is almost 1 p.m. in sydney and 11 in sydney. callout -- i'm paul allen. fed officials and jamie diamond are warning that lending costs will stay high. chinese activity data failed to inspire confidence. hopes of policy support and we hear from hcl technology ceo as they whether a slowdown. looks like a risk off day to finish the week. avril is keeping her eyes on things. china data is weighing on sentiments. avril: it is raising concerns about how unbalanced recovery is given the myths from retail

sales. how long can that side of the equation keep things going? sentiment is taking a hit. in the red, not just the impact on stocks, dollar china is seeing weakness and offshore again popped above 723. we have weakness in the japanese currency after the beale j left bond purchases unchanged. assets unwind as they rethink rate cuts. flip the board. property sector, stock gauge of developers surged since april

love, but this is driven by policy support. we have morgan stanley talking about how inventory access plan might disappoint and if you look at the physical market has not bottomed. keeping our eyes on china bonds ahead of the special sale kicking off today. bonds are lower even though demand is expected to pair declines after the china data dump. paul: let's get more on the economic data. lopsided recovery, retail sales slowing. we are joined by maine menlo. break down those numbers. min min: we are seeing

industrial production beating investments by 1%. consumption lagging, missing estimates. fixed investment is missing estimates. i want to focus on output. this print is a source of tensions with the west with the u.s. accusing china of dumping its problem on the rest of the world and president biden announced tariffs over the next few years that will be ongoing headwinds and factory prices have remained in deflation so how long can export driven growth sustain? consumers will have to do heavy lifting to keep the economy on track. paul: let's talk more about

consumption. consumers are missing in action, what is it going to take to stimulate demand? main man -- min min: the print in april is the lowest since 2022 and the government ruled out programs, to upgrade equipment with one-time subsidies. if you look at the data for car sales, those demands are tepid despite government stimulus and property, housing prices are falling again, progrowth signals

coming out, city after city rolling out cuts and the state council meeting with the government mulling over plans to buy millions of home. that could see the property sector turn a corner but it will take six or 12 months to see this coming and it looks like we will have to rely on government investment to help steer growth on track. paul: yeah. hard to overstate the enormity. bloomberg's china correspondent there. for more on china data, let's bring in amy, head of strategies with more than 100 billion dollars in funds for joining us, thank you for your time. i want to start off with profit numbers, 6.7%, more than

expected. how long cannot be sustained? helen as long as the government wants. assumption numbers are we and it is a surprise, but most major upon his housing cycles tend to lead retail sales. you need to buy a car because you have moved to suburban areas. none of that is happening in china because the government switched to housing and consumption will take a backseat. there is not a lot the government can do but they can control bumping into manufacturing. paul: it is sustainable for as long as they want, a growth target as well. amy: when i look at indicators

we follow for china, there is dislocation. i see stabilization and i mean the old economy. the new economy is kind of stalling around deleveraging. the old economy is turning a corner, but the market does not believe. time and time again hopes will be dashed. the government will buy unsold homes but that would undo all the hard work. paul: there is something interesting, we've got long-term bond sales. we've also got analysis from bloomberg saying soaking up those homes will cost one trillion yuan. coincidence?

amy: i think that is coincidence. the fact that their issuing government debt is recognizing that there is so much pseudo-state debt in china that needs to be absorbed. i don't think you can say one for one if they throw this debt they will make their problems go away. the last thing the government wants is to cause a revival based off one sector. everything they have done is to contain that and to find a more even set of growth engines. paul: let's set that aside and talk about a conundrum, offshore you want steadily weakening, what is your outlook and how much weakness will policymakers tolerate? amy: this is something they can tolerate as long as it does not result in volatility.

