we should note, scott, at the 2004 sea island summit, they cordened off an entire island and thrioucountries staye in beach front condos. there is pres tent cedent to mae types of infrastructure for these events as to whether there would be a judiciary investigation, he said he hasn't haugt thought of that and said with the impeachment inquiry, he doubted he'd have time >> that's kayla in washington for us that does it for us. thanks for watching. >>thank u, scottins right now. we'll pick it right up with stephanie miller who joins me right now. cofounder of sand hill strategy and cnbc contributor and policy analyst, james both standing by listening for some further reaction to what we just heard from mulvaney at the white house today. would love your thoughts jimmy about having this important summit at trump's property and what that is likely going to do

to increase or alleviate tensions in washington right now? >> well i'm not sure anything alleviates tensions in washington right now the president making a decision which seems to especially rich him on some level seemingly does it already there's been criticism of the president you know you have the trump hotel washington, d.c. here. where a will the of people stay. a lot of business is done. so list hn, the whole thipg is going to come across to a lot of people as sketchy. the mulvaney might be right. there are so many things on the democrats agenda like impeachment they might not get to it. >> stephanie, your thoughts on the announcement and was there anything else you heard from mulvaney you think is news worthy? >> i only caught the very end unfortunately so it's all on doral. i think i mean people who hate him are just going to keep hating him people who love him are going to keep loving him. it's hard to imagine this is the straw that breaks the camel's back, but it's not helpful

probably for the folks who are already angry with him >> you krauzed the phrase the straw that breaks the camel's back markets are kind of shaking off this morning this dramatic meeting at the white house last night nancy pelosi said the president had a meltdown andmy jimmy, duh this represent a straw breaking a camel's bakr or is this just politics as usual for this white house and administration >> i don't think it is politics as usual because you have impeachment on the agenda. i think highly likely that democrats and the house will impeach the president. when i look at anything happening right now, i figure what will republican voters think about this and what will gop senators think about this will it make it more or less likely that enough of these would decide to vote against the president and convict the president and send a trial >> that's an interesting point

>> this kind of petty corruption, that doesn't help. abandoning the kurds that doesn't help. the ukraine, that doesn't help and the fact that so many republicans have sort of had you know, take the, these china tariffs, many of these people are still hawkish free traders and accept these tariffs and now it looks like the president's cutting a deal that looks like really a nondeal a lot of these increments add up make it more likely they'll find enough gop senators to convict the president. >> one final thing on this, then i want to ask you about some policy implications, but you mentioned that would this tip enough staenators to move forwa with his impeach that's a big statement seems like we're a long ways from there one of the people we had on there the other day said his editions are creating a crisis in washington, but not among his base do you think that's right or is he losing that core support that

could push senators away from supporting the president >> listen, i don't think you can look at sort of national polls it's really a state by state sort of thing. you have to look at senators who are going to retire. up for re-election either this year or in two years let me tell you something. i've done this, i know others have when you start going senator by senator, the numbers starts to look a lot not zero, starts to look something closer to 20 and even if like half a dozen or ten republican senators voted to convict the president, that would be a crippling political blow for the president i've had this conversation before on cnbc where everyone asks like there's no way he's going to be impeached. i think that will happen and i think the odd of conviction are a lot hire than you think. >> stephanie, hearing all of that, there are a couple of other things the market squarely focusing on passing the new nafta. in fact, listen to what larry

kudlow said about this passage and nancy pelosi's cooperation this morpg >> speaker pelosiy has been accommodative and accessible and helpful. regarding u.s. mca i think speaker on that subject, even while she disagrees on others, i think she's been help l. >> he's saying this this mevenfc showdown is this true there's still abip which now even richard trumka on the labor side is coming out against? this is going to be a tough one any way r for her to support >> yeah i think the big e risk probably to the market and to pelosi is the idea that trump might call her bluff if she takes too long and threaten to pull out of nafta. and leave the united states with no north american free trade agreement. that's why the market cares deeply because a lot of folks believe it's like lipstick on a pig. similar version of nafta and so

that's fine. no one needed a huge change to and a hanafta and great, whatev they're going to do, but the idea that free trade with canada and mexico could go away has a lot of people freaked out. the reason why democrats care is it's much about the state. the farmers need this. autos and the industries that they, that they represent are very involved and you know with the chamber of commerce behind it, you can get a bipartisan coalition. >> stephanie, what would you have said the odds of passing usmca were over is summer and now. >> i've long heard in washington over the summer, the divide's getting way too big. like i don't know if usmca can pass, but i thought it could because of the political incentives i was just talking about. so my odd, i haven't put, let me think of what icht to say. around 75% probably and i don't think that's changed even with impeachment.

