number in q4 really blew away investors and pointed to the fact that specific things were working, including the crackdown on password sharing. so i think the question now, are they going to keep that up? are they going to continue to see the benefits and are they doing what it takes in terms of ads, et cetera. >> thank you very much. that does it for "overtime." have a great week. i'll see you back from san francisco next week. "fast money" begins right now. >> live from the nasdaq marketsite in the heart of new york city's times square, here is "fast money." a rough start to the month, the dow down more than 4.5% in april. the volatility index soaring to its highest level since october. is this the beginning of the end of the rally? a shining trade. gold hitting another record as investors flock to the safety. how much higher can prices go? later, chips get checked and a warning from china.

starbucks shares go decaf natured and an options trade. . i'm in studio b on the desk tonight. we start off with today's big friday favs. stocks closing with a sharp sell-off, the s&p and nasdaq falling around 1.5%. the major indices all on pace to break five-month winning streaks. volatility surging, passing the 19 handle today. it was at 13 at the start of the month. rates spiked after this week's hot inflation data, the ten-year yield soaring before pulling back today. the latest cloud, banks striking a cautious tone as results start to come in. jpmorgan's ceo, jamie dimon warning of the triple threat, and larry fink saying the central bank may miss its inflation target. the kbe on track for its worst month. all of this as q1 earnings

season gets started and investors embrace for an attack between israel and iran. tim, what do you say? >> it really is the geopolitical climate that is part of where we closed the week. and we've said this. those boxes you check when you're filling out the survey, what keeps you up most at night, it's not necessarily 21 times forward on the s&p. it's geopolitics. i'll leave aside the analysis politically and socially of iran potentially invading israel. what that means, look at the dollar move. the dollar has rallied in the last two days. the price in oil and -- and oil prices, iran and israel means oil higher for longer. we talk about interest rates higher for longer. it was as bad of a day as markets have seen since january. you brought up the vix. the fact it's up more year to date than semiconductors, and i'm sure carter has a view of semis.

you look at a day like today and you look at where they are now, they're down about 5% over the last month relative to the s&p, which they've led forthe last two and a half years. so a very big market day and i think geopolitics led the charge. >> the vix has been sleepy for so long. to see it surge like this on a friday seems more unusual. >> the move from 13 to 18 has been aggressive and it's been, to me, long overdue. we've waited to see how long we can continue to grind high on, yes, some improvement in earnings, but real legitimate price-to-earnings expansion. i think it's just a matter of time. frankly, to answer your question, do i think this is the beginning of a trend or start of a counter-trend, at least at things stand, it's a relatively healthy situation for us to see some increase in protection buying, some increase in volatility. being that the narrative around rates being stable has started to shift and you start to see the push-off from june to september.

so seeing nothing in light of the geopolitical risks that tim mentioned, i think this makes sense and probably it sets up for more of a healthy market. >> we've come a long way. everybody knows this and everyone has been waiting and watching. at what point does the thing pause? we know from that october low to present, we're talking about a six-month move. there are only three time frames, minor, intermediate and major. this is an intermediate move that's mature. it's not just the s&p and it's not ai. caterpillar is up, american express is up, so companies that have no ai have appreciated to such an extent and levels that you're due for what would be something corrective. it's incorrect if you keep going like this. we're in the process of correcting. >> i always feel smarter when you're on the desk. >> i feel more dumb when he's on the desk. >> etymology. >> that's probably the first

time it's been used on the show. a sell-off, spas opposed to a rally in earnings season. >> the setup for jpmorgan was so pristine, they were the head of all financials, and they ran into earnings where they were just jumping hurdles left and right. so i think you're right, you want to have a pullback. this was a confluence of events. it's on a friday. people de-risk on a friday. you have iran coming up. we have ukraine, russia. everyone has forgotten about that. we have china supporting russia in ukraine. we've become numb to that. this is definitely more sensitive an issue. if this escalates to a point where it involves the entire region, then it's something to really concentrate on, but when we're just taking that out of it, let's see where we are on monday. let's see, hopefully nothing

escalates this weekend and we can get back to just looking at the market in a prism or through that prism. but if it does escalate, oil, semiconductors -- because now people start talking about everything, people start talking about china and taiwan on the back of this as well. because there's going to be an awful lot of things going on. i think you're right, if the market can pull back, the 50 day moving average and s&p is 5111. we got there, bounced a little bit, and at this point that's the level where carter is talking about, do you check it, do you break that level? and then people will start talking about, okay, where are the next levels below 5,000. if we break 5,000 to the downside, that catches everyone's attention. we're in a political year. i still think the market is okay. >> i mean, let's talk about jpmorgan, you talk about somebody who does movie rentals or sneakers. jpmorgan is a different animal and it dropped hard today.

