Skip to main content

tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  April 9, 2024 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT

12:00 pm
around supply and how that's affecting the trajectory. >> steve liesman said these numbers have to hit exactly where expectations are or the fed will have almost a forced hand. we'll see what happens when we get them. let's get to the judge and "the half." carl, thanks so much. welcome to "the halftime report." i'm scott wapner. front and center this hour, the great wait almost over. tomorrow morning's cpi report looming large especially large, the investment committee debating the road ahead. joining me for the hour josh brown, joe terranova, steph any link, brian belski and rob sechan. let's check the markets. we are lower across the board. yields are lower, too, as we have this great wait almost over. basely very cool is good. in line is good.
12:01 pm
anything other than that and all bets are off. >> i never like that. i'm going to be looking at rent equivalents to see how the figures come in. you have to ask yourself where are we on sentiment? where are we on positioning? i do believe in the last week and a half we've worked off some of the overbought conditions. i think we've added a little bit of an element of bearishness into the marketplace on the belief that maybe the federal reserve is not going to react as quickly as they can. scott, as long as nvidia and the a.i. halo continues to trade the way it has since the nvidia woodstock event, keep in mind that monday on march 25th, if we have a chart to show this, that was the high. we came in off of woodstock. we had all that great news. it's been nvidia and the entire a.i. halo from cadence design to amd to broadcom that have
12:02 pm
trended lower. and if that continues, if cpi comes in investors' way tomorrow, if that continues, it's not going to matter. we have to see that little consolidation correction period for these stocks recover and rebound. that matters most. >> no room, steph, for a hot cpi and how yields have backed up? the recent trend has been a little bit of a backup. we're dealing with what seemed to be a little more hawkish tilt on the fed. what's at stake? >> i think consensus is one to two cuts between now and the end of the year. a hot number tomorrow, you're talking zero cuts and maybe even introducing a hike. depending on how hot it is. i think, though, the headline is going to be hot because of energy and commodity prices. so that i'm bracing for a hotter number. i think the core will be okay.
12:03 pm
joe mentioned new tenant rents. i think we'll see a 3.6, 3.7 number. we're down from 9% headline inflation. we are making progress, just not fast enough. >> are we buy nar for the market if it's too hot? does that mean this rally is in jeopardy? >> i think you could. we have earnings that come out, and i think earnings are going to be better than expected. why is inflation hot? the growth in the economy is stronger than expected. we're running a 2.5% gdp first quarter. that's leading to above trend growth and inflation but it does bode well for earnings. i'm in the 8% to 10% camp.
12:04 pm
>> what's on the line tomorrow morning for this record-setting rally? >> i like the way that jpmorgan is going about very hot or very cold. kind of hot could spook people. i don't think a 1% or 2% is enough to call that. we've watched out the overbought stat. this market is up a lot. the easy money has been made. that's why we've turned cautious. longer term we remained super bullish. we want to buy stocks at more of an attractive price and will get one. >> you think the market is too far too fast now? >> i do. >> what do you think? >> to us, it's all about growth revisions. growth revisions have been significantly higher.
12:05 pm
that has lent support to this market. if that rolls over, it could change. if it doesn't roll over, i think any dip that's caused by a hot number tomorrow is going to be bought. >> why do you think that? >> there's an enormous amount of money on the sideline. >> you think there still is? >> i do. >> there absolutely is. 6.1 trillion, to be exact. >> by the way, animal spirits are picking up. you can feel it in every conversation with clients that comes with a little bit of danger, obviously, that were buying at multiples really, really high. but valuation because of the strength of the economy has almost been thrown out the window, at least here in the near term looking at cyclical sector after cyclical sector trading at very high multiples, two decade high multiples, right? and yet the market is not paying attention to that.
