growing in february, but only just. also coming up, the tepid twenties. the world risks a decade of weak economic growth, says the head of the imf. but she warns central bankers not to be pressured into cutting the cost of borrowing too early. where necessary, policymakers must resist coles for premature rate cuts. plus, monster success. baldur�*s gate 3 sweeps the board at the industry baftas, with five wins including best game. but the industry faces its toughest level yet. and, backing the right horse. as the runners and riders gear up for the uk's most famous race meeting, we take a look at the muti—million pound finances of the grand national.

hello and welcome. we start here in the uk, where in the next hour or so we could find out if the economy is on track to pull itself out of, and return to growth. the uk economy shrank betweenjuly and september last year, and again between october and november, two quarters in a row of negative growth is commonly defined as a recession. but injanuary of this year the economy grew, just about, by o.2%. according to a poll of economists, that growth may have continued in february — but byjust 0.1%. we get those official figures

at 7am here in london. robert wood is chief uk economist at pantheon macroeconomics. what are your expectations? i'm expecting gdp to be unchanged in february. it could edge up very slightly at 0.1%. either way, the uk economy is gradually continuing to recover from last year �*s recession. it was quite a warm february, is likely people did not turn the heating on quite as much as non— which might be one thing that slows growth slightly. the bigger picture here if you step backjust on the debris that alone is the uk gradually continuing to crawl out of recession as households or consumers spending power improves with inflation coming down, getting to spend a bit more in the shops which is pushing up growth. the

more in the shops which is -aushin u- urowth. u, , pushing up growth. the comments that came from _ pushing up growth. the comments that came from the _ pushing up growth. the comments that came from the head _ pushing up growth. the comments that came from the head of- pushing up growth. the comments that came from the head of the - that came from the head of the imf have had an impact on markets around the world and indeed the ftse closed lower as well. we will be discussing the imf in a moment but in terms of an intervention, what do you make of what she had to say? i make of what she had to say? i think it is right the central banks around the world had taken interest rates to much higher levels than anyone would have expected a couple of years ago, to fight inflation. it is important they don't stop at the last minute and throw away that progress. that said, in the uk we are close to the end of the period. the bank of england can begin to lower interest rates in the next three months or so. inflation is dropping sharply, down

sharply already, it will drop below the bank of england 2% inflation target within the next few months. which should give it broom to begin lowering interest rates.— interest rates. how much pressure _ interest rates. how much pressure do _ interest rates. how much pressure do you - interest rates. how much pressure do you think - interest rates. how much l pressure do you think there interest rates. how much - pressure do you think there is on the bank of england to cut interest rates? with local elections coming up and a general election later this year, i suspect it was a lot of political pressure on the bank of england to lower interest rates. economic pressure is not as large as we started to date, uk economy is returning to growth already. as it dragged itself out, household spending power is beginning to improve. inflation still above the 2% inflation target, crucially the domestically generated parts of those inflations which the nbc has control over are even higher. so mrs inflation is above 6% currently. it will continue to slow for that the bank of england still has work to do here. we believe about

hour, thank you. —— will leave it there for now. with the uk economy in such a weak state, many are calling on the bank of england to cut the cost of borrowing. it's a debate that could become increasingly politicised ahead of an expected election later this year. but the head of the international monetary fund has weighed into the debate, saying that central banks must resist pressure for early rate cuts, until inflation has been beaten. kristalina georgieva also warned of the danger of what she called, the tepid twenties, a decade of sluggish economic growth. the bbc�*s michelle fleury has more. with interest rates in many richer countries now at their highest levels in years, the head of the imf, kristalina georgieva, urged caution when it comes to cutting interest rates. where necessary, policymakers must resist calls for premature interest rate cuts. her comments come a day after us data showed a surprise increase in consumer inflation.

