welcome to "power lunch," everybody. alongside kelly evans, i'm tyler mathiesen. glad you can join us this monday. the dow closing lower, is 40k, the sign of the top or just another bit of momentum for the rally. the nasdaq hitting a new record

high, thanks to more ai optimism. microsoft kicks off a big event, unveiling new ai pc. >> we'll talk more about that. any kind of advance in ai is going to be good for those chip stocks. analysts are getting even more bullish on nvidia. up 91% so far this year. let's begin with that existential question about dow 40k. michael santoli is over at the new york stock exchange. >> reporter: indexes making record highs are generally a feature of a strong, underlying trend. trends tend to persist. it's not necessarily the case when we get to a big number, all of a sudden you have have to start raising the alarms. the dow does hit one of these round number thresholds, although who knows if the several size is big enough. to me, what matters is all the inputs that you would look for

are also generally also in a positive state. earnings are high, and also forecasts going higher. credit conditions extremely strong, and it seems as if the market believes the economy can with stand, let's say ten year treasury yields in the four's. to me, the argument is, are we paying too much for this happy scenario in the short term, and not accounting enough for the variables that could come along, such as whether the slow down we're seeing in some consumer activity, domestically, is not just this happy deceleration to a strong landing, or something worse. and the other things that could just throw things off course. to me, it's about tactically, we can say maybe we have to rest or give something back. but longer term, most things would say don't stress the market. >> i want to ask you about mike willson, kind of throwing in the towel and raising that s &

p forecast i think to 5400 now. i think it's just one of these saying, it hadn't worked. then we skidded for three months to the october low. so maybe history repeats here. >> yeah, look. if it were a case where everybody's bullish, and the one remaining bear throwing in the towel, i would be more concerned. he sort of markets his opinion to mark it. this is an inherently impossible job to forecast the index. i do think he concedes that he was evaluation sensitive. 5400 is 2% up from here. not even. so it's not exactly as if he's a raging bull. if i look at the opinion right now, it's very lukewarm. the median and average forecast for this year for the s & p,

are basically where we are right now. so it's not the case to me. and there were some in the year 99 and 2000, when you had these prominent bears that were fired or just left the business. that was a little bit in receipt spentive a signal, people were getting a little too qualified. >> i want to keep the conversation going. our next guest says that rally can continue. she's stephanie lang, at hightower and a cnbc contributor. always good to see you. let's play a game of would you rather. >> i would rare higher growth and inflation not exceeding these levels. as you know, we topped out about 9.1%, and we're running in the 3s. we all want to get to 2. i don't think we're going to get there, because the growth here

in the states is pretty strong. 3, 3.5%. that's above trend. that's driven by the secular stories that are happening in manufacturing, like onshoring and the energy transition. it's also a little bit of pockets of strength in housing. but it's also globally, we're seeing strength. i don't think that's getting enough attention. it's china growing 5.5%. it's india growing 7%. uk doing a little better. i think inflation is going to stay elevated, but i would rather, to your question, i would rather a little better growth, because that means earnings can continue to grow, and we know that stocks follow. >> i'll touch and go that point, one last time, then i want to switch to india. in other words, if you're willing to tolerate slightly higher inflation, that would suggest you're probably willing to tolerate interest rates roughly where they are today, and don't expect a big series, certainly, of interest rate

cuts beginning at the end of this year. >> yeah, i don't think we're going to see any interest rate cuts. even if we get one or two, that's not going to do anything, really. we put in place so much already at 550 basis points over the last 15 months. the point being that the fiscal stimulus that has been put in place over $8 trillion, is more than offsetting the higher interest rates. so eventually we're going to slow, but for now, we're growing and growing quite nicely. do i think it's going to grow another 11% from here? we're up 37% in the last 18 months. so we could grind higher, and that's kind of what i'm expecting, nothing really very heroic though. >> let's talk about bill brown. do you think he's going can to be a household name one of these days? >> i do. i think he already is, and welcome back kelly, we haven't been on in a while.

