stuart: 30? ashley, the average woman has how many pairs? stuart: i'm going to go -- i was going to go with number 2 as well, 27. stuart: you've got it all wrong. it's 37 guaranteed. the answer is 27. the us footwear market is very lucrative forecasting $91 billion by next year. 20 pairs, 30 pairs of shoes? stuart: i always wear the same ones. stuart: i like your -- lauren: i am middle-aged and married. stuart: amil marcus has something like 3000 pairs of shoes when she was first lady of the philippines, time is up for us, coast-to-coast starts now.

neil: this market a lot of investors bracing for trouble, investors preparing for the worst with talk of an imminent iran strike against israel, just added to the skittishness on the corner of wall and broad. we got you covered with a former navy seal on what could happen any moment over there that could reverberate over where. we are already in an oil crisis, filled clinton says when you fill up your car this we can, another worry for the fed. all this could be wrecking rate cut plans for everyone. austan goolsbee on that and house ways and means chief jason smith on the fallout and rising debt costs from that but first of the big worry in the big nervous worry, what iran does and when and what israel does in response and how soon. jennifer griffin at the pentagon with more. stuart: i've been covering the middle east for 30 years and i have never seen things so tense with potential for a wider war

breaking out between israel and iran which could drive the us and others into a wider middle east war. until now the us has been facing uranian proxies but in the wake of the israeli strike on april 1st in damascus, syria that killed the reigning revolutionary guard general and six other top uranian commanders responsible for arming iran's proxy groups. iran appears poised to avenge that attack with a massive show of force targeting israeli territory. in recent days the us has pre-positioned additional military assets in the region. the attacks by the houthis supported by iran continue to threaten us ships in the red sea. tensions are at an all-time high, us officials tell me they've seen movements suggesting that uranian ballistic missiles could launch any day. israeli warplanes are patrolling skies along the borders and israel's military has been put on high alert for a massive missile and drone strike that's expected to emanate from iran.

the us embassy told americans who work there not to leave tel aviv or jerusalem in the coming days and to avoid travel to the north or south of israel, the head of us central command was in israel to meet with his relapse minister of defense who praised general carella as a true friend of israel. general carella briefed his israeli defense counterpart on the latest intelligence and is still in the region. >> we are comfortable with the way we've communicated the reality of this threat and the conversations we are having with israel. will be are not going to sit back and be comfortable on is not knowing what this is going to look like. that is why we are working so intensively to make sure that israel defends itself. >> reporter: what is unusual is for iran to telegraph its response to such a degree.

usually it relies on proxies and terrorism with the us releasing what is clearly very specific intelligence through unnamed officials. you can't rule out there and will look for an offramp for a war that could draw on us forces. the supreme leader of iran, we will know more in the coming days. neil: let's go to a retired navy seal, you don't trust -- an honor to have you and thank you for your service. what is happening behind the scenes, we are working with china to convince iran not to do anything but what do you think? >> it starts at 2 a.m. am last night, positive development, you saw uranian ministries walk back to her usual rhetoric, now they are

going to conduct a disciplined response. that's positive and most likely the indications are outcomes of diplomacy for the west and the gulf cooperation council calling foul on the fact that iran was conducting military planning out of the embassy in damascus. when you do that, you put civilians at risk and israel's strike proved to be right that killed one of the commanders. neil: let me pick your brain on this but i often wonder, israel has promised to respond in kind which would be a counterstrike for a counterstrike about saying we would go into iran, targeting nuclear facility. what did you think of that? >> most americans think the next move belongs to iran and that's not true. israel is starting to believe for good reason that the us is distancing themselves from

supporting israel and israel has been upfront that if they need to confront problems by themselves they will do just that. this is what interesting. head to head iran loses against israel. they can't do anything meaningful without russia and china. russia has troops on the syrian border, supplied iran with hypersonic missiles which could degrade his relapse antimissile defense forces but the bigger application is with china naval assets in the region not only the golf but around the red sea is they can blockade the sewers canal, the strait of hormuz and impact maritain trade. adam: what do you think separately, the tense relations between prime minister benjamin netanyahu and president biden since then, taking global tall and benjamin netanyahu saying the rafah invasion is on at a time we decide, not you. that's not being shared with the united states for now.

