sami: the u.s secretary of state has been visiting niger, promising support and aid. what does it mean for the rivalry between world powers, and where does it leave the challenges facing the sahar region? this is "inside story." ♪ hello, and welcome to the show. i'm sami zeidan. anthony blinken has become the first sitting u.s secretary of state to visit nisha. -- to visit niger.

the trip, part of president joe biden's pledge to engage more with the african continent. washington sees niger as its closest ally in a region that's facing widespread political instability and violence. its neighbors, mali and burkina faso, have had several military coups in the past two years. those states have also asked french troops to leave their territory, while u.s personnel remain in niger. meanwhile, russia, through its wagner group mercenaries, and china have increased their influence in the region. anthony blinken says washington wants to help niger. >> today, i announced nearly $150 million in new humanitarian assistance to help meet needs in western central africa and the sahel, created by regional instability. that assistance will support the provision of shelter, essential health care, emergency food, safe drinking water, sanitation, hygiene services, and we'll also support vulnerable refugees and asylum seekers evacuated to niger.

and i have to say, the generosity of niger, of its people to so many refugees, so many displaced persons is remarkable. we're committed to continuing to invest in the resilience of democracies to a wide range of threats and challenges from corruption to disinformation, and we continue to support a free and independent press, as we have done in niger for decades. >> -- sami: people in niger face many challenges, including poverty, security, and the effects of climate change. most of the west african nation is in the sahara desert, which is being hit hard by severe weather systems. 4.3 million people require human humanitarian assistance. a fifth of a population of 26 million don't have enough to eat. niger's struggling economy depends heavily on agriculture, which accounts for 40% of gdp, and niger has faced the tax by armed groups, which have displaced hundreds of thousands

of people. ♪ let's bring in our guests into the show now. in niamey, we have mamane sani, a journalist and analyst in washington, d.c., daniel eizenga, research fellow at the africa center for strategic studies at the national defense university, and in abuja, kabir adamu, managing director at beacon consulting, an enterprise security risk management and intelligence solutions provider in nigeria and the sahel region. a warm welcome to you all. if i could start with kabir, what do you think prompted this visit by the u.s secretary of state? >> thank you very much, and nice to to be here. the diplomatic relationship between niger and the united states has been one that it has been quite stable. and given the statement by secretary blinken, he emphasized

the peaceful transition that that took place in niger in 2001. now, the significance of that peaceful transition can only be understood if one looks at the neighboring states to niger, places like mali, chad, as an example, and then more recently burkina faso, as well as guinea, where the same circumstances but sadly the outcome has dealt huge blows to democratic tenets within those countries. so to that extent, niger is seen as a country that has managed its socio-economic and political challenges. sami: kabir, you're referring to the coups in places like mal and -- like mali and so on? >> exactly, as well as the instability that the socio-economic conditions in those locations have given rise to. so apart from the instability within the governments of those states, the fact that the people

feel the presence of government is not at the good as it should be. the case of niger, we haven't seen that level of the harmony. and i would say grievance is reaching an extent where it has threatened the stability of the governance. second point is of course the fact that niger has provided "safe haven" for different security challenges that have affected residents of the sahel. so from nigeria, where as an example in northern nigeria, you have a waging security challenge, a terrorism challenge, and that has made several people to move from there to now find refuge in niger, to mali and to burkina faso. all of that is having an impact on nigerians. so these are the kind of things that may have prompted it. sami: while the u.s agenda for

the secretary of state's visit includes aid, surely the u.s. interests go beyond simply coming to the area, because there's a country that needs help with security, needs help with dealing with some of the issues that kabir mentioned, of displacement of people. right? the u.s. has economic interests and security and military interests in this area, too, that it's seeking by this visit . -- by this visit. >> related to this visit by antony blinken, i think such visit has a double significance in which you know that america, the u.s. is playing a cure all, in terms of defense and the security issues in the country . -- in the country.

niger now has an opportunity. because it's the first time that niger receives a very important personality from america and in this particular time. in this way, it is i think an opportunity for niger to discuss more in order to overcome about what is going on, fighting terrorism, fighting the budgetary, kidnapping, etc. etc. sami: let me bring in daniel now. is there an element of competition between world powers going on here as well? when you look at the backdrop of what's happened in the last few months and years, france withdrawing from mali, ending operations and burkina faso -- in burkina faso, increasing military involvement by russia's wagner group in mali, and accusations at the same at least of that in burkina faso. is the u.s. trying to play a bit

of catch up here? >> thank you for the question and for the invitation today to speak with you. i think that it's a little too superficial to frame this as simply an effort to combat increasing chinese or russian influence. the u.s. has been consistently engaged in africa and in the sahel in niger for decades, and it remains committed to building strategic partnerships on the continent, and i think niger has really emerged as a very strong partner. that's particularly the case in terms of counterterrorism. as we've heard from the other panelists already, the security situation in the sahel has really deteriorated almost exponentially around niger, something like 40% of all violent activity for militant islamist groups in the entire continent of africa is taking place in the sahel, and that's largely been driven by the political instability and misgovernance that has been occurring in mali and burkina faso, as we've already heard.

