joining us. as you'll see from the news today higher commodity prices are unusually widespread could it be that demand for products is finally coming true? i've heard that prediction for decades but somehow over production always seems to follow. but the demand is real, weather patterns have me a little unease about how well we producers will be able to meet the customer needs. time for the headlines. here is al. thanks john. after several years of shrinking herds, the cattle industry is poised for profits. they hit their highest mark in two years pushing beef up 20% in 2010. this had producers smiling. about 600 people participated

in the three day affair which included tours of local ranches in big sky country. they came to discuss the direction of the industry. they said market potential looks good next year and demand is up 5% from a year ago even if it remains flatly the be higher demand than 2010. for cap and -- prices will move tire, calf prices are averaging higher than a year ago. well see calf prices close to a dollar 30 by 2011 and we will continue that up trend into 2000 and 12 and 2000 and 13. he said that he expects u.s. beef to get more access into

export markets. and somehow next year, about half indicate that they expect to start increasing herd size. to the dairy size u.s. da said that concentration continues on at break neck speed the ag department compared the u.s. dairy herd report to last year. the operations dropped 33%, and down to 65,000, despite that decrease milk production and cow numbers have gone up. operations with more than 2000 cows had had the biggest percentage increase, up 128%. and for the first time in 15 years cotton jumped above a dollar a pounds this week the spike is due to export sales and a weaker dollar. predictions lowers u.s. stocks a half million from august that means more cotton was out bound

due to tight foreign supplies. now back to john for crop watch. crop watch this week reflects the weather extremes right now. we have this this photo from minnesota. they had significant flooding about 8-inches later. in ohio we received a photo from ohio state university showing the devastation after a f2 tornado struck a week ago. the facility has been closed during the scene up and in rush county indiana a mile long field fire forced the

evacuations of residents of the village of williams town. firefighters think harvest equipment played a roll. all terrain vehicles are important to farmers. we are helping honda power sports give away a atv this fall. to qualify we want to know what are the top 101 ways that farmers are ranchers use a atv or side-by-side. go to the honda big red button, we will take entries throughout cement and we will announce the winner later this fall. when u.s. farm report returns it's time to talk markets. we will sit down with al in just two minutes please stay with us. mosh

our round table guests this week, mike flores and gentleman we have had an unusual market the last two or three weeks i don't know where it will stop but the thing i would like to find is somebody. could you give me a summary of what happened this week jim in we had strong prices in soybeans this week and finally on friday the corn and wheat, wheat which had had been under pressure earlier in the week. and then corn had a strong close on friday. there was concern with what triggered the prices on friday was the heavy rains going through minnesota and parts of wisconsin. 7 to 10-inches of rain or more. concerns of yield loss because of the rains. we continue to have a large amount of investment money coming into the agriculture

markets. we see historic highs in gold, and the idea that food inflation and china which is effecting all sectors in china, high prices in pork, soybeans and such will finally draw some more chinese business to the u.s., they have been aggressive buyers of soybeans all summer and that continued this week. and they will eventually buy u.s. corn also. high prices has been going on for a while but we were down early in the week but based on what jim said you have any disagreement with what causes this at this point in time and where are we going i guess is my question? >> it's a sweet spot for

agriculture right now. there's so much demand for what is perceived as a diminishing supply. we will have less corn now than years ago so it will be hard to think we will not challenge the all time highs again sooner than later. you'll not predict that but you are saying -- or are you? >> the only thing that will derail the prices is a war somewhere or a stock market event. the supply demand are positive for the market for it to sink for any length of time. you get small corrections. 28-cents was all you got over a couple day period of time. it's such a bull market it keeps going up. will this have an effect of the users of the product. we are talking about outside money coming in forcing prices up. if i have not covered myself and i'm a user i'm going to

have to pay the high prices does that bother the user? >> the end users got caught by surprise here. the commodity trend followers have been big followers they have moved from long to short in corn two or three times but they caught a trending market and they keep adding to hit and because the corn yields surprised everyone about how poor they were when they got a did start to the season the end users never stepped up and covered their needs thinking they would get an opportunity to do that at the harvest break. it's the trend followers that have taken the market a way from the end users and i think another thing that happened this week was we started an acres battle for next year. and a leading group on thursday came up with acres numbers that i think people were looking at

but really put it in the for front about the acres battle we will have for next year. we had cotton prices at 15 year highs this week so some cotton acres will pull away from corn and soybeans in the delta and it shows the acres battle that is going on and the investment community will buy the commodities and sit on them waiting for the acres battle to play out. >> where do you think we will go -- we will talk about the acres battle in a bit -- you think we will continue to go up? >> i do. i do. it's hard to -- you are forced every day if you want to buy the market. you have to buy it every day at contract highs. it's hard to do as a trader because it's a dangerous situation. they can take it a it away from you quickly. it's a difficult trade to make. but you have to buy the market at any dip you get.

