30 minutes left in the european trading day. from london, i'm guy johnson. vonnie: in new york, i'm vonnie quinn. this is the european close on "bloomberg markets." guy: big reaction to the nonmanufacturing ism number out of the united states. we have seen stocks come down. rates -- well, yields came down pretty sharply and have stayed down. first thing this morning, i got a chance to speak to chicago fed president charles evans. that conversation taking place in madrid. it was before the nonmanufacturing number came out, but it was after the manufacturing ism on tuesday. he says that he's not yet convinced as a result of that tuesday number that rates need to be cut again soon. >> i'm open-minded about the decision, and will learn more before the meeting at the end of this month, but i would say that the ism number was a negative

number for manufacturing. we received a number of reports over the last many months about trade uncertainties, about how manufacturing enterprises were a bit reticent to expand capacity. capital expenditures have been very weak. i think it is a little more confirmation of the reports we had been seeing, and i think it will be very important to see the progression from here. guy: does that point the fomc towards a rate cut? manufacturing is not a huge part of the u.s. economy, but it is a significant part of the u.s. economy. >> it certainly is. in my midwestern district, we have more manufacturing than the average. i've heard about this, and the weaknesses that come from trade uncertainties. the thing about monetary policy and what the right positioning is, i definitely think the fomc has been moving to what at one point last year looked like slightly modest, restrictive

position. now we have an accommodative position. whether or not one more rate cut is the right position or not, i think we will just have to go into the meeting and see. have a discussion about that. guy: chicago fed president charles evans speaking to me other woerle iran, before the latest ism data. we spoke in madrid at the global interdependent central banking series. as i say, that was before the ism nonmanufacturing number came out of the united states. we did also see some quite weak pmi data out of the euro zone as well, and out of the united kingdom. the pound is actually up today, mainly on the back of brexit. european stocks have reacted negatively to the ism data, though again, they've come off their earlier lows. the bond market is the main center of attraction when it comes to the moves. we have seen once again yields moving lower, prices higher.

vonnie: as you say, that ism nonmanufacturing services data coming in weaker than forecast. still in expansion, but several percentage points lower than last months, coming in at 52 and change. last month it was 56 and change. that really spooked the markets, but we are back to square on the s&p 500. this is after tuesday's major declines. see where this session brings us, but so far, perhaps some people taking advantage of the downturn in some of those stocks. the 10 year yield also recovering some browned -- some ground. definitely a lot of rotation going on today. two stocks i want to point to which haven't got much to do with the services data, pepsico increased pricing and still improved its forecast. that has analysts and investors very bullish on the stock, up

almost 4% today. not so, tesla, down 6% today. it did increase deliveries, something like 97,000 in the quarter. that was better than forecast, but it does point to orders not being as hot as maybe was inflated. guy: we are joined now by michael metcalfe, state street'globals head of microstrategy -- state street microstrategyof -- head of macro strategy. how much bad news has the bond market already got priced and? that's the question. guy: what do you think? michael: i think it's got quite a light priced in. it's fully priced to recession. it's certainly priced to slow down, and it seems like we are getting the slowdown. the debate is whether you get a full on recession. i think that is still early to tell.

guy: it's the worst payroll expectation in 30 years. if the number comes in around there, that's got to be a worry. michael: i on -- came on ready to say we need more data, and we just got a bit of negative data. the one thing i would say is that the u.s. consumer is coming up on a very strong quarter. doesn't mean it can't collapse completely, but given where income growth is and where the labor market currently is, it would be really unusual for the u.s. economy to tip into recession straightaway. vonnie: we are flashing amber on recession. isn't this what the top honchos have been saying anyway? we know the likes of clara to -- c -- of taft dashed of

clarida have been particularly dovish. michael: the fed is quite smart in terms of getting ahead of what could still be a midcycle slowdown or the beginning of recession, and the fed has been ahead of it. this data backs up what they've done, and it could also be used as justification for further action. the other thing you have to remember is the core pce trend, at least since the last meeting, hasn't been quite as fierce as we thought it would be. the question the markets will be asking now is what is stopping the fed delivering another ease. vonnie: volatility should be good for the street, right? michael: well, look. the one thing that is really clear is i would say investors in the bond market in particular have been ready for the slowdown , guided in part by the fed.