i'm only going by media reports, maybe we are detailing and talking about this with each other. what do you make of that relationship and the pressure it puts on benjamin netanyahu? >> no doubt he is feeling pressure. benjamin netanyahu comes from the long line of military leaders, he's a warrior, biden is not. he respects the united states, he may not respect this administration and israel at the end of the day values the support of their alliance with the united states but israelis have never been scared and will not hesitate to defend their nation and their people and if that's without the us that is what netanyahu is going to do. neil: good seeing you again. talk about falling energy

markets, no one better than phil flynn, senior analyst and fox news contributor. we are in and out of $87 a barrel for oil right now, 92 for brent. that obviously for european oil, it's more prone to follow the anxiety building in europe which is more than that building here but bottom line, the price of gas, what's going on? >> this is one of the most significant threats we've seen to global oil supply probably in almost ever. at least in the last 50 years and when we look at the fact that we had a report today from the international energy agency that said war or no war, the world is headed into a supply deficit, talk of a potential attack is raising risk premium, not only oil and gas but some of the things we are seeing today is unlike anything i've

seen as far as risk aversion probably since the 80s or the 70s, we are seeing gold go to record high, people going to safe haven places like that. if you look at the overall commodity prices they are going crazy, look at things like cocoa and sugar, not that they are risk averse but when you see commodity prices explode like that it shows you people are losing confidence in currencies and government so you've got a real fear play at play here. the market will wait to see how this develops. you are seeing the market price, the art of what may or may not happen and how it will come down but make no mistake about it, the world can't afford to lose too many barrels of oil and if they do, you better buckle up because we are going to see a spike unlike anything we've seen in a long time. neil: these geopolitical development are more rare than, and maybe this spike could be temporary but it's among the

many factors the federal reserve has to consider. these black swan do violence are not common but we will get into that a little later with austan goolsbee of the chicago federal reserve, the only one who can say i understand that but you are not. let me ask you that. this gets to be a real serious factor when the fed meet again to discuss interest rates. >> it really does. the cpi report this week came in harder than expected, that's a real headache for the head, for the fed. a lot of times the fed likes to try to separate food and energy because they understand that is somewhat separated sometimes and can be impacted by short-term phenomena but what we are seeing here in a lot of these commodities look like this inflation is here to stay. when you look at the cost of aluminum or copper or silver or gold, that shows something

significant and again, i don't think we've seen this kind of valuations in these commodities for very long period of time and when we start to move from financial markets where we see participation in the stock market fall and participation in commodities get more intense the market is saying we believe this inflation is a problem and not going away anytime soon and that's a headache for the fed. neil: this is a reflection of a pretty resilient strong economy when you have commodities rising and demand rising to the point is that it is. all this talk about recession seems to be put aside for the time being. i'm not minimizing what's happening but a few countries have that kind of problem. say what you will to the united states but we are attracting is that capital. >> we really are.

it goes to another point that hit the nail on the head. commodities are up because growth is expanding not only here but china is going to rebound back but it goes back to looking at commodity investment and taking it for granted. low prices spoil people. we thought we could replace fossil fuels and not have an impact, don't have to invest in food or food processing because there's plenty to go around and that is where we get into trouble. we make false assumptions that everything is going to be hunky-dory and all of a sudden we see that it isn't and right now we are in a situation where global demand is outpacing supply and that's part of the problem. lauren: 20 some of your reputation uses hunky-dory i feel like i can relate. go ahead. >> you have to be retro,

registered professional to use that kind of term. normal people in the industry don't use it. neil: the aforementioned austan goolsbee, chicago federal reserve president, what he makes of these crosscurrents, deciding what to do as price pressures build, damned if you do, damned if you don't, what happens if you don't cut rates, what happens if you do. ♪ ♪

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neil: i have no idea what the federal reserve will do an interest rates but the market rates have 0 control though it can affect that. they continue to back up a little less so today but still in and out of 4%. it is still weighing on stocks, the dow down 360 one points, nasdaq in a deep selloff almost erasing the gains we had yesterday and keeping the averages negative on the weaker very negative on the week.

