benefits or other welfare benefits. maybe encourage some of the things that can help the situation work out like going to look for a job. some of the care things you're talking about but the money this is the universal basic income thing, right? jackie: right. brian: no strings. give them money. there is some faith it will all work out. taylor: what did you say the other day, hand up versus handout? big distinction between the two. brian: we lost it sadly. need to get it back. taylor: who hasn't lost it, charles payne. i know you're with us. charles: becoming a citizen of san francisco. they are giving out a bun. of cash. sorry about that. thanks a lot. good afternoon, everyone, i'm charles payne. this is "making money." breaking now, so the day after, right. the market decided maybe the fed will put it on pause. i got to tell you there is still a whole lot of confusion over janet yellen and jerome powell's failure to communicate with each

other. how likely the most aggressive rate hiking cycle ever comes to a halt because fragile banks simply stop lending? we have a powerful start to the show. liz ann sonders, ed yardeni, lyn alden. forget about covering all depositors. i have a guest who says the fdic insurance created more problems that than it solved. we should get rid of it completely. the ceo of tiktok is smiling, smirking as he tries toe save the app in the united states. larry kudlow sounds off at 2:40. could perp walks what we need to get trust in the financial system? the antidote to swagger of thieves is maybe put them in jail. all that and much more on "making money." ♪. charles: so it as controversies go it might not make the top 10

of 2023 heck might not make the top 10 of march of 2023. heck a lot of puzzlement between the scheduling snafu between janet yellen and jay powell yesterday. powell went off script. it was not in the script when he started q&a session. he had to get comments about the small banks and risks they pose. if left unaddressed they can undermine confidence in healthy banks. so the whole thing would be undermined it would threaten the ability of the entire banking system that was a pretty bold statement to say. he went on to say the banking system is sound, it is resilient with strong capital, liquidity with all the other things the fed chairman would like to say. here is powell at the beginning of the meeting. he is making us feel pretty good. janet yellen steps up to the plate. she begins to speak at the senate hearing. first thing she stopped with implicit, explicit game. essentially saying deboss at this timers more than $250,000

in the bank if your bank goes out of business you're in trouble, right? that revelation sent us into this sort of death spiral into the close. i will say there is some good news. i want to share it with you here. this anxiety, this fear, daily searches related to bank withdrawals, we saw earlier in the month it spiked dramatically. it is coming down, starting to settle down a little bit. that is good news. here is the bad news this really something that we talked about a lot here on the show recently, the notion of banks, run on banks if you will this is january of has year. large banks have been seeing deposits come out for a year, well over a year. more recently, so have small banks. this is not a new thing. joining me now, charles schwab and company chief investment strategist liz ann sonders. what are the chances the bank scare itself could help the fed finish the job they began, allow powell and company to step off the pedal a little bit?

>> i think it is possible that may have been the reason for what could have been seen as just subtle language change from additional increases to just more policy firming. the market certainly took it as that way. even though powell said or the dot plot showed another hike coming and no cuts, that is not what the market has priced in. that may be due to the possibility, not so much that the crisis itself is exacerbated here but the likely additional tightening of credit standards and possibly a credit crunch, that is inherently disinflationary and weakens the economy which could go a long way in helping solve the inflation problem. so i think there was a lot of connecting of the dots that were necessary after yesterday's meeting. charles: what was intriguing about that, we saw in the last senior loan survey from the fed that had already started t was pretty dramatic.

i felt it was underreported. there was not a big reaction to that. i'm sure the next time that report we're expecting to see even more dramatic change there. i read your commentary on the fed from yesterday. seems like you're saying okay, we've got the rolling recession and it will roll into a formal recession. if that is the case, can powell use that to take a victory lab and what would it mean for markets? >> well depends on what you mean by a victory lap. i don't think he would say yeah, recession, exactly what we're looking for. by victory lap could that be a set of growth circumstances that the fed pauses sooner rather than later? that is certainly a possibility. we have to remember that as a marker for recession if you're waiting for the official declaration, the mber, national bureau of economic research is the official arbiter, they simultaneously on the day they say okay, it is a recession they announce when it started. the average span of when they

