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Apr 11, 2024
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then it was shelby say i know paul volcker and you're no paul volcker. now all of sudden he is trying to be alan greenspan. he is not trying to be paul volcker. trying to assuage the investing class, not americans who are dealing with inflation. >> the investor class or less charitiably other interests in washington. james o'keefe came out with this investigative hidden camera interview with a fed economist. it looks like they have got a finger on the scale. so you know, this is really, i think the fed's credibility is on the line both their credibility in terms of fighting inflation. their credibility in terms of generally politically neutral. charles: quickly, before i let you go, speaking of the federal government, cbo coming out with first quarter deficit. a month ago they said, for the whole year we would be at 1.5 trillion. the current runway is four trillion. getting to the point, so absurd, a trillion here, a trillion there, who cares? >> it really is. and you know i think what's most distressing to people, there is no help on the way. it is a un
then it was shelby say i know paul volcker and you're no paul volcker. now all of sudden he is trying to be alan greenspan. he is not trying to be paul volcker. trying to assuage the investing class, not americans who are dealing with inflation. >> the investor class or less charitiably other interests in washington. james o'keefe came out with this investigative hidden camera interview with a fed economist. it looks like they have got a finger on the scale. so you know, this is really, i...
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Apr 27, 2024
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paul volcker, the chairman of the federal reserve board, has been implementing policies that are exactly opposite in basic thrust from what you recommend. he has been squeezing the productive sector of the economy in favor of the speculative sector. now, i mean, frankly, mr. president, there are important sections of the american economy that are about to go under and won't even have an opportunity to benefit from the programs that you're putting forward, because of the federal reserve's policy. i have a two part question. first of all, do you think that objective economic conditions justify the interest rate levels that we now have? and i don't mean for your answer to imply criticism of the fed. it's just objective question. and the second question is, are you concerned that there might be a sabotage, so to speak, of your policies by programs that the federal reserve might be putting forward? no, i'm not concerned that there would be sabotage. i've met with mr. volcker and not with the intention of trying to dictate, because it is an independent agency, and i respect that. but i think t
paul volcker, the chairman of the federal reserve board, has been implementing policies that are exactly opposite in basic thrust from what you recommend. he has been squeezing the productive sector of the economy in favor of the speculative sector. now, i mean, frankly, mr. president, there are important sections of the american economy that are about to go under and won't even have an opportunity to benefit from the programs that you're putting forward, because of the federal reserve's...
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Apr 16, 2024
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he declared on the floor of the senate that i would be paul volcker 2.0, paul volcker being a hero of is. they came out in november looking for three rate cuts. ever since then the numbers have gone straight up. i feel like he is in something of a bind. what's worse, okay? the touche, waiting too long, you know, central banker, arthur burns, you know, not being tough enough? i mean it's just, it files like we're between a rock and a hard place here? >> we are in a bit of a difficult situation but i think if you take a step back from the day-to-day volatility and the play-by-play policy making we've been discussing for a while now, you have a situation in which there is still disinflationary momentum in the economy, less pricing power, less, more pricing sensitivity. that tends to be disinflationary. it tends to be bumpy until we got to 2%. i'm not sure it is worth fighting all the way to 2% before you start to ease monetary policy we have to consider the possibility that again we are in a cycle where you are seeing some signs of some softening in the labor market. some signs of consum
he declared on the floor of the senate that i would be paul volcker 2.0, paul volcker being a hero of is. they came out in november looking for three rate cuts. ever since then the numbers have gone straight up. i feel like he is in something of a bind. what's worse, okay? the touche, waiting too long, you know, central banker, arthur burns, you know, not being tough enough? i mean it's just, it files like we're between a rock and a hard place here? >> we are in a bit of a difficult...
