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tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Asia  Bloomberg  May 20, 2024 8:00pm-9:00pm EDT

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>> this is "day break: asia," counting down to asia's major market opens. haidi, we have stocks around all-time highs. there's a big test in days ahead, nvidia's numbers and whether the enthusiasm and demand we have seen for its a.i. chip, if that can extend. haidi: every time this comes around we're sort of wondering how much higher can this go? this is the stock that ignited the rally and how much can it be sustained given the el visited expectation it is? but we still have the drumbeat from the fed, saying more evidence needs to be seen. she was in the camp of cuts but that's looking much less certain across market expectations. annabelle: very busy day for fed speak. let's kick off with what wie seeing in japan. the big focus in the country is what's happening with the 10-year yield.
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just continuing to track a bit higher. we're sitting at levels we haven't seen since 2013 for this bond here. certainly the question is, thage station that -- thage decision that we're getting from traders, when we're going to see the b.o.j. start to cut or hike rates, we're hearing them say the same three moves this year could be possible. we are getting close to the 1% market. continuing to track the 10-year yield at levels we haven't seen since 2013. really does play into the currency dynamics. again today in the stherks yen fractionally weaker against the dollar here, trending back again closer to the 157 mark. stocks wise, look, we're a little high right now but fairly range bound on the session. that points to what we're saying. nvidia numbers are yet to come out. you mentioned the cleveland fed
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president, three rate cuts could no longer be appropriate. what does that mean for the dynamics of japan as well, that we continue to track. and also rafael bostic saying he expects a higher steady rate for rays as well. some of the different officials we're hearing from reinforcing and reiterating that wait and see approach in. korea, let's look at how marks are coming online this morning. of course data to note. trade numbers coming out for the first 20 days of may. exports rising 1.5%. still in positive territory, just. it is quite a significant slowdown from the month prior. chip ebltion ports, big gains there. up 45.5% on the year. imports though, contracted nearly 10% in the latest numbers coming out as well. put that up against what we also had in terms of consumer
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confidence numbers this morning, actually seeing consumers turning pessimistic. the b.o.k. continues to hold rates higher for longer as well, haidi. haidi: i'll take a look at how we're faring here in australia. assets under a bit of pressure when it comes to the currency at risk from early moves we're seeing this week with the dollar with the pushback on easy expectations from the fed. the first couple minutes of cash trading here in sidney not seeing much -- in sydney not seeing much. the benchmark yield hitting decade highs, we're seeing that move when, the third day in a row on monday. potentially a little bit more to coe go when it comes to last week's rally in bonds. it's this to and fro with ow ho
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it's perceived that is still at play here. energy prices will be a major part of the, commodity prices in particular. copper prices still under 11,000 at the moment but pretty close. not getting the geopolitical boost we exped but looking ahead to the june opec plus meeting and whether the supply settings will be kept unchanged. as i mentioned, the drum beat of what we're hearing from the fed continues. we heard from loretta messer amongst others overnight. take a listen. >> i was on the record before saying i was at the median, which was three. the developments i've seep in the economy right now i would not think that's still appropriate. the inflation risks have moved up. >> i do think our stu status is likely to be higher than what people have known over the last decade. maybe back to where we were in the 1990's and 2000's. we'll just have to see.
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haidi: jim is here, a portfolio manager. there's some to and fro in expectations. you think they'll move quickly, inflation will get to a point where it's fawlg. what's the trigger there? you don't see the cut at all this year. >> this year won't take place because inflation is taking a bit longer and the consumer is taking a bit longer to reduce their spend. we do -- however we do think by the end of the year, the calendar year, there'll be a lot of softness that we're already seeing the trajectory of to start appearing. by next year we do think the cut is coming through and, but maybe it will stay a little higher for longer but the cuts will start early next year. >> at the same time we're seeing the miami um being driven by a.i., nvidia the one to focus on. how much are you look, how much is it possible to start looking ahead to the sort of second tier, third-tier effects of a.i.