austan goolsbee, federal reserve bank president. good to see you. >> great to see you again. neil: tell me exactly what the fed does at the next meeting? >> great relief to my colleagues and as i always start, i do not speak for anyone else on the committee, i speak for myself. neil: you seen these crosscurrents. >> crosscurrents, we are in an environment like you said with crosscurrents for the second half of 2023 made good progress getting the inflation rate down from the unbearable peace that it had reached and we did that without a recession which was virtually unheard of and now at the start of this year we've gotten multiple inflation readings that are higher than where we wanted them to be. one month is no months, but 2

months you've got yourself a real months and now we've got 2 to 3 months of cbi inflation. we will see what happens on pce inflation but we must get inflation back down, the law says we need to maximize and play men, stabilize prices, and if we are not getting the job done we have to get the job done. neil: we are told personal consumption particularly the core part of that is a favorite of you and your fellow brainiacs and the fed and that might generally show, not all the time, more stable inflation environment. if it does, i'll be back to the consensus of two rate cuts, some looking at three rate cuts or is that also something else? >> i don't like tying our hands to say what we are going to do at future meetings. i don't like doing that with the upcoming meeting where we will still get a bunch of data

between now and then. much less for the use, what are you going to do in june and september and at the end of the year but that said, it's clear if you take the long arc on inflation that we were at real highs and it has come way down from those highs and if we start getting readings from the pce inflation which is the better measure and why the fed mostly looks at that. we have better readings that show us the arc of inflation coming down is true, that will make us feel a lot better about where we are in terms of monetary policy. if the pce inflation is reinflated, our job is stabilized prices and we will

stabilize the prices. neil: means you will not be cutting? >> as i say, i'm not going to commit to what the policy should be, just look at the numbers. the data caucus is the one i like to be part of. we just got to get the number. neil: was hoping to get you on a weak moment. the soft landing argument. are you confident that could still happen? >> i kept using the phrase the golden path for 2023, the mother of all the soft landings, that you could get inflation down without a big recession and in 2,023 we did that, now the question of the last mile is a little harder, you won't have as much of the beneficial supply develop and we had in 2,023 as we go into

2024 and we are still dealing with the question of how persistent is the inflation. for me, the most important number to be watching on the inflation front in the immediate term is what is happening with housing inflation which if you go into the components of core inflation, this housing, we thought by now would be coming down. looking at market rents they have come down, the inflation rate, that has not yet showed up as we thought it would in broader measures of inflation. neil: you talking housing costs in general or the real estate market itself? >> it is kind of a specific measure of housing costs which is based on what rental prices are and owner-occupied rent.

if that doesn't go down to what was pre-covid we will have a hard time getting the overall back to target so stuart: we are a long way from their. >> we are a long way from it. neil: let me get your sense then of the conundrum the fed could be an. be in. you don't want to keep this going on with rates where they are. because the flipside of that is the soft landing you hope to get doesn't materialize and you could throw the whole country into a recession. if you aired on the side of taking rather than cutting how do you weight? >> this is why every central banker in the united states and around the world goes to sleep each night with indigestion, you got to balance those things off, way to square the circle,

is you've got to follow the data and see what happens. the law gives us the dual mandate and if we are getting inflation down than the real rate, the rate we set minus the inflation rate which is a level of restrictiveness, even if you are holding the rate steady as inflation falls you are tightening the restrictiveness so if we see inflation is on this path back down to 2%, we've got to think do we want to remain as restrictive as we are right now for a long period? inflation doesn't come down, then that answers it for us. we have to get inflation down. neil: you can't control oil prices and the recent instability in the middle east is a wildcard. >> definitely a wildcard on two counts.

one is the price of oil in the price of gasoline go into the cost of living so for headline inflation, that goes in but it is a wildcard in the second dimension, when the price of oil goes up, that's a key component to the production of a bunch of things, from fedex drivers to manufacturing et cetera, so that is a negative supply shock but we've seen over the decades what happens when you get negative supply shakes leading the economy, not good. leads to more stagflation area environment. we have to keep an eye on that. neil: we are in a presidential election year, we have these fancy graphics and special music. i'm just wondering, if donald trump got back into the oval office he made clear he is no fan of jerome powell. should he replace them, what do you think? >> when i became a fed man, i

stopped talking about elections and politics and partisan battles of the old days. the fed's job is to go off of the conditions, do a mandate, there's nothing in there that says anything about politics, the stock market. neil: you saying the fed ignores all of that? >> it needs to. neil: i understand but the pressure must be unbearable because when you have many saying jerome powell wants to make this a little bit better for president biden to be reelected, not that he can orchestrate that at the fed but that is his personal preference, don't even know if that is true, but none of that enters into the equation with you guys, you don't see what's going on around you? >> like i said.

