this is "gps," the global public square. welcome to all of you in the united states and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria. i'll be back late we are the rest of the show. but first, let me bring in jim sciutto, who is here to tackle the latest news. jim? >> thanks so much, fareed. and hello to all our viewers. today on the show, ukraine is fighting back and hard. how far could ukrainian counteroffensive go? also, china's leadership is faced with crisis after crisis, from a troubled economy to a devastating heatwave. and don't forget about taiwan. is president xi in trouble? then, fareed will be back late we are the story of a country that is trying to do

what some think america needs to do. that is, write a new constitution. and then he'll speak to one of the top scientists responsible for the web telescope and those awesome images it has captured. these videos show explosions that have happened in the last two weeks at russian military facilities in crimea, which has been occupied by russian forces since 2014. one attack at an air base destroyed at least seven russian warplanes. ukraine has claimed responsibility for that attack and two others, according to an internal ukrainian government document obtained by cnn. is this evidence that kyiv is launching a counteroffensive against russia? and could it gain back territory illegally overtaken by moscow? joining me now is retired u.s. army general mark hurtling, a national security and military analyst for cnn. good to have you on this morning. >> great to be on this morning,

jim. >> first, let's speak about these attacks in crimea, territory controlled by russia for some eight years now. does ukraine's ability to strike behind russian lines in crimea, around very sensitive military facilities there, show its strength, how much strength and how much of a setback is this for russia? >> the last couple of weeks have been fascinating. when a force changes from defensive to offensive operations, which is what is happening with ukraine, it changes the dynamics of the battlefield, by going on the offensive, which they have done, ukraine has regained the initiative and can strike at the time and place of their choosing, instead of just waiting for the russians attack. russia now realizes they have to defend in more places which further drains their forces from the east and other areas in the south. that kind of action puts the enemy on its back foot and makes it very tentative to take part

in more operations in the future. and finally, jim, what i would say is, you know, as you well know, you have been with soldiers a lot, you know that war is mostly an issue of morale and will. the russian army has already been assessed to have terrible morale for a variety of reasons. their leaders have been killed, poor support for the troops, confusion as to the rmission. so these attacks will further cause russian morale, while improving the ukrainian morale because they see the effects of their attack. >> president zelenskyy has been projecting a larger scale offensive in the south. are these attacks -- and some gains we have seen around kherson for instance -- are they disruptive or could they lead to ukraine actually taking back and controlling territory that had been taken by russia? >> can i say all of the above? you know, in using precise military doctrinal language, a lot of people have been talking

about a large counteroffensive or a large-scale counteroffensive by ukrainian forces. i don't see that happening any time soon, because i don't think the ukrainian army, from what i used to see over there, dated for sure, but i still don't think they have the capability to conduct a large-scale counteroffensive. but they will continue to strike, continue to atrit, and do a lot of smaller scale counterattacks, which will drive the russians crazy. in kherson province and other places in the south. it's just going to cause more confusion on the part of the russian side. >> the pentagon announced this week a new -- yet a new nearly billion dollar assistance package for ukraine, including ammunition for the high mobility artillery systems known as himars. i have spoke on the you and others about this. they describe this as a

potential game changer for the fight. the accuracy, the mobility, the ability to strike behind russian lines, ammo depots, et cetera. i wonder, in your view, how big of a game changer and could it be a parallel to the effect we saw of those javelin anti-tank missiles they had in the early stages of the invasion? >> yeah, saying the himars were to phase two as the javelins were to phase one is the right comparison to make. but if we can expand with what was in that $750 million package just delivered, the most recent tranche, is certainly more himars rocket pods, which tells me the ukrainians are having great effect with their striking targets. and everyone is focused on himars. that's all you hear on the internet. but most importantly, as we start transitioning into this

phase sthree, which has ukraine conducting small-scale counteroffensives, some of the other things in that package were more drones, more humvee vehicles, which are critical for the ukrainian army to maneuver around. and we talked about javelins before. in this package, there were 1500 tow missile systems. that's a larger anti-tank system than the javelins. it's for defensive operations, and it's different. you also have that and a lot of mine clearing stuff. so you're seeing the movement of ukrainian forces as they attack the defending russian forces in some of these southern places. >> yeah, that weapons package, as you know better than me, gives an indication of what the u.s. and ukrainians believe the next phase of the war will be like. i wonder how concerned you are to see this open warfare,