china is not alone. major central banks, bank of japan even, if things are moving according to fundamentals, i would argue it is reflecting week fundamentals. central banks are willing to tolerate, they just do not like volatility so you will see smoothing at the edges and i expect that to continue, but the main determinant is interest-rate differentials. i think dollar china, the u.s. will cut interest rates even though china is weak because they know interest rates will not stimulate the economy. if you have that differential view, maybe that pair is not as vulnerable. paul: picking up on your thoughts on the fed, amy will

stay with us to talk about the path ahead, and still ahead, bane shares their outlook on private equity and we discussed why dealmaking might remain tepid. first, janie diamond sounds the alarm on inflation. we would hear why he thinks chances of a hard landing could be higher. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> incoming information indicates it will take longer to gain confidence. as we gain clarity about inflation. paul: that was loretta messner doubling down on higher for longer. jamie dimon says he is more worried about inflation then markets speaking at the global markets conference in paris, significant price pressures are influencing the economy supporting rates staying high. jamie: we've had good health in the markets, they are predicting a soft landing and prices are high, credit is low, markets are wide open.

i can point to history where that was true and the next year was not true so we will see. i don't pay attention. >> what is the future? >> very big fiscal deficits and underlying inflation may not go away. i look at the future as inflationary. the green economy, infrastructure, restructuring trade, fiscal deficits. there are many forces that may keep higher. the surprise would be rates are higher and that will slow growth. geopolitics is a different issue that can determine what our economy does and we are just not going to know. francine: you think it is 50-50 whether the fed cuts or hikes?

jamie: the fed will follow the data i don't know what that will say. they are doing the right thing, being patients. maybe they will not know for a couple of months. >> if you do not pay attention you are not worried. >> stocks are high, rates are higher than people think. my view is whatever the world christ in, the chance of something going wrong is high. in the u.s., but also globally. francine: what does that mean for markets? jamie: credit spreads will cap out. francine: why is the market not pricing that in? jamie: happy talk, low rates, reduced rates. geopolitics disseminate and

cause problems so the future is not predictable. i am a student of history, i dad was a stockbroker. i go back to the collapse of 74. the healthy market of 80, collapse of 82. almost all crashes were not predicted so i look at these factors. prepare regardless. francine: geopolitics is not priced in. is it distressed, something going under for multiple factors? jamie: geopolitics could create stress. oil and gas prices, trade alliances, surprise is higher rates.

maybe inflation bounces up. next year may be in the cards. if you had higher rates and stagflation you will see stress, leveraging companies and credited, things like that. paul: jamie dimon speaking to bloomberg's francine. head of income strategies amy kirkpatrick is with us. the fed has but it needs to start easing but i want to pick up on what jamie was saying. history about what he has observed and he has some gray hair. this is something i raised this week, he is old enough to remember the days of double digit inflation. this is not high, zero low rates are not normal. is it heavy talk?

amy: markets like -- equity markets like to be optimistic but i do not have as much -- i have the data of the last century and whenever you look at the range of inflation and you look at the recent episode, we are tracking ahead of schedule in terms of the way inflation came down so i agree with jamie that the market is overoptimistic but i do not agree that the surprise is inflation, it may be that inflation under shoots. and then we have to cut more than currently. paul: that could be the debate in markets. we have a chart that indicates

what the market is expecting and were back to the idea or of two rate cuts, do you think we will get to? >> the market is always right but when you look at two cuts priced in, it is to black and white, probably 50% of not and 50% for. i'm of the view that i do not rule out twice as many cuts as currently because all the data the fed needs including disinflation is on the cards but they have every reason to use. they don't like shocking the markets. paul: do they? you ease when the economy needs stimulus. it does this economy need that?