12:06 pm
>> now you have earnings season, though. the rubber has to meet the road. you have multiple expansion. now you'd better have earnings to justify the way multiples have expanded not to mention the fact that higher rates are an impediment to expanding multiples in and of itself. >> you make a really good point. if you look at the mag seven, and i'm including tesla, i'm including apple, 37% earnings growth year on year. you strip those out of the market, negative three for the rest of the stocks. those companies have done well, not just because of a.i. enthusiasm, they've done well because they've delivered from a fundamental standpoint. not all of them, again. >> those sectors are cheap. >> they are cheap. the xle is at seven times forward estimates, only 5% of the s&p. nobody owns it. everyone is chasing it now. >> we are. >> i know --
12:07 pm
>> we're ucky. >> as am i. a lot of people don't own it. growth managers don't. financials, you can get great banks for 1.1 times book value. the best bank in the world at 1.9 times, jpmorgan. >> what happens to the market? the market is market cap weighted. it's market cap weighted with these names that sit at the top that are fundamentally well underpinned. again, expensive as expense ef gets, but fundamentally well underpinned. >> josh, what's on the line tomorrow? how are you gaming this out for yourself and your view of the market? >> i actually would root for a panic and will buy it because if you look at the root cause of inflation, it is exactly what stephanie described and rob described. it's coming from a place of economic strength. it's coming from a place of a fundamental situation where people are making more money than ever not only doing their
12:08 pm
job but also when they pop open their fidelity brokerage account or they look at their 401(k) state or see what homes are selling for regardless of prevailing mortgage rates. it is a fundamentally incredible time to be living, working and investing in the united states of america. so if they want to drop the dow 1,000 points because of a hotter than expect ed inflation, i'm a buyer. i don't need to know the dow rally. that's where i've been. let's all remember the average 10 year treasury yield is 4.8%. that's not my opinion. that's data. that's the average. half the time it's higher. i don't understand why the
12:09 pm
10-year yield is a warning trigger for risk assets. it never has before. did we invent a new rule to the game? >> only because of where expectations were in regards to fed policy. you can look at the historical average. when sentiment was driven in part by expectations of rate cuts, if you're resetting that and moving the goal post like we seem to be from a more hawkish leaning fed of late, not necessarily the chairman -- >> i didn't judge -- judge, i didn't hear anyone on the committee say anything to justify the investments they're currently making. not one of us. >> bank of america, in terms of who is buying dips, where we view the current situation, outflows continue according to -- again, we're talking about insti institutionals, buyers and sellers. they're selling tech and health care. when the s&p -- this is last week when the s&p is down 1% and
12:10 pm
clients were net sellers. there is, brian, some degree of newly introduced nervousness into the market. >> per the people sitting on cash who missed this move versus the animal spirits, they have scared those people sitting on the market. tesla is number ten. it's berkshire hathaway is number seven. in terms of what's happening in the markets, we're seeing the same time of trade this year versus last year. the major difference, the worst in 2022 were tech and had this fundamental tail wind. i'm not sure that the eight of ten best performing stocks have
12:11 pm
a great fundamental tail wind. >> it is a big day for several of them. dee, we'll start with you with this alphabet news. google is on both sides of this gena. i. race. it needs to provide compute power. so a.i. resources of which high-end chips are critical has to be rationed in some way or another or google needs to bring in silicon. so that's exactly what google and its mega cap rivals, by the way, are all doing. acxio is the newest, capable of
12:12 pm
tasks from a.i.-related work. the custom chips, it's been at this for some time, it's been mixed. gen a.i. darlings like anthropic used tpus, another custom silicon. google doesn't provide that full hardware/software stack nvidia, for example, has built and which has helped it retain its dominance. one chart i do want to leave you with, building the right a.i. infrastructure is not cheap. this is how alphabet's capex increased over the last few years as it upgrades cloud infrastructure for gen a.i. and part of that is building the custom in-house chips. >> perfect setup for us. dee, appreciate that. we'll get to kate rooney in a moment. let's trade this. do you know what the best performing is, joet? >> alphabet. >> alphabet. and by a mile. >> alphabet. >> 16% over the last month. >> look, i began the show talking about the a.i.
