russian missiles and drones blasted civilian buildings in ukraine. chinese president xi jinping concluded what he called a journey of friendship and peace to moscow. his warm reception. there comes as no surprise. vladimir putin is badly in need of friendship and peace to moscow. his warm reception. there comes friends after the international criminal court issued a warrant for his arrest. he clearly hoping that xi's grand display of solidarity will translate into economic and military support to help russia cope with sanctions induced shortages. china has bigger aims nothing less than rebalancing global geopolitics. so we're asking putin

under pressure is china the winner in the ukraine war hello and welcome. it is a great pleasure to greet our guests. angela stanzel is senior policy fellow in the asia program at the berlin based think tank s w p. suda. david wipp is senior fellow and regional director in the berlin office of the german marshall fund. and my d w colleague, vladimir epis works, excuse me. vladimir works on our russian desk and vladimir if i may start with you, putin absolutely pulled out all the stops on this visit. xi jinping even got to sit at a small intimate little table with putin rather than that infinitely long one that's reserved for western guests. yet, putin's

body language seemed to indicate that he was actually a bit uneasy compared to xi uneasy in the body language terms. but for him, it was a huge boost of support from china. it was the biggest and strongest signal he would need right now. two or three days of chinese president in moscow with this show of support, with this show of, of strength and another important thing. it's not only what's happening in moscow, but what didn't happen namely the chinese president didn't call sky in kiev zelensky is still waiting to talk to him and the ukrainian government trying to establish a kind of links to, to beijing and it fails since one year because since the beginning of the war, there was no direct contact between zen and xi jinping. and it's a very interesting signal as well. both of which of course go to the peace aspect of this visit and we're going to talk about that in a little bit more detail later on peace aspect of this visit and we're going to talk sort of prior to the visit. there was actually some

speculation amongst western media about whether she would truly go give that the international criminal court had just issued an arrest warrant for vladimir putin. certainly, and i don't nt to put too much weight on body language, but certainly xi didn't look very uncomfortable or embarrassed about his proximity to putin on this visit. no, not at all. and in fact, i think for president xi, it was also to putin on this visit. no, not at all. and a way of showing that china has the upper hand in this relationship with russia. what started out as a friendship without limits last year on the eve of the war is now looking like a relationship where china calls friendship without limits last year on the eve of the the shot and i think russia benefits because it's looking to secure new energy partnerships. an agricultural deal was apparently the shot and i think russia benefits because it's looking also inked. so these are all good things for russia but it's clear that the relationship is now asymmetrical. and

i will say that although that meeting occurred in moscow it was also interesting to see japanese prime minister visiting slansky in kiev symbolic step by the japanese angel. so you know, a journey of peace and friendship and yet peace got a lot more short than the friendship part you know, a journey of peace and friendship and yet of this. so was the peace plan that she had announced prior to the visit, essentially just window dressing. i mean, first of all, i think it's not precisely a peace plan. it's a position paper. and xi jinping presented mean, first of all, i think it's not precisely a this in a chinese translation, it's called a position paper and he presented his position and he reaffirmed his position with this visit. the position of china is partly low and he presented his position and he reaffirmed his position hanging fruits in terms of no use of nuclear weapons no attack of nuclear facilities, et cetera. but also of

course, there is the peace element in there which is that china is requesting a ceasefire between the two countries course, there is the peace element in there which is without of course, offering any details on how the ceasefire should come should come about. um so yes, it is it serves also to boost china's image of sort of mediator, mediator or even peace broker as china has done between saudi arabia and iran just recently. and we will come back to the peace part of all of this but let's drill down now on the friendship aspect. if as the two sides claim this is a no limits but let's drill down now on the friendship aspect. if friendship. it's not exactly between equals. chinese head of state but let's drill down now on the friendship aspect. if xi jinping's arrival in an american designed double xl jumbo but let's drill down now on the friendship aspect. if jet is in itself a demonstration of power toward his russian. a few days earlier, this video emerged of russian president vladimir putin on a pr trip to the occupied

