"washington journal" continues." host: jennifer cafarella is here to talk about the u.s. withdrawal from syria. let's begin with the key prslets in the region. who are they and what has been happening before the president made this decision? guest: the key players include turkey, which has invaded northeastern syria, as well as the turkish military. we have a large body of turkish proxy forces which are the main forces conducting the offensive

on the ground. this includes members of the syrian opposition, members of the free syrian army, some of which who have had a historic relationship with the united states. host: they are against bashar al-assad. guest: which makes this a complicated operation because turkey is building a counter assad force, but using that to fight the american local partner in the east. iskey's reason for fighting its leadership is kurdish. there is a kurdish militia that conducts most of the capable military fighting. that is known as the ypg and is affiliate-- a syrian of a wider kurdish movement inside turkey, the pkk. president erdogan has warned the u.s. that the partnership with

the ypg was unacceptable to him, however he has been negotiating for a de-escalation in the northeast. that changed during the call between president erdogan where president erdogan announced he would begin an operation in the east. host: i want to show what the president just had to say about this yesterday. he brought up the issue of turkey. >> very strong talks with a lot of people. we want to bring our soldiers back home after so many years, and the greatest war in the world they are policing. they are not a police force. we want to bring our soldiers back home and we are being very tough on turkey and a lot of others. they have to maintain their own properties, maintain peace and safety, and we will see what happens, the delegation. we are asking for a cease-fire.

sanctions strongest and we have a lot in store in case they do not work, including massive tariffs on steel, shipping steel to the united states. they make a lot of money. host: that was president trump talking about the situation in turkey. we will take your questions and comments on this. you were just talking about some of the major players. what about russia? guest: the russians are stepping in to broker a separate negotiation with turkey and potentially the syrian democratic forces, in an attempt push by the trump administration to de-escalate the situation while we retreat. it looks more likely that turkey will negotiate with russia for a new agreement in the northeast rather than with the united states. an agreement russia brokers will not necessarily end the fighting

, but could begin a new framework where the assad regime moves in and takes over some areas, which is a preferable outcome for turkey. the turks are supporting an anti-assad force but would prefer to see the assad regime in control of parts of the northeast. host: why? guest: because of the kurdish element. turkey prioritizes that above others because it relates to turkish domestic politics and security, in relation to the kurdish insurgency. host: talk about the history. guest: turkey has fought a decade-long war against its own kurdish insurgency which has involved terror attacks. the complication in syria is that the syrian weighing of this kurdish movement has not participated in attacks inside of turkey.

what the kurdish militia has done is built the governing project in the northeast that is a potential model or example of what a kurdish insurgency in turkey would aspire for. erdogan claims this is a military threat. that is a bet disingenuous, but it is a political threat to his -- kurdish autonomous or semiautonomous movement. host: what does russia want? guest: two to place the united states as the key security guarantor. that is a gift to vladimir putin who would like to see nothing and than to step in embarrass the united states as we leave by brokering a deal as a priority for the turkish president, and to use that military and diplomatic position that putin has built to expand

his -- influence throughout the middle east. host: in the middle east, russia sells stability. at what cost to russia, and can they afford it? guest: they may sells stability but they cannot deliver it. that is a key aspect of their involvement in syria. they have prolonged the war. they have one major gain for the but these arent overblown because they have not led to stability. there is a new insurgency in the syrian south which russians help the assad regime gain control of last summer and cannot manage to stay above that. it is certainly a pitch putin makes. there is very few alternatives to putin now with the united states visibly retreating. host: how does iran have a role in this? guest: the iranians support the

syrian president and are fighting with the russians to help him assert as much control as possible, but the russians are using that to build up their military infrastructure in light syria for a couple reasons. they intend to use syria to threaten the state of israel, creating the potential that israel will have to fight on two fronts -- fronts. iran has a wider objective to build a hegemonic and security project across the middle east. they seek to link up there infrastructure in syria with iraq for access that can extend iranian power throughout the region, to threaten israel and compete with the united states. host: explain the religious tribal factions within all of this. guest: the complication with the

