to tune into "last call," that is tonight at 7:00 eastern. we got bruce smith, buffalo bills legend, nfl hall of famer, talking about why he's throwing his weight behind a proposed casino in virginia. bruce and a cast of thousands, tonight on "last call." we'll see you then. that does it for "overtime." "fast money" begins right now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. under fire. the wall street journal reporting morgan stanley is being probed by multiple federal regulators. the stock down sharply on concerns of how the firm is betting wealthy clients, the source of their funds, and potential money laundering. plus, how an s&p 500 company with a market cap of nearly $10 billion lost more than half its value today and all because of a report from a short seller named fuzzy panda. and later, apple's effort of an a.i. overall.

amazon's record-breaking day, and another ev maker losing its charge. i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. on the desk tonight -- tim seymour, karen finerman, steve grasso, and guy adami. we start with morgan stanley. sinking 7% today after a report that the company is being probed over how it vets clients. leslie picker has all the details. she's on the fast line. >> hey, melissa. that five and a quarter percent decline continuing a little bit in the afterhours, and that was after you mentioned that report about a wider regulatory probe into the firm's wealth management division, and how it is vetting clients at risk of money laundering. at issue, according to sources that were anonymous in the piece, basically whether morgan stanley has been, quote, sufficiently investigating the eidentities of clients and wher their wealth comes from, as well as how it monitors its clients' financial activity.

some of the probe is focused on international clients. the journal reported that the fed has been looking into similar issues, but today's story says there involvement by other regulators, as well, including the s.e.c. and the office of the comptroller of the currency, among other treasury department offices. and that, again, is according to those journal sources. i reached out to morgan stanley for comment, they declined to comment here, as did the occ, but morgan stanley reports its first quarter earnings next tuesday. executive chairman james gorman has aggressed this in the past, so we'll be definitely listening in extra closely next week to see if any of this is discussed, melissa. >> in your view, leslie, what has gotten worse since this was first disclosed? i mean, what i found interesting in the report was that there were lists of clients and these lists were generated by separate agencies and some of those clients on those separate lists actually overlap, which seems to me like a real reflag that

there's something about these same groups of clients that, you know, sounded the alarms off. >> and international, of course, the key focus here, as well. what's interesting is, it doesn't appear to be anything kind of specific client, or anything that, you know, sounded the alarms for regulators. that it was just a broader probe into the processes and the way they vet their clients. it's also notable, they just filed their proxy, i want to say a week or two ago. this wasn't listed as one of the major legal issues that they have right now, so, it appears to be kind of at this probe stage, but i think what sent the alarm bells ringing with this wall street journal report is the idea that more regulatory agencies other than the fed are looking into this. therefore it has expanded, so, it's unclear exactly what at this time it will lead to. >> all right, leslie, thank you. leslie picker joining us tonight on the fast line.

wealth management, of course, a unit that really differentiates morgan stanley. that's what investors like about morgan stanley, and here it is under scrutiny here. karen, how do you think about how this could impact that business and the growth of that business? >> yeah, so, i own morgan stanley, so, i'm not delighted by this. it has to weigh on it somewhat, aside from just, you know, i don't know how you comply with these probes. that sort of takes a lot of work. takes a lot of focus. it's probably not great for more real, i don't know how you are in sort of a growth mode and trying to reinvigorate while you're doing that. so -- on the other hand, i'm not really sure how big of a -- how much is this really worth to them? i don't really know. i sort of feel like, if they have great earnings, i don't know that people will care they have great earnings, because they got to clear up this first. if they have bad earnings, that's probably bad. so, i'm not that optimistic in the near-term that this turns around very quickly. i don't want to say this is a giant disaster at all.