shelling around europe's largest nuclear plant around zaporizhzhia. we saw similar circumstances around chernobyl earlier in the war. are you concerned that this is deliberate by russia, that it is in their interest to cause something as severe as a nuclear accident here? >> absolutely. there's a lot of experts who say the zaporizhzhia power plant is certainly dissimilar to what we saw at chernobyl. but it's still a nuclear power plant. it still has six reyak fors with nuclear rods. it still has the capability to emanate a cloud of nuclear radiation that can travel with the wind. not the kind of explosion that was made famous at chernobyl. but still, the effects of nuclear contamination. yeah, this is another indication, jim, as we talked so many times about, about russia's war crimes.

they are using a governmental public facility to protect their forces, you know, set it up for potentially a false flag operation. but still, this is extremely dangerous, and it's not a military target. this is a civilian target. you know, this is something that could hurt a large swath of both ukrainian and potentially either european or russian citizens, depending on which way the wind blows. >> general, thank you for joining us this morning. >> thanks, jim. appreciate it. we have two more urgent stories coming up this hour. will we have a revived iran nuclear deal? plus, china's problems are compounding. we'll be back in just a moment. you may be missing a critical piece. preservision. preservisision areds 2 contais the only clinically proven nutrient formula recommended by the national eye institute to help reduce the risk of moderate to advanced amd progression.

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china is in the midst of just a scorching heatwave that is putting real pressure on the country's electrical grid. it comes as china's central bank is cutting key interest rates to stimulate the country's flagging economy, which has suffered from shutdowns due to beijing's zero covid policy, and on the geopolitical front, beijing still smarting from nancy pelosi's visit to taiwan, which answered with massive live fire military exercises around the island. china's economic growth rate has fallen back to earth. what do all these setbacks mean for china and the rest of the world, as the era of china's unending growth, is it over for the world's most populace country? i'm joined now from hong kong. david, thank you for joining me this morning. >> hello. >> david, i wonder if you could

give us a big picture appraisal of where these headwinds stand with china, because these are not headlines folks outside are used to hearing in terms of negative economic circumstances. you have the zero covid policies, caused a lot of shutdowns, you have this heatwave. you have a real estate crisis going on. is this an economic crisis for china? >> it's not a crisis yet, but it's a real economic slowdown with some real economic pain in the chinese economy. and that has political consequences. china's communist party, they're obsessed with control at the best of times. but this is an extremely sensitive year for the top leader xi jinping. towards the end of the year, we'll have one of the most important meetings the communist party has had in a generation. he's expected to kind of tear up the rule book and to ask for a third term as leader. to do that, he needs everything to be humming along nicely. as you say, china's economic growth has been something we

have taken for granted and also the chinese people and communist party have also. >> is this a short-term bump this the road for china's economic growth or part of a longer term slowdown? we were used to for a number of years double digit growth, more recently high single digit growth, though there's been doubt about the veracity of china's numbering. but is this part of a longer term for china? >> you have to look at the different headwinds. it is true that china is having power cuts because of this heatwave. a lot of countries are having a hot year. that is causing problems in china like everywhere else. but it's not a signature policy of xi jinping that has caused that. if you look at the property slowdown, that's a direct result of xi jinping's own decision. the market was overheating, too much borrowing, and it was time

to rein that in. that is leading to people refusing to pay their mortgages, because property companies are starting to teeter, and zero covid as you mentioned is also really slamming consumer confidence. it's really kind of gripping china tightly at the moment. you're seeing a lot of people not taking that holiday or business trip because of the risks of getting stuck are really high. >> china is extremely sensitive to any signs of domestic unrest or opposition to the government. i know you have seen it during your time there. people refusing to pay mortgages, how does china respond to that? >> so china is always about control, but always about looking at the numbers. as long as most people look happ happy, they're willing to impose pain on a small number of people. as long as the number of people

being locked down is small-ish, and most people think they're doing better than america in terms of preventing covid death, they will accept that. those refusing to pay their mortgage, those are it willed. the secret police are watching that like a hawk, stopping it from becoming a nationwide movement. but we have not seen the top central government intervening. the stimulus is much more top down, the traditional tools that the communist party reaches for when they're worried about the economy slowing down. >> you mentioned how xi jinping isable about to tear up the ru book by breaking the two-term presidency. do these headwinds, economic and geopolitical as well, given tensions over taiwan, do they threaten that plan?