say we're in a recession and when they go back and say it started is eight months. charles: right. >> there are times where it has been even longer than that. i would say there are going to be signals, many which we're already seeing with the inversion of yield curve, tightening lending standards, 11 months in a row of declining leading indicators definitely point to recession not to mention the rolling recession pockets of the economy have been in recession. i think if credit standards tighten even further you end up with a credit crunch. i think it is all but inevitable. i think that may be what is embedded in the market's view the fed will pause sooner than what they're suggesting. charles: to your point, jay powell is not looking for recession. they loweredded gdp for this year and next year but officially wouldn't say it will be negative growth. i haven't seen that yet. cme fed watch they're saying okay, no more hikes. then we pause here but then

beginning in july of this year all the way until july of next year, just the series of rate cuts and, what bothers me with this, liz ann, if this is true, that means they have wrecked the economy to be this dramatic. what do you make of it? >> nothing is true prospectively, not the cme tool, market expectations. we've seen in the last two weeks we'll jump all over the place. on march 8th, if you looked at the fed funds future curve showed a terminal rate of 5.7% and no cuts. that plunged in the wake of failure of silicon valley bank, popped back up again. neither the fed's dot plots, summary of economic projections, tool like cme tool is anything resembling a roadmap for what is actually going to happen. so the one thing i would say about the prospect of rate cuts, to the extf an overall goldiloc, really optimistic narrative, that is what really doesn't make

sense. it is certainly possible that by mid-year, the fed might be cutting interest rates but not if everything is sort of status question where it is right now. it would only be either because not just inflation continues to come down but you get enough weakness in the labor market to suggest that it is likely to stay down and or, a further dislocation in the financial system that in of itself leads the fed to act more aggressively. this idea that we can kind of stay in this environment of still high inflation, still tightness in the labor market, simmering problems but not a crisis, systemic crisis in the banking system, the fed is going to say, yeah, let's turn around to pivot to cuts -- charles: right. >> that whole narrative makes no sense in my mind. charles: we should remind folks when they initially start cutting more often than not the market goes down because of things you talked about. the economy in that moment of time is probably in shambles and we don't want that liz ann, thank you very much.

appreciate it. >> my pleasure. charles: folks, when the fomc decision was announced many immediately called it the dovish hike. phil here on the set was calling it that. but the market began to stumble. my next guest wrote that yellen and powell need to get that acts together. i want to bring in yardeni research president ed yardeni. ed, who made the unforced error here? >> janet yellen definitely made the error. she was too specific. in this situation you have to be vague what you intend and stay positive and she focused on deposit insurance and she said that she hasn't had any conversations about increasing deposit insurance. neither the treasury or fed has the bailiwick that belongs to the federal deposit insurance corporation and congress would have to get on the same page for that.

powell said don't banks will implode. we'll provide them with liquidity, your deposits are safe from that perspective. charles: i saw a article couple days ago, it mentioned ann petty for, british economist predicted the global crash. she said the banks are choosing class warfare over financial stability. i thought about you. you've been imploring the fed slow down, stop, they have done enough. so does she have a point? >> i guess. i don't think of the situation in those kind of terms. what i think is that the fed has been fighting inflation and now suddenly it is realizing it has a financial stability issue. i think from the perspective of the here and now the fed has got to respond to this banking crisis by holding off on anymore

tightening and i think the banking crisis demonstrates they are at restrictive levels of interest rates where they wanted to get all along and the yield curve has been predicting it and the yield curve has been right. charles: are you still in the soft landing camp and does that mean if that is the indicates -- >> yes. charles: people should be buying this market on dips? should they be buying stocks and bonds on dips? >> well we should have bought the nasdaq not too long ago. it is up 20%. it had a great run. some of the mega cap stocks have done splendidly well. that is kind of a, doesn't fit into the bearish scenario that is out there. but, yeah, i think october 12th is when we made our low in the bear market. i think we're in a bull market but it is not a straight up bull market. charles: sure. >> it will be a stock-picker's market for a while. there is uncertainty about the banking crisis. there is uncertainty how the fed and treasury will respond to all

of that but i think there are opportunities here. if you look at a long-term chart of the nasdaq, you have to con chewed this is a pretty good opportunity to buy it for the long run. charles: i could not argue with you, particularly with your track record. thank you so much, my friend. appreciate it. >> thank you. charles: so folks in 2011 there was an article in the new yorker it began with this sentence, on july of 2008, on eve of biggest financial crisis in memory, the european central bank did something predictable and stupid. they raised interest rate. they said the move was predictingable because then the president jean-claude beshe. he sees inflation but the economy is going to hell in a handbasket. nevertheless they hiked rates any way. bring in lyn alden from lyn alden investment strategy. there are whispers that the fed may be having a truchet moment?