12:13 pm
underperformance from nvidia and other names, but what has been remarkable, and i think it speaks to the resiliency and the need to look past a 20 basis point rise or a rise in crude oil and the strength of earnings, it speaks to the resilience where you have the ability when one area of mega companies underperforms, hear comes alphabet, meta leading the charge higher. i fail to believe we are at an inflection point in a market when even if it is nvidia and the semis that will struggle, you have the other names making new highs. that has never been -- that has never been indicative of an environment you have a dramatic inflection point and markets roll over. >> josh, the stock price action doesn't match what the narrative has turned into.
12:14 pm
expect re-acceleration. this is a significant day for perhaps what alphabet hopes to do in the near future. >> a really great point you make, judge, the narrative and the stock price do not agree. i would say, number one, how do we feel about narratives when we're investing. rather than here is my narrative, the share price better agree with me or else. >> let me give you a narrative, if you'd like it. it's a great narrative. the stock is incredibly cheap relative the others, trades at 21 times. it's had a 20% month. the second largest language
12:15 pm
model and they're developing their own model. progress is being made. you can see it. and you have nvidia which has an 80% share. that is tough to maintain in an environment where one of your largest customers is trying to compete with you. >> sure. the narrative was they missed the boat. the reason i suggested the stock price and the narrative not matching up is because the narrative has been largely negative. the stock performance has been largely positive. right, josh? >> in the last month. >> rob is lost. longer than that. the narrative -- by the way, brad gerstner did a really good job laying out the risks of alphabet and why he no longer wanted to be invested in it in the new a.i. era. i think he made a solid point. even if alphabet is competitive in a land of generative a.i., they ain't going to own the whole thing the way they did
12:16 pm
with search. and so if you follow that logic, if large language models are the new search engine, quite frankly google ain't going to be google anymore. i think that's a reasonable take on why to be cautious on the name. to rob's point, that's okay. the stock was inextensive relative to the fundamentals today and is not inherent lip at risk for a massive disruption. it takes a long time to figure out who will be the long-term winner in agi. we know the players. >> better performing stock over the last 12 months, alphabet or microsoft? identical. 45% each. if i asked a lot of people that question, who has performed better, i bet you the majority would say of course microsoft.
12:17 pm
not the case. >> the ownership we have is related to price and is related to momentum. that's been the strongest factor. i understand the fundamental argument you're making. i understand the a.i. inclusion, all of that, but there were questions surrounding the stock in the last six to eight weeks and there were volume i had questions. it has driven investors back to the skok stock. we go to kate rooney as we approach a potential milestone. >> reporter: we have seen price target increases and calls reaffirming as one of the top picks. 13% upside from where it's trading now. no celebrations on amazon.
12:18 pm
rbc calls amazon one of the true alpha dogs thanks to scale and e-commerce combined with cloud business and jefferies says still plenty to be excited about, plenty of runway ahead. also a topic for morgan stanley, which points out better cost and efficiency upside plus prime driving the recurring revenue. advertising potential and while a.i., as you've talked about, very few mentions of it as a catalyst for amazon stock. the big risk include any sort of aws decline and then e-commerce competition from shein and temu. >> kate rooney, thank you. stephanie link, you own the stock. >> it's had a good prior year, too, up 81%. it is a clear standout. i would say there's three ways to win with amazon. aws accelerates, what we've been seeing, and the data points show 12% growth to 15%, 16% by the end of the year. that's very powerful. this is the most important
12:19 pm
business for the company. retail margins are accelerating. i think they could do high single digits and then you have advertising. i think the company has done a much better job in efficiencies and execution. it's certainly not cheap and i do not appreciate 97% is in on it. the momentum and the fundamentals are on their side. >> sell side is positive. >> i don't think you'll find much fight but you have amazon as well. >> put it in the title of the report. the importance of amazon in the consumer discretionary sector has had a lot of problems. with the head winds going away the last several months, there's
12:20 pm
