robert, thank you. that was fantastic. very interesting. >> i spent most of my evening watching taylor swift watch travis kelsie. >> who i was watching was ryan reynolds of the stock draft. he was in the box, too. >> talking netflix, no doubt. >> thanks for watching "power lunch "qwest. >> "closing bell "ket" starts r now. i'm scott wapner from post 9. the ten-year hitting a fresh new high today which means big shocker, equities begin in october much like they ended the previous month, mostly lower and 60 minutes to go in regulation and the major averages, as well and i want you to pay close attention over the final hour within what's happening within the s&p 500 today and utilities suffering the biggest decline in a decade. look at that loss. you just don't see a sector move to that degree all that often

probably on the continued move in interest rates. it's a stunning sell-off there today. materials, energy, staples also decidedly weaker. also tech and communication services have been about the only bright spot, there they, still hanging in the green and it's kept the market picture from looking worse, as well. nvidia, apple and amazon getting a lift today. it takes us to the talk of the tape and whether the fourth quarter will deliver investors as history would suggest as it does, or is this hill's too steep to decline. >> nice to see you. when you sat down, utilities, it's pretty stunning to see a sector move to that degree. it is incredibly stunning and there's the yield impact. if you look at a dividend yield of 100 basis points less than the ten-year treasury and why take on the rick of compliance

and revelation when you can buy it, if what we're seeing within the technology side of things and they're a bit more defensive and is that why we're seeing so much strength in mega-caps as they see them away and interesting, too. >> you can easily understand and the ten-year hits 470. it's a cycle high, well, obviously growth is going to be down. not so much today, though. is that what you think it is? money coming out of places like utilities and just going for safety or more defensive and again, out of staples, too and into defensive areas like mega-cap tech. >> it feels like that because mega-cap tech has had earnings resilience and if you look over the last sickle, tech had better downside performance in recessions in its earnings than

even utilities did. the problem with it is that you can't pay any price for defensiveness or for safety or for quality, and the question is if you see these valuations continue to expand as the only game in town, do you run right into having those high interest rates put pressure on those valuations and what degree of resilience are you pricing in. >> how are you feeling about yields? are you feeling like we're nearing's top? with such a swift rise in september. the market was unsettle as a result of all that, feeling toppy now? what do you think? >> yields are over bought or bonds are oversold. we've seen this move be near parabolic which means you could see some digestion that could provide some relief in the fourth quarter, but i think if we look at the trend in yields it is still respoundingly positive to the upside any then when we think about the

fundamental dine aches where supply is coming in much higher than expected because of higher deficits and there's not the demand for the safety trade yet from the market. if you think about demand coming worried about a recession. you're not seeing the same flock to safety yields. >> let's think about valuations and whether they're too expensive or not and we're looking at michael kolanovic, j.p. morgan and when he publishes a note we bring it to our viewers and i want to do it again now. quote, our cautious outlook will remain in place as long as interest rates remain deeply restrictive. valuations, expensive and the overhang of geopolitical risks persists. valuation, the multiple on the market, price relative to earnings. is it too rich or not? >> i think it is too rich, and we've been thinking about how we hit a ceiling effectively at the end of july where the forward valuation traded up to 20 times earnings. tech got up to its prior high

from 2021 in its valuation which was very, very rich. we've seen that come off some. you're now up to a turn of long-run average and given where we are in interest rates it's likely to say that we could see more come out of the valuations and mostly on the growth side of things. if you start to see a shift to more risk off type of positioning with and the risk aversion come back to the market. >> what about the notion of what i was talking about with the conversation i had with david tepper. we're moving from the era of qe to an yeara of qt. it's just a higher rate environment and you have to decide which earnings you want to be scene and current one and more justified and therein lies the current trick because we

shouldn't figure out. >> we look at how qe utilized their balance sheets to borrow and buy back shares and increase eps growth and so what you're seeing is this major shift away into what drove the market in the prior cycle lower interest rates helped drive higher valuations and help boost earnings growth to a world now where higher interest rates do put more pressure valuations. it doesn't mean that we can't still get good, organic earnings growth, but the overall upside given the higher interest rate world is less than what we had in the prior cycle. >> is it overstating it to suggest that the market as a whole is overvalued because it's being too skewed by the performance of the magnificent seven where if you take those out and you look at the, you know, the ordinary 493, whatever you want to call it, the equal weight s&p 500 and small caps, for example, it's not nearly as valuation heavy as the other

