the israelis say 99% were intercepted. the us, britain and jordan were among the countries involved in israel's defence. some of the missiles were intercepted outside earth's atmosphere. the white house says it does not want the crisis to escalate into a wider war and it will be up to israel as to how to respond. some supporters of the iranian government in tehran celebrate the attack — iran warns israel not to retaliate. welcome if you are justjoining welcome if you arejustjoining us here on bbc news. let's recap the event of an astonishing night because... israel is warning that it will retaliate after iran fired a huge barrage of drones and missiles at israel. the israelis say that 99%

of the projectiles were shot down, with military support from the united states, the uk and other countries. in total, modern 300 missiles and drones were launched. —— more than 300 missiles,... it's the first time that iran has �*directly targeted' israel from its own soil. iran says its actions were in response to a missile strike earlier this month in syria, that killed several of its military commanders. with me is kasra aarabi, director of islamic revolutionary guard corps research at united against nuclear iran. thank you so much for being here on the programme. your headline thought into what we have seen over the last few hours? , ., , ., into what we have seen over the last few hours? , .,, ., , few hours? this was a very well choreographed _ few hours? this was a very well choreographed attack _ few hours? this was a very well choreographed attack by - few hours? this was a very well choreographed attack by the . few hours? this was a very well- choreographed attack by the islamic revolutionary guard corps, the reigning regime's paramilitary organisation. its purpose serves the propaganda needs to immobilise its

internal, small but radical constituency, and also its proxy networks as well as its pro—palestinian constituencies and islamist extremist constituencies across the world, and as well as that, beyond back propaganda focus, it is also to focus the boundaries of red lines and see how much it can get away with. despite the fact this was, as i said, a well choreographed, symbolic attack, it still unprecedented in nature and we should expect an israeli retaliation. in should expect an israeli retaliation.— should expect an israeli retaliation. , ., , ., retaliation. in terms of your analysis. — retaliation. in terms of your analysis. i _ retaliation. in terms of your analysis, i hear— retaliation. in terms of your analysis, i hear what - retaliation. in terms of your analysis, i hear what you i retaliation. in terms of your| analysis, i hear what you are retaliation. in terms of your - analysis, i hear what you are saying about propaganda, but i suppose the question is, how far iran wanted to 90, question is, how far iran wanted to go, wants to go. because a lot of analysts are pointing to the fact that this was well telegraphed in terms of what they were going to do. you even had iranians representatives saying the response had concluded before the drones even

arrived in the region. does that say to you that they wanted to give the impression of a tough response but not have that widened escalated war? yes, because they don't have the military doctrine nor the capabilities for direct full—scale conflict with israel. they operate asymmetrically and it is effectively asymmetrically and it is effectively a militant organisation. it does not have the capability to take on israel. this was a symbolic attack. it serves the regime's propaganda purposes but it is still unprecedented in nature and strategically reckless. the key thing here now is, when israel retaliates, because israel will retaliate, us support for israel, because if the iranians regime receives a lack of us support for the israeli retaliation, we will seek the continuation of escalation, particularly in the next ten months,

before a potential new administration in the white house. in terms of israel's response, what are the most dangerous options from tehran�*s point of view in terms of forcing their hand? the tehran's point of view in terms of forcing their hand?— forcing their hand? the regime in iran believes _ forcing their hand? the regime in iran believes that _ forcing their hand? the regime in iran believes that the _ forcing their hand? the regime in iran believes that the us, - forcing their hand? the regime in iran believes that the us, for - iran believes that the us, for example, has zero appetite for direct confrontation, zero appetite for imposing direct consequences on the regime despite the escalation we have seen since october seven, including more than 170 proxy attacks on us forces, including the killings of three us soldiers. that calculus must be changed, so these targets have to be inside iran and we are talking about military intelligence assets, military bases, senior military commanders spearheading these militant operations, as well as potentially nuclear sites. again, going operations, as well as potentially nuclearsites. again, going back operations, as well as potentially nuclear sites. again, going back to that ten month timeframe, there is a