territory of mariupol behind the wheel of a japanese car instead of a russian or chinese vehicle. these images make one thing clear. both countries still depend on western technology but this should come to an end soon as it becomes abundantly clear which country is more of the junior partner in this joint operation. china is currently buying energy and raw materials from russia at especially favorable prices. by contrast, russian accounts make up only 3% of china's trade balance. now, an alleged war criminal wanted by the international criminal court urgently needs new weapons to continue his military balance. now, an alleged war criminal wanted by the international conquests along with other supplies from china that are no longer provided by the west and we are ready to conquests along with other supplies from china that are no

putin's weaknesses, turning russia into a chinese vassal state. i'll pass that question right over to vladimir. and in fact a number of western analysts concluded that the visit does cement russia's status as a chinese vessel? are they jumping a number of western analysts concluded that the visit does to conclusions? well, i would not use the word vessel but junior partners are good for description of this relationship because if you look just on china, china economic market in the russian market, china and grabbing the shares left by western companies on the russian markets in russia. it's only 14 western car producing less in the inside of the country. 11 of them are chinese in chinese companies dominating 75% of the russian smartphone sales. so the westerns giving up on russia in chinese taking this uh shares for them. and in terms of russian economy, which is

extremely important for putin to keep the domestic stability strong you need stable economy, he needs, he needs china in chinese investment in chinese money. vladimir. if vladimir putin is so upset about the us and the west encroaching on russia, why would he allow russia to become a junior partner subservient to this massive massive power on his, on his on to is east. the message from, from moscow to the western world is we can perfectly survive without your money, without your investment, without the good relationship to to the western world is we can perfectly survive without the us to to europe, to brussels, to berlin, to to the western world is we can perfectly survive without whoever in the west, we don't need liberal democracy as a state concept, we are perfectly fine on ourselves and we look for our partners, senior partners, junior partners, whatever by ourselves. so it be a final in ourselves. so it's a pick by to the western democracies in general

of china. and russia don't actually use the term alliance when they talk about this relationship. so how allied are they? is this comparable this, this tie to, let's say germany and france as nato allies? well, i think the us administration has sort of describing it as a a relationship of convenience because as vladimir said, you know, they both have an interest in dismantling the global order that the us built after world war ii because china says it feels contained by the united states. russia is obviously you know, in the dog house with the west at the moment and it will take probably many years for moscow to gain trust with the european countries in this western alliance. so i think that right now they both see joining up as an advantage in terms of taking

away relative power from the united states and the west nonetheless, angela, looking at the longer term picture. would you say that putin is suffering from tunnel vision in a sense when he makes a pact with the devil, simply despite the west? well, i mean, that's probably a very sense when he makes a pact with the devil, simply simple version of it. i think a partnership with china is the lesser evil even though russia may not always like all aspects of it. um it's also something that you know, has been developing since many years, even before ukraine, that russia increasingly became more a junior partner to you know, has been developing since many years, even before china. it started basically already doing the sanctions following crimea and so on. so, i mean, you know, he knows he kind of knows his place, but let's not forget beyond economic might and that is still the case in particular military clout in regions

such as the middle east. and i think this is why i agree it's not a vasal, it's more of a junior partner and russia will still push through its interests even though china may not like it very much a junior partner and russia will still push through its but of course, on the other hand, on the long term, what we see is that russia is becoming increasingly dependent on china on many fronts, probably even on the term, what we see is that russia is becoming increasingly military front technology fund in the far future because russia is investing everything now in this war, which also means that china will have more of a say in regions where russia used to dominate. let's look at the arctic for example, you know, i think china will have much more, much more room to navigate there without taking in consideration russian feelings. vladimir, you said that the ties with china do have economic advantages for russia. however, russia is

selling china oil and gas at rock bottom prices. some china do have economic advantages for russia. however, russia is cynics have said in the past that russia is a i'm quoting john mccain here, the us senator, he said some time ago already. russia is a gas station masquerading as a country is putin essentially locking russia into that kind of a status, sorry to say. but russia is not a gas station. russia is much more than the gas station. if you look what's happening in africa, it's not a gas station. russia is much more than the not only arctic but in africa, it's perfectly fine cooperation between china and russia. china building the infrastructure in many african countries and russia washing the brains of africans because the influence of russia, russian info welfare in africa is extremely, extremely strong. so it's cooperation on many different levels so much more than gas and oil. it's on the global scale. it's against the united states, against the western ideology, against the liberal democracy as a state concept and