a ton of tail winds coming. >> let's do some news now that we're getting here. we'll have more reporting on this from our phil lebeau. the intraday of boeing is dropping. there are reports now from "the new york times" the faa is investigating whistle-blower claims with boeing's dreamliner jet. a number of issues with boeing. here yet another one. our phil lebeau to give us more context into all of this. we do have ownership on the desk. while we wait for phil, let's kick this around. steph, i'll come to you first on boeing and then back to the technology discussion we're having today. there's significant news as it relates to the chips, too. the stock is under pressure. >> i think you have to be patient. it will not change overnight. there's a lot of fixes in place. they don't even have a ceo at
12:21 pm
this point. they do but they're getting a new one and they are actively searching. that will be the next catalyst. we have to get through a lot of the bad headlines and we have to have the stock not go down on bad news anymore. every time we get these headlines, it goes down. i'm staying patient. again, i think and i speak to the duopoly of airbus and boeing and how powerful that is over the long run, but if you have a short-term time frame, you're not going to make a lot of money. >> you own it, too? >> we do. if you think about boeing's place in a value portfolio, i think boeing will be the next ge in terms of the turnaround and what it has potential to do in terms of righting its ship. >> so the ceo change, at some point do the number of negative stories overshadow the duopoly? because that's the principle argument from bulls, longer term bulls like steph. jim lebenthal owned the stock,
12:22 pm
and that was one of his key principles until he just decided i've had it and sold the stock. >> i think, too, we need to see -- obviously they've laid out the direction of where this is going from a leadership perspective. they need to get the house in order in terms of these issues and stop with the issues. we talk about this is the end. there's a huge credibility problem on a near-term basis. this has to end at some point. when you own a value portfolio, you want to take a different take. >> let's bring in phil lebeau. phil, what are we learning here? we're still waiting to find confirmation from the faa regarding an investigation based on the claims from this whistle-blower regarding the way in which the fuselage of the dreamliner, the way in which the barrels are joined. that's at the heart of the complaints that come from this quality engineer at boeing. so if the faa does open the
12:23 pm
investigation, which would not be surprising, if the faa opens an investigation, then it raises the question, do they ultimately have tohalt production, or is this a case where they say, you know what, we will just go forward with additional inspections of about 980 dream liners that are in service around the world. but there's no doubt when you have a report like this in "the new york times" dropping in the middle of the day, the fact is if you are a boeing investor, you're looking at this and, understandably, the stock is moving lower, you're looking at this saying, okay, what's next? at this point we're waiting to learn more. ring the bell. let me jump off. this is the faa. let me talk to them and i'll talk to you guys. >> you bet. >> we appreciate that of that's how reporting goes. phil, thank you very much for that. we'll watch for more developments on that and keep an eye on the stock down 1 1/3
12:24 pm
percent. it's a big day for chip stocks. you have intel, new chip that's news, broadcom, steph, you own that. $1,700 is the price target there. chips are hotly debated whether they've run too far too fast. >> i've been trimming every week just to take profits. that being said this is the number two way to play a.i. behind it nvidia. they have vmware i think is very powerful, really helps their software business and recurring revenues and better margins. there's a shot thiscompany could power in the next two years. i still like it. >> you want to give me 30 seconds on applied materials or the cancellation of this r&d
12:25 pm
facility in california? >> still an essential chip maker, advanced chips using a.i. it's more cyclical. it's up 28% year to date. it's not that expensive, frankly. trades at 24 times earnings. a margin of safety in terms of the price here to deal with hiccups like this. >> let's bounce for a couple minutes. we're going to come back. i have a new move or an addition to a stock that stephanie link owns. we have our "calls of the day" as well and will await any more potential boeing news after phil lebeau gets off the phone with the faa. >> announcer: are you following "the halftime report" podcast? what are you waiting for? lookor u fs in your favorite podcasting app. follow now. are you ready to meet your demise? man, we really need to upgrade your trash talk. ♪♪
12:26 pm
nice shot... shot... taker. who programmed you?! i'll see you tomorrow. the future isn't scary, not investing in it is. 100 innovative companies, one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com. at pgim, finding opportunity in fixed income today, helps secure tomorrow. our time-tested fixed income suite, backed by over 145 years of risk experience, helps investors meet their goals. pgim investments. shaping tomorrow today.