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>> well the reason i pointed to 1980 was, the volcker deep curve inversion essentially disintermediated the entire savings and loan and thrift industry which was 80% of the supply of mortgage, residential credit at the time. that opened the door for securitization and they were being disintermediated by money funds on the deposit side. charles: right. >> they never recovered. so we're in the same polls now with small regional banks that the longer this persists, and i'm not saying one of the fed's doing the right thing because i'm pretty hawkish on inflation. i don't really think we're going back to two, but to get the banking system right-sized because of the curve the fed really does need to go to four. so it's a real quadrilemma. charles: we got all four of the fours. barry, great stuff. i always learn every time you're on the show but you took me to a whole new level this time. thanks a lot. i thank you on behalf of the audience as well. >> wore a tie for you today, charles. charles: you got a haircut. i see everything, my man. market momentum has gone vertical. usually that's a bad
>> well the reason i pointed to 1980 was, the volcker deep curve inversion essentially disintermediated the entire savings and loan and thrift industry which was 80% of the supply of mortgage, residential credit at the time. that opened the door for securitization and they were being disintermediated by money funds on the deposit side. charles: right. >> they never recovered. so we're in the same polls now with small regional banks that the longer this persists, and i'm not saying...
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Apr 15, 2024
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to be head of the fed and volcker decides that the way we're going to break the back of inflation is to put interest rates up to 20%. and we all know how that worked out. so, yeah, it did break the back of but at the cost of a terrible recession. and then reagan roaring in and reagan does neo big time. so unfortunately the carter repositioned democratic party as a kind of center, a center right party. privatization, tax cutting, anti-union and the. 1980 election. is it total blowout? really the new deal long shadow of the new deal continues right through the seventies. nixon did not try to repeal the new deal. eisenhower certainly did not try to repeal the new deal. eisenhower has a democratic senate for six out of eight years. final in 1980, democrats, the senate and a whole of senate progressives gets blown. republicans take the senate and this really is the beginning of, the conservative era. the both roosevelt, truman, johnson had large majorities of their party in congress. the great 89th is very famous in terms of did so did carter. yeah and and yet. yeah. carter in 76 did have
to be head of the fed and volcker decides that the way we're going to break the back of inflation is to put interest rates up to 20%. and we all know how that worked out. so, yeah, it did break the back of but at the cost of a terrible recession. and then reagan roaring in and reagan does neo big time. so unfortunately the carter repositioned democratic party as a kind of center, a center right party. privatization, tax cutting, anti-union and the. 1980 election. is it total blowout? really the...
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Apr 30, 2024
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even when we strip out the early 1980's, the volcker years when they were trying to crush inflation, you get a number that actually is still in the mid to high sixes. what happens if we go back to that? if that's normal, if that's nominal, how many of your businesses, how many of your lives, but how much of this u.s. debt when we have to refinance? so this year, a little under $10 trillion will come to market. that's the stuff we have to refinance. remember, part of that refinancing is when you stay very short on what they call the curve, which is the fancy way of saying we're going to borrow some 30 days and one year and two years and five years and 10 years. but the short stuff here, you have to refinance over and over and over. when interest rates are this high on u.s. sovereign debt and you have hads 10 trillion coming to market, maybe $2 trillion or $3 trillion is new debt, the rest is refinance, what would happen if you had a spike back to normal? remember, we're already modeling right now, approaching $1.2 trillion in interest this fiscal year. becoming the second biggest debt
even when we strip out the early 1980's, the volcker years when they were trying to crush inflation, you get a number that actually is still in the mid to high sixes. what happens if we go back to that? if that's normal, if that's nominal, how many of your businesses, how many of your lives, but how much of this u.s. debt when we have to refinance? so this year, a little under $10 trillion will come to market. that's the stuff we have to refinance. remember, part of that refinancing is when you...
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Apr 9, 2024
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you remember the paul volcker inflation. then comes joe biden. you can look at this as something you could use against biden in the campaign. if that is the case, you have to put the onus on donald trump for having so many job losses during his term, averaging 783,000 jobs lost a year, and joe biden's gained over 4.9 million a year. that is only because you are averaging. the point is food prices went up, food prices have come down, we saw a lot of people lose jobs , those people got their jobs back. it's not really the president's fault. sonali: certainly a significant pocketbook issue, and a staggering statistic. mike mckee, we thank you so very much for your time. that was a big topic of discussion at our desk today. let's discuss this with u.s. secretary of agriculture tom vilsack. we thank you so much for joining us on a critical issue here. you think about the issue of inflation and as it pertains to food prices, farms across america, how are you navigating it? sec. vilsack: first of all, in terms of food inflation, there is a significant e
you remember the paul volcker inflation. then comes joe biden. you can look at this as something you could use against biden in the campaign. if that is the case, you have to put the onus on donald trump for having so many job losses during his term, averaging 783,000 jobs lost a year, and joe biden's gained over 4.9 million a year. that is only because you are averaging. the point is food prices went up, food prices have come down, we saw a lot of people lose jobs , those people got their jobs...