is it possible those plans get derailed or sit full steam ahead? >> so the normal country with elections, he would certainly be facing a rough ride. if he was about to run for office, there are definitely headwinds. but one of the signatures of xi jinping's first ten years in office is the systematic, ruthless elimination of any rivals, any rival factions. and so all the signs of the moment is, if there were real rivals to xi jinping, this would be a moment for them to try and criticize some of his big, bold, risky decisions and this big ask of another five years at least potentially ruling for life as you say. the fact that we're not hearing those voices, we're not seeing retired leaders or red princelings giving speeches, the kind of things you see in china when there's unhappiness at the top, we're not seeing that. it could be that xi jinping is right in his bet that he's

pulling off a real concentration of power of the sort that we have not seen since the days of chairman mao. >> there is some concern that given domestic troubles and challenges that xi might attempt to distract by creating an international crisis, particularly around taiwan. we saw those military exercises that china launched in response to nancy pelosi's visit there. is there concern in china, is there concern in the region of -- if not a full invasion of taiwan, that some sort of wag the dog scenario to distract from troubles at home? >> jim, you're right as a general principle, when dictators get in trouble, there's always a fear that they'll start a war. you can argue that one of the reasons vladamir putin invaded ukraine, he was suffering domesticicly, and it was a way to get russia to rally around the flag. china is a very different beast

from russia, though. though xi jinping and vladamir putin share a lot of things about their view of america, the west, the world, china is bound into the global economy, the supply chains that run right into america and the rest of the world, in a way that russia just is not. so i think a reason to be calm about a war any time soon like this year, an adventure, if you like, is that it would just compound those economic problems at precisely the moment that xi jinping needs things to be calm. so although we have seen tremendous amount of saber rattling, i don't think that an adventure would solve his economic problems, it would make them worse. >> david rennie, thank you for joining us this morning. >> thank you. coming up next on "gps," is the nuclear deal with iran on the brink of revival? we'll try to get to the bottom of that key question in a moment.

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let's talk about iran and the possibility that it will agree once again, along with european and international powers, to a deal that would restrict its nuclear program. a top russian diplomat said friday a revival deal could be reached "in the coming days." a senior state department official told me this morning, we have closed some gaps, but some still remain. now, remember, the original deal between iran, the u.s., uk, france, russia, china and germany, was signed in 2015. three year later, president trump announced he was withdrawing from the deal unilaterally and led to its unraveling. since then, iran has increased

its reserve of highly enriched uranium. what would a return to the deal mean for washington, tehran, and the rest of the world? can the west work with russia and china in the midst of growing tensions over ukraine and taiwan? joining me now are my guests. kareem is a senior fellow at carnegie, and dina is an adviser on the middle east. good to have you on. dina, i wonder if i could begin with your assessment of what would be a remarkable development, that this deal resurrected between the u.s. and iran, but also involving two countries, the u.s. and the west, having real issue right now with china and russia, what are the chances? >> it's hard to say. let's just say that we are closer than we were a few weeks ago, but we're not quite there yet. there are some real outstanding issues that remain. things like sanctions relief or some of the guarantees that the

irani ian side has been asking for. and they still need to be negotiated. iranians came back with a substantive offer, which the u.s. side is now considering. so we'll have to see what the u.s. comes back with. >> kareem, in effect, this is an exchange for economic relief for an iranian regime and country under severe economic pressure to reduce again its stockpiles and lengthen, in effect, the breakout time, the time between today and when iran could reach a nuclear weapon. do you see those issues being overcome? and if so, would that be remarkable in your view? >> jim, i think it's clear that the biden administration desperately wants to revive this deal, and iran can't reverse its economic decline, if it doesn't revive this deal. we should make clear that the biden's administration of the goal wasn't to revert back to status quo and get the deal of

