there in ireland. tesla is a weight on the s&p 500. we are seeing some of the cyclical groups. tesla is down 6% as the debate continues on if it's one of the mag 7. >> it seems like cramer is talking about mag 6 more than mag 7. let's get to the half. the investment committeeing sizing up the big week. we have joe terranova, steve weiss and jim laboren thaul. a lot of data, starting tomorrow

you have powell on the hill on wednesday and thursday. you have a jobs report on friday. you have jolt and ecb with a decision this week. talk to me about it. >> we are in a shoulder month as far as i am concerned as far as information goes, and very little to come. obviously we have broadcom and a few others, and we are at the end of fourth quarter earning season, and we are not near third quarter or announcement -- it's all about the macro because that's been the strong pillar to the economy. not just a labor report on friday, but next week, scott, it's not too early to look ahead to cpi and ppi. what we want to know is whether january's hot inflation numbers were a blip or a reversal of trend, and the fed wants to know that. >> powell will be asked about the inflation, obviously, and the direction ahead.

he will testify on the hill, senate banking and house financial services -- not in that order, of course, on wednesday and thursday. it will be closely watched by the markets. deutsche bank is talk about the run we may never see again in our life times. it's 16 out of 18 weeks. that's the first time since 1964, and it really has -- they use the words remarkable and relentless. it has been both. >> yeah, and i use the word complacent. i am not sure, you know, that it's not worth wild being complacent at this point. what i see out of that, the market has to broaden. i think it has to broaden meaningfully. you are starting to pop up against a valuation top on any of the mega caps, and apple aside, and apple has its own history of troubles as does

google, near term history, and what gets in the way of that are the inflation numbers. powell couldn't be more hawkish than at the last conference. we are still on track to ease, so the market will look through that and look through the second half whether it's may, june or even a later month, and the fed is going to ease. that's going to drive the rest of the market, or at least most of the rest of the market up higher. but the market does need time to pause and time to rest. every market does. i think you could get that occasion this week, but the numbers are too strong. >> makes sense. yes, the market needs to pause and consolidate. what is remarkable about today sitting on the desk and looking at the market, tesla is down 6%, and alphabet down nearly 4%, and apple down 4%, and that

formation of those companies -- the any point when the s&p was down significantly, what do we have today. look at goldman sachs today, up 2%. morgan stanley is up 5%. >> industrials are having a nice day. >> health care is up, and eli lilly -- >> you are painting the picture in which there's enough underneath mega cap, finally, to support the market at a time, where as you said, these prior pillars in some respect of the mega cap growth trade, that's all you needed. now you can afford for those to falter, apparently, because you are getting picked up by all these other areas. >> there's a remarkable rotation going on underneath the market that is really speaking towards the confidence that has been built, the confidence that has been built surrounding what we have witnessed with earnings and also for investor expectations. i think it's defying the logic of what you are citing, because

i thought february would be a down month and i thought we would see the correction, and we have not seen the consolidation, in fact. you have to acknowledge what is going on. when you have such significant weakness from pillars of the market in the last ten years and it does nothing to initiate that type of catalyst, that's remarkable. >> you say it's defying logic. those are the words you just used. i wonder if we are over anything the logic. tony has a note out and it speaks to this. the bullish thesis is clearly defind. u.s. growth running nicely above trend, right, and we know that's true. the fed put is alive and well. we know they are going to cut and it's just a matter of when. and the stock market can tell several distinct stories of immense innovation, it's not just ai, so maybe it's not defying anything.

maybe the logic tells you that the stock market is where it should be and it's going to go higher from here as a result of all of those things. then you want to throw broadening in the mix? >> yeah, that's all true, and good point by tony, as usual. what always hurts markets, though, is what you don't expect. >> of course. but that exists every day if you are an -- >> absolutely. but when you go through what the possible triggers are for a correction, it's difficult to come up with any. is it biden or trump stepping out of the campaign? the war in israel, and -- the only thing that could possibly deter this, given what tony is saying, if inflation numbers balloon up. but that's not going to happen, and that's not going to happen

