headwinds. brian: right. >> because the bidens are still pouring on the spending and in an election year they will try to spend their keisters off even more and we're running deficits of 6 to 7% of gdp which is unheard of with unemployment rate below four. i mean it is just unheard of that kind of stimulus. taylor: deficits we're running. >> that's correct. the debt, whatever it is, 34 trillion. the cbo baseline runs it up to 48 trillion. which would be 116% of gdp, the budget window. that's insane. so the fed has to be very careful, right, they don't lose inflation gains from all of this spending. lydia: hard out, larry, in 10 seconds. or else we would do you. >> always my favorite show. lydia: thank you very much, "making money" with charles payne starts right now. charles: larry i heard that. last time he was on with me he told me i was his favorite show. just saying.

we all love larry. good afternoon, everyone, i'm charles payne, this is "making money." breaking route now this market is a juggernaut powered by a.i. superpower. so will it ever, ever end? i tell you what as we discuss that we will test your comic book knowledge in a second. we'll talk about the stock of the day. meanwhile jerome powell making it clear to you lawmakers is in no rush to cut nevertheless they will cut. that is at least what the street is hearing. my take of america at the crossroads. why we have to look at germany as a cautionary tale. capitalism works. we can tweak it but don't give up on it. that and much more on "making money." ♪. >> don't you know who i am? i'm the -- charles: okay. in july 1965 marvel comics introduced cain marko, "x-men"

number 12. there was a gym that gave him super human strength, cain into the juggernaut. immune to physical attacks. the helmet prevented him from mental attacks. the juggernaut was not a mutant. this is the best proxy for the market. think about this do you know who this market is? this market is the juggernaut. one of the things that it has done, this is really amazing the power of a.i. it has been immune from big-time pullbacks. the last time it had a 2% pullback has been 260 trading days, the third longest on record. oddly enough this power, you know, call it the mag-7, google searches for the mag-7 have come down dramatically. in the beginning of the year it was parabolic. everybody wanted to know what was the mag-7, what was the mag-7? still relatively hot but come down a lot. wall street they have fallen in

love with the mag-7 stocks. some are wondering maybe they love them too much. take a look at this. this is a history when wall street becomes too on must tick this on the bottom what the growth rates are. they're looking for serious growth rates, 16% growth rate right now for "the magnificent seven." the problem though when they look for big time growth rates they come up short. down 40% for the early 2000s. tech bubble, will never stop. that was an old juggernaut. down big time, down 20%. maybe, just maybe they're a little bit too bullish. by the way when they weren't looking for big-time growth the market did pretty well. here is another thing to look at here. the mag-7 is really down to ma about 2. think about this, nvidia really crushing it, that is the number one performer for the year. where is google? so far in 2024 it is 405. that's right, 404 stocks have done better. apple, 454!

tesla, 498 ouch. only beating two stocks in the entire s&p. go figure! here is some other things we have to consider folks, there are other names starting to emerge, right? a lot of guests talked about this. i talked about the semiconductors, the software, there is cybersecurity stock of the day, crowdstrikes. these are the upgrades today, today. these are the upgrades on crowdstrike. i lost track but everybody loves crowdstrike. so there are opportunities but the question is, do you chase them? i want to to bring in ria adviss ceo, lance roberts. you were looking for a little bit of off, little bit of rotation coming into 24 year but the big win really has been this sort of thing chasing momentum. should investors learn how to stop worrying and embrace and love the momentum trade? >> well, first of all let me just say this is my favorite show. charles: [laughter] >> so, having said that, yes, look, there's a time in the

markets and this is one of those markets right now where you have so much momentum behind the markets that the market keeps grinding higher. we have to love it now. that's okay. there is nothing wrong with that. but just understand that at some point that momentum will shift. there will be a turn in that momentum and we'll get a correction. again, look, in every year, every stock market year going back through history you have a five to a 10% correction, completely normal. so that will if i have investors a lot better opportunity. if you can be a little patient here, if you -- patient, you will get an opportunity to buy, to buy stocks like crowdstrike. charles: right. >> palo alto was -- charles: how? it seems to me you buy it now or you don't own it. listen, i will give you an example. so crowdstrike, i have got three services. we had it on one service. i found out my office we took profits on it. i went crazy.

