now the ceasefire would not be permanent and there would still be hostages and gossip. on tuesday in cairo, egypt, a home aust delegation will sit down to consider what the us is calling an extraordinarily generous offer. a possible window of opportunity for both sides. will they take it on board golfing berlin? this is the day the mazda has to be forward a proposal that is extraordinarily, extraordinarily generous on the part of his room. there is appropriate course on certain issues, but students there is fundamental issues that there must be a sort of compromise from both sides. the only thing standing between the people of guys and a cease fire is the most you would find a lot of pressure inserted in both sides not to

reach any kind of compromise. also coming up a plot to overthrow the german government and replace it with an aristocrat wouldn't be modern day in for 9 suspects. charged with treason there, trial began today. the whole affair is really a big burden for our democracy and really, really needs transparency. who is behind this grouping and uh, what went wrong. that they could operate so long without having being seen for to our viewers watching on cbs in the united states and to all of you around the world. welcome. we begin today as diplomats dare to talk seriously about a serious cx. 5 is real and some of us have been it and were practically non stop 7 months now. the only pause was about a week last november tonight and something more substantial appears to be in the works is real, is reportedly offering

a limited ceasefire and exchange for the release of $33.00 is rarely hostages and loss reported lee is demanding the release of hundreds of palestinian prisoners held in is rarely present. we'll have boss and israel where they find common ground . really know, be a green light for is really troops to launch their round defensive against rough up . this is what is real is closest allies said on monday. how much has before the proposal that is extraordinarily, extraordinarily generous on the part of israel. and in this moment, the only thing standing between the people of gaza and a cease fire is the most. they have to decide and they have to decide quickly. so we're, we're looking to that and i'm hopeful that they will make the right decision. and we can have a fundamental change in the, in the dynamic. it does seem to me that is the, you know, let's be frank of

a generous offer of, of you know, sustained 40 days he spied the release of potentially thousands of palestinian prisoners in return for the release of these hostages has not been in captivity for over 200. all right, i'm gonna pull in now hans, you all should learn. he's an international diplomacy analyst and the senior director at the counter extreme is in project. he joins us tonight from new york is surely it's good to see you. so diplomats, they have been open, especially in the last 24 hours about their optimism about this possible ceasefire deal. what does this tell you as well, i mean the, i close undoubtedly, but i like to add it more to. fortunately, it's been closed before it has frequently really been a problem about the leadership in guys all the time as well. it's not reading the willing to accept the conditions of a deal. that's the how much the the ship is outside of that. and it's like sampling stuff. i was willing to accept result while there is pressure enough just from

secondary blinking, but also 13 nations collectively called on us to take the deal out. and i have to release the hostages. it's only over, i mean, it's old. and that is the international community pressure ring come off, which what you just mentioned. what about the pressure on is real to make this ceasefire deal a reality? while these right the government to be frank has been open to megan sci fi a deal um for a while now that's been a sub shift from i only wanted to accept short term as these fires and limited number of people and also only to be released only listings with minor crimes. now that has shifted to a loan god willing to step along because these via but also to release palestinians that have most serious crimes against me. and what, what does the is really want to have from us to look. i mean, it's very clear that the gentleman came up uh, is raised operations in dogs. i the,

the destruction of my master has an ongoing trade is concerned, is still and remains still the main one of the main tags. the other ones, of course being the hostages, and this is where the appropriate mix is. the hostages are the same time for our mass, their life insurance. so i doubt that how much is willing to release on of the hostages . equally, i doubt that even if this deal is made, that he's riley, is going to commit to an ending ceasefire. they're still rough up and i still for battalions of i'm us in rough are as well as the key, there's need is save days and sing, why and rough. ok. they cannot leave list a need for the file. know, otherwise i must, when we come to june, day 5 after the it's a how do usually this, if i'm off, does not take this deal, will that be a green light then for and is really ground operation into rasa. let me formulate like this. if this randy government can't get the hostages back with this

