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tv   The Context  BBC News  April 12, 2024 8:00pm-8:31pm BST

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is that iran is preparing a strike against israel that we use more than 100 drones, dozens of cruise missiles, and perhaps ballistic missiles as well. we are watching this very very closely. we still deem the potential threat by iran here to be real, to be viable, certainly credible. i spoke to — we're not expressing any serious concern or alarm. most of them i spoke to say we live with this all the time. there was some resignation about it. there wasn't any sense of heightened concern or imminent threat and how they felt.
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coming up this hour — us officials have warned that iran could launch a major attack on israel as soon as today, in retaliation for last week's air strike on an iranian diplomatic compound in syria. we'll look at what the implications could be for the region. we'll have all the day's sports news, and look at glasgow offering to host the commonwealth games if no other host can be found for 2026. this is after singapore joined malaysia in saying they won't bid for it. the australian state of victoria pulled out of hosting back injuly because of costs. 0rganisers say a glasgow games would have to be scaled back, and we'll talk about the boat that's the brightest of all time — scientists have worked out what caused the most brilliant burst of light ever recorded, but it's thrown up other big questions they thought they had the answers to like, where do heavy elements like gold actually come from? —— and we'll talk about the boat — that's the brightest of all time — us officials have warned that iran could launch a major attack on israel, and that it could happen soon. these warnings follow an air strike in syria last week on an iranian diplomatic compound in damascus, that killed several military
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advisers, including a top general. us officials have told cbs news an attack could involve more than 100 drones and dozens of missiles. washington has said it's taking the threat of an iranian attack against israel seriously. we're watching this very, very closely. we still deem the potential threat by iran here to be real, to be viable, certainly credible, and we're watching it as closely as we can. right now, ourfocus is on having conversations with our israeli counterparts and making sure — notjust conversations, but making sure that they have what they need, and that they're able to defend themselves, and as i think you know, we're also... clearly, it would be imprudent if we did not take a look at our own posture in the region to make sure we're properly prepared, as well. in the last hour or so, the iran—backed hezbollah group in southern lebanon has said has fired dozens of rockets at artillery
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positions in northern israel. it said the move was in response to previous israeli strikes in southern villages. the israeli military said it had identified a0 launches, some of which were intercepted. live tojersualem, we can speak to our diplomatic correspondent james landale. for people who may be wondering whether these attacks from hezbollah are some retaliation by proxy, tell us how they compare to what hezbollah has been doing pretty much daily for the last few months. lucy. daily for the last few months. lucy, as ou daily for the last few months. lucy, as you say. — daily for the last few months. lucy, as you say, there's _ daily for the last few months. lucy, as you say, there's been _ daily for the last few months. lucy, as you say, there's been a - daily for the last few months. lucy, as you say, there's been a pretty i as you say, there's been a pretty regular exchange of fire between hezbollah, the armed militant political group in lebanon, and israeli forces in northern israel. the hezbollah launched this attack this evening, different accounts and different numbers, 40—50, many dozens. hezbollah was very clear in
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their statement they put out that this was in response to israeli attacks on some of their positions earlier. at the moment, we don't think — certainly no one has said there's any kind of link between this evening's attack and any potential irani in response to the missile attack on damascus 12 days ago —— iranian response that destroyed the consul building in the capital of syria. the only possible connection that some analysts have drawn is that it is possible — and this is speculation — that hezbollah are trying to exhaust some of israel's missile defences, because of course the iron dome system that israel has to defend itself against missile attacks is essentially one missile attacks is essentially one missile that israel has to fire into the sky to destroy the incoming missile. it only has a finite amount of stocks, therefore it is possible that hezbollah, at the behest of
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iran, is trying to exhaust some of those stocks, but that's just the response from some analysts. the white house _ response from some analysts. the white house has called this a real incredible threat from iran in attacking inside israel — can you just talk us through, because i mentioned in the introduction that our cbs partners have been speaking to us officials about what this attack could entail, 100 drones or so. could you talk us through what they've been saying? in so. could you talk us through what they've been saying?— so. could you talk us through what they've been saying? in recent days there's been — they've been saying? in recent days there's been a _ they've been saying? in recent days there's been a pretty _ they've been saying? in recent days there's been a pretty steady - there's been a pretty steady drumbeat from the americans about the possible threat from iran on israel. the president said an attack was imminent, and some officials have said that attack could come as soon as today, some say it could involve hundreds of missiles and drones. 0n the record, the national security spokesperson is saying that the threat is credible, it is real — but do we think that these are all
