>> choppy day of trade today. especially after fed chair powell made those comments, s saying hard to find reasons to cut, but ended near the lows. >> yeah. tomorrow, beige book, and in this hour, you've got a number of industrial companies that are going to be reporting, bhp, csx, to get a sense of the industrial part of the economy, that's going to do it for us here at "overtime." >> "fast money" starts now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. a bank bifurcation. shares moving in vastly different directions since earnings season kicked off. how should you read into the results and what do they say about the state of the market? plus, 34-year lows. japan's currency trading at levels not seen since new kids on the block were topping the charts. will the yen keep moving lower step by step? and why does it matter? and later, united health keeps the dow in the green.

lvmh shoppers tighten their purse strings, and bitcoin, is it heading even lower from here? i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. on the desk tonight -- carter worth, karen finerman, dan nathan, and tim seymour. we start off with the post earnings divergence in the big banks. consumer-facing names under pressure. bank of america among the biggest laggards, dropping 3.5%, despite a beat. the money center pinched by higher interest rates, which drove first quarter profit lower. that follows jpmorgan which forecast lower than expected interest income through the end of 2024. those shares off by more than 7% since reporting on friday. but it hasn't been all bad news for financials. with investment banks seeing strength. morgan stanley today closing 2.5% higher after its biggest earnings beat in three years. wealth management boosting those results. as we mentioned, goldman saw trading investment banking surge. those shares down today, but still up after the report yesterday. so, what are the banks telling

us? a mixed message here, but the results side of it andthe stock reaction side of it which may not necessarily reflect the same story. >> yeah, wealth management fees, right, and those are balances. and there's net interest margin to be earned there. so, i think the bifurcation is really interesting. the other money centers that don't have the exposure of a morgan stanley. they have spent ten years die diversifying away from that business. maybe they were, like, not great expectations, if you will, but they did really well, and you could say to yourself, if you see the economy the way at least the market sees the economy, then some of the businesses that they're exposed to should do better in the back half of this year. we know there's a few ipos that got the calendar going a little bit. we know there was some m&a. we also know the ipo calendar comes back, there's a dual track. so, i see what investors see in goldman and morgan. as far as the money centers,

they've come a long way. look at the outperformance that jpmorgan had over the last, let's call it six months from the october lows. and if you are in a higher for longer environment, it's just not going to be as good for them. >> well, i think for jp morgan, it can be good, but one of the big disappointments from their earnings call was the expectation of further compression, or more compression. the quarter itself was fine, but that's not relevant anymore. it was about the future of compression of the nim. so, i think they are also very conservative. so, fixed income was good. b wealth management across the board. also, to dan's point, i like jpmorgan, as much the day before, as i liked it, you know, much lower, but i think there was just expectations too high, wasn't a crazy multiple or anything, but you know, it's down one multiple turn now from there, because the multiple is pretty low. so, i sort of like them across the board.

wait to stay in this long big money center, and short carry. >> and the setup has been your thesis in terms of, it was too steep. >> too steep. citi up 60 some percent. all stocks have an october low, regardless of sector or type. and this group up 40%, 50%, goldman and morgan stanley really hadn't done that much. there is, of course, the investment bank and broker sub industry group has been outperforming since the '09 low. morgan stanley, right now, is $90. you know what it was at the dot com peak? $90. so, 24 years later, unch. that's losing 60% of your value adjusted for inflation. >> tim, what was your take? and how do you factor in, you know, powell actually spelling out the fact that it will be higher for longer? >> well, i'm troubled by the -- we referenced new kids on the block for the first time on "fast money." i know we're hanging tough and

taking this step by step, but -- you know, my view on money center banks is that a 10% to 11% move, really by jpmorgan, citi, bank of america, all since their peak a couple days before earnings is a function of, i think, more carter's view on things and just where we've come from. i didn't hear anything in jpmorgan's numbers that concerned me. i will say, the securities losses are something that i think people will start to pay more attention on now that rates continue to move higher. karen pointed out that income margins are lower, forecast lower, i think that's disappointing, and dan and everyone has talked about asset management. in terms of powell, i'm kind of surprised the market didn't do even more destruction to equities on those comments. i mean, i just feel like -- not only has the fed dialed back an overly dovish fed meeting that i certainly was critical of, i think you have a dynamic here between where -- when he's talking about inflation really not giving any ground, that's an