data very shortly, they've been preparing for the rightful offensive planning, talking to the american, a government about their plans, how to protect civilians in jobs that during the offensive. if they can get those to just back, these ready to government has no choice. they will have to do this offensive and try to read also just by polls rather than through negotiation. all right, that's another topic that's on the radar, particularly in, in israel is really media are reporting that the international criminal court might soon issue arrest warrants for senior is really government and military officials. i mean, do you see this timing as a coincidence or, or is there something more here? well, i mean, 1st of all, the brand is uh, potentially to uh, issue. the best ones not only for is really is the name of the tire patients. but also for how much. so if it happens, hopefully, well be a binds biased approach, looking at what happens next. one is not necessarily yet a conviction of guilt. mind you. so i don't see

a particular connection between what the i c i c p to us and what the negotiates doable in, in cairo and into okay, how's that give similar as always we appreciate your time and your analysis. thank you. here at germany, 9 people suspected applauding to overthrow the national government went on trial. today they things, charges of terrorism and hide trees. and prosecutors say the ring leader was a businessman in german, the aristocrat called heinrich prince royce. they say the plan was to make royce a modern day german, him for this was the moment prince hind wish, wise's fairytale came crashing down. his alleged plan was simple, storm parliament and overthrow the german government. but all stories pounds before the plot could unfold. more than 3000 officers were involved in the december 2022

raids. it was one of the biggest anti extremist raids in german history. at its heart, kindly close a business man and self sailed german aristocrats. he's accused of leading the plot at his hunting lodge. he and dozens of others are alleged to have hatched a plan to violently over throw the government. the group is linked to the right wing extremist, a vice via the movement or citizens of the rise. police say they conspired to establish a new german state based on the old empire from the late 19th century, with prince hinds. h, as in, per among its members, former police officers soldiers, and the former politician for the far right a if the party prosecutors and legs, the network had access to a huge arsenal of weapons. the whole affair is really a big burden for our democracy and really,

really needs transparency. who is behind this grouping? what went wrong, that they could operate so long without having been seen. now prince hind wish and his fellow suspected conspirators are set to stand. trial charge was planning an act of treason and membership of a terrorist organization. the voters across europe will elect a new european parliament in june and the polls and predictions. shelby shift in the balance of power far right parties could emerge as the strongest political force in several european union countries, including france and the netherlands, and their predicted to come in 2nd, in many countries, such as germany of turnout among young voters is expected to be higher than in the last election 5 years ago, and that's a demographic. all political parties want to win over tonight. the leaders of 8 major european political parties, including european commission,

president or slip on the lion. faced off in a debate in the dutch city of boston, the audience, hundreds of university students and the w. terry schultz, she had a front row seat to tonight's debate. she joins me now from last week in the netherlands. very good to see you. so this was an event for the university students . and right now is i under stay that you were supposed to be an after party, but instead you're standing. well, i'm looking there was an empty square. what happened of the that's right, brand after this major kick off event. with ursula bundle ion and 7 other political leaders. there were supposed to be a big festive party where students could discuss what they had heard. and the word d. j is plan that were bar set up, but as it perhaps is appropriate, the real world intruded on these plans and a group of pro palestinian students. held a protest across the street from the,

from the venue. and police decided to kick them out and shut the whole thing down hours early. so now instead of a bunch of partying students, you can see workers taking down the pro european union posters hours early. so yeah, this is not exactly the way that things were expected to end. but you know, we're the only ones here now actually worrying about getting kicked out ourselves while we still have to worry about finding any with the dance. let's go back inside after listening to the 8 candidates debate, you know what there was for debate? i mean, was there a clear winner of the? well, there was one way to measure that. and that is because the organizers which were maastricht university and politico asked students on their way in and there were some 900 students watching lives. so this was really a big event, ask them who they would choose for european commission president whether or is

a live underlying should be replaced. and by the end, the leader of the greens plus i choose who is a dutchman. he would, he one i as to who the people here in this audience would have selected. but i came . 7 and spoke to the students before they got kicked out of this square and asked them how they felt. and basically what i heard was that nobody was really happy with what they heard the candidate say they didn't feel like they had geared their answers toward the youth. let's have a listen. i guess i felt, but um, a lot of the debate was more about what others were not doing. i talked to one another rather than focusing on what each candidate wanted to do for, you know, continuing this european dream. so it's, it's, it's interesting to say the least. so i'm a member of the green party myself. however, i thought that our green candidate, well, he was a bit disappointing tonight. i mean, he did send out the green deal really well i've, i didn't, i didn't think that he brought his point across in the way that he could have done