2015. their goal was to get a longer and stronger deal. so if, indeed, we are able to revive this deal, that's not the finish line. that's not when we give up. the administration is then going to have to make an extra push to not just try to get that longer and stronger deal, but also a strategy to counter iran's regional aggression. >> that, of course, as you mentioned, the sun setting of this agreement has been one of the key criticisms of not just republicans but democrats in this country and others. dina, in the meantime, iran, as we mentioned, has barreled closer to a breakout point, vastly increasing its reserves of highly enriched ed o ed o. so could that improve regional security? >> it would address the main concern of the international community right now, which is iran's nuclear program.

without the nuclear deal, iran's program expands uncontrolled and unconstrained, and that's a real problem to. the region, the nuclear program is an issue, but also iran's activities in the region are nefarious and problematic, and those need to be addressed. but we're talking about just the nuclear deal. and we need to understand the nonproliferation value of this nuclear deal, that it will constrain iran's nuclear program so it can talk about everything else. >> in terms of nonproliferation, kareem, would it at least for a time, if not address, push off the desires of other nations in the region, such as saudi arabia, made nervous by iran's nuclear program of pursuing their own nuclear weapon? >> jim, putting a lid on iran's nuclear program is a good thing.

but, again, it's not a comprehensive strategy. i think with regards to regional countries, they would say they're not worried. saudi arabia, the uae, they're not worries about iran getting nukes, but about iran's precision use of missile, rockets and drones. so if, indeed, this deal is revived, i don't think it necessarily is going to trigger neighboring countries, u.s. partners in the region, to amp up their nuclear program. but i do think that the concern that is a legitimate concern of regional countries is we're essentially unleashing iran economically to double and triple down on all these proxies and the rockets, missiles and drones, which they are using daily. >> speaking of proxies, we have seen the extent of iran's aggression far outside the region. this is a week where just

astounding comments from tehran at a minimum, seeming to justify, if not claiming the stabbing of salman rushdie, here on u.s. soil, more revelations about a plot against john bolton. dina, would it be wise for the biden administration and western allies and the u.s.' western allies to make an agreement with an iran carrying out activities such as that? >> i mean, you don't make an agreement with countries that you trust and get along with, you make agreements with problematic actors in order to address the problematic behavior. so yes, now is the right time to deal with iran. we have to be realistic. iran, like i said, is a problem attic actor. but by getting back into the nuclear deal, we're addressing one problematic dimension of its behavior. that doesn't mean it prevents us from addressing the others. it just means the nuclear issue will be taken off the table so

we can focus our attention on the other things iran is doing. >> a remarkable factor of this deal, kareem, as you know, is that two of the players are russia and china that signed non2015. if resurrected, they would be players once again. i'm told the secretary of state discussed the iran nuclear deal with the chinese foreign minister during a regent visit to bali. can the u.s., its european allies, i don't want to say stand with, but do business with, particularly russia in light of its invasion of ukraine, but also china with tensions over taiwan? >> jim, even though china and russia are commonly luched tog -- lunched together, china's china wants to ensure the free flow of energy from the middle east. they don't want conflict that would disrupt it. so removing the sanctions

against iran benefits china very much. i would argue russia has very different interests. russia, as isolated as it's been in modern history. iran competes with russia in global oil and gas markets. so i would argue an isolated iran, which is a thorn in the side of the united states, can actually be useful for russia. so i don't think it necessarily, you know, it's in russia's interests to see an isolated iran. but as you said, by virtue of the fact that there's no direct dialogue between the united states and iran, the united states has had to communicate through iran, through russia, through china, through our european allies. >> remarkable relationships, no question. thanks for joining me. coming up next on g.p"gps," fareed will be back.

