businesses across the districts what they're seeing on the inflation front, because now that's issue number one, which isthe fed is prolonging its rate cuts because it doesn't see enough evidence that inflation is coming down. >> and then we'll talk netflix with earnings tomorrow night ahead of next week which all the barnburner prints from google and microsoft and so forth. let's get to "the half." carl, thanks so much. welcome to "the halftime report." i'm scott wapner. front and center this hour, the new realty for stocks, higher rates for longer means for your investing strategy. the investment committee de deb debating. joe terranova, jason snipe, steve weiss and bryn talkington. let's check the markets. we are down across the board. there is your look at the three major averages. joe, i have the ten year at 4.60. we've been pressured by higher interest rates. we know that. we're on pace now for the third negative week in a row. what do i need to do? how do i need to adjust? i want to try to be actionable

for our viewers on what the playbook looks like, if the playbook needs to change? >> first of all, you have to understand, time is the enemy, because this correction could be more prolonged than we have become accustomed to in recent years. secondarily, you need to remain patient. if you need to do something right now, you need to focus on industries that have pricing power. who has pricing power? we know semiconductors and semiconductor equipment have pricing power. nvidia is nearly 12% off of its all-time high, so i would focus on what your semiconductor exposure. i would look at software. i would look at services, insurance companies, private equities. commodities are on the retreat. energy is pulling back. i still see a disincentive to increase production of very tight supply to demand balance. i would look at those industries because they have pricing power. that's most critical right now, and then the last thing i would do is i would identify the areas

of the market that i don't want to be in, and we're going to get to that in one second. i'll tell you, there's a couple areas of the market that you absolutely need to avoid. >> okay, we'll get to that in a second. bryn, do i need to change my playbook for what is going to be a different kind of market perhaps over the next few months than we once thought it would be with this higher for longer idea, which the chair himself, powell, sort of reiterated yesterday in those remarks that he made. so what does it mean for what i need to do? >> if your playbook was necessary to have rate cuts or you had a macrothematic view, you need to throw that playbook out, because it's not just like this last mile of interest rates, of inflation is going to take longer. maybe this mile turns into a marathon. and so i think from that playbook if you are in economically or interest rate

sensitive sectors like small cap and other areas that joe has consistently touched on, i think you definitely need to rethink that playbook. also, i think from an actionable idea, last year selling calls wasn't a great strategy, because the market just went straight higher for the most part, as volatility has kicked up and especially going into earnings seasons, which will be brutal for companies that disappoint -- i know we'll talk about asml, is selling calls against those positions because the premium in a lot of names has gotten higher just over the last month. i think keep your eyes open, read your reports, think about selling some calls especially on these names where there's potential down side pressure in the earnings report this year. >> i'm really thinking about those yield plays that we just threw up there, jason snipe. it's utilities, it's reits, it's the dividend aristocrats, companies that have raised their dividends for decades

consistently that are a part of that group. we know a good portion of our viewers like the dividends that they get abbvie, caterpillar. they don't necessarily have to be huge dividends either, just the idea that if you look at the performance over the last month of utilities down 3.5% as rates have gone up or staples, for example, down 4% this month, reits down 9 1/2, aristocrats are down for the abbvies, caterpillars, colgates, palmolives, procters, do i need to rethink what's going on? >> i think, for me, as it relates to rates, one is -- one part of it is the number, a two-year close to 5%. but the other piece has obviously been the pace. so as it relates to a kind of asset allocation of where we should be putting money, so the factors for me that are important is free cash flow and very strong balance sheets. so i start to turn to what joe just mentioned is energy.

