60 days is quite a long time, there is no need or legal requirement to do it this weekend, right, that is , people have time and mr. yevgeny, dmytro lazutkin is optimistic that within two months it will be possible to reassess all conscript men in the tsc in different ways, now whole queues are lined up to the tsc, and we see in... kyiv districts that there are certainly enough of these queues and many men, how do you see this whole story with mobilization now, or will there be any corrections, will zelensky then interfere in this process and say: listen, let's make changes to the legislation there, because we don't have time, is this entire system of the tsk ready for this, because we know that the tsk is not the tsnapi, but these are former military mothers, well, with the corresponding... post-soviet consequences,

well, it so happened that in the period from january to may, i had to pass the military medical commission and clarify my documents, that is, i am already registered in the oberig system, so to speak, and it doesn't hurt, it's completely realistic, it maybe, and this, i think, should be done by every... military service man or woman and military service women to do this, it is our civic duty and it is absolutely normal. another issue is that i believe that efforts to promote the law on mobilization should be accompanied by various things, which, accordingly, should take place in the information field.

i believe that the video that was released by the ministry of defense, and where kyrylo tymoshenko himself admitted that it is an american video that will be repeated in ukrainian realities, well, this not what a country that was predicted more than 800 days ago to disappear after the first strike by russia, that is, not in the sense of cultural... that is, artistic qualities, in the sense that there should be dozens of different motivational videos like this, they have, well, give us the opportunity to sound and push for this from every iron, from every table lamp, from every mobile phone, that is, to expect that we will solve everything exclusively by law, by passing a law, well, in my opinion, this is a little naive, we need to work more seriously. systemically, if you like, more

modern, it is good that there will be an application, but it is not clear how concretely, well, it is not yet known how concretely and objectively it will work, there must be constant informational support of this process, and i will also say that mobilization involves a very significant demand for justice, and the more average people. will know about the powerful of this world, or their children and relatives who are in the ranks of the armed forces, the more will be successful in mobilization, you are talking about justice, this is literally the story of the last few days, this is the history of booking companies of several companies of employees of glovo, visa, fawbet, bookmaker. online offices,

what do these stories show, i.e. that we do not have everyone equal, that we do not have everyone to be mobilized or registered there, someone will get this reservation in some way, systems and criteria for this reservation it is decided in the ministry of economy, and not according to some other criteria, well, that is, no one can use these criteria until now. to understand, because there are some armored people, and there are unarmored ones. i will say this, mr. sergey, that it is better to be imperfect reservation system than the system where they offer, uh, the opportunity to avoid the draft depending on how much you are, what salary you will get. because such a call, such a principle, i think... is not

effective, and it will simply create a very serious social conflict inside ukraine, at the moment there are so many different ones. dividing lines in order to say that let's, well , work in this sense, that is, you know, there is another point here, i think that each of us has seen some scandalous video dedicated to tsc and work its representatives, but very few have seen a realistic video about how the representatives of the tsk work in... under normal conditions, and indeed the campaign that started about the fact that there are masked people who have already fought, and i personally saw a person , well, let's say, who was registering conscripts in one of the capital's cccs at the entrance, who has burn marks on

her face, i don't think that these are the consequences of some, some domestic incident, true, if we have been at war for more than 800 days. and that's why, you know, in my opinion, in the conditions of war, everything should be presented through personal history, and then it will be more clear, then it will have the desired effect. if there is no such effect of communication, then it will be extremely difficult to really ensure effective mobilization. that is, you want to say that our government is lacking. understanding that both the tcc and the mobilization process must be accompanied by proper informational support, and not as it is now? i want to say that we should not build a small soviet army of the times

of the soviet-german war, but we should promote the idea that ukraine is waging a war for independence and to protect ukraine from in the hands, this is an honor for those who are called to the ranks of the armed forces or to the ranks of the defense forces of ukraine, and this is a message that should be spread in dozens, maybe hundreds of different informational messages, through different channels of information dissemination, through different groups and on different targets audience, then we can talk about some kind of success, well, to be honest, you say everything correctly, but to be honest , it is strange to me that people who came to power at the expense of information and television technologies do not understand such simple it's true, nobody is perfect in this world, mr. serhiy, you know, maybe those people who formed

