him to not vote for iger >> so, they wanted bob iger to be elected but they wanted pelz and jay to be on the board as well >> i see and that's why he withheld >> just to make a point. >> nice to have you here we'll have you here all week thank you, everybody, for watching "power lunch. we appreciate you being with us. "closing bell" starts right now. all right. welcome to "closing bell." i'm scott wapner this make or breakout begins with the resilient markets, which are about to notch their fifth consecutive winning month. are investors ignoring mounting risks or is there good reason to remain bullish on stocks your scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation looks like this no big bets to start this holiday shortened week, one that sees the all important pce report drop on friday morning. and that's even with the markets closed we're pretty much mixed today,

not big wins or losses on either side energy is leading the way, much like it has this week. it's been a mixed day for big tech some other megacaps, digesting regulatory news in the u.s. and abroad boeing is one of the big stories of the day on news dave calhoun will step down at the end of the year takes us to the talk of the take, where best to invest right now, with earnings looming, interest rates sticky, and the feds seemingly urging patience let's ask adam parker. he's founder and ceo of -- research and cnbc contributor. nice to see you. >> always good to see you. >> did we clear a big hurdle next week for the rally, getting through the fed and powell is taken to be pretty dovish? >> i think so. i mean, i think there's three reasons to be bullish. one is the gross margins for the average company have troughed and are going up two is the fed's ultimately

going to be adccommodative, whether it's two, one, three and three, i think you can create earnings for several years in a row, so you can throw into the valuation the bear case, the consumer falls apart more than people think, china is a disaster, or the quantitative points are -- >> so, we're at 5,200. let's call 5225. the chase is on. people are raising their price targets, as the market keeps chugging along here. what seems reasonable to you for a level we could reach >> i think 10% per an m return is a good return >> not here forward but for the pull year? >> i think 12 months forward, get 10% from there over the long-term, equities have gone up 12% per annum overtime i can see people saying, i don't

like the starting valuation, but the margins are going to go up i think that's what drives multiple expansion as we've talked about before, there's not a lot of asset class around the world that give you access to the best 20 u.s. equities and the power they grow i know it's going to work for the next ten years, a.i., life sciences i like 10% higherover a year from now sure >> even if inflation continues to come down, margins are going to continue to go up >> yeah, in fact that helps them in many cases because their input costs and labor costs can come down, and they can get productivity and that might offset price erosion they have depending on the business so, the way we show up for the top 3,000 u.s. equities, it looks to us like margins trough july of '23 for the median company and already coming up a little bit i think that explains part of the reason is equity market is up is margins go up. and it's a bad idea to short stocks where margins are expanding. >> i asked the question whether

we're ignoring these risks, whether the market is too convinced the rates are coming -- boss tick dialing back his own expectation. he sees one. what if it isn't the three that the market's expecting does it matter >> i think -- no, it doesn't matter the reason i say that is it preebl means the economy is good i think we're in this pocket, this crazy world, where good news on the economy will be good for stocks and bad news will be bad. if they only two one or two instead of three, it's because the economy is relatively good shape. what i don't want them to do is the seven a few months ago i think the challenge remains, everyone seems analyzing history. when you analyze history, you're going to put tnt crisis, the financial crisis, covid, and you're averaging in something that is unlikely to be where we are today. i think they're going to be accommodative. i think it's not going to require multiple cuts, and it probably means we go lower first. >> it's not like there aren't any speed bumps potentially in

our way. i want to read you something that goldman pascrell low put out. i cite his stuff a lot quote, if i were told in early january that three of the main seven stocks would trade lower in q1, that registered equity supply would rise to the highest level since late '21, that core inflation -- and in turn the number of implied fed cuts for 2024 would be hafled, would you have guessed the u.s. equities would do nothing but melt higher he's got a good point. does all that give >> sure. the question is does it give from way higher numbers. it's a little bit like we talked about six, nine months ago with nvidia everyone wants to call the top to me, there's a perverse, sort of, arrogance. it's like i missed the first two trillion but i'm going to be -- for the next six months forward. i'm going to nail the top. it's going to fall the 20% i know and everyone else knows it needs to go down this is very unlikely you could

time it that well. i think you need exposure to risk assets, and i think the story is compelling for margin expansion. i hear what he's saying, but i never thought the fed was going to cut that the many times i think this is a healthy reset to expectations. >> at the beginning of the year you were told all the things tony lays out, you would say, i can't imagine we're going to set new record highs for all three of the major averages by the spring >> sure. but i think the earnings are up, earnings expectations for '24 are flat from january. the big companies earnings top 20 expectations are up maybe 7, 8% on net income dollars he knows this. i think there's some counterbalancing i hear what he's saying. generally it's earnings in the fed. i think we still have that in place on 12-month forward. >> it's also why it's more bulls than bears now >> that's the most annoying part >> well, because the bears continue to hinge on these facts that he lays down.

