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tom: good morning, this is bloomberg and i am tom mackenzie. an holding pattern ahead of inflation data. jb dimon warns the u.s. economy is not out of the woods adding the fed should wait before cutting interest rates and u.k. data will be watched by the bank of england. it will stickiness move the dial for the boe? let's check in on markets. after modest losses yesterday futures looking brighter as we lead up to wage data and the data print.

jay powell suggests they are getting closer to a point where they have confidence to cut rates. will data get them closer today? or cause fluctuations? european futures with gains after modest losses. ftse futures are up as we look to the data, markets pricing in a cost -- cut in august. back above the 5000 level after modest losses nasdaq pointing higher. let's look cross asset, keeping our eye on currency. the pound in focus as we look ahead to labor and jobs data out

of the u.k.. 4.09 and not a lot of movement so far. the pound at 128. we will see if it changes. bitcoin crossed 72,000 yesterday. as money flows into etf's continue, bitcoin down. iron saw the biggest drop of almost 17%. a buildup of stockpiles at chinese ports. up 8/10 of a percent. let's cross over to asia. april hong is in singapore. what is standing out about these markets? >> chinese equities recover,

hang seng extending gains from yesterday. seeing chinese names gaining ground for three days. developers are on the booth and investors shrug off underwhelming npc. we talk about tech it has risen 20% from january. flip the board because it is worth talking about real estate. we've been watching china, because of investment-grade credit, moody's cut it to junk territory and chinese lenders reluctant to lend or provide assistance because they want

collateral before they sign off on a loan. let's flip the board and zero in on the yen. boj governor talking about weakness in consumption, prompting sectors to pair back that's that we will see an imminent move. the yen is weaker than the greenback. if you look since the start of the month we are seeing dollar-yen pull down, putting pressure on equities and jg these are feeling the pressure hull. turning her attention to u.s. cpi. tom: april hong on japanese

equities. of let's get you some breaking news on earnings. an italian insurance giant with a beat. it is a beat on the full year net income. operating profit is a beat. estimates had been for six .8 one billion euros and estimates had been for one euro 24. they have a full dividend of 128. there had been concerned love the fourth quarter would be softer. over the last 12 months the stock is up 33%.

i will speak to the managing director philip, so stay tuned. we are counting to inflation data out of the u.s.. the numbers will give investors clues. let's bring in bloomberg to jill. what will you be watching for today? >> a lot to look out for. january was hotter than expected. we will look for: off in core inflation. bloomberg's thinking car prices are contributing to that. we would like to see sign of gradual cooling. not sure if we will get that.

the other thing is whether we get clarity on stickiness of housing. there was a weird spike in the january figure as it related to owners equivalent rent. we got information saying there were changes in how we waited things. poor is ongoing concern and we will have to see whether we get any clarity. even if we do not expect a cut, the fact that we have a meeting is why all eyes are on february cpi.

tom: jamie dimon weighed in with his views on the u.s. economy suggesting he is more concerned than others about risk of recession in the u.s.. jill: interesting to hear from him. while everyone else is pricing in a risk of soft landing, he sees the audits at half of that. raising alarm on the fact that despite data, maybe we are at risk. tom: i'm going to interrupt you because we have a redhead crossing the terminal. bank of japan mulling a march hike with the outcome to call. that is the redhead across the terminal. the japanese yen is at 147, paring weakness, down 3/10 of

1%. japanese yields are at 0.77 as well, a marginal move. japanese yen at 147, so bank of japan is mulling a march hike. will be hearing from the boj governor about the economy recovering as there are pockets of weakness. reporting from bloomberg that the boj is looking at a march hike ending negative rates. more details as we get it. keep across japanese assets. jill, let's get back on the details. i was interrupting you to break

that redhead. views on the interest rate and with the fed should be doing? >> he is saying they need more data to make decisions. that is where february statistics come into play. interesting signals, the payroll was strong, slight uptick in unemployment and underlying data was more favorable to a gradual cooling off. the case jamie is making is the idea that data needs to be significant. do they have enough information? not yet but we will see who are

the cpi print leaves us. what the next meeting what will we hear from jay powell? it's all about timing. tom: bloomberg's jill, thank you, indeed. we talk about fiscal stimulus we have to think about the budget plans. a budget proposal would deliver more services, tax breaks and price controls funded through taxes on the wealthy. what is standing out to you? >> how you get the ballooning deficit under control, the biden

administration is $1.6 trillion per year, addressing the deficit. 1.6 trillion over the decade. bidens approaches to tax corporations. corporations, anyone getting a lot of revenue including european corporations that get revenue from the united states. trying to stem the hemorrhaging. and a lot of pushback from the gop. the only big major change was an increase in defense spending, a smaller increase than some around the world.