but she also warned that waiting too long could chill economic activity, saying debt is up and the global economy faced a decade of weak growth, which she labelled the �*tepid 20s'. we are, indeed, heading for the tepid 20s. a sluggish and disappointing decade. mr georgieva's comments come as the international monetary fund and its fellow lending agency, the world bank, prepares to host their spring meeting next week in washington, where finance ministers, central bankers and policymakers from around the world will discuss the global economy's most pressing issues. the annual gathering takes place as several conflicts threaten global financial stability, including russia's invasion of ukraine and the war between hamas and israel in gaza. let's talk more about this with russ mould, investment director at aj bell here in the uk. good morning. iwant

good morning. i want to ask very quickly, everybody has been quite surprised at what we saw in the us and those figures coming out. what i got balls on how sticky inflation is at the moment? it how sticky inflation is at the moment?— moment? it is proving deceptively _ moment? it is proving deceptively tricky. - moment? it is provingi deceptively tricky. the moment? it is proving - deceptively tricky. the latter federal reserve created an index to try and measure that, pointing up around 70% of the components of american inflation do not change that often. because men, medical care, insurance, season tickets, they don't change regularly and it is saying that percentage in american inflation index is growing at 4.4% year—on—year, hotter than the headline rate of 3.5. something that is exercising economist and policymakers right now. fix, economist and policymakers right nova— economist and policymakers riuhtnow.�* ., ., ., ., i, , ., right now. a lot of analysis at the moment _ right now. a lot of analysis at the moment for _ right now. a lot of analysis at the moment for what - right now. a lot of analysis at the moment for what the - right now. a lot of analysis at the moment for what the imf right now. a lot of analysis at - the moment for what the imf had had to say. she has been warning central banks to remain independent. we are expecting an announcement from the ecb. how much pressure do you think there is on central banks? was big to our guest and he was

talking to the uk position, what about europe? policymakers will not be human _ what about europe? policymakers will not be human if— what about europe? policymakers will not be human if they - what about europe? policymakers will not be human if they did - will not be human if they did not feel so many pressures from the interest of others. we have some elections in the uk, us and in europe this year and policymakers at one point i look at the keep inflation under control but don't want to squeeze hard and said the economy into recession. then you have policy and we are only one year on major banking crisis 134 big banks fell over. policymakers will be thinking about as well, plus record amounts of government debt, interest bills on that are going up and that in itself crippled economic growth. again, another consideration to think about. we again, another consideration to think about-— think about. we have the imf forecaster— think about. we have the imf forecaster due _ think about. we have the imf forecaster due to _ think about. we have the imf forecaster due to come - think about. we have the imf forecaster due to come out i think about. we have the imf i forecaster due to come out soon i believe. the advanced economies i having to hold steady. low income economies are the hardest hit by emotion economies have done fairly well. we're talking the likes

of india and indonesia, what are they doing? we of india and indonesia, what are they doing?— of india and indonesia, what are they doing? we have the world economic _ are they doing? we have the world economic outlook - are they doing? we have the i world economic outlook update from the imf and boil back next week so we will see how their economic growth and inflation forecast change. one thing emerging economies did particularly well this time as they were quicker to move than their western counterparts when it came to tackling inflation. as a result, they have been able to start cutting interest rates earlier than the major western central banks. one thing they definitely have right in addition they have demographics on their side, a growing population, a more youthful population and generally have lower debt. a government level. they have more scope to invest as well. there were some options that economist could take on board and some of those were to speed up and some of those were to speed up green and digital transition. also mentioned ai but that will also be responsible forjob

but that will also be responsible for job losses. let's speak to the transition element of this. is there investment there? are people thinking about this? the? investment there? are people thinking about this? they very definitely are _ thinking about this? they very definitely are into _ thinking about this? they very definitely are into anything - definitely are into anything the challenges where does the money come from? given record levels of debt. in many west economies, equally the americans in particular are not pressing ahead with the chips and the inflation reduction act, investing heavily in technology and in renewable energy. the rf report and his comets would suggest they think america is taking a productivity lead in the west as a result of that. those investments are being put in. the challenge with the green revolution annual energy is ensuring we get an equally reliable and cost—effective power source as we have currently from hydrocarbons because the cost of the my mark watt i am moving to a less efficient energy source in the short term could be a challenge to growth and inflation. there is a balancing act there. this is a balancing act there. as ever, is a balancing act there. as ever. a _ is a balancing act there. as ever, a pleasure. thank you