why? maybe earnings, but maybe because it was up 50% from the s&p is up 20%, and you speak about valuations. >> it's probably around 1.5%. and the other thing we heard about jpmorgan is their net interest income, which i thought they were going to tell us was robust, higher rates is good, and it is. but they have higher funding costs. this is what we heard from other banks. higher rates also extract a price. and i think, getting back to rates, let's talk about the other big elephant in the room, it was rates. it was the third consecutive dud on the cpi number, which puts the fed on hold. every fed governor and their brother was out there after jerome powell kind of backtracking in terms of what they have to do or maybe not. certainly putting it on pause. so we got to a place whereby the end of this week, this is not where we started. we are firmly in september consensus. whether that happens, i don't know. but if you're getting to a place

where if at some point in the next poor inflation print we get to a sense where the fed's next pivot is maybe a rate hike or two -- and i realize that's absurd to say, but you can be sure equities haven't priced that in. we question whether they priced in zero cuts. >> i don't think they have. zero. that will be the next step, right? we're not that faraway from pricing in zero when a lot of banks on the street are going to just go to one in december. >> i don't think you're at 2021 times forward earnings, assuming there weren't going to be any rate cuts. i don't think that's sustainable if this narrative follows through, that it's looking more and more likely that that will be the case. the last thing i'll say is i really think the last thing that the consumer or federal reserve really wants to see is sustained commodity prices. that's stripped out in terms of

the cpix and we're talking about some of the inflationary prices. at least from a consumer standpoint and their ability to continue to prop this economy up, if we really start to see that trickle-down effect to prices at the pump, when we're not seeing relief in housing, i don't think that bodes well. >> to tim's point, this is the first time since 2021 that jpmorgan is seeing net interest income shrink or come in a little bit. that caught the market off guard. let's remember, yesterday the market was up. it was dealing with rates. today the market is down. to me, if you have to give a percentage, 80% of this was geopolitical. so it was just risk taking off the table. monday, tuesday, let's see how it shakes out. but i don't think that this is going to be a year without any rate cuts. i do believe we're still going to get three rate cuts this year. >> if there's no attack monday, are we up? that's your thesis? >> if there's an ongoing dialogue, we don't know what that -- if we're in the same place we are rightnow.

yes, if there's no attack and the dialogue gets better and the rhetoric is better and softer, then the market rips higher. >> i think the jpmorgan, that's not geopolitics. this is a rich market and you've got to be priced for perfection and then still raise and guide. if you don't, we've seen it, lululemon, we've seen a drop in gap. >> i'm more worried about mega cap tech, where this market is led. that's got the biggest concentration. the s&p will go where mega cap tech goes. >> ahead of earnings season, in light of these gaps because of run-ups into earnings, in light of the geopolitical, is mega cap tech still defensive? >> i think it is. again, we heard some interesting comments from andy jassy yesterday that indicate that there's also more earnings power possibly in these names from investments they've made. but i think we've seen, time and time again, mega tech being

defensive. that move in jpmorgan is extraordinary. on a day citi rose. >> i don't think either net interest guidance was particularly rosy. i think jpmorgan, as you mentioned, i think you said 1.5%. i think it trades at 1.6. ! just from an valuation standpoint, i agree with carter, we're in a situation where this next earnings cycle and the subsequent one are going to be paramount. because we're no longer here saying that credit -- sorry that funding conditions, financing conditions are going to ease. this is going to be about is the e portion sustainable and leading us to growth going forward. if not, i do not think we sit here at 21 forward earnings in