inflation that's above their 2% target. a 2% target they haven't hesitated to say is very much still in play, so -- i thought today's powell comments were significant and i think the bond market told you what you wanted. i think you're getting this -- this bearish flattener, which means that short rates are coming up faster than the long end is coming up, though we're focused on the ten-year. and that's part of where we are. we're reassessing where the short end of the curve is going to be, not just short-term, but maybe even medium term at least as we get into 25. >> brian moynihan just talked about that policy and loan growth this afternoon on "the closing bell." here's what he had to say. >> year over year, up 1% long growth. that's fine, but we expect to see more. with the economy running this strong, you'd expect to see more, but i think it has to do with general borrowing conditions still muted. higher mortgage rates slow down the borrowing process there. >> so, whatare we learning about the actual economy?

>> well, it's interesting. jamie dimon has been telegraphing this, and we've been talking about jamie dimon versus brian moynihan, going back to that situation, a storm is coming and all that sort of stuff and moynihan kind of clapping back at jamie. i think what's clear, if you are choosing your fighter, it's jamie dimon. i know you already chose it long ago. it's interesting to me, when i think about jpmorgan's stock and where it was just a couple m months ago, it was at $220 -- >> it got to 200. >> jpmorgan? >> yeah. >> okay, 200. so, 200 down here to 180. down 10%. excuse me, sorry. so, just think about that, it's taking out a little bit of the froth. so, when we think is about the economy, to answer your question, okay , so, with saw yields go to where they are right now. a half of a percent or so move. the outlook for the economy has been okay. all the data, that's part of the problem. one of the reasons why yields have moved the way they are.

jamie dimon has said, you know, expect rates much higher than here, or possibly. and so, i think the stuff that he's doing and the cautious optimism that he has about the economy, he's preparing his bank for a more difficult environment, but also execute really well in a good environment, too, so, i don't know, i'm with you, like, if this thing comes back to, let's say, $170, i think it's probably a slam dunk of a guy, especially relative to a lot of its money center peers. >> one thing bank of america today, it was a tick up of, it wasn't huge, it wasn't a disaster, anything like that, but just a tick upin credit quality. and it's been very, very good for a long time, so, but you wonder, all right , is that the change? and we're heading -- >> to quality. >> right. >> or in terms of the fico scores being higher? >> no, the chargeoffs -- >> yeah. >> nonperforming loans. it's been so good for a long time, you know it can't stay that way forever. the magnitude of this move in itself alone was really not anything concerning. it's just a question of, are we

really going to see pendulum swing? >> you asked about the message from the banks to the economy. the message from retailers is completely different. we've got that xrt down down almost 12% with this dropping and gapping every day. another one of the prominent names falls on its earnings results. you know, the higher for longer, it gets down to that. are we really going above 5%? we shall see, but my hunch is that rates are not going much higher. >> all right. former fdic chair sheila bair is joining us with more. it's as great to see you. >> nice to see you. thank you for having me. >> i understand you think the big banks are largely in good shape, nothing to worry about here, but even with the economy pretty strong still, you are worried about the regional banks. what do you think is that shoe that's going to drop there? >> well, i think -- i'm worried about a handful of them. i think some of them are still a really -- have a lot of

concentrated commercial real estate exposure, and i think the larger picture, really, is the potential instability of their uninsured deposits, even for the healthy ones, if we have another bank failure. as i said before, i think congress should reinstate the fdic transaction's guarantee authority so it can stabilize those deposits. congress isn't doing much of anything these days, so, wait in line. so, i think this is still a problem, and funger fingers cro there's another failure. >> the ten-year yield, some forecasting it to go to 4.8%. does that concern about regionals and the exposure to commercial real estate, does that heighten? >> yeah, well -- part of the problem for real estate is that a lot of it is refinancing this year and next, so, the higher the rates go for those refinancings, the more distress there will be with borrowers to continue with their payments. with cre, we had this problem during the great financial

crisis. there are things you can do, there are workout strategies, you know, some people call it extended -- you don't want to do that. if the borrowers cook, the borrowers cook. but a lot can get through with some active workout strategies. so, i still think it's a slow burn over time. and again, the big issue is whether there's another shock to uninsured deposits because of the bank failure, and i think this is the biggest challenge confronting regionals right now. >> sheila, it's tim. thank you for joining us. i share your view that the big money center banks are in a very different balance sheet place. i guess if we're worried about commercial real estate, when i think of the sheer size of the cer m cre market, we're not even close. and this is where -- i'm not sure people understand -- not you, of course, but the world of -- of everybody who is assessing credit and the potential domino effect from where cre could go, especially if rates have to go another 100

