represents united by football, stronger together. well, we continue to talk about the war in the middle east and more. with us is serhiy danilov, deputy director of the center for middle eastern studies. mr. serhiy, i congratulate you. good day. what is your opinion? they write, give from a day to two. cbs says, a few hours and... for sure iran will attack israel, dozens of missiles, hundreds of drones. what are your predictions? well, most likely, something, something will happen, but what will it be? well, there will be some kind of symbolic blow, so as not to cause a regional war. that is, dozens of missiles, or hundreds drones, i don't believe. in tegerany , they are looking for a way to save face, to show everyone oh-oh-oh, how terrible we are, on the one hand.

on the other hand, to minimize the consequences, and that it could be some kind of strike, and it is not excluded that it is not from the territory of iran, but by the hands of these groups from iraq, who are quick to do everything, because in syria, too, assad does not really want that from his territory this blow was inflicted on the territories annexed by israel. and they will appeal that this strike was not on the territory of israel, actually, but on the dutch heights, that it was annexed the territory, or along the western coast, in the part that is annexed, that it is not a territory recognized by the world, well, or in the gas sector, yes, and well, there are many signals, iran is very strong now. international pressure, both from

the united states and its arab neighbors, who are persuading him not to inflict it, not to turn the middle east into the arena of a major war. see, on thursday , the united states embassy in israel announced that united states government employees and family members will be barred from any personal travel abroad central israel, jerusalem and bersheva until further notice. there was also information about restrictions on certain flights, and this reminds us of what we saw on the eve of the russian federation's major invasion of ukraine, but here you are saying that you doubt that this could be any major conflict, as you you are wondering, if we are talking about levers, yes, about the possibilities of de-escalation, then who can actually play a key role in this process and - should we 100% reject a big war

in the middle east, or are there still risks that it can flare up there, exist? yes, of course, there is such a possibility, it’s just that it’s small, there are much more chances that it will go according to the scenario, well, such a minimization of losses to save face and that’s the end of it, and look, even the ambassador of iran to the un, in fact... offered some kind of conciliatory formula, but the problem is that inside iran the pressure on the government is increasing, they are laughing, on the one hand, the liberal forces opposed to the ayatollah's regime are ridiculing him, and on the other hand, the reactionary part is connected with the guards corps the islamic revolution is raging, yes, they see that this is a chance, so yes ...

there is still a possibility, i will not push to estimate in percentages, but i do not give more than 25, for example, well, this is a very, very rough estimate, who something can affect something, well, you see, israel said that if the people and the infrastructure are not harmed, relatively speaking, if the iranians warn what, when and where they will shoot in order for israel to shoot it down, iran will declare that it has accomplished its mission. dances dances with tambourines about our great revenge, even if it is with the territory of iran itself, israel said that it will not respond, uh, on the other hand, if damage is caused, if people die, or if there is damage to buildings or infrastructure, the israelis threaten to strike iran, well, all sides leave such half-steps on. .. back done,

who can help? well, the qataris, as always, who are the main negotiators who are now knocking on all the doors in iran, amman, qatar and... iraq, the iraqi government - these are the countries that maintain constant communication with and through the government and the corps in iran everyone is going signals, although i am sure that now there is a direct telephone line between the white house, well, between the americans and the iranians, but from zsan, this yellow board, british, says that the israelis can, that they are preparing, they can just strike the nuclear plants in iran, if they see that, for example, the iranians there want to take revenge on them for the death of general quiru, last week it was, yes, of course, they always had these plans, are they ready to strike now, because the nuclear

plants, it's not just half a step forward or back, i don't think, the point is that americans are not smaller. the consequences of this mutual exchange of blows, and it is not for nothing that now the commanders of this central committee, well, this is a military command that is responsible for the region from afghanistan to egypt, now in israel, not for that... of course in order to say that we will protect and coordinate efforts, whoever has the means, first of all air defense, but in order to prevent the israelis from taking such a step as an attack on bushehr, well, on nuclear