against a whole set of the western values we used to have here in the west. it's, it's, it's so much more for them on the ideological level, not only to have here in the west. it's, it's, it's so selling oil and gas, china and russia regularly hold joint military drills and for some weeks even i think now a couple of months, us intelligence services have been warning that they believe china is getting close to supplying russia with important military goods, including ammunition. russia, desperately short of ammunition at the moment as well as possible drones and other weapons. do you think that that will indeed occur would you expect to see china provide russia with the military support that it clearly badly needs. well, i mean i think, you know, china is probably providing russia with

dual use technology and splying russia with products that could perhaps help in the war. but certainly the step of providing lethal weapons is a big one, which would obviously also ruin china's credibility in terms of trying to position itself as an honest broker in media, mediating a peace deal between ukraine and russia. and i think it would also put china in a hard position vis a vis as a t trading partner because i think europeans will be then put, you know, be stuck between a rock and a hard place. if the us then slaps additional sanctions against china and europe would be forced to follow along when there are very strong trading ties between china and europe. i want to come back to that point in a moment, but just from the chinese perspective, angela, if i may having positioned so very firmly on putin's side xi jinping can scarcely afford in terms of saving face

to have russia lose the war in ukraine. isn't that right? i think that's precisely right. also because for china there is a huge uncertainty about the alternative, should, for example, putin fail and his regime collapse for some reason what would be the replacement of that also having a loser on his side in this war would then damage china's image. so i think this is the reason why he went to russia to talk to putin personally. and it's quite remarkable. i think that this visit is three days long and i think we only see a minimal snippet of what is happening there and what they are actually talking about. i think for a long time, we will not know what they haveve discussed behind closed doors but i think we can be sure that the aim was to ensure that there is some sort of an exit of this, preserving the regime of putin. let's come

back to the peace dimension of this three day visit exit of this, preserving the regime of putin. let's come as mentioned. prior to his trip, xi had released a 12 point position paper. can china truly play the role of mediator or is its plan nothing more than window dressing? xi jinping arrived in moscow with a clear strategy he wants to show the us and the rest of dressing? xi jinping arrived in moscow with a clear strategy the world that china is a political superpower after a successful mediation between iran and saudi arabia. xi now plans to move forward with a 12-point plan for peace in ukraine on the ukrainian crisis. china, the principles of the united nations taken an objective and neutral position, promoting peace and dialogue. officially china has tried to strike a delicate balance of not supplying weapons t to russia and opposing its

nuclear weapons program while maintaining a close relationship under xi's balance of not supplying weapons t to russia and opposing its leadership. is xi succeeding in walking this difficult tight route between russia and the west and let me ask you suda, many western analysts now say that they think the war will probably end with an uneasy cease fire of some sort. and the optimists hope that perhaps such a cease fire would then include at least some parts of don bask once again being under ukrainian control. is it conceivable that china could play a constructive role in moving both sides to that kind of, of a ceasefire? well you know, china certainly has leverage over russia and, you know, also has some leverage when it comes to ukraine because ukraine will face lots of, you know, daunting task in terms of reconstructing the country after the battle is

over and china could play a role there. but i think it's pretty disingenuous to see china as a honest broker, especially if it claims to want to uphold the principles of the un charter, but hasn'really seen the ukraine as a victim in this war and hasn't clearly called russia, the aggressor. and finally also has not mentioned ukraine as a victim in this war and hasn't clearly anything about russia, you know, sort of removing troops out ukraine as a victim in this war and hasn't clearly of occupy territory in ukraine. so it's hard to see at ts moment that china could play a constructive role vladimir, oddly enough in their joint statement that themade at the end of the visit, both putin and xi paid tribute to the united nations, although they in fact regularly block motions that could lead to some form of paid tribute to the united nations, although they in fact proactive peacekeeping, which of course is ultimately the function of the un. so why would they pay lip service to this institution? that is so very much part of the