lot of chatter inside the regime among the supreme leader's circle and commanders that the next ten months may be the best time to agonise the nuclear programme, because they believe the biden administration does not seek to impose direct consequences on the regime in tehran.— impose direct consequences on the regime in tehran. simple question - wh didn't regime in tehran. simple question - why didn't iran. _ regime in tehran. simple question - why didn't iran, as _ regime in tehran. simple question - why didn't iran, as they _ regime in tehran. simple question - why didn't iran, as they have - regime in tehran. simple question - why didn't iran, as they have so - why didn't iran, as they have so many other times, single—use proxies to carry out such an attack? the reaime to carry out such an attack? the regime in _ to carry out such an attack? the regime in iran — to carry out such an attack? tue: regime in iran wants to carry out such an attack? tte: regime in iran wants to to carry out such an attack? "tt2 regime in iran wants to serve to carry out such an attack? tt2 regime in iran wants to serve a propaganda purpose because everyone was questioning, including its own support base, why is there lots of tough talk but zero action to back it up? they were under pressure to act, they were under pressure to mobilise their core constituency, coal limited constituency, because the overwhelming majority of iranians have been explicitly calling for a regime change and have even supported israeli strikes against military commanders, so this

was to respond directly, push the boundaries of the red lines. if the regime in iran genuinely wanted to land a blow to israel, it would have used its proxies to have encircled the israeli state and therefore could have landed a more effective strike. this was serving propaganda purposes and also, crucially, pushing the boundaries of red lines. very reckless. is there one more element to this which suggests a weakness in the bag administration? in the run—up to this, we have talked about it being telegraphed, but it was reported, back channels were used to washington to suggest that ifjoe biden was able to bring in a ceasefire and force israel to have a ceasefire, these attacks would not have happened. and he was not able to do that. does that underline the weakness there of washington's influence on israel? t washington's influence on israel? i don't see it that way, the weakness

iran perceives ofjoe biden is that he has zero appetite to impose direct consequences on iran. the regime in iran has been escalating on all fronts, more than 170 proxy attacks, which was spearheaded by the commander who was killed two weeks ago by israel, and the us still hasn't responded to the regime in iran directly, still not shown appetite to do so. they believe they have the next ten months could be the best opportunity to escalate not only against israel on the nuclear portfolio, but iran is the single biggest back out of vladimir putin's war in ukraine. those drones fired last night whether same as those fired on ukrainian civilians. if we don't see firm us support for an israeli retaliation in the next ten

months, expect escalation but only in the region, in ukraine and across the border in terms of terrorism in europe. the border in terms of terrorism in euro e. ., ~ the border in terms of terrorism in euroe. ., ,, ,, the border in terms of terrorism in euroe. . ~ ,, ., the border in terms of terrorism in euroe. ., ~' ., ., the border in terms of terrorism in euroe. ., ~ ., ., , europe. thank you for “oining us. the line coming h europe. thank you for “oining us. the line coming in _ europe. thank you forjoining us. the line coming in their - europe. thank you forjoining us. the line coming in their that - europe. thank you forjoining us. the line coming in their that the | the line coming in their that the airline lufthansa have suspended flights to and from tel aviv. that is the latest from the airline lufthansa, suspending a range of flights to tel aviv. let's speak to our security correspondent gordon corera. let's go back to basics for a moment because we have talked about an unprecedented attack, this is the first time iran has actually attacked israel on its, from its soil. , . ., , , soil. unprecedented in that sense, the two sides _ soil. unprecedented in that sense, the two sides have _ soil. unprecedented in that sense, the two sides have been _ soil. unprecedented in that sense, the two sides have been engaged l soil. unprecedented in that sense, l the two sides have been engaged in soil. unprecedented in that sense, i the two sides have been engaged in a shadow war decades, really, in which iran has been using its proxies, groups like hezbollah, to fire

missiles and carry out other activities against israel and even inside israel, and israel has been targeting iranians nuclear scientists, going back decades, including within iran. but you have not seen that direct confrontation that we have seen in the last 2a—hours, and including that targeting of an iranian consulate in damascus. so it isn't escalation, it is significant, but the question is, what next?— what next? exactly, because president — what next? exactly, because president biden _ what next? exactly, because president biden and - what next? exactly, because president biden and others l what next? exactly, because i president biden and others can what next? exactly, because - president biden and others can talk about containment but there are so many variables at play, aren't there? ., , many variables at play, aren't there? . , ., , ., many variables at play, aren't there? . , ., there? that is right, and you can sense from _ there? that is right, and you can sense from the _ there? that is right, and you can sense from the language - there? that is right, and you can sense from the language coming there? that is right, and you can - sense from the language coming out of the us that they are urging publicly and behind—the—scenes israel to carry out a measured response in how it deals with this, because of the us do not want to escalate into a wider war. the science of being that iran does not want to escalate into a wider war get into a war with the united

