this is being discussed across the continent. these are we in use africa every friday on the w. sometimes it's hard to find what you're looking for. but we've got something for you. experts have been expecting a fresh russian offensive for a while now, but certainly not expecting to be shake up in russia's military leadership that we solve this week. sometimes defense minister for the last 12 years and the survey showing goes in and out of the job and has been replaced by a civilian economist. what does that tell us about pretends strategy and what really means for ukraine and are home bargains and losing ground in the region at north east of harkey? is we going through? the point of we're looking at is for economy and discussing whether new military leadership will mobilize russia for a long and flights. the

hello and welcome. i'm glad richardson in berlin, and i'm thrilled to introduce our panel this week. we have a vladimir, yes above offer, and a journalist with d. w. nico, with long, a senior fellow at the munich security conference. and joining us today from your neck, marina maroney, military analyst with kings college london. or and welcome to you all are in after months of essentially stalemate. we're starting to see some movements again in the war and ukraine. russia making games in the north east. is this the new offensive that many analysts were expecting to take place this spring or summer as well? i will be very careful as to describe it as the actual offensive. i believe this is

just a prelude to the offensive because what we're seeing now, obviously a new front has been opened in the north in har keith. there are some talks about the potential of su me enter need. he's also being attacked by russian forces. however, we see activity along the entire line of contact. so from my perspective, this is just a way that's why she's trying to gain a better position, a more favorable position for itself in order to street. i'm afraid we just can't hear the last bit of what you're saying. so i would turn over to nico, just to pick this up. we have the united states top diplomat, anthony blinking in care of this week. and we know that one senior us official, basically acknowledge that this trip was to reassure the ukrainians. he said this was quote, a very difficult situation. can you read between the lines for us here? what is united states thinking about the situation?

or 1st of all, i would have preferred the secretary blinking to go to hockey if instead of playing guitar in the club. and the situation is difficult also because the us took 6 months of a domestic discussions. most of them unrelated to your train at all to delay the necessary military assistance to your clients. so there's some responsibility of to us and a difficult situation. the ukrainians know themselves that the situation is difficult . the question is what this done to help them, especially with ad defense, which seems to be the biggest problem for the equations and they are, i believe we have still not doing enough. and we will certainly come to that later in the show. but 1st, vladimir, you know, within russia we're also seeing big changes as well, boots and has been swapping people out of the top jobs in this re shuffle of the government. and i'm curious why we're seeing this now, even though it seems like things aren't going so badly for russia, whether it was expected for, for him to change something to make some changes in the government positions as

oversight with the presidential election. so it was expected that they might be some movements um, but besides the facts to who it leads to defense ministers cycle, the lowest of all someone else as long as it wasn't important, it stays in power. so there are so she is the only one who decides what's going on on the general, on the general was the front. so what comes and it's talking about the in terms of me that there's start to start to strengthen training the ukraine. but it did, did i some of stay, some power sensitive chief over the russian unit. i'll stop. so she decides what's going on on the, on the mental health and the ukraine and the below. so for, so this is being described as pragmatic goal of professional economist indeed, but as i mentioned all on already, 14 is the only one who, who is there any to decide in the virginia will direction of the russian politics. okay, so we have put in, you know, in a way keeping us guessing, with what has been the most significant change as to his military commander, since russia's full scale invasion of ukraine. and as we've hinted,

even one of pollutants closest allies was not spared, industry shuffle. side by side and good friends, that's how i'll show you who entreated and presented their relationship for years. 68 year old show who has ever seen the ministry of defense since 2012. his time in office. so the annexation of crimea adams, the invasion of ukraine, but she did not deliver what boots and had hoped for a quick capture of keys. now he is being replaced by the civilian and right below self boots in hopes that the form administered of economic development will provide a boost to the alms industry in particular and use that. so you, course military technology is changing very quickly, which if we want to be successful, we must always be one step ahead to those. and we can see they've done their substituting. and to show who his new position is, secretary of the national security council. replacing nikolai pa to chef, also