i think investor confidence actually has been weaker than business and consumer confidence for quite some time. investors are ready for this to an extent. they are just not ready for the recession. it doesn't mean that these ism's haven't been surprising, because they have. i think one of the things that equity markets in particular are relying on was the fact that the economy was quite firm, and this is mcnutt's begin to question that. it does mean that volatility is going to remain. we are relying on a single engine, the u.s. consumer, for global growth. point, we are in a very difficult place. this is a conundrum the fed faces. we are relying on awful lot on the consumer. any hint the market is going to jump all over it?

michael: it isn't just the consumer. looking at how stimulus is playing through the chinese economy is important also, but in general, you're right. investors are kinda prepared for that, which is why most of the money this year is going to fixed income. there hasn't been as much chasing of returns and equities as there has been in rates. i think there's acknowledgment that global growth is rolling over, and it is also running on her barely one engine, which is the u.s. consumer. guy: given what is going on in washington, the president may be looking for a win. one that would certainly drive the stock market higher would be a deal with china. what would a deal with china be worth on the s&p? 10%, 5%? think going to the comment about where money has gone this year, i think you say probably at least 5%, but it would also depend on how bond markets react to the news.

there would be a quid pro quo because rates would go up also. it is not as clear-cut as that, but it would certainly be a positive for risk in general. vonnie: the impeachment proceedings, are they going to be much more dangerous for the market and for investors than the mueller report, for example? have you begun to factor in all of the different outcomes? michael: i think it is difficult to say with any great precision. people do a lot of studies of what occurred during last impeachments and things. i think it is difficult to tell how to get after it will be for markets right now. i think we just have to see how it develops. certainly right now, the key talksreally is the trade and how they go. that is the first thing the market is focused on, along with u.s. consumer data. vonnie: obviously there are the

trade talks, and this data coming out of the u.s. that is slowing a little bit. another catalyst is the next quarter of earnings. will that be as important as it typically is for the street? michael: we are going to be so sensitive on growth news now because i think the confidence in the u.s. economy has been dented. one of the concerns, and this has been a concern throughout, it's quite a lot of the earnings forecasts looked to be a little backloaded, so there was a hope that things would be better by the end of the year, and that hope may be isn't going to get delivered, and also there will be a lot of focus on guidance towards 2020. for 2020 havet already come down. you might accept them some downward guidance in the earnings as well. i think there's definitely risk around that given that the narrative now is about slowing u.s. gross and -- u.s. growth

concern.being a guy: michael is going to stay with us, state street global that is putting pressure on the

banks. j.p. morgan and bank of america each down 4% on the week. vonnie: the airlines really dragging on the dow transports. delta down almost 3%.

united, american airlines down 1% apiece. remember, the function gtv under bloomberg allows you to browse off the charts featured on bloomberg tv. save your favorites for future reference. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ vonnie: live from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. guy: from london, i'm guy johnson. this is the european close on "bloomberg markets." let's check in on the bloomberg first word news. here with the details, courtney donohoe. -- an attackht at paris police headquarters. the employee was described as an administrator in the

intelligence unit. it is located across the street from the famed notre dame cathedral. the impeachment inquiry moves today.news phase formerfficials review ukraine envoy kurt volker. federal reserve chairman jay powell is facing new pressure to cut interest rates again, weakening economic data and slumping market raising the odds of a rate cut at this month's fed policymaking meeting. markets are placing about an 89% chance of a 0.25% reduction. british prime minister boris johnson called his brexit blueprint a compromise. johnson outlined the plan before parliament. pm johnson: our proposal should now provide the basis for rapid negotiations towards a solution in the short time that remains. i do not for one moment rezai are -- moment resigned from the

fact that we have shown great let's ability in the interest of reaching out accommodation with our european friends. courtney: johnson says he's had constructive talks with eu leaders, but admits a deal isn't close yet. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm courtney donohoe. this is bloomberg. vonnie: thank you. still with us, michael metcalfe, state street global head of macro strategy. is there a divergence? we have pepsi raising prices and seeing no problems. consumers well able to handle it. pepsi even augmenting global growth -- even augmenting growth projections. then you have the likes of delta airlines saying travel is being affected by this tariff war. how are you meant to parse these statements? michael: i think it's fair to say there are a lot of conflicting signs in the of us economy.