>> we willl

round table guests this week. we were talking earlier about the battle that will go over for -- go on actually for the ground to plant for next year in a also tells me that some of our producers will have to be thinking about next year's prices with the prices the way they are now. but explain that battle as you see it right now quickly, jim? it looked like a lot of wheat acres would be planted because of price -- then they would plant soybeans after the wheat. >> right. but that will pull the wheat acres back out. we are going into a period of time though that we are just the beginning of having major harvest activityity. the weather for the next two weeks looks good.

that maybe enough of cash movement to cap prices for now. corn has been in a .25 trading range and we may be in that. i'm a little skeptical of soybeans prices. the yields we are hearing is good in beans. we could have a large soybean crop. we have excellent demand from china and they may take meal from us and we will be a good supplier of meal to europe ans. and we have a south american crop ready to plant. the weather put a premium into the market because of dry weather in south america. they are leaving the dry season, to a more traditional wetter pattern and that is in the extended forecast. there will be bean supplies planterred in brazil. we could have very large bean

supplies. now this could be a year that we have very large demand which is ideal for producers because that's the best situation. big demand and good supplies. that could be enough to cap bean market for the next month or so. we have not heard that much about what is happening in the the europe union about getting their wheat this gear and all that sort of thing. i he -- i guess what i'm thinking is we are in a world market all the way around? >> it has started from the russian situation and spread from there. >> right. it's hard to see any significant decline in price here that i can see. i hope you get it because i would like to buy more. but it's difficult the demand is too strong. i foresee higher prices coming

still. significantly higher. you will wait and sell and take it that way. there's a lot of stories, there's not a lot of -- farmer are sold out pretty much across the country. the selling has occurred. where does the ownership come from. if you get a break in the cash market that does not mean the futurer will break. you can have to same situation now. >> just a moment ago you mentioned off camera this problem with the basins where the elevators could not handle it and the producers were having to sell at base but they were not getting the cash in their pocket. the base is still in areas for wheat and in the northwestern plains for corn is very poor. now it will take a while i think for the market to sort that out and that base will come back. but that is part of the

influence of this investment money coming in, buys and can holds, you keep the futures at high prices. whenever that situation, they say al you need to talk about bases. can they take advantage of the board and protect themselves so that they can get the profit to bases or how can they handle that? >> a good marketing plan will allow them to have positions on and then over time the basis improves. so it will be weak during harvest but next spring in we have shortage of supply the basis will improve a great dial for many areas. >> storage is a big answer. right. >> right. >> anything you want to add to guys? >> keep buying the dips. be careful. useship stops.

it's going to be a rough ride but i think we are going higher. and if you are a producer you need to sell high. >> yeah. >> jjust trying to figure out why we are. we will be back with more u.s. farm report in just a moment.

welcome back to u.s. farm report we continue to see dryer and dryer areas in the southeast and up the eastern sea board we are seeing into the new england area we are seeing some drying parts of maryland and into west virginia seeing try spots and also much of southeastern alabama and southern georgia seeing severe drought in had some areas. continues to be bad in northern louisiana and in fact it starting to get worse again, and that extends to the ohio valley with moderate drought, a

much larger area than a month ago. spot trout -- this is the second day in a row. or third day in a row that we have seen this cut off showing up to computer models so it appears that it will happen. it will it will be a slow moving storm system. typically cause a lot of vows. they will weaken with time and they will cause scattered showers, much of it weak the way it looks. in the tennessee valley and ohio valley. the computer does not connect it with the weather stream until next weekend. these cut off lows are tough to forecast. we will keep it there over the western tennessee valley as we head into monday. a stationary front to the east and muggy conditions in the southeast.

cool up across the northern tear of the states still hot in the southwest. on wednesday then, we will see the low still there causingshow it is moving up the eastern see board. we will be back in the next half hour with a longer range forecast.

the crop watch story this week and my own experience driving to south bend reminded me of the frightening power of the wild fires. it's another to watch a wall of wind whipped flames spread into your standing crops. high winds and dry fields provide perfect conditions for fires this week. and as i drove near indiana the first unmistakeable smell got my pulse raking. the smoke was going up into the air behind me.