do you agree. >> back to the 1970's, you talk about inflation, a lot of inflation was driven by lending, excessive bank lending. inflation was low but they fought rates raising them dramatically. this looks more like the 1940s. we have very high debt levels. a lot of inflation is fiscal driven inflation. the fact they're focusing on one or two tools they have to try to fight this inflation is understandable but obviously coming at major costs to financial stability. charles: you know beginning with the silicon valley bank and over the last few sessions in fact over the last five sessions, lyn, hardest hit not financials, not financials, real estate by far getting absolutely annihilated and are we pay not paying attention to commercial real estate will implode? >> i think that is danger area. the banking system, then there is the shadow banking system.

additional layers less opaque, various types of funding markets. a lot of that is used to fund real estate. similar problems we're seeing in the transparent banking space are also in those shadow banking spaces that lend to real estate. i think the big areas of concern are the smaller banks and especially office, real estate. real estate not heavily used or overleverred. that is the dangerous part of the economy. whereas other parts of the economy are quite strong. travel oriented parts of economy, other parts are booming that kind of small banking real estate sector is dangerous. charles: do you think the fed should be focused on trying to tamp down that niche? he talked about service economy being 56% but again, to me if a bunch of people are taking three-day weekends to work from home to fly down to cabo, whatever it is, does the fed need to arrest that it feels like at some point they will run out of that money anyway? >> i think they can give it time.

we've seen in the past few years the fed is very aggressive both up and down. very rapid to cut rates, print a lot of money when things are weak. in this environment they are very rapidly tightening and they have broken certain things. there is a case to be made that the could move slower either up or down. not really a hawkish or dovish case. more of a case about the speed which they respond to these things. charles: right. >> let the markets itself out over long. charles: been long since we last spoke. last 30 secondses tell me what you're buying, what you like here. >> energy pipelines. situations where banks lent long duration low interest rates, a lot of energy pipelines are opposite side of that they borrowed long duration loans at low interest rates. they bought real assets with it. that is an interesting space to look. charles: lyn, appreciate it. you do amazing work, thanks for coming on. >> thank you. charles: folks so many ideas, so many, topics, discussions, never

enough time. so one thing i do i write every single night, every single morning, it is free, go to wstreet.com. check out my thoughts, my opinions. i know you will like it. coming up back in 2017 my next guest discussed, the weakness, weakness of government backed deposit insurance. mark mark calabria, whether we should rid of the fdic once and for all. ♪. you'll always remember buying your first car. but the things that last a lifetime like happiness, love and confidence... you can't buy those. but you can invest in them. at t. rowe price, our strategic investing approach can help you build the future you imagine.

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charles: so there is still talk of deposits of all sizes, folks, every depositor being covered by the fdic remember right now 7.45 trillions of dollars of deposits are insured but 10.5 trillion are not. instead of covering everyone we didn't cover anyone? cato institute senior advisor, shelter from the storm, mark calabria. mark in 2017, you wrote, seems

very provocative, government-backed deposit insurance, weakens, weakens market disciplines, increases moral hazards and leads to higher financial risk. you're saying having insurance is the problem here? >> absolutely and i believe that more than ever today. you know the 250 limit is far beyond what the typical household would need. the typical household has less than 10,000 in deboss its. we could greatly thing the number and take care of retail deposits. most sophisticated households, sophisticated businesses can monitor this. there is a market already in existence for private deposit insurance. if we made that bigger that market would grow. that is absolutely something the market could do here. let me emphasize who can monitor these institutions? remind ourselves again, econ 101 prices are set at margin. you don't need all insured depositors to monitor

institution to force good behavior and good management you only need a small amount. people see silicon valley bank the counter to that. the fact if uninsured depositors had not left silicon valley bank the regulators would continue missing problems at silicon valley bank. the uninsured depositors in fact forced regulators to act. charles: with that in mind, i feel silicon valley bank is so unique. >> that's true. charles: venture capitalists pressured them to keep money there. a lot of companies kept their money there. a lot of companies in the ipo pipeline kept their cash there. seems unlikely it would play any out anywhere else, the idea of having insurance makes people feel good. you think authorities sparked a bank run by overemphasizing there could be a bank run? >> i think they have, the communication on this has been disturbing. first of all, you know, i worked in a white house, you don't ever

