sonali: welcome to "bloomberg markets." i'm sonali basak. stocks are on the rise in bonds falling as key inflation data is out tomorrow morning. let's check the markets as we way to absorb those data. you have the s&p 500 study at about 5190 on the date, .2% lower on the day. nasdaq 100 roughly flat. biggest difference in the bond market. call it a relief rally because you saw yields soaring higher yesterday. we are back at 4.73, five-basis point move lower. 10-year yield also five basis points lower ahead of inflation data. let's look under the surface of the market. moderna the biggest gainer in

the s&p 500. analysts praising its skin cancer treatment. it cut the likelihood of cancer in half after a recent study. modernity is developing a vaccine for rsv it will unveil next month. we are monitoring shares of royal caribbean, which are tumbling, having its worst day since january. despite record demand for cruises this year, and just last year it hit an all-time high, some of the steam out of the bag here. wall street is awaiting the cpi print tomorrow morning, and consumers are concerned about price pressures, especially when it comes to the grocery store. michael mckee is here to break it all down. michael: it has been an issue for american consumers for some time, grocery prices going out. lots of complaints from people who fill their shopping carts and pay a lot more money. the good news is grocery prices are going down, at least up at a much more slow rate. you look at what has happened

the last couple years, and yes, we did see prices rise along with general inflation, 11.4% in 2022. as of last month they were rising 2.2% a year. you see a little bit of what goes on, when commodity prices rise those push up food prices. they have come down son, and food prices are coming down some. we will see what we see tomorrow in terms of the march numbers. the other thing you look at is why consumers have been upset. that's easy, food prices have gone up and they stay at those higher rates. when you look at what happens over time, food prices like everything else are always going up. that is the top white line there. that is the index. that shows you what happens to food prices overall. the month-on-month changes have come way, way down. one more of those kind of charts, we've heard a lot of

complaints about prices because -- egg prices because they had gone way up and people were blaming joe biden and the rest of the administration for high eg g prices. look what happened, they cratered last year. they have come back up again today. the reason they cratered and are going up again, bird flu, came, went, back again. it causes a lot of shortages and that pushes prices up. it is a political issue, though. according to an average of what the presidents saw during their time in office, grocery prices under joe biden were the second-highest of all the presidents since 1960. richard nixon was the highest. you remember the paul volcker inflation. then comes joe biden. you can look at this as something you could use against biden in the campaign. if that is the case, you have to put the onus on donald trump for

having so many job losses during his term, averaging 783,000 jobs lost a year, and joe biden's gained over 4.9 million a year. that is only because you are averaging. the point is food prices went up, food prices have come down, we saw a lot of people lose jobs , those people got their jobs back. it's not really the president's fault. sonali: certainly a significant pocketbook issue, and a staggering statistic. mike mckee, we thank you so very much for your time. that was a big topic of discussion at our desk today. let's discuss this with u.s. secretary of agriculture tom vilsack. we thank you so much for joining us on a critical issue here. you think about the issue of inflation and as it pertains to food prices, farms across america, how are you navigating it? sec. vilsack: first of all, in terms of food inflation, there is a significant event between what people are paying at the

grocery store in relationship to what they're paying at restaurants. what you will find is if you go deeper into those numbers, the opportunities that grocery stars are improving significantly can but it is restaurants where we are seeing a bit of high inflation. you have to dissing us between that, number one. -- distinguish between that, number one. number two, it is true that commodity prices of come down, but farmers get 15 to $.20 or so for every food dollars spent at the grocery store. commodity prices don't have as much of an impact on food prices as you might think. the issue with avian influenza, clearly a component of the egg price increase. the good news is we are not seeing anywhere near the level we saw last year, the bad news is we continue to grapple with it. sonali: if not inflation, what is the biggest challenge faced by rural america today? sec. vilsack: i think the biggest challenge long-term is the loss of farms and farmland. since 1981, we've seen a loss of

477,970 farms in america. that is the entire equivalent of farms in north dakota, south dakota wisconsin, minnesota, illinois, iowa, nebraska, colorado, zahra, and oklahoma --missouri, and oklahoma. it is more and more difficult for small and midsize farming operations to stay in the business. that is why the biden administration is focused on creating new revenue streams and a new ways for farmers in addition to selling commodities can make a living. we're excited about the opportunity that presents for farmers to be entrepreneurial. it's going to take some time for those opportunities to filter down into the countryside. we are excited about where it is headed. sonali: how do you see the face of farming changing in this country? farmers are expected to plant almost 5 million less acres of corn in the united states, while soybean is expected to increase. do you see corn losing its