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and what companies will benefit. is that something you're looking into? >> absolutely. i think this is an incredible trend. i think it would be short sighted for any investor to mis. every company we have spoken to have talked about how they can utilize the a.i. tool into the existing model to improve efficiency and maybe take advantage of opportunities. so you know, it is real. so -- and however now it's like you said. it's going to so many secondary derivatives. not only the chips itself, it's going to software. and the data center. incredible amount of data center capacity required over the next few decades. with that comes the requirement for energy. now we look to the whole supply chain of how to take advantage and yen rate through the whole supply chain. >> are there any names that stand out to you in particular to capitalize on this? >> absolutely. so we here in australia, we see
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through the data centers as the easiest way to play this trend. we don't have the thrieives nviia. the data centers like next pc and gruman group. they used to be industrial property specialists and has global reach, top five in the world. now has branched into the data center and has secured many megawatts of power and demand over the next deck kaismed we think that this trajectory going to drive the growth noars company for many years to come. >> japan has been sort of one of the key beneficiaries of that a.i. trade. one of the reasons we have seen a run-up in stocks. do you see that performance expending or do you think it's a bit overstretched and investors are just putting their money back into other marks like china now, for instance? >> i think the japan market has benefited somewhat in the last couple of years with weakness in the chinese market. as well as uncertainties of
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other surrounding marks that's impacted by the chinese slow economy. however we are seeing now with improvement, destabilization in the chinese economy and we are seeing a bit nor flow back into those markets. certainly, you know, japan, those segments, high growth segment is doing very well. i think overall in the next short month should expect it to be underperforming the emerging market like china. >> we're also seeing this perhaps be expressed but the india stocks as well, right? take a look at the jut flows we have seen across the india market which has been such a darling. valuations are so expensive and have accelerated. but we have seen this underperformance by mbsi india by nearly 5% so far this month. do you think this is a case where we're seeing portfolios be rebalanced toward china even though the property measures
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really by and large considered not enough? >> absolutely. i think china is coming back into its growth but slowly. i think what we see in terms of the outflow out of india, out of japan, those defensive market into china is still at the frin only, still in a small way. i think in the next month when we see growth stablizing in china, things getting better, i think that sort of growth in terms of flow is going to be quite significant. >> i've got a question about the risk you see for markets ahead. one we've been talking to a lot of investors about is the u.s. election of course. do you see that as a key risk? i'm seeing you note it may not result in all the sorts of volatility that some are perhaps expecting as well. >> absolutely. that's a really good question you talk to any investor, the moment you ask what's the major risk, they talk about the u.s. election. just because our experience from the previous election with trump
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because he's sort of erratic policy directions. now this time around, it certainly seems that a lot of tariff that he talked to previously hasn't really been removed and we got biden already now imposing some new tariffs. it's -- i do think this election may not be as volatile and as risky as expected by many commentators. perhaps it could even just be business as usual. >> interesting business as usual, it fits into the idea that punitive trade measures are the norm in both camps regardless of who takes the election. how much of the trade pressure not just from the u.s. but e.u., probe into chinese e.v.'s, how much is that going to impact china given that e.v.'s batteries are at the heart of what president xi wants to prioritize boost the economy? >> i think this is the world that we talked to perhaps even
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five, 10 years ago. the world will become more disintegrated. chinese companies and china will form its on p.a.c. in terms of trading. that will continue to take place. but look, i think the u.s. elections, one thing it might create a bit of disruption is what trump's policy toward e.u. right now it seems to be, you know, the e.u. against the chinese companies and how the policy might be formed. should there be any punitive impact on the e.u. companies in terms of their expert into -- export into the u.s. market that may create more disruption to what companies are doing. i think ultimately it's, for businesses to thrive is really about saving policies. if you have sudden changes in policy it becomes very difficult. most businesses now have talked about or done of our moving supply campaign to a different area where they have less of those geopolitical threats. and i think if the policy
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doesn't change in a sharp way that businesses will be able to thrive in this environment. >> thanks for your time this morning. about 10 minute into the session so far for sydney, seoul, and tokyo. actually watching the bonds space in particular this morning and the japanese 10-year yield in particular because you're continuing to see them just taking a lit -- ticking a little bit higher, getting closer to the 1% mark. these are levels we haven't seen for the japanese 10-year yield going back to 2013 which to put it in perspective is when the b.o.j. governor was starting his radical monetary easing. but certainly what we're hearing for investors and when you look at swaps price, the odds of a rate hike by the july meeting has increased. some say perhaps three moves for 2024 could still be possible here but certainly that is really the big question, especially when you've got japan
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really grappling with that week yen. you can see on the screen close to that 157 mark. we'll have more to come on "daybreak asia," this is bloomberg.