12:27 pm
business. pgim investments. it's not a nine-to-five proposition. it's all day and into the night. it's all the things that keep this world turning. the go-tos that keep us going. the places we cheer. and check in. they all choose the advanced network solutions and round the clock partnership from comcast business. see why comcast business powers more small businesses than anyone else. get started for $49.99 a month plus ask how to get up to an $800 prepaid card. don't wait- call today.
12:28 pm
♪ all right. we're back. to stephanie link for more information on the move i told you about, so you bought more gev. >> it spun out last week and fell 14% the following three days. i just thought that was egregious. this is a company -- this is power, win, electricity. their install base, they actually supply 30% of the
12:29 pm
world's electricity. this is a real player. you know i like spin, i like ge health care and aerospace. i like this a lot. i think it's underperformed for so many years. there's margin upside, free cash flow generation, very little debt. i want it to be bigger and so now i am. >> let's do some "calls of the day." josh, nasdaq was up, price target goes all the way to $80 from $59. they're bullish on the transformation story. you own the stock. >> that's right, scott. in fact, they upgraded it to overweight and elevated it to top pick, replacing black rock, which they're still overweight on. this is the name. i agree. according to the analyst they're bullish on the story at nasdaq as they shift to higher quality, recurring revenue streams, so people look at the stock, they look at it as a traditional exchange, which it is, and they
12:30 pm
think of it transactionally. the truth of it is, nasdaq has been making fintech and adding software products that are offerings. the best way to think about it is multiple businesses under one banner. that being said, the big driver here is going to be new listings, in my opinion, in 2024. if you think the ipo calendar is coming back, and i do, nasdaq is probably one of the cleanest ways to play it in all of the u.s. stock markets. i'm long. i love it, and i'm staying here. >> let's talk amex. downgraded to equal weight, joe, that's at barclays. they do bump the target by $1. so we're here, right? we're at $220 now. what do we think about amex? i think it's been on the list of those stocks in broad sectors that have been hitting new highs recently. >> one of the leading stocks that gave you the advanced
12:31 pm
knowledge that you would have the broadening out -- and this financial company is a company that has managed the balance sheet remarkably well but has also benefited from the high-end consumer, the contribution from the high-end consumer. you're seeing the revenue growth and the delivering revenue growth on a consistent basis not just in the most recent quarter. if you go back over the last three years, they're growing at 20%. so this is the type of financial company in which you're going to get revenue growth that you're not going to get in other areas of the market. i don't like the downgrade because why don't we wait and see how they're going to report in the middle of the month, see if there's a deceleration -- >> we're trying to get ahead of it. they're worried about revenue coming in worse than expected. they did say that explicitly. >> i understand they're worried about that. i understand -- >> we get monthly metrics. >> i know. >> small business loans have been strong.
12:32 pm
>> their charge-offs were not that bad. i agree with you. i'm saying that. >> well, you both own it. >> we both own it. what i'm arcing for is i like to have the negative news in front of me, the negative reaction subsequent to that before i tell investors, okay, let's reduce the position size. >> freeport is upgraded at bank of america, the target goes to 59. it's about an 18% upside. the stock is tup 2% today. steph, this, i think, is reasonably recent buy? >> i've been adding it all year but a couple weeks ago i added more to it. if you think that copper will remain strong, which i do -- especially global growth improving -- that's $430 million to ebitda and $350 million to cash flow and this company has massively reduced debt. so i like it very much.