religious aspect is the jihadist movement which includes isis, a fundamentalist extreme form of sunni islam, the reason why this is particularly relevant is because the kurdish partner the u.s. has worked with is not a relay gives -- religious organization. they are more secular, and this is a source of friction between the local population, which is primarily sunni muslim arabs. this is a claim turkey can make to be stepping in as a sunni muslim powerbroker to fight against the kurdish forces. it creates apparent legitimacy for the turkish president. the dominant religion of the syrians? muslims, which is a limiting factor for a run's ability -- iran's ability to

expand. iran views itself as the leadership of the entire muslim community, not just the shiite community. tribesach out to sunni and are trying to recruit sunni proxies to attract support away from what the u.s. was trying to build with syrian democratic forces, and diversify the pool of fighters the iranians can call upon. host: jake in massachusetts, independent caller, good morning. caller: good morning. i just have a couple questions. how many nuclear weapons do we have in turkey? who guards them and can we get them out if we go into conflict? have athe u.s. does number of tactical nuclear weapons at the airbase inside turkey. i am not sure of the exact number but it is a few dozen,

according to my knowledge. the u.s. is considering options to remove those weapons from turkey, given the extent to which turkey has aligned itself with russia against the interest of the nato alliance. host: who is watching them? guest: they are under u.s. military control. host: how is that complicated? guest: turkey is a nato ally and not acting like it. the alignment with russia is deeply dangerous to the nato alliance and that is why putin has been reaching out to erdogan as a priority, to create this scene he has now created. i cannot stress enough how much of a victory this is for putin that the u.s. has so visibly surrendered to our own native ally, turkey, by withdrawing. host: how is europe reacting, and do they have any sway? guest: the europeans are rightly condemning this turkish

operation which includes abuses against the civilian population, and is a violation of the security agreement. they have little ability to stop turkey without support, so statements of condemnation are important for the moral aspect in addition to signaling at unitysome continued within some aspect of the nato alliance despite turkey's transgressions. president trump is not willing to put forward american leverage on the table. our european allies will not be able to solve this alone. host: jacksonville, florida, brent, independent. caller: yes. , themment is basically u.s. has no reason to be in

syria. it is not in our national interest. pkk.ve armed the they are communists. it is just an offshoot of the ypg of turkey, and there is no reason any americans should die over something that has been going on for hundreds of years. there fight, not our fight. host: let's take what he had to say. we have no national security interest there. we have been arming the pkk, and they are communists. guest: this is a difficult set of overlapping problems. i understand the desire by many do not have to deal with this problem or not put american lives on the line. however, the unfortunate reality is we had to go into syria because this region was not

capable of handling the threat from isis, which rampaged across iraq and syria and was using that terrain to plan an exit kate attacks in europe and the execute attacks in europe and the united states. our choice was to allow them to continue to expand or to do something about it. onlynited states is the power capable of establishing and leading a global coalition to fight this horrific enemy. the challenge is, we deployed to syria in and is thought -- in an attempt to only focus on isis. you cannot separate isis from these wider problems. these problems are so interconnected that we have to have a regional strategy if we hope to end these wars and get out of the region. host: tim in salinas, tennessee, republican. caller: good morning.

i think the idea for the problems with turkey as we all know that rural nations controlled by dictators want legitimacy. we needare a nato ally, to get nato to force them back to their own borders and if they don't cooperate, expel them from nato. guest: the challenge with turkey is there is no current mechanism to expel a nato member state from the alliance. it does not exist. there is not a precedent. that creates a difficult political challenge to figure out how to do that. the united states could have prevented this turkish operation inside of syria. we had forces along the border. it was a small contingent, but it was enough to deter this operation. it is important that turkish -- turkey only conducted this operation after the withdrawal of forces.

the nato alliance has difficult decisions to make as to how long we can accept turkey as part of this alliance. i don't think that has to be the determining factor as to whether we are able to stand up to turkey. a militaryalked to official who said the president had no choice, it was the president of turkey who called president trump and said, i am going in. i have been holding off and i will no longer, i am going to go in whether you are there or not. guest: the president of the united states always has a choice. we have military options. i returned to the fact that this was primarily a turkish proxy force across the border, this was not the turkish army. there were turkish contingents enabling the operation but it is overblown to say the united states would have to go to war with ally -- with a nato ally to prevent this.

