from washington, d.c. and across the country. coming up wednesday morning, we'll discuss the conflicts in the middle east, aid to ukraine and other congressional news of the day with the virgin islands delegate stacey plaskett and pat ballot and we talk about the fallout of iran's attacks on israel over the weekend, the response from washington and the potential risk for u.s. troops in the middle east. c-span's "washington journal" join in the conversation wednesday morning on c-span, c-span now, our free mobile video app or c-span.org. >> friday night watch c-span's 2024 campaign trail, a weekly roundup of c-span's campaign coverage, providing a one stop shop to see what candidates are saying to the voters along with firsthand accounts from political reporters, updated

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host: first guest is david wassermann with political report, their senior editor elections analyst here to talk about campaign 2024 and the issues at hand. mr. wassermann, good morning. guest: good morning. host: who controls the house and senate after november. i know still several months away plus what are we seeing? guest: it's a fascinating race, pedro. the democrats need four seats to pick up the house majority. right now the outlook at the presidential level is very shaky for president biden and democrats. the outlook in the senate is fairly bleak with democrats playing pretty much exclusively defense on the senate map but in the house there is a ray of hope for democrats, and right now the counts 221 republicans, 214 democrats effectively. there are a few vacancies which means four seats would get democrats to 218. there are 17 republicans in the house sitting in districts that voted for joe biden in 2020.

there are only five democrats sitting in districts that voted for donald trump. for president biden. two states where democrats underperformed in the 2022 midterms, new york and california. the question of the split ticket voting dynamic. how many voters will vote strategically to balance their tickets. we saw this dynamic in 2016 and 2020 with the polls heading into election day. those cycles showed democrats with a healthy need and a number of independent voters in swing districts decided that if democrats are going to hold the white house, maybe it is worth investing in a more conventional republican then donald trump down ballot to make sure democrats don't go too far left. republicans had a decent year in 2016 holding the house and picked up a dozen house seats in 2020. the question this year is, are

voters who are uncomfortable with the prospect of donald trump returning to the presidency, are they going to invest in a democrat down ballot as a means of trying to restrain trump from going too far in his direction. host: if i read the brake town from your organization, lesson -- 11 tossup's, what are the races to watch in those states you describe? guest: if you add up all of the races in the cook political report ratings that lean toward the democrats, there are 200 three seats. if you do add up the ones that lead toward republicans, there are 210 seats and then we have tossup's in the middle that could go either way. democrats would need to win two thirds of them for the majority but in 2022, they did and waited

-- did win reporters. we are looking at a very narrow battlefield where 5% of americans are going to be voting in those tossup districts. some of the races we are watching are in new york's 17th a district where a republican freshman, michael lawler come up against a democrat who used to represent a good chunk of the seat. lawler has been trying to carve out the anti-marjorie taylor greene lane of the house public conference. he stood up for kevin mccarthy during the speakership fight and has also tried to secure a lot of funding for local projects that the district has a number of infrastructure needs in the hudson valley. this will be a fascinating race.

we are watching in california a number of races both in the l.a. area and central valley. one of the key races is in the riverside county where republican ken calvert who has held the seat since 1992 is in a race against a democrat who came within six points of it beating him in the midterms. he is raising a lot of money in the palm springs area that has been trending toward it democrat. it is going to be one of the highest dollar fights in the state. host: a new speaker who has to fund raise. how does that factor into dividing the money into defending seats? guest: one of the reasons why democrats are moral or bullish on the house is that republicans have had a mess. it took 15 votes to elect a

speaker and only 3% to overthrow kevin mccarthy. and now mike johnson is not only short on experience but also short on republican. kevin mccarthy resigned. both democrats and republicans teamed up to expel george santos. at the current juncture, republicans can only afford to lose one vote on any piece of legislation. to get to the finish line along party lines. the key question in the coming weeks is will mike johnson be able to keep his job if a ukraine aid package comes to the floor. marjorie taylor greene is obviously holding the vote -- motion to vacate over his head. although it is difficult for democratic strategists to make republican dysfunction in the house a campaign issue in and of itself, what democrats tell me is they hope this chaos gives the extreme message that they