part of the market is, but the part that is is small. >> it is such a good point because what you have seen is that if you look at the equal weight index it is now trading below the long run valuation and it is down half a percent this year and so there are places for value to be had. the point, though is that it hasn't been enough to get those parts of the market to work. you've seen the equal weight continue to underperform the top parts of the market. it does remind you, if we continue to get more and more narrow of the air of the nifty fifty which was in the late '06s and the early '70s, they tradeded at a high valition and and you could own nothing west and they underperformed. you can't type any price even for the highest call. >> what seemsto be a raktive and cheap. energy? financials. what areas, if any, in that group okay, i'd be willing to

place some bets here now. >> the energy you're seeing flows out of the sector and people have effectively given up on the sector. there are a lot of businesses within the sector that have great operating leverage which just mean as oil prices go up the revenues go up. they're not spending as much as they have in pryor cycles and so you can see a bigger jump in the boost for earnings and as we roll on 2024, the sector will have the high of the earnings growth as the s&p 500. >> do you believe where they are now? >> this is too opportunity 34i69ic when we'll have a niece turn and the fore story feds erle to tell chr going to happen and margin pressures, at 12% for share, you're not price anything downside scenario for the chief to surprise to the down side.

>> tomorrow, we have the benefit of ease yer yore year comps, but if you see an economic still bell where inunemployment goes up and the consumerence spendses, less, and that's why we have to remain, very, very nim bull because earnings revisions moving lower would be the key negative for this market. >> no doubt about that. we'll get those starting in a week or so. so, keithler learner of truist wealth johns us. how do you see the first quarter. >> good to see you scott and cameron. the ten-year is at 470. of course, we'll need stabilization for this market to find its footing. i will say we've been in the view of seeing a choppy range and at this point i'm starting to lean more positive at least into the fourth quarter. i realize everyone is looking at

the same 32-day moving average and my guess is we'll get below that to flush things out a bit and we're moving more to an oversold condition and 10% of stocks today and we're above the 50-day moving average since the low and that's the lowest sinces fall. valuations are not cheap, but they have reset from 19.5 to about 17.8. i heard the conversation around the magnificent seven. >> if you're want a 15 point and at least somewhat better, between 47470 and 5% on the 10-year yield will start to stabilize and we have a chance for a rally in the fourth quarter here, but again, i think we may need more of a flush before we get there. >> i've heard people suggest, keith that rates have stocks have gone up together often. it's not -- it doesn't have to

be the headwind that everybody is trying to make it out to be to which i suggest, yeah as long as the speed of which they've been going up stabilizes in and of itself. that was the issue in season september, but the idea that let's just say rates remain where they are now for a little while. what happens to stocks? >> i think stocks can do fine, okay, and not great. the point you had was spot-on. at the end of august we were at 4.09 and now we're at 4.70. i think interest rate sensitive and look at real estate that are making new relative lows and the small caps underperforming on a relative basis, as well. but i do think if you get some stabilization and i think it has to be helpful and there are a lot of technical things behind the scene and the technical is the risk-free rate and the hedge fund strategies and all of that increases volatility, as well. to me it's more important that we see some stability coming back down.

we don't need to go below 4%, but we do need to see cooling for the market to be fine. >> what do you make, keith, that here we are talking about the cycle high and comp services and the stocks are in the green. if not for this it this market would look worse than it is today and it's not even that bad. >> even before today if you look underneath the surface. we have the s&p down more than 10%. small and midcaps down 11, 12%. it's uglier below the surface. i think what's interesting is last year the whole discussion was rates up, bad for tech and communications, and we are seeing them hold up. i think the reason why they're holding up is cameron alluded to before and earnings in the sector in technology are stronger than the overall market and the other thing you forget about is a lot of these big-cap tech companies hold a lot of cash. guess what? as interest rates go up they're earning more money on their cash, as well so it is a defensive area of the market and the communications services