the election campaign in 2019 are either already fighting, or on the contrary, they avoided the draft and are somewhere in... ukraine, by the way, this is an interesting story , where there are communicators who worked with volodymyr zelenskyi and the servant of the people party during the 2019 elections. thank you, mr. yevgeny, for the conversation, it was yevhen magda, executive director of the institute of world politics. friends, we continue to work live on the tv channel, and also on our youtube and facebook platforms, for those who are currently watching us live there. please subscribe to our pages. on these platforms, and also take part in our survey. today we ask you about whether the uoc mp threatens the national security of ukraine. we have the interim results of the tv poll, we will look at it now, please put it on the screen. so, 94% yes, 6% - no. on youtube

, so far, 95% are yes, 5% are no. we will have the same survey in the second part of our program. let me remind you of the phone lines you can call and vote in this poll. if you believe that there is a threat from the uocmp to the national security of ukraine, call 0800 211-381 or 0800 211-382. call, vote, it is important for us to know your opinion. at the end of our entire broadcast, we will tally up the final results of this vote. next we have news from our partners at the bbc and beyond. news, in 15 minutes we will have a journalist club: larisa voloshina, tetiana vysotska. don't switch, stay with espresso.

glory to ukraine, dear tv viewers, on espresso tv channel, west studio program. we will analyze the most important events of this week, in particular, we will talk about russian offensive actions in kharkiv region and the great threat to sumy and sumy region. we will also analyze the situation related to the visit of putin and all his quarrels to beijing. our guests today are andriy piondkovskiy and military expert oleksiy hetman. our first guest is andrii piontkovskyi, a prominent political scientist based in washington. may god give you health, glory to andrii andriyovych ukraine. glory. well, i would like us to immediately start the analysis with the big russian case. this is how we understand that putin made great disturbances in his. and what did he do, the first thing he did was sniff at the people's

republic of china, in your opinion, what is happening now in connection with putin's visit to china? well, china's chinese visit is generally revealing, it seems that putin no longer feels the ridiculousness of this situation, when 20 people go to kiss the shoe of the chinese emperor. the very fact of such a visit shows russia's profound dependence on china. i wanted would return primarily to what you called disturbances in moscow. i believe that the majority of analysts both in the west and in russia, the most important of them, are focused on shoigu's resignation. shoigu is a banal thief, in general he was very useful to putin. putin knew perfectly well about the thefts of ivanov and shuigu himself. now he needs a campaign to discredit the army as a den of thieves. and even pay attention to the two cases of ivanov and the next arrestee, kuznyatsov. there are still words of betrayal. he needs something which would explain the massive failures of his campaign.

and what are the failures? therefore, let's return to the most important event, the shameful dismissal of patrushev. look at the whole big plane, where all the russian elite were assembled. they didn't even take patroshev. if he was simply thrown out of retirement, it would be even less humiliating than his appointment as a shipbuilding assistant. and what is the matter? you and i have talked about it 20 times. patrushev is the ideologue of the instrument of nuclear blackmail. he suggested to putin that the only way to win the west which is superior to russia in everything, economically, technologically, in conventional weapons, is to threaten and threaten to use nuclear weapons, pretend to be crazy, back off or i will use nuclear weapons, and it worked for several years, why yes ... with delays and restrictions in stages american weapons were provided,

because all the time inside the us administration there was a theme like this, we are not provoking putin, we must avoid escalation, suddenly putin will use nuclear weapons, it worked until a certain moment, i will even name this date, february 26 this year, the most difficult days for ukraine, the fourth month of hunger rations, the blocking of the aid law began its historic. lines, he exclaimed, what a weakness, as it he harshly criticized the usa, all their reds can be limited in everything by red lines, when we are dealing with an enemy that does not limit itself in anything. we must firmly declare our intention to defeat russia, and i do not rule out sending french troops to ukraine to fight russian aggression. this provoked nature. a demonstration of putin's nuclear threats again, to which macron responded brilliantly: firstly, i