status as the king of crops in america? how did things change moving forward? sec. vilsack: not necessarily, but you will see new uses for corn and soybeans, sustainable aviation fuel one of those opportunities. you will see agricultural waste be its own commodity instead of on land where it causes issues with water quality. we will be converting that to a series of bio--based products, which crates a whole new opportunity and manufacturing. we will see farmers be energy producers we've seen a significant move to renewable energy on the farm not only to reduce the cost of electricity for the farming operation, but to produce electricity for their friends and neighbors. you will see a significant transition. finally, you will see a move away from just relying on commodity markets to more local and regional food markets where the farmer doesn't get $.20 of every food dollar, but 50 cent to 75 cents of every food dollar. sonali: it begs the question of

what we see out of congress. will we see a farm bill out of congress this year, and will he come before or after the election? sec. vilsack: continue to be optimistic that we would get to yes in terms of a farm bill. there are issues with how you pay for it. we are not going to pay for it through reductions in commitment to nutrition or commitment to conservation. having said that, it is not just of farm bill that is important. the budget is imported and we are happy we have a budget and hopefully we don't face a serious situation with the shutdowns in the future. we have to have flexibility to use tools like the commodity credit corporation, which are getting us through a number of disasters we face. we also have to have the conservation money under the inflation reduction act. if you take all four of those tools working in concert, we can create a better opportunity for farms across america. sonali: there is the farm bill, but also a host of issues farmers have been facing. agriculture a key battleground when you think about the

election coming up in the number of months here. they have soaring costs, bureaucracy, european union regulations, the green deal. there is a whole host of things. how do you think the farming community is going to influence this election cycle? sec. vilsack: i can't really answer a question about politics on this interview, but what i will say is that american agriculture is offering an option or a different approach to climate-smart agriculture. europe has seen its way to create a regulatory system which farmers are visiting in europe here in the united states it is not a regulatory system, it is a market-based voluntary system for climate-smart agriculture activities now involving 136 projects across america, 102 commodities involved, 203 practices being i incented. it is a volunteer, market-driven system can watch more popular and much more doable. there is a contrast between how

we are approaching the challenges of the future and how our friends in europe are. sonali: given that agriculture is a key battleground, regardless of whether you can talk about the politics or not, how much pressure do you feel to appease this community or at least meet them on their needs the rest of this year? what exact these being done?-- what exactly is being done? sec. vilsack: the pressure i feel is in the loss of farms, knowing that families had to sit around the coffee table and acknowledge they couldn't make it work. i know about farmers come they want to farm and pass it onto the next generation. when that doesn't happen, it affects the mental health of those individuals as well. that's what keeps me up at night and that is why i'm excited about the opportunities this administration is providing for farmers to be entrepreneurial and create more revenue streams and so they have the opportunity to sit at the coffee table and say we can make a go of it and son or daughter or grandchild can come back and farm and do what we love to do. sonali: we started the conversation talking about inflation price pressures that farmers and consumers are

facing. you talked about the margins a little bit. you talked about the idea that prices are getting a little bit better. how much concern do you have about re-acceleration of inflation in any regard, and are you doing anything to protect against it? sec. vilsack: we are helping to lower the cost on the farm by encouraging farmers to embrace renewable energy through the renewable energy for america program. over 6000 grants have been issued by this administration to help farmers reduce the cost of power. we are working on the fertilizer issue. we have funded 42 projects that have reduced the need for foreign fertilizer, reduce the opportunities for the use of fertilizer, make more efficient use of it. we are helping farmers to lower costs. at the same time, as i said, we are creating new revenue streams for those farmers, as is the case with average americans, we are seeing wages up, but we want to control inflation and make sure that workers, farmers have sufficient income to be able to

support their families. this is the present's theory of a bottom-up and middle-out economy, and we are seeing the benefits of that. sonali: u.s. secretary of agriculture tom vilsack, thank you for joining us. certainly a critical time in congress when it comes to farming. coming up, cutting full year ebidta. stick with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

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sonali: this is "bloomberg markets," and i'm sonali basak. time for stock of the hour. a cannabis operator cut its

full-year guidance. jon erlichman has more on this from toronto. talk to us about tilray. what is going on in terms of its ability to make money? jon: the context with cannabis stocks across the industries they have come into this -- there has been a lot of excitement about possible changes that the federal level in the united states. a lot of the excitement got started when the vice president kamala harris had a gathering at the white house talked about reforms. that is the context of what we have seen in the industry the last few weeks. surging pot stocks. when you have a company like tilray, the dominant company in canada -- we're just talking about the upcoming quarter -- but they pulled expectations off the table and they talked about competitive perspective in canada that were challenging in

