president trump peddled some pretty wild exaggerations on immigration, jobs, and the markets. but hey, his state of the union address was watched by the highest number of americans in history! no, actually. >> no. >> it wasn't. >> but the president does have a lot to brag about when it comes to the economy. what do the greatest minds in business and technology have to worry about when it comes to america's future prospects? they say, plenty. hey, i'm ali velshi.

>> i'm stephanie ruhle. like it or not, the state of the union today is dominated by controversies over russian interference and republicans taking aim at our own intelligence community. >> but if also true that america's economy is humming with trump at the helm, something that the president highlighted in his state of the union address, that's why we start. >> president trump stood up before a joint session of congress and marked the economy's good fortune since he arrived at the white house. he touted the number of jobs added during his first year in office. he praised the tax cuts recently passed by congress and the increases in take-home pay that he promises americans will see as a result of those cuts. >> his speech was littered with factual errors, misleading statements, and embellishments. >> for no reason. >> for no good reason. here are a few things he said about the economy that caught our attention. >> after years and years of wage stagnation, we are finally

seeing rising wages. african-american unemployment stands at the lowest level ever recorded. the stock market has smashed one record after another, gaining $8 trillion and more in value. >> okay. let's take this one at a time. the president says after years of -- >> because it is a good picture. >> it is a good picture. the trends are your friend, though. let's take a look at wage growth. that's the thing that's important, right? if you've got a job, then the ups and downs in unemployment are not as relevant as whether or not you can command a greater wage. that is 2017, president trump's first year in office. wage growth is the slowest it has been since 2012. the concept that there was no wage growth until president trump showed up on the scene is not even not true, it's the opposite of that. there was stronger wage growth in 2014, '15, and '16. >> with the labor market so tight, it should super charge wages. it hasn't yet.

i want to talk, though, about african-american unemployment. the president talked about it and takes full credit for it. they are at a low, that's great. but it is a trend. trend, to your point, is your friend. this trend started back in the obama administration. >> right. >> so how president trump doesn't at the very least hat tip to the last administration is beyond me. this month, for example, you actually saw it tick back up. gary cohn said one month is a blip, the trend is what i'm focused on. well, mr. chairman, maybe listen to mr. cohn, if the trend concerns you, look when it began. >> african-american unemployment ticked up by a lot in january of 2018, but it's not our inclination to say that's donald trump's fault. it's been moving in it lockstep with unemployment for years. what the president never acknowledges is the market was going up even before he got into office. it has been smashing records, no

question, despite this last week which has been the worst in a couple of years. but take a look at this. the blue line at the bottom is the s&p 500 which we like to talk about because it's 500 stocks as opposed to the dow. look at the top line. that's global markets. they've followed the same trends and in some cases have performed better than the united states with no donald trump at the helm. >> nikkei, hong kong, argentina. go around the world, we're actually seeing those markets outperform the u.s. stock market. this is an excellent picture. it's just baffling why the president chooses to misrepresent it. >> because if you can get past him misrepresenting it, we can talk about how do you reduce unemployment more. how do we deal with these issues. but we're business correcting him. >> president obama took us on a slow and steady positive path out of the financial disaster. and president trump through tax cuts and deregulation, goosed it, super charge it.

both things can be true. you know who doesn't acknowledge both things can be true? >> the president. >> correct. >> the president also mentioned trade as reports continue to swirl that he may walk away from the nafta deal, the north american free trade agreement. it's more than two decades old. it's a pact with canada and mexico. listen to what he had to say on trade deals in general. >> the era of economic surrender is totally over. from now on, we expect trading relationships to be fair and, very importantly, reciprocal. >> now, at heart, president trump thinks free trade agreements like nafta put the united states at a disadvantage. he's demanding big changes be made to them or else. but is nafta actually a bad deal for americans? president trump calls nafta a job killer, threatening to tear it up completely. but would americans benefit if

he really did that? the u.s. chamber of commerce says no. it estimates more than $3.5 billion in goods and services passed through america's borders every single day, making canada and mexico our two largest export markets by far. in 2016, those countries purchased nearly half a trillion dollars in u.s. goods, one-third of total u.s. exports. in fact, the amount of u.s. goods and services that are exported to both countries have more than tripled since nafta's signing. from $169 billion in 1993 to $582 billion in 2016. things like groceries, cars, and fuel. at the same time, u.s. imports from both countries, things like electronics, livestock, and machinery, have also gone up. and much of the merchandise that comes in contains parts or materials that are sourced in the u.s. the wilson center, a nonpartisan think tank in washington, offers this illustration.