we have to get back into it. i want kate for these momentum names. you have got to be watching a screen all day long to buy a nuanced dip here? >> well, true, right but think about palo alto, i was just about to say that. palo alto was on a barn-burner stretch earlier this year. it looked like an nvidia stock just going straight up. they had a slight earnings miss. the stock was down 26% in a day. there is a buying opportunity there for palo alto networks. charles: right. >> it is also in the cybersecurity space just like crowdstrike. so there's an opportunity if you're looking for one of these opportunities you missed out on you got one. charles: let me ask you about households right? right now they're overweight stock as a percentage of their total financial assets this is not even close. this was the peak. we're significantly above that i know sometimes you're a little leery how the retailer is really what the sill aren't tiff out

there? if i'm out there sitting on a bun. of money is there a better alternative than being in the stock market? >> doesn't seem to be the case right now. right now i should be in the stock market, i get that but this is sentiment, right? charles, you and i had these conversations october of last year. consumer, investor sentiment extremely negative, we said that is your buying opportunity. when everybody is very bullish as they are now, that's when you want to be a little bit more cautious, right? so everybody's in this pool right now. again doesn't mean you shouldn't be but just be aware that is more of a contrarian indicator than not. again high levels of asset allocation of retail investors tends to the be the peak of markets, not the bottoms. charles: before i let you go, jay powell confident about a soft landing although we know there will not be six rate cuts. is this a good thing? i know you talked about in december these rate cuts being good for small caps so on that notion, small caps are making a stealth rally, should you wait for the cuts to happen or should

we start nibbling there? >> small caps are totally tied to the economy. so your bet has to be the fed is going to cut rates and we're not going to have a significant slow down in the economy, right? small cap, mid-cap stocks are very sensitive to changes in economic demand. so the hope here is, that you know, for the russell 2000 to continue that rally, that, you have to have fairly strong economic growth continue. if you do, that really doesn't auger for a lot of rate cuts for the fed because of the inflationary pressure. i think this will be a real balancing act for the fed and i would be a little bit cautious. i wouldn't overweight small cap here. it is okay to be in it. i wouldn't overweight it here because of that risk. charles: i got you. lance, good stuff as always, my friend. >> appreciate it. charles: my next guest says the setup for 2024 is very bullish, right? better than expected growth, fed cuts, qt tapering. bring in bny mellon head of wealth management and equity advisory solutions, alicia

levine. great to have you in studio foremost. >> great to be here. charles: talk about gdp, you start macro. since the powell pivot gdp estimates have gone up, which is really fine, really great. it is interesting to me there are still a motion there will be rate cuts. why would they cut if the gdp growth is starting to get stronger? >> so it is a really great question. the reason the fed has a cutting stance right now, that could change if inflation stays high but right now, is because real rates, inflation is less, much less than where the fed funds rate is around the fed doesn't want to be too tight for too long. and so it needs to cut as inflation comes down so it's not squeezing out credit across the economy and that's why the fed can cut even as the economy looks better. charles: although we keep, from the very moment that they embarked on this hiking journey i think in part because transitory was sort of hanging over jay powell's head.

he has been saying listen, i will not be arthur burns. i'm not going to be arthur burns, right? so it feels like they're so reluctant to cut too soon? >> they're definitely reluctant to cut too soon. arthur burns is definitely the history that the entire fomc has studied. so they would rather wait a little bit longer now. the last cpi gave them pause. we have another cpi print next tuesday. charles: right. >> i would say that could be another pivotal moment for the markets to see where we are. if the disinflation story holds, we're likely to get a cut by the summer and some, you know, tapering of quantitative tightening, meaning for liquidity in the system and that is very bullish for the stock market. charles: in fact i brought this up, you actually tweeted it, you mentioned in october of 202 the market was going to slow. you predicted that in part because the fed was taking away a accommodation, you pointed out when the fed is a accommodative the market generally does very

well. why do you think this rally has gone on even though we started out thinking there would be six or seven rate cuts but we're down to three and the rally doesn'tmiss a beat. is this in part to the a.i. thing. >> it does in part. when rates were zero, everything rallied, you have almost 13% average annualized return since the global financial crisis. we have higher rates. if you look at the last 24 months we're 7% higher. we basically made a big u-turn in the s&p. on average we're not kind of going past our skis. there was effect by the higher rates. charles: right. >> the fed needs to cut to create liquidity in the market. the liquidity will be very bullish for the market. i'm not calling for a 6% return for this year as we showed in that chart but what we're saying is if disinflation is the key part of the story that lets the fed cut, the markets can rally from here. and, charles, let me just tell