>> wow >> i would have six in ten over the summer about four in ten now! i love this. i love this and i love the senate conviction, too this is excellent. >> jimmy's really bringing the heat this afternoon. >> i have decimal points i can take it out a few spaces >> we might have to. thank you both really appreciate it i know a lot of fast moving news developments there stephanie and james joining me this afternoon the cast in washington as i said is not tripping the markets up much today. the dow and s&p are 2% of their all time highs are investors betting if fed will overcome? here's what larry kudlow had to say about rates. >> they're predicting another 25 basis points a reduction at the fed meeting i concur with that >> another 25 basis point rate cut larry kudlow is saying

for more on the market's dependence on the fed, chief peter is here and barry james is in the house president of james vest x research rarer to have f you around the table. so welcome, great to see you both peter, we just had this discussion about impeachment and this drama in washington and frankly, it looks less likely we're going to get more fed rate cuts. because of the data or how much do you think can and will be here >> well, i think that the fed's going to pause in october. but when you're cutting interest rates from a very low base, the ability for you to stimulate the economy is very limited. and you look at the housing market the bond market's given the housing market a 100 point cut helped the housing market soing if the fed is sell whag they've done so far as insurance and

they talked about the uncertainty about what's going on overseas and now you get a brexit deal and china, truce, whatever you want to call it why not wait and wait until december for example and see how u things play out. because the -- >> you think that's what they're messaging lately we heard charles evans speak to point. are you hearing enough to convince you there's not going to be a rate cut >> i think so. already two dissents are locked in not much in the economy has changed since the last meeting and going into the meet ng two weeks. so it's not like some of the doves will have more reason to act again. i think what's wrong with waiting to see how things go, but even again, a rate cut's not going to hmatter off set tariffs on $360 billion worth of goods rate cuts from a low level are not going to mr. >> barry, you agree with that? how much importance are you placing on the october cut if it happens? how much, how significant is the

fact we just didn't have further tear i have hikes this week or maybe the market hoping we don't get that $150 billion hike in december >> i think it just adds a little confusion. i don't think it has much of an impact just like peter said. i kind of look at the market like a corn maez maze. what we have in ohio it leaves investors in a hard place. >> we know people have pulled a lot of money out of this market. bearish levels really high bullish level very low does that make you more optimistic here we are sitting 2% from all time highs at the same time, for 18 months now, the market has been choppy and overall u more or less sideways >> all this confusion and yet the market's gone up >> exactly >> and the long-term momentum is positive the macro economic indicators we follow are actually starting to turn up a little bit the raw data that comes in is coming in better than

expecteded it's not great, but better than expected so all those things would lead us to believe there's still upside left in the market! pete . >> peter, are you u still cautious maybe the worst news is priced in and it's not going to continue getting worse we heard today from the ceo of union pacific. he saw no signs of improvement and talked about the economy continuing to slow >> that's been the worst part. freight numbers have been awful for sure >> so the question of course is we all talk about is when does it turn over and impact the consumer at least right now, we're seeing a slow down in the pace of hirings. but still low level of firings but putting aside the retail sales number that was sought yesterday, if you look at the beige book, the comments on retail sales were choppy. uneven you saw some spots in some different districts that were positive and you saw some signs

that consumers are holding back. so i think that we're not out of the clear and if anything, i do think the economy continues to slow if these tariffs remain on for a period of time certainly going into 2020. >> barry just thinks everyone needs a drink. he's bullish on molsen coors >> that's right. all confusion. out in the corn maze, pop open a -- >> no in all seriousness, we can play this talk about those in the past guys, thank you both really appreciate it come back, join peter from now on forget the corn maze we have a news alert on juul let's get to frank holland >> juul announcing it will suspend all sales of most favored products with the exception of mint, menthol and tobacco, releasing this statement saying we continue to review our policies and practices in advance of the