continues to be one of our favorite areas of the market. >> do you think, cameron, the consumer will hang in for longer than people think? now we're starting to get, obviously, the consumer has to this point, but can it continue? >> it depends on the path of energy prices, i think, in the near-term because falling energy prices did help to boost consumer spending because what we saw is real wage growth recovered. so for all of the other headwinds that the consumer had, real wage growth being better did help sustain consumer spending, but now we've spent on the savings and we have the student debt repayments and now if we start to see real wage growth you can see the consumer stumble. i got the most interesting thing coming out of the ism manufacturing today was that they called out hiring freezes and if we start to see more hiring freezes, what do we get in the upcoming months from a payroll standpoint? >> yeah.

speaking of, i mentioned a kolanovic note and i have it in frofr front of me now so i can give you more color. this trend is likely to continue absent a cut in rates. oil price surge adding a drag in growth. while we are not saying that the situation now is the same as in '0 '07 and '08 there are enough similarities to warrant caution. i hate the comparisons of '07 expect '08 because the period now is so incredibly different than it was then, but nonetheless, that's a respected view from somebody, a big shot who mentions at least some similarities, if not all too familiar. >> just because it's not as bad as the worst consumer balance sheet crisis in history doesn't mean that we shouldn't worry about it, meaning that yes, you are starting to see delinquency rates go up. they have moved up rather quickly, they are well below the

financial crisis and the speed is notable. to his point is yes, it might not be the gsc, but it's not something that we can ignore and mostly given the fact that 70% of the economy is driven by the consumer. >> what about the idea that he puts puts forth, keith that he gets rate cuts and once you feel like you've sniffed it out, what does that mean for your overall outlook for stocks? does it change at that very moment? >> no, because if we get rate cuts and maybe for a bad reason and maybe because the economy's slowing down at a more rapid pace which would hurt earnings? >> in some ways what i'm looking forward to is the employment and labor market still sees relativ relatively strong and the consumer may hold just fine and cooling from a very strong level and if you look at the earnings side of the equation and what this all moves into we are at an 18-month high. the other point going back to the question you had before.

before the gloenl financial crossis and it was from 19.90 it hasn't averaged am 5%. this is a more normal wade in the haft decade when you think about the equity and ten-year relationship 37. >> sure, but the issue, obviously, as you know is the speed to getting t yes. 5% is not fall off the bed, but zero to 5% in 14 months or whatever is a bit jarring, no? >> i think that's why we're having this direction that i mentioned before. below the surface is much deeper. in order to stabilize this market, to make that fourth quarter rally which we still think is not like 10%, 15% rally, but we think there is a rally attempt, you need to see the ten-year stabilize. we think it most likely does between here and maybe 5.10 on the ten-year and i think that will help the overall market. i think near-term again, we are more likely to do a flush before

we get to that potential of the fourth quarter rally. >> i'll give you the last word, cameron. >> do you believe in a fourth quarter chase? >> i think the more we talk about it the less likely it will happen. we do know the fourth quarter if you started the year strong does have the best returns for the year which would be encouraging and it's on average of 4% and that wouldn't bring us back to the prior high that we reached in july. so putting it into context it's a positive for seasonality and the more we talk about it the less likely. >> if you can get 3% to 4%, rates were good enough and earnings were cool enough and that will be two things to turn the clean art. good to see you. cameron dawson. keith, good to see you. keith lerner. >> what will be the best performing sector in the fourth quarter? tech, energy, consumer discretionary or financials and

we'll share the results later on in the hour. in the meantime a check of top stocks to watch and here's pippa stephens. >> discover financial is having its best day since last november after promising to have the consumer compliance part of the fdic look with an unrelated credit card classification error. shares are down more than 20% since then. jefferies is bullish on diabetes device makers saying the recent wave of drugs won't drag on the companies as much as fear. they reiterate their buy ratings on scott. >> thanks, pippa stevens. >> up next, from a september slump to a year-end surge, ed yardeni makes the argument for why stocks can bounce back to record highs or recent highs, excuse me, recent highs. he may think record highs, too. we'll talk about that.