hope to run against republicans in districts and trying to tie it to abortion man's and -- ban and former president trump's rhetoric. host: we are told from people as particularly women in suburban districts when it comes to those issues important to them that may factor into how they vote this coming november, abortion on the top of that list. 39% expecticizing the biden administration on immigration and that he would not only say his own party had fallen short but to blast does that factor in? guest: there is no doubt the president is underwater on immigration and the economy. the nbc news poll that came out showed that by more than 30%

voters felt that donald trump would do a better job than joe biden when it came to securing the border. on the economy, donald trump had a 22 point lead. abortion was the only issue where biden held a double-digit lead at 44-32. democrats are fearful of what this means down ballot. there is a blueprint for democrats to be able to outrun joe biden's approval rating in pulling numbers. it was new york's third district where there was a special election in february where the democrat thomas whatley was able to confront democrats greatest weakness head on in the race against the republican. he decided he was going to show up at events criticizing the biden administration on immigration and that he would not only say his own party had

fallen short but to blast republicans, particularly donald trump, for killing a senate immigration compromise bill. what we have not seen the president do on a daily basis is adopt that same strategy. great sports players know how to turn defense into offense and right now the president and his campaign by trying to make abortion the centerpiece of his reelection campaign are kind of risking glossing over voters concerns about affordability, high interest rates and the situation at the border. there are potential dividends if democrats were to point the finger for killing that as a package to get done right away. host: david wasserman is the guest. if you want to ask him about the

races, you can call (202) 748-8001 for republicans. (202) 748-8000 for democrats. (202) 748-8002 for independents. you can text us at (202) 748-8003. these are the seats to watch, the center tour out of montana, nevada, ohio and arina has an open seat. work through those as far as what to watch for. guest: democrats have no edge but one seat is already gone which is west virginia where jim justice is a strong front runner to replace joe manchin. if republicans win the white house, then they will also win

the senate because a 50-50 senate and the tie is broken by the vice president. democrats not only have to hold the white house but run the table on their own seats and there are a lot of vulnerable democratic seats varied at the top is ohio and montana. sherrod brown and the montana i the only one who can hold the seat. they will run populist mpaigns against wealthy republican businesspeople in ohio. these are going to be very personal negative at races and we will see if they can outrun joe biden because they might need to buy 10 points or more to be able to win reelection. the other two races in the southwest that we have in the tossup column are arizona and nevada. i think democrats did get some good news in arizona.

she announced she will not run and this makes it a two way race. republicans in d.c. are more resigned than excited. we have a better opportunity to win those voters that were present in a three-way contest. in nevada, the senate editor wrote a great ratings article moving the race to a tossup and republicans are bullish on their candidate sam brown who is likely to win the primary to face jacky rosen. nevada is a very trendy state. a lot of the electorate is new.

jacky rosen is not a well-established brand in nevada. the harry reid machine got one across the line but pulling shows -- pulled out -- polling -- casey is and an open seat in michigan where republicans like their front runner candidate mike rogers a lot. there are many possible routes to a senate majority. the main question is, what is the republican margin because if it goes from 51-41, the swing votes go from kyrsten sinema to joe manchin to perhaps susan

collins who are functionally more like independence. if republicans win a majority, then donald trump if elected would have much more leeway to confirm cabinet appointees and pass an agenda. host: this is mike in indiana, independent line. caller: i couldn't vote for a democrat or republican right now. they blame stuff on people and it is not true. the person when they talked about trump and election interference and this trial about him having these documents and biden having them, the one