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234 years ago this summer, the constitution of the united states of america was ratified. there's been a lot of talk in recent years about whether it needs some other refresh or wholesale rethinking. well, the nation of troy will soon reach the final phase of a push to change its own governing document. on september 4, citizens will vote on whether to accept a radically different constitution from the one that currently governs them. it's been a fascinating process, and i wanted to learn about it from chile's former finance minister, who's now the dean of the school of public policy at the london school of economics. andres, welcome. give us -- for those of us who

don't know the background, what is going on? what was chile's old constitution, and why is there a move to create a new one? >> chile had the same constitution since 1980 and was put together during dictatorial times, so it suffers from call it a sin of origin. it has been amended over 70 times, so it's not the same document that was put together back then. but still, when the people of chile were asked a year and a half ago, do you want to change the constitution, almost 80% said yes, we want a new constitution. the question today before the people of chile, what kind of constitution in and is the new proposed next good enough? >> you're right in say they overwhelmingly wanted a new one, but what somehow has ended up being proposed seems quite a radical document, and, you know,

ushers in a whole different set of issues. is that causing some rethinking? first, describe the document and whether it is causing rethinking. >> let me start by the end of what you said which is right. it's causing a lot of rethinking. in fact, a number of figures on the center of politics in chile, even the center left and left have come out against the document. and there are plenty of bits of information that suggest that popular opinion is skeptical, as well. what happened first of all, it is a very long document. at nearly 400 articles, it would be among the long nest the world. secondly, the process of writing it did not leave a lot of people happy, because the 155 members of the convention fought a lot, engaged in all kinds of identity politics of the kind that turns the middle class, middle age and

middle of the road voters against the proposed text. and last but not least, a constitution is really a set of rules for governing politics and the exercise of power. and the system that is being proposed is not workable, would not give chile a better kind of politics. it would be prone to deadlock and confrontation. and increasingly, voters are coming to terms with that reality. >> do you think that this constitution has come about as part of the kind of wave of anti-establishment, left-wing populism that is sweeping latin america? if you look at from the election in mexico, to the elections that have taken place in colombia recently, to chile, of course, and to what appears to be the impending election in brazil, a

much more left wing version. is this part of a larger trend? >> i think it is part of a trend. of course, there are elements that are uniquely chilean. but i would not limit that to latin america, fareed. i think the onslaught against elites, the skepticism of established parties, the tendency to go populist, either populist of the right or left, goes far beyond latin america. you see it in the u.s., the uk where i am right now, you see it in turkey and in india, and in hungary, and in poland, and a bunch of other countries around the world. the genesis of the current text that is being proposed to chileans in the referendum, is very much, you know, linked to identity politics and populism. >> now, chile has enjoyed the fastest economic growth and the strongest economic performance of any latin american country for three decades now. and people would sometimes joke

that chile was an east asian country that just happened to be in latin america. do you think that robust economic performance would be imperilled if this new constitution came into being? >> the answer is yes. but chile's economic and political performance has been declining in say the last half decade or decade. the really fast growth happened in the '90s and in the beginning of this century. chilean growth has been declining, stagnating even you might say. and part of it has to do with decline of politics. even under current arrangements, you have a president who is elected, you know, for a fixed term of office, like the american president. but it is very hard to put together congressional majorities. as a result, it is very hard to put together coalitions to perform whatever needs performing. again, it's all about the rules of engagement, the rules of the

game, the political rules of the game, the ones in this text would xacerbate the problem and mean that chile would grow less than it has been. >> andres, pleasure to have you on. thank you. >> my mapleasure, thank you. next, you know those incredible pictures of space you've been seeing? behind those pictures is an incredible story as well, when we come back. lve together, and find the answer that was right under their r nose. or... his nonose. pain hits fast. so get relief fast. only tylenol rapid release gels have laser drilled holes. they release medicine fast for fa pain relief. and now get relief without a pill with tylenol dissolve packs. relief without theater. so we need something super distinctive... dad's work, meet daughter's playtime. thankfully, meta portal auto pans and zooms