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welcome back. the stock is trading lower to kick off the new month of trading. my next guest says it will be fueled by a better than expected season. ed yardeni of yardeni research. welcome back. it's good to see you. >> thank you, scott. >> so i just read what marco kolanovic at j.p. morgan said, and i want you it address two

things. rates are high and restrictive and valuations expensive. disagree? >> the bond yield is actually back to where it was before the great financial crisis. you know, we had this great, abnormal environment between the great financial crisis and the great virus crisis and now the bond yield was trading around 4.5%, 5% in 2003 and 2004, 2005 and 2006. so i think we are back to normal. we normalized the bond yield in the past three years and the economy withstood it remarkably well. i'm not convinced that the economy itself is showing that it's resilient. from that perspective i'm not convinced that these rates will crush the economy. >> so, that wasn't part of what one of the guests just said, as well. >> you know, we're back to normal, and i'll give you that. >> okay. >> 5% as i said five minutes ago

is not like it was the end of the world. >> we were at zero forever, theoretically forever and now we're at 5%. >> absolutely. >> i think it's somewhat unfair to just say, well, we're back to normal because 5% is where we were before the financial crisis. >> no. it's a very good point, scott. i've been arguing that the economy is in a recession and i've been making that argument since the beginning of last year and i've been calling it i rolling recession and the surge in mortgage rates has created a recession in the housing market and to be more exact it was a recession in the single-family housing market and now it looks like it's bottoming as the multi-family housing market has taken a dive because rent inflation has come down a lot which is great for the inflation outlook, but i tell you, scott, these rates will kill a lot of projects in the commercial real estate market. we have people who are in that markets place as accounts that are managing distressed asset

funds and in the one hand they're very happy to see distressed assets that offer great opportunities for them to turn around. on the other hand they own some of these assets that they bought with record low interest rates. now they have to refinance them and the math just doesn't work. so i agree there are problems out there and i'm not saying everything is hunky-dory. i think saying that the economy on balance has been remarkably resilient. >> you just mentioned and you ticked through recessions and rolling recessions and we can understand that concept and there has not been a recession without question the most important area of the economy, right? and that's the consumer economy. >> consumer. >> what happens if that happens, right? the consumer -- do you believe that the consumer can hang on to the degree that it has? >> you know, you mentioned some of the headwinds that the consumer is facing and the student loan issue, of course, is a big issue and the so-called

excess saving and what's been missing in the discussion is there have been a lot of assets accumulating since the beginning of the pandemic and the net worth of the household sector is up to $155 trillion, the all-time record high and scott, half of that is held by baby d boomers and many of them are retiring and talk about excess savings. the baby boomers have saved for retirement and they have a lot of money to spend. >> do you believe earnings estimates are where they should be for not only the remainder of this year, ed, but as we turn the calendar which is not that far away into 2024? >> scott, i've been at the high end of strategists and more consistent with the analysts, recognizing that the analysts have a tendency to be too optimistic, but i'm expecting that this year will be 225. the analysts are expecting 220 and other strategists have been

expecting much less and some at 185. for next year i'm forecasting 250 and the analysts are forecasting 245 and analysts have been raising their estimates and it looks like the profit margin has turned and it looks like things are getting better at the profits recession which was all due to a shrinkage of the profit margin. i think the profit margin has started to improve. >> that says unequivocally that you believe the economy has slowed any more than it might. you can't believe that. if you have a more optimistic earnings projections than the street. >> just because my numbers are more optimistic does not mean it's more consistent with the economy is growing. >> that's my point. you can't possibly believe that -- forget recession and forget that.

you can't possibly believe that the economy is going to slow at all from here forward if you have those lofty projections. i guess that's my point. >> quarter to quarter there's volatility, but yes, i expect the economy will grow and i don't think it will keep up what we saw in the third quarter which will be 4% to 5% gdp growth and maybe we'll get something less than that in the fourth quarter especially if the auto strike lasts a while. i mean, i can't dismiss the possibility that there will be a negative quarter in the fourth quarter of the auto strike through the end of the year, but that's not what i'm anticipating and i'm expecting there will be a settlement. next year it will be a growth year. the consumer will continue to have employment gains and real wages will be increasing and the secret sauce in thissy is

