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Understanding 9/11tv Campaign 2024 Political Analyst Charlie Cook at Economic Policy Conference CSPAN March 2, 2024 2:57am-3:38am EST
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charlie i'm going to start with you so just lay some background here i've been working on on hoe economy affects the election rather than how the election affects the economy. a gallup poll we have candidates who not only are known to public. and we also have 27% democrats and 27% identify as republicans and the largest swath of voters at this time are independent. >> if people don't know what they are. >> they don't know what they are but what you think from that
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starting point with -- >> i think in retrospect the republican nomination was settled seven or eight months ago. when you have in the case of former president trump somebodye rating among republicans, two-thirds of republicans to lease tell pollsters they think he actually won. big majorities think he's done little or nothing wrong or not anymore than anybody else had that all the accusations are therefore they are disregarded. in that sense like an incompetent president seeking■5j renomination and so that --
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>> one is running against the other. >> some of these people are quite qualified. job applicants where there's a job opening that republicans aren't looking the vast majority of republicans aren't looking to replace trump. if anything they may not realize it but they are auditioning for 2028 then they are for anything else. in terms of the republican nomination that's it and for president biden given where his numbers are and all the other circumstances one might think he might decide not to run. it's kind of late for that. it's not a fast deadline. at this point the chance of him to have the lyndon johnson in announcing in march of 68 which
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is pretty unlikely. we have our matchup. we don't know what no labels is going to do but we can talk about that later. to me just looking at the general election if you have an incumbent president running for re-election the election is generally a referendum on the what's unique about this election is it's the first is was alluded to this is the first election since 1892 that you have back-to-back presence facing off. we founder member grover cleveland and benjamin harrison where cleveland -- harrison was the president cleveland beat him in four years later they flipped it around but when you have back-to-back presence with the unique opportunity to do a comparison shopping like put them next to each other and whether it's the right way of looking at it or not for a lot
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of these swing voters the that 43% we are talking about the call themselves independents-3/4 of them aren't. it's only eight or 10 that are pearly -- truly independent. for them they are basically asking themselves the question was i better off before january 20, 2021 or have been better off since. when you go through the polling data and ask that the policies of trump help you or hurt you and did the policies of light and help you or hurt you and who do you trust more to did a better job, all those things and again i'm not passing judgment on their opinion. trump wins by double digits on almost all of them. there are a couple like abortion. the president does not benefit from the side-by-side comparison.
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which is to. >> you talk about it as one way or the other. please put in a strong third party candidate. i remember where we won the electoral college. there are more than one election around. thinking back to what would that do? >> one thing we have seen over the years third-party candidates they rarely -- they rarely get on election day what the poll said they were going to get
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where people will say i'm going to vote for him and the end some of them decide not to throw their vote away or whatever. i think an independent third-party candidate they can't be victors because of the electoral college. when you've got lets say a dozen states starting with massachusetts who are going to vote democratic no matter what and in 2015 they will vote republican no matter what that up the lion's share of the electoral college votes basically impossible for an independent to get the majority or the house. each state gets one vote and there are no independents in the house so they would be victories -- they would not be victories in the question is who would they pull more from and i■ think most trump voters would walk on hot kohl's and would walk on broke a glass for him
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and when you look at the polling and you asked people their voting for buying the vast majority are voting against trump and not for biden. so i think when you look at how biden won it's really well with independents and really well with moderates and you run the labels for whoever is left it up that. it's hard to see a third-party candidate hurting trump or biden. one last thing is i don't know a single republican p who is worried about and no labels candidate. i don't know when. i know few democrats are petrified wood below -- no labels candidate mike do for biden. president biden is in trouble in a two-way race. it just makes it worse.