want to put the president out there talking about something like this. once presidency is behind this, everybody looks as it is important. you might see the same thing. i got countless calls after the president spoke, should i be paying attending to the banking system? is it okay? you made people concerned about something they shouldn't be as concerned about. we see difficult comments from powell, different comment from yellen. this administration they need to get on the same talking sheet and communicate this clearly. i think they made a molehill into a mountain. we know how to deal with failing banks. there are procedures. charles: right. >> they dropped, deviated from the procedures. now we're back to that kind of 2008 ad hoc, who knows how people will be treated next? again, it is really kind of sending, injecting more uncertainty into the market than need be. charles: i think that is part of the bailout culture though mark. >> it is. charles: before i let you go, you're such an expert on

housing. yesterday we get the existing home sales. as you look at it, not only was it a disappointment, first-time buyers, right? you want the american dream out there, 27%, historically 40% is sort of the norm. another thing happening, this is evolution of the size of the apartment. in the last 10 years look how small apartments have gotten. they're just shoe boxes. meantime homes are like megahomes. you sit there, wonder, a young people sitting at home, they could never afford the megahomes. that is all they build. they are sitting in apartments smaller and smaller. how do you untie that gourdian knot. >> a lot of apartment demand households are shrinking. people instead of having two or three kids, they're having one kid. that might only be a function only being able to get small apartment. you're seeing increased rental demand from elderly who may be living by themselves. i share concern we're having across there. i'm proud of the time i was running the federal housing

finance agency. we saw record increases in homeownership in my tenure. we created sustainable homeownership there is a right way to do it. i am worried i think the apartment sector is getting overbuilt. we have a correction coming in my view in the apartment sector. you need to be able to fix zoning laws. you need to fix affordability here so people can buy homes. charles: right. >> to be able to have the first home to have a family together, have a yard. many of these things are crucial. now of course you have got to have affordable rental options as well. again we're only seeing this, really haven't fully seen a correction in the housing market yet. i, i say this yeah, volumes have fallen off. sales are down, construction's down. but you haven't really started to see the real price adjustments yet other than places like california. i put it this way, i think we're in the second or third inning of a housing correction. i think we have a ways to go to get through it. charles: sounds good, mark. congratulations on the book.

>> pleasure to be here, charles. charles: tiktok ceo getting grilled by both sides of the aisle down there in washington, d.c. can he save the app? larry kudlow on do we want to safer the app? air is seeping out of balloon, so what should you be buying? eva and keith fitz-gerald with optimism about the stocks they think you should be buying next. ♪.

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gathering really matters. that is how you assess how investors feel. many people feel if the fed they're almost done. in that case they should be looking to make money. netflix is leading the charge. word apple will invest a billion dollars on movies released in theaters, other platforms. you have the megacap names leading the parade. we have eva otto and keith fitz-gerald of the keith fitz-gerald group. i want an idea, does today's action the street is cool with one more rate hike, if that is the is car, do we see a greater sense of urgency that the train is leaving the station? >> our view on the markets didn't change before the meeting or after. the fed signaled we would probably have one less rate hike than we what initially expected. instead of four we'll have three. that means one more. on the other hand banking crisis is doing the work for them. we have now tightening bank

standards. the bottom line the net effect is the same. our view on the markets is same it was on monday. charles: what was that? >> so we continue to expect that entrepreneur hal companies and growth companies will outperform as inflation is going to continue to come down. but that being said there is a lot of volatility in the market. for that reason we're moving higher in market cap. charles: okay. >> we're looking at great margins, cash flow and low debt. charles: so, keith, one thing though the air is coming out of the balloon a little bit. are people buying dips, selling the rip what the heck is going on? >> i think they're doing exactly what eva is talking about. we're in the exact same camp. now is not the time to hit home runs. move up the value chain, more liquid names, things that can protect your capital and grow at the same time no matter what stupid things the fed does that. charles: with that in mind, ava, give you shoutout.

entrepreneur etf up 20% first three months. russell is hot, that is up almost 9%. you're smoking it right there but you're saying maybe when you say move up the food chain, these are more established i wouldn't say they're entrepreneurial companies anymore, are they? >> so, charles, the key thing here, many people don't know this if you look at the russell 1000 growth, 50% of their return comes from two names and 90% of the returns comes from five names. that is how concentrated they are. now compared to that 50% of our returns comes from 12 names and 90% of our returns comes from 30 names. that is how diversified their performance is. that means, less concentration risk, not just compared to the russell 1000 growth but even more, to well-known innovative funds who are, like today they're struggling with key names where they're very highly concentrated on. so i think the diversifying your portfolio. charles: right.