we are taking too much blame ourselves. if turkey had opened fire on us, there ally, i can guarantee america would have won the fight and i don't think erdogan would have been willing to risk the escalation. host: gary in eaton, ohio, democratic caller. caller: hello? host: we are listening. caller: it has been quite a while ago, 10 years or however long before turkey got into this war. the person taped that was in charge of the army, they had taped him and i heard the whole tape. it was only reported in the news that somebody had taped a meeting. what was said in the meeting was, they would have a black

flag attack on their own troops to get in that war. that is how bad they wanted in this to begin with and we supported them. host: who is "they"? caller: turkey. guest: there is no doubt turkey has had a complicated relationship with jihadists in syria. beendministration has willing to tolerate a jihadist movement inside of syria. at the start of the war, they calculated that was an acceptable or ideal vehicle for challenging the assad regime, however over time, the turks became a target of attacks from the islamic state. does not mean that turkey is willing to put fighting the islamic state first. it does mean that turkey is trying to play both sides of this war, even before we get to

the additional jihadist threat in syria, al qaeda. turkey has a deeper relationship with al qaeda which escorted military forces who intervened farther west and the northwestern portion of syria. the president of turkey as playing a delicate and dangerous game inside syria and that is one reason why it is so acceptable -- unacceptable he is taking his proxy forces eastward. host: what was life like for syrian kurds before the civil war started? guest: syrian kurds have had a difficult experience. they were displaced from many villages by president bashar conducted father who a deliberate campaign of the arabization of northeastern anda, resettling arabs

kurdish communities to marginalize them. that is the reason why this moment for syria's kurds is so painful. -- kurdish fact in his factions the united states partnered with is not the only kurdish military force inside syria. they have also fought with the opposition, and the ypg is a complicated card chapter -- kurdish actor because they are politically rep -- repressive. they do not allow competition from other kurdish parties, and this is another one of those aspects of erdogan's claim against the ypg. host: how many of the kurds in syria or in turkey are christian? guest: i don't have a number on that. there is a christian community inside syria and some of it has remained aligned with the president.

some of the christian community has fought with the syrian opposition and the ypg. it is a fractious set of communities because that is what happens in a vicious civil war. inre are kurdish communities the northeast that are displaced by fighting. c as all the other communities that have suffered. host: what have we seen evangelical leaders be vocal about the president's decision to withdraw from syria? why is there this emphasis on christian kurds? do they make up a sizable part of the population? guest: they are a contingent of the syrian democratic forces. they are a victim of the turkish incursion. there are christian militias that fight with the ypg, and those that fight with the assad regime, a complicated and difficult example of the effect

this war has on fracturing these communities. host: dave in jacksonville, florida, independent, you are next. caller: good morning. a phonerump received call from erdogan on sunday night, the sixth, is that correct? host: yes. caller: with the time change, the time zones, that made it october 7 in turkey, which here is a fun fact. that was vladimir putin's birthday. does that have any significance to the people who read those tea leaves, or was it just a birthday present for another one of those strange coincidences that seem to follow this president around? guest: i think it was simply a strange coincidence. it creates an interesting

observation that this was a great birthday present to putin, the u.s. withdrawal, turkey providing the opportunity for the united states to withdraw. i don't think that is the reason for the timing. california,dede, republican. caller: you sound like a neocon, you want a war and you want america involved but i do not want to see us in a quagmire in the middle east. in the 21st century with becoming energy, it is obsolete, totally irrelevant. the kurds have played both sides with russia for years. even the under sector of dutch under secretary of defense said this. have been playing both sides for years. host: let's get a response.