very much. let's turn to the banking industry now, because shares of us banking giant, morgan stanley, fell almost 5% on thursday, on reports it is facing a wide ranging investigation by us authorities. according to the wall streetjournal, the financial markets, the securities and exchange commission, as well as several treasury departments, are looking into morgan stanley's wealth management division. the report says regulators are assessing whether the bank has been doing enough to investigate prospective clients, and the sources of their wealth, in case there is a risk of money laundering. let's speak to frances, who is an independent banking analyst. good morning to you. what do we know? that good morning to you. what do we know? �* ., ., , know? at the moment we only know? at the moment we only know what _ know? at the moment we only know what the _ know? at the moment we only know what the wall _ know? at the moment we only know what the wall street - know what the wall street journal has taught us. what it is about is the banks and anti—

money laundering requirements, they are required to do proper investigations into their client, prospective clients. who they are, what they do, what their sources of wealth are. there can be quite severely censured and fine. that is what is going on here. how tough our regulations in the us? i how tough our regulations in the us? 4' , how tough our regulations in the us? ~ , ., ., , the us? i think they are fairly tou~h. the us? i think they are fairly tough. historically _ the us? i think they are fairly tough. historically they - the us? i think they are fairly tough. historically they have | tough. historically they have tended to be tougher on foreign banks than their own banks. it is interesting. we'll have to see what kind of action is taken against morgan stanley if anything. in the past the fires have been in the orders of billions of dollars for some banks. they miss the hsbc are mexican drug running and also for sanctions broken. there have been quite substantial fines for money—laundering as well. fora bank fines for money—laundering as

well. for a bank the size of morgan stanley, if they do find there are serious breaches. i would be looking at a fine of that kind of order. morgan stanley is a bit of a darling of the industry. it is settle a case at the beginning of the year. case at the beginning of the ear. �* ,., case at the beginning of the ear. �* . case at the beginning of the ear. ~ ., , ., , year. also warning the profits would fall _ year. also warning the profits would fall short. _ year. also warning the profits would fall short. do _ year. also warning the profits would fall short. do you - year. also warning the profits would fall short. do you thinkj would fall short. do you think a golden period is dying down? i think banks generally are entering a more difficult period than they have enjoyed for the last year or so. we are beginning to see pressure for rate cuts now. we certainly are not looking at rate rises unless something dramatic happens to inflation. they are under pressure to pass on the high interest rates we now have two savers which they were not doing and therefore had a bit of a bonanza on net interest margin for a while. they have credit losses rising. because

of the cost of living squeeze. although i think big banks, probably will do quite well in the current training season. i'm expecting a lot more fallout among medium—sized banks and in america we have the rumbling of the commercial real estate exposures that brought down at the bank last year and that looks like it is going to potentially get worse. thank you very much indeed. let's get some of the day's other news now. the price of gold has hit a new record high, above $2,379 per ounce. gold is traditionally seen as a hedge against inflation, and a safe haven in times of global turmoil. it has risen more than 14% so far this year, amid ongoing conflict in ukraine and gaza. singapore's economy has missed growth forecasts despite a surge in tourism. the economy grew 2.7% year on year in the first quarter with the services sector boosted by a

50% increase in the number of tourists, thanks in part to concerts from taylor swift and coldplay. but growth in the manufacturing sector slowed to 0.8% year—on—year, down from 1.4% in the previous quarter. monster success. baldur�*s gate 3 sweeps the board at the industry baftas, with five wins including best game. but the industry faces its toughest level yet. around the world and across the uk. this is bbc news.

let's go to asia now, and trade tensions between china and the us. american airlines and aviation unions are urging the biden administration not to approve any more flights by chinese airlines into the us, citing china's ongoing anti—competitive policies.

suranjana tewari is looking at this in singapore. good morning. suranjana, what is the us aviation industry complaining about? the background to this is back in february the us transportation department of approval for chinese passenger airlines to boost weekly round—trip us flights to 50, from the current 35. in response, airlines for america, a trade group representing airlines as well as pilots and flight attendant unions wrote a letter saying chinese airlines are at an advantage because they have access to russian aerospace while us carriers do not. they stopped flowing through the at the start of russia's invasion of ukraine in march 2022. once between china and the united states became a

point of contention during the covid 19 pandemic. the number of flights is far below the 150 flights that were allowed before the covid—19 pandemic. us sailors have expressed concern about the rapid pace of increasing flights. this is really about criticism within the us that chinese carriers operate roots and an anti—competitive commercial advantage, although critics also say it is unsafe for american passengers to fly through russian aerospace with the war going on. china is likely to say this is simply reinstating flights that were there before the pandemic. the route will be very important for chinese business. beijing will be keen to get those planes back in the air. thank ou. now to an event we told you about in yesterday's