and so, i think that secretary blinken's visit to niger is a signal. it's saying that, yes, there's there's been some pushback in places like mali and in burkina faso to western intervention, but the united states is here to strengthen this partnership. it remains an ally and recognizes that, in niger, there continues to be a trajectory toward democratization. you know, despite these security pressures, despite the humanitarian challenges, despite the socioeconomic challenges that niger faces, it has been able to maintain constitutional order, it's been able to promote citizen engagement in the political realm and civilian rule, it's been able to professionalize its military in the context of this ongoing counter-insurgency campaign. and so, i think that the united states is there to show that its foreign policy is a continued commitment to forming

partnerships, strengthening partnerships with african countries, where it sees its interests and values are aligned, and i think that that's something that russia and china haven't been able to offer as consistently as the united states. and in fact, if you were to look at the involvement of the russian wagner group, this mercenary paramilitary unit in mali, it's quite clear that since the wagner group has been engaged in mali, that the situation has gotten significantly worse. we estimate at the africa center for strategic studies that four out of every five people killed by the wagner group are actually malian civilians. sami: we would hear from some of those countries they would point the finger back at the u.s.. just look at the outcome of the u.s military involvements in

some parts of the world. iraq of course, an invasion not backed by in the u.n security council resolutions. how it ended in afghanistan, that the u.s military rule sometimes doesn't end in an improvement of the security or democratic institution situation in a country either. >> sure, i think that it's fair to try and pose it like that. i think though that you're talking about apples and oranges. the united states isn't intervening in the same kind of capacity in the sahel. in fact, it's there as a supporting partner to the nigerian government. and it's in that role that it's trying to enforce or reinforce the counter-insurgency efforts of niger. you know, political will and legitimate government are key ingredients to any effective counter-insurgency campaign, and that's why i think the nigerian government has been identified as such a crucial partner in the counterterrorism operations that are taking place in the sahel. i think that obviously there are still some ingredients missing. there's been a struggle to sustain a security presence in

areas that have been retaken from militant islamist groups holding that territory and beginning to grow legitimate government in those areas, providing services to civilians that are facing this threat has been a major challenge, and i think that's exactly what secretary blinken is there to try and figure out strategically with the nigerian government, how can the united states be a partner in that process in such a way that's effective? sami: all right, let me bring kabir back into the discussion and ask this, when we're talking now about the security challenges facing niger, they're multi, aren't they, i mean, on the one hand, there's the armed struggle going on with armed groups, there's also the transition to democracy after the history of military rule, right, how key is u.s support and the u.s role for those security challenges? >> i think quite quite critical.

what we've seen already is a massive u.s military support. so there are several military bases. and then there is also a drone base that is run by the u.s. all in niger, and the provision of military equipment for the gathering of intelligence as well as for operational purposes has been one of the key elements. and i think probably one of the best that has made niger more disposed to these kind of strategic relationship it has with the u.s. sami: let me jump in, and despite that, we've seen violence increase in niger in 2022, is the increasing militarization of the approach towards dealing with some of these armed groups, is it really working? >> so, we need to approach this

from two angles. the internal grievances, the internal extremism, and terrorism within niger, and then the external one. if you look at the land size of niger, and its very massive border, and the fact that those borders are being shared with countries like libya, as an example, and then the other countries like guinea and mali, where we have the types of security challenges we've discussed earlier, so the type of border security management that is required sadly is one that is not in existence at the moment. and that type of strategic conversation is not being had. and this is why some of the criticisms that have been leveled against both the u.s. as well as the nigerian government is that the relationship is not one, but it's balanced. the u.s. has a strategic interest, but the nigerian strategic interest has not been

projected. and to that extent, a lot of questions have been matched over the current status of the g5 initiative as well as niger's involvement in the multinational has impoverished niger. sadly, the circumstances in libya that i have also generated and created a security challenge for the entire region have not been addressed to the extent that it would reduce it. sami: absolutely. supporters of russia and china are quite are often quite quick to point out that that comes as the result of of western intervention there as they see that libya scenario. i saw daniel put his hand up a moment ago, so i'm going to give you a chance to come back in on what kabir was saying. >> yes, i'd just like to jump in on this point that the situation in niger has deteriorated as you said, and it's true that the situation in 2022 in niger has deteriorated it.

-- has deteriorated. by our analysis at the africa center for strategic studies, there's been a 43% increase in violent events attributed to militant islamist groups. but on the other hand, fatalities were cut in half, and so the lethality of those events has diminished. and at the same time, if you look at the region as a whole, it's roughly 90% of all violent events by militant islamist groups taking place in burkina faso and mali. so the proportion of violence that's happening in niger is diminishing. i wanted to make these points because the nigerian government is doing a very good job despite cascading threats and increasing pressure on its security forces. and so, i think it's a bit unfair to frame it as all of these efforts are failing, you know? what we are unable to measure is how bad the situation would be in niger if there were not the counter-insurgency efforts