that is responsible for it is the people that take care of it, the cia, fbi, and they should be a reason when they do something like that, they should be the ones who go to jail. host: to the degree the former president's legal issues deep into the congressional race, what do you think? guest: it is not clear that they will or be front of mine with voters while casting ballots. when we look at the polling surrounding donald trump's problems, it 53% of voters believe trump has committed crimes. but 18% of those voters are planning on looking for donald

trump anyway. i think this election is going to come down to what i would call the add-on electorate, the people who did not show up in 20 or 2020 for primaries but are going to show up this fall. there are 112 million who showed -- 112,000 -- 100 and 12 millions who showed up and more will cast ballots. who are the 40 million to 50 million additional voters. they are younger and more diverse and are more blue-collar and less college educated but they identify as independents or unaffiliated and they are disillusioned with both candidates and the two system as a whole. you have a major flirtation with third-party candidates who are essentially vehicles for protest by these voters against --

between trump and biden. rfk junior in many polls is getting younger voters. although rfk junior appears to be perhaps even with perhaps trump and biden, we notice other third-party candidates pulling more from biden because they are in the anti-protest lane. that could lower trump's threshold for victory as much as 44% to 45%. the question is how did they vote down ballot? they are up for grabs. host: richard joins us from georgia, and democrats line. caller: reference the young folks not voting, i believe the

gen z folks have spoken up like they did with demonstrations throughout the city like they did in san francisco and others. on inflation, the corporate american greed is killing america. i saw a story last year where the ceo of kellogg was on a conference call saying they will intentionally raise prices to keep inflation going. the president listening to the young folks referencing the war in iraq, he has to get a handle on that. as a whole -- poll worker and i know that they are good and safe and secure. the president needs to look at the congressman for the seat in

long island recently because, the democrats need to learn to go on offense and stop playing defense and listen to the gen z folks. guest: the caller touched on the conflict in the middle east and this is one that is preventing joe biden to getting back to the 2020 level of support among young voters. no question he needs to replicate his margin among young and nonwhite voters to have a good chance of being reelected. he won non-white voters 70 percent to 23% and 18 to 29, with a 22 point margin. now the new york poll that came out, joe biden was only leading

nonwhite voters 62% to 30%. he was only leading 18 to 29 by two points, which wouldn't cut it. it would probably preclude his path to winning reelection. i think a lot of it does have to do with the thermometer reading for biden right now among young voters on college campuses and dissatisfaction with his policies toward israel and gaza and also disillusionment with the political system as a whole and the candidates considering their age. host: james is in illinois, independent line. caller: i was just wondering.

i don't understand the blind following of israel that the united states put themselves in the position of and why are we getting involved in this when they clearly attacked iran and everyone knows it. i don't know why the media is putting on the spin that israel should retaliate when they were the aggressors. when are we going to stop blindly following this >> we take you to new york where former president trump finished day two of his trial. mr. trump: this is an exciting time because the bodega association invited me and they respect me and want law and order and they have tremendous crime where their stores are being robbed. as you know, we're going to give new york a very good shot for the presidency. we think we should be able to do it. a lot of things have changed. lee did a wonderful job.

and new york's a lot different. and we'll work with the governor and bring in a lot of federal money. [crowd chanting "four more years"] mr. trump: these are great friends but have incredible crime. >> more than 50% of people, the majority believe -- [inaudible] mr. trump: i heard 78% think it's a rigged deal. it is a rigged deal. it's a rigged trial. our courts. everything is screwed up in new york and the whole world is watching. this judge is so conflicted. you'll understand that. take a look at that. there's never been a judge so conflicted. it's ridiculous. also, there's no crime. you know where the crime is, in the bodegas where they come and rob them every week. reporter: what in your mind is an ideal juror?