a long time alley of fruits. and what is patients? a human restructuring? the military leadership academy. i'd like to talk a little bit more about troy. go out of that job at. do you think these are ghosts here of of you have danny for goes and the, and the wagner groups you for those who, who don't remember, he went after show you go hard. a year ago there was a viral video in which he was a strongly criticized. no gosh. so if you've been, if you goes and you've been able to go into the history so it's, it's gone. so it's not, not, not public any anymore. and the replacement of a cycle might have they have technical reasons for us. and by the big question is what, what's important once to achieve or with the bill of. and the question is, it for us is going for a long cold war for the long war? isn't mention, can ukraine stand for a long core as isabel? is that our 2nd and is the most important questions for the rest of the public?

because if the rest and rest and society system congress wants to support, you can no longer war begins trust. so you kind of need more supports than now. so let's pick a little bit about his replacement then moreno. why do you think we're seeing futon appointing a, a civilian, an economist, as his defense minister? well, i think that andre below sophie has done him very good job in his previous position . and it's certainly somebody who is more scientific and who is also oriented towards more speed control of the military industry. and if we're looking at the russia and see how it has behaved during the sanctions, how it impacts his russian economy, we can see that the sanctions didn't achieve the desired effect meetings at whatever below. so who was doing? he was doing the right thing. and so for pollutants perspective, what he needs right now is somebody in the ministry of defense. he has somebody for

the military as has already been said. rosmer remains in his position, but he needs somebody who understands economics and who is able to take care of the military. industrial complex, especially as a defense spending increases and to integrated into the overall russian economy and ensure that it functions efficiently. also perhaps removing those layers of corruption or assembly years of corruption which were standing in the way of the proper and civil military cooperation and military innovation. because when you think of this, ken bellows of clean up rushes, military complex and make it more efficient to think of the 1st of all, i believe cycle is also a civilian. i think he's coming from the emergency services, but he was never an expert in military matters. and so i go and goes, i'll see him off. i mean, they have messed up this aggression against your credit and no military goals have been achieved even after 2 years. so from the effect that the same of is staying

there, i would draw the conclusion that loyalty is still more important than competence and put in has made this movement. no, but i would not start with the hypothesis that this would work. i mean, shall i go ahead and many deficits, but he is a very important part of the system put in for many years. and he was able to quickly trone and lot of resources around, especially when the initial phase of the invasion got botched. and russia had to go to other plans. um, so let's see if this really works and the russian war economy and to approach to this. i mean, we are hearing a lot about this and it seems to me part of it, at least as information warfare. what i see is all tanks getting out of storage being refurbished, being thrown to the battlefield and destroyed very quickly. so i think from a risk and point of view of we should not be afraid of russia waging, waging a little more. we have enough resources. if we want to,

i've told you is russia and to do if you train everything it's need, it needs and also the, the efforts northwest of hawk. if a seems to me more like a supporting effort to, to information campaign. and they are competing in target that it's the getting the population in hockey if and maybe so you mentioned you have to leave to cities. but it's not something that i would, i would suspect, serious military results from the russian side. but just to, just to make things clear, if i understand you correctly, you think this does indeed signal that brewton is digging in for a long war of attrition. and the fact that he's, he's an economist, does this not signal the fact that futon is trying to find someone who can really put the economy at the service of the defense industry to putting this digging in for a long war. i think that is clear since april may 2022, when the initial plan did not work out. but there's nothing to be afraid of from

our point of, you know, military goes by the, on the roof off. the russian side has been the chief so far and i think we can make sure that also the new military goals will not be achieved. um, what i think is changing is that russia is more successful now in the information campaign. and this trying to create a picture that it's hopeless to defend against restaurant that to us and we were in the divorce academy is running. and it seems that is impressing many people, including here in germany and invest in general. bottom here is that also your opinion? do you think we should be afraid of eligible suff and what he can do with the rest of the economy? yeah, that's useful. don't be afraid of the loss of not at all. and your son should be afraid of being not clear about your goals, because it's contradiction i signal so good and from and from europe. on the one side, there's a lot of talks about delivering dollars, total ukraine and delivering more refunds, and is it to face their energy? there is no dollars the dividend through the ukraine. no more. they funds and