>> being, being careful with concentration risk is key in these volatile markets. >> irony of that of course microsoft and apple are 13% of the over all s&p 500 there is a double-edged sword there too. keith i was reading you like big brands, big margin protections and dividend. i never put dividends and keith fitz-gerald in the same sentence before? >> well, my alter ego speaking. dividends are really great. here's why, charles, is because even if the stocks fall, you got a company firing on all cylinders, the companies want their products, continuing to beat a path to their door, energy, for example, defense for example, those are things that can grow even if the stock market themselves get weak. that is why we're focusing right now on those big particular names. charles: i know you like lockheed martin and chevron for example. i got less than a minute to go, ava. what do you like here? >> so i like sales force and i like google.

we're going up in market cap. , those, both companies have very good margins. they're growing their ebitda in a very high rate and so i like the fact that they are providing some stability in this market. we always own these companies but we now have moved them to a higher weight in our portfolios. charles: congratulations again. that is a sizzling start to otherwise tough year for most folks. congratulations. it ain't easy. keith, thank you so much, my friend. coming up, folks, the race for the best safety asset, right? which one do you want to put your money in? should you put it in miners, gold, what about bitcoin? j.c. parets will give all the charts with the edge. after the break, ceo of tiktok testifying on capitol hill. did he stave off a ban or did he actually make it worse? larry kudlow is here in studio with his analysis. he is next.

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to reflect on those who have sacrificed so much to defend our freedom. i know how much you care about america and our veterans and all the things. but you have such a platform now. yeah. and to share that with us that we need to get the word out that we have to take care of these great heroes and their families. you know, as i started to be more and more successful, i was like, how can i help? but when i heard of the tunnel of the towers, and i met brandon in idaho and his family, i was like, wow. there's actually a charity where we know where the money's. going to go. we have 95.1% of every dollar goes to our programs. and i think brandon's a great spokesman for t2t and and his wife, shannon, has two daughters. i mean, oh, my god. they're just special families. so pretty much, if you put your life on the line, if something goes bad, they're there. that's awesome. yeah. they're incredible people, man. you saw all the stuff we put in these homes, right? i was i was blown away. and they deserve it. they earned it. this is not of course, we give them a mortgage

free home, but look what they gave up. they gave up their bodies so, cole, why should americans give donate help? tunnel to towers foundation. i mean, is there any better organization to help the people that has fought for this country and the freedoms that we have? it's that simple. it is that let's take care of each other. and you're going to join us on that mission. thank you. hey, i'm cole hauser. i want you to join me in supporting our nation's heroes and their families. it's only $11 a month. go to t2t dot org. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so... ...glad we did this. [kid plays drums]

life is for living. let's partner for all of it. i'm so glad we did this. edward jones ♪. charles: so all the market moving news these days seems to be coming out of washington, d.c. just a hotbed of activity, all impacting the economy and your wallet. joining me the host of "kudlow" on fox business, larry kudlow. larry, i want to cover a few things with you. we got to start with this tiktok ceo. somewhat well-prepared. someone had him in a room beating hem up with all these different questions. a little cocky to me, occasionally smirking. what is interesting he got it from both sides. if i was a handicapper i would say there seems a better chance than not they will walk away from this saying we have to stop this some way, somehow. do you agree there should be a ban of tiktok? >> i do.