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space as you've never seen it before. after a quarter century in development on earth, the world's most powerful space telescope is now in orbit in space, about a million miles away. and this summer, it released its stunning first images. the james webb space telescope is an extraordinary scientific

achievement built to see parts of space and time unseen, like this image of a galaxy cluster as it appeared 4.6 billion years ago. the expectation is that the webb will be able to look further back in time to the early universe, and the formation of its first stars and galaxies. mike manzle is a lead engineer at nasa and joins me now. mike, thank you. let me first just ask you your reaction to these images, as somebody who has worked so hard and so long on this, what are you seeing and what does it make you -- you know, is this better than you expected, pretty much the same? what is your reaction? >> well, the reaction myself and all my colleagues was of sheer joyful amazement. you know, the images that you see are great, but the amount of detail that's in these images

astounded us. >> are there any images in particular you want to direct our attention to? >> yeah, it's the one the galaxy cluster you had talked about. it's a galaxy cluster about 4 billion light years away. and that image, the thing that made us almost giddy when we saw it, the image actually contains galaxies in it that are further away than huble imaged. but at first reaction you can think well, it looks similar to hubble. but the hubble took 10 to 15 days to get that image. we did it in 12 hours. so this was a taste of things to come. when we saw that image, we all kind of -- we were literally, as i said, giddy. we designed this telescope to see the first galaxies. and when we saw what it did in 12 hours, we knew whatever is

out there, we're going to see this. >> what strikes me is extraordinary about this telescope is on the one side, it faces the sun and has this -- the heat that it's facing is extraordinary. on the other side, it's facing cold temperatures like you can't imagine. describe how that works. >> the sun shield blocks out the sun and lets the cold side passively cool down to almost the temperature of cold space, to the temperature of the telescope, the three metric tons of that telescope has to get down to about 55 degrees kelvin, which is about minus 361 degrees fahrenheit. it has to do that because we're looking in infrared wavelengths. anything that has a temperature like our body temperature would glow. so we don't want the telescope glowing brighter than the images it's looking at. so that big sun shield that we have keeps us in the shade and allows us to cool.

i told people, if that sun shield were sun tan lotion, you would say it has an spf of about 10 million. >> wow. when you think about what this will help us learn, you know, how should we think about what a telescope like this teaches us? again, i hear it and i think, are we going to learn a lot more about the big bang? because we're going back so far in time. >> well, it could potentially tell us some of the conditions in the early universe that could make some infrinferences of the bag and how that early universe fostered galaxy formation. and the other big question that webb is able to answer is looking for planets around other stars that may have signs of biomarkers, signs of elements or compounds that either are

produced by life or necessary for life. so when you think about it, it's possibly addressing two of the most fundamental questions in astronomy -- how did it all begin? and are we alone? >> so when i think of it up there a million miles away, i guess i have two questions. one, what happens if something goes wrong? and what happen it is you run out of gas or fuel or energy or whatever it is that's powering it? >> well, first let me answer the last question, because that's the easiest. which had designed the telescope to have enough fuel for ten years. well, as it is, because we are on such a perfect trajectory and we made some of the early maneuvers right on time, we have well over 20 years of propellent. so propel llent is not our

problem. anything can go wrong in space and we designed contingency procedures for that. but most of us were fairly certain that the biggest risks we faced were in the early days of the unfolding, and that went so smoothly and so great, that most of us feel hey, most of our major risks are behind us right now. we have a fully operational world asset for astronomy. >> so when i look at something like this, mike, it does seem to me, you and your colleagues play a special role. there's so much bad news out there, so much that people worry about. and then here you come along with this astonishing scientific and technological achievement, that's a sign of what the american government, when it puts its mind to it can do really well. but it's also a sign of international cooperation, right? this is not just an american venture. >> absolutely. this is an international collaboration, involving the canadian, european space agencies, various universities.

and it does show when we can work collegiately, what we can do together. over the course of 25 years, myself, a lot of my foreign partners, we became like families. i was always squabbling with someone i knew, as dedicated to the success of this mission as i was. and we got through it all together, and well, you can see the results. >> i have to tell you, this is the kind of thing that leaves me always amazed and in awe. but also very grateful. grateful for all the work you guys have done. so thank you. it's been a pleasure having you on the show. >> thank you, sir. thanks to all of you for watching this program. i will see you next week. you ever wonder why peoplele are always on their phones? they're banknking, with bank of america.

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♪ ♪ i am brian stelter live in new york. and this is still "reliable sources." all right. here we go. one of the biggest media stories of the week is right here. it's the end of this show. cnn has canceled "reliable sources." yes, the longest running program on the network. i have a lot of thoughts about it. but aim going to save those for later this hour. as moez of you know, cnn has a new owner and is making big changes across the company. and there's going to be more