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>> some breaking news crossing the terminal relating to leadership changes at samsung, there's a new head of the chip division, a pivotal part of samsung's enterprise. the current head will be becoming the head of the future business planning team instead. samsung, again, it's a little bit weaker but fairly range bound so far, down around half so far but the chip section has been mired in a long-standing thing we've seen, they said the business should recover to 2022 level this is year. samsung pushing ahead with a partnership with nvidia around high band width memory chips,
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h.b.m., a critical component of the graphics processors that train a.i. systems. haidi: we're watching energy markets as well as geopolitical developments. it's been a busy start to the week, with power transition in the middle east with the death of iran's president. the health of the king of saudi arabia's health is a concern, his son has canceled a trip to japan to staythere the only sis seems to be that continuity will be ensured for both of these governments or these administrations. where is the uncertainty for you, particularly when it comes to iran and the fact that raisi was one of the top contenders to replace the supreme leader? >> that's really the biggest
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question i think now for iran is who is next in line to replace the supreme leader, who is in his mid 80's at this point, and many people had believed the late president had been set up or had been in position to take that spot. immediately for iran, they have to -- we're expecting elections to take place within the next 49, 50 days. so that will determine who the permanent replacement is as president of iran. but that, you know, how that unfolds and who emerges from that process, whether it's the current interim president, makber, or someone else, there'll be some sort of power struggle, we expect, between possibly the interim vice president, the interim president, the supreme leader's son, an always the chance that some kind of third candidate emerges in this process. so the -- it's -- i think even less of a focus on who tbheks president in 50 days than on who
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gets set up from this process to become the next supreme leader. annabelle: it's not just access arising in iran, there's also saudi arabia as haidi mentioned. perhaps continuitythere do you see these changes sort of derailing the detent that was broke bin -- brokered by china last year and also as well iranian support for regional proxies? >> yeah, i think the big question is perhaps on the proxies, not whether iran will cort to -- will continue to support them, i think the islamic revolutionary guard corps, will continue supporting proxies like hezbollah and the houthis. that will continue, i think both sides in this, saudi and iran, have seen the benefits of trying to sustain that detent. saudi arabia, you have the crown prince who has been long running the day-to-day business of the kingdom and leading many of its biggest initiatives, whether
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it's -- you talk about the 2030 plan, the outreach with israel, the work with opec plus group. i mean m.b.s. has been basically at the forefront of all of that. so i think there would be very little spoil change coming, it may slow down some critical decisions such as this agreement to potentially reach a deal with the u.s. over security and energy, but i think both sides, when you look at the big picture, have seen the benefits, these are two of the biggest, historically biggest rivals in the middle east. they are trying to get over that to some level. the more uncertainty, i think, comes with the internal politics of iran at this point rather than the foreign policy of either nation. >> it's an extraordinary, i think our last guest said it's never an uncomplicated time in the middle east, right? but this comes, just a few weeks after we've seen kind of this shadow war if you will, test red lines between a number of these
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parties. i do wonder how much more complicated does this get with the leadership change in iran potentially and how that impacts this conflict we're still seeing in gaza. we've also just gotten the i.c.c. leveling arrest warchts against both netanyahu and hamas' leader for crimes against humanity. >> you have the i.c.c. decision, it's not clear how that will be enforced. it was not surprisingly, rejected by all sides when it came out that they are seeking arrest warrants for both top leadership of hamas and the top leadership of israel. i think the big x factor in all of this is that conflict in the middle east between israel and hamas at this point. we've seenly seen since that took off in october that developments on the ground can very quickly shift the politics in the region. vukd a major incident take place there. that does change the calculus for a country like iran or a
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country like saudi arabia or even the u.s. that's where i think a lot of the uncertainty lies. there's still efforts going on at having some sort of temporary cease fire. but we have been talk about that for three months and haven't seen it come to fruition. and of course you have the internal politics of israel as well which seem to be heading in a slightly les predictable direction at this point. haidi: some of the other stories we're follow, china has criticized the speech, saying the speech is seeking independence. he used his first speech as president to end its campaign of pressure on taiwan. south africa barred the former leader jacob zuma from running for parliament. that's related to his conviction of the plunder of $27 billion
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during his presidency. his upstart political party is seen as a wild card as south africa gears for elections next week. plenty more to come here on "daybreak asia," this is bloomberg.