i think i have to read more about, how did they -- in the 10k, how did they describe this issue, interesting because lel leslie said it's not in the proxy. and how did it get bigger? there are some sort of juicy, you know, oh, one account is a caribbean account, seems to be in the caribbean, but claims to be elsewhere and had a lot more money than the occupation of the person whose account that is -- >> it was actually guy's account. >> okay. we've narrowed that town, which is good. >> i'm looking around, like. >> it will weigh on the stock in the short-term. >> it's -- like, it's been a fascinating couple years for morgan stanley. a fascinating five years, if you think about the business they've taken, which was very reliant on m&a broker dealer dynamics, investment banking, for sure, into a business that's more than 50% in asset management. that smoothed out the business, it added to the multiple. we're talking about the acquisition of eaton vance. there's a lot of specialized management in here.

but if you think about what the impact of this headline is, first of all, aml, money laundering rules and what not are no joke in the asset management business and morgan stanley is not treating them as such. what i'm saying is, this is something that involved multiple regulatory bodies within the u.s. government. including the treasury. so, there are dynamics here that i think will take some time. whether this impacts the stock, i mean, i have to say, the stock's been kind of dead money for two years and it is amazing how we do a morgan stanley goldman sachs comparison. and for the last, i would say, really since that peak of the morgan stanley valuation in early '22, it's underperformed goldman sachs by 25%. >> i was going to touch on that. it has underperformed the entire group. and if you go back to january 16th, they paid hundreds of millions of dollars in regulatory fees. is this a pattern? is it the same thing? a derivative of the same thing? i don't know what the difference is, but for me, i would wait --

why would you want to rush in here? why would you want to buy a stock that just had a collapse. which, by the way, a bigger percentage collapse in january off of that january 16th headline, even though it was in it a little bit before, was a bigger collapse back then, rallied back, had a good couple of months, and now we're dealing with the same type of thing. and once again, to tim's point, this has underperformed the group for quite some time. >> the visual goes a long way. so, let's pretend this news didn't exist and to tim and steve's point, i mean, where goldman sachs is making effectively an all-time high and it's been sort of lower left-upper right for awhile. morgan stanley has been flat lining since this point in 2022. it had a huge run, from, like, $30 to i think $101, and it sold off and here we are. so, that's on what's being an extraordinary tape and obviously a great environment for the goldman sachs and jpmorgans of the world, so, it's

underperformed. you throw this on top, and what steve just said, why rush in ahead of earnings to this point? there's no compelling reason, given the fact that you hear from them next year and there's more to come with this, to buy the stock, unless you feel very confident that earnings are going to blow it out of the water and this is a nonstory. >> banks pay fees all the time, they pay fines all the time for various charges, so -- >> cost of doing business. >> right. so, is this part of it, or do you think about sort of the interim, where maybe opening new accounts might slow because they have to be more careful about how they do that? they have to implement new processes, which may cost more money, more compliance staff, which costs more money, i mean, how do we think about the actual impact? >> well, james gorman pointed out that, in january that they're spending more money, as if, you know, there was the knowledge that this is something they're dealing with, on software and systems to really be more involved here. again, i think it will impact in

terms of processes. it has to. having said that, i think this is going to be an overreaction. this isn't a reason to not buy the stock. the reason not to buy the stock, there they be some dynamics in the wealth management, asset management, overall trends that i think -- look, it's been as good of a spot for that business for the last two years, and the stock's underperformed. i don't love that. i also, you know, i was reading a report by jeffries, they point out, dead capital marks are actually kind of back. equity capital markets are coming back. m and a advisory fees, they are the lowest they've been in a long time. the dynamics for the other parts of the business aren't great. those are the things i'm more worried about. these headlines are things to pay attention to but this isn't the reason why i would not be owning the stock. >> all right, rbc's top bank analyst thinks this issue should be taken very seriously. george cassidy is the head of u.s. bank strategy, got a hold rating and $91 price target on morgan stanley.