if all these things are true, there's no way that the market's going to continue to go up it's all going to come -- >> i think the flip side would be it's up even despite that that's actually bullish. if you can take all those punches in the mid section and still be standing, then what if -- happens. do you think that's the end? i can see the counterargument too, which is markets have done pretty darn well, been pretty resilient absorbing some of these things now i can look a little bit cleaner slate. >> you've endured a little bit of pain on the energy trade, which you continue to like, and you still do >> i do. >> month to date, it's led it's up 9% is energy and materials, com services, utilities, those are the four best performing sectors month to date. >> yeah. >> and that has fuelled a lot of the conversation that, okay, it's the broadening out trade and that tech is going to take a prolonged rest are those sectors and that performance, is that the exception or the norm moving

ahead? >> i -- look in our portfolio recommendations, we're overweight energy materials. i love oil and copper. and i think it's a nice hedge -- >> so does goldman today by the way. >> the issue is more if you're trying to beat the s&p 500 you've got to own at least a quarter of your portfolio on tech and you can be overweight owning 8% energy. you're always going to own way more trend trends are a.i., software, electrification decarbonization, life sciences. those are the things, demographics, tail winds, things you want to invest on a 10-year view from the portfolio perspective, if i'm long on a.i. and software, this is a nice hedge and there are days i can do okay if you get nvidia and oil up, you're going to form away the opposition i'm recommending positioning but i think they make sense to own them and it's because demand is going to seat supply in the long term. i think the challenge with energy and copper, i have no idea in the six-month view >> you think people try to write

off megacap tech too soon? before i left, the whole conversation was, this trade looks kind of ugly and it may be primed for a long-term breather, which in part would fuel the rotation but there were questions about what the overall market would do, costman over goldman says continued megacap exceptionalism could lift the s&p to 6,000. he says although optimism on a.i. is high, long-term growth expectations and valuations for the largest stocks are still far from bubble territory. >> i don't think they're bubble territory. >> in other words, don't get off the ship yet >> i don't see how, if the market goes down, that you could tell me that you want to own small caps in the down take sustainably. to me, that doesn't make any sense. if you're very bullish on equities, i could see you saying it's going to broaden because the average company will have margin expansion and will go up more and earnings will go up more than the big companies.

but being bearish and calling for a small cap rotation doesn't have a lot of press in it. it only happened with the tnt bubble >> he's not. i'm saying, what i get from investors is the markets rich and these guys will take a breather that part i don't agree with >> it may not work we're going to get earnings coming up too. let's bring in -- of jpmorgan asset management into the conversation nice to see you. do you agree do you differ with adam's -- what i think is fair to say pretty bullish outlook for equity markets >> i think we're still optimistic on stocks for all the reasons adam laid out. the economy still looks like it's on solid footing, labor market still on solid footing. the fed has stuck to their guns. there wasn't a huge pivot this time around when we think about what their messaging was around what kind of cuts we can see this year. and underpinning all that, look, if it was just a rally predicated on the fed and growth, that would be a little bit more suspicious. but adding earnings growth to that is really important because

even if we're seeing the economy slow back to trend, we're seeing decent organization in that the profit story is picking up even if we don't achieve the lofty profit growth that we expect to see this year, even if we get half of that, that's better than what we were seeing last year. and that should bring more participation into the rally >> so, the fed doesn't matter so to speak unless they have to hike again and the chances of that seem to be extraordinarily low at this very minute. knock on wood, he famously said on march 25th at 3:11: 07. >> if you think about inflation. when we worry about sticky inflation, inflation is going to get stuck above 4% on pce inflation, we're getting stuck around 2.5%. so, we've really recalibrated how much the market wants to get to fed's 2% target when the fed all along has said based on their projections we're not going to get to 2% until 2026. i think the market is hasty in wanting to get there and thinking about what the fed