i've seen a few fires and caused one myself. the damage was minimal but a small fire can give us a taste of how it shaped the prairies of midwest. whether by natural sources or man made, it has created some of the best crop land. those fires must have been terrifying. watching a fire approach unharvested corn is bad enough. perhaps it takes an actually experience to teach us respect for wild fires but conditions of low humidity, high winds and above normal temperatures should trigger alarm bells in our head before we smell smoke. please, let us know what you think. send emails to info at u.s.

farm report.com. or leave us a voicemail. load up for a ride in a family owned ferry. the u.s. farm report is come oning up. stay with us. report...

the egg contamination n little light on the actual today on u.s. farm report. the contamination investigation in eggs sheds little light on the causes and pair pear producers tally up the crop. we're full o tod hello and welcome to u.s. farm report. i'm john, well we are full of harvest news the today and most of it is not too bad. one thing is it's ahead of schedule i now have neighbors that are done with both corn and soy more vest. i know because they spent the next day driving around to tell

us. there's a chance we will finish before the date we started last year but we are not straining to meet the deadline. in fact the intense feeling we feel is missing. i can live with that. more importantly, we hope to discover what october is really all about. maybe we will even take a trip. that is just crazy talk there. let's get started with the headlines there and al. >> thank you john. the owner of one of 2 iowa egg pardon mess linked to illnesses refused to testify before a house subsume investigating sub investigating the out break. the hearing was called to investigate how the out break occurred. leading to a recall of half a million eggs. lawmakers were wondering how the new fda regulations in place since july could prevent

future problems in the industry. the inquiry was focusing on two companies. one company did not testify. but the other said that he feels contaminated feed was the reason for the out break. harvest is under way in mississippi and louisiana but the really story is quality. the mississippi department of agriculture said they have not seen quality like this in years. that is a far cry from last year when 3 quarters of crop was destroyed by late season rain. louisiana has 14,000. meanwhile pear harvest is under way. now there's plenty of fruit but it will not a record breaker. according to reports production

is down 11% from last year. cold weather did not help and despite the challenge marketers are ever hopeful. >> last year we were looking at the largest crop ever in a challenging economy. and ask still we had a great season. pear prices held firm. and it was a great season last year despite the challenges we were entering the the season with. we are expecting nothing different had this year. we are expecting to have a nice year. 84% of the pear crop is grown in or o-and washington however china is the global leader in pear production. time for the national forecast from mike hoffman. well the jet stream this week showing big changes over what we have seen. a huge ridge out west that will

hold the coming week and a big trough to start the week. it is a big trough nonetheless. it's chilly up across the northern states. if it will cut off in the middle of the country of the southeastern portions of the country and there it is. and had you cut it off from the main jet stream which is now tearing across the northern states that will sit there for a while ask computer models have a tough time for this. this may be with you for several days and on up to the ohio valley and once it starts to connect back to the overall jet stream we will see it take off to the northeast again and we may connect it with a big trough by the end of the the week. that is up in the air. it may still stay cut off that means a wet situation for the southeast and fairly wet especially toward the end of

the week all the way up into new england. out west not many changes there. warm and hot in that area with a big ring overhead. here is the temperature forecast that i'm putting out for next week. for the first full week of october. above normal temperatures for much of the west into the northern and western plains states below normal from southeastern texas and louisiana and all the way up to the ohio valley and tennessee valley. precipitation then below normal for the plains states and above normal for most areas from the mississippi valley on east ward. let's let us go out 90 days then. that puts us into december. above normal on into texas to the southeastern great lakes. precipitation near normal for most of the corn belt. texas into the southwest probably below normal.

john. the ultimate farm quest series is brought to you by case ih t the world of farming the changing. our ultimate farm quest update takes us to northwest ohio for a first hand look at corn harvest. we caught up with doug as corn harvesting was under way on his farm. rain showers showers were not there. we had minimal rain since 4th of july, happy with the harvest here. the rest of the corn up north i think will be 30 or 40bushels better. we had higher water holding capacity than the farms up north so we are happy. this moisture on this corn is unbelieveablely low and it's because it matured to early. the test weights are 59, 59 and

a half and moisture is running between 16 and 18 on average. it's right at 16 and a half to 17. i don't care to have it lower than that. we will talk about the things he is doing to make his fleet for productive. a one of a kind ride across the ozarkses waterway. spirit of the heart is next. for those living

and working in the ozarks, ife. for those living and working in had the ozarks, crossing water is a way of life. while bridges are the common choice there's an alternative that has stood the test of the time. steve grant in springfield missouri has our story. you are on highway 125 on the lake. no road signs but this is is short cut you'll want to take. from dock to dock it 3 quarters of a mile. from dock to dock by road it's 100-miles. every day of the year and holidays the arkansas ferry takes cars across. our year round average is is

roughly 85 vehicles a day. it is deceiving that number just through the week now we are around 100 or 120 a day weekends higher and can holidays higher than that. we see some of the people over and over and sometimes you see them one time for the rest of your life. 60-tons of tug and barge and joyriding. and for locals doing entertaining. we came to see our son and grandchildren. they have never seen the ferry. so this was a thing for them to do. when cars came to scene, ferries still operated on streams, a dime a car and by world war ii a dollar. and farmers paid with produce forever. seldom a day off.