you've been listening to our conversation. how do you think this actually impacts morgan stanley? >> over the near term, melissa, it's certainly going to weigh on the performance of the company. it's unfortunate they're running into these problems, because bsa, aml, as everyone's been talking about, very serious. they will get to the bottom of these problems, they will solve these problems, but it will take time, it will take some money. and as i think karen pointed out, it's going to district a number of people in the organization from growing that business, and i think it was guy that mentioned, you know, this has been a real source of strength for the company in increasing its valuation over the last five years, and now it's unfortunately running into some issues. >> hey, gerard, it's karen. thanks for coming on. i'm a little confused about sort of the dripping out of, all right, so, there seems to be a problem in january, now it seems to be bigger. how do you think that happened? i'd much rather, as a sad

shareholder, see a giant se sett settlement, fine, whatever it is, and the end of the issue, as opposed to this kind of slow burn. >> no, i understand what you mean, karen. and we saw it actually with new york community bank, when you saw their problems in january, totally different reasons. but what outsiders sometimes don't fullyappreciate, as much as we think the regulators talk to each other for a coordinated effort, that's not always the case. and i think that may have been the situation here. it wouldn't surprise me that the regulators, they're all in their own silos and very productive of their turf and they go about it in their own way, and therefore that january announcement may have brought the other regulators onboard to take a look, as well. >> let's downshift, gerard, if we may, since you're here and you're on the mount rushmore of

bank analysts. bank of america is your top pick in the space, i believe. so, the question i have is, does that mean by definition you have to think rates are going down? because when ten-year yields were 5% and their hold to maturity losses were $114 billion, this was a $25 stock. it's not coincidence that it rallied as rates went down. what are your thoughts in terms of bac and interest rates? >> it's a really good question, guy, because when you think about bank of america, one of the great strengths of this company, it's true for some of the others, like jpmorgan, and regional banks like fifth-third, it's the core consumer deposits. that's the story for a bank. as we all know, following the financial crisis, when you had rates at 0 to 25 basis points, core consumer december positive sits were not that valuable. now, with rates at over 5%, they're extremely valuable. and so, the bank of america long-term story is about that

phenomenal deposit base they have. to your point on the held to maturity losses, when you take a look at that, the stock obviously was lower, and that was when everybody was very fearful of what that meant for maybe capital, but now, people realize that the held to maturity losses will weigh on their margin, but over time, they're burning off, so, we're six to nine months, you know, further into it, so, it's not as much of an issue, but i think we're going to hear about the aoci, the marks they take from capital on the calls this week, because those numbers have grown for everybody. >> gerard, great to see you. thank you for your analysis. >> thank you. >> we were at the precipice of these bank earnings coming out. >> we've been dealing with the inverted yield curve. the banks have tone just fine on it. new loan generation is what you want to see. with interest rates so high, that's going to be a head wind. that's something different, we haven't seen that. and it's getting longer in the

tooth. jpmorgan has outperformed everybody by a pretty decent margin. so, i don't want to make it really complicated. i just stick with jpmorgan. >> so, karen likes to hear that. >> yes. >> what do you make of bank of america in terms of gerard's explanation? it's an interesting one, some of that portfolio's worked off, this many months into it, but if rates go back, if they go north of 4.5, what happens? >> well, this is sort of foregone margin they can't earn, because they have so much money out further duration, the hold to maturity. and what he is talking aoci, mark to market, which -- it can be variable, some people look through it. i just want to hear what they think of the economy and how the consumer is doing, and, you know, jamie didn't seem that optimistic on his letter, but that's sort of his way, he's always a lot to be afraid of. i think it's going to be -- there's a lot of good things going on. multiple parts of the business. >> i think net interest income

is really important for these banks, and that's only gotten better. let's turn to apple, which saw a huge pop in today's session. shares jumping after reports that the tech tie on the plans to overhaul its entire mac line with a.i.-focused chips. apple hoping to boost sluggish sales. the stock's 4% plus rise, its best gain since last may. wow. it got a.i. love today. >> too bad dan's not here. i'm sure he'd wax poetic. it traded 90 million shares, which is a good sign. it didn't do this on light volume, which is encouraging. fact that it keeps pushing down to that moving average seemingly holding it is encouraging. but is that going to basically cure all the ills that we've talked about now for awhile? for one day, it has. the same way, by the way, it did, i think, 2 1/2, 3 weeks ago where you had that blip before it headed south again. let's see tomorrow and over the next couple of days. >> the timing is interesting. this would be a very quick refresh in terms of its new macs