productivity start nog make a comeback into next year and the following rer and pruf productivity will gives better than expected profits and real wake gains. >> let me ask you a question before i let you run. i'm curious of what you make in the carnage in utilities and i'm seeing is a lot of markets, ed. >> yeah. >> you just don't see sectors like that down 5+ percent in a single session. >> right. >> the decline in a week is almost 12%. yeah. clearly, we have real disturbances in the financial markets right now. the bond yield has absolutely soared ever since fitch downgraded the u.s. debt and made us all realize that we do have a problem with the federal deficit. that hasn't gone away. so i think it's an issue. i think that we're going to find that as inflation continues to moderate these yields in the

bond market and the utility market will attract buyers. >> we'll talk to you soon. >> ed yardeni joining us today on "the closing bell". >> straight ahead, a new high for yields putting pressure on stocks. chris verrone says they'll embrace themrom re a fhend what that could mean for the market when "closing bell" comes right back. with powerful, easy-to-use tools, power e*trade makes complex trading easier. react to fast-moving markets with dynamic charting and a futures ladder that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity. e*trade from morgan stanley.

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bell". the ten-year yield hitting the highest level since '07. joining me now to discuss, chris verrone head of strategic research partners. welcome back. >> great to be here. >> north of 5%. >> yeah. >> to where? >> 510, 520 is the target from the breakout. so if you look at the range we were in for much of the year, you get 510 and 520, but let's not complicate this. we're in a business of trends and until the market says

otherwise the trend is higher. more important than 510 or 517 or 522 it's higher until the market says otherwise. what's remarkable to me is despite how persistent the move in yields have been, if you sauer have a the economist on the street, 48 economists yield to bloomberg every week. neither of them have a forecast of 5% and it's 30 basis points away, scott. >> what makes you think we're going to get there? i understand trends, but it doesn't really -- >> there is every opportunity over the last five or six weeks and even this weekend with the debt deal in washington and everything you throw at this there are more sellers than buyers and it reflects a massive amount of supply that's out there. i also find it notable the part of the market i would expect to work if rates were going to fall continue to be for sale whether it's staples or utilities, et cetera. >> i'm almost getting to the point where i feel like they're quickly becoming too many people on the same side of the too much

supply, no buyer boat. so rates are just going to continue to shoot higher. >> i think the twist i would look for is when the flows into the bond products stop. it just seems so inconsistent to look for a high in yield when everyone is still chasing bonds and the irony is many in the business wait their whole career for bonds to start going up and now that they started going up, everyone is so egoeyer to buy them and it's a remarkable change in psychology over the last 30 years. if you're right and we're talking about 5+ percent and 5 will be the psychological level that people maybe get freaked out. i don't know. but what do stocks do if we get to five? >> i looked at a bunch of stocks, and wrote one note. if this is a bull market, what does a bear market look like? because there are a lot of bad charts out there. i recognize the big weights have keptd the indices above the fold here. >> when you go name by name. only 40% of the s&p is 40% above 200. i recognize where we are and did

not technically oversold. the big story is we are very weak from the foundational perspective from this market and i think rallies from here are sell-off events. use them to sell strength. >> you're looking at nvidia are one of the specific stocks you mentioned and we mentioned all of the meg-cap tech stocks are in the face of rising yields which isn't what we've seen. why were awe a strengthener of nvidia? >> they've thrown out the utilities and the real estate names? >> it's almost capitulate with the bad stuff. we talk about semis or tech and discretionary in such vaulted terms and when you peel back the know onand look at the four or five names that are working and it's not to go under the surface. only 25% of the semiis are under the surface. >> it's completely skewed by amazon and tesla. i totally get it.

>> this pair between discretionary and energy, we looked back at the three prior soft landings in history. '94, '84 and '67 and if it is the right call, discretionary should be broad. the fact it hasn't raises questions there. >> it's funny. i am looking at the list of the sector rankings and the utilities at the bottom. you don't have to be a rocket science that rates are going up and you suggest they going up even more and why it would fall to such a degree that it has on the ranking list and what do you make of what we're watching today? >> it's jarring. i think the price action today is the first time in the whole utility move where there's a hint of capitulation and you're doing 45, 46 million shares on the xlu and maybe the average is 10 or 12 and it's the first day that you've seen some panicky volumes there. what i want to watch for and think about fall of 218. that last leg up in rates you actually started to see the defensive outperform and that's a bad message. so i think be on guard here for