amy: they would see that needs are coming up fast so you've already seen unemployment rising off the lows of the cycle. unemployment is low but what tends to happen with this rate, it creeps up and loses the plot and skyrockets. what the fed should be doing is trying to get ahead of that to ease off being restrictive. paul: we've still got an inverted yield curve. when do you see that inverting? amy: there is a theory that this will happen led by the long and because why is it inverted when we've had no recession and

everyone is convinced no landing or at the worst a soft landing. i think very simply it is inverted because a cash rate above 5% is restrictive so it cannot be sustained. longer bond yields need to be lower. i think the steepening happens by the front end. >> where are you going for opportunities? >> generation is back. a tricky year because disinflation has been bumpy. for the latest print we had three mrs. to the upside and the market got scared. i think the path is underway so having missed the bumpy notice i'm ready to get in. paul: is that just u.s. treasuries or other countries as well?

paul: singles in china tell me i should be short because the economy is not as bad as sentiment whereas when you look at markets in asia correlated to treasuries, even australia, this is the time. paul: we heard jamie dimon talking about the markets not appreciating. what is in your book of risks? >> nothing too scary, this is what the end of a cycle looks like with too many rate hikes and the economy unwinds. the good news as there is not a lot of hit in demons in the closet. balance sheets are healthy. broadly speaking for australia and the u.s.. we will come out of the recession. paul: amy, head of income

strategies, thank you. plenty more to come on bloomberg and if you are a subscriber catch up with our interviews by using the tv function tv go. join the conversation and send instant messages to our team during the live show. check that function out at tv go, this is bloomberg. ♪

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♪ paul: china sold treasury bonds totaling 50 $3.3 billion. beijing's investments are garnering attention amid signs that the tension make it worse.

president biden unveiled sweeping hikes. meanwhile the imf criticized the biden administration move to raise tariffs on chinese goods. the u.s. economy would benefit more from open trade. the imf has been stepping up criticism of its biggest shareholder after trade restrictions and a currency impact. two senior lawmakers blasted a washington-based foundation or accepting money. they say the move flies in the face of efforts to keep foreign adversaries from compromising u.s. research. while way is blacklisted but funded a research competition. i mentioned some tariffs from the u.s. on china, take a look

at stocks falling. biden administration is fostering deeper u.s. supply chain. solar panels manufacturer in the u.s. and chinese stocks suffering. shares dropping 2.4%. 3% now after bloomberg reported they are seeking to reduce an 8% stake in the bank. analysts saying overhang has increased. it is producing it. let's take a look at global movers. risk off day. a lot of currencies are falling on u.s. dollar resurgence.

>> welcome back.

chinese markets heading out on their lunch break. live pictures of shanghai, risk off day. we've got the csi 300 off by 1/5 of 1%. let's get to avril in singapore. what is catching your eyes? avril: it's about china dater and how it is sending a sobering message of and balances in the asian economy and sapping optimism from earlier about policy support, solid earnings from big tech names and erasing gains from earlier on. dollar china moving chaya. we are seeing ultra long government bonds, expectation is

solid damond. we are seeing a backdrop of a data dump causing concerns about china. i want to zero in on the hong kong markets of late and how fear of missing out is driving the rally up until today as investors were content to ignore uncertainty, focus on how sentiment turned positive and yesterday we saw hong kong markets go to the highest level since the reopening rallying, a sense of what is driving the markets. take a look at japan back from lunch. equities follow the wealth on a day when investors are rethinking the rate cut. yen weakening against the greenback. something to note kia, the bmj

amount on after cutting back on mondays speculation that we will take the foot off the pedal on debt markets. speculation unwound and we are seeing bonds under pressure. paul: let's get more on markets and bring in mary nicolette are. from the data out of china, strong numbers for industrial production, but where are the consumers? mary: it shows what a patchy recovery we are seeing but the concern is how consumers are faring, not well based on data. there could be some impact from base effects, but the consumer is weak, property sector is a

burden so that puts you on what we will cam the holistic approach on the property sector. there is supposed to be a meeting with details today on where there are supposed to be details on what they will do on the -- on the markets, property sector. that is what we will be looking for is how does that boost confidence. paul: yeah. i want to get back to the questions about property but we have a major bond sale today, $139 billion of long dated securities. solid damond is expected. what sort of yields could? mary: it was interesting that the government put something out that we should expect 2.5 or 3%