a market that they have come to become the dominant player in. those were the reasons it felt like for investors to hit the sell button in a big way for longer term this is a company that has been trying to ready for the opportunity to move into the u.s. market, at the same time it is a huge player in the consolidation story in canada, and expanding in europe. they are trying to broaden the reach worldwide at a time when a lot of people are curious about what happens with legalization of marijuana. sonali: how does tilray convincingly diversify? how is their shift into the beer business going? how is it to navigate this volatility? jon: that's a great point as well. when you have a challenging quarter or outlook, you can point to the long-term evidence that you are focused on markets like canada and europe as you wait for more clarity on a market like the united states. you can also talk about

businesses because somewhere they are looking to diversify -- the beer business for tilray is at a point where they like to say they are the fifth largest craft brewery in the u.s. they got there in his pua through acquisitions acquiring from anheuser-busch and molson coors. the leader of the company has a deep history in consumer brands. rand baby food and snacks and all sorts of stuff, started his career had his dad's grocery store. someone who believes in consumer products and diversification of a business. some analysts are still curious about what are the synergies between beer and pot. they are a little early in their journey on that front, but in the time that they are waiting for more clarity in the united states, that is something they can point to and they expect to keep growing the business as well. sonali: to the extent that pot

has annexed big driver, what would that be? what would help tilray and the rest of the sector find a little bit of a lift? jon: seems like everybody's obsessed on what ultimately happens in washington. i mention the fact that you have seen stocks with a lot of momentum recently. we are waiting for more potential clarity from the dea on ultimately how cannabis is scheduled at a federal level. what are the rules of the road for cannabis at a federal level? we will continue to watch state stories. is there going to be new positioning when it comes to something like medical uses of cannabis? the department of health and human services already recommended to the dea that they think there should be some big changes coming. we spoke to an analyst who said he would not be surprised if we got an update from the dea in the next month or so. that would potentially open the door for pen to paper before we get into the election cycle in november. that would be one of the reasons

you have seen that growing excitement for the sector. a lot of the stocks are a long way from where they once were. the other complication is when you talk about a company based in canada that has high hopes to enter the u.s. market, we don't necessarily know -- once we get some clarity from the dea can what does that mean for foreign companies, what does that mean for canadian companies? we have been through this regulatory story up and down and even for these canadian stocks they are struggling to get anywhere close to where they were at the levels in 2021, certainly the early days of legalization in canada about five years ago. sonali: jon erlichman, thank you so much for keeping an eye all over the sector. we will talk about going now, because in the last few hours it released first-quarter data, and deliveries were at the lowest since mid-2021. it is highlighting how far boeing has to go on the road to recovery from the various recent incidents with its planes.

george ferguson joints me now . put the deliveries in context. how do we think about the first quarter relative to what has been going on with boeing? >> i think the first quarter isn't going to matter that much. they are a bit of an aberration. boeing is in the middle of these investigations from the faa and are putting together their plan for how they are going to stabilize production and improve quality going forward. we kind of knew it was going to be a light quarter. it was lighter than we expected. i think i was kind of hoping they could deliver more of the airplanes -- they have a number of airplanes in inventory already built. probably small modifications to get them to customers for the those drag financials, too. i think what really matters here is containment of cash burn during the quarter. we are going to look for them to come out of this quarter and give us a sense for what the plan is to improve production

quality. at bloomberg intelligence we have them modeled for 38 a month rate on the 737 in 4q. we look for them to recover what they should have been out before the loss of the alaska airplane by the end of the year. cash burn is going to matter the most. this was a little bit expected. sonali: earnings out on april 24. the stock is top more than 30% -- the stock has dropped more than 30% this year. what turns the story around? is it just about the ceo, a new one? george: i think a lot of it is. what turns the story around is improving the manufacturing process and increasing the builder rate especially for the 737. the problem we have is we are waiting for the new ceo. dave calhoun is going to leave. we are in this vacuum because we don't know what the new ceo,

what his plan is going to be. dave calhoun can't speak for him. the challenge for people in the stock is trying to figure out who the next person is and what their plan is going to be. until you get the person in place, it is really hard to understand the story forward for boeing right now. sonali: we look forward to having you back on with us to make sense of all of this. george ferguson, thank you so very much. stick with us. we are going to talk about the reat expectations, and they are all over the place. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> should probably take the committee and the chair at face value. i think the best guess right now is three cuts this year.

of course the data can go one way or another, but that is the base case. sonali: that was jim bullard on bloomberg, former st. louis president. we are going to talk a little bit more about those comments coming out of the federal reserve and people watching the fed closely. there is places where people are going against the grain, adding that the fed will cut 50 basis points as soon as june. the market consensus is less than three rate cuts this year, but state street believes that the economy is far more fragile than one might think, which would lead to more rate cuts than you would expect. before we let you go, quick check on the markets. you have noticed that yields have taken a beating lower here. stick with us through the close. that does it for "bloomberg markets." this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> from the world of politics to the world of business, this is balance of power. live from washington, d.c.. >> congress returns to washington. that may be the problem.