some type of a bounce and staples. we know how bad they are and today is the first day. >> energy is the top holding. >> yeah. >> why? >> 95% of them are babove 200 ad everything we've thrown at them they've brushed off. >> they took six months off and everyone forgot about it. i love the paradox of the 3% cpi of july 12th of this year re-engage this group. it's global. it's the services. it's the grintegrates. they've come off in the past week, i would be a buyer. >> good to see you. >> chris verrone joining us at post 9. >> up next, we're tracking the biggest movers as we head into the close. pippa stevens with that. >> taylor swift's eras tour might be on a pause and we're watching the popping entertainment stock. all of the details up next.

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top 15 or so to go before the closing bell. let's go back to pippa stevens at a look at the stocks she's watching. >> solar edge is weighing on solar stocks as barclays downgrades to equal weight. it expects it to continue to 2024 saying solar edge and enphase can face price cuts, market share losses and weakness in europe. both of those stocks are firmly in negative territory today. shares of sphere entertainment

after the company opened its sphere venue in las vegas over the weekend with a pair of u2 concerts. the company also owns msg networks and plans to build another sphere in london and it's waiting for regulatory approval. the images, scott, are pretty cool. >> the ones i saw over the weekend were -- i don't know, nothing short of stunning. pippa, thank you. that's pippa stevens. last chance to weigh in on the question of the day. what will be the best performing sector, tech, energy, diskregszary or financials? the results after the break. ♪ ♪ ♪

the results now of our question of the day, we asked which will be the best performing sector in q4. the majority of you said technology. up next, tesla deliveries are missing the mark. we'll break down the numbers and how it's impacting the ev space today, plus what instacart's sharp slide could mean for the upcoming ipo pipeline. those stories and much more when we take you inside "the market zone."

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we are now in the closing bell market zone. cnbc senior markets commentator mike santoli here to break down the crucial moments of the trading day. plus phil lebeau shares tesla and rivian's delivery numbers and instacart's sell-off and what it could mean for birkenstock's debut. what stands out to you on a day when there's a lot standing out? >> probably the stark difference between the indexes and what's going on underneath. 88% of the value and you do have the support of the defensive mega-cap stocks. we know that theme. i keep waiting for the moment it's time to start overthinking it, and it seems not to be the time yet while we're making new highs. certainly, you could make the case that in general the indexes have held up better than you might have expected with that ramp to 4.7 on the ten -year

yield. >> i think that's a fair case to make. >> except you're seeing a toll on the small caps that have taken the elevator down the pretty close to the low and far above the december lows. so yeah, wear and tear underneath the surface, we're building these further oversold conditions and i don't think the calendar is the reason to get excited and you do see some things starting to move in favor of the risk reward getting better for a relief rally and we're just not there yet. >> do you want to give your general perspective like what you're seeing in utilities. you mentioned under the surface thing liness that's the point of the ugliness. >> in the best of times utilities are hard to like as businesses and therefore you have to be bribed to own them by high dividend yields. so the dividend yields themselves do not give you a reason because of the relative yield value against bonds. they're getting sold. there's also the fact that the

companies themselves, utility companies are leveraged on their own and they don't have great balance sheets and their debt costs go up and they don'trun great margins and there are reasons why it seems like they're more traouble than they're worth and chris verrone said it's the one part of the market where you see capitulation. that does make sense. ironically, it's also making everybody who does the cyclical sectors analysis and it's only because defensive sectors are so weak like staples and utilities that by comparison things like industrials are hanging in there. >> they have energy and chris verrone as his top-ranked sector. >> down 2% today. i agree with him in general that they have sort of proven their resilience even in poor times earlier this year. i would push back against the idea that they're forgotten or

that they're underloved at the moment and crude futures and people are getting involved at this point and there's no denying that there's both late-cycle leadership and that they have a valuation case to make. >> tesla, though, phil lebeau is one of them and it's barely hanging green after those delivery numbers. >> and a muted react to the delivery numbers for the third quarter from tesla, and they fell short of expectation because people knew you had the shanghai and the texas lines down for the period in the third quarter and the company delivering $435,000 and it didn't get a whole lot of reaction. they did reiterate their guidance for 1.8 million vehicles as they did this year expect rivian, q3 deliveries were better than expected delivering 15,500 vehicles and the street was expecting 14,000 and it, too, reiterated its 2023