on ultra long bonds. it is more about the market expecting further easing which would put downward pressure on yields and that should continue. if this -- if it goes well, that just shows how much anticipation market participants are looking for yields to decline, so it is about monetary policy, more easing coming through, that will be supportive or bonds. paul: you talked about property, never a dull moment. country garden liquidation resuming on june 11. as you mentioned we have a meeting between key officials and banks. can we expect meaningful solutions for at least some

incremental progress into resolving the problems around the property market? mary: the fact that they're talking about a holistic approach and targeting some unsold properties is a step in the right direction. the main issue has been that there has not been a solution targeting the glut or supporting the developers in a more holistic way. we are moving in that direction and policymakers are willing to take on some difficult tasks since you're seeing how weak consumer confidence is, how weak demand is. in addition to the property markets, you will see much needed support from the physical side, but this time targeting the consumers, especially if

they are able to provide something. paul: strategist mary nicolette there. let's look at what is going on in fx around the asia-pacific. a lot of local currencies are losing ground at the moment. a resurgence of the usd, hearing from fed speakers including john williams. all hammering the theme supporting the greenback seeing asian currencies losing ground. the yen o philippines governor says he wants to see loose liquidity with policy tighter than necessary. he spoke after the central bank held a key rate and he signaled a readiness to pit it too easily. >> still hawkish, less than

before. they put pressure on the peso, but the peso opened at 57 this morning. that is weaker than last night so it has not affected the peso. >> ok, 58 seems to be the magic number about whether the bsp would intervene. how far will you go? >> yesterday we did not intervene. we were happy with the movement of the peso, but if there is stress, we might come in. stress means large oversize high volatility and then we might intervene. stephen: is it a wait and see approach right now on possible intervention? we are seeing the fed will not

cut until december at the earliest according to expectations. is this a strong dollar story with the peso? guest: strong dollar broadly over the past several weeks so we do not feel obliged to intervene, but we want to keep the market orderly. >> we heard comments saying maritime incidences off the philippines china have had impact. what are you seeing, the direct correlation? >> any incident affects the peso . so far, not sharply but none at all, incidences have not the peso >> is there a concern of

the pass-through of the week peso to an ocean? if not a concern? guest: pass-through has been very small peso but that is not tuesday that if the peso weekends that it will be significant. so far it has been small, it has been there, but small. >> what do you think you need to see to warrant that cut in august, governor? do you think inflation will be messed to command? >> there are outside risks but the peso inflation rate has been looking good, trending down, and

output growth remains intact. no those are good news for ash, which makes us more confident about easing in the second half. paul: that was philippines governor speaking on the china show. still to come, are exclusive with the ceo of india's hcl tech. why they are bullish on growth despite pressure on i.t. coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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feel more confident with stock ratings from j.p. morgan analysts in the chase app. when you've got a decision to make... the answer is j.p. morgan wealth management. >> just getting to breaking news, watching the auction of ultra long securities underway with 30 year notes and here we go. china's auction has a bid to cover and 30 year special government bonds at 2.75 to see if we can get more detail on this for you, $139 billion for one trillion you want of long dated securities, so the first

government bond auction and had 7% yield is pretty much in line dated overview more headlines as we get them. let's get to india in the country's role is growing. according to bain and company is for 20% of investments. dealmaking is tepid and traditional sectors are likely to attract outsized investments. our next guest co-authored a report on india saying it is a partner and she joins us now from bengaluru. i just want to start if you can tell us the highlights, what stood out? guest: that is a great question.

thank you for having me. 2023 has been a unique year in india. obviously the investments have been 39 billion, lower than previous years, the one standout has been activity, a marquee year. a lot was not ipo block trades. that was one standout. paul: a lot of the time we talk about rotation and growth in india. cyclic errors have been weighing on investing. where do you see those reversing? guest: it's an interesting question.