fda's flavor guidance. we're refrain iing from lobbyin the administration and its draft flavor guidance and will fully comply with the final policy juul gets about 80% of its revenue from flavored products according to the hemt and human services, about two-thirds of high school students say the fruit flavors are their favorite the company telling angelica from cnbc.com that under the new ceo, juul is conducting a review of the company's practices and poll is sies and as part of that process, the company decided to suspend all broadcast, print and digital advertising. they'll stop the efforts with administration say iing that the fda's premarket approval process is the best way to assess if vaping product ks help smokers stop using traditional cigarettes they have to submit the application by may of next year. again, juul says it will stop the sale of most flavors with

the exception of mint, menthol and tobacco. >> we're showing altruia shares. they're hanging on to a 1% gain. we spoke yesterday about how a judge in a state in this country pushed back against the ban on flavored vapes by saying it could really hurt the entire vaping industry. if juul is now saying it's not even going to sell these products, does that push people into the black market or other offerings or do you think this represents a lack of availability going forward of these products in general? >> juul is the most popular brand on the market so it's really a big question. i have spoken to a number of vape shop owners they say about 90% come from flavors. there is a risk people will get what they want consumers will always get what they want. cannabis is legalized now but before it was, people found other way to get it. >> fascinating thanks very much for bringing

iit to us. here's what else is ahead on the exchange >> coming up netflix shares come back down to earth after a big post earn surge. are investors waking up to the idea that maybe friendly competition won't be so friendly plus, banks are embracing technology faster than ever. and shelling out lots of money for it but do machines and money actually pay off in the long run? we'll explore. and bring on the burritos. why one analyst says chipoltle shares could double from here. tell him we're flexible. don't worry. my dutch is ok. just ok? tell him we need this merger. it's happening..!

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netflix is the stock of the day after the company reported results beating expectations, butmissing estimates for subscriber growth. the shares have been fluctuating wildly since this report came out last night they were up 10 thers ma% this g now 3.5% the ceo is shrugging off competition by telling inves r tors that quote, the likely launch from these new services will be b to accelerate the shift from linear tv to online entertainment which would benefit netflix. will it really lift all boats? i'm joined my sarah fisher and steve.

sarah, and by the way, you've rightly emphasizeded the debt load here that netflix has so inves sors to be skittish about this company since their last miss. what do you think is the main thing they're hang their hats on >> i think the reason you saw the giant increase in the stock was because they added a loft subscribers internationally, but also they beat on profit i think that was optimistic to investors, but the thing that would make me bearish is that they said their strategy is to pour more money into content and so if you're an investor here, netflix has high leverage. there's a little concern they're not going to be able to continue to ask for this break if they still owe so much money. >> so their options, steve, if we say okay, they face an increased competition on streaming inside if by the way, the company is saying since their price increase in january, retention hasn't yet fully returned to

preprice change levels and that's affecting them. what options do they have. >> spending more they had two admissions yesterday. it's too expensive and people are dropping out and we don't have enough stuff coming out regularly enough for people to watch. this is what happened in q2. we had nothing for people to watch so people ditched it and it's too expensive you have disney looming. 6.99 a month it's going to be three quarter o f a century of content everything from mickey mouse to luke sky walker. netflix hasn't have that they believe we can build a franchise on a disney level, bu haven't proven it yet with maybe the exception of stranger things >> i do wonder if investors will say if this is your only option then you have to spend as much as possible and you have to get as many hits at possible, right? >> i think they have to spend, sure, but i think they need a more targeted content strategy when netflix was just trying to replace paid tv, scale and

content matter it mattered that you had a a large library, but now that they're competing with so many other counties, it's not just about scale. i think they need to invest a lot in content, sure, but they need to build flan franchises and be more selective about how they invest. >> we all know what disney stands for elon has following these headlines from mark zuckerberg's speech on free expression. it kicked off at the top of the hour was supposed to. it's on facebook live right now. what is is he say something. >> well the speech has been going on for just a few minutes, but it's clear this is going to be a very personal speech for mark zuckerberg. he said the theme is about freedom of exprex and giving voice to people gives power to the powerless and has the ability to change society for the better he talked about the jarring experience of being this college and going into the iraq war and that taught him he said that