production guidance of 52,000 vehicles. hey, scott. don't forget, tomorrow morning squawk box exclusive, we'll talk to rivian owner r.j. scaringe and we'll be on the assembly line and we'll talk about what he's seeing in the ev market. >> we look forward to that. phil lebeau, thank you. >> i'm just noticing and i was talking about itearlier today, speaking of tesla and the biggest holding of the ark innovation fund and it is down le 11% in the month. it moves up, ark moves down. >> the liquidity and long duration funds is in unprofitable ones and the 106% of profits are out in the future and it's a risk appetite. ? sure. it's not a market that's particularly interested in giving the benefit of the doubt to unproven stories and that's yet big faang-type stocks are outperforming because they're

very much known quantities each though they're tech inexpensive and they're reliable. >> leslie picker, instacart, what do we make of this and what's it mean, do you think for birkenstock which we talk now about going public, as well. >> a pretty significant slide for instacart this morning. it's been a rough go ever since this c this company's second day of trading and the reason why it's declining is largely due by the report of the information which cites people familiar with the matter that say that analysts at goldman sachs have private estimates that there could be much sharply, slower revenue growth in the second half compared to the first half of the year. about 7% to 8% revenue growth in the second half compared to 31% in the first half of the year. so sharply lower growth, and the only breakthrough you could really make to birkenstock is maybe the idea that the

companies that that are going now are at peak growth and trying to get out what while they can and strike while the iron is hot. vefrn venture, more of the silicon valley growth company. this is a 250--year-old family owned business until two years ago when it was taken private and this is a sponsor-backed ipo. it doesn't have a decent high-top growth and this is one wch those that is easier to model and obvious discounted cash flows that you can extrapolate from. what you see in the filing as opposed to a company that like an instacart, of course, it's a platform oriented company and it's hard on figure out what the comparables are in the marks and what the future looks like for a company like that. that's pretty nascent in terms of the overall business model. >> leslie, thank you. thanks for that.

leslie picker. i guess what we're learn, mike is when we were thinking okay, arm and instacart and a few of these others, okay, the ipo door may be swinging open. >> and i think it's clear from watching the performance of some of these that not so fast. >> individual stories with their own individual story to tell. some are mature companies and their growth rights will be different and others are not profitable so be careful what you say until you get more of a sample size to judge. >> no doubt about that. >> on the other hand, those same companies have motivated sellers a year ago when the market was down 20% melting down and they didn't try to come out then so this is always the way and an ipo cycle has to get cranked up and you do have sellers that need to get liquidity and maybe more tested ideas and discarded companies, let's be honest and once you get more out there you can generalize more about the reception and the caliber of

start-ups and it is true. there are always -- you know, mature brands that people would be interested to own. it doesn't mean you get the great of the valuation and it doesn't mean the stock will pop on debut, but you can always find a path on to public hands and they no sponsorship of this in the public markets yet. so nobody's confident about the performance of this company, and things don't look great in the next six months. there's not a lot of conviction. >> as we close it up in less than a minute, i go back to the point you made at the outset. it is down 11.5 points and the russell is getting hit today and if you would have said before the day, it will be a new cycle high and the market's largely going to look reasonably okay despite some of what's under the surface. i'm not so sure. >> the s&p is a percent above

last week, maybe a percent and a half above last week's low and it's trying to hang on to the uptrend from the october lows and we'll see if it can, and we'll get the data tomorrow. >> thanks, everybody, for watching. we'll see how tomorrow goes. of course, i'll see you then into overtime, now morgan and jon. [ closing bell ringing ] we've got your scorecard on wall street. s&p about flat and the nasdaq in the green and the dow in the red. winners stay late. i'm jon fortt with morgan brennan. we'll speak with j.p. morgan's top rates expert about another jump in yields to kick off in the fourth quarter. >> bitcoin having a strock start and we'll talk to vaneck etfs about the company's just-launched ethereum fund and former goldman sachs cfo