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>> one time when we are here in february we had mark zandi with us. >> that was a spirited conversation and i have an enormous amount of respect for mark. we didn't agree a lot. >> no, not at all. we were passing business cards to each other. he has a prediction on who will win. >> yeah he had biden is the narrow favorite and you know would be very, very surprised if president juan the electoral the thing is keep in mind when you see these national polls, right now trump doesn't lead of an an average above point but you have true member the national popular vote come the
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national polls are really important but just as president al gore and president hillary clinton. that's not how you decide who wins. and 2016 donald trump lost the popular vote but he won the electoral college basally by a margin of 78,000 votes scattered across three states michigan and wisconsin public than you. joe biden will won by 4.5 percentage points to 7 million votes but the rally was he was with one by 126,000 votes across four states. what happens as democrats say there's a republican advantage in the electoral college. that's technically true but a this in 48 states all that maine in nebraska is winner take all for electors in each day. once you win the state by one vote you get all the electors. biden won california by a margin
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of 5.1 million votes. in other words 5.1 million votes minus one is flushed down. but they count the national popular vote and it has no effect on the outcome. 2 million in new york 1 million each in illinois and maryland and massachusetts. in the last four elections if you rank ordered state and the numbers of votes numbers one through seven in the last four elections all were state that went democratic. and the same with 2020. it wasn't until you he got to tennessee and texas and alabama that you found any state that any real number of votes and went republican. i think and there are people here were sharper pencils and much higher math s.a.t.s and i have who i figure a democrat
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probably needs to win the national popular by four, maybe five possibly more than that percentage points before that's likely to translate into a collectible college win. when you look at the national polls i would look at them for directional purposes as someone gaining or losing. far more important are these swing states with polls in swing states with six or seven pennsylvania nevada arizona georgia north carolina. that's where it makes a huge difference in her example and bloomberg did that sweep and seven swing states a couple of weeks ago trumpeted all seven by 53 points in each state. so the individual state and electoral college picture is a of a lot grammar for democrats than the national popular vote in the national polling.
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>> you get into where it's going for the swing states and more granular way. talk about that. >> polling was never precise but it's not nearly as bad as it is now. so much of the criticism that we hear is from 2016. the pollsters also to hillary clinton was going to win. well, wait a minute the national polls average had her ahead by three points nationally and she won the national primary by 2.5 percentage points. frankly i think that's pretty good. pennsylvania which by the early voting under their laws back then, so that a state where half the people boat a month or
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so out is less responsive to what's happening in the weeks and days of theo say here. quentin had the worst last month of any presidential candidate in modern history. but there are some others but it's more interpretation. people saying okay head to the national polls and therefore win the election. .. the question is why wouldn't that siphon away the republican?
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>> the thing is, on election day, assuming robert kennedy junior is on general election ballots in the states where he is, is it robert f kennedy junior life long activist, that would pulled more from democrats but robert f kennedy jr. anti- vector conspiracy theorists that would pull more. more from the republican side. the thing is and you don't have the pull that many to be decisive. take stein in 2016 she got next to no votes. but her vote totals in wisconsin but the minute were bigger than trumps the margins in each of the states. i can be small and decisive. democrats and neither side is that torqued up about bobby kennedy junior. sting that might
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knock him back a little bit probably would not be the most popular person thanks giving dinner. we talk about these things you are talking about -- mchugh when i talked about how people perceive theaá economy tt is or isn't helping the current president. first of all i appreciate being here. it's part of an affirmative action program for people who did not do wellin economics 101 and college. [laughter] so i appreciate that. economists talk about the economy and swing voters think about my economy my personal economy but how do i proceed? so with all due respect to this incredibly smart people you
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could have this room and nobel prize-winning economist in terms of what impact of the going to have on the election i would rather look at a cross-section of swing voters. what should and what is is often times different. i think when a president biden d approval late ratings admitted to high 50s through june and jud 49 in august and then in september dropped another handful of points. it has basically been between 37 and 44 ever since. his numbers are not very elastic. i mean good things can happen it doesn't move up much and bad things and it doesn't move much more than that. the case was the economy is getting stronger. it is getting better.
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consumer confidence the approval rating goes up and that's the best indicator whether a presence going to get reelected or not. the economy was getting better and consumer confidence started coming up some in december and a lot in january. we are waiting, waiting, waiting. inflation going up the economic fears along with less then perfect exodus from the kabul airport basically it brought the presidents numbers down into this range. but since then other things have come into play that keep it down. at least so far numbers may start going up tomorrow but i've
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kept it from rising back up as you would expect with consumer confidence going up to the extent that it did. one of the things i like to watch and look at the numbers among independents and watch the independent consumer confidence rate and the gallup numbermong independents and watch that. it is not been particulate responsive. call and charlie for something he said it might've been in 2022 you were arguing about inflation and you said unemployment affects a few people. >> is a cold and heartless statement. what is low unemployment? what is high unemployment? it's a handful of points different and it's horrible to the people involved.