want to state that we are already engaged in combat operations in ukraine and our british specialists are servicing our stormshadow and scalp missiles that we have provided to ukraine. and secondly, i want to remind you that france is also a nuclear power. it was an unexpected blow for putin. for the first time, there was someone who responded harshly to his nuclear blackmail. it immediately caused panic. you noticed that there was an outcry on russian resources. how so? france has declared war on us. she is going garrison. why haven't we destroyed it with nuclear weapons yet? why don't we strike conventionally? because the blackmailer works only as long as the victim gives in to him. putin was stripped of his scariest, most effective weapon: the threat of a nuclear strike. they said: we are not afraid of your nuclear attack. you will never hit him, because we also have nuclear weapons. and

pay attention to how the rhetoric of russian leaders has changed. the same crazy zakharova screams for retribution. we will deal terrible blows to the french and the british. but no longer says that the british isles will disappear into the abyss of the atlantic ocean. or that we will destroy paris and marseilles. it scares, and we will destroy the french military, we will kill the french. and we will send the coffins to paris, and the widows of the soldiers will come to the elysee palace and demand that macron stop the nuclear strike, the nuclear blackmail, the nuclear blackmail was pulled out. as a weapon of possible success of the russian army, but putin's whole stake, remember, before the attack on ukraine, he issued an ultimatum to nato countries. collect the manatki and get away. he was sure that nuclear blackmail would work, putin would be mad because of the failure of nuclear blackmail and fire the person who convinced him of the effectiveness of nuclear blackmail. this is a very important

event in the course of the russian-ukrainian war and the entire world war, which putin'. on the other hand, i heard another version, so we understand that patrushev is flesh from flesh, blood from blood, patrushev and the office are twin brothers, we understand that he is the product of certain structures that, in principle, stood in opposition strengthening shuigu, we understand that in principle there were rumors that patrushev was interested in strengthening prigozhin and the prigozhin mutiny or demarche. and something additional happened, why putin decided to throw patrushev down the drain, in fact. this is a military counter-intelligence competition of an army that has an age-old history. this is an argument in their eternal confrontation. but i emphasize once again, this strategic

factor is much more important than internal departmental disputes. this is exceptional. putin's effective weapon, he had no other. he is all the time used it. recall his famous press conference with macron on february 6, two weeks before the full-scale invasion of ukraine. he then slipped up, blurted out for the first time, because he was in a state of euphoria, he had just returned from china, he felt the support of china, he felt almost the master of the world, and he blurted out his secret, he said, i repeat verbatim, we understand what is conventional. level, we are inferior to the west, but - he continued to brag, we have some kind of super nuclear weapon there and so on, that was his whole concept war and remember his statement when he declared war on ukraine on february 24, his final phrase: if someone prevents us from conquering ukraine, then these countries

will befall such catastrophes that they have not seen in their thousand-year history. the question is very simple. why he was tempted by this concept of patrushev. russia is a state that is inferior to the west in everything, in technology, in the economy, in cultural development, on a conventional level, and there is approximately equality in nuclear weapons. i agree, i agree with you, but why, for example, did he transfer shuigu to patrushev's position, and did not throw him out like a lousy cat, yes, because what is called the provision of russian interventionists in russian. in the ukrainian war, well, this is the direct responsibility of the minister of defense, but no, he transferred him to the position of patrushev. this position of patrushev - the position of the secretary of the security council - is an empty position, it was important because patrushev played this important role of an ideologue of war. for 10 years, he suggested to putin this concept that we can defeat states that are much