it's great to see you. so bill brown was at alfrey harris, and the stock was up over 400%. he has an outstanding record. he was able to not only focus on growth, but also on margin expansion in a five year span. what i think he's going to do as the new ceo of 3m, i think he's going to focus on growth, focus on margins, and free cash flow. to me, the stock is trading at kind of a troughish kind of number. they already cut the dividend. i think this is ge2.0. >> a lot of people wanted to grab that one the first time around. >> let's get back to india. you just bought an indian etf. why? what's the thesis? >> so i bought the etf, because you get the list of diversified

companies. it's fairly concentrated. reliance industries is their 8% position. i really like that story very much. it's energy, it's power, it's grid. it's telecom. it's infrastructure. so we know that enda needs to build their infrastructure. we know they're going to grow earnings about 15% over the next couple of years. maybe even more, tyler, depending on the margin story. but the sale side is going to be very powerful. that's because of the fiscal stimulus that has been put in place. i like it very much. the etf is behind the s & p 500 in terms of year to date performance, i think it can play catch up, so it's a long term theme for me. >> interesting to see what will happen with target later this week. wal-mart grew a lot of attention and praise last week. target. >> so i own target. i like target. i like this announcement.

they're announcing lowering prices on 5,000 goods items. i think they're going on the offensive. and balancing profit versus growth. i don't think we're going to see that same growth this quarter. it's all about operating margins. if this company can get back to 6% operating margins that will get you something like 10, 15, $11 a share in earnings. that means the stock is trading at 15 times. ten multiple points lower than wal-mart. wal-mart talked about private label strength. target does 30% of their revenues in private label. the margin story, they've got to either do a 6% number, or have an outline to get to 6%, i think for the stock to do well, if it's weak for whatever reason, i'm a buyer. again on the evaluation and the growth prospects down the road. >> stephanie link. we appreciate it. >> and we'll see if we can turn this market around this afternoon, as the dow is near

session lows. coming up, the next wave of ai. microsoft revealing its new line of ai pc's. we'll hear from a top exec about what to expect. plus hims and hers in good shape. news it will start offering access to weight loss injections on its platform. shares are up 27%. we'll get the trade in free stock lunch ahead on "power lunch."

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and ceo satya nadella calls them the fastest, most ready windows pc. which makes sense, because ai is only about half a year old. welcome to both of you, steve. >> hello, youssif, fresh off the stage from this big copilot pc announcement. we knew there was going to be more ai features and really focused on hardware. i guess my question for you is, now that we have this ai pc moment happening with you, you guys are calling it pc moment. what are you telling the people who you said this is going to be an upgrade moment for a lot of people. when people are looking at these devices and say i may have bought a computer two or three years ago during the pandemic, why do they need to upgrade again now? >> first of all, the computers they have today will be great, and we're bringing things like

copilot to these pcs. these are the most advanced pc's we've of will. their faster than a mac book by a long wile. you can get essentially a photographic memory of anything you've ever seen on your pc called recall. you can create in realtime with ai. fast, private, and free, and the ability to do live translation. while you and i are talking, you can literally switch language and understand. >> much of this, because of these chips, specifically qualcomm was part of the announcement, we're used to seeing ai being run on cloud services. can you talk about what's being done in the cloud, versus what's being done on these pc's to make them stand out? >> reporter: the chapter of ai innovation that we're unveiling is on that on device action. we have 40ai models that are on

the device, that allow you to do that creation in realtime, or recall. all of that happens locally. it's all very private. but we still can go do the cloud to get updates. we'll update these models through the cloud. finally, copilot will run with the latest gpt 4.0. you get the best of both. >> then folks today, who might have a computer and looking at these features, they may not be ready to buy a new device, are they ever going to get features like you just mentioned? >> some of these devices do require this new pc with the new mpu. you need that new performance. you need that new ai model on that device, so this will be a reason to go buy a new pc. >> qualcomm is obviously the new chip maker here.

you also mentioned amd coming out with similar products. the one chip company i didn't hear was nvidia. >> they continue to play an important part. what we announced today was the gpu, cpu and these npu's. nvidia provides these fantastic gpu's. in addition, of course to the amazing npu we have from qualcomm and others. >> i believe kelly has a question back in the studio. >> a very pragmatic one. how much will these new pc's cost? >> one of the great things about how we built them is they are very affordable. they start at 999. >> if they're $200 cheaper than the mac book, it sounds like they're meant to compete with them. but what about where the real competition is taking place these days on the iphone.