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noim microsoft has introduced new software and computers infused with a.i. features. as it steps up efforts to compete with google and apple. their c.e.o. spoke with bloomberg about the a.i. race. >> it's really a ground up, you know, reimagination from silicon, so we have a new s.o.c. that as the n.p.u. think about it as, we have always had c.p.u.'s and
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g.p.u.'s, now we have neural processing unit for these a.i. models. we have 40-plus model that are local on windows machines that are being used by a variety of experiences we have bill into whip does starting with a frafg memory feature called recall which is phenomenal. co-pilot is built into windows. it's not just an app it's a shell that's going to be there to assist you, as you see a demo of playing minecraft, i share my screen with it and co-pilot helps me be competitive with my drawer. ard third parties are bringing all they do to co-pilot plus p.c.'s. it's an exciting day for us to have a complete rethink on the full stack of windows for the i.h. >> i bet you're pretty good at
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minecraft. this new recall feature means your computer has a photograph memory of everything you do it. the speed is so fast. uns pre dend. how will this make things different for consumers and change our daily routines? >> if you think about the p.c. it's always been about creating things, right? it's about being able to synthesize lots of information, create new information, pass better judgment, gain insights and act. that's what you sort of do on a p.c. a.i. is an assistant. it helps you as an end user do anything. one of the most beautiful demos today was this thing called co-create. i'm in paint, i'm painting a nice spring seattle day, i want mountains with flowers. i can have the a.i. assist with me. i can be inspierd by a.i. but i'm the one painting.
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one of the things my co-worker was telling me, her 5-year-old was saying give me designer. it feels like when we all fell in love with the p.c.'s, that's what got us going, the ability to use computers to create and i think this a.i. is just going to take it to the next level. haidi: that was microsoft's c.e.o. speaking with emily chang in that conversation. we are watching the yen, we are getting some lines through there from the -- from suzuki really at a time when we continue to see commentary on the yen, both pluses and minuses when and they're all coming? those who are still with us, yes. grandpa! what's this? your wings. light 'em up! gentlemen, it's a beautiful...
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haidi: we have some data
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crossing the bloomberg with the consumer confidence numbers. a big focus with the consumer the elevated rates playing out here. we have seen a further decline with consumer confidence, 82.2. consumer sentiment seeing a rise of 4.1%. finances seeing a deterioration of 3.6% and expectations of the year ahead seeing a fold there. some expectations of economic improvement for the year ahead. five years ahead seeing some, a bit of uptick. interesting with purchasing power and sort of retail sentiment if you will the likelihood of purchasing a major household item falling almost 3% but the property sector has a gain with purchases of a
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dwelling. and australia's economy and broader market sentiment continues to hold up as we swing back it high oil prices close to $128 on the back of some of the optimism around china and copper prices part of that and off a little bit with the record above 11,000 but the bets on the short-term supply short fall continues prices up more than 25% with copper and up about 1% at the moment in the session. we did see that jump of morning 4% in futures trading taking the price beyond 11,000 a ton for the first. the trajectory is still toward a positive. still the future are lagging.
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we have seen that forge ahead with strength in the s dollar weighing a little on precious metal. oil is another one to watch and you would expect a little more geopolitical for crude prices but that's not really playing out, looking pretty flat. new york crude under $80 a barrel. the focus remains on the opec meeting in june. >> looking how we are going in equities so far 30 minutes in stocks sort of fairly range bound so trading volume around the 20 day moving average but it is the count down to the nvidia numbers and add the course of beneficials that continue that they should stay higher for longer. a fog in other market japan a half to the up side but take
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stock of where we are because most of the companies have released numbers. when you look at who didn't do as well around 60% of companies reporting outside and, growth and within name out overnight was tokyo marina offers property, casualty life insurance and asset management services and it is high the four year net income. in the gran led by financial stocks and we saw big lags from some of the japanese banks a 45% decline in threat profit. ones that really with benefit from a rising rate environment. let's switch to china's, outlook because we have seen pretty good from a lot of d chance names but
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trip.com within to watch when trading starts in honk kong. looking at the u.s. and you see the bump so we saw tripcom reporting, that beat the average analyst estimates. let's get more from that. ange, the, beat but what stood out to you in particular? >> i think off lane of revenue was it lin with expectation and burn guidance. i feel like the major up play feels i see the package it revenue was more than double but in compared with the copper trouble is like lagging a bit because it was only,by 15% on the yearly basis so only 50%. >> how does that compare with
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other travel stock? >> i think the major can be the key performance was much stronger. it was weak and might be decline being on a year over year basis the second quarter because it is coming from high base and we are seeing it having a strong growth. it has much more exposure to business so that is why it is better. so the divergence of work is increasing because people who have money can still travel and want to enjoy shopping in europe because it is cheaper but they feel like they spend less than before in traveling.