stronger than us by blackmailing them with nuclear weapons, and now this security council. this gathering of pensioners, bears and shuigu will make some strange speeches there, it doesn't matter why i was arrested, i started with ivanov, and now kuznyatsov. putin understands, this is due to his understanding that the blackmail was carried out. now he is thinking about how to stay in power. now he will try to impose on the west and ukraine some variant of, as he calls it, korea, and still he will have to publicly admit that the main one. he should name the culprits, the ministry of defense will be named guilty, there there will be a huge process of generals, and he still has some personal, close relationship with shoigu, if shoigu cannot be put on the dock, because everyone remembers

their joint campaigns in the tunic taiga, and how close they were , then he simply took shoigu to... not a warm place, took traitors, thieves in the ministry of defense out of the future process. this is my explanation, this is an empty place and there is no power of shuigu there. he needs a long war, he repeats it every day, that this fool bilousov is set up, who, we are told, is the only person in russia who does not steal, although this raises great doubts. data on the palaces of the same bilousov have already appeared, but now he has a double task. he realized that the victory over ukraine, in the sense in which they wanted to achieve it, the destruction of ukrainian statehood, will never happen, now it is necessary to crawl away. he wants to keep this korean version of territorial grabs as much as possible and sell it as a sort of draw, but a draw is not a victory, because the credo and the traitors of the ministry were in the way

defense, there will be a huge process over them. this is what putin is busy with now and what is the meaning of these two sensational resignations? well, this is an extremely powerful working version, but returning, for example, to the same bilousov, the new minister. defense, or rather, attack of the russian federation. we understand that the long war against ukraine you mentioned involves resources and the restructuring of what was calculated, for what, during the blitz-krig. the blitzkrieg was defeated thanks to the courage and skill of the armed forces of ukraine. but a long war, it assumes that, resource competitions. and accordingly, we understand that the russian generals did not cope with... with what, in principle, the representatives of the nabiulina clan coped with her, that is, people who manually adjusted the russian economy, switching it to new

markets and so on and so forth, building bridges with india or china, and trying to diversify one or another of its gray supplies of energy resources, well, bilousov, as a cybernetician, in principle belongs to that environment, and we understand that it is simply possible.. others decided to cut him tasks, to prepare the ministry of defense, primarily as a logistics center, because the war must be managed by someone, the general staff. he left gerasimov, and gerasimov, well, no less than he is responsible for all that the russian generals fortunately failed. there is a huge mistake in this concept of a long war, which looks so attractive to russia, because the ukrainian war is a composition of two different warriors. on the one hand, there is a huge front line (1000 km) along which a classic war of attrition is being waged, as general zaluzhnyi wrote in his famous article,

similar to the first world war, and in this long war of attrition, russia already has a strategic advantage, because it has a greater human mobilization resource, a developed military-industrial complex, and as you know, in russia the value of human life is much lower, there you can throw unlimited the number of soldiers in a meat attack, but there is another component in this ukrainian war, this is the crimean peninsula, the birthplace of the russian military machine, the clausewitzian, this is the center of gravity of this war. ukraine , having neither a fleet nor an air force, expelled the whole russian fleet from crimean ports. every day we see missile strikes, now thank god it's not just storm shadow and scalp. the americans gave the attacks as much as possible. that is, this concept of a long war will not work if the announced concept of macron with the participation of the armed forces of france, england, and sweden is

really implemented in ukraine, it will not be implemented by infantry divisions. macron does not have infantry divisions that can replace ukrainian ones on the front line. he has aviation. macron protests against red lines. i think the stupidest red line which we all took upon ourselves, who steered the event. planes must have ukrainian pilots. why definitely ukrainian pilots? we have been waiting for these ukrainian pilots for two years. because it is not so simple: to train pilots for one pilot there must still be three or four service people, there must be airfields and the rest. much more efficiently, everything is done by coordinated aviation units of french mirages, english typhoons, and swedish gripens, which take off from polish airfields. and romania. poland and romania are already real is discussed not only that, i tell my ukrainian audience about it every day. this is already