is there ever going to be a hand held device to that category killer? >> today the focus is definitely on the pc. i think what is great about what we've shown today is the ai models, that architecture is now the future of how these devices will take place. think of that as eventually being able to go to any device, but today, the focus is definitely on the pc. >> you mentioned openai and that gpt 4.0 is eventually going to make its way to windows, sooner rather than later. there's this kind of concern going around with, you know, are they taking safety seriously there? you guys rely a lot on openai's technology. microsoft is a major investor. are you confident in the safety of these products? >> yeah, we have great

confidence in sam altman and the team there. they have great work. that's the whole focus of openai is to really build a great future of ai for the world. we work with them quite a bit, and we also add our own extra efforts that we put on top of that. >> your own safety efforts on top of those, you're saying. then last question. apple got a lot of mentions in that presentation. i assume that was deliberate. do you feel like they're behind? >> well, i feel like we definitely have a very clear value prop. we have 60% faster than a mac book. $200 cheaper. i think we have the lead now in the world of ai pc's, and we have these superpowers you can do on the pc's, you just can't do on a mac book. >> tyler kelly, i'll send it back over to you. >> steve, thank you very much. yusuf, thank you as well.

ai is going to make a boone putting chips in those pc's. we'll hear a lot more about those chips over the next few weeks, and who better to explain it than kristina. >> window's 10 is set to expire or lose support in 2025. the average pc cycle is four years. our company bout laptops during covid when everyone was working from home. the assumption is at the end of this year, you're going to see a lot of buying. what better time to offer an ai pc than at this time? you buy locally, and they also argue too, there's a new chip in there, the npu, which is a neuro processing chip. >> npu, gpu is for graphics and images. nvidia realized hey this is

also good for ai. then the cpu, that does all the back end work. then this new chip, npu. i say new, apple has been using it a long time, that focuses solely on ai. so they're really focusing right now on battery life and power, because there's no killer app. that's what's missing in this conversation. >> that thing he said about recall sounds wonderful. >> so you're buying in the hype. >> they have this power that would basically allow you to go back and check hey, someone scatter brained like me, where was the file that had the thing in it? >> i'm asking for a friend. there might be some people who wouldn't want that. just saying. >> it's all local. >> you're willing to give up personal stuff for convenience, which is what we've done

throughout all the internet. i don't think it's going to stop anytime soon. to your point, that's going to be the major benefit. you can find an email tyler wrote to you seven months ago on a very specific topic like industrials, for example. it's all saved there. that's why he brought up privacy. security is a big thing too going forward. but $1,000 is not cheap. it's no the nothing. lenovo, there's are priced at 1200 minimum. that's a delay. >> did i ever send you an email on industrials? >> i'm not sure. rings a bell. >> industrials are back in vogue almost in a way. i just wanted to switch it up there. >> you do wonder if they can make the case for changing the hardware. nvidia, that stock is moving

higher. the report wednesday, we've got some analysts raising their price. >> i'm calling it a love fest, just because every day, they're actually increasing estimates which helps the value of nvidia. that's considered, hey, nvidia is still a good value when you look at it over the course of the last three years or when you compare it to the s & p 500 when we're talking about growth rates, nvidia just keeps growing like crazy. everyone's expecting a b, because data center demand is still so strong. you have all of these big hyper scalers spending money. spending money on creating ai infrastructures within their on countries and then that supply has actually improved on the current chip they're offering in the market. and they have another one coming out, blackwell. analysts believe there's going to be so much demand, even

leading up to the next iteration, that the love fest will continue on. >> i should say, jeff is not part of the love fest. >> momentum trade. here's a name that everyone is already in, and that's why you haven't seen as much movement leading up to the earnings date, which previously, i think it was just last quarter, you did see more of a negative result going into it. so i think the magnitude, we're going to see a b. it's the magnitude. if they're going to increase their guidance going forward, that's really going to be the barometer of where the stock is going in the short term. then june 2nd and 3rd. that's the big one for our audience. there's going to be something. >> thank you, kristina. great to have you here...

eang ospkif ai, openai announcing risks. we'll get the key details in tech check up next. and electricity... are forever in bloom. welcome to beyond. the mercedes-maybach eqs suv.