i think energy, obviously we've seen the performance year to date, up 13% year to date, and opec, which has committed to supply cuts through june, so there is pricing power there and there's continued pressure on prices, so i like the commodity and i like a will the of the plays there. >> weiss, does this stay correlated as long as rates continue to back up utility, staples, reits, dividend plays and others under pressure? >> yeah. actually. it's not just them. i think the dialogue is all wrong here. been searching for opportunities in the market. i think the dialogue should be, there's a time to invest, and there's a time to protect your cash and protect your holdings and protect your capital overall. this is that time. >> to protect rather than to invest? >> and play golf or stay at work and turn your market monitors off because the market is going to go low. what we're in is an adjustment

period, and so we still have firms out there, believe it or not, despite even what powell said yesterday, look for three cuts this year. i don't know what planet they're living on, but come to planet halftime, as you quoted last week. and, look, i've taken my net exposure down to about 20%, and i mentioned that earlier in the week. i think that you're not going to miss it, right? so we don't know -- the market has been in my view and for a long period of time and i participated in it. in terms of putting off what the impact of rate hikes will do, what an extended tightening cycle, restrictive monetary cycle will do, we're in it. the bet, will the economy be able to thrive in this highly restrictive environment? now the reason why it's gotten through is we've had a lot of liquidity put in by the government through spending,

through the i.r.a., et cetera. what happens if you get a republican administration? do you think that's going to continue? i don't. i think they cut it back. >> are you going to sit on your hands until the results come out in november? >> i'm going to sit on my hands until -- until the rest of the street comes along and says, okay, no hikes this year or maybe one. i'm going to sit on my hands until valuations get more normalized than they have, and sit on my hands until in realize it's not as easy as it's been. >> you wouldn't buy this weakness yet? >> i wouldn't. even when stocks get hit, i wouldn't buy it. i think the odds are -- look, we've had no bounce. think of a period of time where we've had no real bounce, and when the bounce has been there, it's been immediately -- >> what are we off from the highs? >> 4%. >> exactly. and that's my point. 4% is not enough for a correction. >> why does there need to be a major correction if the eye is still on the prize of eventual

rate cuts? >> okay -- >> it's not like powell yesterday in his remarks suggested they're thinking about hiking rates. >> no. >> he didn't even mention that. >> it's the impact of higher rates for longer. you don't need hikes. that's purely -- >> we're going to hear about that again of the lag effects of the rate hikes? >> yeah, absolutely. do you think it doesn't impact the economy? >> they obviously have an impact, but you mentioned the stimulus that was put into the system. the economy is far more stronger today than you thought it would be. >> yeah, no doubt. that's why i participated. ultimately, and i looked at this going back, every time we've been in a restrictive cycle, gdp has gone down meaningfully. not every time a recession. >> forecast for the first quarter is going up. >> the market comes to realize that perhaps we've been on borrowed time in terms of what higher for longer means. >> we haven't had earnings yet.

>> i'm going to play the counter argument to steve's position, it appears to be the right one right now both in what he's speaking and in the practice of what he's actually got in the marketplace. 166 companies report next week. a third of the s&p. we have five of the mag seven reporting next week. that is going to be a moment that will define the direction of this market if those mag five are able to deliver once again and steady the decline recently. i also want to point everyone to may 1st. remember, here comes another treasury refunding, and the last two treasury refundings have been positive catalysts for the market both in february and in november. the market rallied off of both of those. so next week's going to be critical. back to what you said before, reits, utilities, do not go anywhere near there. you said the s&p is off 4%. do you know the russell is off

20% its all-time high? i wouldn't touch the russell 2000. >> the russell is down 7.5% this month. this month. 16 days -- >> that's a bear market. >> in the month. would you own a home builder right now? the home builder etf is down 9% this month. d.r. horton reports this thursday. you own that. that stock is down 11%. why? rates are up. >> d.r. who are tan and lennar are below for the first time in many, many months. challenging the spositive momentum and the home builder survey and housing starts are suggesting that you're beginning to see weakening in demand. the spring season is not suggesting that it's going to be as strong as we witnessed in prior springs. so i think, to answer your question at the end of the month, we will rebalance the etf and we'll see what we do with the home builders. but they're certainly not what i like to call the green light

scenario. there's certainly a yellow light. >> you raise an interesting point in that this backup in rates comes at a really interesting time for you personally, be because you're going to have to do your rebalance in the face of what has been a changing story that could change the momentum and already has in the market. you may be looking at things differently today than you were just three, four weeks ago as you approach your rebalance. >> momentum has appeared to roll over in the last several weeks. it really reached a crescendo in the last week of march, and there's areas of the market that were exhibiting very strong momentum that have had a very fast deterioration. >> let me tell you this, if i look through the joet, and if you don't want to comment on these individually because of this approaching rebalance, you don't have to, but you have a lot of things that are possibly in play here, brown and brown, cat, chubb, ww granger, s&p global, west pharmaceutical.