ukraine facing their huge laker from empower as well. so it's not only about people in the system, so in the restroom, but the lack of, of men power in the inside the ukraine, which is a problem. but what can, what night nato consult for the. okay? so it's a contradictory positions, contradiction the signal from going going from the rest on the one site, your support and you ukraine on the other side. not really. and this is what, what's so the 1st so the face, bye bye, bye bye. the rest of the site, just okay, let's take a closer look at the situation in the northeast of ukraine. clearly, it is in a dangerous position here with russian forces pushing across it's north eastern border and taking over the past week controls more land every day than they have since the start of the war in the region. no says car keys is under constant fire soldiers, i'll guessing the remaining people out of the homes, one officer the or come on. let's go only take your document what

the they can only take the battery essentials, not knowing if and when they'll be able to return in eastern ukraine, lawyers vox chunks directly on the front line. it's not far from coal, keith, which is home to millions of the ones. 19000 inhabitants, and the 500 remain. you line down and one to will they kill me now? oh, and then i want to sure for those 500, it could now be the last charms to flee from the russian troops. the homeland has become the focal point of the current fighting. we drove through the city center. i can't see it without crying. everything is trembling when the russian army is testing the ukrainian resistance at several points of the front

and the we can soldiers with stand the russian attacks. so we have thousands of ukrainians evacuating from the harkey of region. niko, many of them are reporting that this 2nd russian invasion is for them, even worse, in the 1st one at the start of the war. can tell us a little bit more about what you think we're seeing unfold here. russia has been telegraphing this for a long time, the era text, and then you intensity on hawk, if and also pop the on to me and showing you've stopped at some weeks ago. so this was clear that this what would come and it's the right move by the ukrainians to evacuate. something village is to have a defense position somewhere deeper into the country and to defend there. but of course this will leads and to let it fall. the last day is for russia been seen as taken territory, but it took most up to, to re territory because you create a vector 8 at the villages. now that the real defend started on your great insight

into creating or support and reserves and use more 45 positions. russia for the last 2 days is having more difficulties, the suffering, very heavy losses. and i think russian has to decide now whether to put it in, in reserves to continue this would continue with its plans to do a similar efforts in the so me region. but let's be clear here. this is the supporting effort to what is going on in general and the russian to text me of trust. if y'all and other places in the east, they continue at the same time why this is going on and stretching the ukrainian defense has been spreading. the ukraine and resources that is in effect, i think that russia is achieving marina, is that also what you think is going on here? put this into perspective for us as how do you think russian troops were able to advance so far and, and so quickly in the northeast and under to i'm afraid we've got technical issues here again. so watermark, if you could,

i'd ask you to jump in for that question too. what do you think happened? what went wrong here in ukraine's defenses? and looked at it as something went wrong because you're creating this on the, on the limits because you're getting put the huge resources to the defense lions and the front line was almost more than 1000 kilometer long. so now we have a new piece of this is fighting against is and you conventions already. so uh, ukraine face, as i mentioned already, there, michael likes to open demand power in the more weight points from the front of the risk, more resources and more wind power moment. but as a, as in more, more troops on, on, on this, on this. and this is just another one problem for, for the okay, no government. so it is an empty council for this trip to europe. yesterday, she was supposed to go to spain and portugal to canceled it on short notice because of this complicated situation on the front. so even if it's on the adjuster actually informational law for, for it, what's most facing hard because it's being treated very seriously by anybody