connection at an individual level is a very important thing. he also talked about representative elijah cummings, who passed away early this morning. he gave a touching remembrance of him and said he's been important as a convener and that's something facebook aims to do and that slavery cannot tolerate freedom of expression zuckerberg has been teeing this up as a major speech about his philosophy he said this would be an unfiltered take in a post yesterday on facebook about the way he see it is the platform and the world. l we'll be watching it as it continues to go on and keep you posted with the latest >> thanks very much and quickly in terms of elijah cummings, just shocking news this morning awful. he was really you know such an important figure and we mourn his passing. on the point of what zuckerberg is saying though, elon said this is very personal to him.

what is the purpose of this speech it's been in the works for a while. a big deal what is this really about? >> i think there's been a lot of new us headlines lately around facebook's decisions around free speech bl it's political ads, keepi i g politicians on the platform and now is the time where they have to say our decisions around ad hoc. they're grounded in a mission we've always held to i think that's what he's doing now. zpl the argument seems to come down to does facebook need to, should it accept political advertising on the site, getting t sbit kind of messes it got with warren and her advertising the other day r or step back from that and say no, we don't want to get involved we want to keep our hands clean. we've got enough battles to fight. >> does it need, sarah and i were talking about this earlier before we came on air. does it need these no, it's 4 or 5% of their total

ads. probably boost up a bit as election season heats up, but it draws so much negative headlines with so many negative headlines, you have warren basically dunking on them then facebook responding by saying well, these networks air these ads any way and they disprove their own point because they're sec regulated. >> even if they didn't accept it, there's still political content. >> my personal take, the reason facebook ak cements political ads is not for the money because they have ideals around free speech and they think that ak cementing political ads gives people power and voice and drives conversation. i think that's why you're hear ing him talk b about this right now. >> fascinating thank you both appreciate it. coming up, big banks are betting big on big tech. got that the question is at what cost we're going to debate that transformation plus, samsung's latest headache. it's not about a phone breaking, tot about anyone being able break into one with a

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can you explain? >> that's right. first of all, the doral announcement u this was a stunning one because we've never seen a situation where the president can announce the president is having a major international summit at his own resort the white house expecteded criticism on this and he got that i asked mulvaney today in the briefing, how is this not just an enormous conflict of interest and how is the president going to carry on criticizing the biden family for self-dealing at the same time he's doing this. here's what mulvaney said. >> okay, couple of different things first off, you're not making any profit i think we've established that i've heard that before i guess i've been the chief now for nine or ten months and i hear when we go to mar-a-lago, it's a huge branding opportunity. we play golf at trump bedminister, trump in sterling and everybody asks the question. not a huge marketing opportunity. i would ask you to consider the

possibility that donald trump's brand is probably strong enough as it is and he doesn't need any help on that it's not like it's the most recognizable name in the english language and probably around the world right now. i was skeptical. i was aware of the political sort of criticism that we'd come around for doing it at doral which is why i was so surprised when the advance team called back and said this was the perfect physical location to do this i get the criticisms, so does he >> the white house is saying president is going to make profit on this because doral is going to do this, which is an enormous undertaking, at cost. the problem with the argument is that "the washington post" has reported it's struggling financially. even hosting a venue like this at that resort is an enormous marketing and branding opportunity for the trump resort the acting chief of staff there simply glossing over that saying the president's brand doesn't need help, kelly

on this issue of the ukraine, mulvaney, the acting white house chief of staff here, making a step back in the president's defense on this issue that's at the center of the impeachment inquiry. previously, the white house and president said time and again there was no quid pro quo in the hold off on the crew yukrainian defense. that has been the white house's defense until just now now, mulvaney acknowledge iing m the podium that in fact there was a quid pro quo, but not to investigate the bidens simply to look back into the 2016 election and find out if there was any wrong doing there. so mulvaney saying yes, there was a quid pro quo we did hold off the military aid in order to pressure the ukra e ukrainians in order to look into the 2016 election, we didn't go do the quid pro quo about investigation of the bidens. that's a significant walk back of what the administration had been saying to date. >> wow eamon, thanks.