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Apr 11, 2024
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. >> biden annual rate is 6.1, steve forbes highest since 1983, in 1983, they were -- reagan and volcker bringing inflation down. this is just wobbles back up. >> larry summers, a democrat points out if you put in cost of interest, you do have to pay -- mortgages, it was 18%. 3 % on, 4% they bandied around today is like 8 %, and given now, with mortgage rates up, car payments up, credit card payments interest rates up. guess what, people have to pay; that that is a cover the of living, that the -- cost of living that government ignores. >> thank you, you know, summers, that was a national bureau of economy research piece of work. you are right, thank you for that john carney spot on. i am listening to forever expeffer, iand ever. coming up on kudlow president trump is unifying g.o.p., but also the country. and his best claim is success is the best revenge. we'll talk about that with senator tim scott, he is a hot pick for vice president. and then bad day for bidenomics and biden reelection, a great day for charlie hurt and gianno wal caldwell, they will weigh in here, when we return o mo
. >> biden annual rate is 6.1, steve forbes highest since 1983, in 1983, they were -- reagan and volcker bringing inflation down. this is just wobbles back up. >> larry summers, a democrat points out if you put in cost of interest, you do have to pay -- mortgages, it was 18%. 3 % on, 4% they bandied around today is like 8 %, and given now, with mortgage rates up, car payments up, credit card payments interest rates up. guess what, people have to pay; that that is a cover the of...
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can say we are lowering rates it doesn't make sense would make a asymmetric similar to 1970s, when -- volcker back then, in, that period of time. >> would he move his target for inflation say okay we are not getting to 2% so we're going to say 3% is fine that would be egg on face. >> huge egg on face not going to do that he wants a soft landing i am not sure going to happen at this point in time. if he starts cutting reducing ahead of the election, that is not going to look like their objective. >> people think he is going to try to help joe biden cutting rates before election we will see about that. >> correct one thing to keep in mind if market lower three months heading into election tiblly your incumbent does not get reelected you want the market to pull back ahead of election if you would like to see trump reelected i think a better solution. >> are there charts most compelling to you upside or down. upside, companies like advanced auto parts aap, great, disney great reversal micron to a 4-year high so trim nvidia extended stocks think about micron, like ibm a lot of great stocks to buy
can say we are lowering rates it doesn't make sense would make a asymmetric similar to 1970s, when -- volcker back then, in, that period of time. >> would he move his target for inflation say okay we are not getting to 2% so we're going to say 3% is fine that would be egg on face. >> huge egg on face not going to do that he wants a soft landing i am not sure going to happen at this point in time. if he starts cutting reducing ahead of the election, that is not going to look like...
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Apr 5, 2024
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he was comparing what volcker had to do compared to what powell has to do. powell has another challenge to kill inflation and not the economy. he says in the u.s. banking system, there are excess reserves 1,700 times larger than pre-lehman. we are talking about $3.2 trillion balance sheet. that is negating the fire power that the fed has had to get inflation down and temper the excess spirits in the market. >> steve, one of the big concerns right now is about whether or not we can see the u.s. economy sustain its path with or without rate cuts. the expectations have been there and that's what's been driving things to record highs here. how contingent is the global economy right now with the minds in cernobbio? how contingent is the u.s. for the whole story for the global economic growth picture? >> i think that is the question, dom. that is absolutely pivotal. if you asked me that five years ago, iwould not be worried. you had enormous growth from china you had a been growing. now will china grow 5%? 4%? there are concerns about the balance sheet recession t
he was comparing what volcker had to do compared to what powell has to do. powell has another challenge to kill inflation and not the economy. he says in the u.s. banking system, there are excess reserves 1,700 times larger than pre-lehman. we are talking about $3.2 trillion balance sheet. that is negating the fire power that the fed has had to get inflation down and temper the excess spirits in the market. >> steve, one of the big concerns right now is about whether or not we can see the...