you something else, since world war ii the market sup 75% of the time and the years the market is up double digits it followed the following year by another double-digit year 75% of time. charles: with that be in this market, be in this market, be in this market but it also necessarily doesn't have to be technology. by the way there are a lot of groups out there outperforming technology. you like industrials i know. you like health care and some parts of financials. we see the new york community bank down 42%. it is not impacting the market. i think the idea is really there is more to this market than communication services and technology? >> it is really important to be diversified. the only free lunch we have in this business we like to say is diversification. the conversation about small caps you should be somewhat expose the because if the economy turns and risk of recession is behind us then small caps can do quite well. charles: right. >> keep the s&p. it is a diversified index. you're getting health care. you're getting financials.

you're getting industrials. financials are doing well also. financials are the second largest sector of the market. >> right here. >> you be exposed to different sectors. one sector is working you feel left out. but that is the opportunity to buy other things and if you do that and go back over five years it is always such a great choice. it doesn't matter when you get in. you have to hold it and not try to trade it. charles: to your point this is technology for the year, folks, who are the financials for the year. >> who would as a result thought that. charles: who would have thought that. >> great to see you. >> you have to come back remind us more often. >> thank you. charles: jerome powell testifying today before congress. my guest is here to read between the lines because let me tell you, there was a lot going on between the lines. look at that face. we'll be right back. ♪. (vo) what does it mean to be rich?

maybe rich is less about reaching a magic number... and more about discovering magic. rich is being able to keep your loved ones close. and also send them away. rich is living life your way. and having someone who can help you get there. the key to being rich is knowing what counts.

♪ me and my friends ♪ ♪ life is better with the credit gods are on your side. rewards once available to the few are now accessible to the many. credit one bank. get cash back rewards, and live large.

when i was your age, we never had anything like this. what? wifi? wifi that works all over the house, even the basement. the basement. so i can finally throw that party... and invite shannon barnes. dream do come true. xfinity gives you reliable wifi with wall-to-wall coverage on all your devices, even when everyone is online. maybe we'll even get married one day. i wonder what i will be doing? probably still living here with mom and dad. fast reliable speeds right where you need them. that's wall-to-wall wifi on the xfinity 10g network. charles: time for a economics and jobs preview because data is mounting before friday's jobs report. on balance i think it is moving in the wrong direction. start with employment contraction in ism. service and manufacturing they

have come down a lot folks. under 50 is contraction. it is starting to really pull back very, very quickly. this is worrisome because the service part of the economy has been holding us up. you certainly wouldn't expect any weakness in labor there. of course some other things are happening. shift in zero wage share, the number of folks who are getting no pay bonus, you can't, you can see it here, the number is really, really spiking. you have to go way back to maybe 2017. people just aren't demanding or getting those raises like they had before because the pendulum has swung back in the favor of employers, the number of quits now down dramatically. this is the quits rate. it is back down. 10-year thing, way back here. what is interesting, you remember the great resignation, everyone was saying take this job and shove it. they're saying hey, job, maybe i can do the job after all. let's bring in natwest markets u.s. head, michelle gerard. the overall trend has been lower

but there have been so many wild swings, particularly with the jobs market. just so folks get understanding here. we're looking for 190, 200 tomorrow. the last one was 353. you can see the big spikes up and down. overall the trend has been down but you do get these spikes. 136 one month then 482 the next month. so what are you expecting? >> right. so we had the big spike in january as you see there. we think it will pull back a bit. we're looking for a gain of february reported on friday will be 170,000. still if you look at the trends well over 200,000 jobs being added a month. that is still a pretty healthy place of growth but we don't think numbers of february will be anywhere close to the strength we saw in january. we think that is kind of a trend as we talked about through all of the data. the february numbers will not look at strong as what we saw in january. charles: i wanted to talk about