-- in the u.s. economy. within services themselves. muddled,re is a little but you have to remember that the u.s. economy, this is a record expansion we've had since the recession in 2008, and the consumer is still running along very strongly. it's just that investment -- isng is headed hating hesitating because the and varmint is soft. it is not too surprising that we are getting conflicting messages. it is just a question of how the fed decides to support the economy. vonnie: would the fed do anything to support this market, if not the economy? it does feel like we are only one event away from a bigger selloff. there are no people talking about recession and fears and growth fears and so on.

it wouldn't come as much of a surprise to anyone. with the fed step in? michael: i think so far, it's been clear that the fed has been very proactive. weretime last year, they talking about getting rates through neutral. now they've got rates back below , andal and accommodative you're potentially talking about more, but we will need to see how the economy develops. if we see clear evidence that a recession is coming, with the ism numbers as weak as they have been are not that sign, but if the data continues to head in that way, the fed has made it very clear they will do whatever they can. a supportivee factor for markets, i would say. guy: european data is also pretty bad at the moment. we saw that in the pmi's once again today. his europe keeping up -- is

europe keeping up stock wise? michael: it is cheap, and for a long-term investor, these are attractive levels. europe really needs is a trade war to go away. i think we could have made the argument that europe was cheap and under own for the best part of the year, maybe longer. the external environment has been really helpful for europe. that's the value trade, no doubt about it. guy: the vice president of the ecb was also speaking at the event in madrid earlier on today. waspoint that he was making that europe has been complacent on brexit. that actually, european politicians in particular our underpricing the effects it is going to have on the european economy. considering the european economy is already being lashed by the

trade war, how bad could the data be if we get a hard brexit? michael: i think i would tend to agree with his comment. it is all very well to say that operations are being made, but when you look at some projections the banks are making , of course they can be wrong, but what is best described as a theen stop in growth in economy right now, they are both vulnerable at this point in the cycle. knows what the forecast will be come but you got to assume central-bank projections must be close to the truth, and they are very negative. vonnie: michael, thank you. our thanks to michael metcalfe, state street global head of macro strategy. checking u.s. markets now. the s&p 500 is up more than

0.33%. nasdaq is up more than 0.5 percent. the dow is the laggard, just up about 0.1%. airlines really weighing on the dow today. delta down 2.5% after saying it is definitely seeing a big impact on business travel. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

♪ guy: from london, i'm guy johnson. vonnie: from new york, i'm vonnie quinn. this is the european close on "bloomberg markets." it's time for a look at some of the biggest business stories in the news right now. pepsico says it expects to meet or beat its full-year revenue growth target. sales were better-than-expected in the latest quarter. in frito-lay'ses snack foods, helping offset the decline in soda.

earnings at fashion retailer h&m have returned to growth after a three-year slump. h&m'sedit is going to well-received summer selection. good news, bad news for tesla and it released third-quarter delivery figures. the electric carmaker livered a but --number of cars, carmaker delivered a record 97,000 cars, but elon musk hyped 100,000 cars. shares falling on the news. quite a day for the u.s. equity indices. they've been very flimsy. the s&p up 0.33% now. some buying coming back into stocks. treasuries seeing the opposite of that early on after the services data. guy: earlier on, there was a

risk the ftse was going to break 7000. we bounced off the earlier lows. we are now 77 points away from that level. we have continued to see brexit affecting the pound, and by extension the ftse 100. cac 40 is bouncing back. some luxury goods didn't get as affected as the airbus story as some anticipated. the terrace out of the united states have been a factor. germany is closed today, so no trading on the dax. stoxx 600 absolutely flat. we are counting you down to the european close. that's next. this bloomberg -- this is bloomberg. ♪ everyone uses their phone differently.

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plus, get $250 back when you buy an eligible phone. that's simple. easy. awesome. call, click, or visit a store today. guy: 30 seconds until the end of regular trading in europe. ignore the dax. that is the bright red area in the middle of the screen.

the german market is closed. elsewhere around europe, a mixed picture. the ftse 100 being affected by the pound, which has recovered. this is the stoxx 600. most of the day very tight trading range. big move yesterday. today marking time. traders were waiting for the nonmanufacturing ism data come through. not much reaction to the european data. we did get a reaction to the nonmanufacturing data. growing volatility. it has taken us back to where we were. we are now flat. let's take a look at the major markets. the dax is out today, but we have the ftse 100 down .6%. it did flirt with the 7000 level earlier on. we got pretty close. the cac 40 is benefiting, luxury stocks having a good day. in the swiss market, the smi back to flat after quite a bumpy