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Apr 11, 2024
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showing we have potential 1970s situation on our hands where inflation reaccelerated, reaccelerated and volcker's fed had to keep raising rates. that's the pickle powell is in. he maybe didn't raise enough and now we decide do they need one more rate hike. stuart: it was a politicized federal reserve and won't raise rates to be friendly to biden. do you agree with that? >> i agree the fed is political, but they're trying to stay out of it. i've long said on this show repeatedly the fed is a political and don't want to get in the way of an election and a rate cut would be helping biden. but if you remember during president trump's tenure, he also requested a rate cut too. it happens on both sides of the aisle. they all want the tail wednesday and it's not going to happen. if you get a cut, it's november or december. stuart: just like trump for leaning on the fed. he did that . lou, hold on a second. in addition to nearly everything else and the price of stamps could be going up again and, lauren, what's the price of first class stamp now and where do they want to move it up to? lauren: 68-cents an
showing we have potential 1970s situation on our hands where inflation reaccelerated, reaccelerated and volcker's fed had to keep raising rates. that's the pickle powell is in. he maybe didn't raise enough and now we decide do they need one more rate hike. stuart: it was a politicized federal reserve and won't raise rates to be friendly to biden. do you agree with that? >> i agree the fed is political, but they're trying to stay out of it. i've long said on this show repeatedly the fed is...
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Apr 30, 2024
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i remember a bond family, interest rates were going through the roof and paul volcker was doing everything to crush inflation. this doesn't remind me of it. >> eventually -- there are concerns the consumer is tapping out or start ting to tap out to some egree. i hear both of you, respectfully -- >> it's okay, go. >> -- explaining away it all. explaining away this sticky inflation. >> i don't know. i don't think we're explaining it away. >> i kind of do. >> look at marriott. look at services that continues to be on fire. consumer is still spending. savings rate, i'll give it to you, it's come down, but it's still at 3%. and jobs, if you want a job, you can get a job. 1.2 jobs available for every one unemployed person in this country. if the labor market is tight, wages are going higher, that is wonderful for the consumer. that's a tail wind. >> let's be clear. i'm not suggesting that we have a problem of staygflation today. when you get a gdp number that was a disappointment -- i get it, it's the fed's preferred measure, and it was okay relative to the last few cpis. but if you continue to
i remember a bond family, interest rates were going through the roof and paul volcker was doing everything to crush inflation. this doesn't remind me of it. >> eventually -- there are concerns the consumer is tapping out or start ting to tap out to some egree. i hear both of you, respectfully -- >> it's okay, go. >> -- explaining away it all. explaining away this sticky inflation. >> i don't know. i don't think we're explaining it away. >> i kind of do. >>...
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Apr 5, 2024
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paul volcker, whom i worked under many years ago, and apparently the hero for mr. jay powell, actually used the second one. he squeezed availability of reserves. banks didn't have much reserves. they scrambled and the federal funds rate went to 22% and killed the economy and finflatin and in that order. this time around, chairman powell doesn't have that option because of the reserves in the banking system. the reserves is more than 1,700 times larger than before the lee lehman crisis. here you try to tighten with this tool and you have to rehe m move the 3.2 trillion first. before you have the grip on the situation. you cannot do that overnight. that means all of the efforts on monetary tightening were on interest rates because you cannot use the other tool. >> we hear a lot of words on cnbc. it goes with the territory. listen to what richard koo just said. the amount of excess u.s. banking reserves is 1,700 times larger than it was pre-hlehman. if nothing else, take nothing away from morning programming today than that fact, that shows you why central banks in th
paul volcker, whom i worked under many years ago, and apparently the hero for mr. jay powell, actually used the second one. he squeezed availability of reserves. banks didn't have much reserves. they scrambled and the federal funds rate went to 22% and killed the economy and finflatin and in that order. this time around, chairman powell doesn't have that option because of the reserves in the banking system. the reserves is more than 1,700 times larger than before the lee lehman crisis. here you...