12:33 pm
up nine times ebitda. this is not the only freeport-mcmoran. >> cisco was resumed overweight at morgan stanley. that's a big jump from here. >> it is a big jump. they've righted some the ship. this company is a cash flow juggernaut and continues to pay a large dividend and increasing that. don't forget about buybacks. we really like the company longer term. the headlines with seema mody. the epa's decision to approve california'selectric vehicle rules, rejecting a challenge from 17 states and companies that made or sold liquid fuels n. 2022 the epa restored a waiver that allowed california to set its own electric vehicle sales mandate reversing a 2019 decision from former president trump. israel is buying 40,000 tents ahead of an evacuation in
12:34 pm
rafah where they have vowed to rout out hamas. the israeli defense ministry did not confirm the purchase. the eiffel tower will be accessorized for the summer olympics. a 49-foot-high structure of the olympic rings will be displayed on the tower overlooking the river sennes. pieces from the tower installation will begin at the end of the month. up next, a big call on big energy. one top firm urangpgdi today. we'll debate the best way to play it next. unlocking th e power of thinkorswim, the award-winning trading platforms. bring your trades into focus on thinkorswim desktop with robust charting and analysis tools, including over 400 technical studies. tailor the platforms to your unique needs with nearly endless customization. and track market trends with up-to-the-minute news and insights. trade brilliantly with schwab.
12:35 pm
power e*trade's easy-to-use tools, like dynamic charting and risk-reward analysis, help make trading feel effortless. and its customizable scans with social sentiment help you find and unlock opportunities in the market. e*trade from morgan stanley. with powerful, easy-to-use tools, power e*trade makes complex trading easier. react to fast-moving markets with dynamic charting and a futures ladder that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity.
12:36 pm
e*trade from morgan stanley. ♪♪ the road to opportunity. is often the road overlooked. at enterprise mobility, we guide companies to unique solutions, from our team of mobility experts. because we believe the more ways we all have to move forward the further we all go. (grandpa vo) i'm the richest guy in the world. we all havhi baby!e forward (woman 1 vo) i have inherited the best traditions. (woman 2 vo) i have a great boss... it's me. (man 1 vo) i have people, people i can count on. (man 2 vo) i have time to give (grandma vo) and a million stories to share. (grandpa vo) if that's not rich, i don't know what is. (vo) the key to being rich is knowing what counts.
12:37 pm
back to phil lebeau with the faa and we do have a statement from boeing. >> the faa is looking into these allegations from a quality engineer at boeing about the quality and the safety integrity of the tube, the fuselage tube, where they are joined for the 787 dreamliner.
12:38 pm
these are composite joined in a number of areas and his claims about the quality of where they are joined is at the heart of this complaint. which, by the way, and we just got a notice from his attorney, he filed a complaint with the faa in january of this year. so that's when the whistle-blower complaint was filed and with regard to the faa they are looking into the claims. the attorneys and the whistle-blower plan to hold a press conference this afternoon. we're just seeing the beginning of this being stirred up. in terms of boeing, we did reach out to boeing. it has a statement regarding the claims of the whistle-blower and it's what you would expect. boeing denying these claims that the dreamliner is -- they're taking shortcuts to put the dreamliner together. we are fully confident in the dreamliner. these claims of the 787 are
12:39 pm
inaccurate and do not represent the work boeing has done to ensure the quality and long-term safety of the aircraft. issues raised have been subject to rigorous examination under faa oversight. this analysis has validated these issues do not present any safety concerns. we should point out the dreamliner, they stopped production for much of 2020 up through late 2022 to inspect minute cracks. and whether or not it represented integrity degrading to a point it was a flight of safety issue. and in 2022 they made a decision, the faa did, that the inspections put in place and changes in production, all of
12:40 pm
that together made the dreamliner not only safe to continue to fly but also to begin production and deliveries. we'll see what happens with this claim from a boeing quality engineer who believes that shortcuts were taken and then he was retaliated against when he brought this to the attention of his superiors at boeing. >> phil, i think i heard you say there were some 980 of these planes in operations around the world. do you know which airline uses the most of them? >> i don't know who uses them the most. united airlines has dreamliners they use. so 980 around the world and i think we just got the production and delivery numbers, deliveries
12:41 pm
can be lumpy when it comes to the dreamliner. i think they're up to five per month. there is demand around the world for this airplane. >> good context, too, on at least a bit of history regarding this particular model of airplanes. that's phil lebeau. mike santoli will be here with his "midday word." ment, but i wd more cash. you think those twod have any idea? that they can sell their life insurance policy for cash? so they're basically sitting on a goldmine? i don't think they have a clue. that's crazy! well, not everyone knows coventry's helped thousands of people sell their policies for cash. even term policies. i can't believe they're just sitting up there! sitting on all this cash. if you own a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more, you can sell
12:42 pm
all or part of it to coventry. even a term policy. for cash, or a combination of cash and coverage, with no future premiums. someone needs to tell them, that they're sitting on a goldmine, and you have no idea! hey, guys! you're sitting on a goldmine! come on, guys! do you hear that? i don't hear anything anymore. find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com.