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but it's roughly one 100% affected by inflation. one of the many problems the president has with younger voters is, for a lot of them in their lifetimes there has never been any inflation to speak of. so this is something in textbooks or history booo pay attention but not in life. so that has been particularly damaging, along with other things and let's face it younger voters are less likely than not going to be wild about a 77 old white guy but an 81-year-old white guy who looks 10 or 12 years older and a politics politicsassembly appearance is e important tn sadly that is the case. when we are talking about these two candidates they are big difference in terms of policy
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for the economy a big difference in terms of policies whether you are a woman what, whether you are a man. there is a whole spectrum of things. our none of those things going to matter in november? i think they have surprised some people how much they mattered. is that something we put to the side? >> the abortion issue, when you had elections there were only about where the focal point ford everybody with kansas, ohio. it can be really, really ■zpowerful. when it's thrown in the mix with the economy, inflation, what's going on around the world gets diluted a lot. i think it's a potent issue. there is a feeling the abortion
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issue in the dobbs decision brought out millions of people to vote for democrats in 2022. if that was the case, why were 9.8 million fewer votes cast in that election and the previous one? why that 3.7 million more republic 22 than 18. where did they go? to me, that election was about -- tom and i were teasing about this before my wife is ready to stop referring to certain kind of candidates as wacko. i'm so i've gone with exotic and potentially problematic. [laughter] grossman barlett from your progress you are closer to doesn't candidates for the senate, governor, house, attorney general, secretary of state that were really exotic. [laughter]
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and so somebody -- i might vote for a public on the show i don't like was going on. but that guy was nuts. it's like jumping the shark. i can't do that. and you saw for senate races, for governors races and some of these other really close high profile races where the people in those states and districts this is a big one. some liked it hardcore election denier or something like that made some voters skittish that might have voted for joe or jane generic republican candidate but not for someone they thought was just nuts. that's a technical political science term. [laughter]
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about border voter suppression and how you think that might affect the election. if it has an effect on this eltion. more broadly? >> i wish people in both sides whether it is donald trump talking about whether it's democrats talk about voter suppression. it's a lot of hyperbole going on. you remember president biden was talking abo georgia changing some of their laws and calling jim crow 2.0. most people.
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they don't find too many obstacles. a lot of the fights in the last few years it is changing policy there were exceptions made to the law were republicans take them back to where they7 were in 2018 election in 2016. democrats want to keep it up and 2020. it's not quite as dramatic as it sounds. >> this a lot more news around that. >> i think we should try to make it as easy as possible.
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it's less of a problem than a lot of people like to think. >> let's go further on the other side of it. you got to candidates the american public says were not about their excitement one of them at least a lot.s vok like? and is that an issue in terms of whatever it when people don't go to the polls while they accept the election. i'm not making this partisan. in terms of do we accept this as a valid election at the clinton trump turnout. 2018 was basically a record high midterm turnaround record height
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for a midterm 2020 was record high. 2022 it was high it was not as high as the previous midterm but it was fairly high we are likely to see a low turnout you h thesl figures in the country facing off against each other it's something to worry about if you are a democrat and sing some of the numbers on african-americans and latinos more mail than female underperforming historically. young voters that have gone more democratic less than enthusiastic. this a lot the democrats should be worried about the selection. how much of that need to change
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shared them with you. >> i wish you split your number by party. does also illuminate things in a way. it's a peak in january talked about a little bit people this room we've gotten through it we don't like to sit is going to turn on. the tech bubble with low unemployment. we had quali for a period of time the straight and narrow. there is a sense out there
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nobody wants to go all the way there. but there is a fli potential ine economy could resemble that if inflation were to come down and productivity stays strong. there could be something that would make people feel better. i do think about the things that change over the ark of the millennial life and genz. you have to have one of each. they graduated into -- might millennial graduate high school with the economy still subpar performance. there is the global financial crisis that came of age at the time after 911 which of course i was said in many people in this room are in. the multiple wars i look around the world if you want to buy ahp to buy a house. that's a premium of the american dream. it's pretty privileged.