remember, these are -- the names i'm ripping off are utilities, staples, aristocrats, things like that, extra space storage, host hotels, public storage. you have a lot potentially to think about. bryn, you've been thinking about the russell for a while telling our viewers, don't touch it. don't touch it until you get rate cuts. the russell is down 7.5% this month. >> right. first of all, everyone is saying throughout the year saying, well, it doesn't matter if we have rate cuts. the fed just has to signal that we're going to have rate cuts. i think we're in this unique time, and i continue to hear people say, well, we've had rates at this level before in the 90s, but we haven't had are rates going from zero to 5 and then at the same time on the fiscal side for four-plus years just juicing the economy, the fiscal side keeps fighting the fed, and that, to me, is overwhelming what should be a slowing economy and lowering rates. and i think that the small cap

side, whether it's small cap value with your regional banks or small cap growth which are unprofitable, i think you're not going to get momentum, sentiment or positioning changing into that sector until we get a few more cpis. so i think until we get at least two more cpis and have an understanding of what the trajectory is, if we're going to be in the three, four, or that's heating back up, do not touch small cams. >> weiss, bank of america says the ten year could top 5% by memorial day. what would happen to this market if we had a ten year above 5.0? remember pasquariello says at what point do higher rates start to take a bite? maybe they're starting now. is 5% the breaking point? >> i don't think the ten year is what is driving the market. i think it's the two year. i think it's the five year. and we're already pretty much -- we're at 5% in the two year.

if you're an equity investor, if you can get 5% in the ten year, sure, you lock it up for ten years and have the optionality, but they've already locked up 5% in the two year. if you're an equity investor, that's where you go. you don't hide for a decade. you hide for a couple years. that's what i've done. >> so we're back to an alternative to stocks conversation -- >> without a doubt. >> -- that we thought we had moved beyond. that's critical, actually, because we thought the narrative had changed. okay, there's all these trillions of dollars on the sidelines or in money market funds. they're all going to pour into the equity market. that's going to lead to the next leg higher. maybe now we're rethinking. maybe i need to go back into the money market. >> and that's a possibility. the other thing to consider, maybe the target changes, the 2% target. maybe they're moving 2%, 3% potentially.

we've all talked about how long the travel down for the last leg of the cycle, trying to get rates down is going to be difficult. maybe the target moves. weiss makes a good point on the short end of the curve, that's where the focus needs to be. yes, if there's a two-year trading at 5%, which it is right now, i think that's a safe place to be given kind of how we're trying to navigate the current marketplace. if you're rule based or have to be in the market, there is an opportunity. >> i want to move on. asml is one of them. chips will be an interesting place after stocks missed. the stock getting hit pretty good down 8%. stock, you owned it. you trimmed it earlier today? >> i did. it seemed to me in the premarket it was looking down like $46 which was about 4.8%. it seemed to me that underestimated the decline. i trimmed a little bit -- >> you cut your losses.