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>> that is interesting because it plays into the dynamic we are seeing of the golden week and going back to lunar new year more are traveling but spending less than pre-pandemic. how do you see that affecting tripcom in months ahead? >> usually it looks like the domestic market is weak because some are traveling but to be honest i feel electric how many people can travel out from china. so outbound travel is about people who have money. so they are spending less. but it is different because the company has been beginning market share. so during pandemic those people living in like small town used to go to off-lin travel agencies it book trims but now they might be doing everything online because in pandemic they know how to use everything. suddenly pandemic made everyone more tech savvy.
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that is why they are doing burn the general market. haidi: more to come on daybreak asia. this is bloomberg.
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>> we have more than 50% investors standing versus last year so it is great to see the increased excitement about japan. there's a real debate going on here. not everyone is convinced that japan can continue to rally from here but we are having a lot of very detailed and constructive conversations about the improvement in corporate governance in particular. i think that is absolutely key focus for many investors and companies as they make the case
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we are more interested in uninvestigators, more interested in our share price than ever before and we are seeing a very strong debate kicking off this morning. haidi: corporate governance tell us more because it is one reason we have seen a run up in japanese equities. what more could be done if you can take one or two different objectives? >> the role of independent directors is a key theme. how independent are japanese companies? are they willing to let the board of directors what the strategy is and this is within key area. another within which is starting to be a d'antoni is executive compensation. japanese management and staff are underpaid and investors are very happy to reward them with
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higher pay packages. but what is the structure of that compensation and how is that going to happen? those are prickly issues with a lot to be discussed but the debate is raging on those two fronts. >> there is always the sense with momentum flows investors can be quite fickle. we have seen some flow back to china and indiana, not just japan so how you sustain the next leg of growth of this market. you touched on some points but what do we need to see from the bank of japan? >> they are looking for wage increases from some consumer companies who are willing to use pricing power. but for the overall market i think what is key is the
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companies continue to deliver higher r.o.e.'s and profits. for some of them a stronger yen will be a problem so they need to look at the underlying profitability and key business units. on that front we also see a nice combination of investors pressuring companies, private the allocating more money which is helping speed up some changes that need it happen. once investors get a sense this is a different par dime which i think started last year and tense this year they will put more monday in the market. we're seeing a pickup of investors from all regions but the debate is still raging. they have not decided that japan is really the place to go overweight 100% so that is the opportunity. >> when it comes to the benefits versus the detriments of the move with the i don't know
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we had commentary from the finance minister. you talked about how japan has benefited or not. do you see a strong correlation of demand of japanese equities and levels in the yen and how that seeps through to domestic purchasing power, right? >> many global investors want to see the yen strengthen. if you think in dollars, if you bay the japan market you want the yen to get stronger. some sectors like real estate they think that might happen but for exporters you want to have a weaker i don't know and we have seen technology do well on the back of ai and kurpbls si. so, it is really a battle over the defend sectors. i don't think it is as simple as saying the yen leads to win decision on japan equities.