power plants, for example, and on the other hand, this the chance is not at bushehr, but at the places where the iranian nuclear project is being made, although it is far underground, so i don't know how effective such strikes can be. if we talk about the latest news, which concerns the alleged peace plan from erdoğan, who already denies that it was erdoğan's plan, that it was most likely the plan of putin and russia, but under the sauce of the alleged offer of turkey, this whole thing was presented in the media. well, yesterday there was also a lot of analysis about this so- called peace plan, in which it is assumed what... it's like the war is supposed to freeze on those borders that are basically the front lines now, there's supposed to be a referendum in the 40th year and the people are supposed to decide, yeah, which country they want to join or which country they want to stay in, well in short , these are some very irrational

proposals, in our opinion, which ukraine clearly does not need to agree to, because in fact... it will simply continue this conflict in 2040, if not sooner, why, how you think, now this peaceful, so-called plan got into the media, what was it calculated for, well, these are russian plans, only here there is really no point at all, and the russians want to fix the profit, there is such an exchange term, yes, when you bought shares at a cheap price, they grew, grew, and then the moment comes... when the owner of such shares says: that 's it, we fix the profit, sell, take the money, and this is a test of who agrees to what, and who will protest against which point, well, that's evidence of that ,

that they should even leave our south under control, well, ideally they should they want this ukraine, but for... but they pretend that they are ready for a suspension in order to record a profit, so that we recognize the loss of people's territory. mr. serhiy, thank you for your answers, thank you for the conversation, and for participating in our broadcast. serhii danilov, deputy director of the middle eastern studies center, was with us. if you sometimes missed parts of our conversations that interest you, you can always catch up because we have youtube. and there are all the broadcasts and special projects, there are clippings of the most important and most interesting, all this can be found there, so we encourage you to join, subscribe to our page, watch, listen, comment, because we are interested

in your thoughts, stay with us, now we will have a short break, then we will come back and have another important and interesting guest, see the press. the new metrolux mattress is made in ukraine. with love for ukrainians. matrolux is one of the largest manufacturers of orthopedic mattresses and furniture. order the camel orthopedic mattress right now. together with the mattress you you get a 5-year warranty and hundreds of nights of great sleep. dial the number you see at the bottom of the screen, and our consultants will help you choose the right size for your bed. this springless orthopedic mattress perfectly adapts to the shape and weight of your body. and that's not all. one of... on a cover made of camel wool, and the benefits of the dry heat it emits for the body are known to

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our safety. they, the boys from volyn, proved that everyone can be a warrior, strong in spirit, they appreciate the ability to stand side by side with their fellow men, until the holy victory. everyone who pilots a uav understands it, prepares, treats, repairs, winds kilometers of roads, fills piles of documents, significantly strengthens those who cover the enemy with heavy fire and floor meter by meter our native land, join the ranks of the hundredth separate mechanized brigade of the armed forces of ukraine, let's keep the line together. well, we continue to inform you about the most important events of today, oksana vysochanska and marta oliyarnyk work for you on espresso, so that you are aware of the most important events and most importantly, we were able to analyze all these events together with you that

are happening around us. we will now have the opportunity to add our next guest, in fact, with whom we will talk about the need, so our front, in particular, about the need for people. yesterday, the people's deputies finally passed the bill on strengthening mobilization, which was considered in the committees for a very, very long time, yes, but in the end , this bill... during these three months of consideration, it almost did not change in its essence, it literally had several provisions removed there , but in general , all the things that were offered from the very beginning remained there. pavlo kishkar, chief of staff, deputy battalion commander of the armed forces of ukraine, major, head of the project office accelero and the ministry of defense, the people's deputy of ukraine of the eighth convocation is already in touch with us, mr. pavle, congratulations, congratulations, studio, congratulations ukraine. well, the people's elected representatives voted on the draft law on strengthening mobilization, and in fact now in society there are

many different opinions about the wording of this law, some say that this draft law was as unconstitutional as possible, on the other hand, many military personnel say, on the contrary, that this draft law was as loyal as possible and it was necessary to prescribe stricter norms. what is your personal opinion about the draft law that was actually yesterday. was not voted, thank you for the urgent issues that are of interest to the whole society, in fact, not only the military, the adoption of the law is true, but... it is a pity that this moment was not taken advantage of and the philosophy of mobilization as such was not changed, we are again calling people to the soviet the army, we again call them into the unknown, we again cannot answer them how long they will serve, we ask them to go to the army, and immediately they spit on our souls and say that you are good for nothing influence, your attitudes, your appeals,