the kind of support he wants to give the lower middle class will not be helpful. at the end of the day you will remember the big selloff, a lot was centered around the fiscal deficit. if you can't get that under control the world suffers. tom: i think about how this will be implemented. what parts will be implemented? you're pointing out that this is an election ploy as we build to november. thank you very much indeed.

the proposed budget coming through. let's check what else is on the docket today. jobs data in 45 minutes, markets and traders pricing in a cut. will the data change that view? average growth slowing with the unemployment rate at 3.7%. at 8 a.m. vonda lyon will be speaking about the leaders summit about ukrainian support as they consider budget challenges. expectations that core will come in at 2.7% following jay

powell's testimony where he signaled varying closer to cutting interest rates. will the data give them the confidence to get a clear view on the first cut? ukraine scrambles to build fortifications as the momentum of the battlefield is shifting in russia's favor. details on that story. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> welcome back to bloomberg. the boj is getting closer to deciding whether to hike rates

next week. it is on the wire for the boj. they are waiting for wage data on friday to make the final decision. too close to call. if they hold they are considering a hold. edging closer. i hike is coming out of negative rates, checking on the yen at 14752. softer by 4/10 of a percent. we will keep across the story. governor of bank of japan saying he is seeing resilience and the

economy is recovering. president zelenskyy says ukraine is racing to complete defensive fortifications as russian forces go on the offensive. the deadlock is shifting momentum. what has president zelenskyy been saying about ukraine's effort to bolster defenses? >> you mentioned 2000 kilometers. zelenskyy's government is working to complete that and it looks like they've had to accelerate the work.

they want to build this out and they've also warned as the war enters its third year. tom: what has u.s. intelligence said about their views? bill: you have the top u.s. intelligence chiefs top u.s. intelligence chiefs talking to senators about worldwide threats focused on ukraine. bill burns said without additional western military help that russia will make gains on the battlefield. we were talking about ukrainian offensive.

we are now the reverse offensive . tom: bill faries with the details on intelligence agencies. thank you for the details. now to haiti where the unelected prime minister ariel henry has resigned. according to the presidents, the traditional council will appoint an interim leader following weeks of violence. they have committed tumor money for haley -- haiti. they 61-year-old former banker won the leadership of the democratic party last year and told the newspaper he will seek

the nomination to run for president. elections are set for october. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ tom: welcome back to daybreak europe. bloomberg reporting there in closer to a decision on whether or not to hike. either in march or april, to close to call. they will be looking at wage negotiations on friday, really consequential in japan and they may send day hike signal. likely to be a hawkish hold. they are split on the line on

whether to hike and wage data are will be consequential. they are currently split on march or april. the japanese yen trading down 3/10 of a percent against the dollar after strength came through. first hike since 2007. other top story is this tuesday, oracle shares surged after spike in bookings attributed to cloud business. revenue is ahead of estimates. they are competing with amazon, microsoft and alphabet.

talking with a key member of nvidia we have a chart that shows what has been going on if you want to double your gains or losses. you've seen the inflows. have to billion u.s. dollars worth of etf as investors tried to get exposure. in the last two trading sessions nvidia is down. this is designed to double load gains or losses and shares pulled in fresh capital last week. another way investors are getting exposure to the ai chipmaker. upside of over 100% year to

date. let's move to bitcoin because we are target about records. 70 2000 was the line they crossed. fidelity in others approved by the commission in january pulling in inflows. 72,000 was the level it notched. lower today but the split will come in april putting momentum into the currency. investors count down

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tom: good morning. i'm tom mackenzie and these are the stories that set your agenda. boj closer to raising interest rates. the decision hinges on fridays numbers from spring wage talks. markets in a holding pattern ahead of data which could influence the federal reserve's next move and jamie dimon warns the u.s. economy is not out of the woods saying recession is not off the table in the fed should wait before cutting interest rates. modest downside for u.s. and european stocks. today the picture is brighter. the cpi print at 1:30 u.k. time. 6/10 of a percent gain.