mexico aan oil goes to louisian shipped to a factory in the u.s., where it's molded into a dashboard, where it's shipped back to mexico to be installed in a car. many products that are sold in mexico originate in the united states. this supports 6 million american jobs by harnessing the resources of all three countries. yet some american workers, especially in manufacturing, have lost out because of nafta and free trade. that's because many companies chose to move their production abroad to save on labor costs. but those job losses have been offset by gains for all americans. according to the peterson institute for international economics, the last half century of low tariff trade has been resulted in a gain in annual income of about $10,000 per household. scapegoating nafta may work politically. but like many of the policies coming out of the trump

administration, the facts just don't back it up. >> okey-doke. it's a good headline or a headline that works for the president when he says nafta costs this country jobs. since nafta began, brookings institute estimates the u.s. trade with mexico only has led to 100,000 net manufacturing job losses. that sounds like a big number, because every job does count. >> if it's your job, it matters. >> except that number adds up to 0.1% of the u.s. labor force. that's a tiny, tiny percentage. and if you look at the absolute overall, if you left nafta, it would have a negative impact on workers, employers, consumers across the board. >> so the issue isn't the trade deals and that they were badly negotiated. it's that these trade deals -- >> it's complicated. >> it's complicated. when these trade deals are successful, you lose a lot of the jobs that you otherwise depended on, in our case in

america, manufacturing jobs. what you need to do when you have these trade deals is also have domestic policies that deal with how do you retrain, what do you do if people need to move to get a job. and we don't do that. we took the trade deals, they increased gdp growth, increased corporate profitability but didn't actually deal with it. whether it's 100,000 jobs in mexico or the 400,000 manufacturing jobs, each country has to deal with these internal matters. >> we say, look at countries like germany, they have much better vocational training, much better workforce training. here in the united states we have a lot cheaper consumer goods and americans want those consumer goods. the answer is, this is very complicated. when the president puts it in these three-word slogans and points the finger, show me one country that walked away from a trade agreement with the united states. >> and said, oh, we got 'em. >> nailed the united states on that one. >> doesn't work that way. >> no. one thing the president barely touched during his speech was health care. sure, he bragged about getting rid of the obamacare individual mandate and experts warn that

could push health care costs up when they're already sky-high. that is why so many people perked up on the same day, this was a big one, when amazon announced that it is partnering with jp morgan chase and berkshire hathaway, three marquee brands, to offer health care to their employees, quote, free from profit-making incentives and constraints. that's 1.3 million people. >> that caused the health care market to cia rater. >> the details are skimpy. >> almost nonexistent. >> amazon has made a name using technology to disrupt supply chains with a simple click of the mouse. >> so the issue here is that, what happens if it succeeds, these are names good at being disruptive. it's 1.1 million employees between these three companies. but they don't have health care experience and expertise. what will they do if it works,

will they give it away and say, we've broken the code, everybody use our system? will they sell it to others? will they use it to attract more employees? >> i don't know, but i ask you, what's the downside? if they want to spend the time and money and create this partnership, let them try the experiment. >> yes. >> this administration is supposed to be pro business, pro innovation. i was actually surprised that you didn't see this announcement made kind of at the white house, with jared kushner, who runs the office of innovation, yet we haven't heard anything come out of that office. >> we don't know, we've not seen this type of example work anywhere in the world. >> i'm excited about it. >> i didn't know you could order a car with your phone a few years ago. >> because a few years ago you couldn't. >> that was exactly it. >> okey-doke. coming up, a conflict of interest takes down another trump appointee. a hint to the wise. if you are the official charged with fighting tobacco, you