your beliefs are worth nothing, fight with who we are, who... who we will give you, if this is the approach, give these powers down to the middle and senior commanders, and we will conduct the selection of people ourselves, we will convince ourselves and find those who can perform it qualitatively, we don't need the tsk for this, we don't need a bunch of personnel centers above us, give us our people who we can convince to join the army, therefore directly answering your... question, we still have a negative view of this process, the process unsettled, even more issues regarding reservations, which should be canceled altogether, or set deadlines for both business and state institutions, to carry out the replacement of people, that is , men who are subject to mobilization, to

women and men who are not subject to mobilization, and the state, state institutions state enterprises must start with themselves, the first to be mobilized are men who have already taken an oath to the state, the ministry of internal affairs, the ministry of emergency situations, i don't know, all structures of state authorities, the military, civil administrations, all of them, then state enterprises, normal terms should be determined for carrying out this rotation, so that the quality of the work of these enterprises and state bodies. power did not fall, but all men who are subject to mobilization must enter the army from state enterprises and state authorities in one and a half to two years, this is my position, sorry, it may be quite harsh, but we can fight, i am developing the direction of technical mobilization in the army, we try

to do everything, but without people it is quite difficult to fight such an enemy. mr. pavle, you they talked about mobile phones. do all these things that you say, hear, also apply to recruiting, does recruiting actually show itself well, does this process manage to attract motivated people, and exactly where you expect, exactly in the units where they knock, where they come forward and say that they can be the most effective there, i'm... a mid-level commander, i tell all conscripts that if the commander promised you that he's a potra, that you'll get to him, he or something knows what i don't know or i am deliberately deceiving you, i cannot guarantee a person who goes for mobilization that he will get into my unit, yesterday

is proof of that, i could not take any of my people whom i myself called to join the army, i could not... take them for relation, according to the document to the unit, unfortunately, this procedure, which existed at the beginning of the war, has been leveled, and we are again calling people into the unknown, engineers who are worth some money, their training, who should perform intellectual work, somehow sent to completely other units, wherever their knowledge, skills and abilities are not needed at all, and this is, well, as a minimum... impractical, the army, if it is not voluntary, then it cannot fight for democracy, for democratic rights, for human rights, it somehow becomes an army of tyrants , therefore, there is another option than a radical change of the mobilization system, replacing it with high-quality recruiting, including

allowing us, as a middle- ranking commander, to carry out this mobilization or this recruitment. direct, indirect, we, we will perform the task, as you took this one from us the function, what exactly is, well, i only have emotions, what exactly is the cancellation or cancellation of these capabilities, you mentioned that at the beginning of the full-scale invasion this opportunity was there, and now it will not be, can you elaborate specifically on what it is about, yes, today's procedure requires a military serviceman to undergo a post-hoc examination. it is in the territorial center of recruitment, the so-called basic military training, which i can also conduct on my own resources and on my own in my military unit. qualitatively and a person falls behind the current procedure is necessarily to the training center, from where he does not return to me afterwards, it has been like this for a long time, well, maybe,

let's repeat it again, the procedure today is like this, it is mandatory to go through the training center, at the beginning of the war this procedure did not exist, i came to the tsc with an attitude towards a person and his people took this person to his unit, and this person could already on the spot. to undergo training, and i further trained her, yes, and i further trained her in basic military training, by those people who had already fought with me, and taught her specialization, directly, whether she is an operator of drones, whether she is an operator of an automated system or a communicator, she was trained by me according to the direction, according to her specialty, at the moment this procedure is impossible, i cannot do that, i, as a middle-ranking commander, cannot i can for... asks for people, unfortunately, you emphasize quality recruiting, and we understand that this is a completely different process from mobilization, and do you already have i will conduct

this recruitment myself, i myself am interested, i have more than a hundred people vacancies, i and people from the 14th years, who fought with me, cannot join the army now, i can’t guarantee anything, they won’t end up somewhere else before like... commanders, do it, simplify this procedure, you’ll immediately see who is an effective commander, who is not , release this story for the commanders, if mr. pavle, and please allow me to ask you, but look, it is simply important, because many units are now opening separate recruiting centers, for example, in lviv there is a separate recruiting center of vovki davinci, of the third assault division , and for example, if a person does not go to tcc, and goes to the recruiting center of a specific brigade. does this also not guarantee this person that he will get into this unit? yes, legally it is not allowed, if