>> the street overall was looking for a miss this quarter, but we got more than a miss. i didn't expect a miss of this magnitude. i thought it would trade lower. if you take a look, even though they beat the bottom line, the miss for the guidance, for the second quarter, is pretty stark, pretty aggressive. now here is what i think. in a normal market down here, i would probably take a look at it and maybe nibble on it but not now with the market environment. they confirmed -- if you think about the company, there's a long lead time to their book of business, what they make, they make -- what they sell the semiconductors, their machinery is the size of a bus, so that doesn't manufacture overnight. it's not like clothing. it's not like food. the point of it is, when they come out and tell you they're maintaining guidance for the year, that means they'll be delivering a lot more, shipping a lot more in the third quarter

and fourth quarter. so i do think you'll see it come back. they are critical to a.i. they are critical to chips. and they're the only ones that do what they do with their euv, their ultraviolet technology, which is new. i'm confident in the company still, but in this market, it's not bouncing back anytime soon. it's a show-me story now. >> so what does it make you think about taiwan semi, which reports tomorrow? >> taiwan semi is less of a mystery, because they tell you how they're doing throughout the year. you can look at monthly numbers. look, i'm concerned about every company that's reporting in this environment because there's no parachute on the down side, but taiwan semi, which is and was a larger position than asml, is -- i'm comfortable with it. >> it's down today. nvidia is down today though it gets a positive mention of morgan stanley. $1,000 reiterated as a price

target. the stock rallied back, down $22 today. what do i need to think about the chips? >> nvidia is in correction territory, very clearly. we know the fundamental strength the company has. i'll tell you this, the earnings report is going to be very important. it's going to be important because what's happening is this dynamic that as nvidia moves lower the algorithmic fund avalanches and there's a snowball effect of more and more selling as price goes lower, and that's exactly what's going on right now. so you need something to push up against that, and i think it's ultimately earnings that have to step forward and be that positive catalyst, if anything is going to be. so there's a little bit more pressure, i think, on this earnings report for nvidia to really deliver the type of earnings they've delivered in the past. >> adam parker, bryn, suggests nvidia and the earnings report is the most important data point

of the entire earnings season. do you agree with that? >> first of all, adam has a long history in semis, so i always want to listen to what adam has to say in the semi space. absolutely. because the only company -- the only company outside of super micro, but the only big company that's really delivering on a.i. is nvidia, because when you get 11 trillion made up of five companies all buying the same product, you get nvidia's outcome. i think you still want to see nvidia continuing to have these really big beats and guide higher. i think nvidia is going to be incredibly important. i think microsoft is second to that because they're actually monetizing copilot. i think those are the two most important a.i. stories this quarter. >> a.i. is going to get a good test next week when the mega caps start reporting. jason, you've been trimming nvidia late. are you concerned going into this quarter at some point

they're not going to measure up to where the hype machine has taken the stock? >> i don't think that point is anytime soon, to be honest with you. i think the report will be strong, and i agree with joe, i think it's extremely important, and it is in corrective territory, down 12% in the last few weeks. still up 73% year to date. and inthought the conference went well talking about partnerships, ongoing partnerships, the blackwell chip and what they're doing in support of developers. i think it will be important. it continues it get cheaper with the guidance and earnings. let's see how it plays out. >> microsoft, joe, is next thursday. alphabet next thursday as well. you have amazon on the 30th. you have a lot in the near term that's going to have a big say on where this mark goes from here. >> absolutely. a lot is riding with the mega cap five. apple is incredibly important as well. and we thought that apple was developing some positive momentum last week. it went from 167 to 168

wednesday/thursday on the news about a.i. >> it was one of the best days. >> i was on "closing bell" with you. i was excited about the fu fundamental moves and delivering an iphone 16 a.i. as well. and there was excitement. there was clearly some strong buying interest. it got up to 178 but it's fallen right back. that's indicative of a stock that's struggling, that has already lost its positive momentum. it has negative momentum for sure and it's discouraging to see that type of pullback below 170. >> how about this, weiss, today, we madeit our "call of the day" because you have maxim group out today. they initiate hold, 178 is the price target, and them asked the question essentially, is apple dead money? we're monitoring a list of items that could contribute to a prolonged dead money period for the stock, they say, including antitrust/regulation, a demand imbalance for consumer

