melinda: hello and a very warm welcome to quadriga. in a matter of hours, donald trump will be inaugurated. many in europe are worried that the transatlantic partnership stands before challenges. will fallinced the eu apart after brexit. he is demanding punitive duties on german cars. nightmarea potential

for europe? that is what we want to talk about. we have invited three guests. it is a pleasure to welcome. ulrike herrmann. is a business editor. she believes trump might be an opportunity for europe, by eu tonight. it is great to have erik kirschbaum back on the show. he thinks trump is a loose cannon. and it is great to welcome tom goeller. he is a freelance journalist focused on u.s. and security affairs. in his opinion, germany and other european countries behave like scroungers when it comes to nato membership. donald trump gave his first big interview to a major german

newspaper this week and also spoke to "the times" of london." questioned every orthodoxy on which the transatlantic union is based. the alliance with germany, to the future of nato. i would like to start off by asking you to give me your sense of your reaction. you said, donald trump is a loose cannon. statementssee the as a guideline for what he is likely to do in office? erik: it can be pretty scary. he has not been acting pretty presidential. there was the hope he would become more presidentialal and reach out to the other side, but he h hasn't. maybe that will change. one thing i thought was optimistic, he said nato is very important.

everybody jumped to the part where he said, nato is obsolete but he also said it is important. he says a lot of things. s heou grab those things -- let's see what happened. melinda: what was your reaction as we approach this inauguration? this interview had so many factual mistakes. obvbvious that trump really doesn't know what he is talking about that, i think is a problem, for president. >> that is not new. ulrike: that is true. other presidents gave the impression they want to learn.

trump is the opposite. he claims to know everything. how to change the world. how to be the most wonderful to be -- b claims to be the most wonderful businessman. but he doesn't give the impression he wants to learn. melinda: many europeans who read this interview were alarmed. where you? not necessarily because he repeated what he had said prior in the election campaign. nato is obsolete, this is not the first time he has said that. what i found interesting, it was the first significant interview he has given and that was to european newspapers. i read out t of that, he cares r europe. europe is important to him. havewise, he would not given this interview. saying, look, europeans, i have to tell you something t.

felt hihismany people atattitude toward europe sounded pretty indifferent. you might refer to his remarks on both germany and the eu as damning with freight praise -- faint praise. >> if you look at the u k, european union, it is germany. basically a vehicle for germany. that is why i think the u.k. was marketing out. i believe others will leave. ould you've leave he will take a divide and conquer approach? will that make the u.s. great again? aik: he is always businessman. there is some truth to what he is saying. germany does profit from the eu. germany benefits from the eu.

the euro is some that helps germany and its exports. he is saying something provocative, but there are some truth to what he is saying. melinda: you are saying this could prompt european countries to pull together. really? lrike: that is an instance where e trump misrepresented reality. it is true, the british did not realize that. they really lose out economically, which will result in other countries wanting to leave the eu this shows trump does not know anything about europe. think europeou would be better with a divided u.s., economically? ulrike: one thing is true about the u.s.

if there is a country that does not really take part in globalization, it is the u.s. so foreign country trade does not matter a lot. that is a misrepresentation of trump. he always tries to tell the americans everything would that would be better without trade. it is not as important for the u.s., anyway. 11% of gdp. in the long run, trump will not change anything because many companies rely on exporting to europe. tell me this. doesn't the kind of talk we heard there, that we saw in that quote, eu bashing in germany bashing, doesn't that simply feed resentment of right-wing political groups across europe?

they are very much eu skeptical if not opposed to the eu. we have an important election year here. this feeds into nationalist right-wiwing populi. couple ofeds a things. the right-wingers here, for example, the afd in germanyny or netherlands. backed by that kind of remarks from donald trump. without saying he is the same caliber. movementscompare both , so to speak. anti-americanism, which is more from the left in europe. he is just a voice, he voices of

vast majority in the united states. they can be the success of the european union and euro. they are not happy. the're america first is dollar first. money like the dollar. he feeds a couple of attitudes or ideas or opinions. i think he is not always aware of that. implies donald trump is more moderate than european right-wing populists. ulrike: i wouldn't be too sure. is feed racism in the unit since. -- in the united states.