the foreseeable future. let's talk about the rising tensions in the middle east. the "wall street journal" reporting that the u.s. is moving warships off the shores of israel among a warning that an iranian attack is imminent. president biden moving iran against any move saying, quote, don't. brent oil is back above $90 a barrel. how will this all shake out? let's ask former nato supreme allied commander, general wesley clark. great to have you with us. thank you. what do you think is going to happen? because it seems that iran doesn't want this to get out of hand. nobody wants this to get out of hand. and yet these things tend to. >> well, obviously we picked up indications that iran is making preparations to do something. now, if it's at the military level or political level, but does iran really want a confrontation directly with israel? iran is moving toward atomic or

nuclear weapons capacity. some people say they've already got a couple. others say it may be another three or four months. if iran strikes israel, israel is going to go right back at that nuclear capacity, everything they've identified, and the ayatollah is going to lose everything they've worked for. besides, iran is kind of a basket case internally. they're taking away people's social security, there's high inflation. some of the soldiers, not the revolutionary guard, but ordinary soldiers are refusing to work because they're not getting paid. so they're in no position to start a big war. on the other hand, israel would probably welcome a chance to go in and take out the iranian nuclear facilities, because they know that once that comes in, it's an entirely different game in the middle east.

the united states doesn't want the ex clescalation, but israels not going to trust the united states if iran strikes, because look at what's happening in gaza right now with the pressure between the united states and israel. but bottom line on this is, if iran does something, my instinct is that it's going to be something relatively minor, something indirect, something the iranians can cheer about, but not something that could be directly attributed to iran. maybe a strike on an embassy somewhere by some unknown terrorist group, something like that. if they really strike israel, you will have escalation, and iran will definitely be the loser. >> general clark, it's tim seymour. it's an honor to have you here. refresh, u.s. strategy here, especially as it relates to our relationship with israel, it's getting more complicated. obviously iran brings a different element. the u.s. doesn't want to see this, nobody wants to see this. can you refresh your perspective

on the strategy on israel in the middle east? >> for the united states, the idea is to continue to reassure israel, we've got your back, you don't have to do anything. let's get this situation in gaza settled. don't go into south lebanon, don't make the problem any bigger. that's the american perspective. and for the israeli perspective, they see it as an existential crisis. they cannot let hamas come out as a winner. they've still got a problem in south lebanon with the iranians and the clock is ticking on iranian nuclear capacity, which changes everything. so israel sees it very differently than the united states does at this point, and yet israel knows it must have u.s. support. it must have the friendship of washington. >> yeah, and president biden said just this afternoon that the u.s. is devoted to israel's defense. general, i'm wondering, if iran really does attack in a small

way, as you hope or anticipate, does that mean that israel does not go after iranian nuclear assets. >> probably won't go after the iranian nuclear assets unless there's a direct strike on israel or attributable to an embassy in the region. if iran uses a missile and gets through or something. but the houthis are already firing missiles and drones at israel and israel has taken them out. if you're the iranians, the revolutionary guard may be thri thirdsting to go after israel, but if you've got any common sense, not so smart. let's don't do this. iran has to feel like they're kind of winning right now. they've got the united states and israel at odds, hamas has survived. you've got the whole world down on the israelis for what's going on in gaza.

this was part of the plan. this was the plan from the beginning for hamas, to draw the israelis in and then accuse them of creating a humanitarian catastrophe. that's what the world sort of sees right now. and so if you're the iranians, why shake the tree? let it play out. so that's me trying to think like they might think. i would be very worried about what's happening inside iran with the people, the economy. i would look at the united states. i would say, look, we're winning. why do this? find a way to do something so we can maintain face, but don't get into a big escalation with israel right now. wait until we get our nuclear capacity. >> do you think by monday we'll have more clarity about the situation between iran and israel? >> we will if iran does something minor. but i think this could drag for a few days. there's no pressure on the

iranians necessarily that i see to go and finish this for the news cycle or weekend. there's no pressure at all. if they think they've got pressure between the united states and israel, they've got friction between the united states and israel, they've got greater pressure for the united states to force israel to do a cease-fire in gaza, they'll let it play out. one thing we've seen about the mullahs, they've got patience, they're smart, sly, they work indirectly. i don't know that we'll have clarity by monday. >> general clark, thank you so much for joining us. we do appreciate your time. >> thank you. >> general wesley clark. do we see a continued flight to the safety trades we saw in today's session? do we see a bid for bonds, for the dollar, for gold? do we see that continue? >> i think you see all of that continue. i think you see oil trade up. it's not going to matter. the u.s. is self-sufficient in oil but the perception is reality.