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welcome back to "power lunch," everybody.

we just learned more about microsoft's ambitions when it comes to ai pc's, and of course you can't talk microsoft and ai without also discussing its relationship with openai, which is going through some drama as well right now. >> tyler, all of the drama, none of the answers. if it feels like deja vu, you're not wrong. some of the people i've been talking to aren't surprised at all by ilya's ouster. he lost a board seat amid the saga. but his exit was quickly followed by another openai employee, which with ilya oversaw the team seeing risks. he was not as quiet on his way

out. trillion dollar companies like microsoft, they really like shiny products, but amid the drama, microsoft is still all in on open ai after pouring in $13 billion. signs of it, not sure what to attribute it to, but it could be some of that drama. i thought it was interesting when steve just asked that microsoft executive, he still had confidence in openai, and the executive said great confidence in sam altman, by name, and the team there. he said that was their whole focus, to build a great future for ai and the world, which is getting, maybe a little harder to argue with all of these departures. >> yeah, how many companies are really vying in -- compared with openai does. how many companies kind of do

what they do? >> that's a good question. so openai develops chatgpt, which is really the foundational model. it's most district rival is anthropic, which was built out of openai. there's a number of others though. an open source model, google, of course, is developing its own llm. someone i was talking to this morning believes these closed language mods are becoming commode commodotised already. maybe they'll start to be sold off, or you'll see more partnerships like the one between microsoft and openai. >> i think it was the one you told me, complexity. >> people love that one. that's not in the same category. they build on top of large

language models. so you can call it an ai wrapper company. although i think they don't want to be called that. >> who's ai do they use then? >> they use everyone. their sort of proposition is they harness the power of many different llm's, to give you the most, comprehensive answer with he follow-ups. >> we always appreciate it. over to kate rogers now for a cnbc news update. iran set its presidential election for june 28th, following a helicopter crash that killed its president. they agreed on the date today, but the decision still needs final approval. iran's constitution calls for a new election within 50 days. the news came as the state department offered condolences to iran, but added, the president's approach to the country remains unchanged. haiti's many airport reopens. right now, a local carrier is

flying in and out of port-au prince. u.s. air carriers are not expected to resume until late may or early june. and ivan boesky dies at age 87. ultimately pleading guilty to insider trading in 1986, paying a $100 million penalty, a record at the time. and serving three years in prison. he was 87. kelly, back over to you. >> kate, thank you very much. kate rogers. still ahead, stalled out. workers at two mercedes-benz plants elect not to inhe w.jo t we'll break down what that means when "power lunch" returns.

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while the s & p is up about 8. >> on friday, workers at two mercedes-benz plants at alabama voted against joining the uaw, despite a vote for joining in tennessee last month. dan is a visiting professor at case western school of management, also a visiting fellow at yale and rutgers. dan, welcome back to cnbc. what's the difference between tennessee and alabama, apart from nick saban? >> and they brought nick saban in to talk to the employees. >> is that true? >> not to vote. well the difference is one is the deep south, and one is formerly a border state. >> so the antipathy to unionization is greater in the farther south you go? is that what you're saying? >> no question.

what are unions? unions represent something foreign from the north, they were associated with the civil rights movement. this is trump country. biden was on a picket line. it's not necessarily a hospitable place. then you have politicians and others that have made these sort of lucrative incentives to bring them in, promising them non-labor. >> not to have unions come into the shop. >> yeah. well they give them tax incentives and all kinds of things and they have an economic model. that economic model doesn't include unions. there's no question that for the uaw, it's a higher haul certainly. >> what does this tell you about the ua w's efforts to unionize places in he south, and also non-u.s. automakers anywhere in the country. >> the southern strategy, so to speak is what they're calling it. first of all, i was surprised that as many voted for the