and, you know, laptops, et cetera. the timing is also ahead of the wwc, so -- you could have a one-two punch here of a.i. excitement for apple. >> yeah, and i think as a couple of the brokers put out in the reports, the time is right for this. so, a stock that's been looking for a catalyst, a stock that has a date where often there is a catalyst and a dynamic here. apple hasn't been sitting around in the a.i. world doing zero there's no question. and we talked all about how that install base is so powerful in terms of when they really decide to make it an impact on the phones themselves. so, the fact that we're getting macbook dynamics and we have this event coming up, it probably eases higher. coming up, retail rates and a furry panda. how a short seller with a funny name is sinking an insurance stock. a check-in on capri and tap strip's potential deal. and what karen is seeing in the charts, and where the ten-year could be heading after this week's inflation data. all that ahead. and later, amazon's all-time high. the e-commerce giant jumping to

records in today's session. is that stock primed to keep popping? don't go anywhere. "fast money" is back in two. this is "fast money" with melissa lee. right here on cnbc.

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welcome back to "fast money." sh shares of globe life making a comeback in the afterhours, after responding to a short seller's report. fuzzy panda research accused globe life's subsidiary american income life, of insurance fraud. that division accounts for half of globe leitchife's total marg. shares were down 53% during the session. contessa brewer is here with the latest on this. >> yeah, in fact, at one point, melissa, shares of globe life were actually paused, the trading waspaused, because of the volatility, and they fell to their lowest level in more than ten years on that report from fuzzy panda research, disclosing the short position. so, fuzzy panda says there are multiple instances of insurance fraud. they claim were ignored by the management of the last two

years. here's the response we got from the company today. they said, we are disappointed to see self-motivated short sellers are driving down stock price. the report was mildly misleading, mixin i ing -- the motivations are driven solely by short-term profits. and they go on to say they take these allegations seriously. they don't stand for any of those misdeeds. meanwhile, we know that the department of justice opened a probe that was disclosed in an 8k in march by the company and globe life says it's been cooperating with the u.s. attorney's office in response to subpoenas that were issued. by the way, we believe that globe life and its subsidiary companies have more policy holders than any other life insurance company in the country. and they really target their business toward lower and middle income customers that have an

average life insurance policy of, say, $30,000, $40,000, so, it's a totally different demographic than some of the biggest competitors. analysts that i spoke with say this company has a solid track record, it has a solid management team, predictable and stable results compared to some of their p -- to the sum of the peers. but we'll see the short seller's report, the impact on the stock. melissa, i'll send it back to you. >> when you speak to the analysts and say they have stable earnings, i mean, are they almost too stable, oddly stable? is there any sort of shock about this report? >> what they -- yes. the analysts that i spoke with say because of the quality of the management that's been in place, people that have been operating in the life insurance business for years and years, there was some shock about the disclosure of the investigation and the lawsuits that have been filed, but on the other hand,

they employ, i was told, somewhere in the neighborhood of 10,000 independent agents, so, there has been some sort of, like, if you have 10,000 independent agents, could there be misdeeds? absolutely. but again, i go back to what the company says. they say that they are operating in accordance with the highest level of ethics and integrity, and they don't tolerate the kind of behavior that is alleged in the lawsuit, in the doj probe, and now by the short seller's report. >> all right, contessa, thank you. up 9% in the afterhours, but far from recouping the losses that it suffered in today's session. it's worth noting that just last week, glow be life was highlighd in a negative way at a conference. so, it's not the first time there have been some allegations. and the doj opened up its investigation just in the beginning of march. >> all fair. 56%, or whatever it was, is -- that's interesting.