or that maybe other people could have done. i think he could have squeezed us up on the line a little bit more on what you promised and didn't deliver. i would have wanted them to be more brave into taking up on some issues that are important. i thing for europe in general, they didn't take any risk of that. no. and that's a shame of the so students would really like to see some dramatic positions. i think more fighting, more arguments and basically kind of days delivered the same kind of talking points . we would hear in brussels, and so really we didn't hear anybody coming out really cheering their candidates either turn, this reminds us of who we per time time again about this democracy deficit in europe. people tell pollsters that they connect much more to national elections. national politicians, it's a never ending story. how to convince voters that what happens in brussels? instruct burge matters just as much as what happens in berlin, paris, or rome?

i guess, no success tonight. and that's true. i mean, admittedly, these were 8 leaders of, of groupings that are pan european and, and so you know, you could be expecting that they wouldn't speak so. so clearly to national interest and boss equity to again came in 1st among the voters for european commission president, he admitted that he may have had somewhat of a hometown advantage being from the netherlands. but a lot of these students would have liked to hear them speak more to youth and they really didn't feel that. and this was one of the things the democratic deficit wasn't tacked one of the 3 themes, the candidates were supposed to address. one was environment 2 was defense and security and 3 was the state of e u. democracy. but again, if you listen to the 2 of the students coming out after the debate, none of them really felt inspired. of course, what happened here in this square losing their after party may have had something to do with that. it certainly didn't help. yeah,

and the irony here is that the events that happened outside and with everything being shut down that will actually get more media attention than the actual debate itself. right? this is true and this is what a lot of students were saying like this is supposed to be an event about european union democracy. why can't we talk about god, that the war between israel and god, that was not a major event in the debate. and some students really felt strongly about that. many of them were very disappointed to see the police very forcefully, actually tearing the palestinian flags out of the protesters, hands and kicking them out with dogs and you know, picking out the journalist as well. so this was not a good scene. this was not the way you want a pro democracy event, the end of course. all right, but we're glad that you were not injured in all of that w series schultz in moscow just for that. i'm like, i didn't get kicked out. okay. you're right there. thank you. thank you.

what i think is a real issue is when, when we're start seem to see differences between the number of birds that people say they want and the number that they end up having. and so, i mean, if people want to have kids like then and they're unable to because of things like economic prosperity and costs and child care that's, that's not good, right? that's a bad sign for society as americans are having fewer babies. in fact, the birth rate dropped in 2023 to its lowest level in a century. the only ribbon saw an increase where women 40 and older. it is a trend that began around the time when i was born since the 19 seventy's. despite the little book we sold during the pandemic, it has been just one direction downwards. as a result, the united states is aging like never before a gray superpower. or is this a contradiction in terms? are these demographics, dangerous for us, power at home and abroad? it is just one of the problem added realities highlighted as

a new study prepared for the pentagon to be released tomorrow. the rand study focuses on the relative decline in us standing one that it says is accelerating. it lists many reasons, including addiction, to luxury and decadence. a loss of civic virtue, military overreach, as well as self center, deletes and environmental abuse. after more than 2 centuries, after the pax americana of the 20th century is the decline of american power inevitable, almost pre programmed. and my next guest has been thinking about the rise and fall of great powers. he is the lead author of a new study published in the proceedings of the national academic of sciences that suggest countries of white. they are population's age and the older they get the greater improbability of their demise. i'm happy to welcome to the program martin schaefer. he is with the department of environmental sciences at foggins. net. can