then the inflation picture for a moment. i mentioned ism a moment ago ism service numbers is the blue line. it usually leads cpi. we had alicia levine talking about cpi next wreak maybe changing everything, at this pace though is it coming down too quickly? what do you put the odds of a soft landing right now? >> in terms of the economy i think things are cooling and you noted a bunch of employment indicators that do suggest that the labor market is not as strong as it was a year or two ago. we continue to think the economy is slowing. whether or not we could have a soft landing or we end up in a recession is up for debate. we still think we will see the economy tilt into recession. now on inflation, you know, we had actually been expecting a pretty rapid deceleration in prices. got a real curveball with much higher than expected reads for january. truthfully we should have known

better, often times at the start of the year you do see those upward surprises. we think you will see kind of an echo effect if you will for february. we're looking for the cpi, cluesedding food and energy which everyone focuses on to be up another healthy .4 of a percent. it will not be a great news. we think inflation is moving lower, once we move past the start of the year, price increase effects we'll see numbers come off. we're moving to 2%. the fed chair said himself, the fed wants more data to show for sure we're getting down to the 2% before they actually begin cutting interest rates. charles: so michelle, let me ask you about the consumer for a moment. one of my pet piece is rag peeves is aggregated data. the family had to pay the mortgage off and select what you

can after that. all of sudden non-mortgage interest payments passed mortgages. we're talking credit cards, cars, look, this is an eruption. it has never been this way before. >> right. charles: how do households deal with this? you don't have the leeway you once had, maybe? >> well this is when we saw interest rates get dawn to record low levels, mortgage rates get down to 3%, everyone rushed to lock in the low mortgage rates and helped to secure relatively low by historical standards mortgage payments. now what is happening with the fed having adjusted interest rates higher, for most people they have got a fixed-rate mortgage. the mortgage payment isn't going up but their credit card debts and many of the other loans or borrowing that they have done, the debt they have taken on are tied to rates moving up alongside the federal reserve, you know, raising interest rates. charles: right. >> so you have got a situation now, as you're saying, interest

being paid on non-mortgage debt is rising. the level of non-mortgage data is rising. consumers relying more on credit than had been the case when they had so much pandemic savings. to me this is all a problem for you know, for the consumer. i think it is a strong headwind for the consumer. it is one of the things we've been pointing to. that just in general tighter credit conditions that you know, makes us worry that, you know we will end up dipping into a recession by the end of the year. charles: it's hard to see how you avoid it always appreciate your analysis. thank you so much, michelle. >> thanks, charles, nice to see you. charles: see you too. president biden praising the cookie monster as the white house prepares to hit shrink-flation in the state of the union address tomorrow. will that do us well or do us not? a lot's at stake. president biden: i tell you who did notice. the cookie monster. he pointed out his cookies are getting smaller, paying the same

price.kill ♪. with tailored education. get an expanding library filled with new online videos, webcasts, articles, courses, and more - all crafted just for traders. and with guided learning paths stacked with content curated to fit your unique goals, you can spend less time searching and more time learning. trade brilliantly with schwab. if your business needs a new application then developers will have to write code. a lot of code. if an application needs to be modernized then you'll need time, resources... and caffeine.

if this sounds daunting then use watsonx code assistant ai designed to multiply developer productivity so you can generate code quickly. let's create a more modern foundation for business, with watsonx code assistant. ibm. let's create. [ applause ] the day you get your clearchoice dental implants changes your struggle with missing teeth forever. it changes how you eat, how you feel, and how you enjoy life. it changes your smile and how others smile at you. clearchoice network doctors have changed over 100,000 lives with dental implants, and they can change yours, too. because a clearchoice day changes every day. schedule a free consultation. investment opportunities are everywhere you turn. but at t. rowe price, we're letting curiosity light the way. asking smart questions about opportunities like advances in healthcare. and how these innovations will create a healthier world tomorrow. better questions. better outcomes.

after last month's massive solar flare added a 25th hour to the day, businesses are wondering "what should we do with it?" i'm thinking company wide power nap. [ employees snoring ] anything can change the world of work. from hr to payroll, adp designs for the next anything. - [narrator] wounded warrior project helped me find the strength to go further than i ever thought possible. - [narrator] i was able to come outta my shell and really connect with others. - [narrator] so i can feel like part of a team, part of the community again. - [narrator] it's possible to live better. - [narrator] it's possible to have a voice and to be heard. - [narrator] to feel understood. - [narrator] to find peace. - because i've experienced firsthand that anything is possible. (inspirational music)

j.p. morgan wealth management knows it's easy to get lost in investment research. get help with j.p morgan personal advisors. hey, david! ready to get started?