electronics and competition. do you want to size up that call and that idea? >> i would say dead money at best. they have not excited the market with any earnings report. i can't remember when. number two, the impact a.i. will have on them, sure they're with google, they'll use a.i. as google gemini and that's really it. that's siri going to do? it's all going to be based on somebody else's technology because apple is an asset light company and they underspend and their r&d has a percentage of earnings versus almost any other tech company. it's still major dollars because they generate so much revenue. they're expensive and we haven't seen any meaningful upgrades since even at the iphone x that was supposed to be the seminal upgrade event, there was nothing there. i don't know if there's an

appetite for having a camera that zooms in more. i think a.i., they have to talk about. they have to have an answer for the competition. i just don't see what it is. i think it's an expensive stock for no growth company. >> bryn, do you want to take the other side that have? >> yeah. i own apple. i think where the analysts got it a bit wrong, it's a real b bugaboo they have one product, the iphone. there's 1.2 billion active iphones, and i think what they're going to do -- i think siri could be a trojan horse here. i think they're going to come out with a product that probably has 100% customer satisfaction. no one is going to an android. the refresh cycle is just slowing. i do think, i agree with steve it could be dead money for a couple quarters. the chart looks terrible, lower highs, but i do think over the next couple quarters, could be a really nice spot to enter the name name. i know they will have a great product we all use that make our

lives easier and there's 1.2 billion people that will instantly adopt that. >> those who have written the stock off, joe, have been proven wrong, to say the least. >> yes, they sure have and it speaks towards jim cramer's mantra of own it, don't trade it. this is a company with a tremendous balance sheet. you can't deny that clearly this stock is underperforming relative to its peers. >> sure. the stock has traded like it's broken. >> yes. to weiss' point, the lack thereof that has weighed on the stock and we're going to have to wait until mid-june for wwbc so it's paid a price for being allegedly late to the whole a.i. announcement game. i want to hit one more stock before we take a break. it's lilly. because we've look at mega caps before, and lilly had been progressively rising in terms of

its mega cap because its weight loss drug showed potential to treat people withsleep apnea. joe, you've owned it. we talked about it for a stretch where it had a tremendous run a few months back. it's still up 30% year to date and 100% over the past year. you've got it. >> it is. in early march the stock peaked. it's been resilient since. it's moderated the advance, a little bit of a modest correction. i think 800 is the high from early march. i also think it's benefiting from the health care sector in general not offering too many appealing alternatives for investors exploring for opportunity in the health care sector itself. health care, really the last several years has underperformed and eli lilly standing out, almost trading like a biotech. it is very universally owned. it's owned. it's a hedge fund vip for sure. we're going to take a quick break. when we come back, we're going to debate tesla.

the street is divided on the stock. so is the committee. bryn, as you know, is long. steve weiss is short. we're going to debate how to play it from here. the stock is down a lot this year. we'll do it next. >> announcer: are you following "the halftime report" podcast? what are you waiting for? look for us in your favorite podctiasng app? follow "the halftime" podcast now. giving traders even more ways to sharpen their skills with tailored education. get an expanding library filled with new online videos, webcasts, articles, courses, and more - all crafted just for traders. and with guided learning paths stacked with content curated to fit your unique goals, you can spend less time searching and more time learning. trade brilliantly with schwab. [alarm beeping] amelia, turn off alarm. amelia, weather. 70 degrees and sunny today. amelia, unlock the door. i'm afraid i can't do that, jen.

why not? did you forget something? my protein shake. the future isn't scary, not investing in it is. you're so dramatic amelia. bye jen. 100 innovative companies, one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges expenses and more prospectus at invesco.com. my name is oluseyi risk and some of mynses favorite moments throughout my life are watching sports with my dad. now, i work at comcast as part of the team

that created our ai highlights technology, which uses ai to detect the major plays in a sports game. giving millions of fans, like my dad and me, new ways of catching up on their favorite sport. if you've ever grilled, you know you can count on propane to make everything great. but did you know propane also powers school buses that produce lower emissions that lead to higher test scores? or that propane can cut your energy costs at home? it powers big jobs and small ones too. from hospitals to hospitality, people rely on propane-an energy source that's affordable, plentiful, and environmentally friendly for everyone. get the facts at propane.com/now. welcome back. tesla shares down more than 35%

