this is the business briefing. i'm ben bland. from financial minnow to economic powerhouse in 70 years. we look at the chinese economy — past, present and future. and — as the people's republic marks this significant milestone, we look at the challenges faced by the country's carmakers. and on the markets... hong kong is closed for the rest of the week for the celebrations. but here is the picture from the all ordinaries in australia and how the dow closed overnight on wall street.

let us talk about that big celebration. china is marking its 70th anniversary and with it one of the most extraordinary and rapid economic transformations in history. from a relative financial minnow, the communist state has grown to become the world's second biggest economy. as you can see from this graph, chinese economic expansion accelerated dramatically in the 1990s as a result of mass privatisations, and the opening up of the country but —— to foreign investment. but after decades of super charged growth the asian powerhouse only grew by 6.2% year—on—year in the second quarter — a far cry from the 14% growth of the 90's. but that all sounds worse than it is —

china has, to some degree, being intentionally slowing its economy as it moves away from dependency on investment towards more consumer—driven growth. but there is a problem. the china—us trade war. so far the us has imposed tariffs on more than $360 billion of chinese goods, and china has retaliated with tariffs on more than $110bn of us products, all of which could knock china's economic miracle off course. mark schaub, international partner at the asia—based law firm king & wood mallesonsjoins me now. what china has achieved in 70 years is really economically quite remarkable, isn't it? it really kicked off about 30 years ago so most of that spectacular growth started, like you said, in the early 19905. that rate, still over 696, it isa 19905. that rate, still over 696, it is a figure that will be the envy of

many developed western economies who could get nowhere near that currently. but it is still a lot lower than china has gotten used to in recent decades. back in 1993 the highest rate of growth was 1a%, like you mentioned. but nowadays, the base of the economy is so much larger, it would be hard to maintain that kind of momentum so i think china doesn't expect to see those kinds of growth rates. i think it is target rate is between six and 7%. how problematic is the trade war for china right now? i think it is pretty problematic, i think people would like to go away, if possible but it isn't within the remit of the chinese authorities, it is very much coming from the american side. mentioned tariffs. i think tariffs smaller problem. i think the american government might be seeking to decouple its economy from the chinese economy and this may make

things more difficult in the short term for china. what you think will be the key to china's continued economic growth for say the next 70 yea rs 7 economic growth for say the next 70 years? is it opening up to more foreign investment? is it making it easierforforeign firms foreign investment? is it making it easier for foreign firms to do business in china? what do you think is crucial for them to ensure that the economic growth continues?” think in the early 90s when this real growth spurt started, it was mostly about foreign investment and export—oriented economy. i think now it is impossible to continue that kind of growth so even though manufacturing is still important, i think the chinese are really looking to harness their immense single markets they have within their country and i think they are also looking to develop services and innovative technical advanced manufacturing and going into new areas, like the auto industry, people talk about it are slowing down but you see a lot under the surface in areas like autonomous

ca i’s surface in areas like autonomous cars and new energy vehicles so i think china is trying to position itself to be the manufacture of the future, not of the past. thank you very much, for now. mark mentioned automakers. well, china has been the biggest contributor to global growth in recent years, dominating key markets, including autos. but the tide has turned. there are now signs of distress in an economy that's motored for more than a decade, with demand for new cars falling for the last year. robin brant reports from shanghai. this is china's most famous car. it tra nslates this is china's most famous car. it translates to red flag. filled in the decade of the first people's republic, it has carried everyone from mao zedong to its current leader xi jinping. from mao zedong to its current leader xijinping. in the decades between this and this, the latest met model, china has become the world ‘s biggest car market. but has that moment passed ?

world ‘s biggest car market. but has that moment passed? it is a mid week afternoon and they are thinking about buying that they do not want something new. translation: i am still walking around. i haven't decided yet. and there is plenty to see here in one of china's guest second hand car markets. he is not your average car salesman. ten years ago, this has expanded because chinese trust cars that have been owned before and then of course there is the price. translation: make in recent years, more people buy secondhand cars, maybe because the business market is not growing or even declining. you have to pay purchased tax, too, for a new car but not for used ones. this place is a microcosm of where chinese economy stands as it marks

this significant birthday. some people have come here because they have had a tough year for business and they are tightening their belt but for others, it is the opposite, they are investing in a premium car to in —— impress new clients but no—one is buying a new car. to in —— impress new clients but no-one is buying a new car. you don't have people addicted to owning ca i’s don't have people addicted to owning cars or buying cars for multiple generations of time. it has been a relatively recent phenomenon and people are starting to realise that mobility needs can be satisfied through other methods rather than buying a new car. you can buy a used car which is available in increasing supply or you can book a car with your mobile phone. china is at the heart of these revolutionary changes in how we transport ourselves around. next to the rice fields on the edge of shanghai, tesla is building its first factory outside the us. timing is not great. the hungerfor new the us. timing is not great. the hunger for new cars is still falling but china is determined to build for a future with far more electric vehicles on its roads.