union as it did. the union lost 57 to 43%. but in fact, i was surprised how many voted for it. what this says is the uaw has a road to follow. but i have faith or confidence, based on my reading that the uaw will be right back. they've invested $40 million in organizing 37 plants in 16 states. >> so they can come back and stage another vote how long? soon? >> no, they have do wait a certain amount of time. also there are charges that there's been unfair labor practices committed the uaw has filed legal action both in the u.s. and in germany. >> against mercedes. >> against mercedes. the interesting thing here is the uaw has friends in germany. after all, germany deals with unions all the time. so it's going to be a different situation when the uaw tries to organize, let's stay factories that are headquartered in korea. they have a far more

historically tumultuous relationship with their unions. >> those stats we showed were interesting, that the uaw is at its lowest level since 2009. anecdotally, you feel like there's been a pick up. but the numbers show, not much of a move in terms of total union membership in this countries. >> you're right. as a matter of fact, the trajectory is downward. if you go back 20, 30 years, you see 20%, now it's 10%, and in the private factor, it's less than 7%. keep in mind something else. this is an industry that in the 1960s owned 90% of the market share. >> the u.s. auto industry. >> the u.s. auto industry. today it's at 40%. so what's going on in the auto industry has made them vulnerable to strikes. and vulnerable to union action. so the uaw is in a precipitous time. >> the uaw not only wants to do

good things by workers, the uaw wants members. >> absolutely. >> if they're stymied at getting new members in the south, where are they going? where are they looking to unionize, to recruit new members? >> well, they're looking at education. college campuses. workers. >> teaching assistants. >> and students. >> student workers. >> yeah. and they're looking at museums. they're looking at cultural organizations. but the real action is still in the non-union labor auto plants. you know, there's 158,000 workers among these non-union plants. they can't afford to turn their back there. interestingly enough, the evidence shows that being in a union does raise your wages. it does add to engagement. it's associated with democratic involvement. there are a lot of good things about unionization. >> why do you think they didn't win this time? >> i think that we tend to

underestimate the impact of culture. that the individuals at alabama, first, the uaw has had some severe significant corruption issues several years ago, and a monitor put them under some control. you have a new leadership in the uaw, activists, using technology. far more agile, if you will, but organizing. i also think under the administration has been very favorable, as has the president. and you also have -- it's very interesting -- >> but that would argue in favor of the union prevailing. >> it's true, but there's also fear. first of all, they ran a very strong no-agent campaign. keep in mind that several generations ago, individuals from this part of the country go up to the north to get good

jobs, and all of a sudden those jobs have dissipated. there may be some overlap. >> so the southern worker fears that what has happened in detroit, in ohio, in toledo, could happen to them, partly as a function, or relation to union representation. >> and in addition, their politicians are saying exactly that. >> we have to leave it there, dan. thank you for the explanation. >> my pleasure. >> good to have you back. >> meanwhile, there's still time to join the cnbc financial adviser summit. we'll hear from top investors about the bull market. can it last much longer? scan the qr code on your screen to register. we'll be right back.

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killed in a helicopter crash. it's not having an impact on oil prices today, but here to explain the consequence of the action. >> the interim officials are part of the establishment, so there's not expected to be any type of change in policy. then when there are elections, it's likely to be a low turn out, and they'll ensure that a hard liner is elected. the bottom line is they're not expecting any big policy changes here. that's why we're not seeing a big response with oil today. rebecca babbitt told me she thinks it's part of the commodity we may be seeing. today we saw gold and copper both hit record highs as well as orange juice futures. a little bit of a different story there. but just as this commodity euphoria trade unwinds, it could get caught up in that. take a look at gas, january, we

see $2.74. storage still is elevated. finally, next decade, this stock is up about 12% today, this comes as adnoc took a stake in next decade's rio grande terminal in texas. >> you shouldn't normally have gold and copper rallying together. copper is supposed to be sensitive to economic growth. gold is supposed to do better if we're talking about economic weakness, or that sort of thing. it does start to feel like there's had big chase. better growth in a sense that you have to be in materials. >> yeah, and people looking elsewhere. once they get highs, you have more and more interest, like from retailer investors. it kind of fuels it, and at a certain point, something's got to give. that could be for oil. although june 1 is the opec meeting. >> does anyone think it's been

part of this euphoria? >> i think that's because it's a bigger understanding that geopolitical risks right now are not really factoring in. it could be subject to the down side of then trader cta's, especially those trend followers, getting out of the trades. maybe not that much upside, but still could be do the down side. >> we'll see. time will tell. >> thank you very much. still ahead, our trader wants to sell, sell, sell. we celebrate asian native and hawaiian pacific narrative month. here's astrazeneca group ceo and executive director. >> i was born and brought up in east africa, and my parents are of indian dissent. i think what makes me really proud is that i have a wide