basis points higher, and in that world, don't the money center banks have exposure to regional banks? >> well, first of all, the money center banks do have their own significant commercial real estate exposure. it's not a concentration for them, so, there's less focus on it, but yeah, i mean, i think -- i have to say, though, i think that the big megabanks benefit regional banks distress. are you suggesting there's going to be some knock-on impact if there's going to be a string of failures? i think it helps then. the business goes there. that's where it goes. their view is too big to fail. i know the fdic is committed to too big to fail and determined to use the resolution authorities they have, the big bank got into trouble. but the market doesn't believe that, so, no, i think regional bank distress benefits the big money center banks, there's no doubt in my mind. >> sheila, it's karen, thank you for being on. a question about basil three end game. do you think it went too far?

and how do you -- where do you think it shakes out? >> well, i think -- yeah, i think there's some really good things in it, there are some things that are probably not very good in very, very complex, and a lot of administrative costs from that unnecessary complexity. i don't think that should be a priority right now. look, those rules primarily respond to, you know, things that we didn't get done after the great financial crisis. 14 years in the making. my view is, they can wait a little longer. liquidity really needs to be front and center. i know the regulators are working on a new package of strategies and proposals to deal with -- to provide more liquidity, mainly by getting banks to use a discount window her and be more prepared to use the discount window. so, i expect those to be coming out. i expect that to be a higher priority. there's a lot of good things, but i don't think that should be the priority right now. >> sheila, always great to see you.

thank you. >> sure. >> sheila bair. fed chair powell today suggesting cuts could be pushed out further. let's get to steve liesman with all the details. steve? >> hey, melissa. yeah, after today's high level fed speech from the chair and the vice chair, based both on what they've said and not said, there's a case to be made the fed's base case has moved away from cuts, likely being appropriate. jay powell saying this afternoon in a conversation with the canadian central bank that the fed's restrictive policy needs further time to work. he went on to say, he noted a lack of further progress on inflation this year. he said the recent data has not given the fed greater confidence to cut. progress is taking longer than expected to achieve the confidence to cut. and the fed can maintain that restrictive rate as long as is needed. what powell didn't say maybe equality important, remember back in -- earlier this month,

he said, if the economy evolves broadly as we expect, we see it as likely to be appropriate to begin lowering the policy rate at some point this year. that was not part of his remarks today. fed vice chair jefferson used that same language in late february, but he omitted them from prepared remarks today, as well. making the case that the base case may not be for cuts anymore. well, the market beginning to price all of this in here, 3% for may, you can write that off. june increasingly a long shot. july becoming less than an even money proposition for a cut. september is your best case right there, 68%. so, 491 is the january 2025 contract compared to the current rate of 538. that's less than two cuts built in this year, but remember, it called for six cuts not all that long ago. the market heard increasingly hawkish talk of other fed officials, but not necessarily from the leadership like it did today. no cuts may become the base case

for equity and bond investors and wall street's fed forecasters are going to have to use -- erase some of that eraser in order to change their base case. again, none of this means the fed won't cut at all. it means it's not the default position to cut rates, and i'm kind of with tim, melissa, on the idea that there wasn't more market reaction to that, maybe they wake up this morning or maybe they priced it in already. >> that's -- yeah, that's very true, steve. i was actually kind of surprised, too, because it seems now, if powell is going to acknowledge that the inflation that we've had so far is sort of breaking that previous base case scenario, then it seems like the bar is even higher for them to then go ahead and cut. that the trend has to be re-established in terms of inflation readings coming down. >> yeah, and let me -- couple things i want to say. if you look back to thursday in the s&p, we're off 2.7% or 3% from there, so, the market, maybe not because of the fed, but because of its concern about iran, have already sold off

quite a bit in a very short period of time. the other thing that made clear is, there was this idea out there that the fed could lower rates and still be on the track to 2% inflation. this idea of preemptive or optional cuts that it could take, that it would still be restrictive enough to bring inflation down even if it cut by 25 or 50 or 75 basis points. that's the idea that's fading away now, melissa. >> steve, it's karen. thanks for being on. i always come back to the question of, what do you think the fed wants real interest rates to be? and now, with rates having moved, is there enough room to maybe still accommodate that? >> well, first of all, karen, thank you and others on your panel for thinking the way economists think, which is in terms of real interest rates and the inflation-adjusted interest rates, because that makes it easier -- it's a better way to understand the federal reserve. what we know is that, they raise their real, or their neutral