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accurate predictions of the future? we simply don't know, but they could also be part of an american attempt to try to deter iran, to try to minimise iran's response by being as public as they can about the political threat. they can also be an attempt by the americans to shape opinions so that ultimately, when iran, if it does make some kind of response, it is perhaps seen as less escalatory than a multiple missile attack that american officials have been talking about. if iran were to launch an attack of that scale, it would be a huge escalation and prompt a pretty robust response from israel — and i think the fear officials have across the piece here is that if that were to happen, then there would be a full—scale regional war, and i think many will want to try to avoid that.—
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war, and i think many will want to try to avoid that. thanks very much, james try to avoid that. thanks very much, james there — try to avoid that. thanks very much, james there in _ try to avoid that. thanks very much, james there in jerusalem. _ let's speak to james walsh, senior research associate at the massachusetts institute of technology's security studies program. thanks forjoining us, i'm seeing reports from the wire thatjoe biden is expecting an iranian attack on israel sooner rather than later. what do you think about what america is doing right now? the officials who have been briefing on what the scale of the attack can be? what is the message that the us is trying to get out here?— the message that the us is trying to netouthere? �*, , get out here? well, there's messages and words, get out here? well, there's messages and words. and _ get out here? well, there's messages and words, and messages _ get out here? well, there's messages and words, and messages in - get out here? well, there's messages and words, and messages in actions l get out here? well, there's messages and words, and messages in actions -j and words, and messages in actions — the us is moving assets to the region, it's making these statements. but it also has made other statements to reporters, and there are reports that suggest that iran is looking for a calibrated response, that it's not looking to have this be a response that would
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give israel the opportunity to escalate and reframe the war. so we will see what happens, but it would be a surprise if iran certainly started launching ballistic missiles at israel. the history of those two countries, they certainly talk a mean game but they haven't had any direct interactions. 0nly mean game but they haven't had any direct interactions. only once has iran, in 2018, launched an attack that hit israeli soil. so in some ways, it's really not in iran's interest to respond in a way that provokes a wider war on them, they prefer to... provokes a wider war on them, they prefer t0- - -— prefer to... sorry, i was 'ust going to say its — prefer to... sorry, i was 'ust going to say in it — prefer to... sorry, i was 'ust going to say it's it needs _ prefer to... sorry, i was 'ust going to say it's it needs to _ prefer to... sorry, i was 'ust going to say it's it needs to be- prefer to... sorry, i wasjust going to say it's it needs to be seen - prefer to... sorry, i wasjust going to say it's it needs to be seen to i to say it's it needs to be seen to be doing something, doesn't it, in order to appease people at home? this is the goldilocks problem, it has to be significant that they can save some face and risk some deterrence. "if you attack me, i'll respond." it doesn't say when
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they'll respond, and the supreme leader, what do we know about the supreme leader? he's cautious and a calculator. i think he'll be reluctant to take what he thinks is bait to try to goad him into a wider conflict, but he feels compelled to respond. the options here are great — if you want to make it proportionate, iran would probably try to go after another embassy, and israeli embassy. those countries that make those sorts of operations more difficult. so yes, we are expecting an attack, there will be a response at some point and it may happen in the next 48 hours, but it may not happen. this could be a way for iran to cause a lot of anxiety and strike later at a more opportune moment. in and strike later at a more opportune moment. , ., , ., �* , moment. in terms of israel's capabilities _ moment. in terms of israel's capabilities to _ moment. in terms of israel's capabilities to defend - moment. in terms of israel's capabilities to defend itself, | moment. in terms of israel's i capabilities to defend itself, we hear so much about how sophisticated its defence systems are with the iron dome and the like — if it was on the scale that the us officials