you see all of the risk off or risk on trades still happen and be precipitously happening throughout the entire market this whole week. hopefully we get something more than just rhetoric for the next two days, we get something that has some closure involved in it. or else you'll see gold run, oil run and the s&p slide. >> trends in the dollar and rates and oil, we've had them all year. it's been a trend to higher. this news is part of a bigger mosaic, and it doesn't end no matter what happens. shares of amd and in tell getting hit on reports that china is looking to phase out chips. plus, the retail etf closing in on a drop this month. is this a sign the consumer is finally cracking? we'll debate that. this is "fast money," with melissa lee, right here on cnbc.

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welcome back to "fast money." u.s. chipmakers intel and amd down on reports that china is cracking down on the use of

foreign chips. the "wall street journal" reporting that china is ordering its major tcarriers to stop usig them by 2027. china is america's biggest market, accounting for 27% of market last year, amd owes 15% of its 2023 sales to the chinese market. what do the charts look like? >> we know that semis were a great leader and now they've been under pressure before the market got under pressure. it's worth noting, and this is the thing that's so confounding, semis in the past eight weeks were able to get back to relative highs from the dot com peak. it took 24 years to break even. i think you want to be not embracing the weakness when you can buy a dip or stay away from it. i would stay away from it. >> it surprises me to hear reports about china looking to take out american semis. you always sort of assume that

maybe they didn't allow it in the first place, and yet here we are, they do exist, they are going to order these carriers to take them out. what does that mean? at some point do we start thinking, let's take the china market out? what are these stocks worth without a china market or a substantially smaller china market? >> i think you definitely think along those lines. we talked about that with apple previously, we've talked about that as it pertains to nike. and taiwan semi, some of the geopolitical risks. it only makes sense that we start to strip out some of that revenue or discount it by some increasing margin. listen, i think in terms of the intel story, i think the bullish case is really about kind of like the reshoring of manufacturing, foundry type of business. i think valuation as well, although you've seen that creep up from low teens to mid-20s. but i think the bull case is really about them completely reinventing themselves and where they fit in terms of semiconductors. amd, i do think,has gotten

caught up a bit more in terms of the ai revolution and a lot of the more domestic issues that are going on. so i do worry there. i think that one trades around 45, 46 times forward. i wouldn't be surprised to see more air come out of the balloon. >> the bullish part of the story in terms of foundries, they just said they're going to have losses. that wasn't bullish, either. at what point do you say, this is going to take too long, this turnaround? >> they provided at least initial details on their product release and their foundry, their re-segmentation and they told you it isn't going to be pretty any time soon. and that was april 3rd, i think it was april 2nd, maybe after the close. since then, the stock is down 25%. i joked, kind of laughed at myself, possibly. i've traded intel around. i've certainly been long on this

move. i think at this point you've taken out a lot of that bad news. but i'm sure carter will point out if we get more pullback, maybe semis will lead that. i think they're all going to suffer and they're still up 26%, 27% year-to-date as a group. higher rates will send them lower. >> carter started off, qualcomm, 59% of revenue from china or thereabouts, broadcom, marvel 48%. you flashed up intel at the beginning of the story. that seems like it's light compared to all these other ones and i think they got a pass. when you saw the story, they mentioned intel and amd. these are the ones you have to be concerned with more. >> here is what's coming up next. crackness in the consumer. the chart careening toward precarious levels and where it's headed next coming up. plus, gold's gleaming gains. the precious metal hitting another all-time high. what's fueling the rally and how

long can the good times roll? we'll shine a light on that and much more next. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq marketsite in times square. in times square. we're back right after this. ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪ ("three little birds" by bob marley & the wailers) ♪ ♪♪ discover our newest resort sandals saint vincent and the grenadines, now open. visit sandals.com or call 1—800—sandals.

welcome back to "fast money." retail getting hammered again today. the etf crossing below its 100 day moving average. it is off 9% this month. the biggest laggards include carvana, foot locker slumping almost 6%, dollar general, kohl's and target taking it on the chin. one of the ugliest charts, lululemon, tumbling 34% so far this year. the athleisure maker off 4% today, its lowest since last may. >> and certainly lulu is a name i've been watching from a short side and i think it could go lower. if you look at the chart, i think 300 is within sights. jeffries has a fascinating note, a note that compares, but it says this looks a little to them like under armour. the brand is slipping, competition. a couple of missteps, strategic missteps and this happens at a peak multiple.