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that's auto and home insurance for the modern world. esurance. an allstate company. click or call. welcome back to "velshi & ruhle." the jobs market got another big boost in january. according to new figures put out by the labor department, they show 200,000 jobs added to the economy in the first month of 2018 while unemployment stayed steady at a nice low 4.1% which is still the lowest jobless streak since 2000. >> at the same time, corporate profits are up. even with the stock market's losses this week, it is still going strong. plus prospects for global growth for the first time in a long time, coordinated global growth, countries all around the world, are looking up. i heard that from government and business leaders when i was attending last week's meeting of the world economic forum in davos or as you say --

>> da-vos. >> there is still stuff to worry about when it comes to assessing america's future. >> i'm totally worried about a recession. but i think at a normal level, it absolutely could happen. there are lots of reasons that it could happen. it's very worrisome that interest rates are, you know, practically zero in modifist of world. the fed usually cuts interest rates a ton in a recession. there's no room to do that. they have other things to do that they say are going to work. it's smoke and mirrors. >> we have the nafta negotiations coming to a head, first quarter of this year. a section 301 action against china on intellectual property, a little technical, but that could potentially rear its ugly head later in the year as a political issue. i think trade, people are relaxed but that at the moment but it's a risk factor. >> i understand that if you're

23 years old, you want to say is it still fair, is it something representing the economies. this by itself is not the threat. what's important is what's going to be the outcome. >> i'm very, very worried about the community health system, which is the front line for wellness and prevention. >> these are tens of thousands of community clinics that people can access because of the federal government funding that goes to the states. >> yes. it's the place where the community can go. and sickness is preventible. and if you don't have that, people end up in the hospital, very sick. the government pays for it. we have lots of challenges of people's health. and the economy suffers. >> there's going to be millions of people who are going to have to change their jobs. and there will be millions of jobs lost. but don't cut that part off. the other important thing is that there will be millions of new jobs created. >> we have to start now and educate the youth so you don't have that. so teaching, inspiration, right

on top of that. you can't think of kids who want to go into the disciplines of science, math, will do it by themselves. you have to inspire them. >> it means a more flexible economy that can create the new jobs as the old ones get automated and individual workers need to take responsibility for helping themselves and their families make that transition. >> so what caught me was ken rogoff from harvard talking about the fact that, look, we're overdue for a recession. there's nothing on the horizon that suggests it, nothing going on in other parts of the world suggests we're getting into one. if we had one, it would probably be a garden variety recession as opposed to the jungle variety recession we had last time. it would mean a little bit pulldown of the markets, a decrease on returns from jobs. we can get back from it. the question is do we have the ammunition we need from the fed. >> from a policy-making

perspective, what can we do? the fed has already done so much. if we did take a dip, and again, that is not in any way a knock on this administration. based on where we are in the business cycle, we're due. >> most of the world is in a similar position. the central bank has an ability to reduce interest rates to goose the economy. but our rates are still as low as they are. moody's forecasts we could be at 3.5% unemployment this time next year. somebody is saying we'll have a recession, somebody saying 3.5% unemployment. >> if that's where we end up on unemployment, that, amongst other reasons, are why we could see wages tick up. if those wages tick up, i don't care who takes credit for it. finally, we'll be addressing this income inequality divide in some way. >> it is why the market went down on friday, in part because of that. when unemployment goes down, investors get worried that wages are going to go up, and interest rates may go up, and

profitability goes down. >> i guess the disappointing thing is that this fractured world politics might actually be derailing economic gains from a global markets perspective. we are at this extraordinary moment. and why we are breaking that. >> brexit is a perfect example, regular folks not involved in what you would normally consider a business cycle taking a decision that really changes the economic future of britain and europe. >> and they may not realize it. okey-doke. coming up, if you run a federal agency that aims to prevent tobacco use, buying tobacco company stocks, it might raise a red flag. >> unbelievable. and president trump wants to invest $1.5 trillion in our nation's infrastructure. how much is he willing to pony up? >> details, details. nter of '77. i first met james in 5th grade. we got married after college. and had twin boys. but then one night, a truck didn't stop.