now, fuzzy panda, that's the first time -- >> anonymous short seller. >> fair enough. they said we have found extensive allegations. i mean, those should come to light at some point, right? i would think. number two, if you don't believe it, if you think it's fugazi, you have reason to believe in this company, they report next week. they should actually probably, i would think, if they could, come out, karen can probably speak to this, report tomorrow and discuss this. >> yes. >> with all that said, i mean, this stock traded 36 times normal volume today, so -- if you are into the casino model, might be an interesting shot on the long time, just on the back of that. >> if you are -- i mean, this is a crisis, right? and you're in the business of anything that's a financial product in any way, you want your customers to think of you as a good institution, right? so, if they -- they must have some sense, the quarter ended, if -- they really should address this, if they could, i mean, it is -- i get why they're upset. fuzzy panda, we don't know who fuzzy panda is.

you got to think about the anonymity. but as to how to trade, i have no idea, just seems so -- this is crazy. so, i wouldn't be long or short, but i totally agree with you on how they should handle it, if they can. >> we're not talking about a microcap or small cap company being pushed around, i mean, this is a huge company listed on the s&p 500 that just whacked today. >> this brought it back to levels, i don't know if guy said it, back to february 16th, 2016 levels, so, this was -- i'm not advocating someone to run in and try to buy it off this dip, but when you're looking at something like this, they're already buying in the afterhours, we showed the chart, it's up 8%. i think the way to take this is, if you want to take a stab on very small amounts and know nothing, you're just at the casino, but if you know the other companies that were dragged down by it, all the other names that you don't think are going to have the same problem, maybe you want to buy those on a dip.

>> regarding the quiet period, should they come out, piper has a note out saying that this creates essentially an information vacuum, investors have nothing to go with. and could they come in front of that, i don't know. it also points out that there is -- there is more headline risk when you're selling products to retail folks. opposed to institutional. and this is the kind of business that this business has been in, and maybe they've been too good. by the way, i mean, aren't pandas already fuzzy, so, wouldn't -- >> furry. i don't know about fuzzy. >> maybe it's just a descriptor. you say yellow duck, you know, or some other -- >> young rookie. >> i love pandas, though. >> that one makes me crazy. >> young rookie. >> you could have somebody that's new to something, a sport, who is not young, according to age, but young in terms of experience. >> it's funny, because in sports, if someone is relatively young, they often call him a manchild, if he's particularly good, am i right? >> off the rails. >> are we off the rails?

>> a lot more "fast money" to come. i know you want to see it. here's what's coming up next. looking into luxury. what the jimmy choo charts are saying about the likelihood a coach deal will get done. and how one of our traders are gearing up. plus, this week's inflation rates sending rates surging. how high could things go? that's next. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this. (grandma) and a million stories to share. (vo) the key to being rich is knowing what counts.

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welcome back to "fast money." shares of capri taking a tumble again today. down 9% in the last week and 30% below the price offered for the company back in august. the drop comes as the ftc reviews the $8.5 billion deal. karen, will the deal get shut down? >> that is a possibility. there's several possibilities. the stock is trading like clearly there is a big issue in the deal, and that big issue is u.s. anti-trust. so, a few things could happen. the deal could go through as it is currently structured. that would be $57 per share in

cash. but they need anti-trust approval to be able to do that. the second thing is that the deal gets restructured in some way that anti-trust concerns and maybe the buyer cuts the price of the deal and capri agrees to that. the third thing is that anti-trust suit and that they prevail. i think in two of those three outcomes, you make money. in the third outcome, you lose. now, the stock was at $35 before the deal. let's say it goes way lower than that, in a broken deem. i'm assuming that it goes substantially lower than that. i do think, though, the stock is saying there is going to be an anti-trust suit. i don't think that will be so shocking to the -- we wake up tomorrow and see that. so, i think a lot of bad news is really priced in. i did what we call sort of a texas hedge. i also bought some tapestry.

in the event that the deal breaks, i think a lot of people thought tapestry overpaid or maybe, you know, it's not worth what it could have been back then. and i think tapestry would go up. >> i don't think that's so much of a texas hedge. i think that's the smartest thing in this situation, because everyone's complaining about the deal. if the deal gets canceled, tapestry, in effect, should go up. the bigger question, why are they both going down? i think everything that you said about the deal not going through, but what about the pvh guide? if you look at pvh on a chart, that's tied into both of their collapses. it's more to do with that. >> so, probably the deal gets restructured -- >> probably gets restructured, but either way, you buy tapestry and that will be a sigh of relief. coming up, just how high will the ten-year yield climb? inflation data this week sending yields soaring and our next guest is eyeing key levels for rates. plus, an old favorite. pops and drops. >> oh. >> it's back. how our traders are handling the moves in nike, robinhood, and

rivian. do not go anywhere. "fast money" is back in two. missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this.