a lot of developments there from just one press event in the last hour or so at the white house today here's what else is coming up on the exchange >> ahead, one firm is betting big in burritos. really big amazon may not be playing fair when it comes to its hot holiday toy list cities are now shelling out big for cyber insurance. it's all coming up on the exchangement

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welcome back let's catch you up on a few stories, time for rapid fire here with us are bill griffith, ra he wi rahel solomon and dominic chu. first up, could the next thousand dollar stock be chipoltle? they'll join amazon and alfa bet alphabet as the member of the club if edward palmer is right he's saying it could double to $1600 a share citing operation readiness and growth he likes the ceo if they have innovations like that going, they could attract a whole new audience

>> so, less than 20% away from 1,000 right now is is it doesn't seem so out of the realm when you think about it, they haven't branched into the family side of the business like happy meallike mcdonald's. doesn that farfetched. >> the ceo in brian nickel is one of those guys who can push that kind of agenda through. now i say that because many viewers now i'm a massive fan of taco bell. the menu items the innovation >> the company or the food i like the food. maybe by proxy the company as well the idea here is if you could find a way as a leader to diversify your businesses, capitalize on trends, prevailing ones in the marketplace, the real story at chipoltle is the dinlgtization of their business. it's a fairly efficient way to go and run a fast food operation. >> bly bity the way, split your. >> i can understand.

yeah, bla, bla any way, i think there are great opportunities for day parts for chipoltle. now this is fast casual, but in the fast food industry, breakfast is huge. chipoltle is not a dominant dinner time thing. i think they could move into that area as well. if you read the report, it gets down in the weeds in terms of margins and these things and metrics they're measuring, but in terms of the opportunities that exist for a company that has a very popular brand >> right as long as they don't have any more food sxwcares. >> the analyst who made the call, david palm rer, he's going to join us on "power lunch" in the hour so we can press him for more on these details. meantime, amazon is out with its annual toy list. it's being cure rated to help shoppers tackle their list quickly, but new reports say amazon sells sponsored spots on this list for up to $2 million

and is looking to make at least $20 million off of this year's list now bill, who is shaking his head say sponsors are only increasing their odds of being selected like when you're marketing yourself for the grammy's. let's not be naive this is a big nothing burger as far as i'm concerned companies in the grocery business, they pay stocking fees to be placed at eye level on the shelves. i mean this is nothing new of course they would want to charge to get into the catalog to get into the circulars. >> it was new to me. >> are they be transparent >> i would like to know. >> is a supermarket transparent about stocking fees? no i'm sure walmart does the same thing. it's much ado about nothing as far as i'm concerned >> my first concern was what if oprah did this with the oprah book club?

paying her >> there's a book list and she's promoting. >> she agrees with the quality >> she's not sell iing the book. >> if you look at any of these resite view sites, there are times when we're paid referral fees if you go to wire cutter from "the new york times" and they have all these review sites, if you click on the link because you like the review and you buy it, sometimes, those companies will get a cut of the sale that happens from that transactions >> hold that thought we'll come back if we can. we are getting more news out of d.c. mike pence has just made a major statement as we understand it about turkey let's listen in. >> earlier this week, president trump took decisive action to call on turkish forces to stand

down, end the violence, agree to negotiations and today, i'm proud to report thanks to the strong leadership of president donald trump, and the strong relationship between president erdogan and turkey and the united states of america that today, the united states and turkey have adpreeed to a cease fire in syria turkish side will pause operation peace spring in order to allow for the withdrawal of wpg forces from the safe zone for 120 hours. all military operations under operation peace spring will be pause paused and it will be halted entirely on completion of the withdrawal our administration has been in contact with syrian defense

forces and we have already begun to facilitate their safe withdrawal from the nearly 20 mile wide safe zone area south of the turkish border in syria. let me say this also includes an agreement by turkey to engage in no military action against the community of ko bani and in addition, the united states and turkey have both muty committed to a peaceful resolution and future for the safe zone working on an international basis to ensure that peace and security defines this border region of syria. in addition to the settlement today, with the cease fire, turkey and the united states