u.k. futures looking to add 57 points. a decent session. markets are expecting the boe to cut in august. s&p futures above 5002 hundred, looking to add 4/10 of a percent. going higher today 6/10 of a percent. we've been talking about lines crossing on the bank of japan on the knife's edge decision on whether or not to hike for the first time since 2007. the question is whether it comes in march or april. the dater will be consequential.

let's have a look on the u.s. 10 year. 409 as we lead up to the inflation print. the expectation it inflation will moderate in the print later today euro on year. the pound is one of the best performing currencies. labor data could move the currency. nearly looking at iron ore at 108. the squeeze came through yesterday. let's get what is happening with the boj. bloomberg reporting that they are going to make this decision next week and it is balanced in terms of whether they raise interest rates in march core

hold off until april. if they hold off there will be a hawkish hold, that is one scenario. let's bring in paul jackson. where does this leave the thinking on the boj? >> we have a poised decision next week. some officials favor march, thinking they have seen enough data coming in strong. we saw demand from ringo last week saying average demand has much more pressure from the union side for higher wages amid talk of raising wages to drive

the inflation cycle. we are hearing officials favor april, that has been the baseline and gives the bank of japan time to include smaller firms in smaller companies. the big companies yes, they can give big way raises but what about smaller firms? i guess we've got figures on friday from the results of the wage talks and if they come in hot expectations for a march move are going to get a fire underneath them. tom: wage negotiation data is out on friday, the most

important data out of japan. the governor has been giving testimony on the economy. what have we been hearing and how has that informed our views on the economy? >> the governor's job is not to give signaling about what is about to happen. he reiterates what he has said before, so he said there are pockets of weakness in consumption. with the market hyped up, there is overreaction to the comment on week consumption. it is realistic. consumption has not been great. the economy is not gangbusters.

enough evidence to suggest the time has come to move away from negative interest rates. that is the turning point we are approaching. tom: paul jackson joining us from japan on the consideration, whether the boj goes in march or april. they are preparing for the first hike since 2007. counting down to inflation data from the u.s., giving investors clues on the fed. let's bring in bloomberg's dan. does this change the view on the fed? core inflation will be at 3.7%. how are you thinking about the impact of this data when it lands at a thump? >> you have to be significant to

change the federal reserve perspective. the central message from jay powell is what he has been saying for months, at some point, they expect inflation to slow to an extent that they can reduce interest rates. that message has not changed. it would have to take a confluence of circumstances to knock them off that. pce inflation, the two percent target, is significantly lower and headed toward 2%. tom: worth reminding viewers of the key gauge that the fed focuses on in terms of expenditures. your views on jp morgan and jamie dimon. he says a recession is not off

the table. is this a cautionary call? >> as you say consensus moved from that in the final months of last year but he is right that you can have a recession and not know it until one month after it ends. recessions in america are are disdainful of the gdp rule. in that sense, he is not off the money. tom: ok, dan moss with a preview of inflation data, will be hearing from jamie dimon cautioning that recession is not off the table. january jobs data is out in 20

minutes time. numbers will be watched by the bank of england. let's bring in anna. what can we expect today? >> good morning. data will be awkward for the boe a. it cannot take a clear signal from the unemployment rate. boe is unlikely to close a lot of weight. the second most important thing is which chris has been on a fast decline. is likely to show a decline so

on the whole economy, wage gains are likely to stay unchanged in the private sector measure is likely to be 6.3%. this increase is largely anticipated. overall the boe will move through as well. tom: wage data will look sticky but priced in. last time i checked markets where pricing in a cut in august. >> as long as there is no nasty upside surprise, that is still ok. wage growth is running

higher-than-expected. we think the most important indicator is headline inflation because as long as headline inflation settles at 2%, that is the framework they are using. inflation is on track. remarks from the chief economist suggested not taking the may meeting is the first to cut. june is probably looking more likely for the easing cycle. tom: and as we look ahead to the inflation data engine could be the first cut in a long time. european futures pointing to