needs to do to get there, whereas the fed has been pretty consistent look at their projections of inflation. we are at their projection for the end of the year in headline inflation we're .2% away when we think about core inflation so, we don't have to see a huge amount of progress, even if we're just staying where we are today to get to those three cuts potentially. >> you think there's yield risk out there if yields remain -- you know, if they back up even a little bit further there was a note out today that maybe suggests 3.45 on the 10-year is a key level to watch, that that could put pressure on equities what do you think? >> it could. but i think the earnings story overall holds together, that will be helpful. i think inflation will be key to that in terms of seeing that disinflation continue to support margins. potentially it's a revenue story if disinflation starts to hurt revenue. what i worry about if there's a negative equity market, in three week's time we start to get earnings and you hear ceos and management sound more bearish on the consumer

i don't think that the rates being at 4.35 or 4.4, which is, again, not really where we think they're necessarily headed, is going to be all that injurious to the market. >> i don't think we're too optimistic about earnings moving forward. in a couple of weeks, that's all we're going to be talking about for a month. >> three quick things. one is i don't believe that anybody could say, oh, 4.35 is a level that hurts equity markets. i've heard every level from 2 to 2.5 to 3 to 3.5. i don't think you can empirically show that. i think that's made up if it workthis is time, the person will say they're right. it's like me saying i bought amazon for kindle. i think if it backs up, it's bullish for equities >> even if the 10-year backs up. >> it should back up if the economy is strong. >> how much do you want it to back up? isn't it already backed up >> 4.35 doesn't seem crazy to me does it seem awful to you? >> 4.35 doesn't seem crazy from

4.25 it's already an elevated level though >> if it were 5 i wouldn't panic either if the economy was pretty good i love the word -- that's a long word but i think it makes sense. a lot of the earnings cycles are not going the same time. we're used to economic cycles, auto housing, industrial all being at the same time i think because of covid things are cycling at different times i'm not that bearish on earnings i don't think the final estimates will be achieved they're always too high and there may be too much pressure on industrials i don't think that it matters as long as i think earnings are growing. so, to me, that deseagerization thing is interesting because in the past autos were slowing and housing and everything at the same time. now housing is like we're not getting synchronous contraction, may be afraid of an earnings collapse >> as long as earnings are growing -- that's what you said -- >> yep, yep. >> -- as long as the fed has

stopped hiking -- >> if they hike -- >> obviously it's bad. i'm suggesting that -- so, earnings don't have to be gang busters as long as they're growing. we're going the opposite direction of these three or four consecutive quarter of negative earnings growth, which obviously was a problem. now we've troughed and we're starting to move higher. that's good enough >> the bar was set pretty low last year for the majority of the stock market as we start to see some acceleration in those earnings, that's going to help more participation. it's not a mean reversion story to us in terms of the market broadening out or it's not the -- has to stop pulling back. it's more results of earnings in those stocks last year were not great. and as they start to improve a little bit, that's going the help them participate. and the mag 7, when you think about the earnings growth there, if we look quarter by quarter, you're seeing decelebration in the growth rate. the growth rates are still strong i don't think it has to be a rotation as opposed to more participation. you're seeing more dispersion

within the mag 7 you have the best, up double digits, the worst down double digits and that was not something we saw last year. it's not something we saw in 2022 when most of them were down so, seeing some of that makes a case where being active even within a small cohort of stocks. >> i'm trying to remember -- i know i'm going to paraphrase but when david tepper famously came on when the fed was injecting all this liquidity and cutting down after the crisis, well, what's going to go up? everything's going to go up. you're just in a different regime as it relates to the fed. could we be in another period like that, where if we know that the fed is about to embark on a regime of rate cuts, do you need to be that selective within the st stock market itself? >> we spent a lot of time on that topic in a quantitative way, more time than i spent thinking about the markets going up or down >> okay. >> and there's four or fivesome what nerdy things we look at, how much idiosyncratic risk is

there. the stocks that matter or not. are the stocks correlated or not? you know, is valuation dispersion-wise, some at 10, or all at 20? there are things you can do. our work shows us that stock selection parameters pretty good right now and your winners from losers should be pretty good i'll see names that i don't see anything the whole database that looks like this. >> really? can you give me an example >> you know, therapeutics. find me one company that grows faster, has higher margins, and is cheaper that united therapeutics there are none stocks that have lower margins, grow more slowly, and are more expensive than say target. there are basically none, very few. i'm seeing some opportunities for long/short that make me excited. i think if we get some massive fiscal stimulus like on top of the accommodation, the lower quality the better i don't think that's a regime we're in now >> i'm not talking about massive fiscal stimulus. i'm talking about don't fight

the fed works both ways. >> i don't want to fight the fed. if gross margins go up, you want to fight equities, go ahead. >> what's your favorite part of the equity market right now if you have one >> we have higher quality large cap stocks when you're seeing this differentiation among stocks, you still want quality you still want the stocks that can stand out. that has been something that has paid off over the last several months, in terms of areas that has done well. a lot of the areas people are like, it's about to turn around, things like small cap, tend to lag behind i think we want to stick to what has been tried and true and is producing results. >> the only new ones i put on there is i think quality works in the growth universe in value you want to buy something that looks a little -- now that you think is going to be quality later you own two-thirds of high quality growth and one-third you hope it improves and somebody calls it quality later type of portfolio. >> it's good to be back, and it's great to be with both of you. >> great to see you. >> we'll see you soon.