because china is now trying to be an export economy. that's going to be deflationary. their consumers are unwilling and unable to buy the goods, and that economy is going to continue to atrophy. you will see the cost of goods get imported from them bring down pricing, and you got the stage set. and january was not one month, it was zero months, it was january. so the fed is not worked up over what we saw in january at all, and neither is the market. >> more from the tony note, jimmy, he takes aim at the notion that we are in a late cycle, whichyou have been hearing about a lot of strategists and market participants come on and talk about where they think we are, and he said perhaps these are the middle innings of a major bull market that is under

written generational shifts in technology and medicine. maybe we not so late cycle as people would like to paint the picture of us being, particularly those being more cautious and not negative and miss add good portion of the move? >> it could be. scott, as you know how i was feeling about a year ago, and a lot of people said we were late cycle and i said we are right in the middle of it. as much as i do agree with tony, and i have a little discomfort i am agreeing with steve here, but it's not set it and forget it here. you are hearing more about layoffs. and the note from friday has some legitimacy to it that if these inflation numbers from january continue, you know, the rate cuts might be off the table. i am not changing my thesis right now, which is generally in agreement with mr. pass

chiarelli -- >> pass carell yo. get the italian names right. >> you have to be aware of the risks out there. >> you already know rate cuts are pushed off. frankly for the right reasons. because the economy enabled the fed to -- they don't need to rush. there's no reason for them to rush. on that note, you did get commentary todayfrom bostick, the atlanta president. he said it was a new side risk that i think bears scrutiny in the coming months. it's too early to cut rates now. if they do, then you risk have the exuberance go to another level. and that's the crux of it, right? you have the risk of igniting this over exuberant action in the market for one place and

then you risk inflation going back in the direction the fed doesn't want it to go. >> i think that's a good way to put it, scott. it's as if your conversation really leads into this quite well. he's afraid about what you guys around the table are going to do and the ceos are going to do when the fed cuts rates. he sees two rate cuts this year, and he said we may not do them back-to-back, we may take our time between them. he's concerned about the issue, because pent-up exuberance which could mean a change in the pace of cuts, and he uses the word pounce in terms of investment once the fed cuts rates and this could lead to inflationary pressure. he notes the number of categories in the cpi north of

5%, which is a concern of his. he says premature to declare victory against inflation, he needs to see more progress before cutting. the job market shows fresh signs of strength, and that's from the january report. the risk of keeping interest rates elevated too long is there, and he doesn't sound that worked up about it. he said the healthy labor market and healthy economy let's the economy make policy without much urgency here. this idea of pent-up exuberance, his words, and it's his words, and look at the op-ed in the journal today, he talks about the strong economy and things in ai could mean higher rates going forward. >> the two cuts feels new to me, and noteworthy because he's

putting a number on what some have suggested, well, three is probably more realistic, you know, even the former dallas president, kaplan, he thinks they will not cut early or that much, and three is probably right. two sounds like bostick, who is a voting member, has moved more into the hawkish camp, so to speak? >> yeah, he said that's what he dialed in was two cuts. you are right, though, that three is the median of the committee. we will have to watch to see if others move towards him. it does seem -- what is the right word? cheap just to provide two. there was an idea out there, and i forget which fed person put it forward of the 1995 -- i think it was jefferson, the vice chair, put forward saying this 1995 cutting cycle, which was, like, a few cuts spread out over

six months, and then the fed went on an extended hold. again, miki levy brings up the idea of the investment boom of the '90s being an analog and what does that mean for the capital. you talked to experts about this, which i did a couple weeks ago, and what does ai mean for interest rates? in the near term, it means a lot of investment. a high demand for capital. that should raise the price for capital. the productivity it engenders will allow the rate to come down. >> steve, thank you. guys, i see two things, so the two-year moves up a little bit, and the 10-year maybe a little as well also. maybe you don't get as many. this sounds maybe a little more hawkish. s&p, by the way, that moved up just a little bit, joe. it's like the market says, fine,

we don't care, as long as we know what the next move is, and the next move are cuts. it remains stimulative for stocks, it appears. investors, and steve used the word, you know, the ceos according to bostic they want to pounce. investors are already pouncing because they anticipate this. >> federal reserve is no more adversarial, quite candidly. i would rather see them address the bigger issue in 2024, and that's liquidity as the reverse re-poe program winds down. the market and the economy is telling you, guess what, the federal reserve is not too restrictive right now in their policy. their policy is the right policy for the marketplace.