they're saying maybe you could be in mid-teens. this was 135-ish. i think an incredible brand, still a company i think you want to own at a lower price. but that's a fascinating argument. ubiquity is something you don't want in this space. >> it's a free fall, down 35%. at some point, and i think we're close, it's so bad it's good. so even if it goes lower on a six or nine month basis, it passes through a higher price. i would tactically take that approach. >> so what level? >> i would do it here. you can do it through options, for instance. >> we've never heard of that. >> i'm kind of inclined to wait, although i do still believe in the name. i have a hard time drawing parallels to under armour. i think that has been misstep after misstep and they were at the forefront and able to take a bit of market share from nike.

i think they got off sides in terms of that. lululemon is still very much, the acquisition notwithstanding, it's associated with being a premium brand. you're starting to see that it's still very popular with the younger generation. you've started to see some of those trends not hold up with the foot lockers and undere armours. >> i had a conversation with someone who said bell bottoms are coming back and you don't want a tapered leg. >> what kind of client? >> they're coming back and the tapered look is going to be out. >> you don't think lululemon can shift? >> exactly. this is what it's come down to, bell bottoms? >> i'm kind of happy that bell bottoms are coming bark. >> things got too tapered. >> i said it last night, pvh guide, that spooked the market.

granted, you've seen the momentum to the downside. it's competition. you have a lot of private companies that are doing the same stuff. when lulu came out with men's clothes, everyone thought, oh, they're going to double their revenue, right? >> target market, for sure. >> exactly. and now people are replicating that in the private world, and there's plenty of spots that you can go and get the same thing. gold hitting another record as stocks close out a losing week. we'll debate whether the commodity can keep rising. plus, a who's who of earnings kickoff next week. we'll break down how the options market is positioning around the results right after this. missed a moment of fast? catch us on the go. follow the fasmot ney podcast. we're back right after this.

welcome back to "fast money." a tough day for stocks to close out a big week of losses. the dow losing 475 points. it had been down nearly 600 at lows. the s&p falling nearly 1.5% and the nasdaq closing out a

three-week losing streak nearly 2% lower. apple bucking the trend, it was up more than 4% this week. meanwhile, globe life shares bouncing back somewhat from its 50% plus drop yesterday. that after a scathing short report from fuzzy panda research that alleged multiple accounts of insurance fraud. globe life has refuted the allegations. boeing shares down every trading day in april. that's its longest losing streak since 2018. finally, moves in the metals. copper ticking higher, silver dropping almost half a percent and gold reversing into the red after hitting yet another all-time high today. the sprott physical gold trust is up as investors lean into the commodity. the fund offers a way to hold the physical metal. demand is so strong, people are flocking to costco. a recent wells fargo report estimating the warehouse store selling as much as $200 million worth of gold bars a month.

let's bring in sprott's firm ceo. great to have you with us. >> great to be back. >> i guess costco shoppers are buying gold, but it's really central banks that are doing most of the buying. do you see the trend continuing? >> we've seen a meaningful shift, i would say, over the last 18 months or so, where central banks around the world are starting to increase their percentage of gold as part of their foreign reserves. china is clearly leading the way there. they have a voracious appetite to add more gold. we think this is part of a trend going on. it's not just china, we've seen central banks in turkey, singapore, as well as poland, they've been big buyers of gold over the last two years. >> do you think that the gold miners need to catch up and do you think they'll catch up to the degree where it will match the rise we've seen in gold? or do you think the central bank forces are so strong it makes

the physical asset more advantageous. >> well, we often will tell our clients that you have to think about gold and gold miners in two different buckets. gold has a very unique set of attributes that it brings to a portfolio. and clearly it's acting as a financial asset for the central banks around the world. gold miners, obviously, provide a lot of operating leverage and optionality to higher gold price and historically in bull markets they have outperformed. the last couple of years i would say they've lagged, and that's just really because there's been a very strong underpinning of gold buying support by central banks and we haven't seen that same kind of support from institutional and retail investors for gold stocks. part of that was because, i think, profit margins were under pressure as inflation had eroded some of their profitability. but we definitely in the last six weeks or so have seen gold stocks perform much better, and i think that's a healthy sign there's some appetite returning. >> john, it's tim. thanks for joining us.