rate in the last meeting by a tenth, but there is talk out there that maybe that real rate of 3% minus, for example, their 2% goal of inflation, is actually a bit higher than that. so, they still think they have a ways to go, but remember, powell is not an economist, he's a lawyer, and he looks at economists debating about neutral interest rates and -- i don't know if he laughs, but he maybe scotches ffs a little bit. he doesn't have much patience for it. his idea is, we'll see the right real rate or the right neutral rate by the way the economy acts, and what we're hearing from powell now is, the economy ain't acting in a way that the fed is necessarily too restrictive. >> steve, thank you. nice to see you. >> pleasure. >> steve liesman. >> how do you think this plays out in terms of the -- do you think there's a delayed reaction? oftentimes, we have delayed reaction. >> i think we're delayed and waiting for earnings and

earnings guidance, more importantly. you've said it this week, karen. q-1 is baked in the cake, and we know that estimates usually come down into the quarter and companies have a higher beat rate and if the banks, at least the money center banks, like, the visibility or the tone is similar across some of these other sectors that have been leading the way, technology would be a big one. if there is any lack of visibility in some of the biggest leaders in technology, i think the s&p is going to quickly from being down 4% to down 10%. but in my mind, that's probably a good thicng, if you think about. maybe estimates don't come down too much in the year in the face of higher oil, higher dollar, higher yields, these are all headwinds to corporate earnings. if you think about a lot of 2023, the ability for companies to pass through, you know what i mean, some of these price increases to customers, that gets harder and harder. so me, earnings visibility is going to be the most important thing and it will determine if we finally have a 10% drawdown. we had one last year, july to early october, and you saw this

kind of spring sort of action that we had from there. i just think expectations, sentiment, everything goteuphor. >> you already predict the s&p is entering the lower band of the channel? >> speaking of inflation, if you look at the s&p adjusted for inflation, we've still not taken out our 2021 high. that's a factor in terms of what one's results really are in the asset class of equities. yes, we're down 4% lplus. once you go down 5%, it triggers her. all of those selloffs, going back to the 1920s, once you go down five, the median and the mean is between 8% and 11%. i think that's a normal thing that should be -- well, it's long overdue. coming up, a luxury slowdown. a currency crush. and the dank details from a cannabis conference. lvmh sales growth hits a snag. the yen hitting its lowest level in 34 years. and all the sights, sounds, and smells from one of the industry's biggest cannabis

conferences. tim will lay out the details, next. but first, united afterhours. we'll bring you the numbers next. don't go anywhere. "fast money" is back in two. this is "fast money" with melissa lee, right here on cnbc.

my name is oluseyi and some of my favorite moments throughout my life are watching sports with my dad. now, i work at comcast as part of the team that created our ai highlights technology, which uses ai to detect the major plays in a sports game. giving millions of fans, like my dad and me, new ways of catching up on their favorite sport.

welcome back to "fast money." we've got an earnings alert on united airlines. the stock higher in afterhours. let's get to phil lebeau, who has all the details. phil? >> melissa, sometimes there's a beat and sometimes there's a whoa, that is way better than what the street was expecting. that's the case with united in the first quarter. a loss of 15 cents a share, the street was expecting a loss of 57 cent as share. we'll explain why a bit of a divergence there. united taking a $200 million impact in the first quarter because of the max-9 grounding. without that, united says it would have been a profitable first quarter. revenue, better than expected at $12.54 billion. and here's the divergence between united and the analysts. revenue per seat mile coming in, an increase of 0.6%.

that's better than many were expecting. and cost per seat mile, excluding fuel, is lower than many analysts were expecting. that is going to be up about 4.7%. finally, when you look at their eps guidance for the second quarter, it's higher than many are expecting. they are expecting to earn 375 to 425 a share. the street going into this record at 376. so, clearly, that's likely to go higher following the conference call tomorrow. and the fleet news is the news that's getting a lot of attention afterhours. remember that for sometime united has said they were looking to get airbus a-321s. they are looking to start servicing them. and they have cut down the number of narrow body planes. beginning this year, they expected 101, now, because of the problems at boeing, and also there's restricted capacity for production at airbus, as well,