mutually committed to the defeat isis activities in northeast syria. this will also include an agreement renewed today to coordinate efforts on detention facilities and internally displaced persons in formerly ice is controlled areas. also, turkey and the united states agree on the priority of respecting vulnerable human life, human rights and particularly the production of religious and ethnic communities in the region. i spoke to president trump just a few moments ago. and i know the president is very grateful for president erdogan's willingness to step forward and to enact this cease fire and to give an opportunity for a peaceful solution of this conflict that commenced one week

ago. for my part, i'm grateful for the president's leadership fiveour of negotiations.e than with president erdogan and his team that arrived at a solution that we believe will save lives. and let me also say i'm very grateful for this team and to be able to have alongside the secretary of state mike pompeo our national security adviser, robert o'brien jim jefferies and david sat satterfield is a great privilege and each of the members of this team contributed equally to achieving this outcome which is a great contribution to security in this region and a great contribution to the strong and enduring relationship between the united states of america and turkey

lastly, i want to express my appreciation to millions of americans who i know were carrying this moment in prayer we heard from people all over the country. whose hearts were heavy with the loss of life in this con flix over the last week long to see it brought to an end. and i believe their prayers, the strong leadership that president trump provided to this moment and the cooperation with president erdogan and turkey has made this possible so again -- >> that -- all military operations will be paused. this as it concerns the kurds in syria. that the u.s. will begin to facilitate the safe withdrawal of kurdish troops and the deals for turkey to not engage in the

military operation in cobani kayla is stand big in washington with the reaction to these headlines. the president tweeting this is great news saying millions of lives will be b saved. this is the latest in a dramatic series of events that goes back just to last week. >> it is one week ago that turkish forces entered northern syria where the u.s. forces had withdrawn leading to potential escapes of isis detainees in that area which the vice president says the two countries, turkey and the u.s., have now agreed to renew koorduatikoor coordination the vice president says this cease fire was the result of five hours of negotiation between himself, the secretary of state and president erdogan what the vice president did not say is what the u.s. is providing in return. we know president trump does not want u.s. forces in that region. he wants to remove forces from the middle east to the extent

that he can. and we know that he has threatened to obliterate the turkish economy as a result and has suggested he would increase tariffs on turkish steel to 50% from 25%, which he lowered in may. pence did not say what the u.s. promtsed turkey in return for its commitment to stop the fire that it began just one week ago. but the vice president and the secretary of state are both traveling with many members of the media and we expect that's going to be one of the key questions that will be asked >> and one thing the vice president has said is that the u.s. has agreed to withdraw economic sanctions after the implementation of this deal. obviously a major piece of news. the sanctions were also austuth, but not going into effect. that was going to be a couple of months out in terms of further action there you said the cease fire is for 120 hours? is that right? >> that's what i heard the vice president say just when we were

listening in just now. >> wow, not a long time. >> and certainly, there are details to work out and this was at potentially at the behest of many republican lawmakers on capitol hill who had raised significant concerns about the president's very quick decision to remove those forces without consulting anyone on capitol hill and the, the perceived abandonment of kurdish allies who the president yesterday called no angels themselves, so definitely a lot of sighs of relief not only the americans that the vice president just mentioned there, but also republican members of congress who had been raising concerns to the white house themselves, too. >> kayla, thank you so much. kayla is in washington with r more on these major headlines. we'll keep monitoring the story. we'll have more on the other side stay with us - [spokesman] if you've tried college but never finished,

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welcome back one of the big stories of late has been rare earth minerals

some of the most important elements in the trade battle what are they and why should we care brian sullivan is in mountain pass, california live today looking at that answer brian. >> yeah, those are great questions. i was asking myself that very question when we were here at the mine at 3:00 in the morning. why do we care for a will the of reasons. here's the irony if you want to have reknewab newable, wind turbine, drive a hybrid or electric car, if you want to be green, you're going to have to dig in a mine like this because so many of the key components that make the new technologies work actually come from just digging rocks out of the ground, refining the process down and then converting them into magnets so this mine here in mountain pass, california is about 60 years old. every color tv screen in the world for 40 years came from the rocks here but now as technology's advanced, they've developed all these new technologies and

basically, they're they go into magnets. there was a bunch out there. about five that matter and they're so critical that the trump administration put an executive order in late 2017 urging the government to find long-term supply chains. kind of grinds it down to like a talcum like thing. those come from china. people like to say we produce this in america, well we don't know we don't have the supply chains. so far there's not a lot of tariffs coming this way. these mine owners, their tariffs are going another way. china does it on a non-environmental way and they've got the tariffs but still managing to get this mine going. here is a basic example.