work with advisors who create a plan with you, and help you find the right investments. so great getting to know you, let's take a look at your new investment plan. ok, great! this should have you moving in the right direction. thanks jen. get ongoing advice; and manage your investments in the chase mobile app. charles: all right, folks, it's official, nikki haley is out. this has set up the remove but president biden he has got something else in his sights speeds donald trump. in fact he has got the heart of our system, capitalism. kelly o'grady is here with more with what's at stake. kelly. >> reporter: that's right, charles, the 2024 campaign is official. it will be a rematch. clash of personalities will dominate the headlines but the

real battle over what economic identity americans will choose in the future. many in ways the november election is capitalism on trial. yesterday the ftc and doj announced a joint task force on transaction, including seeking info on transaction including non-reportable deals. this is a big one i found, charles, that may harm patient health, worker safety, quality of care and affordability. for context i used to work in m&a. there is nothing that making the market cool there more than government scrutiny. the administration is not stopping there. shrink-flation and come good will be a centerpiece of tomorrow night's state of the union. president biden long blamed high prices on corporations. no word whether our favorite cookie monster will be a guest. i'm crossing my fingers though. there is also non-political concerns about capitalism brewing. this is actually a headline from back in 2016. goldman sachs came out with an

analyst reported a mitting it may have to fundamentally question how capitalism is working with stubbornly high margins manifesting again now, a question asked by many folks today. the fundamental question becomes, does the efficacy of capitalism exist any longer? is it doing what it is supposed to do? the premise fat margins should encourage new competitors to come into the market. that encourages pricing cycles that causes fat margins to erode. you she ups and downs, prices go up, competitors come in, then they come down but the thing is things are remaining elevate elevated right here. the runup during the pandemic, supply chains, why haven't they come down? goldman sachs has a new paper that companies don't pass cost savings to customers as quickly as they passed on cost increases. what happens in the cycles, weaker players go out of

business. it is called creative destruction. not only margins held up mightily. they're expected to move higher. look at these 2024 estimates. lower input costs check. that's a good thing. lower labor costs, check. tech strength, check, we're moving in the right direction yet somehow we're still going to have higher profit margins in 2024. so charles, will making too much money be the demise of capitalism? that is the question. charles: an age-old question but certainly front and center in this election. thank you very much, kelly. it is really amazing bah you can almost argue, not necessarily wonder how much wall street is taking this seriously. i want to bring in someone a captain of industry if you will, don luskin. don, profits have become a four-letter word again. is there any truth to this, the businesses are greedy? >> oh, for god's sakes, please,

please, i'm not a captain of industry. i'm only a sergeant of industry. high margins don't mean companies are evil. they mean capitalism is working. that is because profits and margins aren't the same thing. you can make more profits working like a dog to sell more stuff, or, you can make more profits by finding new innovative ways to do old things better. to do more with less. that improves your margins. over the last four years we've been working harder. we're working 2.6% more hours than we used to but the private sector is producing 9.2% more goods and services. just working 2.6% more hours. that is where the margins come from. that is productivity. that is capitalism. where people are free to innovate. what is greedy about that? what is wrong with that? charles: you know you're a strong defender of this. today the business roundtable came out with a updated their confidence report. it came out a little bit higher

but something the ceo said, he said he is worried about excessive regulations and a couple other things. couple years ago they admitted the purpose of the corporation to serve stakeholders, not just stockholders and profits. my question, are there any captains of industry, not sergeants but captains of industry, business groups truly fighting for capitalism anymore because the fight is on? >> well, it feels to me like, you know all the great voices for liberty and capitalism, great ones like milton friedman and ayn rand, they're no longer with us and people have not risen up to take their place. people like jamie dimon just don't cut it. we in the capital markets have all just come to accept this diagnosis that we are evil that we are greedy, that we are selfish, that we are self-centered and what people don't understand is that capitalism is the system where you are given incentives to serve other people.