last hour and a half. let's take a look at the grr to give us a look at the sector breakdown story. we do have a more defensive bias when it comes to the sector story, which is worth bearing in mind. the bonds have stayed down. the bond yields have stayed on the floor. take a look at the u.s. two year. we go sharply lower on reports of u.s. yields. food and beverage, health care, very bond like proxy sectors. .5% to the good. bottom of the market, let me show you where the weakness is. it is in oil and gas. oil has suffered. it has been suffering for a number of sessions. oil and gas trading down 1%. these are the sectors that have been beaten up, weighing us down

today. , that concerntor about the global manufacturing slow down still being represented. let's take a quick look at individual stocks. we will talk about the luxury sector. the airbus story is the pinnacle of this story. airbus has bounced back. the sense is the u.s. tariffs are not as onerous as anticipated. we are going to see what airbus does and what europe does in response to this end six months down the road. remember airbus has a claim against the u.s.. look at lvmh. that is look at the european close. e:maine: here in the -- vonni here in the u.s., it has been a rolling kind of day. after the date of this morning we saw indices down 1% and then

we were positive for a time on the indices, excepting the transportation index. the dow down less than .1%. markets continue to digest the data and factoring things like the president's comments, what richard clarinet might say later on in new york, and might add to the conversation on that services data. as 10 year was down as far 1.50, it is now back up to 1.54. the dollar index lighter. that's get to some of the individual stocks i was referring to. delta airlines down 2.9%. all of the major airlines are lower after delta said business travel is being affected. tesla down 6.5%.

97,000 deliveries, not quite enough. in one of the better news .tories, pepsi cok it said consumers were able to take the price hikes. guy: you've been talking about constellation brands. let's talk about the wider story around the tariffs. stocks mainly rising after the u.s. announced tariffs on imported drinks and fashion items. less severe than some had been anticipating. joining us is bloomberg opinion columnist. it is not a complete let off, but it feels like it a little bit. andrea: it is a let off for the luxury companies. particular for luxury goods, they have escaped what was expected to be punitive tariffs. vonnie: what happened? did the buyer suddenly get religion? result,for the better

did some of these retailers, even h&m, we are not talking about the luxury end of the market, what happened with inventory? did buyers get religion and figure out what the customer wanted? andrea: i think h&m has been doing good things over the last couple of years. they have realized they had a problem, they are facing pressure, they have sharpened their style. it is paying off. guy: returning to the tariffs story, there is some concernpred their the u.s. may impose a carousel strategy and start leaning on different brands. this may feel like a let off today, but do you think some of these luxury goods companies will be completely breathing more easily now or do you think -- they are such an obvious target for the u.s. andrea: they are.

there are two elements for why they cannot relax. if tariffs come back, lvmh gets 25% itself. it is protected because it makes products in the u.s.. most luxury goods are made in europe. while they have been able to take this off their list of worries, there are an awful lot more that are bubbling under. we have the hong kong situation. justhinese trade war, and this idea that luxury dells well -- does well when we feel happy and wealthy. with all of the uncertainty in the world, nothing could be further from the truth. and gyrating stockmarket is never good for expensive purchases. vonnie: is any executive coming out and speaking truth, saying what they need to do to get ahead of any potential situation? andrea: in terms of tariffs or in terms of the market? vonnie: all of the challenges you just laid out.

andrea: with hong kong it is quite a profitable market. just generally, it is true across the retail market. you have to have the products that customers want. that means freshness, that means newness. even if we are feeling slightly more nervous, there would be that great handbag we have not got that adds to our drop -- adds to our wardrobe. concentrating on design and newness is a way to alleviate some of the issues. guy: andrea, always a pleasure. british prime minister boris johnson outlining -- in parliament, but he admitted a deal is some ways ways. joining us from brussels is maria tadeo. he only has a few days. how much time can he take? maria: what we hear on the ground is essentially, at least

when it comes to the european perspective, this is probably too little, too late. they will need dates to answer to the new proposal, which sees northern ireland being treated differently to the rest of the u.k. it is a yes to the single market, no to a custom union. forst johnson is saying is still do or die, but there is still time to get the deal done. today when we are getting the reaction and digesting the proposal, the two sides are talking past each other, both on the timing but also the content of the new plan. vonnie: -- guy: what is it that brussels does not like? this is a relatively new proposal. a somewhat new proposal from the u.k.. give us the specifics of where the problems lie.