year to date, and thecompany set to report earnings next week. analysts divided on where the stock is headed from here. bryn long, weiss short. bryn, make your case. why should we still believe in this stock story? >> well, the stock right now doesn't look good. let's just separate the two. the stock from the company. the chart looks terrible. don't forget that in january of 2023 i bought it at around 120. this stock got to, i think, $100 during the early part ofone day of trading and that's with estimates of $5 for full year 2023. we're not even going to sniff that this year. so this stock could go lower. let me make that clear. it looks broken right now. while i would not discount is elon. i think he's one of the most prolific innovators and engineers of our time with spacex. literally i think nasa would be defunded with what he's done with energy storage and at

neurolink. he is going to have right now between this earnings report, which will be bad and the shareholder package, i think it's very murky right now because, make no mistake, part of this valuation is based on sentiment and also valuations, margins and earnings expanding. so i see absolutely why steve is short. i don't think he will be short long term. i think it's a trade. longer time we will get some clarity and this will be over the next few months a potentially good opportunity to add or buy to the position. >> my question for bryn, and i'm not trying to be difficult with this, is that as a fiduciary of her investor capital, how could she invest in a company where there is no governance? there is no independent voice on the board, where they've gone out and made an acquisition like solar city, right, to stop it from failing because it was his brother's company and because the federal government told spacex you've got to stop buying

solar city bonds with the money we're giving you for r&d? where he's tried to bayoused tesla to buy material for his house, the windows, where he wants a $55 billion pay package and where we saw jack dorsey with two companies, we have elon musk with multiple companies. plus there's the allegations that we saw it on joe rogan's broadcast of drug use. how does a fiduciary hold this company? isn't it worth just passing on this and going to something you don't have to explain owning? >> i own this personally, first of all this is a personal position. we love to own broad-based etfs, the majority of our client base. this is not a fiduciary decision this is my decision. i think that what you're pointing out, these things, i

think you just don't like elon. if you separate yourself and say, look at this company -- i think that's the truth, right? >> everything i said is a fact, bryn. it's a fact. >> i know, but why -- he's a grown man. the joe rogan thing is just strange and that was years ago. >> it's not just joe rogan -- >> if you look at the company and when you still look at the two companies where the best engineers want to work is spacex and tesla, because this is not an elon show as well, even though it feels that way, he has to be able to retain top talent. i think as it relates to tesla being pragmatic about the company, the chart looks terrible and they're in a murky situation right now. it feels like, are you going to be a car company that's balancing higher revenues, higher earnings and margins, and then, also, innovating at the same time with self-driving, more energy and robotaxi, or do a full pivot to robotaxi?

if they come out and do that, that's a revaluation of the name on the down side. that is probably five to ten years out. >> and, by the way, weiss -- sorry, bryn -- if this is principally a governance related story -- >> that's one aspect of it. >> it sounds like it's a major one, however, right? major. >> even put that aside, the fundamentals deteriorating, we've hit the limits in terms of the ev adoption. they have the oldest ev lineup in the industry globally. they have 20% of their revenues come from china. we see what china has done. we've seen apple move their supply chain to india, and they have better relationship and longer standing relationships with the chinese government. china is supporting their domestic producers that, by the way, make newer, more richer in terms of the accessories, in terms of basically even the --

even the range. of theirs cars than tesla. that's number two. number three -- number three, we've seen elon just tweet out, oh, no more prices -- we're raising prices. he lied. they're cutting prices. big robotaxi announcement. we secured funding for the take private. the guy is a pathological liar to keep his stock price up. so forgetting the fundamentals, you've got lots full of evs selling at major discounts from the major auto players that couldn't sell them. the fundamentals are horrendous. >> bryn? >> i think that with -- >> bryn, one more thing. >> no, no, let bryn go. >> one more thing, one more buzz line. once again, you just don't like elon, by the way. >> i think elon is a genius. i've said that repeatedly. >> when you look at the ev market, they continue to be the top-selling brand in china.