welcome back to "fast money." stocks climbing back from an inflation-fueled selloff. the s&p up three quarters of a percent and the nasdaq surging to a record close for the first time in nearly three weeks, up more than 1.5%. shares of unh lower after a report that the company's chairman and three other execs sold more than $100 million in stock before an anti-trust probe into the company became public. unh received the notice in october, but didn't become public until february. trump media down nearly 50% in april. djt's market cap now under $4.5 billion. car max sliding more than 9% after missing this morning. the company saying it may not meet its long-term sales target. and shares of constellation brands hit an all-time high today on the back of earnings, citing its outperforming beer business. moving onto the interest rate roller coaster. the yield on the ten-year

treasury touching a fresh five-month high today, hitting 4.6% for the first time since mid november. it is up 80 basis points since the end of last year. it hasn't climbed back to that 16-year high above 5%, but with the steady rise this year, have we cleared the path to retest and even surpass those records? our next guest says 5.3% could be in the cards. ben eamons is from new edge wealth. ben, good to see you. >> good to be back. thank you for having me. >> how long does ittake to get to that 5.3%? >> it looks like we're back to where we were in the summer of last year. remember that we had yields starting around 3.75 and there was a lot of supply coming in, stronger economy, everybody starting to reassess the risk of bonds. today at 4.55, but the risk of bonds is again high, so, yesterday, not only that cpi number being hotter and inflation risk is underprice d, but we're dealing with a lot of supply and a federal reserve

that's cautious and maybe has to start shifting its message, saying not only staying on hold, but if we're dealing with more inflation, we're going to have to get ahead of it. there's a lot of pressure under this market, so, i think it could well lead to this 5% level that we saw in the summer of last year. now, the technicals, as i've shown once before, this chart from '07 to now, we made really good support at 61.8 retracement, around 3.5%. we're now above the 67% retracement, which is around 4.25%. so, that leads you to the retracement at the top. the technicals have a lot of power here. i think it's possible to get to that high. >> tim has talked about technicals, but at 30,000 feet, understanding you're looking at the technicals, what do you think it means for the equity world if we get to 5.3%? >> it means pressure. it is a level where treasury yields become restrictive for the economy, and i think that's the assessment for the stock market to say, okay, having the

ten-year yield the same as the fed funds rate, that puts pressure on housing, industrials, on anything that's interest rate sensitive. i think that's going to be a problem for the stock market. >> do you think we'll see something like last summer when we saw the quarterly refunding announcement surprise to the upside, and the cadence of how they would do it? do you think we'll see that show again? >> to some extent. we saw the treasury borrowing advisory economy acommittee, th presentation on the deficit and what they think of supply. it was notable they forecasted t-bill supply to decline, but all the long-term treasury to stay the same, which is large. auctions are 40 billion to 60 billion, then project more supply, but kept it the same, as supply goes down. i think that's the potential of the treasury market. the refunding shows that.

they're scaling back t-bill issuance. the market is going to have to price that in. the fed put out a model on this, it's negative, currently. that is not a good signal, i think, for bonds. >> you talk about in your note also the end carry trade, and for people that don't follow this trade, to help people understand the implications of this, but that you feel this is also another to tepotential on i have treasury. and the move in the yen, which has been -- contrary to what people would have expected, with the end of negative interest rates in japan. >> yeah, you know, the yen going so quickly through 152, no liquidity there, so, they're hesinhes i testing higher. last night, there were comments about officials that is actually in charge to say, boj, go ahead and execute, there's one of those officials that actually said, we're pretty close to doing something, right, we're