presidency, lensky. and indeed, we even heard a ukrainian commander criticizing this as quoted at the terrible border defense as marina. let's see if we can bring you back in here. what's your view, why ukrainian defense is warranted, better prepared. hey, there are many reasons for that. and we have seen that ukraine also has a problem of corruption as was a former defense minister resnick, of um. so i'm not sure what exactly happened, but apparently the defense is that were supposed to be constructed haven't been constructed in, in, in the way expected. and so the logical thing that has been done by ukrainian troops is pulled back and let the russians enter. this is why we have seen this rapid in line, in spite of russian forces not withstanding, of course, it has drawn the attention of the ukrainian command and the necessity to decide where to send the reinforcements. do we stay in chests of yard or do we send them to harkey? and i think that was a plan, old gas,

or to divert the attention from more important directions. because if we look at the map, what the russians are trying to do is that they're trying to cut off ukrainian trips and cuts through the grouping if they can get up to colorado, we'll still need of it. so i think that the idea here is to develop the breakthrough that they had in no true retina in west, off of the you've got in order to get done for us or west. and the point that i'm talking about specifically i saw it on skin from a tourist and hard to you've for now i think is more of a distraction because they just don't have the manpower and they're not going to commit resources to take both chance front of it do a frontal assault and group of chance crap or a frontal assault on hard teeth. okay, so ultimately meant to spread that ukraine's forces. then you go, we've mentioned blinking was on that unannounced visit to cube this week. there he said, us weapons will make a real difference. where are these weapons?

do you think? do you think so too? there are some of them are there and if they are they are, they make a real difference. and we can see that the new version of the tech m. s. a, the ground based precision fire makes a difference on try me. uh, that's the only a region where ukraine can still put some pressure on the russians and a dusted and very significant. i think a text that's being conducted there. so yes, u. s. weapons make a difference? still, blinking did not answer the question on. what is the strategy of the u. s. w a. d u . s. one to ukraine, helped to help ukraine to push russia or is it just this kind of slowed the recipe that divide? how's was perceiving as a set of g and i thing on the one hand divide, how strategy of denying restaurant achieving it's for him as has been a success. on the other hand, many in ukraine have to feeling the dripping off as a part is a recipe for a slow drip death for a few great. and i think it's up to the white house to make

a different strategic choice. we hear that now in your package is formed immediately after this one. so maybe there is some speeding up. and jake set of upside even alluded to higher speed of deliveries. but there's always a big difference between delivery is being announced and having a communicative effect. and delivery is really arriving to the troops in ukraine. yeah, these things take time, don't they avoid them? or do you think brushes taking advantage of this window where you're kind of still waiting for deliveries of. so look late because this is deliberate, a delay of many months or so huge the drastic obviously will take advantage of this of this situation. absolutely, yes. yeah. there you go. and you are chief of staff to a german defense minister from the conservative party. and until 2022. and you've recently suggested that allies could protect the sky over ukraine from nato countries like romania like poland. can you tell us a little bit how that would work in your view?

but we have for the defense systems at the eastern boulder of nature, which is also be simple enough to european union. and i think we should use them to shut down any russian drones and missiles that are in range that will at least cover $70.00 to $90.00. given me just into aerospace, into western part of your train, it would free up ukraine and they have different assets that could be brought to hockey. if tiffany pro does that part easier, where they are, desperately need it. and so under, i'll take a $51.00 off to you in toronto, it's perfectly legit and eager to do it. and we have seen that this kind of escal atory assumption that many hat in the west. it's just empirically not through. i mean, if the most qual has been sunk, if the next, if lead headquarters, it has been attacked by christmas side. so what are we afraid of? we should just do it. i mean, this is exactly the argument that some from the center left of me, but it would be at school, a tori, a marina, though, i would like to get your view here because as we've said, it appears like there is some support for this idea. both within the german