maria: the irish government still does not by this and they say this is not as good as the backstop. this does not protect what is promised to be the all ireland economy. and youd see checks would see different treatment, especially when you look at the regulation between three different parts, the united kingdom, northern ireland, and the republic of ireland. they will tell you we do not have the level of detail that would make this as good as the backdrop so we are not happy. the eu is not happy that this is being framed as a final offer. if anything, they see this as the start of the negotiation, which many would tell you there is no time to get this done before the 17th, so there is already speculation about another summit or perhaps the eu offering an extension if boris johnson does not ask for one. that leads to a once bigger problem. you listen to? the u.k. parliament or the government?

vonnie: with the irish government saying checks will not be allowed, and that is been the position from the beginning, and the u.k. has abided by this position. then you have a statement made this our saying northern ireland will not be trapped by dublin or the eu. what kind of voice does northern ireland have with boris johnson? maria: this is tricky. you're going into very internally u.k. politics. boris johnson does need the dup to get the deal through the finish line. one of the things the european government is saying today is that you feel the deal would get the numbers. the europeans have said we are not willing to look at anything that will not go through the u.k. parliament. boris johnson claims he finally has that so they do not get what the problem for the eu is. when you look at the republic of ireland, there is a major stakeholder. the europeans have always made it clear publicly they are not

willing to approve anything they are not happy with. they also have a veto right. when it comes to behind the scenes, it is fair to say there is no pressure on dublin to change anything fundamental. you have to look at this from a european perspective. they have an incentive to keep the irish happy because they will be the first point of entry with the united kingdom and they want to protect the single market. they view this as the crown jewel of the european union. vonnie: we will continue to monitor. that is maria tadeo. thank you. guy: we have wrapped up the day in europe. germany was out today. the cac 40 drops a little bit during the option. we did see the ftse 100 flat. volume 100 -- volume fading into the ism number and then higher as that number came through. switzerland fairly flat. if you want to carry on the market coverage, a bit more analysis of what the u.s. data

is telling us right now, tune into the cable show at the top of the hour on bloomberg radio, dab digital radio in the london area and around the world on all your uber devices. this is -- all of your bloomberg devices. this is bloomberg. ♪

live from new york, i am vonnie quinn. from london, i am guy johnson. let's check in with bloomberg first word news. here is courtney donohoe. courtney: a stunning attack at the police headquarters in paris. an employee armed with a knife killed at least four police officers before he was killed. the killer was described as an administrator who works in the intelligence unit. the paris police headquarters

located right across the street from the notre dame cathedral. in the midst of all of the impeachment talk, president trump will speak with a friendly crowd. he is going to florida to announce an executive order aim to protecting medicare. he is speaking at the retirement hub one hour from orlando and it is considered a must stop for republican candidates. courtney: another sign of labor market weakness in the u.s.. initial jobless claims were up 4000 to 219,000. claims are near historically low levels. the government comes out with september jobs reports tomorrow. areong kong, the protests prompting -- according to local media reports, the government will ban facemasks at public gatherings. that would make it easier for police to identify demonstrators. the hong kong police groups are calling for curfews. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries.

i am courtney donohoe. this is bloomberg. vonnie: thank you. it is time for our stock of the hour. shares of tesla down more than 6% as the electric vehicle makers third-quarter deliveries failed to match up to recently elevated expectations. this in spite of setting a new record. taylor riggs unwraps all of that for the us. taylor: we know the delivery number, 97,000, which was a 100,000but missed the number elon musk had talked about. we wonder how the stock would have performed how that -- had that email not been late. it comes debt -- had that email not been leaked. some analysts wonder if the u.s. market has been saturated. bernstein said his demand data points look solid. orders are growing for the

second quarter in a row. the model three inventories are under three weeks. i'm curious on earnings to see how the demand picture shapes up. another theme of this continues to be the average selling price. we have a chart showing the model three is what they are doing in terms of the most volume, but they have the lowest average selling price. they are selling $3.7 million of those. the acts, which is the most appropriate, around $90,000, they are selling much less. that is the big concern for analysts. you are selling a lot of these lower-priced cars, which is eating into margins. that profitability continues to be elusive. earnings at the end of the month. what is the expectation? what do analysts think will come through at that point? taylor:, and take a look at the chart i am showing on my

terminal. it is all about the average analyst price target relative to where the shares are trading. markets feel to be bullish as the stocks are trading below the average analyst estimate. i will highlight one analyst, evercore, saying the focus for that earning at the end of the month turns to free cash flow. q3 can be a bellwether for how the rest of the year shapes up. all eyes go back to the income statement on free cash flow and profitability. guy? guy: taylor, thank you very much indeed. it is time for a bloomberg exclusive. we have been speaking with goldman sachs international ceo. he talks with bloombergs francine lacqua about the trade china, plus as in little bit more. focus is making sure we are focused on our chinese client base. it is a big and broad client base. we have been there for a long