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are briefing that it could be, how able is it to defend itself against that kind of attack? it’s able is it to defend itself against that kind of attack? it's certainly able to do more _ that kind of attack? it's certainly able to do more force _ that kind of attack? it's certainly able to do more force protection j able to do more force protection then iran. iran doesn't have much of an air force, it has missiles and what we call asymmetric response — it's not as powerful as israel, israel poncelet military is both more sophisticated and more endowed —— israel's military. that's why iran has cultivated a relationship with hezbollah, it's one of the primary ways to deter israel or to respond to an israeli attack since it doesn't really have the power to reach us. they aren't countries that share a border, they are far away — but lebanon is on the border and it does have missiles and rockets, so that's why there's this fear, or for iran, it's a way to retaliate. hezbollah has made it clear that this is for iran to take care of on its own, it doesn't plan any
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independent action. so iran is backed into a corner here, it doesn't want to let itself be continued to be attacked without a response, but if years if he gives a respond, he gives israel a chance to change the war. respond, he gives israel a chance to change the war-— change the war. there's certainly di - lomatic change the war. there's certainly diplomatic efforts _ change the war. there's certainly diplomatic efforts at _ change the war. there's certainly diplomatic efforts at the - change the war. there's certainlyj diplomatic efforts at the moment change the war. there's certainly i diplomatic efforts at the moment to try to change the situation —— calm the situation. why do you think israel launched this attack in syria on the diplomatic compound in the first place? i ask you briefly and it's a complicated one. and first place? i ask you briefly and it's a complicated one.— it's a complicated one. and i'll answer briefly, _ it's a complicated one. and i'll answer briefly, and _ it's a complicated one. and i'll answer briefly, and it's - it's a complicated one. and i'll answer briefly, and it's the - it's a complicated one. and i'll l answer briefly, and it's the most important question. the question here is, did israel launched what is an escalatory attack? they raised the ante by attacking a consulate, did they do that because they thought they could get away with it? iran doesn't want to fight, so we can get away with it when normally we couldn't? 0r can get away with it when normally we couldn't? or are we trying to provoke iran because we are trying to change this war, from israel versus gaza, with the us getting sort of uncomfortable, to israel versus iran, changing the politics
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and bringing the us closer? that would be a huge risk on israel's part to open a two front war. but that's the question you asked, what was the israeli intention? was it to get away with something, or was it to provoke? and we won't know until iran responds to whatever iran does next. , ,., , ., iran responds to whatever iran does next. , ., , next. the response to the response. thank ou next. the response to the response. thank you so — next. the response to the response. thank you so much _ next. the response to the response. thank you so much for— next. the response to the response. thank you so much for talking - next. the response to the response. thank you so much for talking to - next. the response to the response. thank you so much for talking to us, really appreciate it, james walsh. thank you. this week, foreign secretary lord cameron said the uk will not block arms sales to israel, after reviewing the latest legal advice on the issue. but pressure on the government continues to mount, with critics saying uk weapons exports to israel could make britain complicit in alleged breaches of international humanitarian law. our analysis editor ros atkins explains. this week, foreign secretary lord
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cameron said the uk will not block this week, the uk foreign secretary lord cameron gave an update on arms sales to israel. 0ur position is in line with our international partners. so far, no like minded countries have taken the decision to suspend existing arms export licenses to israel. the government's position is based on legal advice, which, as is standard, hasn't been published. but the shadow foreign secretary, david lammy, says that in this case it should be, that the government is avoiding scrutiny. arms sales are a focus because of israel's actions in gaza. it denies targeting civilians, but it's killed thousands of them — and it's done so in part with weapons from the west. the us accounts for 65% of arms sales to israel in the past decade, germany over 29%, italy over four. in 2022, the uk provided 0.02% of israel's military imports. but, although the uk isn't a major arms supplier to israel, it is a long—time ally. and if arms sales stopped, that would be a significant diplomatic blow to israel. that, though, hasn't happened — for now at least. and whether that may change depends
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on the uk's own rules. they say the government should not grant a licence if it determines there's a clear risk that the items might be used to commit or facilitate a serious violation of international humanitarian law. to judge this, the government receives legal advice. this is a formal process. this isn'tjust a sort of political decision of ministers sitting around saying, "well, what should we do?" there is a formal technical, almost quasi—judicial processes. that process led to this decision. the latest assessment leaves our position on export licences unchanged. this is consistent with the advice that i and other ministers have received, and as ever, we will keep the position under review. days before, though, a different legal analysis was shared. 750 lawyers and academics, including fourformer supreme courtjustices, signed an open letter to rishi sunak. it stated that...