government and the opposition. what chances do you think a plan like that would actually have of becoming reality? so there are many different scenarios to this. the 1st scenario is, of course we're looking at, from our perspective as nicholas had that would be legitimate under their article, $51.00 of the you on charge are, but does russia actually care how we prefer for perceive it? and whether it's legitimate from the russian point of view, those air defense systems in romania will become a legitimate military target for the russians. so the question here is, or what happened is the russians actually start destroying those air defense systems on romanian territory. how will need to act? will article 5 of collective self defense be involved in such a scenario? and i think those are important questions. 2 things for you. also, another point is just because we haven't seen any escalation and i know that put in

have threatened many times. um, it doesn't mean that he's not willing to use at least tactical nuclear weapons. and i think that is a signal here has been clear. so what would happen if he wants to use tactical nuclear weapons, even to russia's detriment, would then nate or react in kind. if we look at, at nato having nuclear weapons, friends has its own nuclear weapons. some are stationed in germany. those are us. what would happen in such a scenario? how would need to act? and the more a strategic question is, is it going to essentially help ukraine? because that's the only one part of the equation. protecting that era space because you cannot protect all of ukrainian territory. was those air defense systems. and of course, and technical terms. you can wait area defenses or russian missiles could potentially read your defensive, such as air cruise missiles, or we're seeing that difficulties with

a new fab's which are outfitted was an electromagnetic worker kit to, to make them much more difficult to enter south and to detect. so the question is, is it going to make a huge difference? all right, let's pick it up. there was a fly them here and get some, some final thoughts. your, if you want. marina has just said, look the worst parts in fighting of this forest. that's nothing to invest of a video, create the worst parts of it in the east, on the front line. and these are different systems on your mean, you know, folding on or the night they're comfortable, non type in any way to protect the kids because it's not, it's the file from there in the product, any, any thinking in the eastern part of it. okay. so it's a highly symbolical sense. it's highly provocative. staples 0. i'm agree with somebody in the strategical consequence of this with the question the for us, i will ship this broken air defense system and in the countries how nothing would go to react to this. i think it's stating that states even higher,

but i think it's a clearance. they do the direct escalation between or us and many other countries. but it's very, it's very provocative. in terms of medial effect, it's just less thoughts. mika will give you a chance to respond to there, and also i'd love if you could tell us what lessons you think the west should take away when it's looking at these indicators we've discussed of put in the strategy going forward. i think we have to think along new ways and if we are continuing to be afraid of what is going on and put into mind, i'm afraid then we are not able to print against them. well, thank you very much for that. i'm very pleased to have this panel of guests with their insights today, binary pulse read them are on an eco long. i thank you so much for your insights and thank you at home for watching. if you're watching on youtube, but let us know what your thoughts in the comments and hope to see you next time the,

[000:00:00;00]

the, into the conflicts own with sim sebastian. as the war and ukraine grind on the neighboring voltage states what's anxiously from the ring side seat, pressing the west to increase a think kia, and make sure russia dozens with my guess this week is last is 5 minutes to pc on his current. and he's clear nature up in conflict.

incense he meant is on the w to the point. strong opinions, clear positions, international perspective. every showing of russian military leadership suggest pollutant is in digging in for a long and planning to harness for the russian economy. to do so. what does this mean for ukraine under on board mentioned losing ground in the northeast, joined us this week on to the point to the point in 19 minutes on dw, the, the stage burst into our is whenever they feel like a door limits, 1000 kind of for design and fashion and most of the pieces in the sky is many on including the how do they do it?

the secret lives of size starts may 22nd on d, w, conflicts, crises. every single connection mapped out shows the geophysical reality. the on the board is what makes things the way they are mapped out. navigating a changing world. now on youtube, the it could be green, green, old as blue. p s. twine twine. lovely. red. definitely. pull. just a yellow if that's what you present on purple apples, very special that's in the georgia. choose your favorite color,

the this is dw news, life member live. russia steps up, it's offensive in the northeastern ukraine series. what the situation and both chance is turning into at the very moment here is the red potential buildings was struck by a glide bump. just about 20 minutes ago. our corresponding witnesses, the devastation, russian forces on lease. and how you premium soldiers do what they can to bring residents. they also coming out to south africa presses it's genocide case against