states, which would be very serious for them, for the regime into a rant. but there are incentives not to escalate, —— in tehran. but events can spiral out of control and you can imagine a situation which side lunges a strike that kills or does more damage than expected and that leads to an escalation, which can drive more parties in and lead to more significant strikes. that is the concern as everyone waits to see what israel will do. the noises coming out of israel are mixed. we have heard some of the more hawkish members links to benjamin netanyahu talking about deterrence, meaning a hardline stance and some kind of strength against the reigning interest. 0thers strength against the reigning interest. others in the war cabinet have talked about responding in a manner and means at a time of their

choosing, suggesting a more careful response. there will be lots of thoughts, lots of behind—the—scenes negotiations to work out what that response might be. i think it is hard to say exactly at the moment. given what you have just said and looking at the pictures from the situation room withjoe biden watching those events unfold in the hours overnight, the white house putting out this line thatjoe biden has told netanyahu that the us would not participate in a counter against iran if israel launches one. do you think that is helpful in the sense that it think that is helpful in the sense thatitis think that is helpful in the sense that it is very clear outline that is already being drawn and being drawn publicly?— drawn publicly? yes, and the americans — drawn publicly? yes, and the americans are _ drawn publicly? yes, and the americans are supposedly i drawn publicly? yes, and the i americans are supposedly saying to the israelis that this has gone pretty well for israel, iran had to strike back for that attack on the consulate building, iran struck

back, but israel was able to knock out 99% of the drones and missiles that were launched, and there was very little damage according to israel. the american message is to say, israelshould israel. the american message is to say, israel should largely take that rather than escalate again. and to try and put a lid if you like on the situation. that seems to be the messaging currently from washington. but israel is not duty—bound to follow what washington says or wants, and we have seen that in recent months over gaza. but israel, it is a complicated situation because they may feel tension has moved away from gaza and they have more international support from countries when it comes to confronting iran. they may want to keep it focused on that but they will not want to lose that by going to far. then again, they also have this view about deterrence against tehran and they will not want to be seen as accepting strikes against

israeli territory from iran even if the damage was pretty limited and made israel's defences look strong. finally, one of the lines coming out of the war cabinet was that they would exact a price from iran in the fashion and timing that is right for them. that does not suggest something pretty imminent or immediate. the problem with that is that it leaves the region with this instability for some while until we see what actually happens. that is ri . ht, see what actually happens. that is right. israel— see what actually happens. that is right, israel could _ see what actually happens. that is right, israel could respond - see what actually happens. that is right, israel could respond rightly| right, israel could respond rightly or it could choose to take action over a longer period against iranian proxies rather than in iran itself. there are a range of options israel could carry out across different timescales and that will be the crucial question, to see how that plays out, because that may determine whether the heat can be taken down from this or whether it goes up. irate

taken down from this or whether it toes u -. ~ , ., goes up. we must leave it there. thank you _ goes up. we must leave it there. thank you for— goes up. we must leave it there. thank you for that _ goes up. we must leave it there. thank you for that analysis. i goes up. we must leave it there. thank you for that analysis. we l goes up. we must leave it there. i thank you for that analysis. we will talk again in the coming while. our team at the bbc verify hub has been looking at all the images and videos that have come out overnight. 0ur verify reporter merlyn thomas has more. for the first time ever, iran has carried out direct strikes against israel. an israeli army spokesperson said that hundreds of drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles were launched against israel from iran, yemen and iraq. israel says 99% were intercepted and one child has reportedly been injured by shrapnel. we have verified two videos — this first one is filmed near a mosque injerusalem and in this next video, you can see missiles or drones heading for israel and air defences intercepting them. this is a still from that video i showed just now, and we have matched this

still with publicly available images online and we found out that this was filmed on the outskirts ofjerusalem. we know where this video was filmed and we are confident that these intercepts weren't overjerusalem, they appear to be to the south, possibly over the west bank. israel has said that a handful of ballistic missiles weren't intercepted and they hit an air base, here, and caused minimal damage. this is a satellite image of the base from august last year, and we have several videos purporting to be of the base being hit but most of the footage was taken in the dark, and we are still working on verifying these. israel released this footage showing a fighterjet returning to the airbase that is fully operational — we can't verify if this was from today. and we have seen footage from news agencies appearing to show what appears to be debris in amman, jordan. this is a moment of heightened