good to have you both here post nine we are keeping our eye on shares of boeing today too. that stock is ticking higher today amid a big management shakeup. phil lebeau joins us now with those details. >> reporter:lots of discussion about the fact you have dave calhoun leaving at the end of this year as ceo who is stephanie pope? she was the coo at boeing. now she has been elevated to the position of ceo of boeing commercial airplanes that's important because her job now is fixing the 737 max. all of the issues surrounding it boeing meeting with the faa this week, as they revise their max protocols. and what do they need to do? dave calhoun says it all comes down to slowing things down and getting them right >> when you move it down the line, it sends a message to your own people that, wow, i guess the movement of the airplane is more important than the first time quality of the product.

and we have got to get that in way more balance without a doubt. >> you've been on the board since 2010, 2011, this is not a new criticism of boeing. this has been out there for years that you guys are about pump the product, pump the product, pump the product, and not enough about quality control. how do you change that >> you slow things down. you catch up >> that's dave calhoun this morning. who will replace dave calhoun when the new ceo is named? that's up to steve mollen cop and the new board of directors one other note, scott. boeing and spirit eaerosystems, they are moving closer to getting a deal done. scott, back to you >> appreciate that, phil lebeau. thank you very much. we're just getting started on "closing bell. up next, reddit surging, popping about 20% today, following its big market debut this week what might this signal about the health of the ipo market

we'll discuss that with lo toney. we are live from the new york stock exchange and you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc. you know what's brilliant? boring. think about it. boring is the unsung catalyst for bold. what straps bold to a rocket and hurtles it into space? boring does. boring makes vacations happen, early retirements possible, and startups start up. because it's smart, dependable, and steady. all words you want from your bank. for nearly 160 years, pnc bank has been brilliantly boring so you can be happily fulfilled... which is pretty un-boring if you think about it.

power e*trade's award-winning trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. e*trade from morgan stanley power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans help you find new trading opportunities, while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market. e*trade from morgan stanley your shipping manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

here's why you should switch fo to duckduckgo on all your devie duckduckgo comes with a built-n engine like google, but it's pi and doesn't spy on your searchs and duckduckgo lets you browse like chrome, but it blocks cooi and creepy ads that follow youa from google and other companie. and there's no catch. it's fre. we make money from ads, but they don't follow you aroud join the millions of people taking back their privacy by downloading duckduckgo on all your devices today. business. jo it's not a nine-to-fivee taking proposition.rivacy it's all day and into the night. it's all the things that keep this world turning. the go-tos that keep us going. the places we cheer. and check in.

they all choose the advanced network solutions and round the clock partnership from comcast business. see why comcast business powers more small businesses than anyone else. get started for $49.99 a month plus ask how to get up to an $800 prepaid card. don't wait- call today. welcome back we're watching reddit shares, surging nearly 20% joining me now, red dit shareholder. no wonder you have a big smile on your face this was debut was good. >> this was good for reddit and the tech industry and future ipos >> i was going to ask you about that, whether this was just an idiosyncratic case of a company that's been waiting to go public for a while and there's enough demand out there for it, or if it does mean blue skies are

ahead for the tech ipo market? >> it's something that had been in the works for so long, and reddit has had a really long road to the public market. it's here now. i think everyone's superexcited. i do want to follow up on your question i think this is the question everyone is asking does a successful reddit ipo mean that the entire ipo window is open? and i think it remains to be seen but one thing we do know with certainty is that there was a lot of investor appetite during the road show for reddit and we see that it's continuing to hold up well. so, clearly the market is signaling there is an appetite for more companies to come to the public markets but, you know, there's some did dynamics that may make that happen, that may not make that happen i think we need to see a few more names enter the public market some of these companies, they've raised a lot of money. they may not necessarily have that financial need.