i think the way to think is india has been prominent with impact investments, india was 20% overall. so while there are broad macro factors, it is expected to moderate. the important thing is allocation of capital as well as sectors that had not seen activity have been growing in prominence in health care. we expect that to continue. advanced manufacturing. i think the way to look at it is

emerging green shoots. paul: let's look at where the activity was strong. and a lot of dealmaking in health care. any other sectors? guest: good question. health care will be a focus. last year there was a lot of hospital chain activity. we expect to see more in med tech. i think advanced manufacturing will see activity. think specialties. tailwinds from china and manufacturing, traction. tech services has been an investment that we anchor. we are on the lower side and maybe not this year, but we think private equity firms will

start taking about more investment into software and consumer platforms. interesting activity to come through over the next couple of years. paul: are you thinking about firms putting money into high multiple companies. guest: it is hard to comment. especially 21, deployment-focus. we have seen activity picking up. we expect investments will made to watch out, we expect caution shows the work this year. paul: so you mentioned software

as a service. do you see other areas the billing money in terms of a.i.? guest: there are two parts to the story. venture firms will think about generative a.i. and on the application layer. the angle is different, it is the impact of generative a.i. on existing companies, whether they ride the tailwind into better services or firms that might need to think about headwind. i think the focus is evaluating figure out where generative a.i.

would have an impact. paul: partner with bain and company, thank you for joining us. let's look at corporate stories, mahendra will plow into an electric vehicle business as it doubles down on clean transport. they are advancing toward production of six suvs. fourth-quarter profit jumped 32%. that beats analyst estimates. a company will pay dividends for the current fiscal year extending a lifeline for its indebted parent. the payouts should help the group repay $3 billion of debt, it is already cut debt over the past years.

a one point $7 trillion wealth fund excludes a donnie from the portfolio citing human rights violations. excuse me. the decision follows recommendations from norway's ethics counsel. the fund has the firm under observation due to involvement in me and mark. shares of india's i.t. outsourcing facing a reality check after strong growth. the gauge of software stocks has fallen into a technical correction. software makers have yet to make advances in generative a.i.. combined with the cloudy outlook could make them look like tech debts of yesterday. india's third-largest firm is unfazed by pressure. their ceo told us about plans to

spur growth and outperform. guest: given the broader economic alignment they've had an exceptional year. we had a very good year in 23, we grew 5.4% in u.s. dollar terms, highest growth rate in the industry. so what matters is how relevant are your propositions. we won about a billion dollars of net business and it is a good mix of driving efficiency for customers and doing transformation work, continuing investments in cloud, cybersecurity, data. those are areas where clients continue to spend in this environment. >> verizon was a win.

what are you looking at in terms of deals and how aggressive is the competition? >> it is a landmark deal, not an outsourcing deal, a business partnership delivering managed output services for clients and we are a service provider. this is driving titian see and high priority areas like data and everybody trying to do the best with generative a.i., data becomes an important component.

north america continues to be a bright spot. financial services grew 30% and europe is soft. we think australian markets will pick up fast because i see momentum in asia. >> guidance has been strong. does that mean you are emboldened? >> we're the only company with a net headcount almost reduced headcount. we have delivered high growth. compared to the industry. paul: that is htl tech ceo speaking with bloomberg's heidi.

let's take a look at indian markets. similar theme, modest risk off tone, we got the benchmark index off by a quarter of 1%, others are looking similar. this is bloomberg. ♪

paul: ok, let's look at how we

are tracking in china. off to a start. modest start, 30 year notes sold at 2.57%, median forecast of 2.55 was expected in the survey we conducted. plenty more to go, this is the first time in 30 years or the fourth time china has returned to this fiscal stimulus. take a look at china tech names. allie baba up, by due up. that is it from bloomberg markets asia. horizons is up next. ♪ ing returns. avalarahhh ahhh