tensions in the middle east as we see whether and how israel will act. at verify, we will continue to monitor the situation closely. shashankjoshi is defence editor for the economist, he gave his assessment of iran's tactics with this latest attack. i think there were about 331 missiles — projectiles — fired. of those, about a third were ballistic missiles. ballistic missiles fly in very different ways. they fly in parabolic arcs, unlike cruise missiles or drones, which fly relatively flat trajectories inside the atmosphere much more slowly. ballistic missiles are much more likely to penetrate air defenses and get through, and they leave much less warning time. but i think it's notable that only a third of these weapons were ballistic missiles. they were probably targeted at israeli military bases, including the base that israel used to launch f—35 planes that conducted the original attack on the iranian consulate in lebanon. and so there was a kind of symmetry to this.

but had iran really wanted to cause more damage, had iran really sought to overwhelm israeli defenses, i think they would have used a much higher proportion of ballistic missiles, and they didn't. and i think that does tell us something of interest, something of note. i think it was in line with expectations of an iranian attack that was both sufficiently dramatic in scale and novelty. of course, the first direct iranian strike on israel to satisfy iran's need to restore deterrence, but also calibrated enough, limited enough in order to avoid inflicting such serious harm that it may have provoked a larger conflict. notably, i think the most significant thing here is the length of time that iran waited before responding, allowing israel and its allies to muster a response, evacuate air bases, prepare their radar facilities, all of these other things. and i think iran would have known that most of these missiles would probably have

been intercepted. here are live pictures from jerusalem as we wait to learn more coming out of the war cabinet meeting that has been going on. a few of the lines have been emerging with israel saying the planning to try to build up a regional alliance to combat iran and what they did. and we heard earlierfrom representative saying they would have a response to iran. these pictures are from tel aviv, an airline, lufthansa, said they were responding flights to and from tel aviv. they are live pictures coming into bbc. earlier noga tarnopolsky, an independentjournalist who specialises in the middle east, walked through biden's response and what the situation means for israel. i think that the question really

is very much in the air. as american media reported biden said to netanyahu, this could be a moment for netanyahu to take a victory lap, saying that we protected you, israel was able to defend itself, no casualties in israel, very few penetrations, that is whatjoe biden is asking netanyahu to do. and to move on. certainly not to attack in the way that the previous correspondent just described, which would be an overt israeli attack against iranian soil and that would be again, we are using this word a lot — a game changer. 0n the other hand, the reason that netanyahu is not thanking the united states, for which he has been criticised over night, saying that we deterred them.

0n the other hand, he's not saying anything concrete because he's playing a very difficult political game of poker inside israel. and he has encouraged his own most extremist ministers to speak up about a powerful response. this was said by several people while the iranians launches were en route. they will have to try and square this circle and come up with at least a possible way to move forward that will satisfy these conflicting demands. as you know, the hostility towards iran, which is hostile towards israel, it is a core tenant of the revolutionary doctrine, has defined the career of benjamin netanyahu, even before becoming prime minister. in all his years in power, he has said that this is the main threat facing israel.

0n at least one occasion, he was pulled back from the brink of ordering a direct strike. do you think there could be a division of opinion between prime minister netanyahu and the israeli military leadership? yes, that is a good question and it is good to remember that. i am almost 100% certain, from what i've heard in the last few hours that that division occurs. it has to be said, if i may say more directly, prime minister netanyahu has been in the israeli public space for the past 30 years, during that time, even before he was elected, he made iran his signal issue and he made deterring iran his signal issue. that is it, mr security against iran. and here you have the state of israel, which successfully stood in the face of this unprecedented

assault, but with the entire country paralysed, days and days of mounting anxiety, schools, universities, the airport closed. the country went into lockdown and i am quite sure, and i can quote you the most recent mossad director, among other security leaders questioning the decision of israel to assassinate this general in damascus two weeks ago. the man in charge of transferring weapons to iran's proxies in the region and wondering if this brought security to israel and wondering how netanyahu will be able to move forward, having promised a massive response, but it is unclear whether that would bring anything good to this country, and anything other than further destruction. plenty more on that story that is