taking place. and what we can look at hypothetically is if the situation were to be increasingly militarized, say for example like the way the mali and junta has tried to pursue its 2021 and 2022 counter-insurgency with the wagner-backed mercenaries, then you can see that actually violence would get significantly worse. and here's where i think the nigerian government has really stood out -- is a standout, it's tried to work with a population-centric approach to its counter-insurgency campaign, building legitimacy with its government, providing greater services to the communities that are faced under threat and following up with some of these less militarized approaches. and after doing that, it can start to build support within the local communities and start to cut off revenue flows from militant islamist groups. you know, this is a a step-by-step strategy for how to counter militants groups, and on average, around the world, in a counterinsurgency, it takes roughly six years for effective legitimate governments to be

successful in a counter-insurgency campaign. so i think we have to keep the sort of long-term perspective here in view, and the nigerian government really has stepped up to that challenge. unfortunately, it can't control what the neighboring governments do, particularly when you have militaries that step in and topple their civilian governments. and so, you've got burkina faso and mali that are destabilizing the situation for the larger region. sami: kabir, if i could ask this question, the country faces serious challenges as well when it comes to climate change, right, and 40% of the country's gdp comes from agriculture. how much real attention and focus are authorities even able to give the challenge of climate change? >> so thirdly, this is these are -- these are some of the criticisms that have been leveled against

the visit by anthony blinken. and then of course in the bilateral relationship between niger and the u.s. climate change. most african countries sadly are the receiving end of climate change, including niger. and in such engagements, one would have thought this is one of the elements that would be discussed, and perhaps the need to enhance the capacity of these countries to manage the consequences of climate change. unfortunately, not much has been done in that regard, and this is a function of first governance as well as the capacity of the institutions in government to appreciate the effect and the consequences of climate change and how that is tied into several challenges, including the security challenge that we are discussing as well as the economic challenge we've just talked about briefly.

if that is not brought to the forefront of conversations and then sadly the kind of attention that it would get would be where it is at the moment, and that means there is no immediate hope for innovation, for introducing climate change adaptation and measures, and so this is another lost opportunity. sami: all right, let's bring daniel in again. the u.s. has vital interests in this area beyond simply security, right? >> yes, of course. as i noted, the united states has been a long time partner in niger, and security right now is the most pressing concern. that's what we're hearing from my colleagues today, security is the most pressing challenge in this year. -- in niger. it affects all of these other challenges that we're raising, too.

you can point to to climate change as it affects local communities, as it affects the dynamics between pastoralists and farmers, it contributes to growing tensions in inter-communal violence, and all of this can spill over into a security challenge. the same is true for economics. if we're looking at the socioeconomic conditions in this -- in niger, they're very challenging as well. sami: the allegation is or the criticism is that the u.s. -- niger first came shall we say to the attention of the u.s. public some 20 years ago with allegations about uranium, how much of a focus is there on vital economic interests for the u.s. from this region in terms of energy, in terms of vital resources? >> you know, i'm not particularly aware of any american companies involved in the uranium sector in niger. it is a major export of the country surely.

there are other sectors that have been developing in terms of petroleum. west africa in general has significant gold deposits. and so, certainly there are economic interests. what we're seeing though from the american side is a genuine interest and partnership, and this comes directly out of the african leaders summit and what the demand signals were from african governments towards american foreign policy. they wanted increased engagement at high levels like that of secretary of state blinken. and so, you know, i can't speak what the specific quantifiable interests are in niger for the united states, but i can speak to the fact that a stable west

africa is writ large in the economic interests of the united states. and i think that niger has been identified as a crucial partner for stabilizing the region -- particularly at this moment, something of a critical juncture for west africa in its fight against militant islamist and security. this is bleeding into increased criminality. it's bleeding into increased intercommunal conflict across the region, and we're starting to see some of west african coastal countries be affected by this violence. and so, identifying niger as a partner that's engaged in a stabilizing process, a democratization process, and effective counter-insurgency campaigns, despite the enormous challenges that its government is facing i think is exactly what the united states is aiming to do with its foreign policy. sami: all right. let me bring khabir in for a final one. it's got a growing population, kabir, how talking about

stabilization is the government in a race against time to try and meet the needs of a growing and young population, in order to provide that kind of stability that it seeks, ? -- that it seeks? >> definitely, and certainly that is a common trend that that runs across most countries in the sahel, of course, including, niger, and i think this is one of the things that civil society organizations wished had been at the forefront of the conversation then between the two countries under the auspicious of the african groudon opportunity act. what kind of support measures would be put in place for niger and its budget and population to benefit from opportunities that are aboard. especially providing the youth

pool that sadly would be recruited by some of the groups that are behind the security challenges in niger. as long as that is not done, sadly it will look like the cycle of insecurity and the trend that is driving through the region would also eventually probably affect niger. sami: all right, we'll leave it there. i've got to thank our guests so much for their contributions to this show. thank you, too, for watching. you can see the show again anytime by visiting our website, aljazeera.com. for further, discussion head -- for further discussion, head over to our facebook page, that is facebook.com/ajinsidestory. you can also join the conversation on twitter. our handle there is @ajinsidestory. from me, sami zeidan, and the entire team here, for now, it's goodbye. ♪

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