program, britain's oscars for the games industry, the bafta games awards. baldur�*s gate 3, from the belgian developer, larian studios, swept the board at the ceremony here in central london, with five wins including best game. i think they are still celebrating. 2023 is being hailed as the best ever in creative terms for the games industry, which is now a global market worth an estimated quarter of a trillion dollars. but the business is also having to make thousands ofjob cuts, after overexpanding during the pandemic. our technology reporter, marc cieslak, was at the event last night. this is what it's all about — a bafta golden mask. tonight's winners will be taking home a slightly smaller version of one of these, but these awards that the industry is more than an economic force, and the uk has always played a giant role in games development. in a recent bafta poll, lara croft, made famous by the tomb raider games, was voted most iconic video game character of all time.

i caught up with the co—founder of the company behind lara, sir ian livingston, to talk about her legacy in the state of the gaming industry. of course, it was developed in derby in the mid 1990s and it became a phenomenon, and it has survived the test of time, and lara croft is significant today as she ever was, and long may she continue. i think a lot of people think games are developed in the uk, not as much as in the united states orjapan or china, but the uk is at the forefront of all great game development. sticking with the uk theme, winner of the best british game was indie puzzler viewfinder from sleepy owl studios. they also took on the award for new intellectual property. slightly speechless, but very happy and very grateful and chuffed, emotional! we really appreciate being validated by our peers,

by the people in the industry. baldur's gate 3... but the big prize of the night, best game, went to baldur's gate 3. based on the dungeons & dragons table—top role—playing games, baldur's gate cleaned up, racking up five awards in total. the games industry has been rocked by recentjob losses, but tonight the developers and performers in this room are focused on celebrating an industry that is far from meeting its end—of—level boss. finally, to the world of horse racing, and what is seen by many as the highlight of the uk racing calendar. the grand national steeplechase gets under way at 4pm on saturday, tomorrow, at aintree racecourse near liverpool in northern england. a million in prize money is at stake. the winning owner, trainer, jockey and stable will split more than half a million

between them. nick craven is a director of weatherbys, the sole banker for the racing industry, they distribute the prize money for the grand national. hello and welcome to the programme. how is it shaping up this year? programme. how is it shaping up this ear? , ., , programme. how is it shaping up this ear? , . this year? everyone is excited as they normally _ this year? everyone is excited as they normally are. - this year? everyone is excited as they normally are. one - this year? everyone is excited as they normally are. one of. as they normally are. one of the biggest events in the sporting calendar as a whole. the nation as a whole get very excited about the grand national. it excited about the grand national.— excited about the grand national. , . , , national. it is an expensive sort, national. it is an expensive sport. isn't _ national. it is an expensive sport, isn't it? _ national. it is an expensive sport, isn't it? the - national. it is an expensive sport, isn't it? the horses. national. it is an expensive i sport, isn't it? the horses are expensive, the upkeep is expensive, the upkeep is expensive, but what is the attraction?— expensive, but what is the attraction? ., ., , attraction? for some owners, it is a business- — attraction? for some owners, it is a business. they _ attraction? for some owners, it is a business. they have - attraction? for some owners, it is a business. they have vested j is a business. they have vested interest in the business, for some it is a leisure proceed. the cost of a horse can vary

enormously. they can be some very expensive horses out there. there was a sale after racing yesterday and it was a top that £300,000. as well as having exposed to forces, you can be fine horses for 5000 or £10,000, much less, particular popular these days is the opportunity for owners to get involved in a fractional way partnerships and syndicates. there are many different ways for people to enjoy their ownership in horse racing. hose ownership in horse racing. how much is the _ ownership in horse racing. how much is the grand _ ownership in horse racing. how much is the grand national worth to liverpool �*s economy? many millions of pounds in terms of the whole industry into the government and economic impact is 4.1 million but many millions into liverpool. notjust the event itself but everything that goes on around the grand national as well, the whole week, a three—day meeting, started yesterday and finishes

tomorrow. the actual impact of the economy and importance of the economy and importance of the event is very significant. i was the you are the sole banker for this industry. i was the you are the sole bankerfor this industry. —— banker for this industry. —— obviously. bankerfor this industry. —— obviously. in terms of investment, what is your typical investment for a horse and the lifespan you would expect from that horse? in terms of banking, we look after the taking interest of many areas. as you just said, we distribute the prize money for the race. the layout can be very different. but horses tend to be much more expensive and valuable than grand national horse would be but you can gain from the highest price yearly on resources destined for a flat racing was 2 million guineas last year. you can be fine horses competitively priced literally a £10,000.