i completely agree. this was something the trump administration was focusing on the clock ran out. we were heading toward getting rid of tiktok. make no mistake about it, bytedance, which owns tiktok, is instrumentty of the chinese government and chinese communist party. that is by law, any of these companies can be mandated to provide information. all this is a way for the chinese to get hold of mass, massive amounts of personal information by anybody, not only people that use the app, people used to use the app. you can't rewire these things. china is a our greatest ads very se ri. they are not friendly competitors. they are our adversary. we need to get this stuff out, it goes right to beijing. charles: what do you think of a apologists it might be smart for government agencies to get off of it but what is the harm of

eight million small businesses using it? or another angle, new york representative bowman, outright racist for republicans to get rid of tiktok. >> that is a little sy argument. they use that for everything. the more important argument, i don't want to hurt small business. they can use a different app. these tiktok apps tell you where you are, what you're nearby, as well as personal information. thisthis is one of the chinese tactics if you will in their economic war and their national strategy war against the united states. they love to know, are you near an army base? are you near an air force base? are you near an icbm nuclear base? they love that stuff. and any pictures that are ever taken goes right into the information stream. charles: right. >> those are reasons why tiktok must go. this is not some harmless think

link. the other point i seen from both sides of the aisle, they are attempting to show people how to think and react about a number of issues. they send little messages through this. charles: right. >> which is really an unbelievable form of communist propraganda. for that reason tiktok must go. it cannot be rewired in my judgment. we looked at that several years ago and i think you have a bipartisan majority to get rid of tiktok. hopefully joe biden will follow through on this original trump policy. charles: instead of the manchurian candidate we'll have a manchurian nation. >> manchurian candidate, they're trying to shape your minds. charles: right. >> they're trying to put incredibly bad thoughts into young people that use tiktok also. stories i have heard what they put and broadcast through tiktok are incredible, absolutely incredible. charles: you mentioned joe biden, president biden with

his first veto. a bill would have banned federal managers from retirement plans from using esg as a metric, right, when making investment choices. you're one of those hands off the government shouldn't put finger on the scale one way or the other. >> yeah. charles: by vetoing, if i'm a money manager, government gifts me money to manage, president wants me in esg fund i probably will have to own some, even though everyone is getting out, because they're losing money. i may have to buy it because i don't want the white house to be angry pat me and take the account from me? >> i don't know how many money managers are worried about the whether the white house is angry at them. charles: only if you're managing money. >> i don't imagine anyone would. i look back to the erisa act

passed the late 197 '50s by jacob javits you have the fiduciary responsibility to have the highest rate of return to your investors. charles: bottom line. >> bottom line. that is the most important thing. corporate ceos should think about, as well as money managers. charles: real quick a minute to go, this week the latest monthly survey of global money managers came out. a systemic credit event, has surged, has surged past inflation as the top biggest tail risk. what does that say to you? does that suggest there is not a lot of confidence that the powers that be can ring post something if it gets out of hand? >> well, interesting. i haven't even seen, where is the first republic sale by the way. charles: not sure. >> jamie dimon wanted the government involved. maybe the government will take it over. i think a lot of the biden people would love to have government run banks instead of privately run banks. you say bank of america? charles: no, they do the survey. it is about, it is about all over the world.

they manage a trillion bucks. they do it every single month. i love the survey. it gives you insight to what they're doing. they're saying this is the biggest tail risk, some systemic credit event. not the event would be bad in my mind. just that authorities would not be able to stem it. that is what i think they're saying here. >> look it, it is hard to separate the two. you know inflation and this systemic risk and bank problem, there are two sides of the same coin. i mean the original sin was overspending and overmoney printing which created the inflation which led to the interest rates. charles: right. >> which led to silicon valley. charles: vicious cycle. >> but i do think, look, we don't see signs of clear contagion yet and i hope it doesn't happen. charles: sure. >> but you can't be confident about that and one of the crazy parts of this story is the behavior and performance of janet yellen who says one day you know what? we may have to go to universal

insured, uninsured accounts. then she says, wait a minute, i didn't say that. then jay powell hints at that. the government is not together. they do not have a coherent plan either to deal with these bank problems or, i might add, to stop spending money with is the root cause of inflation in the first place. it is just crazy. so this poll is right on both counts. i don't need to separate them out. charles: this is before yesterday's fiasco. by the way folks, why larry is the best, and number one. you always catch him @4:00 p.m. if you don't catch him this afternoon, we'll be right back. >> we will do yellen. fetime like happiness, love and confidence... ♪.

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charles: so certain investments have been standing out this year. some for big moves to the upside. some are at critical support points. either way you might be looking at some major opportunities. joining me all-star charts founder, chief strategist, j.c. parets. i'm grad you're with us. 2003, we had a few standouts, bitcoin is one of them. bitcoin rose to the occasion. when it was doing this folks who love about it coin, it will go to 10,000, then i will buy. >> yeah. charles: did they miss the point? still looking at the chart. you're the chart master. where do we gopro here?