jimmy, you cited before underlying cracks in the marketplace, and ism manufacturing layoffs, and they have been in decline for the better part of the last year, basically, and layoffs speaks to the cost efficiency and the head count reduction and that's benefiting stocks in the market. >> i don't want to talk us down. i am invested. let's be clear. but i am looking at the horizon and seeing clouds. what i am hearing from the fed, it's like they are going to be late with the cuts and when they do the cuts it's going to be for the wrong reason. i am not trying to shout fire in a crowded theater here, and i am watching what is going on with new york community bank and it's one name. i got that. joe you can push back reasonably on anything i say, and what i am saying is this is to me sounding a lot more like the fed is going to be late to cuts and when they

do cuts it's going to be for the wrong reason. >> i think we have to get used to higher for longer being talked about every week. that's, you know, what was talked about on friday. you mentioned the note that was talked about it, and a lot of others are embracing higher for longer, and it doesn't mean higher than where we are now or even longer, but it means we may stay where we are at for longer. and bank of america raises us in the target to 5,400. many strategists are raising targets because they are chasing, and maybe not getting more bullish, but the market is making them raise their targets. >> to joe's point, credit has actually tightened despite the fact -- >> the spreads are so tight. >> but the direction is going the other way.

the markets are not saying, okay, the next move is down. what they are looking at and saying is if the market did this well before the dialogue even started about cutting rates, can you imagine what it's going to do when they do cut rates? that allows them to look through a lot of the data. i agree with jimmy. the fact that can you point to the isb over the week, and manufacturing has been weak. it's been in a recession for more than a year. do you see that happen as rates stay higher? it could. >> industrials have looked great, so stay away from the pure manufacturers. i don't know. those stocks have done well, too, though. >> and it's also a mistake to rely on s&p classification. unfortunately that's what virtually all asset managers do, and i choose to look bottom up for the stocks having the good fundamentals and not saying i am

overweight this or underweight this, and that's crap to me. >> it's the idea that it's the trough trade. you assume the worst is behind it, and even if it muddles along at current levels, you assume there's only one way to go from here, and you are trying to get ahead of that. >> that's the tax selling trade, right. i always look for those. other things of note i want to get to, another new high for nvidia. it's going to be $900 before you know it, and you know that's going to happen. we are going to turn away and turn back and nvidia will be at 900. amd, a record high. supermicro, a record high. and then apply materials, and why do you want it? you like buying stocks at

high-levels, assuming they can go higher from here? >> here's why. first, why i want to be in the semiconductor capitol equipment space. i believe there are plenty of semiconductor plants being built here in the u.s. and not just in the u.s., and those being built will be supplied by amat. the fundamental picture there tells me that two things may happen. one, the historical multiple may have been rated higher and there's a chance for earnings out surprises as we go forward. a amat is in a very good space with competitors. it's involved in more steps of the semiconductor fabrication process than most of its other competitors. >> let's pull it back and get a broader view of what we are

talking about here as the chip stocks have done unbelievably well. that's what i am looking for. look at that, right? you feel comfortable buying that up there on the right? >> yeah, because i am just starting the position. this is a small position. i know you hate it when i say that, but there's a reason for this. that chart is the reason for it. meaning, if it comes down i already laid out the fundamental case and that i am comfortable with the multiple. >> weiss, does this make sense to you? >> what has asml done? >> it has -- >> let's pull that chart up. let's pull that chart up, too. weiss is buying asml, too, and i want to buy that for the same time period. you can't criticize jimmy at all. >> i didn't -- >> you were trying. believe me, the viewers didn't

have the benefit. it was on a single shot at that moment. i had the perspective of everybody, and when he was talking i was looking at you waiting, and i thought scott bought asml, what is he going to say? >> everybody you know has a buy on amat -- >> is that a rhetorical question for yourself? >> here's my answer. you like my setup? well, amsl, they are under appreciated. >> under appreciated? >> it is, believe it or not because it's under followed on the street. they don't know why they are buying it right now. here's why they are. they have a new machine that is out, and by the way sold out which is extreme ultraviolet. it allows chips to hold more circuits, so for them to be more

