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tv   World Business Report  BBC News  April 16, 2024 2:30pm-2:46pm BST

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making it in china — germany's chancellor tells china's president his country wants a better deal on trade with the world's second biggest economy. welcome to world business report. i'm tadgh enright. the global economy is on course for a "soft landing" after years of difficulties caused by the covid pandemic and the war in ukraine — that's the optimistic assessment from the international monetary fund. it's launched its latest outlook as the world's finance minister and central bankers gather at its annualjoint spring meeting with the world bank in washington to discuss the future of the global economy. the report forecasts the global economy will grow 3.2% this year — that's a very slight upgrade of 0.1% compared to the last asessment in january. it's big concern is about inflation — the rate at which prices are rising.
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on the global measure the imf is using, it thinks it will be 2.8% by the end of this year — and warns that getting inflation back to their 2% target should be the priority for central banks. for many politcians that's been a key concern as they try to ease cost of living pressures for people around the world. here's the imf�*s chief economist speaking in the last half an hour or so. the global economy continues to display remarkable resilience with growth holding steady and inflation declining but many challenges still lie ahead. global growth was 3.2% in 2023 and is expected to remain at that level both in 2024 and 2025 and this represents a 0.3 percentage point upgrade from the october projections for 2024, with stronger activity than expected in the us, china and other large emerging
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markets, but we get activity in the euro area. —— weaker activity. 0ur correspondent michelle fleury is following this from new york. high inflation and interest rates made last year one that most of us want to forget. what did the imf have to say about how we are weathering that storm? the imf notes a lot of progress has been made from that very painful period, certainly for wealthier countries, in 2022, and slightly later in developing countries, and the words that keep cropping up our resilience but also divergence, resilience but also divergence, resilience if you look in the case of the us, the progress that has been made on inflation, the imf said was very impressive, and that despite recent bumps along the way, they still thought it was warranted for interest rates to take, interest rates cuts, i should say, to take
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place later this year in the us, but they also urged caution and not to proceed too hastily when it comes to cutting interest rates across the board. that goes to the idea of divergence that other countries still have more of a way to go in the battle to tame prices. so that is why you are hearing this acknowledgement that we are not where we were a year ago but at the same time it saying that the battle is not yet won when it comes to high prices. is not yet won when it comes to high rices. ., ., ~' is not yet won when it comes to high rices. ., ., 4' ., is not yet won when it comes to high rices. ., ., ~ ., ., ., prices. looking at the global growth forecast, prices. looking at the global growth forecast. 3-2% _ prices. looking at the global growth forecast, 3.2% for _ prices. looking at the global growth forecast, 3.2% for this _ prices. looking at the global growth forecast, 3.2% for this year, - prices. looking at the global growth forecast, 3.2% for this year, pretty l forecast, 3.2% for this year, pretty tepid by historical standards, so what is holding us back? it is. tepid by historical standards, so what is holding us back? it is, and --eole what is holding us back? it is, and peeple will — what is holding us back? it is, and peeple will not — what is holding us back? it is, and people will not be _ what is holding us back? it is, and people will not be surprised - what is holding us back? it is, and people will not be surprised to - what is holding us back? it is, and. people will not be surprised to hear that some of the hangover from the pandemic and the disruption caused to supply chains continues to cast a shadow over the global economy and then you have the geopolitical shocks, quite a few questions about the impact of the conflicts we are seeing, year three of the russian
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conflict with ukraine, and we also have what is happening in the middle east right now, and the chief economist at the imf was asked about the impact on the economy going forward of the conflict and outlined some of that, so we are seeing the tepid growth and the warning from the imf is that countries need to rebuild what they call fiscal buffers, they need to get their house in order when it comes to government debt and government spending, so that if there are shocks in the future, they will be better placed to withstand it. i think that is something they remain concerned about, that debt is not in a sustainable path in many parts of the world and it will be something we will hear a lot about this week. bear with us, we are going to listen to the press event going on in washington. fin to the press event going on in washington-— to the press event going on in washinuton. , m, h, washington. on the broader scale, so i think we are —
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washington. on the broader scale, so i think we are watching _ washington. on the broader scale, so i think we are watching the _ i think we are watching the situation closely, and our teams here _ situation closely, and our teams here are — situation closely, and our teams here are in — situation closely, and our teams here are in close contact with the authorilies— here are in close contact with the authorities but the progress again has been — authorities but the progress again has been quite short. whether this will be _ has been quite short. whether this will be one — has been quite short. whether this will be one thing or another, let's say that— will be one thing or another, let's say that we — will be one thing or another, let's say that we much prefer v over u, over— say that we much prefer v over u, over l! _ say that we much prefer v over u, over l! . , . say that we much prefer v over u, over l! ., , ., ,., . ~ say that we much prefer v over u, over l! ., , ., _, . ,, ., over l! the lady at the back of the room. i over l! the lady at the back of the room- i am _ over l! the lady at the back of the room. i am from _ over l! the lady at the back of the room. i am from a _ over l! the lady at the back of the room. i am from a colombian - room. i am from a colombian newspaper- _ room. i am from a colombian newspaper. what _ room. i am from a colombian newspaper. what is - room. i am from a colombian newspaper. what is the - room. i am from a colombian i newspaper. what is the growth perspective for latin america, not only for argentina, and across the world, how do you see the oil markets... world, how do you see the oil markets- - -— world, how do you see the oil markets... ,, , . ., ., markets... studio: we will leave our coveraue markets... studio: we will leave our coverage there _ markets... studio: we will leave our coverage there of _ markets... studio: we will leave our coverage there of the _ markets. .. studio: we will leave our coverage there of the annual- markets... studio: we will leave our coverage there of the annual event i coverage there of the annual event from the world bank in washington but we will have more on that in the business news programmes late in the