gains. s&p up 4/10 of a percent. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: happy tuesday. getting up to speed, good and closer to a decision as to whether to move out of negative policy since 2007. it remains on a knife edge whether they do that next week or in april. it could be a hawkish hold. crucially is wage data this friday that could be

consequential. to close to call now but they need to hike interest rates and the question is do they do it next week or in april and data could be meaningful. looking at the japanese yen, softer. one of the corporate's that dominated the agenda in the u.s., with blockbuster weight-loss drug may be covered for medicare after regulators expanded approval. as the first time weight loss therapy has been approved to prevent cardiovascular events. soaring sales help boost income. total income came in at four and

a half billion dollars. how much will this do in the months ahead and what do they do with all the money they're generating? >> the fda approval gives them an additional argument that this is for other diseases. this is extremely important. this creates an effort. turning to holdings, -- along

with the drugmaker. tom: what is the competitive threat right now? we know eli lilly is wrapping up its efforts around it. is there a consequential challenge this year? >> absolutely. they have the weight loss market to themselves for a couple of years, but now they are facing competition from eli lilly. these companies have known each other and been competitors in the diabetes space. people see these two companies duking it out. tom: bloomberg's naomi, thank you with the indeed for novo holdings as they build out there expansion and the market for weight loss drugs.

i will be speaking with novo holdings ceo at 9:30 a.m., so tune in. to france where european elections are being seen as a dry run for the 2027 presidential race. marie is ahead with her party willing momentum, but is there anything emmanuel macron can do? let's get more from bloomberg's anya. why is it crunch time for emmanuel macron? we are looking ahead to june. >> indeed. these are vital in showing micron -- emmanuel macron as the antidote. we will get a sense of whether

they can make it in 2027. tom: was the strategy to curtail marie and what is maria's strategy? how does she build up success? >> if you read our big take until the very end you will see we've done reporting from normandie, which is remarkable in the sense that it represents what could happen in france. emmanuel macron used to be strong there. essentially maria's party wins almost all those seats and now she is building a reputation as a respectable party with lawmakers trying to analyze a

party with a history of anti-semitism and xenophobia. they are trying to stick to issues people are complaining about and that means the lack of doctors or that a lot of people do not feel they are reaping the benefits of pro-business reforms. emmanuel macron smith bonds is that he is picturing the elections as an existential fight against the far right, and to support ukraine against russia, because he is picturing her as the ally of vladimir putin who could told the war in favor of the russian president. tom: while that may sound familiar to those who tuned into president biden's address of president trump. similar challenges.

is emmanuel macron guaranteed again in 2027? >> he cannot run for a third consecutive mandate in 2027, so he has to appoint a successor. he has failed. many where emerging as prime minister, his former prime minister. but none of them has posed themselves as the next possible successor. tom: bloomberg's ania on that bloomberg big take, thank you. plenty more coming up, this is bloomberg. ♪ whatever they may be. all that planning has paid off. looks like you can make this work. we can make this work. and the feeling of confidence that comes from our advice... i can make this work. that seems to be universal.

i can make this work. i can make this work. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 clients are likely to recommend us. because advice worth listening to is advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial.

♪ tom: welcome back to bloomberg

daybreak: europe. the scope is around the bank of japan and decision to hike. too close to call, coming around to the view that they need to hike and whether it happens next week or if they hold off until april. he wage data will be consequential. they hold they will look at a hawkish hold, flagging a hike. the debate is finally balanced and there will be great scrutiny on the detail on friday. the yen is under pressure but after the strength we've seen, 147 on the japanese yen. let's see how things are shaping up.

inflation data in the u.s. dropping at 1:30 p.m. u.k. time. we are looking in terms of where the rates are. the move out of negative territory will happen and negative rates in japan are likely to end. u.s. inflation, expectations coming through from the new york fed survey, consumer expectations ticked up in february. they job significantly but that potentially is a fly in the ointment as inflation grinds lower in the u.s.. let's look at the expectations in terms of where inflation is

likely to land. that's move from durable goods. and a lot of work being done and it is all about services as you can see. on the core basis year on year inflation is expected to be at 3.7%, but look for services. speaking to managing director philip on earnings and novo holdings ceo joins the pulse at 9:30 a.m., london time. up markets today is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

anna: good morning from london's. i'm anna edwards alongside guy johnson and kriti gupta. here's what you need to know.