the other people are your customers. if you don't serve them you don't get the business. so if you're going to stay in business, if you're going to make money if you're greedy, you want sub at being greedy you will be best servant in the world. capitalism is the system that gets people rich by serving other people. charles: wow, that is very powerful. i got 30 seconds to go, your thoughts on this market? i know you were saying coming into this market we probably continue to move up a little bit early on but at some point turn lower? >> well i'm still expecting one more recession scare. we'll get a cpi number next week. i think it is going to be a lot weaker than anybody expects. i think we'll have a little deflation in the future. i think that will scare everybody. they will think the fed has done too much, too fast. it will be all bogus. it will be another recession scare just like all the others we have. that will be a viable dip. i think it is coming right up.

charles: don, great stuff, really, really appreciate these conversations. >> thank you, sir. charles: i want to bring in luke roman. luke, you actually posted a tweet that underscores our political dysfunction driven in part by the highest income inequality in 100 years. walk us through how this happened. how has this, how have we come to this point? >> that's a pretty -- charles: i know you got less than three minutes to do it, [laughter] >> [laughter]. look, there is, there is a combination of technology, of productivity as the prior guest was highlighting. there also have been some, you know some concentration of power and pricing power which is an issue. the more you get towards monopolies -- part of the issue is, when are you really successful it feeds on itself. you can become a victim of your own success where you get so

big, so good what you're doing, allows you to get bigger, allows you cheaper access to capital. allows you to bigger, allows you to have access to capital, allows you bigger, you're one of the only guys left, and have pricing power and conveniently you're too big to fail in cases. bankruptcy without capitalism is like cathole sy without hell. i don't know if i'm allowed to say that but you apologize. there is growing frustration with the electorate in the last 15 years, you have situation of capitalism, something like in 2008, you get socialism for certain parties and capitalism for everybody else, it creates a political problem on a lag basis. we're seeing discontent lag

effects how 2008 was handled. charles: interesting when you mentioned that, sort of virtuous cycle of working your way to number one, they also become huge political donors as well, and that only adds to the pot, stirs the pot even more so my question is though does this end with revolt in the street or at the ballot box where americans say let us try european welfare state? even though it's been a terrible experiment in europe, you know, a lot of people, it sounds attractive when you have the cookie monster saying corporations are too greedy? >> yeah, the corporations being too greedy is, it plays well for the electorate but it as vast over simplification what's happening, and i think it does the electorate a disservice by not talking honestly with them about real issues which is we do have the greatest wealth inequality in 100 years in this country and ultimately when you have a combination of three

things of wealth, extreme wealth inequality, something that author peter called elite over production. everybody goes to college. everybody gets a degree. everybody is highly-educated and then when you have these rapid technological changes that drive productivity, automation and further reinforce this wealth inequality it sets up for some very dangerous political situations. so the turchi in his books we haven't seen this combination of extreme wealth inequality, extreme over production, technology since 1850s. as we know in america the 1860s were tumultuous to say the least. will be there tomorrow? but at some point trotting out cookie monster saying corporations greedy does a disservice to everyone involved for what really needs to be a balanced, serious discussion.

charles: hopefully we'll get that at some point before it is too late. luke, always great to have discussions with you even though they're too short. talk to you soon. folks dan greenhaus people are not paying attention and that is why he is coming on the show. get a pen and pad out. were you worried the wedding would be too much? nahhhh... (inner monologue) another destination wedding?? why can't they use my backyard!! with empower, we get all of our financial questions answered. so we don't have to worry. empower. what's next.

everybody wants super straight, super white teeth. they want that hollywood white smile. new sensodyne clinical white provides 2 shades whiter teeth and 24/7 sensitivity protection. i think it's a great product. it's going to help a lot of patients. it's time to feed the dogs real food in the right amount. a healthy weight can help dogs live a longer and happier life. the farmer's dog makes weight management easy with fresh food pre-portioned for your dog's needs. it's an idea whose time has come. ♪ looking good, guys! thanks! vacations are better with the credit gods are on your side. i'm coming up! rewards once available to the few are now accessible to the many.

earn points for travel with credit one bank, and live large. new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. visit indeed.com/hire and get started today. hey you, with the small business... ...whoa... you've got all kinds of bright ideas, that your customers need to know about. constant contact makes it easy.

with everything from managing your social posts, and events, to email and sms marketing. constant contact delivers all the tools you need to help your business grow. get started today at constantcontact.com constant contact. helping the small stand tall. her uncle's unhappy. i'm sensing an underlying issue. it's t-mobile. it started when we got him under a new plan. but then they unexpectedly unraveled their "price lock" guarantee. which has made him, a bit... unruly. you called yourself the "un-carrier". you sing about "price lock" on those commercials. "the price lock, the price lock..." so, if you could change the price, change the name! it's not a lock, i know a lock. so how can we undo the damage? we could all unsubscribe and switch to xfinity. their connection is unreal. and we could all un-experience this whole session. okay, that's uncalled for.