they're going to get 61 this year, instead of 101. that means they're shifting their capex. they are converting some max-10 orders to max-9s, and they are also grounding the -- grounding impact, again, $200 million. don't forget, melissa, tomorrow morning on "squawk box," we're going to talk with scott dikirb. we're going to talk about what's happening at boeing, the search for a new ceo, if they have confidence in the dreamliner. lots to talk about with scott kirby. >> look forward to that tomorrow morning. phil, thank you. phil lebeau. tim seymour, much better than expected, and the bar was set so low, especially after they canceled that investor day meeting. >> again, i think this was much better than expected. the fact that they reiterated that '24 full-year guide of $9 to $11 a share, the street was not expecting that. the first operating profit s since -- for the march quarter since 2019, i believe.

i think they're international business was a bright spot, it was up 11.7%, domestic was solid. so, if you look at united as a massive underperformer to delta, i think you're going to get more follow-through here. i think this is a huge relief. i think fuel costs were better. so, in a higher environment, where airlines are going to str struggle, always struggle with sentiment around fuel, i think this was a very, very strong number. just strong. >> carter, how does the chart look? >> well, it's a trading chip. we know the stock, how many times has it been bankrupt? it's the same price it was since 2006, and think of this, its market cap is $13 billion. william sonoma is bigger than that. it's just not an important company. you can make a trade, but it's not an investment. it's something else. there's a lot more "fast money" to come. here's what's coming up next. designer decline. luxury retail seeing a slowdown. has lvmh posted slowing sales

growth. how consumers holding out on handbags are impacting the space, next. plus, land of the rising sun. but the currency is a different story. the yen at 34-year lows against the dollar. the key level it is nearing, and how regulators could get involved. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this.

when you own a small business every second counts. 120 seconds to add the finishing touches. 900 seconds to arrange the displays. if you're short on time for marketing constant contact's powerful tools can help. you can automate email and sms messages so customers get the right message at the right time. save time marketing with constant contact.

because all it takes is 30 seconds to make someone's day. get started today at constantcontact.com. >> university of maryland helping the small stand tall. global campus is a school for real life, one that values the successes you've already achieved. earn up to 90 undergraduate credits for relevant experience and get the support you need from your first day to graduation day and beyond. what will your next success be?

welcome back to "fast money." lvmh reporting a 2% drop in first quarter revenue, missing analyst estimates. blaming an uncertain economy and geopolitical environment for the short fall. the company saw weakness in its watch division, as well as a 12% drop in organic sales for wines and spirits. shares rose 3% to end the day. karen, this one is in your acronym -- >> it is. >> helm. >> it's the l in helm. >> you were on the call today. >> i was. it moved up, because remember when they announced that terrible miss, they're going to miss by 20% of revenues. so, that was, you know, just a terrible day in the luxury space. and so, fears were maybe overblown here. things, when you adjust for

currency, which had a 4% negative effect, they actually reported positive, and coingnac that was bottoming out. sephora was strong. the chinese buyer, while not so strong in china, was actually strong abroad. so, that's a very big -- very big helpful thing for them. japan was uniquely strong. huge increase in japan. 32% growth in japan. a lot of that was the chinese buyer going to japan. so, that was interesting. quiet luxury also doing well, which you remember -- >> quiet luxury? >> the succession thing. the $400 baseball cap, no labels, no nothing -- >> that sounds like rip-off, not quiet luxury. >> so that was doing well. watches were not doing well. that was sort of a not so bright

spot at all, but given how bad it could have been, this was much better. coming up, japan nearing a key level. the yen falling to 34-year lows against the dollar and intervention may follow. everything you need to know about the currency concerns, next. plus, some fast movers catching our traders eyes today. our unh kept the do afloat, while j&j tried to bring it down. more on those moves when "fast money" returns. missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this. welcome to ameriprise. i'm sam morrison. my brother max recommended you. so, my best friend sophie says you've been a huge help. at ameriprise financial, more than 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us. our neighbors, the garcía's, love working with you. because the advice we give is personalized, -hey, john reese, jr. -how's your father doing? to help reach your goals with confidence. my sister's told me so much about you. that's why it's more than advice worth listening to. it's advice worth talking about.

ameriprise financial. switch to shopify and sell smarter at every stage of your business. take full control of your brand with your own custom store. scale faster with tools that let you manage every sale from every channel. and sell more with the best converting checkout on the planet. a lot more. take your business to the next stage when you switch to shopify.