i guess the institutional part of this move, i think, also, is something that should be emphasized. the price in gold is what analyst create a lot of models for and mechanically you have to see upgrades, even more miners, based upon this. get back to the core investors that have been following sprott forever and investing in your funds. it seems to me this gold move is so underrepresented by institutions. can you speak to that? >> you raise a really good point. i would say that overall if you take a look at how gold is positioned right now across portfolios, it's at a very low amount, very low percentage. and it doesn't take a lot of rebalancing from different asset classes in gold to really move the price. i think that's what we're seeing with central banks. they seem to be, as our market strategist recently wrote, totally price insensitive to the gold price. they keep buying when it's available. when you think about

institutional investors, the best barometer for their interest and demand for gold is in etfs and we track those every day. they've been a net redemption globally for the last year or so, which tells us that institutional investors are really not interested in gold. now, that's starting to change a little. we've seen some green chutes. even our physical gold trust, we raised over $35 million of new capital. we'll be buying gold on monday. i would say it's really been eastern investors, including chinese retail investors that have really been underpinning the demand, and western investors have largely ignored this rally, which we think over time, especially if we start to see some heightened geopolitical risks, we're going to see a shift back to the safe haven. >> do you think that's just the geopolitical risks that will categorize institutional investors to buy gold? historically is an allocation in terms of the gold market,

western institutional investors typically have allocated this much to gold and right now they are at this level? >> if you look at those numbers, we think it's somewhere in the sub 2% range in terms of overall allocation. at the height of the last bull market it was somewhere close to 8%. we're way off of those cyclical highs. it doesn't take a lot of capital to start moving around buckets, and i think the safe haven element of gold, if we have an escalation in middle east tensions or whatever, that's clearly going to be, i think, one of the catalysts that will bring more western money back into gold. >> john, thanks for your time. great to speak with you. you had an interesting chart today, carter, that you blasted to clients and us folks. >> yeah, i was just looking at gold versus s&p. they're in a dead heat, 27 years later. i think all of the efforts to buy and sell the market, and yet gold, which is sort of a little

bit ridiculed, has kept up with the s&p for 27 years. a couple of things, if you added up the entire market cap of all stocks in the philadelphia gold and silver index, it's like $270 billion. it's a very small area of the market. the leverage that can kick in from operating businesses, and you'll note over the past month, gdx is up 12%, gld up 8%. >> tim, you've been pounding the table on gold for some time. thinking about the 2% allocation going to a historic 8%, that's amazing. >> it's important. i'm long sprott as a stock. i think there's other ways to play this. and back to china, gold reserves are the lowest of any central bank in asia. they're probably around 6%, the average is around 20%. they have the third largest reserves in the world. they have a lot of work to do. but the institutional under-investment i think is

fascinating. >> coming up, netflix, taiwan semi, united airlines and plenty of names reporting next week. we'll take a deep dive into the options market and find out how traders are gearing up. plus, commodity prices putting the squeeze on starbucks. we'll debate whether the coffee chain with burrew up a turnarou. we'll have a live update sunday night and get you set up for the week ahead. that is sunday 6:00 p.m., live that is sunday 6:00 p.m., live on cnbc.com.ng magic.

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welcome back to "fast money." earnings season heats up next week with goldman sachs, united health, proctor & gamble among those reporting results. we wanted to hone in on united airlines and netflix. carter has the charts. mike will join us with a trade, options trade. netflix reports thursday after the close. carter, what do you see? >> let's get right to it. chart, so let's look at netflix first. what we know is this is a stock that, unlike so many, has yet to recoop losses of the bear market

of 2022. the presumption is it will make it back and i'm playing the long side. >> mike, the trade on netflix? >> outperformed today. obviously was down a little bit but outperformed the sector. it's obviously trading at a decent multiple of about 36 times earnings and growing about as fast. i think we want to use a calendar. i was looking at the april and july 650 call calendar. take advantage of the elevated premium, the options market, about an 8% move next week after they report. >> let's move to united airlines. shares are struggling to take off amid a string of safety incidents. carter, what's the next move from here? >> struggling to take off. let's look at the chart. it's sideways. i would say it's not worth doing. but the short-term chart -- the longer-term chart has risk. airlines in general, you look at the new york stock exchange