the volky da vinci or the third have some agreements directly with the main personnel department, then surely such a guarantee, i cannot at my level, i also wanted to ask you your position, yesterday lviv... ludnyv the video is motivational, yes, about mobilization, and in this video, actually, if we have the opportunity to show it to our viewers, it is said that the tsc, yes, invites men of draft age to him, and each of them talks about the fact that someone is taking care of a relative with a disability, someone has a student, someone cannot go to war because of religious considerations, and actually at the end of this video they show that he is sitting in the tsk, a russian... some officer, in fact , he no longer asks them whether they have relatives there, whether they have the right to a pension, he simply tells them: no, guys, you

will go to berlin now, this is how i would be if the resolution of this video was, well, by the way, very much too there were different opinions on this work, some military personnel on the contrary said that they finally began to explain to people what awaits us, if ukrainians do not go to fight in their army, they will simply have to fight in someone else's army. and there are also people who say that this will not motivate people to go to the tcc at all. what do you think? i have four minor children and a pregnant, charming, the best, i have something to fight for, i don't know what motivation can still be. without this state, outside of this state, it is unlikely that we will be able to implement it, therefore with this respect for... the ctc they were 20 years late, therefore the work on training its people,

society, state, elements of the state, which are the armed forces and other military formations, was late years ago, mr. pavlo, you close your speaker and we i can't hear you well, but i'm sorry, i'm a lviv businessman. a video of 20 years, therefore the preparation of society, the preparation of the state, the preparation of the elements of the state, which are the armed forces, it must be, firstly, permanent, secondly, an element of mobilization, except as it can't be voluntary, i don't believe it will work, well, it didn't work before, you see how mobilization under this current law and under the new one is not much different. we only reduced the age by two years and strengthened the repressive apparatuses, this. in this, in addition to the motivation, what

should preservation actually be. of the state, saving one's own life, the lives of friends and one's own family, i don't know how to motivate more, so you have to work on it, it's a lot of work specifically on voluntary mobilization, and it starts with the fact that you go to what you understand commander, to an understandable function, where your knowledge, which is also accumulated in civilian life, will be relevant, and you will be able to use it successfully, and not in the way that a person falls into... what spheres, i don't know, tank troops, a person who knows how to drive, mr. pavle, we understand your point, we have literally two minutes left, we have one more question for you, we know that commanders often complain about the fact that there are less motivated military personnel, this is one problem, but we want to ask , are there any military personnel who can be called actually exiled cossacks, yes, those who work not for...

ukraine, but against rather, how do you fight this problem? well, today the exiled cossacks are sitting in the personnel centers, because not to assign people according to their qualifications, according to their wishes, according to the wishes of the commanders to accept them where they want, this is a crime, this is demotivation, how can i further contribute to the service and fight, if i send people now, and i have nothing else to cook, nothing... fight, i don’t know, the main demotivators are now sitting in the personnel centers, what about it fight, reduce these personnel centers, and make the army voluntary and motivate with various things, not only positive, such as salary, i don’t know, land allotments and all that , some positive things, but also negative, including limiting the opportunity to participate in elections, to accept, whether to be state authorities

or employees of local self-government bodies, well, somehow, because otherwise we will not get anything, but the most important thing is that the state must set an example, state authorities must mobilize their men who are already gave an oath to the state that they agree to defend it, so we are waiting for decisions in the future, because this law is a half measure. thank you, pavlo. shkar, chief of staff, deputy commander of the battalion of the armed forces of ukraine, major, head of the project office of the accelerator of the ministry of defense, people's deputy of ukraine of the eighth convocation, was in touch with us. actually, it turned out to be a difficult conversation, yes, but we hope that state officials will hear mr. pavel's appeals, because it is really a serious problem now, when people want to go and fight in a specific unit, but for some reason it happens that they are not taken there, or someone

prevents it. well, oksana vachanska and i are finishing up our work for today, our colleagues will continue to work for you, stay with espresso, and we will see you soon, good luck, have a peaceful and safe evening, take care! it's 5 p.m. in ukraine. for your attention, a news release on the espresso tv channel. in the studio of iryna koval. greetings to all viewers. russian troops carried out an airstrike on the civilian infrastructure of the city of sumy. this was reported in sumy.