when we look at america, 9% of the ev space, china, which tesla was the single -- it's the only manufacturing company that it was able to build in china autonomously without having influence from the chinese government. he has a very strong relationship. i believe they will build their next gig factory in china. if this was a u.s. ev story i would not own the name. >> that's a hell of a defense, you just don't like elon. >> china is a very different story. >> let me work this in and then we're going to be done. adam jonas, why do we remain overweight tesla shares? he's been skeptical about the repeated price cuts and all the other stuff. we believe tesla has significant attributes to be valued as an a.i. beneficiary, but the

company must first see a stabilization. >> bryn's entirely wrong about their ability to retain talent. if you look at tesla and you look -- we just had two critical people leave tesla this week. their turnover in their executive and engineering ranks is legendary, is unprecedented. i don't know where she gets that from, but look at the facts, and i know it's maybe because i just don't like elon that all these people are leaving, but that really had nothing to do with it. >> the stock is up 750%. >> exactly. i'm short now, it's all coming home to roost. >> there are periods of time over the last five years where notable people have been short and it hasn't mattered because their shorts have proven to have

not worked well. >> i haven't been short. >> i understand. >> how many ev manufacturers have we had over the last ten years? >> bryn? >> i don't even know what that means. >> how many price cuts have we had with tesla models over the last five years? >> steve -- steve, wisdom is chasing you if you just stop. seriously. >> what the hell is she saying? i don't get it. >> steve, we're going to take a break. we're going to take a break. >> just admit your wrong and the stock is going lower and i'll buy more lower, that's what she should be saying. facts are facts. >> there's no fact to the stock doing everything. >> everything i said about the governance, the price cuts, his tweets that have been wrong, about the competitive landscape, the appetite for evs, those are all facts. >> bryn, we'll see. >> we will. let's get the headlines from kate rooney. speaker of the house, mike johnson, released an outline of

a four-part proposal on foreign aid and national security spending. aid to israel, ukraine and taiwan is split into three different bills and the fourth would be a combination of seizing russian assets, forcing a tiktok sale and putting more sanctions on iran. some of the money in the foreign bills would be positioned as a loan. texts of the bills is expected to be released later today. the speaker faces stiff opposition from some far-right lawmakers. climate change will reduce the world's future income by about 19% by 2050, about $35 trillion per year according to research backed by the german government. the report found while almost all people would suffer the poor and developing nations would be hit the hardest. and ford is recalling over 450 thousand compact suvs and pickup trucks in the u.s. due to a possible loss of drive power. it could be because of a low battery charge and affects ford broncos and maverick pickups

from 2021 to 2024. scott, back over to you. >> kate, i appreciate that. "chart of the day," united airlines. (grunting) at morgan stanley, old school hard work meets bold new thinking. (laughter) at 88 years old, we still see the world with the wonder of new eyes, helping you discover untapped possibilities and relentlessly working with you to make them real. old school grit. new world ideas. morgan stanley. ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even

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♪ let's get to our "charlotte of chart of the day." united airlines more than 14%, joet. >> yes. >> you own the stock. >> yes, i own united airlines. i own delta, the joet etf. >> threw the ball right down the plate. >> steadying myself, scott. it's been an interesting last five minutes here. low expectations for sure with united airlines and that's lifted the stock. the stock is trading well. it's lifting all of the airlines, jetblue, american airlines. delta already had more of a positive trend. the good thing if you're looking at the price action from ual and are interesting in buying it,

now you have a gap from 41.71 so you can work against that. >> we'll have this set up for more key earnings. first keanli wmi stoill join us next with his "midday word."