loading, crossing and landing. that ferry driving takes a license now. why did they not just build a bridge, here is is the arkansas highway map. it's a lot of work for a small amount of fuel. what it costs to run the ferry is not near what it costs to maintain a bridge of that size. ferry is the last of its kind. a round trip takes 45 minutes. mechanics week, hotel you can only find in iowa. that story is next week. all terrain vehicles are the work horses on farms and ranches across the country. now you have a chance to win a new unit for your operation.

we are helping honda power sports give away an atv this fall. we want to know what are the top 101 ways that farmers or ranchers use atv's or side-by- sides. we will be taking entries throughout september and we will announce the winner later this fall. when we come back, baxter black debates the merits of modern . like many

traditions, technology has altered the landscape. baxter black joins us from his next week, baxter branding cattle is a tradition. baxter black joins us to explain more on this. >> springtime, wild flowers are blooming long you johns are

coming off and it's branding time. cows and calfs have been sorted and branding pots are set up brands are heating and vaccine guns are loaded and ear tags are lined up. wait. technology has reared it's sleek automatic finger fashioning head into a tilt table calf shoot. when your your neighbor ands you to come and help brand,s ask which way he is doing it. you appreciate that it is easier to calfs and the help

and it takes less time and labor but it's so mechanical. so speed locked so farmerrerrish. it's like work. branding calfs is not supposed to be work. it's supposed to be like christmas, the 4th of july. going to the national finals rodeo, not like unloading a salt block. you wear your chaps and spurs not your cover alls and steel toed work boots. you worry about missing your finger. a jab with a hot shot or a professional injection does not have the same yeehaw as a

double over the shoulder catch. it's the difference between shooting a bird out of the air and hitting one with your car. besides, it gives your horse a perfect and you a little glamour and we can all use that now and then. this is baxter black from out there. next week baxter tells us why a work clock does not work on a farm. when we come back, tractor tails featurers an old john deer. and then we have our country

fully restored john deere "b"... tractor tails this week takes us to minnesota for a look at a

fully restored john deer be. this is a 1936 john deer model b ed's father george bought it from the original owner in 1955 and they farmed land that was rented from the airport. so it worked right up there in the south metro and was used for many,s many years farming that area. in the process of restoring this storing tractor we went through everything and replaced everything. the engine has been overhauled the exhaust system has a c era mic coating. this one is better than new in that regard where the exhaust

system will stay nice for years. it has a early style shutter on the radiator, you can turn the handle here to raise it back up and that was used for helping the engine warm up so then you can change it over and run it on distilate feel. we will take it to others to the minnesota state fair as a machinery display and we will visit with people that walk by and admire the remodeled john deer b, a group of 20 german immigrants the church was built the following year. they sponsor the local food pan triand preschool.

the membership is 90. our second church is the emmanuel lutheran church in iowa. it was organized by 27 founding members. three current members are desendentses of the organizers. as always we would like to hear about your home church as well. stay with us the mailbag is inside the farm

report mailbag.... my assertion our sugar progra time now for a weekly look inside the farm report mailbag. my assertion that the sugar program was protectionist brought an email from a industry representative. it was disappointing to see the opinion on the sugar policy. we are the world's second biggest sugar producer. we buy sugar from 41 suppliers

38 of which are developing countries. we buy it whether we need it or not. that is why foreign sugar suppliers are behind us. these countries are targeting the direct government payments that u.s. farmers depend on for a safety net. they are would shing closely with commodities. slug a after is doing this because all of agriculture needs to join forces right now. not tear each other down as your comments encouraged. our sugar program is a stark example of protectionism and i stand by it. it is used by the leading college of economics textbook to ill straight harmful trade

policies second all the other countries are doing it is hardly a reasoned argument. more importantly there are fewer than 10,000 sugar producers in the u.s. and almost half of the billions of dollars of benefits goes to one percent of them. about one hundred big growers. finally i spent 30 years trying to end sub -- visit the home page for moring information. as always we would like to hear from you. leaf us a vote mail or send comments. for al and mike i'm john saying thank you for watching u.s. farm report. be sure to join us next week we will be working to do even better.