you go to university in the netherlands, mr. shafer? it's good to have you with us, your investigation, it called because it caught my attention for, for several reasons. i mean, you look at the mortality of states. first things 1st, what do you treat as a state? i mean, how far back in history did you go back and were there shared characteristics of, of all of these states? a while? states are very diverse. we have looked at hundreds of states, the earliest ones, 2002 years before christ. and the most recent ones, and starting before the year, 1800. so we have an option to set the modern states. but we have looked at a very large collection and, and around large differences through our small alarms, big ones, and saw me and are terminated very, very quickly, older as we're able to pull through for a millennium more or more. so it's

a very di, 1st collection signal, no, as it helped to say c, c, the veterans that the older states get, the more likely it is that the dent combs for a state just as it goes for humans. so we, we could show that there is a den seahorse stage to become fragile. and just like, just like human beings and i understand it correctly. the states have about the same life span, most of them the same amount of time before they enter decline. and i think it's what about 200 years right to well yeah, but the there is a difference and to, to human. so for humans, the probability that you're done any given year it, it goes increasingly rapidly. i should become walter. that's why i'm no longer has become really, really very old. and for states it's little black that it's over the 1st 200 years

. they've become increasingly available. busy more and that they stay and. busy less equally vulnerable search, so it's not as deterministic as the case with humans. some states are actually able to survive much longer than over. so that's a difference. but they do h and get to become more for their goal. and if we bring that then to our presence in the post mode, where to order that has been directed by the united states, the superpower, us, it's about 2 markets, $250.00 a birthday in just 2 years, 250 years old. would you say that it is now in a period of spaces, or is the us now living on borrowed time as well that's, that's the, of course we cannot conclude from the, from the, our observations in pre modern states. but then one thing

you can say, you start to united states are not alone, right? to the united states. their constitution was rich and i think around the same time as the french constitutional french revolution. so there was and do you like to stays for very important, but there was a whole tendency around the world of different alignment away from the feudalism to and a meritocracy, to the industrial capital. there's some debt. no, no. and, and the united states are a very prominent play range a bit, but again, they're not alone. and this is a very different world in the sense that in the, like a 1000 to years ago or so, and a stage good, full and, and that was it very usually it wouldn't have major repercussions. and of where the one exception 11 important period when there was a cascading collapse of

a lot of the state to disrupt the so called and beta gross age collapse. and now of course we have are very connected to the world. so you get it. it's a very different situation and all the other hand, i think the tensions that, that you see rising are comparable to dose in the past, which you mention like a stress environment, deterioration of the environmental conditions. you're perhaps increasing inequality . if you try to diagnose i, i would assume diagnosing a superpower in the 21st century. of course is different from diagnosing the condition of a declining power. 500 years ago. mean we're talking about new threats, nuclear war. i'm artificial intelligence. this information, these new threats, these new elements, would you say the hurt or help americans chances of saving

itself in your opinion? that's a very hard question for me to answer. course there is terrorist, the idea that the nuclear threat has helped to present wars off through the 2nd world war and with the risk of course that when things go wrong too much cope variable. and i think what is definitely true is that we are all more connected to the world's done before. and that is true for the united states. it's true for the netherlands where i, where i live, to dress one, a period in time when the, when there was such a collection in the country as a reference to the mediterranean sea. and that there's a period in which famously there was a cascading collapse of one state officer

d all there. that wasn't just officers periods so so, so an archaeologist has, have suggested that we are in a similar situation. i need to raise the risk for that guess caden failures to just say once we have doesn't happen and you know is the shape of before we run out of time. one reason that we learn history is in the hopes that we do not have to repeat it. so let me ask you, should your paper do you think, should it be required? reading for every lawmaker in the united states, maybe lawmakers everywhere. i think it's a good idea because it shows that there is this tendency to become fragile, but it also shows that it is not and ever so some states were able to do something about it good so far from the drive very long. so i think it's a good idea to read the paper. yeah, i'm a, it's a, it's a great read and let's hope that the, the story we're in right now has a happy ending. martin schafer,

we appreciate your taking your time to talk with us. it is and you thank you. thank you to well, the day is almost done, the conversation continues online. you'll find this on youtube x and facebook. either dw, nearest you can fall, would be at risk golf tv. and remember whatever happens between now and then tomorrow is another day we'll see you then everybody, the

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