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and all i have to say is, "here i am. it works." my advice for everyone is to go with golo. it will release your fat and it will release you. we are back. senior markets commentator mike santoli with his "midday word." i won't ask you about tesla. we'll move past that. what's on your mind, though, today as we have more earnings coming in, we're still trying to figure out what this higher for longer means. >> the market hasn't figured that out for sure trying to find where the equilibrium with a slower fed.

i think the market would make its peace and it would be fine. the way you see consumer cyclicals, the home builders, the transports, it's not without risk. i think that's the bigger strategic part of it. the other is the life cycle of the pullback which is right now the dip buyers are patient and the sellers are motivated. and that's because you broke loose of that very, very tight uptrend and it seems you have to test and test and test and prices have to travel further to find conviction. the s&p 500 is right in the gap from the nvidia earnings. >> we're barely hanging on to 5,000 here. what's the significance of the number and what are the numbers on your mind? >> people have made a fuss about that's where the hedging by

market makers turns more negative. i'm not too focused on that. i'm focused where were we february 21st when we already thought the economy was good and the fed was going to ease and then we got nvidia's earnings. the s&p went from 4980 to 5080 in a day. it was a 100-point gain. and that really was another momentum push for the market. it doesn't mean there's magic in 4980 if we get there. i do think it's interesting we kind of go down in price and back in time, are things better or worse than then? >> to adam parker's point now, the importance that nvidia may hold for the next major market move. >> yeah. >> more so than looking at the s&p. look at nvidia. >> i think you probably wouldn't love it if that's really what we were waiting for because they're on a january fiscal year. numbers come in may. things are going to happen before that, but semis today off the asml number obviously are a drag. it's not awful breadth.

it seems orderly whether you want that or not at this point while you're waiting for the market to get oversold. >> i'll see you on "closing bell." netflix reports on thursday. we'll gefive you the setup next.

we got netflix reporting tomorrow before the bell, which means we need to hear from jason snipe first. >> yeah, yeah. i feel good about it. i feel good about it, scott. obviously, it's run a lot into the number. what you really need to watch for is page sharing. content spend is down, margins are expanding. obviously, they added pay sharing, they added ad supported tier. those are the metrics you need to follow. there might be some softness in adding new members, but i think

pay share will be the one to follow. >> weiss, you have this, too. >> i do, a small position. i'm of two minds on this, which means between jason and i we average one. i'm only kidding. >> expectations are so high, i am concerned that they don't meet them. so is amazon, by the way. i do think they'll come through, because content is getting cut back elsewhere. if it doesn't, netflix is one of those stocks that always bounces when they miss. so either way, i think they're okay. if it goes down, i will buy one. >> we'll see. can't it fhawaor tt report as we kick off those big tech names. "final trades" are next. s that help you make the right investment and benefit choices. so you can reach today's financial goals and look forward to a more confident future. voya, well planned, well invested, well protected.

- so this is pickleball? - pickle! ah, these guys are intense. with e*trade from morgan stanley, we're ready for whatever gets served up. dude, you gotta work on your trash talk. i'd rather work on saving for retirement. or college, since you like to get schooled. that's a pretty good burn, right? >> >> hope you'll join me on "closing bell" today, 3:00 eastern time. josh brown will be with me here. john maury, stephanie link, and we're goingto count you down the a special "closing bell." don't want to miss that. let's do "final trades." bryn? >> i think the market is going to stay choppy. cowz focuses on the companies in the russell 1,000 with the highest free cash flow yield. >> weiss? >> only because i like janet yellen, the two-year treasury and the 5%-year-old.

>> the fact that you like anybody is breaking news. but thank you very much for that. >> don't count on it coming your way. >> fine, that would be fine. jason snipe? >> i like axp, 12 million new members last year. i like this one. >> interactive brokers, stay long. >> i look forward to "closing bell." "the exchange" begins right now. >> scott, thank you very much. welcome to "the exchange." i'm tyler mathisen in today for kelly evans. here's what we got for you this hour. has the fed's base case shifted from later cuts to no cuts at all this year? our market guest says it doesn't really matter for stocks. he sees them going higher, regardless. he tells us why, and the one scenario that could change all that. plus, credit card debt. record high at the same time, using buy now, pay later to fund purchases remains very popular. we'll have