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Four years ago the lives of these Turkish firefighters changed for ever

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An earthquake of catastrophic size tore their city apart

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Even after 72 hours of non-stop working day and night without any sleep

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when we found someone alive it gave us such a morale

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boost that we forgot everything

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Although thousands died

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many survivors owed their lives to the actions of these men and women

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People were helpless and as the Fire Brigade

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we were the only ones they could turn to

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but there were times when even we felt helpless

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I remember having to hide and cry secretly many times

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But now a frightening forecast suggests it is only a matter of time

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before these fire-fighters are needed again

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Scientists have identified a new phenomenon called an earthquake storm

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and one is blowing across Turkey

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If their forecast is correct then next in line is a city of 14 million people

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On August 17th 1999

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at just after three in the morning

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a massive earthquake struck the Turkish city of Izmit

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Thousands of people fled as their homes collapsed around them

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I couldn't fully understand what was going on

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I didn't realise it was an earthquake as I wasn't fully awake

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Mum was crying and she said Ömür,the house is going to collapse

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and I replied don't worry Mum

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just hold me tight and that was the last conversation we ever had

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The earthquake claimed the lives of some 25,000 people

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The destruction spread over hundreds of kilometres

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and much of the area was reduced to rubble

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People were so shocked

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Buildings had collapsed

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Some of them survived,but some were still under the rubble

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Some of them managed to get out of their home

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and they just stood there completely dumbfounded

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They didn't know what to do and could not think of

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ways to help the trapped victims

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Everyone was in shock

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For the people of Izmit the disaster was totally unexpected

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but what they didn't know was that a year earlier

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the entire disaster had been forecast

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We made the calculations, we knew that Izmit was dangerous

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Our work showed that this area was at risk

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an earthquake would come and that tens of thousands of people were likely to die

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And yet that warning was not heeded

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Few preparations were made,few contingency plans were put into place

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When the Izmit earthquake happens

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there are two sorts of feelings it sort of arous

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arose in me. One was frustration

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The other one was anger,anger with myself

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anger with others because sort of

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we knew it was coming and yet nothing had been done

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Now the same scientists who highlighted the threat facing Izmit

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have made another forecast

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If they're right the danger could be heading for another city

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a city much bigger than Izmit,a city with over 14 million people:

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Istanbul

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because scientists believe that Turkey is in the middle of a new phenomenon

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where one earthquake triggers another and then another

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Some are calling this an earthquake storm

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The trail of clues that led to the discovery

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of the earthquake storm began here in Crete

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2,000 years ago the Greek island was one of the key

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trading centres in the Mediterranean

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but it was shattered

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when the island was apparently struck

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by the single biggest earthquake in recorded history

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Evidence for that huge event is everywhere

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This line here separating the light rock

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from the dark rock is the ancient shoreline

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and it carries on along this coast at the same level

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Years ago the sea would have been up here lapping against

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the rocks here and then something dramatic happened

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One day the land suddenly rose up by about 6m here and the sea just dropped

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A drop of six metres is the mark of a truly great disaste

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A sudden jump of a coastline by this size really is

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a telltale signs of a massive earthquake

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Archaeological evidence showed just how devastating

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this one event apparently was

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With an earthquake of this size it just crushes towns in seconds

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When the earthquake starts to stray the first few things

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the walls start to go,the roof starts to come down

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and anyone that's underneath is just crushed

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What we're looking at here is crushed skeletons lying underneath masonry

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and roof tiles and,and in amongst this all we've got columns fallen down

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we've got pottery,everything else.This is everyday life

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just crushed by an earthquake

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And amongst the remains lay a vital clue as to when the earthquake took place.

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This particular coin is dated to Contantius II

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and that puts it roughly about 360AD.

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Now this coin was found in the skeletons of the people crushed under the ruins

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and what that means is the earthquake destruction

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is dated to shortly after360AD

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Ancient writings provided more evidence for the disaster

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and dated it precisely to July 365AD

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and for centuries many scholars found signs that the destruction

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from the 365 event had spread far wider than just Crete

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Terrible disasters took place all of a sudden throughout the world

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Shortly after first light preceded by heavy and repeated thunder

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and lightening the whole stability of the Earth was shaken

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As more historical evidence was discovered around the Mediterranean

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more damage was attributed to this one huge event

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Cities 1500km apart appeared to have been struck by the same earthquake

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A destructed Roman villa in Sicily

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a destroyed Roman city in Libya,a destroyed Roman city in Cyprus

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destroyed buildings in Alexandria,all of these have been put together

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to generate this just ginormous earthquake that struck the length

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and breadth of the Mediterranean

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It seemed that few places in the Mediterranean escaped this destruction

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Its range was so enormous this one earthquake became known as

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the Universal Event

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This was a truly giant earthquake

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In fact,in terms of human history this was the biggest earthquake

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the Mediterranean had ever seen

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But despite all the evidence for this one massive earthquake

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there were some who had their doubts