ready to act, and the markets just ignored it and go higher, so -- as the yen weakens, there will at some point be this intervention. but what you're really going to likely see is -- >> selling of treasuries to cover that yen short. >> exactly. you're going to see that unwind starting. now, there is two parts, the japaneses that own treasuries that are attached to yen, but foreign investors that own japanese stocks that are hedged to dollars. so, there's real tension here of having a short position in yen, but foreign investors with the domestic investors in japan holding long treasuries. i think that's where, if we are getting this yen intervention, i think this is a pressure point for the treasury market. >> all right, ben, thank you for coming in. good to see you. >> so, what do you think -- what do you think in terms of 5.3%, the impact on equities? so, there's a couple of things. if you want to look at it

through glass is half full, if you look at the large cap tech names, those -- they still have pricing power, they -- and they have a bunch of cash on their balance sheet, so, they're not in any risk. i don't think that -- and they run the market, right? they're a larger percent of the market, the s&p, and the nasdaq. so, with them hanging in, the market hangs in. i don't think they should sell off, because they have a tub of cash, we've seen them become safety bets, and if they're running the entire market and we know where rates are now, we know rates are definitively at some point going lower, they could be higher for longer, but i don't think we're in the game where they're going to raise rates. so, once raising rates is off the table, and the fed leeks at the pce, you're not going to get the spike in car insurance that you had effecting cpi there. i know they took june off the table, i think they still have a shot for june. if not june, it's july. november's off the table, because it's two days after the election. so, that's a moot point at this

point. >> bank of america said one in december, and even that one is a little bit iffy at this point. might be more of a 2025 story. if that's the case, we have auction after auction -- i mean, yesterday's ten-year auction was bad, it was not good. >> it was not good. today's 30 wasn't good. and if you look at the fed fund futures curve, december has 25 bips in it. that's it. in fact, if you look at where we are, you know, june, actually, is three bips above where we are. so, it's a dynamic where you can see what futures are doing. doesn't mean they're right. but it is indicating higher rates. >> interesting, quickly, the president yesterday when asked the question about that, said there will be a rate -- i don't know why he is sort of swimming in those waters, but he put it out there, but i still think it would be -- given everything that i'm seeing, any rate cut this year doesn't make any sense. coming up, we are digging in on a couple of fast movers. nike jumping on a big upgrade. rivian hits its lowest levels ever. should you just do it? pump the brakes on these names?

next. plus, amazon nearly doubling in the last year. what ceo andy jassy said this morning that kicked the tech titan into high gear, right after this. it's payback time. all these years, you've worked hard. you fixed it. you looked after it. maybe it's time for your home to start taking care of you? if you're 62 or older and own your home, a reverse mortgage can put more money in your pocket by eliminating your monthly mortgage payments,

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welcome back to "fast money." time for a look at some of the days pops and drops. three fast movers that caught our eye. starting with nike. that's up more than 3% today after bank of america upgraded it to a buy, literally saying, it's time to just do it. i love analyst humor. nike's estimates look achievable and they see margin expansion for the company. it was nike's best day since november. tim, how are you feeling about this one these days? >> i get it. i get that the multiple's come down substantially, i get, you know, mid single digits is a, you know, we tempered our expectations on nike, and i think second half of '25 is when you're going to see this thing take off again in terms of the earnings growth. i think you could probably own it here. i like it long-term, for sure. i think in a tape that gets a little uglier, i think nike is going to go higher. >> i own some, not a big position, but all the reasons he said. it does deserve a premium multiple, which it has. now it has to earn it. >> do not miss an exclusive

interview with nike's ceo, that is tomorrow, 10:30 a.m. eastern time right here on cnbc. next up, robinhood, analysts at citi downgrading it to a sell, saying most of this year's gains have been because of bitcoin's rally and that the valuations have gotten disconnected from fundamentals. robinhood dropping 3.5% this morning, but rallied to end the day up nearly 4%. guy? >> we call that a tell in the business there, melms. at the poker table, if you don't identify the sucker in 20 minutes -- >> it's you. >> typically you, right? this call, maybe it's interesting, but the fact the stock rallied, understanding the broader tape did, as well. very impressive. stay long the name. >> lastly, rivian. shares of the ev maker dropping 7% today on concerns that price cuts at ford would sap demand for its pickup. ford lowering prices for the f-150 lightning. shares of rivian down 60% this year, trading at the lowest levels since its 2021 ipo.