old order, they seem to want to overturn, they want to create a new order. but this reference to the un is like probably the part of the game, they just need to american stage, like symbolical step towards the western to toward the global audience, not only in the west, but in the places like africa or latin america and the global people who are like catch in between these two battles of narrative between the west and russia and china. so it was a a reference to this this audience in my opinion and then they go and china. so it was a a reference to this over their agenda, ignoring the ukraine not calling zany during the the war in the ukraine, even even wars. yeah angela, in fact, beijing refers to the relationship with russia by a unique term that it uses for no other country, a comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination for a new era. how much capacity would these two autocracies actually have country, a comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination for a new

to revise the existing world order? well, i mean, i think they have both been working on changing the world order already even before the war. and i think the difference is between china and russia that russia was willing to overthrow everything for the sake of winning over ukraine while china is still trying in its own perspective, very smartly step by step, changing the world order according to its own interests. and precisely the un is the best example of how china has infiltrated and tried to influence and shape the un institution in itself according to its own interests. so i think if they now really stand together, of course, russia wl be a weaker player on many fronts, but china is ever so strong. and if they manage to actually form a bloc, not only consisting of russia and china, but the global south or thinking of saudi arabia and iran countries in the middle east of russia and china, but the global south or thinking that used to be or are still kind of in of russia and china, but the global south or thinking

the us camp. but you know, it's shaky, it's on shaky grounds. then i think they have great potential to alternate the existing international order. when you look at the rhetoric of the visit, suda, t was hard not to alternate the existing international order. when you look at the conclude that this visit was at least as much about pushing back against the us and the west as it was about peace and the ukraine, some polls including ones that your own organization, the german marshall fund has done show an increasing, increasing hardening of attitudes both in europe that your own organization, the german marshall fund has done and the us when it comes to china. isn't that a real downside of this block development that angela just described and doesn't china ultimately also economically need the west really more than it needs russia? well, i mean, i think china is also seeing the, you know, the winds go in that direction that both well, the us already

has bipartisan. there's bipartisan skepticism toward russia. but even here in europe, there's skepticism toward sorry china to china after covid, for example. and i think, you know, chancellor schultz has talked about the turning point of germany and that very much includes looking at authoritarian powers with a new view and not necessarily thinking it'smart to do critical infrastructure trading with countries like russia and china. but if i can push back on push once again on that point, angela, in fact, china's trade with the us is three times that the worth of its trade with russia so isn't there a very real downside to the path that it's taking here? well, i mean, i think this is why i kind of also reject the idea of a new cold war because of course, as you said the big difference in during the cold war, there was a new cold war because of course, as you said not that kind of interdependency. but what we also see

is that these kind of interdependencies do not stop conflict maybe it will stop a complete escalation and the third world war may still be far away as long as we see this kind of interdependence. but we see nevertheless a hardening of both positions, take the balloon episode as an example of how things can escalate diplomatically. and despite the interdependence, it's a phenomenon, right? we see conflict further developing further vladimir several of you have suggested that ultimately this chinese russian bond is very much also about winning hearts and minds in the global south. in many of those countries, those non aligned countries that have abstained on the un votes condemning russia. if that's the case, what those countries, those non aligned countries that have abstained on should the west be doing to ensure? and i come back to our title here to ensure that china and should the west be doing to ensure? and i come autocracy are not ultimately the winner of this protracted conflict

in ukraine. one thing for sure, the west should invest more in the information in the information and enlightenment of the global audience. so no cuts, no budget cuts on broadcasters in the west. no, no. how do you say it invest more in the, in the information? because russia investing huge amounts of money in global south to bring the narrative, to bring the view of the world situation to the to these people. if you look, if you travel to africa, you find so many people completely against to the to these people. if you look, if you the united states and completely pro russia. there's so much sympathy for russia in africa. i've been recently to nairobi the united states and completely pro russia. there's so much and kenya and i was surprised how many people are reading russia today. how many journalists getting pieces of content from moscow ready to print in their local newspapers? how much effort russia putting in this informational level of conflict

so in my opinion, the one most important thing, suda angela, same question to you very quickly. if you would our title asks is china the winner here. what, what would you say? and what do we, what do we our title asks is china the winner here. what, what have to do here in the west? i mean, i our title asks is china the winner here. what, what think the jury is out in terms of china being the winner because i think also china likes stability and doesn't necessarily want to have a war raging in europe because europe is an important trading partner. yeah. ok. thank you. thank you very much to all of you for being with us today and thanks to our viewers for