>> depends on your timeline. can i draw here. charles: do it. >> this fancy line. can bland -- kablam this is the peak in the prior cycle. we're holding above those levels. if we're above the prior cycle peak don't see any reason not to be long. quite the opposite, we want to be long. but when you zoom in, fancy lines at 30,000, that is the next level. that is the hurdle. if we're able to exceed that hurdle, i think we rip through the all-time highs. charles: talking retesting all-time highs. >> i think we go to 100. charles: my goodness. 100,000 bitcoin. here is what people talk to me about a lot. listen, i see gold going up. the price of gold looks amazing, right? doing great, going higher, higher. my gold stocks are going down. where is the disconnect? people want access to this, they don't necessarily, i don't buy coins, buy whatever, used to be people felt they could, for a while they traded in tandem. they don't do that anymore.

>> gold miners, liar standing next to a hole in the ground mark twain? there is good wisdom there, charles. they're not buying those. they're buying the metal itself. who are we to judge or argue. buy the winners. charles: people aren't sure, find a way to buy the metal? >> same way bitcoin is above the prior cycle highs from 2017, gold above the 2011 highs, 1900, 2,000. same trade. you buy it if we're above the pryer cycles highs. if we're above 2000. i think three thousand is next for gold. charles: i hope so, it has been a while. talk about financials, something the opposite, testing support. xlf under a lot of pressure this year what are we looking for? >> you want to draw the fancy line? charles: draw it. >> same thing right there, pry cycle highs, 30, 31 bucks on the xlf think about it, charles, that was the peak in financials before the great financial crisis. i would argue those are some of the most important prices in stock market history. charles: if they hold, if we

hold here, start to pounce up, where do you buy? where is your buy signal on the upside? >> honestly i'm not buying financials. we're using financials as a gauge to measure risk in the market to buy other stocks. financials, there is better places to be, but the bottom line if financials are below the prior highs. the risk is to the downside in stocks in general. charles: free fall, bringing everyone. >> this is a big one, charles. charles: 30 seconds, market gave up a lot of gains of what happened here? is this not sure about the fed or something else be at play. >> i don't know about the fed. market is trading a long time before the fed made announcement yesterday. i think the risk is in financials. if we lose those prior cycles highs, if you see xlf trading in 20s, 28, 29, that is a big problem for the overall market in general. we want to stick with winners. if gold is breaking out we want to buy gold. if bitcoin ask breaking out, buy

bitcoin. stick with leadership. why look around in the garbage? charles: yesterday the kre was down almost sick%. people feel more uneasy after yesterday. >> if we were talking about utilities, charles, we wouldn't care this is financials. charles: thank you, jc. my fakeaway why a few perp walks would get us to believe in the banking system again. we'll be right back. ♪.

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charles: all right, so i spent some time here in the break because we gave up a lot of gainses. the nasdaq holding on, but even that's shead off about two-thirds of the gains we saw earlier today. there's some speculation that a maybe later on this afternoon when the fed balance sheet comes out, we'll see a significant increase. remember, last week it was $300 billion, and what's intriguing about that, yesterday jay powellen spent a lot of time trying to explain how this increase is not the same as qe. but it it certainly would mean that they're concerned, right in they're circling the wag gones, and if you keep saying there's nothing wrong with the principal reserve and the banks, then why

would you need, let's say, $600 billion in two weeks to prop them up? so maybe this is where the weakness the coming from, certainly there's some angst. now the, these aren't big moves, but again after yesterday and after the start we had today and also considering that wall street is looked at rate cuts, just maybe, just maybe this could be why we're pulling back here. something to watch for. the last hour of trading going to be a lot more exciting than normal and, folks, it's always exciting. right, liz claman? liz: oh, yeah. [laughter] exciting kind of like, you know, blood dripping from your jaws exciting because i've got to the the tell you, charles, look at the lower bug here as we kick off the final hour of trade. there goes that roaring rally we just saudis pate 40 minutes ago -- saw dissipate. stocks reverse aring course and now the dow and the s&p are iffy. we've got the dow jones industrials down 1 point, the s&p -- which had been negative a minute ago concern up 5 points. but remember, for the dow we had been