but thanks to our forester, neither did our story. and that's why we'll always drive a subaru. new banquet mega bowls, piled high with creamy mashed potatoes, corn, and shredded cheese under a savory blanket of gravy. but that's not all, because we topped it with crispy hunks of protein-packed chicken. now that's mega.

welcome back to this edition of devel"velshi & ruhle." we're talking about president

trump who called on congress this week to advance a $1.5 trillion plan to rebuild america's, quote, crumbling infrastructure. and he is right, it is crumbling. the plan calls for 200 billion bucks in federal seed money that would be used to raise the remaining 1.3 trillion from cities, states, and the private sector. that's a lot of money that needs to be raised. the federal contribution would be paid for by budget cuts. but cuts to what? we do not know. despite months of promising to do so, the white house still has not released a detailed proposal. now it seems, like so many other things, up to congress. >> this concept of public/private partnerships where the government seeds money and has some oversight over it but private enterprise raises the rest of the money and possibly profits from it has been used where also in telsewh world. there's concern that $200 billion doesn't get you what you need. the multiplier is very big on that. >> states cannot run a deficit.

they already have tight budgets. private investors oftentimes want a bigger nut than the return you get from an muni. >> the chamber of commerce and democrats are saying the federal government needs to put more money into it. brenda fitzgerald is the latest trump administration official to step down after being dogged by claims of conflict of interest. this one is good. the president nominated her to head the centers for disease control and prevention. instead she handed in her resignation this week after politico reported she had bought shares in a tobacco company one month into her gig directing the centers for disease control. stock purchases don't sit well with the agency's mission to combat tobacco use. this stuff is just whack. >> even if she had an outside financial adviser managing this. >> which is probably the case. >> it's still not kosher. once you have a position of influence like that, you need to divorce yourself of that.

i want to bring up another story, because this one gets me. this week we learned that ben carson was warned ahead of time that it looked like he was using his position at hud for private gain. his son is a businessman in the city of baltimore. he was warned against it and went ahead and did it. on his listening tour in baltimore, he had his son orchestrating meetings. somehow his daughter-in-law wins a consulting contract, no-bid, to hud. >> half a million dollars. >> half a million dollars . >> unbelievable. >> we'll keep asking about that. it doesn't sound good. but this does. finally we said goodbye to the girl from brooklyn, janet yellen, the federal reserve's first female chair and was probably responsible for more of the stock market's gains than the president will ever be. she was appointed by president obama in 2014, a strike against

her for trump, who appointed jerome powell to replace yellen. not only is she the first woman to lead the fed in its 150-year history, she leaves behind an impressive legacy. for that we say thank you, janet yellen, and goodbye. trails are covered. paths aren't what they used to be. roads nowhere to be found. ( ♪ ) and it's exactly what you're looking for. ( ♪ ) let's team up to get the lady of the house you're looking for. back on her feet. and help her feel more strength and energy in just two weeks yaaay! the complete balanced nutrition of (great tasting) ensure with 9 grams of protein and 26 vitamins and minerals. ensure. always be you.

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should i go habanero or maui onion? should i buy a chinchilla? comment below. did i mention i save people $620 for switching? chinchilla update -- got that chinchilla after all. say what up, rocco. ♪ good day, everyone, aim ai'x witt at nbc headquarters in new york. memo is the word. the fallout from the republican memo release and the impact it could have on the russia investigation. the democratic memo alternative. why it's three times longer than the gop's and what are the chances the president would ever let it be released? >> what's going on, a lot of people should be ashamed of themselves, and much worse than that. >> beyond the shame. is firing next? would the president dare to give deputy attorney general rod rosenstein the heave-ho?