to japan now where big manufacturers' business confidence fell to a six—year low in the july—september quarter. that's according to the influencial tankan survey. let's go to our asia business hub where shara njit leyl is following the story. was this expected? to some extent it was, and it is really all due to what you are talking about with your guests a little earlier and that is the us china trade war. it has been blamed for the worsening global economy which is taking a heavy toll on an export reliant place like japan. we know that the quarterly survey is of some 10,000 japanese firms and shows how confident they are about the future and as you say, they don't appear to be confident at all because it shows business confidence is down at a six year low for thejuly — confidence is down at a six year low for the july — september quarter. economists have been warning about the us— china trade frictions, how it is forcing manufacturers injapan and elsewhere to refrain from

actively investing. we also have the strongerjapanese actively investing. we also have the stronger japanese currency against the dollar which is weighing on business sentiment so it couldn't have been a worse time for the japanese government to unveil a rise in the sales tax today from 8% to io%. in the sales tax today from 8% to 10%. economists say that this long planned sales tax hike could weigh on growth at a time when the economy is not looking so resilient and it could also take a toll on consumer demand and slow sales in a country where wages have made —— remained stag na nt where wages have made —— remained stagnant for years. now let's brief you on some other business stories. south korea's annual inflation fell below zero for the first time on record in september. the country's consumer price index slid 0.4% in september from a year earlier, posting the first negative annual rate since data releases began in 1965. that was due to a plunge in farm products prices coupled with weak consumer demand.

household appliances will become easier to repair thanks to new standards being adopted across the european union. from 2021, firms will have to make appliances longer—lasting, and they will have to supply spare parts for machines for up to 10 yea rs. the rules apply to lighting, washing machines, dishwashers and fridges. that's it for the business briefing this hour — but before we go, here are the markets. asian markets mostly rose tuesday after wall street finished a volatile quarter on a positive note. meanwhile china began a week—long break to celebrate the 70th birthday of the people's republic. that is where we believe this edition the business briefing.

people can continue to eat red meat, sausages and bacon — according to a new study which claims there's little evidence they increase the risk of cancer or heart disease. public health experts warn the findings risk undermining sensible eating advice. here's our medical correspondent fergus walsh. there have been repeated studies linking red and especially processed meat with heart disease and cancer. the current guidance from the government devises —— advises people to eat no more than 70g government devises —— advises people to eat no more than 70 g of red and processed me today, equivalent to two rashers of bacon or 1.5 pork sausages. now a team of international experts have reviewed

existing data and found only weak evidence that it is worth trying to cut back. it is worth stressing that they did not find there was no evidence of harm but simply that it was very weak. the argument here is not so much about the evidence but how it is interpreted. in 2015, the world health organization said eating 50 g of processed meat a day, less tha n eating 50 g of processed meat a day, less than two slices of bacon, increased the chances of getting bowel cancer by 18%. surprisingly, perhaps, the current research has come to roughly the same conclusion. in the uk, six out of every 100 people will guard bowel cancer at some point. if we all ate and extra bacon a day, for the rest of our lives, one more person per 100 would get bowel cancer. so cutting out the number of burgers or bacon you eat, it may make very little difference to your personal risk of getting

bowel cancer but it could mean preventing thousands of cases per year if you look across the board. they did not look at environmental impact or animal welfare. fergus walsh, bbc news. coming up at six o'clock on breakfast dan walker and louise minchin will have all the day's news, business and sport. that is coming up. this is the briefing from bbc news. the latest headlines: china is celebrating 70 years since the communist party came to power with a military parade in tiananmen square in the centre of beijing. britain's prime minister boris johnson's proposed new brexit deal has been drawn up — and the legal text of it will be made public in the next few days. now it's time to look at the stories that are making the headlines in the media across the world. the south china morning post leads with china's 70th anniversary of communist party rule, saying the celebrations will signal

a new chapter under president xijinping's leadership. but, the japan times reports that hong kong is on edge regarding the anniversary events, saying that authorities are eager to avoid scenes that could embarrass the central government in beijing. borisjohnson and his brexit plans dominate the uk papers. the telegraph says the prime minister will reveal his brexit plan in more detail to eu leaders within the next 26 hours. the i newspaper reports on a different angle — saying that labour, the liberal democrats and snp are discussing formal plans to prevent a no—deal brexit. away from brexit, the financial times has the story the economy. and the sun's front page says that new research shows that the bacon—loving british people can now eat it safely — there had been fears it could lead

to heart disease or cancer. a controversial study we will get into that in little more detail in the the idea that china could be

entering a new era of president xi jinping's leadership, it's worth looking back on the kind of economic miracle that it has undergone in the