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It was just too big

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Historian Emanuela Guidoboni has studied ancient earthquakes

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for decades and was troubled by the idea of this Universal Event

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The area of damage was enormous

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but it just didn't add up because the damage area extended

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from Cyprus to Sicily,North Africa,Crete,reaching as far as Southern Italy

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It simply wasn't credible

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Intrigued Emanuela re-examined some of the historical texts

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She was drawn to one writing in particular

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The scholar Libanius wrote an epitaph for the death of

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the Roman Emperor Julian the Apostate

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In this epitaph for Julian he depicts these great images of earthquakes

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that shake the land and gives examples of Libya,Sicily,Greece

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Like a horse tossing its riders she has destroyed a great number of cities

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many in Palestine and all those in Libya

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The greatest cities of Sicily lie in ruins

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as does every city in Greece except one

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Many historians believe the epitaph referred to the 365 event

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but Emanuela found something that didn't quite fit

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The dating of Libanius's text is fundamental for

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understanding the earthquake of 365

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Libanius wrote the epitaph for Julian on the death of the Emperor

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That is in May 363

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In other words,Libanius had written his epitaph two years

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before the Universal Event

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and there were other writings that didn't make sense

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It seemed that other earthquakes had been misdated

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There had been seven earthquakes before 365 and three afterwards

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so in 12 years there were 11 earthquakes

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almost one earthquake a year

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There was a seismic crisis in the Mediterranean

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For Emanuela the theory that one single earthquake had wiped out

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most of the Mediterranean in 365 had to be wrong.

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There had been no Universal Event

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Instead,it appeared that a cluster of separate earthquakes

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had exploded across the region in a storm

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each event seemingly triggering the next

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It was an ingenious idea,but the suggestion that one earthquake

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could set off another had always been regarded as scientific nonsense

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Earthquakes are one of the most studied natural phenomenon of all

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In the last 100 years they've claimed the lives of over

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one million people and many more have been left homeless

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Although extremely complex,scientists are beginning

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to understand what causes these events

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They know that most earthquakes strike where the Earth's

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great continental plates push against each other at fault lines like this

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They also understand how they happen

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Well this is an earthquake machine

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and we know the Earth to be composed of 12

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or so plates and the plates are in constant motion,which is represented

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here by the winch,and along the boundaries of all of

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these plates are faults and this is a fault where the sandpaper

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meets the brick in frictional contact

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and the rubberiness of the Earth,represented by this elastic cord

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stores the stress that builds up along the boundaries of these plates

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and eventually the stress overcomes the frictional resistance

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and we have an earthquake

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But these faults stretch for thousands of kilometres

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Pinpointing precisely where an earthquake will strike has always been a mystery

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We know there's going to be big earthquakes over time

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We just don't know exactly when they're going to happen

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They could happen 10 minutes from now,they could happen 10 years from now

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There's just no way to predict it

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The one thing they did know was that smaller tremors called aftershocks always

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followed a main event, but finding a connection between large earthquakes

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years apart had proved impossible

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Scientists had to accept that the planet's most destructive

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tremors struck randomly and were totally unpredictable

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Basically I'm throwing darts at a map and so the whole world of earthquakes

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was viewed as dart throws that were independent in which nothing about the last

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earthquake was going to condition my ability to say

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very much about the next earthquake.

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So the idea that earthquakes were random became the accepted view.

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The trouble was the historical evidence suggested that

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large earthquakes were very much connected.

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We're finding these earthquake clusters at other times in human history

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We've got them in the 18th century and the 15th century in Turkey

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and people are even suggesting that the end of the Bronze Age civilisation

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across the whole Mediterranean region could have been due to one

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big earthquake cluster,so the big question is:

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is that just random is that just chance

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or we actually get a process where one is triggering

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the other which is triggering the other

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The archaeological evidence was suggesting one thing

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but the scientists could just not explain it.There was simply not enough evidence

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To understand how earthquakes might interact they needed

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far more data than the historical records could provide

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There was one obvious place to look:

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the San Andreas fault in California.

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One of the most active earthquake zones in the world this great scar

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on the Earth's crust was created when one continental plate clashed with another

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Seismologist Sue Hough has been fascinated by thus area all her life

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I've been driving all over California looking for places like this

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places where you can see evidence of faults in the ground and what's remarkable

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about this place is that usually when plates slide past each other the

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effect on the landscape's very subtle and here you can stand not only in

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a fault zone,but actually on a plate boundary and that's really remarkable

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You can go a few steps over here and you run into the Pacific plate

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and that continues all the way to Japan almost

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A few steps in this direction and you run into the North American

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plate which keeps going all the way to New York

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so you have massive tectonic plates on either side and this is

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the one place where they meet and this is

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the place that great earthquakes are going to happen

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What makes the San Andreas so notorious is that sitting

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at one end is San Francisco Bay

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The six million who live here know an earthquake could happen at any time

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Famously one struck the city in 1906 killing over 700 people