robust. they have just started getting out there. it's not really noticed by the street all that much, number one, and number two, that is what is going to arm the companies like microsoft and apple and all the others to make their own ai chips. that's why i like that. these machines costs over $150 million a piece and have a huge backlog go into 2025. you have to see everybody from taiwan semi who is a customer -- every chip manufacturer is a customer because they are the only ones that do it, so that's why i bought it. >> the other move you had surprised me, you bought intel. >> okay. here's why. the perfect setup. they are the first customer of the euv machines, so they got a lot of the capacity of them going back and putting that in the order book, and going back to 2020 and 2021, so for their new fab that has gone up, they will be able to manufacture

these chips for microsoft who already has orders in for it to make, you know, their own ai chips so they are not beholdened to nvidia. nvidia is not going down. they can both exist. when you think of the demand for the chips, you can't overvalue that. earnings are going to grow into it, and nobody on the -- goldman has a sell on intel and others have the sell on intel, and that's the perfect opportunity to buy intel right now. >> center of the universe is the semiconductor industry. every name they mentioned, these are names that will continue to move higher. in the case of applied material, no. not every analyst loves the stock. the 12-month price target is only $2 where it's holding today above. materials is the largest u.s.

supplier. very big story this week is going to be broadcom. hearing from broadcom that has snuck into the top ten in the s&p 500 as a market cap bigger than tesla, and it quadrupled. everything in 2024 begins and ends with what semiconductors do. >> i bought asml when it was on a decline, not a big decline, but still moved up over 5% since i bought it. >> good stuff. let's take a quick break. when we come back, farmer jim has another new move, and we will also talk about health care more broadly. one of the five best performing sectors this year, and jimmy's move was within that. a little teaser. we're back after ts.hi *trade's easy-to-use tools, like dynamic charting and risk-reward analysis, help make trading feel effortless.

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♪ ♪ we're back. farmer jim with another new move. you sold thermal fisher which you owned for several years. why? >> i did it reluctantly, because

i think it's a fabulous company with fabulous management. but earnings and guidance has been disappointing for several quarters, and there's reasons for this. china is in a slowdown. we know that. this is a stock that has a 27 times forward multiple. i have a hard time putting those two things together. it's a stock i may revisit in the future. it has a high debt load from acquisitions they have made and i don't see it going anywhere soon. >> joey? >> we sold thermal fisher last april. obviously recognizing a lot of what you see is the deterioration and the quality of its earnings. health care overall is beginning to resurrect itself. >> yes. it's waking up. >> it's resurrecting itself, and from a perspective of

allocation, you will see a lot of funds that moved away from the health care sector in 2023, and i think there's a lot to get excited about. visa systems is another systems and regeneron. it's associated with a lot of the technology being introduced into health care, and some of the bio tech move being played out in the marketplace, and you can play at a higher market cap valuation. >> i agree with everything you said, and cvs, united health in terms of the health care, and the health care trade is coming back from a terrible year in 2023. what happened in 2023 was the bad concerns in the upcoming election season -- >> lilly has been the standout.

price target raised, up better than 35%. weiss, you had profitable health care. two questions. did you get out of this space too soon? obviously i think it's fair to say you may have chosen the wrong stocks to euxpress your view in this space -- >> i think both of those are fair points. made money on united health care and didn't on humana. i did pick the wrong ones. bio tech to me, i am not sure, the finance costs still high. i had owned the bio tech indices for a while and that's the best way to play it -- >> you mean like xpi? >> that is one way -- there are more than that, and xpi is one

that is more liquid. i don't have the time at this point to go in and do all the work i need to do, and i did miss lilly, and i don't want to chase it. there are other weight loss drugs coming on the market, so sometimes you just miss things. >> you didn't miss it. i got you covered. don't worry. >> you have decent exposure. >> joe, it hit an all-time high last week. >> everybody keeps talking about the mag 7, okay? eli lilly should be part of the mag 7. when you think about glp1 and what it means to the market and economy. why not? eli lilly is more relevant than tesla is relevant. this is company seeing staggering revenue growth. i will acknowledge the comps will get harder as you move into the summer, in particular q2 of