welcome back to "fast money." stocks closing mixed after fed chair jerome powell said there's been a lack of progress in stopping inflation. shares of livenation lower today after reports the justice department may sue the company for anti-trust violations. a story we brought to you yesterday. the stock seeing its worst day since last july. gold higher again today. the metal up more than 16% this year. settling at a record for the 20th time this year. and berkshire hathaway lower today. the stock notching its seventh straight day of losses. longest losing streak since

2018. and bitcoin following below $63,000 as the entire space pulls back. the halving expected to happen this week, reducing the amount of bitcoin in circulation. >> we have seen the post-halving rallies happen beforehand, dan? >> the spot bitcoin etfs, that was a lot of excitement, it went from $40,000 to $75,000, almost in a straight line. and this event, which is obviously telegraphed, no one knows exactly when it was going to be, it does greatcreate grea scarcity. interesting to see how it trades after this sort of event. the one thing i'll mention, over the weekend, there was very few risk assets that trade 24/7. it did trade. it traded down when bombs started flying into iran. that's what it tells about the risk asset compared to others,

that this is meant to be a value, supposed to do the thing s. turning now to japan, where the yen has hit a 34-year low despite recent moves to help boost the currency. the country's finance minister says he will provide a, quote, thorough response, as needed, but our next guest says japan is at def-con 3 when it comes to jpy intervention. joining us now, kathy lean. kathy, great to see you. verbal jawboning doesn't seem to work, so, what next? >> you're right. i mean, verbal jawboning is basically something the market is anticipating. they want to see less talk and more action, because, you nknow as i said, they are at def-con 3, but investors are not seeing any type of rate checking from the central bank. i think the one problem that we have right now is that when they

intervened back in september/october 2022, the environment was very different. the one-month implied volatilities in the japanese yen at the time was around 13% to 17%. right now, the one-month implied volatility is closer to 9%. so, the japanese who have been calling the move, you know, one-sided, disorderly, aren't necessarily seeing that immense amount of volatility they saw back in 2002 that really pushed them to the edge of intervention. this is really a dollar story, melissa, and if they intervene, they're fighting against the winds of the market, because u.s. data has been very good. and the main reason why dollar-yen shot to the highs, even though it had been in uptrend since the beginning of the year, because we had the new leg higher in u.s. yields. you couple that with the fed looking at a delayed interest rate cut, and all of that is really driving the dollar portion of the yen higher. so, intervening at a time when we have yields going up in the u.s., and not going down, will

make it very difficult for the bank of japan and the japanese government in general. so, it's, you know, they don't necessarily have the right environment they're looking for, but we're getting close to levels where they are really going to be pushed to action. >> can you connect the dots for us in terms of the impact, ultimately, if there is intervention, on u.s. rates, japanese being the biggest holder of u.s. treasuries, and they're facing bigger energy bills at this point. they import, what, 90% plus of their energy into the country. >> you're absolutely right. i mean, if they came into the market and they intervened, given there's such large holders of u.s. treasuries, by intervening into the market, they're basically effectively need to sell treasuries and buy back the japanese yen. which, you know, could effect, you know, u.s. interest rates in a way they don't want to. also, by selling u.s. dollars, that could also cause, you know, inflation to rise, because a

weaker dollar is inflationary. that's one of the main reasons why i don't think we're going to get coordinated intervention. the japanese currency spokesman has been teasing the contact he's having with international central banks, but i don't think this is the right environment for them to come into, because they're basically trying their best to keep that inflation level going in the right direction. but at the end of the day, melissa, i think it's important to realize that even if the bank of japan come in, the intervention rarely is lasting in the market. unless it's coordinated. and we've seen this time and time again. so, i think, you know, it's going to be a futile effort on their part. i think we're going to see a situation where even if they intervene, dollar-yen is going to fall, but a lot of buyers come back into the markets. >> kathy, great to see you. carter here has some charts on jpy. >> yeah, let's look at it. two charts, and they're identical, with different lines. the first one, what you'll see

here, we moved above -- this is going back to 1970. we've finally moved above that downtrend line, which is, of course, weakness in the yen. and ultimately, let's draw lines a different way, i think we're headed to 175. now, obviously the question is, do they intervene before that or is intervention even effective? we shall see, but my hunch is, there's more to come of what we've seen of late. >> 175. tim, what does that do to your calculus in terms of investing there? >> well, it makes japanese equities more interesting. japanese exporters. i mean, for sure. probably japanese banks, who i think are going to suffer also in at least some of the higher rate environment, but you know, the -- the yen carry trade, which is essential libor roeing, receiving yen, and investing in dollars, only become more extreme as rates have going higher in the u.s., so, there is more pressure on this.