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one of the signatories is former supreme courtjustice lord sumption. the whole framework of international law governing war dictates that the fact that you have been provoked and attacked, however outrageously, does not mean to say that you can do whatever you like. it doesn't mean to say that you can indiscriminately slaughter innocent civilians and children. it doesn't mean to say that you can attack aid convoys. labour, too, has raised concern, saying if there is a clear risk that uk arms might be used in a serious breach of international humanitarian law, the government must suspend the sale of those arms. as we've heard, the government defends its position. but the pressure is growing — and that pressure increased with israel's recent killing of seven aid workers in gaza, including three britons. israel called this a grave mistake, but israel's actions that day played into broader concerns. i think the israelis have got to learn some very hard lessons because it's clear that from the very outset of this
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conflict, they have not been giving priority to the protection of civilians, the special protection of humanitarian workers, medical workers that international humanitarian law requires. israel denies this. and, while the uk government's advice is that the arms sales are legal, this isn't only about the law. israel's actions in gaza are led by a military the uk is helping to arm. whether legal or not, that's a political choice as well. around the world and across the uk, this is bbc news.
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police are investigating claims labour's deputy leader, angela rayner, may have broken electoral law over information she gave about where she was living ten years ago. it follows a complaint by a deputy chairman of the conservative party, over whether or not she paid the correct level of tax, on the sale of her council
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house in 2015. she strongly denies she's done anything wrong. political correspondent leila nathoo joins me from westminster. can you just talk us through what the police will be looking into? it's quite a complicated tale, these claims first surfaced some weeks ago in an unauthorised biography of angela rayner, labour's deputy leader, by a former tory party chairman. they were then taking on by the current tory deputy party chairman. they centred around whether angela rayner lived in the house that she said she did, that she said was her primary residence between the years of 2007 — 15 when she sold it. now the reason it's important is because she was registered on the electoral roll, so registered on the electoral roll, so registered to vote, at that address. but the tory mp, james daly, who is
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the party's deputy chairman, says that accounts from a lever�*s at the time —— neighbours at the time say she wasn't really living there, she was instead living with her then husband, who had another property registered in his name. so it's a bit of a complex tale, but essentially the questions are whether — they centred around whether — they centred around whether the address you gave as her permanent address was the correct one. there's separate claims about whether she paid the requisite text when she sold that property in 2015. she says she took legal advice and took tax advice too, and she doesn't think she owes any tax back, she says the labour party officials have seen that advice and are satisfied — certainly the labour leader keir starmer is standing by her pretty confidently. but tonight, she said that she welcomes the police investigation as an opportunity to draw the line under the matter. she saysis draw the line under the matter. she says is for she is found to have
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committed an offence, she will, in her words, committed an offence, she will, in herwords, do committed an offence, she will, in her words, do the right thing and step down. so she has set the bar quite high, she's raised the stakes of this, but it sounds to me as if she's confident she's not guilty of any wrongdoing. it's worth noting that police initially were asked to look at this by the conservative mp, james daly, they decided not to and he complained, saying they had not taken into account enough information— dave now said they've reassessed and will look into whether any offences have been committed. so there will be some way for this police investigation to run, but angela rayner tonight sounding confident that she's not committed any criminal offence. thanks very much for talking us through all that. belgium is formally investigating russian attempts to influence the outcome of the european elections injune. the prime minister, alexander de croo, said the kremlin had bribed some meps to spread its propaganda and disinformation — to get more pro russian politicians elected. he added politicians from several countries had been targeted; some