♪. charles: all right, so the juggernaut rally rolls on in part because jay powell really didn't upset a whole lot of things today in part because that's the new nature of this market. let's bring in alternative asset management lp managing director dan greenhaus. you were saying steady as she goes? >> i think there is certainly always things to worry about. charles: right. >> now is no exception. geopolitics a bubble forming, et cetera, et cetera, but when you look at the underlying economy, when you look at corporate profits, the earnings reports we just saw, i think everything feels like it's doing okay right now and we can look out another couple months and worry then. charles: it is interesting because on wall street people worry when nobody's worried right? that is like the red flag. i only worry when there is nothing to worry about. charles: that is the only red flag. everyone is too sanguine, it is too much complacency and my

problem with that, i say you know what? when these windows of opportunity are open you have to take advantage of them. >> yeah. charles: the amount of money being made right now, it's nuts if you're professional money manager or someone wants to be in the market, the notion you will wait for it to pull back, when it goes away that means there will be bad news out there, right? >> this situation, this environment, notwithstanding, historically wait for it to pull back is a losing proposition because you never know it will pull back and from what level. whatever it is might go up 10%, pull back four or 5% but you're still 5% higher than you would have been had you just bought it. for long-term financial investors, i'm not a advisor, we work for hedge fund if urn financial advisor you just buy, looking out 10, 20, $30 a share, whether you pay -- charles: the average holding time is 5.5 months. you will get pressure, a lot of financial advisors who come on

the show, their clients have a lot of say, you know what happens. >> of course. charles: they push them around. they want to be in "the magnificent seven." they want to be in these weight loss drugs. those financial advisors will not push back, to your point, which i love, march of 2009, i would say overwhelmingly, everyone says you have to wait for the next shoe to drop. even though we put in a monumental bottom you would be rich. >> i remember the market bottomed on intraday basis, at 666, s&p 500. charles: right. >> people at the time, sounds crazy, talking about the s&p falling into the 400 level. that would be where you buy. maybe it was going to, obviously not, anywhere 666, anywhere thereaboutses is a terrific buying opportunity we know now with the benefit of hind sight. charles: when someone wants to buy, is the debate you should you chase? i started the show "the magnificent seven" have become the magnificent two this year. should you chase or fish around in something because there are a

lot of stealth rallies going on. >> i don't want to give advice to anybody. charles: but yourself though. >> sure. i think investing right now there are two dominant themes which you probably have been, want to be, will be exposed. it is artificial intelligence of course and glps, the weight loss drugs, particularly eli lilly which is the big one in the united states. you mentioned the stealth rallies, when you look at hotel stocks, they're basically at highs. you look at the homebuilders, they're basically at highs. and even more stealthily, i think a third, really important narrative, getting compartively little attention in markets what is going on with industrial stocks. reshoring, electrification, greenification, you may disagree what the admin administration wants to be. the infrastructure bill and chip bill, allocating billions of dollars over multiple years and many stocks are benefiting from

those. charles: the last construction analysis missed consensus if you go through it one shining moment, manufacturing construction up 37% year-over-year. the only line on there that has significantly gone higher. i agree with you, sometimes you put politics aside if you try to make money. >> sure. charles: thank you. my next guest says the passive world is leading to some real serious problems for all of us. mike green, one of the most brilliant guys on the street will break that down along with his economic outlook next. ♪. o) what does it mean to be rich? maybe rich is less about reaching a magic number... and more about discovering magic. rich is being able to keep your loved ones close. and also send them away. rich is living life your way. and having someone who can help you get there. the key to being rich is knowing what counts.