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>> i never understood it never seen so much love and my daughter ever. she is too young. not 35 yet. anyway it is interesting to see they have gone through a lot of things that weren't so great. and here they had within their reach the a pity me of the american dream of homeownership coming out of the pandemic and they lost it. it really does resonate what you say about inflation. if no inflation is slowing people don't care they want. [inaudible] the cost of living is not gone down. it's not going to down for most things. it is what it is.
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the economy is and always has been important. but there are other things that are also important. the thing i think should scare my democrat friends, my wife that when you do ask these questions whether it is the national poll like the wall street journal poll or whether you are talk with the "new york times." the policies of trump helped you personally or hurt you personally? trump helped 49. hurt, 37. biden helped 23 or 53, look at swing states same question "new york times" poll. trump helped 51, hurt 34. biden helped 35, hurt 53. i could go to the nbc poll a couple weeks ago.
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there is a view of how things they remember how things were before january 20. you could argue whether they ought to feel that way or not. there is a rosier thing there and the world seemed less chaotic. i'm still having a hard time wrapping my arms around the most disrupure in american political history and somehow it is a representing stability and a better time. i will let you know what i figure that out. >> tell me what drug you are on when you do it. [laughter] brexit brings up something else. looking at not how the economy affects the election but how the election could affect the economy. and they got talking about specific individuals with this uncertainty issue.
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and you sort of touched on that uncertainty. we know exactly what these two candidates represent. we know exactly how they will move forward on policy. but one does introduce uncertainty even though we know with how we deal with the rest of the world. how the world perceives us. that can have major economic implications. >> absolutely true. i think a major factor is what is the governing configuration after the selection? if donald trump wins as he is the favorite right now. republicans win a majority in the senate which is probably about an 80% chance right■ now. if republicans when the house and that's basically 50/50. and you can remember back to 17 and 18, if it is let's say trump
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wins republicans in the senate. the house which i think is a coin flip and i know there are coattails but there's also hedging your bet. if it dem own one, have a one legged stool that is a somewhat different situation. it matters whether somebody, and all of the different combinations of outcomes the only one you can kind of rule out is the democratic trifecta. with west virginia joe manchin not running is going to be hard anyway. that means six other states trump carried at least once that democrats would have to win all six of them. and two of them -- the question really is how big of a republican majority there is. keep in mind once west virginia
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is done republicans don't need to win. the 50/50 and the vice president breaks the tie edges on 2021. if you wear a blue jersey this is a very certain situation. old-fashioned republicans that are real happy with where things are either. i am sort of used to giving talks and lately 80% of the crowds bummed out. some are democrats some are republicans. >> so what would be the biggest surprise bween a election?
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and how the election turns out quick slide water go down the wrong way. if democrats held the senate's i would be flabbergasted. ing the presidents numbers really behaving in a way that one might guess with rising consumer confidence i would be kinda surprised but again the economic concerns help bring it down. i think there are other things the whole age thing, the sort of what's going on, on the border. who is in ctcharge and all this kind of stuff i think that started being like a wet blanket laying down.
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so even the economy coming enout might not. if numbers get started going up tomorrow. it would have to improve a lot to win the national vote by four or five percentage points. >> who would be your biggest surprise who we could be voting for was some change of events? >> i don't think it's a good taste to go there. you are done with the 77-year-old and an 81-year-old. all kinds of things could happen, the president could change his mind or whatever but i don't think there will be any political or legal event. donald trump's would have a majority of the delegates in the next four weeks. anybody is holding out for thats year. people holding out keeping a candlelit for that you to have
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to replace the candles. it's not real likely. that's on is hefty in persuasive. >> or charlie, i always appreciated progress you don't laugh you cry. >> there you go. i want to thank charlie. >> thank you, thank you for including me, thank you. noises]
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