about nine years ago china reduced their export quotas. they are trying to penalize japan over this dispute on the islands. the equivalent going to a wind turbine would have cost 80,000 before the export ban, prices for this shot up to 500,000. 80,000 to 500,000 because china cut off supplies bottom line is if we want new technologies and electric car, sometimes you have to go play in the dirt >> bryan, can china hold us hostage with these still today yes or no? >> yeah. yes. absolutely yes they can. this mine in california still ships their stuff to china to be refined because we don't have the capacity here. they're trying to shift that they will try to open that up within next year to try to reduce that dependence but right

now you're right if china want to cut off the supplies, they could and tesla might not be able to get their batteries. apple might not be able to get their batteries to go in the iphone you want to build these technologies here, these are the guts >> we know china still has the leverage thank you so much. bryan sullivan is in california. big banks are spending millions on technology it's worked out great for some trsnot for othe ishis the future of banking and who is next to dominate it that's next. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

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now. welcome back to the exchange we just had this major announcement from vice president pence the dow is up 41 points or so the s&p is up 11 shares of smile direct which are getting hit again. they are down about 12%. appears to have to do with the filing in california we'll continue to keep an eye on this smile direct shares are at 9:00. moving on, morgan stanley

reported strong earnings this morning. the stock jumped 4% at its session high and training revenue was a particular bright spot different story from results earlier this week. that stock slumped after a miss on revenues and profit goldman is slashing employee pay to boost tech venture likeappl cards. they are investing millions in technology with they paying off with me is senior finance reporter at business insiders and cnbc banking reporter. hugh, this is your story what's happening with employee pay there which is always the number one topic of concern. >> if you look at the chart it's been going down for the last ten years. a lot of that has to do with the demise of trading as this huge moneymaker we're talking about the transformation that is being enacted at goldman the cfo told thea agnalysts it

becomes more of a software base platform company the importance of human intermediation should go down, compensation should go down >> look at morgan stanley, having a great day the earnings have pretty strong. their strategy has been wealth management we're going to grow the business that way goldman is doing more of the consumer banking that leans on technology is the market telling the us that morgan strategy is working better than goldman? >> i think it is interesting because morgan stanley hasn't been as vocal as goldman it might be a little too early to kind of call it as morgan making the right choice. i think goldman would probably point to the progress that marquee has made or the tech investment they are making into their new trading platform

>> you think it looks like the investments that goldman is making, the transformation has been huge and gotten a lot of ink. all of those need more time to pay off? >> to diversify away from these capital market businesses. that's why they are reading the benefits of it today if you take their side, they're saying it will come down in a few years. it takes years for that to come through. >> it's interesting. it's very crowded right now and competitive. there's a lot of low hanging fruit. is goldman going to differentiate it >> you do need to be careful with some your bets. you look at someone like a jpmorgan they go in on something like fin and less than a year later they have to shut it down

it's not 100% a safe bet. look at five years ago, how many times did you get a pitch on innovation center how many times are you hearing explanations about look at all the stuff that came out of it? i don't get those. >> a lot of that is innovation window dressing. >> there's the innovation issues that we talk about investments in new players and so forth. on trading, is that investment paying off >> it hasn't yet but they just announced $100 million investment this is the topic we're talk about. we're talking about users clients working with software versus calling up their friend if you look at goldman and their strength, i wouldn't bet on this >> have to leave it there. goldman sach ceo will be on the closing bell today in just over

an hour'tiit's at 3:15 that does it for the exchange. power lunch begins right now thank you very much. we start with breaking news. breaking in just the last few moments. vice president mike pence saying the u.s. and turkey have agreed to a cease-fire in syria mick mulvaney the g7 will be at president trump's resort in doral. >> reporter: turkey has agreed to a five-day or more exact 120 hour cease-fire that would pause military operations in northern syria so the u.s. can remove kurdish forces from a 20-mile safe zone. the vice president announcing this earlier today i believe we have the vice president in his own