discussed by general buzhansky in solovyov as a real possibility. the russians have already understood this. by the way, when discussing, they no longer say that they will launch nuclear strikes on romania and poland. they realized that this concept had failed. macron is very well behaved in the nuclear sphere. he offered a spread. the french nuclear umbrella over the entire european union, to provide nuclear guarantees, and this is an interesting idea, to declare its nuclear forces as eu nuclear forces. so this concept is long war will be destroyed, 100, at most 200 of these western planes from the airfields of poland and romania, armed with stormshades and french scalps, will be enough to drive the crimean group out of there, well , that's if they dare and take such a step. aviation, together with the crews and the corresponding infrastructure, will be launched into the russian-ukrainian war, but for now, at the present moment, we see putin's visit

to the chinese people's congress. i.e. the entire pack that he brought along with him, we understand it so that the chinese comrades would have a look, but the key story is that he has to hear what they want to tell him and whether he will hear what xijin ping tells him. the chinese comrades are perfectly aware of the humiliated position of russia. i would point out that in my opinion, many underestimated macron's meeting with xi. judging by the explosion of publications, simultaneously in the chinese and french press,. she was very successful. macron took everyone somewhere to the places of his youth in the pyrenees. now the big powers are china, the usa and france. france realized its role as a great power for the first time in recent decades. this desire is the main driver for macron in his claim to become the leader of the free world, the leader in the defense of ukraine in the war. the dream of the second yalta actually remained with the russians. for 10 years, they offered the second

yalta. like, let's share the world. we will have the post-soviet space, ukraine and the rest, you somewhere else. but the chinese, french and americans are now working on the concept of a third yalta, without russia. macron is playing a very interesting game there, what do they have in common with these. you know what they found a common language, not only that russia will not be a great power, they are not they also want american domination in the future world. macron has a very strong american component, and the chinese have a very strong one. well, de gaulle's concept, only instead of the soviet union, macron is starting to look for contacts with beijing. de gaulle did not want to be just america's junior partner, and he always had a special relationship with moscow. and now, when moscow will turn into zero after the defeat in the ukrainian war, it will have a special relationship with beijing, and beijing needs france, because it is one thing to struggle in the future world with the usa alone. and another thing

- have france, have a triangle, such a big triangle is emerging in the post-russian world, france, china and the usa. well, accordingly, and putin, as far as we understand, left with another offer with another proposal, or maybe he was simply asked, well, tell putin about your plans. so what is your long war, see the difference? putin speaks, and the chinese listen. all the resources are in china, all trump cards are now in china, and almost all chinese banks have stopped large transfers with russia, he can strengthen the trend, he can weaken it. now putin will desperately try to persuade china to join the plan of the korean scenario in relation to ukraine. by the way, this is a dangerous korean scenario, because america would agree to it. and we see the inconsistency of the biden administration. for example, sullivan

arrived in the most difficult. times when there was no help to prevent the ukrainians from striking oil refineries in russia. it is very good that the ukrainians did not listen to him. all these hesitations in the american administration will continue, and they would agree to the korean option. andrew andriyevich, well, the danger of the korean scenario is that at one time we remember that more than a million people died, on both sides, that is... then stalin and his koreans were pelted with puppets, the entire korean peninsula with corpses, that was the danger, and we see putin's readiness to exchange in meat assaults all that is called russian infantry, so according to the concept of general shapushnikov, it was called an offensive before the end of the offensive impulse. offensive momentum is live russian meat that they throw, but we understand

that they now have a sufficient number of trained people, in principle, this does not apply to the kharkiv operation now, because the resource base is not sufficient, it is also about personnel, it is also about equipment and so on, but this does not mean that that putin will not try to push his vision of the korean war, well, the key thing is that the war in korea ended not even when the offensive impulse of the russian-korean-chinese interventionists ended, it ended when stalin died, and this one... despite solov's prophecies i'm still alive not only that, that stalin died. not only did stalin die, 100,000 american soldiers remained in south korea for another 50 years. this was the main thing in the korean scenario. if putin did, it would be a great gift to all of humanity. but i went into detail about the korean scenario because i have to…