and at the same time, there are instances where the lastprivat market financing may be higher than what the publicmarket wil accept as a public company valuation. >> let me ask you about reddit, a couple more things volatility in the name, as i think about it, do you think it has the risk of what we witnessed during some of the meme stock mania you may have some of the same types investors in this name that could heighten volatility do you think about that at all is that way off base to even think about the kinds of trading in this, which existed then? >> i don't think it's off base, scott, and i don't think so because if we really think back to gamestop, you know, reddit is the place where a lot of the activity happened to be able to make those stocks very volatile. so, i don't put it outside of what could happen. i mean, that's obviously a risk. and i would even say, you know,

the sentiment was a little bit mixed in some of the forums. people -- some of the people in the forums were really excited i think some of the people in the forums were maybe a little bit negative and more multiple reasons. one reason is because, you know, look, let's be real. when we think about how reddit makes money, it's monetizing the content of others. and you know, i think there may be a little bit of negative sentiment around that. but overall, everything looks good you probably would have seen more of that negative backlash if we were going to see it, we probably would have started to see it by now. but you never know you never know how these forums are going to play out. >> you're obviously locked up from doing anything in the stock. do you feel as though you're a long-term shoulder here? >> well, at plexo capital, our focus is investing into the best companies and best private capital funds in private markets. we're holding only because we're

locked up and we're not trying to make a play on public markets as to where the stock price might go that's not what we play. >> okay. let's talk big tech. most specifically the regulations. you have doj versus apple. you have the eu, you know, probing three companies today, apple, google, and meta. on the apple thing first, i'm wondering how you view that. and through the prism of most things that i read over the weekend immediately went back to microsoft. and if -- i feel like any time that we discuss any sort of probing of these big tech companies, we always come to the same end point, which is, aah, they'll just pay a fine. and it's not that big of a deal. it's not material to the business that's why the stocks don't react all that much. but then when you get to the heart of the matters, as some have raised in the articles that i've read, especially with apple and the doj, it's the great distraction that this activity

causes and that's the biggest issue of all, not necessarily the outcome. how do you view that >> i think that is the right insight to have. when people think back to the microsoft case, i think one of the things that people should think back to was a comment that bill gates made. and if we remember, you know, and even think about how these cases typically play out, often they're looking backwards. and the place that the microsoft case was looking backwards to was how it got to the point where it dominated the operating system so, that's what the case was focused on and what bill gates said, you know, at that point, it caused such a distraction that, in his mind, in bill gates' mind, it helped contribute to him not being able to focus on the opportunities that were on the horizon looking forward, specifically around mobile, around music and digital format.

and those were areas that we know microsoft missed. now, microsoft obviously has come back. but i think if we were to really look at what bill gates regrets, i think he regrets not being able to focus looking ahead as he had to focus on this case that was really looking backwards. >> and as you say that, i'm thinking about, you know, so, he has suggested that they missed out on these transformative trends that were taking place within the technology universe and now obviously we're talking about a.i. and though we expect apple to come to the plate with something substantial probably this summer, they won't be first mover. they won't be first conversation grabber. so, i'm not going to sit here and suggest they're behind because they're a different kind of company with different kinds of products than, say, an alphabet or a microsoft. but it speaks to exactly what gates himself was speaking about. burgeoning new trends and being distracted by something else at a most critical time

>> that's exactly right. and i don't discount apple's ability to be able to make something transformative you know, this is kind of apple's playbook you know, they're not necessarily always first or at the forefront. they talk a very measured approach but nonetheless, yes, i mean, even though we'll see that apple will have a complete staff of internal employees, some external folks mainly from law firms, it won't completely insulate senior leadership from being a little bit distracted by this at a very important point in time when they do need to be looking ahead to how they're going to integrate a.i. into the next generation of phones that will come out, you know, next year or so >> lo, i appreciate the insight as always. talk to you soon >> up next, banking on a new rally. we'll speak with a top strategist about how she is trading the months ahead

"closing bell" is coming right back rylee! from rylee's realty! hi! this listing sounds incredible. let's check it out. says here it gets plenty of light. and this must be the ocean view? of aruba? huh. this listing is misleading. well, when at&t says we give businesses get our best deal, on the iphone 15 pro made with titanium. we mean it. amazing. all my agents want it. says here...“inviting pool”. come on over! too inviting. only at&t gives businesses our best deals on any iphone. get iphone 15 pro on us. (♪♪) i am here because they revolutionized immunotherapy. get iphone 15 pro on us. i am here because they saw how cancer adapts to different oxygen levels and starved it. i am here because they switched off egfr gene mutation and stopped the growth of tumor cells. there's a place that's making one advanced cancer discovery after another for 75 years. i am here... i am here.... because of dana-farber. what we do here changes lives everywhere.