i don't speak, i won't speak for jay powell, you can have an interview with chair powell and you can ask him. neil: you specifically, austen goals we are not influence? >> i don't have any pressure. look at the minutes or the transcripts of the fomc meetings. we put those out publicly. it's not about politics. it's about the mandate, what's in the employment and the job market and what's happening to prices, that is what is going to drive our behavior. we've got to tune out the arguments about elections. that's not appropriate in the fed context. we 20 you tune out the markets. a lot of your colleagues say the same thing, don't pay attention to it but the markets are expecting rate cuts, now they are down to two, some are down to one. i don't, you don't want to get into those predictions but you

know what you say in that regard is the type of stuff that rattles them. it has been rattling the market, the perception that it's not totally looked at. they are kind of losing hope. do you just ignore that? >> i don't want them to feel bad but yes, you mostly ignore them. the thing is the law says what we are supposed to be watching and it is employment and inflation. it doesn't say anything about the stock market. when we put out economic projections where we make contingent predictions of what will be the appropriate policy. each member of the fomc is asked individually, what do you think? the median of those at the last

go around was three cuts. if you remember, in december when we put it out, the median of the fomc says rate cuts and the market immediately said that must be seven cuts. neil: can't ignore fat. you can't ignore that. you can't ignore that. you just don't. if it is down a few hundred points, that is all moist to you? >> it is mostly noise. the thing to remember is financial conditions do affect the economy, they are like monetary policy but only with him long lag. what happens this week or next week is noise. what you are looking for is a longer lived sector. neil: have a safe weekend. let me know how the next meeting goes. awesome goolsbee, federal reserve chairman in chicago. we will see what happens on that front.

also got higher interest rates, the chairman of the house ways and means committee, jason smith after this. ♪ ♪ maybe rich is less about reaching a magic number... and more about discovering magic. rich is being able to keep your loved ones close. and also send them away. rich is living life your way. and having someone who can help you get there. the key to being rich is knowing what counts. nice to meet ya. my name is david. i've been a pharmacist for 44 years.

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$7.4 billion, changes to current plans, this affects student loan forgiveness for 227,000 people. so far the president has included $453 million, the cost to taxpayers, 4.3 million people, forgiveness will extend them to 30 million americans, 7 states and announced that they would sue. >> loans must be repaid, supreme court said he didn't have authority the first time, we intend to prove he is trying to do it again. >> reporter: critics say this is election year politics to buy votes, critics say it will boost inflation which the president misled americans about in the rose garden this week. >> the president said when he came into office inflation was skyrocketing, 1.4% in

january 2021, under 2%. as the president -- >> when the president took office there was a pandemic closing down businesses, closing down schools, it was drastically disrupting the supply-chain. >> the supply chain measure breakdown in november at that time, is the president being honest about inflation? >> the president said what he saw when he took office. the pandemic was happening, disrupted the supply-chain. >> spending is not slowing down, student loan forgiveness is part of that spending. neil: one trillion dollars more in the last 6 months. we go to jason smith, the chairman of the house ways and means committee. we were hearing about this extra spending to forgive student loan debt to talk about

$1 trillion over the last 6 months, but first we 6 months of this fiscal year and on comes austen goolsbee saying that tough value. >> the wrong decision up 19. 4% since president biden took the oath of office. like the reporter was talking about in the prior segment inflation was 1.4%, 11 consecutive months before president biden took office, what led to the skyrocketing inflation was the $10 trillion of new spending in government that president biden passed in his first two years in office. neil: you talk how anemic it was in the trump administration when covid was going on. i am not putting that on what

happened, i am saying you have a spike in activity and prices after that and the spending to your point added to that. i'm wondering what happened, the federal reserve is the only game in town to get under control, and it is coming back. what happens to the economy? >> i am quite concerned with the economy, the highest in 23 years, having a drastic impact on working families and small businesses. there is more than $1 trillion worth of credit card debt. the most ever in the history of the united states. that is not a good recipe for good economy. the president's plan is to increase taxes.

his budget suggested increasing $7 trillion worth of taxes. neil: on other news, obviously donald trump isn't too keen on that. is there a rumble in your ranks, a sharp division among republicans, a very big where issue, is it for you? >> the sharp division on what item? neil: the security and all of that, to make sure it can be funded but are you worried but because donald trump made clear he doesn't want you to do that that it is not going to happen? >> donald trump is the leader of the republican party. republicans are independent thinkers, different ways that we look at it. what donald trump says, he is the leader.

neil: the house ways and means committee, i understand later but you think that's a mistake. and think that's the right approach with all the territories. >> when you are looking at the discussion, jim jordan has the authorizing committee of judiciary over pfizer and chairman turner over the intelligence committee, those two members who are committee chairman and leaders in the republican party are divided and they have good arguments on each side. we can have this debate and decide we are going with the jim jordan side or the like turner side. neil: you are no slouch. how would you break the tie your self?