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one sector we feel is left behind is consumer and internet where people look at domestic demand and not convinced it will be strong and kept away from a number of the stocks unless they have exposure to tourism. so we think there are some nice opportunities with the consumer sector where this will have pricing power and will display that and that's where we can see a lot of,side of similar prices in that sector in particular. >> great to have you with us. an annual conference of australian oil and gas exploreers is under way in paris as it grapples to net zero emissions. it is a big contradictory for i'm and gas to say it is helping shaller in carbon neutrality. >> it does. that way but something will have to fill the gap between that
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transition from a lot of australia's energy is coal forward toward the new energy economies. it dovetails with what the government was saying during the budget when it unveiled the future gas strategy but it will take a while. there's a plan to transition australia it becoming a correctly minerals had been that will require a lot of energy. about 42% of australia's manufacturing centering supplied by natural gas. just on the eve of this conference the procedures association published a report that just western australia will need 8 to 10 trillion cubic feet of gas the next few years and at the moment it is only less than half of that. >> there is a really big gap. what is the current state of oil and gas exploration in western
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australia? >> we hard from the australian energy producer c.e.o. last hour. that organization is describing the current offshore approvals as broken so a lot of work needs to be done to the bring the new projects on. a week ago santos laid off 200 staff as all projects were being wound down and there are to approvals in place for the new ones were the western australian government group a lot of the bottle income is at the federal level. around, we also heard from baker hughes. it is about to relaunch the offshore drilling service bass it sees a huge pipeline of oil appear gas activity coming. the c.e.o. of wood side is about to give a speech to the machine nary and basically the -- machine knarry and the take is
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supply, supply, supply. the remedy is bring on more supply quickly. >> that is a lot of big names there. we will have more ahead on "daybreak: asia."
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>> it is not about just delivering a box but an entire infrastructure. that entire infrastructure is insanely complex. the last 30 years both companies have changed a lot. all the new p.c.'s will be ai p.c.'s. anything you are doing that has an edit prompt is going to be sped up because every software developer is figuring out how to use all of this new power the g.p.u.'s and n.p.u.'s. >> nvidia on the ai frenzy as we await those numbers. asus says it can compete on new tech. we had a conversation in taipei
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about the company strategy and ambitions. >> within three years we want to achieve number one in the consumer market but you come into the commercial part we would like to be ranking on testimony three. >> you have this snap dragon x elite processor. why the switch to qualcomm. are they able to offer the speeds like microsoft co-pilot and a.i. capabilities and at the speed and battery legislative necessary as opposed to with were previously getting with intel? >> because all of the new ai the application is totally new. so it is about art not so important. >> do you think this will
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rekindle the debate and give life to the old debate of p.c. versus mac? >> this time i do believe it is a good opportunity for those p.c. brands including asia's to complete with apple because of the introduction of the qualcomm c.p. and -- c.p.u. and n.p.u. >> there's been a lot of hypoover ai but at -- hype over ai but when is it too much. >> this is an opportunity for the industry. so right now i do believe the p. p.c. industry stakeholders we are developing necessary technology to overcome the challenge brought by the ai technology. we will overcome and beat it.
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>> co-pilot ai will be on the consumer laptops. i believe they require access to user information for co-pilot. how are you navigating that tricky requirement? >> according to the experience of the collaboration between them we will careful take it. >> how many of these features will be on p.c.'s that go into places where data privacy is much morin -- more enforced. >> the mechanics is going to be provided by microsoft so at this time microsoft co-pilot function
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will be only partially. >> what kind of demand are you expecting for this new ai laptop? jerks my estimation denial -- sin digit. >> that is anywhere from one it nine. >> maybe high single digits. >> much is made about cross straight ties an economy. -- and economy. how do you see the significance of the algorithm and need for a status quo across the taiwan strait not to get too political but creating a steady business environment? >> we understand that technology is large in taiwan contributing it the nation's g.d.p. and use
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it to have contact or meeting with the industry leaders. and also had meeting. so he understands the need an pit falls of taiwan industry. so, very interesting. you have the leadership of our new government you will see a lot of parliament from i.c.p. industry. so, i'm very company that we will jr. the new government to develop those new policies to have the strength of taiwan tech
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industry. >> big technique coming across markets and that anticipation around nvidia's earnings due wednesday. we will have the reaction in asia thursday. what we are seeing a lot of movement is in the crypto space and attacking closely aware getting the rumblings that the u.s. s.e.c could be looking it approve applications that previously wasn't thought possible. more ahead.
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thanks to avalara, we can calculate sales tax automatically. avalarahhhhhh what if tax rates change? ahhhhhh filing sales tax returns? ahhhhhh business license guidance? ahhhhhh -cross-border sales? -ahhhhhh -item classification? -ahhhhhh does it connect with acc...? ahhhhhh ahhhhhh ahhhhhh
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>> we are half hour away from the opening bell, you are watching "bloomberg: the china show". stocks in china in focus amid the

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