retrieving the hay bales. we've lost 250, 300 bales, and at least 80 sheep, many miles of walling and much debris across the fields, so there's a huge amount of work, and it's going to take many months and years to get it back to what it should be like. as you can see behind me, the work has already started. they've been here early, trying to make this farm look like it used to at the start of the week.

there has been a significant increase in the number of older children going into care in england over the past five years. a report by the children's commissioner found that the rise is putting a strain on services. it said teenagers have much more complex needs and were more likely to be vulnerable to sexual exploitation, gangs, trafficking and drug misuse. the sale of single—use plastic bags in england has fallen dramatically since a five—pence charge was introduced four years ago. government figures suggest that the seven biggest retailers, including asda, sainsbury‘s, and waitrose, sold 90% fewer plastic bags than in 2015. they're the scourge of our streets and often of our oceans. trillions of plastic bags used globally every year. now new data for england shows that single plastic bag use has dropped significantly since 2015. the information relates to england's

seven major retailers — asda, marks & spencer, morrisons, sainsbury‘s, the co—op, tesco and waitrose. they've recorded a staggering reduction of 90% since the 5p charge was introduced. and in the last year alone, there's been a 47% decrease in single—bag use. that means the average person now buysjust ten single—use plastic bags a year, compared to 140 five years ago. plastic bag use has also dropped in scotland and the holyrood government is now pushing ahead with a deposit return scheme for some plastic and glass bottles and cans. some critics say ditching single—use plastic bags means shifting plastic bags means switching to heavy—duty bags for life, which can often contain more plastic. but at a time when consumers are being urged to go green, this is one issue that campaigners will probably feel has been all wrapped up. john mcmanus, bbc news.

england's bid to regain the ashes from australia began this morning at edgbaston. england haven't lost a home ashes series since 2001. aur sports correspondent joe wilson has been watching the opening salvos. england's fast bowlers have already made inroads. yes, yesterday i put it tojoe root that maybe this year the ashes did not mean so much considering england have won the cricket world cup. he smiled a way that suggestion, he knows english cricket captains are defined by what happens against australia in the ashes and in this instalment, yes, england made a flying start. a six—week sporting whirlwind begins at the centre of english cricket, geographically successfully. birmingham's ashes memories are the inspiration, the reason why this series starts here. since 2001, whenever england have played australia on this ground, they have not lost.

it is why this image welcomed australia back to the ashes. it took 18 minutes for this match to get momentous. david warner had made two. the umpire said he was out, lbw. stuart broad had struck and how the crowd loved it. those bits of yellow held aloft are sandpaper, a reminder in case he had forgotten, that david warner was one of australia's players banned for ball tampering. as soon as warner reached the changing room, a replay suggested if he reviewed the decision, technology would have proved he wasn't out. too late. it was up to the others now. not cameron bancroft. broad again. 17-2. another of the sandpaper men gone, replaced by the third. have a listen to the reception for steve smith. booing. there were australians in the crowd, with various approaches to shaving. that's a famous former player merv hughes and his private army, sat still. in the middle, it kept moving. usman khawaja, did he hit that?

england were convinced, it used the review which proved it. third wicket of the morning and one for chris woakes, birmingham's poster boy. bearin bear in mind australia did win the toss this morning and chose to bat first. before the session ended they staged a recovery and will resume on 83-3. staged a recovery and will resume on 83—3. england will have to work hard to get rid of steve smith in particular, but of course, in a test match, in the ashes, that is exactly how it should be. thank you. the world's top female golfers have gathered for the opening day of the women's british open at woburn. last year's winner, england's georgia hall, is looking to defend her title. jo currie has been watching. they say practice makes perfect, but the world's top female golfers haven't had much time to hone their skills ahead of this yea r‘s british open, with it falling just one week after the last major. world number two, sung—hyun park,

though, showed early on that the short turnaround hadn't affected her game, setting a blistering pace to finish the day five under—par. but hot on her heels was charley hull, leading the british charge and playing on her home course. she made her local knowledge count as she completed a hat—trick of birdies to shoot up the leaderboard. perhaps this could be her year, following in the footsteps of another brit. 12 months ago, georgia hall was celebrating winning her maiden major title when she claimed the british open, but backing up that performance has proved difficult for the defending champion and she has now missed the cut in four of her last eight tournaments. this, then, the perfect opportunity to rediscover her form. defending champion, georgia hall. and hall got off to an encouraging start. the shot of the morning belonged to the usa'sjennifer kupcho with this monster putt at 13.