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had been given money, others were influenced in other ways. he stressed that eu—wide action was needed to counter the interference. the czech republic has also opened an investigation into russia's alleged activities. ukraine's president zelensky has warned that his country is fast running out of air defences and artillery to fend off russian attacks. he says that if us congress continues to hold up a $60 billion military aid package — then ukraine will lose its war against russia. already, russia has intensified its air campaign against ukraine, hammering its energy infrastructure and urban areas — on thursday, a major power plant near kyiv was destroyed by russian strikes. these images are from the city of kharkiv, which has come under intense bombardment over the past few days. let's speak to maryan zablotskyy, member of the ukrainian parliament. hello to you. just talk about how
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vulnerable the energy infrastructure is, because as ijust mentioned yesterday, there were these big attacks on a plant, it's very vulnerable isn't it? it attacks on a plant, it's very vulnerable isn't it?- vulnerable isn't it? it is vulnerable _ vulnerable isn't it? it is vulnerable unless - vulnerable isn't it? it is vulnerable unless you i vulnerable isn't it? it is - vulnerable unless you have vulnerable isn't it? it 3 vulnerable unless you have anti—air missiles. and unfortunately, we are desperately running out of them. so the russian military technologies are not that far from iran the russian military technologies are not that farfrom iran or the russian military technologies are not that far from iran or north korea. those patriot missiles do shoot them down very effectively, but unfortunately like israel, we will be under attack from irani and drones. almost 1000 irani and drones were used since the beginning of 2024. , , , , 2024. this is why president zelensky is a . ain 2024. this is why president zelensky is again pleading _ 2024. this is why president zelensky is again pleading with _ 2024. this is why president zelensky is again pleading with countries - 2024. this is why president zelensky is again pleading with countries to i is again pleading with countries to help on the air defence side of things. you've been to the front line, in contact with people on the front line all the time — tell us what they say they need? bier?
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front line all the time - tell us what they say they need? very simple the need what they say they need? very simple they need ways _ what they say they need? very simple they need ways and _ what they say they need? very simple they need ways and means _ what they say they need? very simple they need ways and means to - what they say they need? very simple they need ways and means to shoot . they need ways and means to shoot back. because morale drops really fast when you are under fire and can't respond. sojust fast when you are under fire and can't respond. so just a fast when you are under fire and can't respond. sojust a brief estimate — previously our soldiers were allowed to shoot 60 artillery shells per day, now it's down to maybe five per day, sometimes down to zero — while russia has ramped up production and received over 3 million artillery shells from north korea, at least according to the south korean defence minister. more? south korean defence minister. now ou've not south korean defence minister. now you've got this _ south korean defence minister. now you've got this new legislation which is aimed at helping mobilise troops — how are people feeling about that? are you expecting the numbers to increase significantly soon then?— soon then? people are willing to fi . ht, soon then? people are willing to fiuht, but soon then? people are willing to fight. but as _ soon then? people are willing to fight, but as long _ soon then? people are willing to fight, but as long as _ soon then? people are willing to fight, but as long as they - soon then? people are willing to fight, but as long as they know. soon then? people are willing to i fight, but as long as they know that they have ways and means to respond — and unfortunately, the us aid has been locked for six months now, which definitely resulted in
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thousands of ukrainian deaths, which could have been avoided. we had to strengthen our prescription rules not always for people to go into the fight, but for every one person shooting, there needs to be 5—6 people servicing him for them to have geared to be repaired or feel to be available, etc. so unfortunately we had to strengthen the lack of strict and the rules to stop what you've been in the us campaigning to get movement on this aid package = campaigning to get movement on this aid acka. ~. ., campaigning to get movement on this aid acka: ~. ., ., campaigning to get movement on this aid acka. ~. ., ., i. campaigning to get movement on this aid acka- ~. ., ., i. aid package - how would you say the mood is and — aid package - how would you say the mood is and how _ aid package - how would you say the mood is and how you _ aid package - how would you say the mood is and how you are _ aid package - how would you say the mood is and how you are received to| mood is and how you are received to there? ~ �* , , , there? we're pretty sure the ma'ori there? we're pretty sure the majority of _ there? we're pretty sure the majority of the _ there? we're pretty sure the majority of the us _ there? we're pretty sure the majority of the us public- there? we're pretty sure the majority of the us public do | there? we're pretty sure the - majority of the us public do support further aid for ukraine, but unfortunately for whatever reasons, it's been deadlocked for six months now, and unfortunately that's