racism will increase, and that is what blacks and hispanics expect. increased under obama. thate: i would not accept statement. tom: you may not like it but it is a fact. ulrike: now you have a president that endorses racism. that is the change. melinda: i want to cut that conversation and try to move us particular areas people are concerned about. not only on the basis of the interview published but also other statements donald trump has made. security on the one hand, trade on the other. let's start out with a question ofof security. one issue above all, could a erump presidency undermin

the foundations of the postwar order? the principle of tererritorial sovereignty, namely due to the russian incursion into the ukrainine? let's talk about that and start out by saying, -- seen this report about the peoplple trump has nominated to key positions involving security. trumpmpet myer -- admires vladimir putin. but there have been sharp words for moscow from the trump team. >> this was an aggressive action taken by the senior leadership inside of russia. >> russia today poses a danger. trump has characterized nato as obsolete. he says the alliance has problems and not done enough to fight terrorism. his designated secretary of defense has said -- >> nato from my perspective,

having served once as a supreme allied commander, is the most successful military alliance in modern world history. maybe ever. >> whose perspective will win out? trump's, or his appointees? melinda: what you say to that who was likely to win out when it comes t to relations with regegard to russisia? we havave somewhat moderate statements by the futuress victory of defense if in fact he is confirmed. also, the future secretary of state can read on the other hand, some very warm demons from trump. itk: it is confusing to read is typical trump. the tranansition has been filled with contradictory hearings. encouraging are the senate hearings that show nominees have different opinions. i think that is a good sign. he is open for

discussions. for most americans, it is see the way trump has been so positive about putin. for republicans, it has been alarming. that is going to lead to tension in the congress. in theknow, congressman u.s. are morore independent. trump is going to be running into problems with republican congressman unhappy with the friendndship he has developed wh putin. congress has decided to hohold hearings on the russian hacking issue. it could turn up things that might be uncomfortable for donald trump. people in washington who are observers of the political process say they expect donald trump to lead essentially like a whoof a big corporation sets the broader lines of strategy but leaves details to his ministers.

on the other hand, his cabinet appointees are competing centers of power. pro-russian and others who are not. how do you expect that to play out? most important problem will be that no one on this cabinet has any experience with governing. they are all billionaires coming from outside. really, i can get will be curious to see how they try to govern a superpower without having any political experience. think they a are stars. they think they are billionaires because of their intelligence, not just because they happen to be lucky. this is going to be an interesting family grouping in a way. i can see them fighting over power and influence and fame, in a way. melinda: aren't divisions appointeesinet

likely to encourage divisions in europe? we have some eastern european countries worried about being the victims of russssian expapansion. we have others who would very much like to do a deal with russia. what would you expect all of this to set in motion? tom: actually, i think the germans in particular should be grateful that donald trump is going to end this terrible tension. that the obama administratioion has bubuilt up with putin. guts, even, to send in 4000 troops to poland shows he never was able to cope with putin. we should be grateful there is one who at least says i want a new approach. this is a sign of hope. leftially for the german and liberal sisides.

we should play down the tension with putin. can stir thene who course for the better. melinda: planed on the tension or appeasement? appeasementnds like to me. need of countries want support. they have been baking support. it is a small token show solidarity to send 4000 troops. melinda: will he pull them out? erik: could be. it is still early days. we will see. briefly hereus from the chancellor. theappears to have gotten trump message that nato and europe need to do a great deal more if they want to keep the transatlantic alliance healthy. let's hear what she had to say.