mr. trump: anybody that's fair. i'll let you know after the trial. don't forget, we're appealing. if you look and you take a look around, a good strong look, every legal scholar, every legal pundit said there should be no trial. there was nothing done wrong. this is all politics and coming out of the white house. and you know, it makes me campaign locally and that's ok. [crowd chanting "we want trump"] mr. trump: we're doing better now than we've ever done. it's having a reverse effect. all i want is fairness. these people have to be treated better. the bodega association, the bodegas, because every week they're being robbed two or three times. it's crazy. you know what, the police can do it. they can stop it but have to be allowed to do their job.

reporter: what can you do to give them hope to restore the american dream, atlanta, new york, philly, chicago? mr. trump: number one is stop crime. let the police do their job. they have to be given back authority. we'll come into new york. we're making a big play for new york, other cities, too. but this city, i love this city and it's gotten so bad in the last three years, four years and we're going to straighten new york out. so running for president, we think we can win new york with half a million migrants, that took over your park and hotels and take over everything. and you know what they've done, they've destroy sod many people. the african-american community now is not getting jobs, migrants are taking their jobs that are here illegally. hispanics are not getting jobs, migrants are taking the job. if you look the a the

unemployment, the unemployment is good for migrants now. it went up 10% for all migrants. and they're in our country. now, they're coming from prisons, i don't know if you know, they come from mental institutions, they come from prisons, and they come from places you don't want to know about. they're coming from jails and prisons, mental institutions, and insane asylums and you have massive numbers of terrorists coming into our country all because of biden. by the way, this trial i have now, that's a biden trial. they want to keep me off the campaign trail but based on what i'm doing, i think there's more press here than there is in other locations. the police have to be able to do their job. the police in new york are great. they have to be able to do their job. they have to protect these people. look at thisup man and he has a son that looks like he's a movie star, much better looking than the father and the father looks good. you know what, he said he's robbed all the time.

how are you doing? well, we're robbed all the time. beautiful place. he's robbed all the time. it's alvin brags' fault. he does nothing and goes after guys like trump who did nothing wrong. violent criminals, murderers, there are hundreds of murderers all over the city. they know who they are, they don't pick them up. they go after trump. reporter: how do you feel about the seven jurors that were selected today? mr. trump: i'll let you know in two months. reporter: those who don't have papers and are working hard. mr. trump: we have to get the criminals. many coming into our country are criminals and mental patients. we'll have the largest deportation in the history of our country. you know who needs that? new york.

remember, african-american, hispanic american, asian american, they're all losing. unions are losing. reporter: what about iran? reporter: what is he doing here, he doesn't like the communities, the latino communities? mr. trump: i love them and they love me. my numbers are the highest in the history of the republican party with the latinos. and frankly, the immigrants, the illegal immigrants, we have to do something because no country can sustain it. they're emptying out their prisons and emptying out their mental institutions into our country. these are prisoners and people from mental institutions. [crowd champing "trump"]

[crowd chanting "trump"] [crowd chanting "four more years"] mr. trump: i think what's going to happen is we're going to end up doing so well. we're way ahead of the polls against biden.

biden has destroyed our country. look, biden is the worst president in the history of our country, worse than jimmy carter by a long shot. jimmy carter is happy because he's had a brilliant presidency compared to biden. he's destroyed our country between the borders and everything else, he's destroyed our country. not only that, wars are breaking out all over the world. we're going to end up in a world war 3. we have to get rid of biden. we'll make a heavy play for new york. that's why i'm here. we have tremendous hispanic support. the hispanics are supporting me at a level nobody has ever seen before. we'll make a heavy play for new york. also, african-american support, no republican has ever had the african-american support that i have. so we're going to make a heavy play for new york. we'll work with the democrat mayor and work with the democrat governor and get the state fixed up.

reporter: the city that never slept. now they can't stay open at 2:00 a.m. in the morning. mr. trump: we'll get it straightened out. we'll work with the mayor and the governor. i'll work with democrats. we have to straighten out new york. if it goes any further out, it will never come back. reporter: what about -- people say you violated the gag order. mr. trump: no, i didn't. there shouldn't be a gag order. the gag order is totally unconstitutional. the judge should not be there. the judge is highly conflicted. he should not be there. reporter: you're in harlem, a different neighborhood. mr. trump: i think we're connecting already. i was invited here by the bodega association. they're being treated very badly between all the -- they're getting robbed two or three times a week per store.