i am here. as an independent financial advisor, i stand by these promises. as a fiduciary, i promise to be the financial steward that you and your family need. i promise to put your long-term financial well-being above any short term transaction. everyone has a big picture. my job is to help you invest in yours. [announcer] charles schwab is proud to support the independent financial advisors who are passionately dedicated to helping people achieve their financial goals. visit findyourindependentadvisor.com

your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire ontario has all the partners you need to make the electric vehicle of the future. with one of north america's largest i.t. clusters. 65,000 stem graduates per year. and all the critical minerals to make electric vehicle batteries. ontario. your innovation partner.

we are back, stocks taking a breather from last week's record highs to start the shortened trading week my next guest says, while investors should expect more volatility in the coming months, a renewed rally is in the cards for the second half. nice to see you.

welcome to "closing bell." >> thanks very much. great to be with you >> what fuels this rally in the second half? >> i think it's a couple of factors. this is a very, very strong environment. so, we're looking at the continued economic expansion we are expecting a slowdown in growth, but it doesn't look like there's any indicator of recession around the corner. when you combine that with rate cuts, historically there haven't had been many instances of this, but when you have periods of solid economic growth and rate cuts, rarely do you get such a strong environment for risk assets we do think the second half of the year is particularly strong. >> how aligned are we on the fed? the markets had this incredible ability to go from pricing in six cuts to now pricing in three cuts some of the speak we've gotten today is casting doubt on whether we'll even get to three. how much of it matters >> it does matter a bit, right i think for the broader market, the broader market -- as long as

there is strong growth that has got to be key because earnings has to be there when you look at pockets of the markets, the bits that didn't do so well last year, they are very much dependent on the fed cutting rates. i'm thinking about small cap value, some of the more cyclical values for those areas, that is very much dependent on the fed really delivering those rate cuts we have to remember as well there's a kind of different shade of how the market can perform in a very, very strong environment where you don't get rate cuts. that's fine. but if it's seeing there's an inflation resurgence, that would be particularly negative state of affairs that's not what we're hoping for. >> expand a little bit further on what you said you're positive on small caps? >> we are. so, we know small cap, they haven't had the best performance so far they have been up by the large cap still. but typically when you are seeing strong growth environment

and then you have rate cuts to talk about, those small cuts which are also showing really attractive valuations relative to the large cap space, they can perform well we do see volatility in the near term they need to have the rate cuts becoming very visible and the markets very -- but once there is clear certainty, we do think b there should be the green light for small caps to start to outperform but i want to say, look, this doesn't mean that large caps are not going to perform well. we still have particularly positive perspective on those large caps it's just that we think the small caps can join into that rally. >> what i find interesting too from the notes i'm reading is your position remains overweight in equities and fixed income funded by underweight in cash. this idea of moving cash out of money markets, as that trade maybe gets a little long in the tooth if we think that rates are going to come down and that now's the time to play both fixed income and equities. >> yeah. absolutely this is really important for

investors out there to start thinking about money market funds not all of it is going to come out into risk assets investors have been sitting on that cash the last few years because they haven't been sure what the economic environment is going to bring to them in 2024, you're probably going to see a lot of those questions being answered economic expansion continuing plus federate cuts so, we do think that's going to be the time where you start to see this push away from money market funds into risk assets. that is down to risk assets such as equities but also within the fixed income space, investment grade, and higher credit >> some of the other developed markets around the world have gone virtually sideways. they certainly haven't performed to the degree that the u.s. stock market has is there a catchup trade to be had, or does it just underscore stay with the u.s. because it's undoubtedly the best >> so, we are expecting the u.s.

to be the main outperformer for this year. it does look like it still has the strongest growth it may not have the most -- central bank, but we should see the rate cuts pushing along as well of course it has the tech sector for many reasons, it started particularly strong. but there are pockets around the globe. if you think about latin america, where the equities are extremely attractive in value, probably the cheapest they've been in the history that we look back since the early 1990s, you will talk about the you have the fundamentals with the central banks, cutting rates, strong growth profile and on top of that, they're keyed in to some of the secular drivers around reshoring there are a number of other markets out there, but the one we're looking at the most is of course the u.s >> we'll leave it there. up next, we are tracking the biggest movers as we head into the close. kristine na partsinevelos is

standing by. >> we have two assets back in flavor today what's driving bitcoin and super micro hire that's next. when it comes to investing, we live in uncertain times. some assets can evaporate at the click of a button. others can deflate with a single policy change. savvy investors know that gold has stood the test of time as a reliable real asset. so how do you invest in gold? sandstorm gold royalties is a publicly traded company offering a diversified portfolio of mining royalties in one simple investment.