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resulted in very real casualties. although i do know that the majority of republican and democratic party do support further aid to ukraine. thank you so much for talking to us, thank you. thank you so much for talking to us, thank ou. . ., thank you so much for talking to us, thank ou. ., ,, i. he was known for his flamboyant prince and patterns, as well as his innovative printing techniques, and he died at home in florence after a long illness. he rose to prominence in the 1970s dressing stars including sophia loren and bridget bardo, and his styles were still favoured years on later by later generations of celebrities, from kim kardashian tojennifer lopes. that's all for me from dust from me for this half—hour, stay with us on bbc news. hello. temperatures for some of us today got up into the high teens, the low 20s celsius —
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particularly where we saw some sunshine — but don't expect those warm conditions to last. it's actually going to turn cooler this weekend. 0ften windy, the wettest weather towards the north and the west of the uk. today, we've had this feed of south or south—westerly winds bringing this relatively warm air, but notice some colder air lurking out in the atlantic. that will head our way as westerly winds start to kick in through the weekend. those westerly winds moving in behind various different frontal systems. here comes one. not much more than just a little bit of showery rain, certainly more cloud with that. most places, i think, will be largely dry through the night. some further hefty showers into north—west scotland, where it will be windy. it's going to be mild to take us into saturday morning. so, for saturday, a couple of different weather fronts to pass across the uk. this first one here bringing some mostly fairly light, showery rain. this next weather front here bringing some more intense downpours across northern ireland and the north—west of scotland. some heavy, thundery downpours are possible. between the rain bands, we will see some spells of sunshine and what will be quite a windy day,
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particularly across northern areas, gusts of 40 mph or more, but a pretty windy day wherever you are. temperatures in the south—east corner getting up to 20 degrees celsius. further north and west, it will be turning cooler as the day wears on, and actually saturday night could be quite cold. we could see a touch of frost in northern areas. these weather fronts moving out of the way, a window of drier weather, but we're into those westerly winds and that chillier air mass by this stage. sunday is going to be a sunshine and showers day. it could be a frosty start for some northern areas, then some spells of sunshine. showers getting going, particularly across northern ireland, scotland, northern england, some down into wales. some of the showers wintry over the highest ground in the north. not as many showers down towards the south—east corner, 9—15 degrees. that is about where we should be temperature—wise for this time of year. now, monday, we'll see this area of low pressure passing across the uk. we'll see showers or longer spells
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of rain, some pretty blustery winds as well. the showers becoming fewer and further between as we head deeper into next week. temperature—wise, well, around the average for the time of year.
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hello, i'm lucy grey. you're watching the context on bbc news. as the minimum age forjoining whatsapp is lowered — a bbc investigation finds that children as young as nine are already seeing alarming content. sport and for a full round—up, from the bbc sport centre, here's . hugh ferris. hello from the bbc sport centre scoring in round two of the matters has proven tougher. most of the fee letter finished or has proven tougher. most of the fee letterfinished or open run after thursday's delayed start, but despite the extra play, not much change at the top of the leaderboard stop bryson to shamble plated —— lead for most of the despite striking a ball, or was he rounded the turn recently with a share of the turn recently with a share of the lead. world number one scottie scheffler is playing while waiting on a call from his wife who is expecting a baby, and while he may
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not finish the masters, he's currently tied

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