time and let many innovations in the chinese market. our reputation amongst the chinese corporate community, amongst the chinese government community is strong and we will continue to build on that. it is critical for the long-term growth of the chinese economy that they have an official financial system and capital markets that function. we want to play our part, and that is what we have committed on doing. francine: what you see going on with the u.s.-china trade? are we going to find an agreement are are we going to be boiling over for the next decade? richard: it feels a bit more back-and-forth. these are two of the world's great economies. the good news is they are trading. as long as these economies continue to trade, there will be tensions. issues will diverge from time to time. put yourself in the u.s.

position. what the u.s. is trying to do is renegotiate at supply lines. if it can get better terms for trade, that is good for the u.s. economy. china is trying to protect its own interest. the important thing is they continue to trade and they continue to talk. on that basis, we can move forward. there will be agreements along the way, but there'll be no such thing as a permanent agreement. francine: what kind of steps have you taken with abu dhabi following the scandal? richard: we continue to have good relationships in abu dhabi and do business. they are working with the relevant authorities around the world to try to reach a suitable resolution to the issue. how close are you defining finding a resolution with malaysia? richard: the work is ongoing and

it will happen at the right time. guy: goldman sachs international ceo speaking to bluebirds francine lacqua -- two bloombergs francine lacqua earlier. vonnie: coming up, it is our global battle of the charts. this is bloomberg. ♪

vonnie: it is time for our global battle of the charts. you can see the charts on bloomberg. just run the function gtv . in new york is alix steel. i think a guy and i are both talking about gold so this could be an epic battle. ism and the u.s., a big rollover. the white line is the equity to gold ratio. we just saw gold beat equities in the third quarter. as you can see, they pretty much track each other as the line goes down. you can see gold rallying as the line goes up. it means equities are rallying and gold is selling off.

we have seen a tiny bit of that as gold reclaims the $1500 an ounce level. will we see are relating to what was on 2016 as the equities fall out of bed and gold skyrockets higher? that is when oil was at $26 a barrel in 2016. we get there again? i will break that down. you can check out my chart on bloomberg on gtv . vonnie: markets are behaving strangely lately. you never know. guy, what you have for us? guy: i will be talking about gold. if you want to beat alix steel, you have to out-commodity her on commodities. this chart does relate to gold and whether gold can sustain the rally we have seen ablate. -- of late. one of the key drivers of the gold rally has been negative rates. we see negative rates around the world. in august we saw a peak in the near term for the negative rates. we got up to $18 trillion worth

of negative yielding debt. we are back down to 14. that is still absolutely enormous number. one of the key drivers of gold is above 1500 has been there. you can see the connection. rates continue to rise, you see gold tracking that accurately. however, we have seen the white line, which is the amount of negative yielding debt rollover. it may not be a permanent rollover, and judging by the data maybe we could start to see it coming back again. nevertheless, gold is still trading above the 1500 level. if the number comes down anymore , that could be a huge drag on the gold price, and one of the primary drivers beginning to rollover. you can pay attention to the chart. you can find all of the fantastic charts on gtv . vonnie: out-commodity alix steel? i don't know. guy: i have to try. vonnie: that is a high bar.

you did not quite reach it. alix steel is still the maven of commodities. she wins today for her wonderful gold chart. they were two wonderful charts. do not forget to join alix steel for "commodities edge" in an hour from now, 1:00 eastern, 6:00 london time. coming up here is "balance of power" with david westin. libby cantrill joins him today. let's check the u.s. markets one more time. it continues to be -- down .1, up .1, this is bloomberg. ♪

david: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i'm david westin. welcome to "balance of power," where the world of politics meets the world of business.

on the brief today, carl riccadonna on the u.s. nonmanufacturing ism numbers. from london, david powell on weakening numbers and germany, and from washington, steven dennis on today's deposition in the house impeachment inquiry. we got the ice and numbers. not -- the ism numbers. not encouraging. carl: weaker than economists were anticipating. in line with what we saw in the ism.acturing ism concerns about potential recession in the u.s.. i would caution that even though we see the manufacturing sector in recession, that is not consistent with the broader economy dipping into recession. our forecast is for gdp growth to be 1.8% in the back half of this year. that is not yet reflected in the economic data. the data looked more like an economy growing above 2%. now that slower