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Apr 10, 2024
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that is the highest since the mid '80s, actually 1983 you about in 1983 they were bringing, reagan and volcker were bringing inflation down from 15 to two. this thing is wobbling back up again. >> it was larry summers, a democrat, former treasury secretary points out. larry: yes. >> if you put in the cost of interest, you pay on mortgages high was nine t was 18%. the 3%, 4% they bandied around today is more like seven or eight. given what is happening now with mortgage rates going up, car payments going up, credit card payment interest rates going up, guess what? people have to pay that. that is a cost of living that the government ignores. larry: thank you for reminding me. you know, summers, that was nber, national bureau of economic research piece of work with some other economists. so you're right, thank you for that. john carney, spot on. i'm just going to listen to you, forever and ever. all there is to it. folks i have to jump out. i'm a little short on time. thank you very much. coming up here on "kudlow," president trump is not only unifying the gop, he is unifying the entire country
that is the highest since the mid '80s, actually 1983 you about in 1983 they were bringing, reagan and volcker were bringing inflation down from 15 to two. this thing is wobbling back up again. >> it was larry summers, a democrat, former treasury secretary points out. larry: yes. >> if you put in the cost of interest, you pay on mortgages high was nine t was 18%. the 3%, 4% they bandied around today is more like seven or eight. given what is happening now with mortgage rates going...
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Apr 25, 2024
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rate hike cycle centered around arthur burns, the federal reserve official who got it wrong and paul volcker, the federal reserve official who got it right and jay powell went to the senate. he said on the senate floor he would not be arthur burns. listen they didn't cut-rate. >> right. charles: some are wondering why they stopped hiking. maybe they stopped hiking too soon? >> maybe they stopped hiking too soon. we have to definitely got to put the word out the idea of having even one rate cut this year is really unlikely. because we need to slow down this inflation. it is really starting to pick up, it is becoming concerning. >> that is another thing, a lot of folks are saying powell helped to add, even saying we'll have three rate cuts was too much too early, actually made his job a lot harder. >> right. charles: i was reading your note. all the things you're talking about, plus the 5% bond yield, this 21 p-e ratio should be 15? >> we're looking 5% yield we're getting close in the 10-year that discounts how much you should pay for equities. these are obviously the more riskier estimates. c
rate hike cycle centered around arthur burns, the federal reserve official who got it wrong and paul volcker, the federal reserve official who got it right and jay powell went to the senate. he said on the senate floor he would not be arthur burns. listen they didn't cut-rate. >> right. charles: some are wondering why they stopped hiking. maybe they stopped hiking too soon? >> maybe they stopped hiking too soon. we have to definitely got to put the word out the idea of having even...
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Apr 10, 2024
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volcker himself breathed a sigh of relief when he was in the treasury they 1971. so you never know. anyone who pretends to know is either very young or is kidding himself or herself. maria: real quick before you go, would you put money to work in commodities today given that we've seen this runup, the momentum is there. does it have legs to keep going? >> let me say with respect to the gold market, the gold price itself, it's up, new records. what's lagging are the gold miners, i think it reflects a lack of interest in the sector on the part of western investors, americans in particular. if you're looking for a part of the market that is still value laden, with the assumption that the gold price stays where it is, does better, gold mining shares would seem to be a reasonable choice. maria: i actually got an idea you out of you on -- jim grant, it's great to see you. thank you so much. >> you're entirely welcome. maria: grant's interest rate observer founder, jim grant here. we'll be right back. t cashbackin. not a game! we're talking about cashbacking. we're talking about... we're n
volcker himself breathed a sigh of relief when he was in the treasury they 1971. so you never know. anyone who pretends to know is either very young or is kidding himself or herself. maria: real quick before you go, would you put money to work in commodities today given that we've seen this runup, the momentum is there. does it have legs to keep going? >> let me say with respect to the gold market, the gold price itself, it's up, new records. what's lagging are the gold miners, i think it...