grasso? >> this is right around that level where rivian did bounce to in the 20s. and when you look at price cuts, i think that price cuts just make people hold off. we start with tesla, where if you bought a tesla and then you had it in your driveway and they cut prices the next month, you felt bad, so -- and if you were going to buy a tesla, you held back. so, if ford's cutting prices, i think people are going to hold back on fords. ri rivian's got some deep pocketed investors, but i like the price level. i would buy it. >> what was your take on the price cut? >> i think it shows possibly ford being a little bit more on offense. you know, again, this is what -- this is what tesla said at one point. we've gotten good news out of ford, in terms of their ev business, and the demand. and their ability to actually deliver honest mates, so, i see this more through the eyes of ford. i'd like to drive a rivian. i might like to own one, but i don't want to own the stock. >> remember, we test drove the tesla a long time ago. >> we had a fun day. >> can we have a race for pinks?

>> if you call rivian, you can't get anyone on the phone. it's a pet peeve i have. i get it, they're an ev company, but you got to have them parked outside the nasdaq. we should be able to jump in them. the fact i can't call and speak to an individual, a human, is a problem. >> touched a nerve. >> a real rant here. >> there are triggers here. >> avoid the triggers from now on. i promise you out there. coming up, amazon's all-time high. ceo andy jassy is weighing in on what he sees out of the nser. those details next. more "fast money" in two.ng a m

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share fastest there, but still at a lower rate than what we see in a healthy economy. >> he touted the steps amazon is taking with prime shipping, same-day and overnight delivery increased 70% year over year. wow. what do you think? >> well, so, it's two completely different parts of the business. both are doing well. even if the consumer is trading down. they just -- i mean, when they talk about the power of that market, it is kind of amazing. you can see how the government would have some issues there. because, i mean, they touch, you know, what he's talked about, 40% of consumers. that is kind of amazing. on the other side, you've got, you know, the cloud, but one thing about that, though, that was interesting, amazon and meta, they're all doing their own chips, you got to wonder, where -- for nvidia, what does that mean? >> i think the most attractive part of the story is still the aws side. and this is the gentleman who built aws, right? so, he had large shoes to fill,

but this is when amazon really got interesting as a tech play. and pre-split price was at 190 bucks. it ripped up to pre-split prices. and the tailwind for me is still the aws, with a.i., you are still going to have the need for a lot more of aws's in infrastructure, and this is the gentleman who built it. i would still put my faith in amazon. >> agreed. stay long into earnings the end of the month. and by 2026-ish, this is probably the first trillion dollars in revenue for a year company at the current trajectory, so, good for amazon. >> i think, you know, this letter to shareholders had a lot in it for everybody. and you have a case where i think they've delivering products at record speed. this is a stock you stay long and this is what's best of the mag seven. >> up next, final trades.

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final trade time. let's go around the horn. tim? >> constellation brands. they beat top line, they have better beer numbers. >> karen? >> yes, as we head into bank earnings tomorrow, i think you want to be long the xlf and short the kre. >> stephen? >> analog devices. adi. just on technicals, but i think it's the fundamental story. >> is he in trouble, by the way? >> i know, i stephen-ed you and i'm going to guy christopher that one over there. >> oh. >> jason playing some tremendous tunes.

by the way, scarsdale high school, all three in the scarsdale hall of fame. >> scarsdale, new york, by the way. >> spr, melms. still goes higher from here. >> thank you for watching "fast money." see you back here tomorrow at 5:00 for more at 5:00. meantime, do not go anywhere. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to elf will the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you a little money. my job is not just to entertain but to educate and teach you so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. or tweet me @jimcramer. faith is hard to come by on wall street. we have a tendency to be jaded. we think we're always being tricked or lie