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. >> all right

let's go with three stock lunch. here with our trades is new construct ceo david trainer. welcome, david first up we have microsoft shares gaining ahead of its build developer conference your trade on microsoft. >> good to see you again microsoft, we love the company it's a great company, huge cash flows, super high return on invest to capital. in the last few years we think the arms race is catching up to this business, return on invested capital down, used to rank in the top 20 in the s&p 500 and now they're barely in the top 50 and we think it's time to take gains the valuation has kind of gotten ahead of the stock and despite the supercash flow business, great return on invest to flow capital we think it's time to sell. >> not many are that brave johnson controls in the news after elliott builds out a stake of more than a billion dollars, shares up about 2.5% you got a trade on this one? >> yeah. it makes sense that some

acti activists would come in and try to clean things up this is a poorly run business and we've seen that auditors flagged concerns with internal controls, so the numbers look bad. this gets our unattractive rating which means the accounting earnings are misleading they're going up and looking positive while the economic earnings are negative and on top of that seeing a really expensive valuation. so when the auditors are saying we're flagging weakness in internal controls, that's another sort of reason to avoid the stock. unless the activists come in and save the day, this stock is definitely a sell as well. >> very interesting. let's move on to shares of hims & hers health. they are surging about 30% after the telehealth company introduced access to compounded glp-1 injek slps that expands on the weight loss program it launched in december your trade on hims & hers, full of pronouns here

>> that's right. a lot of pronouns. we think this is a sell. it's an overpriced business. interesting, novel concept, but not one that has really strong barriers to entry. we think this business is going to be commoditized quickly and the valuations imply that it's going to go from a negative margin business to a very high positive margin business returns on invested capital are close to zero or negative. and the current price implies they'll go for like 50 plus percent which is more than facebook and microsoft and hca for that matter. more than triple hca we think the valuation is pricing in more than enough good news, too much good news, and we recommend that investors sell this as well. >> david, thank you. threesells thanks very much new construct, we appreciate it. >> always hear us on our podcast. be sure to follow and listen to "power lunch" on any platform. we'll be right back.

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>> welcome back. let's give you a look at the dow. it's stabilized about 167. 39,836 after closing above 40,000 on friday. >> and jpmorgan is the worst performing stock in both the dow and s&p down 4% now as it's been moving steadily lower throughout the day on the back of comments from ceo jamie dimon during their investor day he told shareholders his retirement timeline is not five years anymore and jpmorgan is on the way with succession plans. dimon made it unlikely they would buy back stock and boom -- >> take the two of those together he is by any standard the gold standard in sfwbanking. >> target says it's going to lower prices on 5,000 frequently purchased items in its stores in

a bid to both stay competitive and give consumers relief. the retailer says the price cuts are concentrated in grocery staples like milk. >> meat. >> this says bread and fruit and vegetables, paper towels, baby wipes and diapers. expect to save consumers millions of dollars this summer. there you go. >> unless it was meade, like the old drink. i was thinking about that with stephanie link and these price cuts if they drive traffic it will help. red lobster filing for chapter 11 bankruptcy among the reasons blamed dif calls macro, bloated footprint and failed or ill-advised strategic initiatives like the trip initiative that increased business too much

and they lost $76 million last year there's a lot of operational problems here. >> yeah. >> it's sad. y it used to be a great place. >> thanks for watching "power lunch," everybody. appreciate it. >> nasdaq higher big week tore technology. >> nvidia. >> starts right now. >> thanks so much. welcome to "closing bell." i'm scott wapner live from post nine of the new york stock exchange this record run for your money and the so-called everything rally can keep going we'll ask our experts over the final stretch including erin brown who will join us in just a second take a look at the scorecard with 60 minutes in regulation today. nasdaq is leading. nvidia back to $950 a share. a couple days ahead of its earnings apple not far away from a new high as its comeback continues wealth financials are in