learn more about a brighter way to invest in gold at sandstormgold.com. new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. visit indeed.com/hire and get started today. ♪ ♪ whose resumes on indeed mat this is not justria. another e-class. because it evolves with you. it adapts to you. engineering. it is the first e-class made just for you.

for you. for you. this is not just design because your e-class... it adapts to you. it recognizes you. understands you. empowers you. energizes you. feels you. it evolves with you. the new e-class. ♪ ♪

we're about 15 from the closing bell let's get back to kristina partsinevelos. >> i want to start with bitcoin because it's hitting fresh highs of over $70,000 has march comes

to a close that has sent stocks like coin base, marathon digital, microstrategies soaring higher today. you can see a sea of green microstrategy up 21%, coin base up 8.5 and it's been quite the month for crypto, bitcoin hit an all time high march 14th before dropping dramatically last week. big roller coaster who knows how long this pendulum will keep swinging for now, crypto related stocks, as you can see, are enjoying the upswing. high flying tech name super microcomputers also on the outside today after jpmorgan initiated coverage of the stock. analysts say the company which specializes in storage and server solution, still has a lot more room to grow thanks to the a.i. boom and a stock that's over $1,000. shares up almost 9%. >> all right we'll see you in a few minutes in the market zone still ahead, disney shares are popping. we're going to drill down on what is sending that name higher and the latest drama in the

company's big activist battle too. that is coming up. "closing bell" coming right back at pgim, finding opportunity in fixed income today, helps secure tomorrow. our time-tested fixed income suite, backed by over 145 years of risk experience, helps investors meet their goals. pgim investments. shaping tomorrow today.

the future is not just going to happen. you have to make it. and if you want a successful business, all it takes is an idea, and now becomes the future where you grew a dream into a reality. the all new godaddy airo. put your business online in minutes with the power of ai.

up next, shares of intel

slipping amid some big changes in china that could impact chip stocks in a major way. we're going to tell you what's ta a how the rest of the chip makers are reacting today that and much more inside the market zone next ion. get an expanding library filled with new online videos, webcasts, articles, courses, and more - all crafted just for traders. and with guided learning paths stacked with content curated to fit your unique goals, you can spend less time searching and more time learning. trade brilliantly with schwab.

when i was your age, we never had anything like this. what? wifi? wifi that works all over the house, even the basement. the basement. so i can finally throw that party... and invite shannon barnes. dream do come true. xfinity gives you reliable wifi with wall-to-wall coverage on all your devices, even when everyone is online. maybe we'll even get married one day. i wonder what i will be doing? probably still living here with mom and dad. fast reliable speeds right where you need them. that's wall-to-wall wifi on the xfinity 10g network. here's why you should switch fo to duckduckgo on all your devie duckduckgo comes with a built-n engine like google, but it's pi and doesn't spy on your searchs

and duckduckgo lets you browse like chrome, but it blocks cooi and creepy ads that follow youa from google and other companie. and there's no catch. it's fre. we make money from ads, but they don't follow you aroud join the millions of people taking back their privacy by downloading duckduckgo on all your devices today. to build the electric vehicle of the future, you need partners. mining partners. technology partners. education. supply chain. energy. what if one partner could do it all? that partner is ontario, canada. with all the critical minerals to make electric vehicle batteries. 65,000 stem graduates per year. one of north america's largest i.t. clusters. a fully integrated supply chain. all powered by one of the cleanest grids in north america. ontario. your innovation partner. ( ♪♪ ) so this is pickleball? it's basically tennis for babies, but for adults. it should be called wiffle tennis. pickle! yeah, aw! whoo!