2024 will look tough relative to '23. >> it's a cult stock, and it doesn't deserve the valuation. everything is going wrong for them, and i think it will continue to go wrong. they are just not part of that group of the phag mega cap tech stocks that deserves to be there. let's get the headlines now with pippa stevens. >> jack teixeira signed a plea deal for leaking hundreds of military classified documents in one of the most serious security breaches in year. he accepted a deal today that includes a suggested16 year prison sentence and a 59,000 fine on pleading guilty for all charges. french lawmakers gathered for a

historic vote to make abortion a conse constitutional right today. today's joint session is expected to be largely a formality. no relief for the sierra, nevada, as forecasters are warning more snow is on the way. a system is bringing snow to the region that closed yosemite over the weekend. they have received as much as seven feet of ow.sn >> seven feet? >> yeah. >> unbelievable. thank you. thank you. just ahead o [car trunk slammed shut] for 88 years, morgan stanley has offered clients determination and forward thinking to create the future... crowd: stop it! ...only you can see. american announcer: rose, back in the winner's circle.

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we're back. here's etf edge. >> gary genslor. president biden said climate change is a threat and that it posed a greater risk than nuclear war. the eft community is watching the vote closely because the proposal will provide data on

climate issues that could be incorporated into esg etfs. arnie, this vote is wednesday. what will it require corporate america to do? >> in general it's fair to say that corporate america has varying levels of enthusiasm of the rule change. the more clean data we can receive and the more regulation, the creation of the clean data is good for us. >> what will it require corporate america to do? >> reporting more and being more transparent and coming out with the emissions. >> does the eft community support the idea of more disclosure? how does that help the eft

business? >> if we think about efts, we track indices and the ways indices are being extracted is because of the available data, and anything that fosters good data is supported by the community, and us specifically. some of the funds that you mentioned, it's important for us to haveclean data. >> we are putting up some of the funds you manage here. a few years ago we covered this extensively, the climate story, and that enthusiasm cooled off dramatically. there are outflows from most of the efg funds in the last year, and several shuttered due to investor uncertainty, over how to define what esg is. is esg still relevant? how will it define itself if it is still relevant? >> well, it absolutely continues to be relevant and will be

relevant in the issue. the s&p 500 tracker across the billion mark in terms of asset, and the management really focuses on climate-specific topics. to your point it's being redefined as something more specific. we come from a broad esg social and governance-related investing to honing on climate-specific topics. >> with all the new data that will be generated by the new disclosures, no wonder the esg community will be supportive of this. we will have more on what it means for your portfolio at 1:00 p.m. eastern time. eftedge.cnbc.com. by the way, bitcoin

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welcome back. let's take a look at bitcoin. there it is, over 67,000. we are approaching all-time highs, mr. weiss. another 7% today. >> yeah. >> what is behind this -- >> pure momentum. >> momentum -- well, there are a few things. momentum. cramer came out and said he thinks because everybody is upsidedown, in debt to gdp, and i don't think that's the case.

sure, there's a small element that believes that all economies or all sovereigns are going to hell, so they will hide bitcoin. that's not it. to show you how ridiculous this is, bitcoin is not the top foreign currency, and bite the dog or whatever that -- >> this asset, between the approval of the etfs, and the asset management get into it, and some expected fervor into parts of the market -- >> complete perfect storm. i think you have to look at the two products that investors really focus on. number one, bitcoin, and it has been traditionalized with the advent of the etfs.

bitcoin up 58%. you have ethereum up 50%. you have a lot of people who are going to own ethereum on the belief that an eft is coming. is atethereum riding the back o the bitcoin? there's so much more alpha that could be generated in owning ethereum in relation to bitcoin because there's no eft yet. >> i don't think that. >> could we play that multiple time over the next few years? >> what? >> i don't think that deeply. we need to play that. >> i have to be careful any edge i give you in that regard, and that being one. the sec didn't come out and get in the way. the sec blessed it and the courts blessed it, but it's pure

momentum. let's talk about the market. fleetcor, joe, you own it? >> correct. to be clear, this is a financial sector company. the sentiment towards profitable fintech companies is changing and that's what the company is, profitable at a reasonable valuation. it's a business payment platform. so far year to date coming in to date it was down, and it has relative underperformance but it's getting a lift today on the back of that. >> disney, a new 52-week high? >> the jury is out on what is going on at the company, although even though prospects are improved at this point. 135 is morgan stanley now from 110. they cite realistic optimism. >> the sentiment clearly