>> let's not fool ourselves. from the point of view of our traditional partner, i am thinking here of transatlantic relations, there is no life of" operation. we must continually work for a. that is why i am convinced europe and the european union will have to take on more responsibility. melinda: your opening statement professed the hope we might actually see europeans pull together a great deal more, take more initiative. do you see real signs of that? those are some fine words from the chancellor. will we see action? everyone is waiting to see what happens. trump has not been president and he has been saying contradictory

things so no one really knows what he is up to. europeans starthe to prepare themselves for being more united, one thing is if putin tries to divide and conquer, the europeans must oppose it. they didn't have to do that in the past but now they will have to discuss it before discussing -- addressing the u.s.. everyone had their foreign ministers traveling to washington because there is no harm done. travels to anyone washington, he will be briefed by the other countries what he is supposed to stay with the style of politics will change and perhaps the substance. melinda: donald trump's

approach, not only on nato, is transactional. he likes to do deals. he expects thahat nato is essesentially a deal. bee same approach appears to guarding him in the area of trade. i would like to move on to that briefly. we don't have a lot of time left. he said in that interview monday, you will find a mercedes in front of actively every luxury home in the u.s. but you do not find a chevrolet in front of such homes in germany. he threaeatened punitive dutiesf 35% on imported cars in europe. happen to dna german region with a lot of auto suppliers -- to be in a german region with a lot of other suppliers. they were alarmed. do we have a trade war coming? shows trump does not know what he is talking about. is thatdoesn't want

chevrolets in germany compete with opel. chevrolets are not being sold -- you try to minimize chevrolets driving around germany. s talking about something that is completely untrue. wanted to have tariffs of 35%, he would of course hurt american companies as well. you can't imagine him having 35% of tariffs and europe not reacting. he would have a trade war and no one would be gaining. rhetoric, carrier air conditioners in indiana and a ford light in mexico, he is trying to use it against europe but he will be shooting himself in the pointnt. hehe does not have the power to terrorists.%

the congress will have to go along. it is hard to imagine a republican congress that will go along with a protectionist president. there will be some adjustments to north american free trade pact, but it will not be the end of open trade. melinda: are you quite sure? the people who supported trump were those hurt by globalization, many of them that support right-wing parties in europe. the era of globalization as we knew it is dead. tom: yes. i agree, that era is dead. let me come back to this remark of donald trump. i agree, he cannot do what he wants to do, it is impossible. he is not mr. almighty. but he obviously delivers to those who elected him, voted for him to read workers, ordinary people who want to hear the end

of globalization. jobs that are created for us. already.ds, who worked ford stays in the u.s. and does so expand to mexico and forth. i think it is more of a message more of aestic, domestic than a world message. afraid, theeel germans are the expert champions in the world. if they are not able to bypass things like that -- steepa: 35%, that is a duty. tom: it will not happen the way he wants. it is more message or at home that abroad. however, the germans will be able to to fix that. i am sure. melinda: both gentlemen have said trump's words, for example

to forward or the air-conditioning manufacturer carrier, actually produced action. critics in the usa, nonsense. because't go to mexico the gas price is too low. it wasn't worth building the cars. has what he has done made a difference? whatever influence he had, one thing you have to say, 5000 jobs in the u.s. is nothing. forgetting, itp is the economy with 320 million people. every day, 40,000 people lose change jobs. 5000 jobs is nothing. the problem is in the u.s., the media do not report that. huge cover story about for building a factory in the u.s. or not moving the factory. that is just plain crazy.

did report the -- would you say the media do not report the other side of trump.s i think it is out there but will people be able to f fid it in the flow of information? i have read it as well in the media. ulrike: the coverage is 5000 jobs, thanks to trump. at therump is an expert simple fight message. bmw is a big manufacturer in the united states. melinda: one moment left in the show and i would like to get all of you to answer our title question. europe, trumpng

could be a nightmare. nightmare? , because he doesn't know anything. tom: he will not be a nightmare. he will help europe to create a greater europe. nightmare,uld be a but give him 100 days to see what happens when she becomes more president. melinda: thanks all of you for being with us and all of you out there for tuning in.

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announcer: this is a production of china central television america. mike: whwhat makeses a visionan? for some, it's the passion for innovation. for others, it's seeing opportunities to make a difference when others have given up. this week on "full frame," conversations with visionaries who are using their global fame to make an impact. i'm mike walter coming to o you from the heart of new york city's vibrant timemes square. let's take it "full frame."