airline index, it's unchanged for 25 years. >> mike, what's the trade? >> i would rather known delta. we do own delta. but we don't own united air. this expecting a move of about 8%, well above the average. i want to take advantage of the elevated premium. i was looking at a put calendar, the april 39 and july 39 calendar, about $1.50 and that's a way to play a sideways move or a move to the strike place, down about 6% or 7% from here. >> which do you like? >> i like the call calendar. i like when mike takes advantage of a spike in short-term volatility and has the opportunity to roll if you get a move in the stock or see another spike from unprecedented geopolitical risks. >> tim, actually, your pick because you have both, right? >> i don't. i sold netflix a little too soon. i would be on the long side.

united, i think you're going to see downgrades here based upon higher fuel prices and lower anticipated capacity. i continue to think airlines are trading stocks and i think history shows that, even though delta has been a long-term long for me and i stay long. >> you've got to go with airlines thathave zero exposure to the 737 max. delta has zero exposure to them. united has exposure. american has exposure. that's the way i would gauge it when you're dealing with airlines. netflix, the chart looks like it's rolling over for the first time in a very long time. and it always surprises you with that spike higher. but i think the tailwinds at a certain point, everyone, even the bulls, would agree on netflix, that at a certain point it's got to take a rest. >> does the delta chart look better than united? >> much better, yeah. not even close. >> a pair of jacks? >> yeah, a pair of jacks. >> i don't know what that means, but that's better, apparently. coming up, feeling the grind.

starbucks getting roasted as coffee prices soar to highs. should you ditch the dark roast 'ldetethere more? wel ba that when "fast money" returns.

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welcome back to "fast money." starbucks continuing its slide today, dropping about 1%. the stock is now down 7% this month and more than 11% this year. the plunge comes as coffee prices surge, nearly 1.5% today, their highest since september 2022. other coffee stocks, like j.m. smucker and dr. pepper slipping today as well. starbucks may have other problems than just the high price of coffee beans at this point. so where do we stand on starbucks? >> so the way i look at it, i go back to coffee chart where coffee was higher than where it is now, and then i look at where starbucks was at that point. so there's always that lead and lag with the stock price versus the underlying commodity, and as you said before, starbucks has a host of other issues that might be causing the decline in price. when you look at just strictly where coffee was when it was higher, starbucks price was

around $71, $72. >> deutsche bank had a survey on the issue of price, not the stock, but the coffee itself. they said among 45% of customers bu bu buying, people are sick and tired of playing $7 or whatever for a latte, the expensive drink and that's finally catching up. >> i'll never buy a latte, but a good old-fashioned coffee that costs $4.75, that costs $2.80 pre-covid. it's absurd, i think, what they've done. i think there's an expectation that you're going to see eps guidance, a cut, and there's a combination of things. you've got higher input costs that includes labor. they've had some very significant labor dynamics within starbucks, the unionization concerns and certainly higher prices. but i think you're going to see lower margins and a company that -- look, i love starbucks, the stock, i love the product. i go there all the time. i'm frustrated. but i think you're going to buy

it lower. >> seasonally, the spring and summer are better times because they're more dependent on cold drinks with better margins and people want cold drinks starting now. so that could be an offset. >> yeah, it's trading around a 52-week low. you mentioned the seasonality. also, if you look back at earnings, 'srangrey it tdi ptt much at a historical low. >> up next, final trades. go deeper with thinkorswim: our award-wining trading platforms. unlock support from the schwab trade desk, our team of passionate traders who live and breathe trading. and sharpen your skills with an immersive online education crafted just for traders. all so you can trade brilliantly.

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sp spurj exists. >> steve? >> i think it was a fun show given that we had a terrible day in the markets. cck, crown holdings. >> that's fine. thanks for watching "fast money." have a great weekend. see you backer he on monday. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market summer, and i promise to help you find it. mad mon starts now. >> hey, i'm cramer. my job is to teach, and i'm going to do a lot of teaching tonight. call me at 1-800-743-cramer. you need t