mr. trump: the migrants have taken over new york. 500,000 illegal migrants in new york. the people of new york are not going to take it. that's why they're going to vote for trump. reporter: what did you think of the jurors? mr. trump: i don't know. it's early. we'll see what happens. the judge is totally conflicted p. he should recuse himself. he's so conflicted. there's never been anybody so conflicted like this. all that stuff is on appeal right now. it's all on appeal. the whole world is watching this new york legal system. this is all -- it's really election interference at the highest level. it all comes down to washington because they're losing very badly. you do know that. they're losing badly in the polls and i think you'll see some numbers coming out now even

higher. people don't like the persecution. they don't like what's going on. they don't like these fake prosecutors, deranged jack smith, the whole group of them. i think we'll see some big changes being made. you know what we're going to be doing, right? we're going to be saving america. our country is under siege. and take a look at israel. israel all of a sudden, it doesn't feel protected. it has biden and he doesn't know where he is. it's a real mess. [inaudible question] mr. trump: thank you.

[crowd chanting "u.s.a."] mr. trump: they come in with guns and shouldn't be allowed to have a gun. that's not good. he's going to be a movie star, you know that. he's going to forget about bodegas. he's a movie star. we'll send him to hollywood. goodbye, everybody. reporter: what's your plan for the rest of your days in new york?

[crowd chanting "thank you"] mr. trump: we'll be all over. on the weekend, we're doing rallies all over the place. we've never had the numbers we have right now. have a good time, everyone.

[captions copyright national cable satellite corp. 2023] ♪ >> c-span has been delivering unfiltered congressional coverage for 45 years. here's a highlight from a key moment. >> racial profiling has to stop, mr. speaker. just because someone wears a hoodie does not make them a hoodlum. the bible teaches us, mr. speaker -- the speaker pro tempore: the member will suspend.

the member will suspend. the chair must remind members -- the house is not in order. >> to walk humbly with your god. and in the new testament, look 4: 18-20 teaches us these words, the spirit of the lord is upon me. because he has anointed me to proclaim the good news to the poor. the speaker pro tempore: the member will suspend. >> c-span, powered by cable. >> celebrating the 20th anniversary of our annual student cam documentary competition, this year c-span asked middle and high school students across the country to look forward while considering the past. participants were given the option to look 20 years in the future or 20 years into the past. and in response we received

inspiring and thought provoking documentaries from over 3200 students across 42 states. our top award of $5,000 for grand prize goes to nate coleman and jonah in connecticut. their compelling documentary, "innocence held hostage, navigating past and future conflicts with iran." >> it's evident in the next 20 years the united states must make more policy that places heavier restriction on all americans traveling to iran because not only will we see less hostage taking but the united states will no longer have to participate in such considerable negotiations with iran. >> congratulations to our winners and be sure to watch the top 21 winning documentaries on c-span every day this month starting at 6:50 a.m. eastern or any time online at studentcam.org. >> do you solemnly swear that in the testimony you're about to give will be the truth, the

whole truth and nothing but the truth so help you god? >> saturday watch american history tv's "congress investigates" as we explore major investigations in our country's history by the u.s. house and senate. each week, authors and historians will tell the story, we'll see footage from the period. the 1950's mccarthy era hearings, among the first televised hearings. the senate committee explored whether communists had infiltrated the state department and army. the investigation resulted in the censure of wisconsin senator joseph mccarthy for his actions. watch on c-span2. >> president biden spoke to voters during a campaign stop in scranton, pennsylvania. in his remarks the president said he'll restore the child tax care credit and provide a tax credit for first-time homeowners.