liberty mutual customized my car insurance and i saved hundreds. that's great. i know, i've bee telling everyone. baby: liberty. oh! baby: liberty. how many people did you tell? only pay for what you need. jingle: ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ baby: ♪ liberty. ♪

okay y'all we got ten orders coming in... big orders! starting a business is never easy, but starting it eight months pregnant... that's a different story. i couldn't slow down. we were starting a business from the ground up. people were showing up left and right. and so did our business needs the chase ink card made it easy. when you go for something big like this, your kids see that. and they believe they can do the same. earn unlimited 1.5% cash back on every purchase with the chase ink business unlimited card. make more of what's yours. ♪ students... students of any age, from anywhere. students in a new kind of classroom. ♪

using our technology to power different ways of learning. ♪ harnessing ai to plant new beginnings. ♪ so when minds grow, opportunities follow. charles: my next guest is one of the deepest thinkers on the economy and market and i think this every time read his work and the title was leading lambs in a world where stocks no longer qualify as leading economic indicators and mike green is joining me. mike, i'm reading the headline, a lightbulb goes off over my

head, and i like the premise, certainly as food for thought, flush it out for us. >> sure, we switched over to passive investigating and 401(k) plans and people have to choose not to participate rather than choose to participate. we created a regulatory and retirement system that pushed people through what's called qualified default investment alternatives into things like target day funds and removed thoughtfulness around allocation of capital. now it's around do you have a job? when you do that, it switches the system away from one that's capable of predicting a recession to one that reacts to a recession. my piece from sunday is stocks move from being predicted and halfway down through the market drawdown and a recession occurred and in a passive world, that no longer true and hits the day the recession occurs basically.

when people start losing their jobs. charles: speaking of leading economic indicators and the conference board threw in the towel and recession call and their lei, which is almost everyone that came on the show that was bearish for the last few years pointed to lei. it's down st 12 months in a row5 months in a row and 2 months -- 23 months down and the conference board throws in the toll. is there a new normal? >> it's hard to predict recessions and talk about leading indicators like the yield curve and all those things have basically let people down and it's a lack of the rise of unemployment and tied to two factors and one is unemployment benefits themselves are now so un-attractive particularly after wave of inflation and people don't see a reason to do this anymore and seeing in the lyft and uber calls telling you

greater driver availability and people being forced into finding alternate forms of employment and that's a good thing in many ways and means those indicators are gone. getting back is hard. charles: back to tieing to the stock market rally and a lot of debate over won't we're in a bubble. are we? >> we're in a bubble being driven by passive and a lot of people drawing an analogy to 1999 dot com bubble and there's a lot of unprofitable story stocks and similar to 2021 and saw these companies that had no hope of profits basically running wild, and there was extraordinarily profitable companies printing money in the environment and the recession hit and we'd overproduced and unfortunately we're heading to the exact same thing with the ai bubble.

charles: what about bitcoin? where are you on bitcoin? >> i had a really interesting experience with bitcoin in the past couple of days, people have gone craze equities with their desire to effectively say this is it. this is the solution and what's going on. and what's happen asking we've introduced the etfs and making it simple to guy and navigate uncertainty of web 3.0 and led to a flood of capital and provided exit from any of those that hold bitcoin and creating conditions in which the price is being pushed upwards and people putting money to work. charles: sounds like getting to the whole root of this and and it's becoming theaters and feels like it's sort of a greater full theory on steroids to a degree. >> some of that; right. we're asking markets to do what they're not designed to do. marketsdon't exist to provide americans with retirements and we know that. they were incapable of doing it

in the 1960s and 1970s when people were offered pension plans to find benefit pension plans and turned around and asked americans to do it themselves and we've done it all the way into the passive frame work and it's very like 2.0 doing the research and charles: may not like the outcome. thank you very much. folks, in 2019 and capitalism and 52% of bad things and 50% said 41% said they exploited the weak and over the last couple of decades and going for excellence and economic self-destruction and it's remarkable and industrial power house has sort of given up as a rebuke to capitalism and the nation is the

worst mother and fathering in the world and worst manufacturing pmi in the world and the other end and grease, hungary -- greece, hungary, russia and communist countries doing better and all of its neighbors and banned nuclear power and imported liquid natural gas from anyone and it wants to blanket the entire nation and wind farms and solar farms and listen, america pay attention because we're at the same cross roads right now and stick with what propelled us in the top of the heat and not here in germany and going from the run away well fare and what's great in the first place and we can fix it and the cruise ship once said america they would defeat america without firing a shot and when you met we defeat ourselves. you don't have to. am i right, liz claman? liz: oh, no, together we're stronger, let's stand together. we don't need to defeat it. that's too . there's some defeating and some winning goin