kathy pointed out intervention doesn't work, and if anything, central bank differentials now really support the fed. that's part of the reason why the dollar's going higher. coming up, a pair of fast movers. united health and johnson & johnson moving in different directions. what investors liked, what they didn't, that's next. plus, goldman sachs betting big on sports betting. draftkings jumping on a high call from those analysts tay.od the reasons behind that wager, after this. your skin is ever-changing, take care of it with gold bond's age renew formulations of 7 moisturizers and 3 vitamins. for all your skins, gold bond. your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire ♪ ("three little birds" by bob marley & the wailers) ♪

♪♪ discover our newest resort sandals saint vincent and the grenadines, now open. visit sandals.com or call 1—800—sandals. >> [music] i enrolled in umgc because i became very passionate about emergency management. the professors were great because they've had several years' experience in the field. they've seen emergency management hands-on. i'm able to learn from their experience and really make a difference. i picked university of maryland global campus because you get so much more out of it than just a diploma. >> learn about our more than 125 online degrees and certificates at umgc.edu [ music ] i have a business idea. and it just might change the world. but here's the thing, i can't do it... alone. so, are you in?

i'm in. nothing else to do. yeah, i don't know... um, i need to speak to my agent. (snoring) i think creed's out. (grandpa) i'm the richest guy in the world. (man 1) i have time to give. (man 2) i have people i can count on. (grandma) and a million stories to share. (vo) the key to being rich is knowing what counts.

well cacome back to "fast money." united health surging today, adding 152 points to the dow and single handedly lifting the index into the green today. the company beating on the top and bottom line, affirming strong full year eps guidance. united health revenues for the quarter coming in at just under $100 billion, after the impact of the company's recent cyber attack, an increase of 9% from the same period last year. also medical loss ratio, when you back out the impact from that cyber attack, was also below what analysts had been expecting, specifically with jared holz had outlined yesterday at 84%.

karen, we did see the likes of a hum humana up sharply on the back of this. >> obviously it's good when you have someone like united health doing well, but i think this is a big sigh of relief. nothing terrible happened, and the stock had really been shellacked in the last few months. so, a relief rally, as well as, you know, deserving that they stuck by their guidance. that was good. they could have easily changed it, so -- things are getting back to -- some of them are back above where they were trading when we got that bd newbad news reimbursement, so, relieved. >> united is the u in carter's plug trade. >> god-like. >> still god-like? >> well, as you said, it's been shellacked. if you are -- a journalist can start their story anyway, today, it's that it surged. but it's -- what it really is, you can start the headline like this, instead of being down 11% from april 1st, it's down 4%.

this has been under a lot of pressure. this is a relief rally, and at least it happened up, not down, because then it would have really sunk the ship and made this under pressure that would have to be considered, maybe it's not god-like. >> but it still is? >> for sure. okay. meantime, johnson & johnson dropping despite recording and earnings beat. the health care company also adjusting full-year guidance to just slightly below the top end of what analysts were expecting. the company did see sales of medical devices surge as demand for nonurgent surgeries grew, and that's in line of what we're hearing from the insurers. >> med tech was very strong. and if you look at their innovative medicine division, effectively, 65% of their sales, roughly, it's. >> reporter: strong. orthopedic backlogs for old guys like me getting weird kind of things, knees and shoulders done. there's a lot of demand for that. the big story -- the financial

performance of the company was fine. and investors have to think about this as a total return type investment, solid dividend, and i think a pretty conservative company. all things said, the overhang from the talc litigation is really what's holding this stock back. i think any type of settlement is probably good news, i think the market is priced a lot of this in, and we had some news, whatever, a few weeks ago that maybe there's a chance for them to reargue their case on correlations. maybe the best thing for the company is just keep moving forward. i'm comfortable waiting with this stock, but it's been, you know, a stock that's done nothing for five years. >> it's interesting. so, just, you know, this is a $350 billion market cap company, unh is a pretty sizable one, half a trillion. look at apple, 2.6 trillion. there's big stocks in the market that act really badly. when you see a stock like johnson & johnson making new 52-week lows, only down 4% from

its highs, i can say, it could be stock specific, but a lot of stocks are having stock-specific stories. coming up, betting on a winner. a big call on draftkings. why analysts are wagering on the name. could it be a good parlay for your portfolio? we have the details next. "fast money" is back in two. verg magic.