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Apr 17, 2024
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[laughter] you know, i've been in this business since 1983, so i came in when volcker was just beginning his second term. liz: wow. >> so i've been through a lot of changes, a lot of different periods. but invariably, the traders never believe the fed. even now with the bernanke legacy, they're highly communicative, they say what hay mean and hay mean what they say, but that's been the same for a long time. inflation remains sticky. they're not going to cut. they would like to cut. they'd like to cut three times this year. i doubt they will get to do that. we have -- when the market initially expected at the beginning of the year traders were looking at 5-7 cuts, we were saying likely 2 cuts, and the fed was saying 3. liz: yeah. >> inflation is stickier than expected, but the lumpiness in earnings season, this is inevitable, it happens. last quarter, which turned out to be a really good earnings season, q4, had a lot of lumpiness at the beginning. i remember the financials came out, they were mixed, they sold off very similar to this last one with. and, you know, insurers, well, you know
[laughter] you know, i've been in this business since 1983, so i came in when volcker was just beginning his second term. liz: wow. >> so i've been through a lot of changes, a lot of different periods. but invariably, the traders never believe the fed. even now with the bernanke legacy, they're highly communicative, they say what hay mean and hay mean what they say, but that's been the same for a long time. inflation remains sticky. they're not going to cut. they would like to cut. they'd...
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Apr 12, 2024
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charles: and it took paul volcker to really, really crush the economy, you know, to the point where he ask and ronald reagan were seen as a villains initially. but after time, after inflation was killed and it was deadly, after they crushed it and the economy was allowed to come back, they were seen as a heroes. but we were told that jay powell's' ready to do the same thing, and he came out the gate pretty strong. but we haven't had a rate hike since july. and this is one of the longest periods between a hike and a cut, and now they seem con size. how much of this action is concern that maybe the fed doesn't have a handle on this. >> i predicted and i think on your show that if we saw any cuts, it'd be in the first half of the year because powell didn't want to interfere with an election, and and now, like, powell's got another problem. it's not a matter of when he cuts, it's a matter of do we cut or do we raise. charles: right. >> so the last thing we want to do is sort of throw more fuel, i hate to keep using that word, on the fire. if you look at those numbers, there were things in
charles: and it took paul volcker to really, really crush the economy, you know, to the point where he ask and ronald reagan were seen as a villains initially. but after time, after inflation was killed and it was deadly, after they crushed it and the economy was allowed to come back, they were seen as a heroes. but we were told that jay powell's' ready to do the same thing, and he came out the gate pretty strong. but we haven't had a rate hike since july. and this is one of the longest periods...
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Apr 24, 2024
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was it a, paul volcker, b, alan ladd, c, alan alda, or d, alan greenspan? >> d. charles: d? >> d. charles: d. alan greenspan, maestro. [applause] let me tell you a quick story with alan greenspan. so he had this briefcase that he walked around with. they called it the briefcase indicator. everyone was so enthralled by you know what he was going to do they had this sort of way he carried the brief cast or whatever, they would sort of get a hint. my opinion on green green is i think he might have actually though created a monster because the federal reserve is far too big and far too important to other economy and our stock market, it really is. and right now we're in in the mt perhaps of another mistake by the federal reserve. the business cycle has all blown up. you can't really start a business. you don't know if interest rates will be up or will be down. it is an absolute unmitigated nightmare. they need to stop trying to save the stock market. they need to stop being popular. if it is time to put down some pain, it is time to put down some pain. folks here we go. are you ready?
was it a, paul volcker, b, alan ladd, c, alan alda, or d, alan greenspan? >> d. charles: d? >> d. charles: d. alan greenspan, maestro. [applause] let me tell you a quick story with alan greenspan. so he had this briefcase that he walked around with. they called it the briefcase indicator. everyone was so enthralled by you know what he was going to do they had this sort of way he carried the brief cast or whatever, they would sort of get a hint. my opinion on green green is i think...
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Apr 26, 2024
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powell promised us he would be volcker, not arthur burns. let's talk about earnings season. coming into today, 5% of companies beat -- 59percent of companies beat on revenue. earning, listen, they always find ways to beat on the bottom line, but are you okay with earnings so far? >> i would rather see the breadth of earnings growth continue. right now technology is leading the way once again just as they have in the markets over the last 15 months. it's forecasted that technology sector will grow earnings year-over-year by about a 20%, yet that's only forecast about half of 1% for the s&p 500. that's concerning to me. we need that breadth of growth. charles: let's talk about opportunities because you still like this a.i. universe -- >> i really do. charles: you say that's where the opportunities are. software, we had tyler radke here earlier concern. >> he covered that. [laughter] charles: he covers it every day. >> we'll concede that to tyler. charles: taiwan semi's interesting. >> yes. charles: they're been up in and down, in a way, they sparked this last leg of the a.i. h
powell promised us he would be volcker, not arthur burns. let's talk about earnings season. coming into today, 5% of companies beat -- 59percent of companies beat on revenue. earning, listen, they always find ways to beat on the bottom line, but are you okay with earnings so far? >> i would rather see the breadth of earnings growth continue. right now technology is leading the way once again just as they have in the markets over the last 15 months. it's forecasted that technology sector...