♪♪ these guys are intense. we got nothing to worry about. with e*trade from morgan stanley, we're ready for whatever gets served up. dude, you gotta work on your trash talk. i'd rather work on saving for retirement. or college, since you like to get schooled. that's a pretty good burn, right? got him. good game. thanks for coming to our clinic, first one's free. ♪ we're downto "closing bell "market zone." mike santoli here to break down the crucial moments of the day, plus julia boorstin on disney.

mike, i begin with you it's an odd wooek we're beginning. yes, it's the last of the month. markets closed for good friday >> it doesn't seem like there's a ton in terms of the known macrocatalyst. that being the case, it's really about how much we're up over various time spans and whether that tells us that we envelope further upside to go in other words, does strength beget strength or is it payback time everything you look at, how many times we go 100 days without a 2% pullback, how many times up five straight months, how many times up 10% or so in the first quarter. all these things, you line them up, and they say something similar, which is you probably shouldn't be surprised if you have a little chop in the short-term and maybe have a random pullback. but almost overwhelmly, 85, 90% of the time, you're up at the end of the calendar year >> every time it's felt like payback time, it hasn't materialized more than a little bit. >> exactly the market itself is telling

you, this is not how it behaves at an ultimate, decisive, damaging time. that being said, i still have a feeling that you'd be really lucky not to get something a little bit more scary or a little bit more that gives you pause in terms of how the market reacts to whatever happens with macro. i can even see a random air pocket, people say, oh, people are paying their taxes you get these seasonal wobbles the question is, does it turn into something more or is it just grinding higher on the slow escalator. >> earnings season around the corner >> 20 new highs year to date that's a crazy pace for the first quarter. >> i think disney is at a new high, new 52-week high >> disney up nearly 3% today the firm raising its price target to $135, laying out its bull case with three main points the streaming business could break even sooner than expected. they see revenue synergies from international networks and they say the india business

will become a tail wind overtime and third, the theme parks, which are seeing normalizing operations, management guidance indicates accelerating strength in the parks despite tough comps. meanwhile, nelson pelts is withholding votes for ceo bob iger's re-election to the board, which is in contradiction to the company's proxy recommendations and also in contradiction to pelts's comments about wanting to work with iger as well as disney's management. that proxy battle coulminates in the shareholder meeting next week >> watching chips in china today. what do we need to know? >> china is blocking the use of chips in government computers, bringing to light a december 2023 chinese government document that lists a bunch of cpus suitable for use by locals, md and intel didn't make that list. beijing also aims to phase out microsoft's windows operating

system in favor of local chinese options. for example, huawei. even if these local options are a little bit less advanced than american options for now intel and amd told me they wouldn't comment bl you can see the impact on intel shares right now, negative compared to amd. that's because intel is considered to have a larger exposure to china. bernstein estimating intel could lose over a billion dollars in sales if this works and goes through. one beneficiary armed some of the local approved chip shops, used chip processors powered by arm cores. arm also has a large presence in china. the beijing crackdown could be spreading. the ft reporting that state owned enterprises are next and will have to phase out american chips by 2027. i'd leek our audience to remember that china tried to block u.s. equipment back in 2019 and failed to do so this isn't necessarily the end all just yet >> christina, thank you.

back to mike santoli since we're talking about the chips. i keep looking at the chips to see if we're going to see significant signs of something that's been up a lot rolling over nvidia teased you a little bit that maybe that was coming and then not so fast because it had a rebound like everything else did. >> it's held it's held near the highs there hasn't been much of a refresh in term of a real correction what is interesting, though, is how concentrated the strength in chips has been this year the xxd, that's the equal-weight etf is flat year to date it's up the same as the utility sector is. even though the market's broadened out, even though you have old economy stuff working, it's about the winners versus everything else. basic materials, i think it's up ten weeks in a row it's a crazy number of weeks that materials is up you see these little sleeves of the market getting potentially overheated, like construction

materials and some chemicals of all things and it's great if that means global growth is picking up. and all of a sudden, we have this tail wind in terms of the economy. if it's reflationary, then maybe we get a lot of pause. the bond market doesn't really treat it as alarming just yet. >> see what this month's trade becomes, whether it's the exception or the rule for a couple of months ahead big energy, you mentioned materials performing well, tech's, like, number six >> sure. >> so, let's see what happens from here and determine whether really a new trend has started >> apple is so big within s&p tech that that's apple that's doing it but, yeah, you're absolutely right. it could just be the, sort of, interval of -- reversion and we stretched it pretty hard in terms of the growth portrayed. the overall s&p, 15% above the 200-day average. usually that means stuff ought to slow down a little bit or something's going to come along to destabilize it.

but not yet. it's kind of low volume, cruising to the end of the quarter for the moment >> the markets are closing, as we ring the bells today. i'll see you on the other side it is now into ot. [ bell tolling ] ♪ well, the record market rally taking a breather as we kick off the last week of first quarter. that is the scorecard on wall street but winners stay late. welcome to "closing bell: overtime." industrials, which have been a big driver of the market lately are the biggest drag while energy is the best performer boeing, one of the bright spots after dave calhoun announced he's going to step down at the end of the y