12:43 pm
when people come, they say they've tried lots of diets, nothing's worked or they've lost the same 10, 20, 50 pounds over and over again. they need a real solution. i've always fought with 5-10 pounds all the time. eating all these different things and nothing's ever working. i've done the diets, all the diets. before golo, i was barely eating but the weight wasn't going anywhere. the secret to losing weight and keeping it off is managing insulin and glucose. golo takes a systematic approach to eating
12:44 pm
that focuses on optimizing insulin levels. we tackle the cause of weight gain, not just the symptom. when you have good metabolic health, weight loss is easy. i always thought it would be so difficult to lose weight, but with golo, it wasn't. the weight just fell off. i have people come up to me all the time and ask me, "does it really work?" and all i have to say is, "here i am. it works." my advice for everyone is to go with golo. it will release your fat and it will release you. welcome back. our senior markets commentator mike santoli joins us with his "midday word." the great wait almost over. >> by rights, maybe it shouldn't actually have that much significance but i understand why the market is treating it this way. we're going to have before the june fed meeting. the may cpi is on the second day
12:45 pm
of the meeting. you have to fixate because the fed has become too cute. i get that in the absence of earnings reports and the absence of other macro numbers that are really changing the narrative. the markets are in a neutral spot all day and the last three days really testing the entire range that we carved out on thursday. the bull has broken stride. the rhythm is not what it was going into the end of march. it doesn't mean it's wounded. i feel like we've seen this market flatten out, rotate around and rescue itself. >> the yield is down across the curve today so it's not like the creep higher continues into the number even if there's some level of nervousness about what the reit would be. >> if you dial it back, what
12:46 pm
would it mean to be on neutral footing going into cpi, there has been that significant move recently. i'm not sure if i know what to read into that. >> good points, of course, from mike santoli. i'll see you on "closing bell." thank you. > big call on energy today. meets bold new thinking. to help you see untapped possibilities and relentlessly work with you to make them real.
12:47 pm
12:48 pm
12:49 pm
at pgim, finding opportunity in fixed income today, helps secure tomorrow. our time-tested fixed income suite, backed by over 145 years of risk experience, helps investors meet their goals. pgim investments. shaping tomorrow today. a call out of morgan stanley by mike wilson upgrading energy to overweight. so it was the best performing sector, joe, last month, and it's obviously at the top of a lot of people's list on areas outside of tech, and that continued to do well. what do you make of this call and what do you make of it now after the sector has run a lot and crude has run a lot, too? >> we continue to maintain overweight energy. this is more a gasoline story in terms of the performance of energy stocks than anything else. >> does that mean i want refiners? >> marathon petroleum performed
12:50 pm
well last year. phillips 66, valero all performing well. the strength in gasoline -- i was out in las vegas and paid $4.25 for unleaded gasoline. so did everyone else in the gas station. no one turned away and said, i'm not paying that price. they're paying that price. they're paying that price because the economy is strong. and there's no perfect economic world. so let's not sit here and look at oil at $86 and see gasoline up 30% and say whoops, we don't want to be in the stock market because oil is going to be a problem. guess what? oil might go to $100 before this year's out, and that doesn't mean you sell out of your energy equities or equities overall. >> josh, this is where you zeroed in the other day specific to, youknow, these charts that you are focused on. it was really the refiners, the phillips, marathon, et cetera. >> yeah, look, i think when most people think of the energy sector, their first instinct is
12:51 pm
to think chevron, exxon, and those are great ways to play it. but there's a lot more happening in energy worthy of attention right now. if you look at the median valuation of energy stocks in the s&p 500, this is a bestoke stat, it's bigger than the median valuation of the tech stocks in the same inindex. there are many ways that you want to play. i prefer the ieo etf. the thing about energy stocks, they all move together in the end. some might go up more than others. but if there's a rally in the commodity, pretty much you can throw darts at the sector and make money. so i simplify it. i own the ieo. maybe diamondback does better this week, but overall, the sector is in a bull market, and i want to stay long here. >> speaking of conoco, you own that, rob?