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he doesn't want to be remembered as a paul volcker. he wants to be jerome powell who got it once he got away from being behind the curve. so far, so good is what we think. lisa: a theoretical idea. what if on friday we get a huge number? is that a better risk for the equity markets. or a weak number that justified rate cuts? what would be a better number? john: that is hard to tell. it depends on what kool-aid they are drinking on the trading floor around the country that day. [laughter] when you look yesterday when powell initially had spoken the market went down. this isn't so bad. you get that. it's not so much roll with the punches as you have to have context. annmarie: perfect. john: compared to what? i can't think of a jazz musician, who it was, but compared to what was a great tune 20 years to 30 years ago when i was still a young man. jon: let's talk about where the bar is at. the bar is higher now than at the start of the year. we are thinking about upside surprises potential for positive surprises. going through the quarterly
he doesn't want to be remembered as a paul volcker. he wants to be jerome powell who got it once he got away from being behind the curve. so far, so good is what we think. lisa: a theoretical idea. what if on friday we get a huge number? is that a better risk for the equity markets. or a weak number that justified rate cuts? what would be a better number? john: that is hard to tell. it depends on what kool-aid they are drinking on the trading floor around the country that day. [laughter] when...
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Apr 26, 2024
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bush made comments >> i remember talking to paul volcker before he passed away. he had conversations with james baker on behalf of reagan back in the day this is very different some of the former president's advisers requiring that candidates for the fed chair privately agree to consult with trump on the central bank decisions. others made the case that trump could sit on the fed board of governors on an actsing basis. people described this as far fetched. nonetheless, for those in the finance world who said, okay, i like the tax policies or i'm okay with this or that -- this is different if the federal reserve -- >> no names attached to it no names attached to it. the people that were asked don't know anything about it i like to know who are the people peter navarro? not to disparage him i don't know about the sources, but which allies of trump, if trump doesn't know about it, which it says, he may or may not. >> we don't know. >> that's what i'm saying. who is this? how crazy? what constitutes an tally or a confidante >> we all think this is a crazy situation t
bush made comments >> i remember talking to paul volcker before he passed away. he had conversations with james baker on behalf of reagan back in the day this is very different some of the former president's advisers requiring that candidates for the fed chair privately agree to consult with trump on the central bank decisions. others made the case that trump could sit on the fed board of governors on an actsing basis. people described this as far fetched. nonetheless, for those in the...
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his comments, chief economist but works under paul volcker. the problem jay powell has this time, told me volker didn't have, size of the expect reserves in the u.s. banking system. according to richard, there are 1,700 times larger u.s. banking system prepared to pre-lehman. around $3.2 trillion making it more difficult, withdrawal of the stimulus that came with qe. making it more difficult to make it more potent. interesting. quick word from el-erian, chief economic advisor said fed has to stop giving us a play-by-play commentary on every single piece of data. what they've got to do start being a lot more strategic in longer-term view. amazing people are here. the real message from europe, this ain't just about the u.s., rate decision and payroll numbers. this is about the global economy and keeping ing at least one of legs on the stool there so actually the whole global economy doesn't collapse. back to you, andrew. >> steve sedgwick on a major hard assignment this morning. appreciate news and perspective on all of it. thank you. >>> all ri
his comments, chief economist but works under paul volcker. the problem jay powell has this time, told me volker didn't have, size of the expect reserves in the u.s. banking system. according to richard, there are 1,700 times larger u.s. banking system prepared to pre-lehman. around $3.2 trillion making it more difficult, withdrawal of the stimulus that came with qe. making it more difficult to make it more potent. interesting. quick word from el-erian, chief economic advisor said fed has to...