changed, scott. six months ago we were talking about how negative everybody was on disney. what has happened? a few things. one, the path to profitability and straeeaming, and to a lot o people that's not that important but to me it's very important. six months from now they say they are going to be profitable and even before that, and that's big in the future. the hulu transaction has to get done and get done soon. youhave is to put that in the rear view mirror and grow the streaming business even more with hulu behind it. sentiment -- believers have come out in bob iger and his ability to monetize espn and the staunch decline and linear declines of subscribers there. the sentiment turned and here we go. >> rollins, it stays at 51. this stock is the bees knees and

is it still a buy? >> the stock has done remarkably well over the last 15 years. they are orkin brand. this is a company that in the industrial sector is a must own. >> a quick break, and then mike santoli with his midday word is on the other side. see that? that's like the gap in my health insurance. gap in your health insurance? yeah, it didn't cover everything when i got hurt. good thing i had aflac. hmmm the cash i got from aflac helped pay for medical expenses, groceries, rent. it really helped close that gap.

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mike santoli, our senior markets commentator is here with his midday word. you say this bull market has entered a new phase. >> yeah. you would call it the belief phase. i think what we've seen is over the last four months we've scaled a very steep, tall wall of worry and now the majority of people kind of like what they see on the other side of it. it's no longer the case. you have this tailwind of skeptical positions and sentiment and you're starting to work off the naysayers quite as much because i do think soft or no landing is the premise. you've had a lot of sell side strategists not just raising their targets, but coming up

with rationales for why 20 times forward earnings and it's plausible and i think that you can separate out the different sectors of the market and figure out whether that makes sense or not. i do think we're in the belief phase and it comes along with a lot of the speculative energy that we see every day in parts of the market. so it's not ringing some loud alarm. it's more saying, you know, if you're bullish you have company now. >> look. pasquariello was mennotioning we're in a bear market. kolanovic was pointing to bitcoin at 60,000 and some complacency, too. >> you see the emerging edge of all of those issues and of 13% above the 200-day average of the s&p 500 and it's a stretch by any definition and what it comes down to is mid-cycle stocks are beating mid and late-cycle stocks and that seems to be the

market saying we're not really bracing for something nasty on the macro and then strength begets strength. whether you like it or not, when you're up this much in the beginning of the deal and the 16 or 18 weeks higher usually, that doesn't happen at the very top. ll i'll see you on "closing be." mike santoli. final trades, we'll do those next. opportunities are everywhere you turn. do you charge forward? freeze in your tracks? or, let curiosity light the way. at t. rowe price, we ask smart questions about opportunities like advances in healthcare and how these innovations will create a healthier world tomorrow. better questions. better outcomes. so this is pickleball? it's basically tennis for babies, but for adults. it should be called wiffle tennis. pickle! yeah, aw! whoo! ♪♪

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ontario. your innovation partner. i hope you'll join me on "closing bell" today at 3:00 eastern time, and the number one retail analyst on the street and jeff mcgraph, he fore saw this rally before a lot of other people did. we'll find out where he thinks we're going from here and i hope you'll join me then. crowdstrike. they report tomorrow and that's a big deal especially after palo alto. are you nervous? >> very big deal. candidly, i bought the stock at 140 that last august, and i wish it was in the quality momentum index because it would make the decision easier. i'd sell some crowdstrike and i would trim a third and not true yet. >> okay. that will be closely watched as i said after palo alto and those stocks are going crazy, too. what's your final trade? >> i would own puts in alphabet if you were long the stock. if you do own the puts i'd keep

them and i still think it goes lower. >> okay. i said last week that was my final trade and i'll see them today and two winners in the race of ai for everyday tools. google and microsoft. it's foolish to sell based on the bad launch. >> down year to date along with apple and watch that, jimmy, quick. >> union pacific, solid industrial. >> thanks, everybody. i'll see all of you on "closing bell" at 3:00 eastern. the exchange is now. all right. thanks very much, scott. welcome to "the exchange." i'm dominic chu in for kelly ev evans. a look at how the company is changing its messaging around artificial intelligence and how you want to be positioned in that stock going forward. also ahead, could warehouses be the next shoe to drop in commercial real estate? we look at the risks and the opportunities in that space ahead, and then the latest read on