12:52 pm
>> yeah. i mean, we just view these as a hedge against inflation and against geopolitical events. these companies are all -- have mid digit shareholder yields, they're doing mid digit buybacks. they trade at five to seven times earnings, and you have the other tailwind that josh mentioned, which is higher oil prices. you know, the market is starting to wake up to that. it was hard to be long in these names in the beginning of the year, very hard. now it's starting to pay dividends at a time when you need them to. >> stef? >> yeah. i like slb, i like diamondback, exxon, and i'm doing like a barbell safety, it's my safety dividend play. diamondback has changed with the endeavor acquisition. and now slb, 25% margins, to me that's a bargain.
12:53 pm
>> i'm stirring the pot. i do not like this call. i do not like this call. the sector is 3% of the market, up 15%. two of the top ten performing stocks in the s&p 500 are marathon and velero. they have negative earnings growth the next 12 months. i like chesapeake and small midland. >> chevron and exxon, you think the space has moved too much? >> yes, it's too late. >> you sit in a very dangerous seat between stef and i. >> you don't have to chase it. it's only up 16% in the past year. >> he prefers to get his energy from the sun, in case you haven't noticed. i don't know why you're laughing either at the end. apparently you -- >> high blood pressure from working too hard. >> "final trades" are next.
12:54 pm
your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire
12:55 pm
12:56 pm
♪(relaxing music)♪ (♪♪) (♪♪) book in the hotels.com app to find your perfect somewhere.
12:57 pm
this is our future, ma. godaddy airo. creates a logo, website, even social posts... in minutes! -how? -a.i. (impressed) ay i like it! who wants to come see the future?! get your business online in minutes with godaddy airo ameritrade is now part of schwab. bringing you an elevated experience, tailor-made for trader minds. go deeper with thinkorswim:
12:58 pm
our award-wining trading platforms. unlock support from the schwab trade desk, our team of passionate traders who live and breathe trading. and sharpen your skills with an immersive online education crafted just for traders. all so you can trade brilliantly. - so this is pickleball? - pickle! ah, these guys are intense. with e*trade from morgan stanley, we're ready for whatever gets served up. dude, you gotta work on your trash talk. i'd rather work on saving for retirement. or college, since you like to get schooled. that's a pretty good burn, right?
12:59 pm
i'll see you on "closing bell" at 3:00. liz young will be with me, on this alphabet news today. hope you'll join me then. josh brown, what's your final? >> nasdaq, going higher. >> rob? >> alphabet. betting against them is like
1:00 pm
betting against kobe wearing number 24. they're going to adapt. >> brian? >> spotify. >> stephanie? >> charles schwab. the mid interest margins have bo bottomed. >> joe snmplt >> tech resources. >> i look forward to seeing you at 3:00. "the exchange" is now. thank you very much, scott. welcome to "the exchange." i'm deidre bosa in for kelly evans. and here is what's ahead. we have the three names to pick out of the mag seven, and the names and areas beyond big cap tech where he's seeing opportunity. and plus, as we are gearing up for bank earnings, we are checking in with someone who runs the bank and has helped run some of the biggest tech companies. she's looking to transform the banking industry. she's here to tell us how. and ahead of cpi tomorrow, inflation concerns not slowing

62 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on