>> i voted to make sure on many us citizen, that amendment fell 212 to 212 in the center. neil: let me get your take on this meeting with mike johnson, some say he is not long for this job. how do you feel about it? >> mike johnson is a very good man working hard, he has to navigate through for a razor thin majority and doing in doing the best job he can. he has great relationships with the members had a great relationship with the former president. i think he is the right leader at the right time. neil: the push to push him out. >> i would never forecast

anything, this congress has been expect the unexpected. i never thought kevin mccarthy would be forced out. i didn't think 8 republicans would join with every democrat to remove a republican sitting speaker. neil: thank you very much. perhaps the extension of the selloff was based on what austen goolsbee was telling us but making it clear we are not out of the woods yet with market gyrations, even though he's aware of it. you can't be betting the way we were betting on multiple rate cuts. that was made very clear. the impact of that after this. ..

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>> we must get inflation back down to target. the law says we need to maximize employment and stabilize prices, that's the dual mandate. if we are not getting the job done, we have to get the job done. neil: that was one of many comments saying we aren't getting the job done.

given a 500 point slide in the dow, one hundred 50 better than than was before that chat, markets confirm. peter tuchman joins us, what do you make of what he is saying, we are not there yet. personal consumption is re-inflating, the federal stabilize prices. >> market is not enjoying the with got to sent among the ranks. all of that stuff is very clear jay powell made clear we have three cuts coming, 75 basis points. we have had a number of economic data come out that are disappointing. we've come down from 8% to 3%. i love the analogy like if you want to lose 35 pounds and go on a diet and change your eating habits will probably

drop in the first month. the last five pounds are virtually impossible. i don't think people should be so impatient. we are down to 3, we are down 3.1. the fact the market is getting anxiety here. have a global situation happening with a spike in the yield curve relative to oil prices going higher and what happening in the middle east and the delivery problems going on there. there are a lot of moving parts. 500 points in the market, that wonderful first quarter we've seen according to 2019. we need to be a little bit patient here. we heard from jay powell, basically two and then one and some are saying none.

markets don't like uncertainty and that is what we are seeing in the indices. it is their it is there reflection of uncertainty. neil: leave it to a thin guy to make diet analogies but i will let them go. let me get your take on what he is saying and what austen goolsbee is saying good, the latest economic numbers and instability around the globe and the run up in oil prices put them on pause. >> peter nailed one thing correctly, there were 25 >>s by central bakers all contradicting each other. my biggest worry is they think they are the economy, the central bankers, that they can move 1/4 point and affect inflation.

the economy is $25 trillion, 150 million of us go to work trying to do better for our sons and our families. that drives the bus and i think they think too much and one thing that has not been mentioned and i think this is huge and that is the size of government in the sevens in 5 years and all of it is debt. that is inflationary and if that isn't worrisome, worrisome for interest rates going forward to accommodate options coming down the spike to cover all that money. i don't know what is so keeping fingers crossed the lot of debt won't hurt us but you get $50 trillion, that they will take that. neil: appreciate you taking time for 460 points. on growing fears that rate cuts

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neil: forgive anyone not focusing on what the markets are doing or interest rates, they are more interested in getting food. the country is collapsing in total disarray. the former nfl great, the goya foods ceo has come together, good to have both of you. your take on what you are up to, what are you trying to do? >> reporter: i know jack from the policy institute and he is my hero. delivering the food to the kids and saving kids, jack has saved us so many children in haiti. children across the world are under attack. this man is incredible.

giving is easy but being on the ground and being in this war zone is so heroic. neil: is a war zone so it is extra dicey. >> it really is. we've had horrific stories. the donation helped us to 26 orphans we recently evacuated. 120 orphans, these orphans are in war zones, 12 orphans we are trying to move, three of them got murdered yesterday and this is real, they are targeting, these games are vicious, you can only imagine not having access to any stores, roads being blocked, these kids are starving to death. donations like this are huge.

i didn't even get the words out and he said yes and helped us ship thousands of pounds of food. we look forward to doing more with bob. he is an american hero and he says it to me for companies to put their money where their mouth is. it means so much. neil: you want to do this but you want to make sure it gets to the right people. >> we delivered during the earthquake years ago. we have a facility in the dominican republic, a truck that got hijacked. it is chaotic. something like the united states is going to look if we don't elect a good president. neil: we are watching closely. thank you as always. such good stuff. inspiring. that will do it here. taylor riggs and "the big money show