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day. and in that imf assessment there is a warning that china's economy continues to be troubled by the huge debt crisis in its property sector. however, in the first three months of this year it appears to have shrugged that off, with beijing reporting growth at a faster than expected annualised rate of 5.3%. despite that concerns remain about weak consumer spending and uncertain demand for the stuff china makes to export to the rest of the world. that was one of the major topics on the agenda as president xijinping met his german counterpart 0laf scholz in beijing. laura bicker has the latest from beijing. 0laf scholz came to china with a clear message, we will do business with beijing but they want china to play fair, and what he means by
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this, there is real concern in europe and the us, that china has subsidised its green technologies, and that might mean solar panels, electric vehicles, wind turbines, and that has driven costs down, and the cost of a solar panel has been halved in the last year and china produces more than 80% of the solar panels in the world, about half of all their exports go to europe, and thatis all their exports go to europe, and that is one of the reasons why european businesses are very worried, because they believe that china is driving those costs down and driving them out of business. the clear message coming from europe is they want china to play fair and the argument from china to this is that it the argument from china to this is thatitis the argument from china to this is that it is not state subsidies that are helping reduce the costs of their solar panels, it is their own innovation, they say they are good at this and this is something that people want to buy and they are
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providing a product. they also say cheap solar panels are good for the likes of africa and southeast asia as well as their customers in europe and the us. so what we are seeing is the edge of what some of the new trade tensions between east and west. what 0laf scholz did not say is that he supported new tariffs and curbs against chinese goods but he stopped short of that, although other european leaders are calling for more measures and more tariffs to be put on chinese goods, as have the us. so we will have to see how things play out over the coming weeks, whether or not europe will decide that china needs to curb its production and whether china is making too much. joining me now is professor helmut wagner from the fern—universitaet — or distance learning university — of hagen. he's written a book on the "economic rise of east asia". thanks forjoining us. what — if anything — has chancellor scholz
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achieved on this trip? 0laf scholz would like germany to proceed as an economic partner with china and he made it clear that he does not support the tough stance from the eu commission with the proposal of sanctions. does he support the tough stance from the us? the usa has completely different interests towards china compared to germany and he hopes this will continue the good economic relationship and he hopes to persuade china to make concessions regarding restrictions on access to the chinese market. it is regarding restrictions on access to the chinese market.— the chinese market. it is worth ”ointin the chinese market. it is worth pointing out — the chinese market. it is worth pointing out that _ the chinese market. it is worth pointing out that germany - the chinese market. it is worth pointing out that germany is i the chinese market. it is worth. pointing out that germany is not the chinese market. it is worth - pointing out that germany is not the only country to be upset about cheap chinese exports of things like solar panels and electric vehicles, but germany is the industrial manufacturing powerhouse in europe
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must have the most at stake? you are riuht. must have the most at stake? you are right- germany — must have the most at stake? you are right. germany cannot _ must have the most at stake? you are right. germany cannot afford - must have the most at stake? you are right. germany cannot afford to - must have the most at stake? you are right. germany cannot afford to lose i right. germany cannot afford to lose china as a customer for german products because german companies have invested too much in china for that, much more than other european countries. german companies produce more than 30—40% of their output for china, for example, volkswagen. fik. china, for example, volkswagen. ok. and how china, for example, volkswagen. 0k. and how would you describe the balance of power between these leaders? china is germany's most important trading partner. germany is the eu's biggest economy. the eu is a global powerhouse. how much was scholz representing germany today or was he really representing the eu ? germany is not representing the eu, they are two different interests,
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say, between france and germany, and germany and china, this cannot be put together. germanyjust once friendly relations with china. germany is more dependent on china than other european countries and it has more to lose in a trade war with china. in this respect it cannot afford the tough position of the european commission or the usa. 0laf scholz does not want to be thrown into a systemic competition between the usa and china, they are economic super giants. the usa and china, they are economic suner giante— super giants. thanks for “oining us. thank ou super giants. thanks for “oining us. thank you fort super giants. thanks for “oining us. thank you for the h super giants. thanks forjoining us. thank you for the invitation. - in other news... the boot—maker dr martens boss will step down later this year after a profit warning due to weak demand from the united states. shares dropped by a
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quarter on the news. the company said the fall in wholesale demand could hit profits to the tune of £20 million or $25 million across the year. the us paper and packaging giant international paper has agreed a $9.9 billion deal to buy its rival ds smith. the british firm — like the rest of the industry — did well from the boom in online shopping that came with the pandemic. however, it's since struggled with high costs. international paper says the deal will mean it can cut costs — it says. don't forget you can get in touch with me and some of the team on social media, i'm @tadthnright.
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hello from the bbc sport centre. two huge champions league matches later with barcelona hoping to make it to the semi—finals of the competition for the first time since 2019. they have a 3—2 advantage over paris saint—germain after the first leg.
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psg will need a better performance this time around from kylian mbappe if they're to overturn the quarterfinal defeat in the first leg in paris. mbappe failed to hit the target from three shots — but he scored a hat—trick the last time he played in barcelona. meanwhile, german side borussia dortmund will go into their second leg match against atletico madrid with a 2—1 deficit. dortmund will be without forward sebastien haller, who has has been ruled out with a recurrence of his left ankle injury. let's take a look at all the second leg fixtures for the quarterfinals. barcelona host paris saint —germain at the nou camp. while atletico madrid are in germany to play borussia dortmund. on wednesday manchester city and real madrid will meet at the etihad. it's 3—3 from the first leg. and bayern munich host arsenal — it's 2—2 from their first leg. well, england captain harry kane scored a penalty for bayern in the first leg and he's been speaking to the media today. his first season at the german club
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will finish without a bundesliga trophy after bayer leverkusen won the title at the weekend,

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