guest: it is true that the ypg has played both sides of this war and that they had a relationship with the assad regime and have now cut a deal with the assad regime. what is important to keep in mind as we deployed to syria to fight the islamic state, a horrific enemy. there can and should be debate over whether that was the right call or whether it is in america's interest to fight. it is important to focus on the fact that president obama had withdrawn from the region in 2011 and made the difficult decision to redeploy to syria and iraq in 2014 because of the severity of this threat. it was a truly horrific enemy that is not gone. there are 10,000 fighters of isis in prison in northeastern syria that are likely to escape and the conditions of chaos and violence that will follow. maybe as a nation, we are

willing to accept this threat of additional suicide bombs in europe and god for bid, the united states. , am not willing to accept that especially because what the united states achieved in fighting the islamic state was relatively low-cost. this was not a major invasion of the middle east. this was a limited deployment of special operations forces to take down the terrific enemy. what was one of the most successful and effective operations with a partner force in the history of the united states military, so we need to give the defense department credit for doing what it did so well and with relatively little cost, and ask the questions about what kind of threats we are willing to accept. host: if isis is able to reorganize, where do they fight and who do they fight in the middle east? guest: isis is reorganizing.

we released a paper earlier this year that demonstrated how isis has been on a path to resurgence before the american withdrawal from syria. this is not an enemy that needs to regroup. this is an enemy that is already fighting, on the upswing, and will accelerate that's resurgence if it is able to get the presidents out -- prisoners out. isis will fight basically everyone in syria, the government in iraq, and will use the resources, the money, the training grounds in the middle east to conduct attacks abroad. they may be attempting to resume those global attacks. host: where do they get money? guest: from extorting the local population, imposing taxes on them as well as requiring communities to pay bribes for protection and avoid further attacks from i says.

the revenue -- isis. the revenue generation is from the local population in addition to selling limited amounts of oil and other quantities such as drug smuggling. , the commander of kurdish forces in syria says they are facing a campaign of ethnic cleansing by turkey. one milliontimated people have already left border towns. whatever the number, it is growing fast. guest: this is an important aspect of what the turks will do in the northeast. third --s turkey's this is turkey's third incursion into northeast syria. displaced kurdish civilians from their homes and turkey began the resettlement of

arab refugees into kurdish homes in a deliberate attempt to change the demographics of that zone. the kurds have seen this movie before. they have suffered one round of tests ethnic cleansing and that is why they are so alarmed. host: where will they go? guest: some will try to enter into iraqi kurdistan, which is an aspect that could become regional. their only option is to flee deeper south into syria where isis resurgence is greater then in the far northeast, or iraqi kurdistan. it remains to be seen whether iraqi kurds are willing to take refugees. host: brian, woodbridge, virginia, independent. caller: i am impressed with your knowledge of this issue. you are the exact opposite of the guess that was on before.

she had a lot of misinformation. the only thing she had that was true was at the turkish president called up trump and said, i am coming in, and trump responded, i will open the door and get out your way. which is very dishonorable, because the kurdish people are our only sincere allies there. they should have a homeland and modern syria and we should have defended them. saudi arabia and israel and turkey are two face did -- faced allies. they are very insincere. israel saudi arabia, and , you have two trump towers in turkey and israel and saudi arabia, he will not betray them. too bad the kurds cannot have an invitation to build one. germantown,

maryland, democratic caller. caller: i want to be pretty quick. sure which, house or saide, jamie jordan, he -- a right to protection but not anonymity. i wish i would have asked the first lady on their, what is the difference between protection and anonymity? host: i think you are talking about the impeachment inquiry. we were return to that and a minute. what are you watching for next? guest: we need to watch what deal president erdogan cuts with the russians for the northeast.

it is possible the assad regime will support the syrian kurdish ypg and a counteroffensive against turkey. i think turkey will seek to limit that support from the kurds to prevent this from escalating. we will see what russia is willing to offer turkey. i am watching to see whether the assad regime makes its own decision, regardless of what russia tries to broker, to fight against the turks. the turks have invaded syria twice before so they have an additional zone of control. i mention this because the syrian kurdish ypg asked the regime for support to defend the northeast and to take the war to the northwest as well. i don't suspect russia wants that greater escalation and it may seek to contain the scope and scale, but the assad regime has the ability to make its own decisions. -- whatat economic

economic sanctions do enough to stop turkey? guest: i don't think they will be enough because it takes time to kick in and have an effect. erdogan thanks he can finish his -- thanks he can finish

how many of you went to the game last night? [laughter] pretty exciting.