she runs and plays like a puppy again. his #2s are perfect! he's a brand new dog, all in less than a year. when people switch their dog's food from kibble to the farmer's dog, they often say that it feels like magic. but there's no magic involved. (dog bark) it's simply fresh meat and vegetables, with all the nutrients dogs need— instead of dried pellets. just food made for the health of dogs. delivered in packs portioned for your dog. it's amazing what real food can do.

welcome back to "fast money." wlet let's get to our call of the day. draftkings closing the day up more than 2.7%. analysts saying they expect continued growth in the states where gambling is legal, and additional benefit, as more states grant approval. draftkings getting a $60 price target, 33% higher from here. how does that chart look, carter? >> i mean, this is the definition of an uptrend. meaning, and not ever extended. every time it gets ahead of itself, it checks back. it has a lilting giveback, that sets it back for a new intermediate high. it's the definition of stay long, be long. meantime, things are heating up in miami. as one of the strip's biggest cannabis conferences kicks off today. our own tim seymour, in-house cannabis expert, is dialing in from the event, so, what's the buzz there at the conference, tim?

>> ah. puns aplenty. and certainly i think excitement aplenty for an industry that probably tries to control its emot emotions vis-a-vis how you've had headlines over the last five years, and even more so that have often been dashed. but the expectation is that we had a clarification from the white house yesterday in terms of really just restating what they've said, which is that they've had the health and human services agency recommend the fda through a very long report with the fda with a lot of medical proof that they think cannabis should be rescheduled. so, those are the things that i think there can be reasonable expectations on, even in a world where there's a political cycle, if they don't get it done in the next few months, it probably gets lost in the biden administration's need to focus on everything else. there's a view that this is an important issue for biden, and there's an issue that this is something that really isn't that big of a give on the other side, but again, this is biden's

ability to probably control this. i think overall, though, i sat on, you know, the global economy of cannabis, where we just had big news out of germany, there's certainly expectations, there's a number of the american producers that have exposure in that part of the world, so, i think an industry that has not a ton of institutional investment, and that alone would be something to get this industry going, is pretty excited by fundamentals, bottom up. all right, up next, final trades.

♪ ♪

relax into a caribbean state of mind. visit sandals.com or call 1-800 sandals. >> university of maryland global campus isn't just an innovative state school, it's a school for real life, one that values the successes you've already achieved. that's why at umgc, you can earn up to 90 credits toward the bachelor's for prior learning and life and job experience, why we offer scholarships and affordable tuition, and why we have online classes and the support you need from your first day to graduation day and beyond. no application fee if you apply by may 31st at umgc.edu. hey you, with the small business... ...whoa... you've got all kinds of bright ideas, that your customers need to know about. constant contact makes it easy. with everything from managing your social posts, and events, to email and sms marketing. constant contact delivers all the tools you need to help your business grow. get started today at constantcontact.com

constant contact. helping the small stand tall. - so this is pickleball? - pickle! ah, these guys are intense. with e*trade from morgan stanley, we're ready for whatever gets served up. dude, you gotta work on your trash talk. i'd rather work on saving for retirement. or college, since you like to get schooled. that's a pretty good burn, right? welcome back.

another record for women's basketball. last night's wnba draft drawing 2.5 million viewers, shattering the previous record of 600,000 set 20 years ago. you know what is not setting records, though? the salaries of the players. check out the rookie contract of caitlin clark, a four-year deal worth just $328,000. her first year's salary, $76,000, in contrast, last year's number one pick in the nba signed a rookie deal worth $55 million. that's a huge difference, karen. >> yes, it is. i mean, part of -- the whole thing that the league can capitalize on, they have new media right negotiations coming up for the next year, that will be dramatically different than what they have now, so sh the salaries will go up. time for the final trade. tim? >> another spirits company, 35% off its highs. it is interesting here. >> cbw? >> xbi for a bounce.

>> karen? >> yes. etsy. off its lows. i think we could see some growth there. >> dan? >> offer her 150 grand to come work for you next year. double it up axp. thank you for watching "fa ne".st see you tomorrow my mission is simple. to make you money. i am here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always money working somewhere and i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. welcome to mad money, i am just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain, but to educate and to teach you to be better investors. call me, or, treat me.