someone is lucky even at that level. i someone is lucky even at that level. , , level. i suppose if you put them out _ level. i suppose if you put them out to _ level. i suppose if you put them out to study, - level. i suppose if you put them out to study, you i level. i suppose if you put i them out to study, you keep earning. them out to study, you keep earninu. , .,, earning. exactly. people even if they are _ earning. exactly. people even if they are not _ earning. exactly. people even if they are not making - earning. exactly. people even if they are not making money| if they are not making money out of their horseracing interest, they like to do as well as they possibly can with a competitive force and a horse that runs well. particularly, flat, there is potential there are, not to be on sale value of are, not to be on sale value of a well performed horse but as you suggested, it really potential of a billy is a broodmare or a cold becomes a stallion. some valuable stallions.— stallion. some valuable stallions. . ~' , . hope it goes well over this weekend. you are watching bbc news, back in the moment. hello there. we still had the same

southwesterly breeze on thursday but more sunshine led to a warmer day. the highest temperature in the sunshine was measured in norfolk with temperatures reaching 20 degrees. in northern ireland whilst it did cloud over later on and we got some rain as well, temperatures here reached 18 celsius — the warmest it's been in northern ireland so far this year. now, this is the temperature anomaly map. the red colour�*s showing that it's warmer than average across the whole of the uk. we'll get similar temperatures again on friday but then, over the weekend, it gets cooler from the northwest. that cooler weather arrives in the southeast by sunday. now, heading into early friday, we've got some sunshine to begin with in scotland. we've got these showery bursts of rain coming back into northern ireland, into cumbria and showers pushing into scotland. for england and wales, though, the cloud should be breaking up. we'll get more sunshine more widely, although some western coasts could stay a bit grey and cloudy. but in the sunshine, it's going to feel warm — temperatures in the southeast and east anglia reaching 20 or 21 degrees and again, in the north—east of scotland,

18 degrees, where we're missing those showers. but the weather starts to change into the weekend because we've got a few weather fronts coming down from the northwest, bringing more cloud, some rain and some cooler air, too. first weather front here is bringing this cloud and patchy rain across northern england and wales, pushing into the midlands and south west england later. and then, following on behind, a lot of showers for scotland and northern ireland, some of them heavy and thundery with some hail. the last of the warmth and some sunshine still across east anglia in the southeast — temperatures 20 degrees here — but elsewhere, those temperatures are going to be several degrees lower on saturday. now, we're replacing that warmer southwesterly wind with something much cooler — a westerly wind which will bring in more showers on sunday — and we'll see showers, particularly in scotland and northern ireland and just for a while, there could be a bit of winteriness over the mountaintops. there'll be a few showers coming in over the irish sea to north west england and north wales but further south and east, it may well be dry but it's certainly going to be cooler — we've got temperatures back down to 15 degrees, which is near normal for this time of the year, but struggling to 10 or 11 across much of scotland and northern ireland.

and here, we're going to find a lot of showers overnight and into monday. low pressure moving down across the uk. that's going to bring a stronger northwesterly wind and make it feel chilly on monday. but after that, the weather should improvejust a little with fewer showers and it won't be quite as windy.

good morning, welcome to breakfast with naga munchetty and charlie stayt. our headlines today. "he died without penance". the families of oj simpson's alleged victims plan to claim compensation from his estate following his death. more pressure on former bosses of the post office. two more will appear at the horizon inquiry today, as a former sub—postmistress rejects an apology. they need to apologise to my ten—year—old. you know, they took his mum away on his birthday. i was eight weeks pregnant, so, you know, they need to apologise to my younger son. it's terrible. i haven't accepted the apologies. the farmers struggling to keep their businesses afloat, after a record—breaking 18 months of rain. it months of rain. may be lovely weather for ducks but it may be lovely weather for ducks but less lovely for businesses like

this garden centre where the