absolutely dominating our coverage here on bbc news in a moment or two. just time to bring in one more story. more details have been emerging about the victims of the deadly knife attack at a shopping centre in sydney yesterday. 6 people were killed and 12 injured. 0ur correspondent katy watson has the latest from sydney. from the early hours of sunday morning, sydneysiders came to pay their respects. this is a nation in shock, not used to violent attacks like this. i go to that mall with my friends and stuff, but it's just sad to think like you can't even really like shop normally now without thinking twice about who's around you and all that stuff. the attacker was named asjoel cauchi, and more details about his background have also emerged. we do understand there is a history of mental health but it will be the ongoing work of the investigators to determine what his activities were yesterday

and the days before, that might indicate a motive. authorities singled out the bravery of inspector amy scott, who shot the assailant dead. her intervention, they said, saved many lives. the investigation is still very much under way. police teams are working there, and they could be working through to the early hours of monday morning. and the commissioner said at this stage there are probably more questions than answers, and that's something that will probably continue for the next few weeks. more details of the victims also emerged. ashlee good died trying to protect her nine—month—old who was injured. 0vernight, the little girl underwent surgery. faraz tahir was working as a security guard at the westfield when he died. after the panic and fear of saturday, people here are grieving, trying to understand why such a brutal attack happened. katy watson, bbc news, in sydney. we will take a short break and we will be back with plenty more from

middle east and you will be in a variety of capitals with the latest on the ground. head to the bbc news website because the live page has so much of the latest up—to—date analysis from jerusalem, washington and beirut. lots of information. worsening the white house spokesman john kirby doing a round of interviews this morning and he said the president and prime minister netanyahu had a good discussion about the extraordinary success of last night and they do not seek an escalation of this war, everything they have been doing since october 7th has been designed to avert that outcome. plenty more from bbc news here injust a moment. don't go away. hello. the warm spell of weather has come to an end, it's a much fresher day today and the outlook is pointing to frequent showers with hail and thunder and very windy weather for tomorrow.

here's the weather map, as we see that transition in the next 2a hours from the calm conditions we have had recently to this big low sitting on top of us, also dragging in the colder airfrom the northern climes and making it feel colder than it recently has been. 0nto the forecast — temperatures in the middle of the afternoon hovering around the mid—teens in the southeast of the country, barely making double figures across the north, where we already have showers sweeping across. the winds are freshening and the showers through the night generally confined to more northern and western areas. towards the end of the night, perhaps reaching central england but the southeast will stay dry. temperatures up to 8 celsius in most major towns and cities. tomorrow, a band of heavy showers across the country, gusty winds, showers could be torrential with hail and thunder, sunshine in—between and the gusts up

to 50mph on coastal areas and not far off that inland. a very turbulent day with dramatic cloudscapes and changeable weatherfrom hour to hour. the lowest temperatures around 10 celsius. that low will be barrelling across the uk into the north sea through the course of monday evening. tuesday, it will still have a sting in its tail, stronger winds and showers across the north sea coast, everywhere from yorkshire to east anglia. gusty winds of up to 50mph here but towards the west, the weather will be drier and brighter and the winds not quite as strong, not quite as chilly. but still around 8 celsius in stornoway and typically up to 13 elsewhere across the uk. towards the end of the week, another weak front moving across uk bringing cloud more than rain and also this high nosing in, an indication the weather should dry out. the main message for now is a very blustery day on the way tomorrow with big shower clouds but also sunny spells. bye— bye.

live from london. this is bbc news. iran strikes at israel with an unprecedented attack involving more than 300 drones and missiles. almost all them were intercepted before they landed.

the us, britain and jordan were among the countries involved in israel's defence. a member of israel's war cabinet, benny gantz, warns israel will retaliate. translation: faced with the threat of iran, we translation: faced with the threat of iran. we will— translation: faced with the threat of iran, we will build _ translation: faced with the threat of iran, we will build a _ translation: faced with the threat of iran, we will build a regional- of iran, we will build a regional coalition and collect the prize from iran in a way and at a time that suits us. the us warns it doesn't want the crisis to escalate into a wider war, but says it's up to israel, how to respond. it says it won't take part in any attack on iran. in tehran, supporters of the iranian government celebrate the attack. iran warns israel not to retaliate and says it has no intention of prolonging operations. this is the scene live injerusalem. benjamin netanyahu's war cabinet has met. the region is at a dangerous crossroads.