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Another hit in 1989.This time over 200 people lost their lives

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The earthquake hit at the start of San Francisco's rush-hour and on a key double

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deck motorway in Oakland the top tier collapsed trapping hundreds of cars

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on the lower tier on a mile-long stretch

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With so many lives at stake

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understanding how earthquakes behave along the fault is critical

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This has made the San Andreas one of the most studied faults in the world

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and along it there is one place more closely observed than anywhere else:

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Parkfield, the earthquake capital of America

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Parkfield is wired with a huge network of high-tech equipment

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John Langbein is one of those in charge of these

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sophisticated earthquake monitoring device

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Here at Parkfield we have a variety of different instrumentation

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some of which include seismometers which measure

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vertical and the horizontal motion

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This is a GPS unit.This is a two-colour EDM

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This is a a creepmeter and across the hill we have the deep drilling site

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And the reason Parkfield was the hub of earthquake activity in California

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was because it had suffered from earthquakes with unusual regularity

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The last one was in 1966

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the prior one was in '34 and the one prior to that was in '22

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but extending over a longer period of time they appear

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to be roughly every 22 years

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On that basis it meant that the next one was expected around 1988

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By 1987 much of the equipment was in place and Parkfield was ready to capture

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an earthquake as it happened

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Then the wait began

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1988 arrived.They waited and they waited,but the year passed without event

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1989 nothing happened.1990 nothing happened.1991still nothing happened

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Then in 1992 something did happen

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California was hit by the most powerful earthquake in 40 years

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The only trouble was it wasn't at Parkfield. It was more than 400km away

255
00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:44,600
and struck the small town of Landers

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00:21:44,840 --> 00:21:47,840
The small desert community of Landers where the pavement ripped

257
00:21:48,080 --> 00:21:50,280
and scattered like someone shuffled a deck of cards

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00:21:50,480 --> 00:21:54,440
Before today few people probably had ever heard of Landers,California.

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00:21:54,720 --> 00:21:57,360
Now the community has made seismic history

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00:21:57,680 --> 00:21:59,760
The largest amount of ground movement in a California

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00:22:00,000 --> 00:22:01,480
earthquake in over 100 years

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00:22:01,840 --> 00:22:05,840
Geologist Sue Hough felt the tremors from 100km away

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00:22:07,600 --> 00:22:10,640
The Landers quake where I felt it,it was like somebody picked up my house

264
00:22:11,000 --> 00:22:13,840
all of a sudden and just started shaking it back and forth

265
00:22:15,360 --> 00:22:17,320
It, the power in it is just remarkable

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00:22:17,480 --> 00:22:21,640
It comes out of nowhere and the,the energy involved is just staggering

267
00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:28,240
One person died and 171 people were injured

268
00:22:29,200 --> 00:22:33,840
There was million of dollars' worth of damage and the fact that Landers

269
00:22:34,040 --> 00:22:37,280
was hit and not Parkfield seemed to show just

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00:22:37,480 --> 00:22:39,560
how unpredictable earthquakes could be

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00:22:41,320 --> 00:22:43,920
but Landers was not the dead-end it first appeared

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00:22:45,000 --> 00:22:49,840
In fact,it was to give scientists their best insight into how one earthquake

273
00:22:50,000 --> 00:22:52,720
could set off another and it would bring them closer

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00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:55,560
to understanding the earthquake storm

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00:22:57,920 --> 00:23:03,320
because three hours after Landers a huge aftershock struck 40km away

276
00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:05,640
near the town of Big Bear

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00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:07,040
Holy shit!

278
00:23:07,240 --> 00:23:10,880
This footage was taken at a nearby observatory as the earthquake hit

279
00:23:11,040 --> 00:23:12,480
What happened to the telescopes?

280
00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:19,440
Destroyed. Go,go,go, come on.It may fall off.I got it on tape

281
00:23:24,360 --> 00:23:27,880
Convinced the two events were linked,geophysicist Ross Stein

282
00:23:28,040 --> 00:23:32,040
was determined to find the mechanism for how Landers had triggered Big Bear

283
00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:36,920
The argument of people who held the earthquakes were independent and random

284
00:23:37,760 --> 00:23:40,800
was basically to dismiss the presence of aftershocks

285
00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:45,080
just say well let's just skim those off the record of earthquakes

286
00:23:45,240 --> 00:23:48,120
and what's left over is random and that seemed ludicrous to me

287
00:23:48,280 --> 00:23:50,720
because about a third of the earthquakes in any earthquake

288
00:23:50,920 --> 00:23:52,000
catalogue are aftershocks

289
00:23:52,560 --> 00:23:56,080
but when I began to look I saw that aftershocks were occurring all over the place

290
00:23:56,760 --> 00:24:01,480
very,very far from the fault that ruptured and so aftershocks were the clue

291
00:24:01,920 --> 00:24:06,440
that we needed to follow up,to figure out how earthquakes interacted

292
00:24:09,400 --> 00:24:11,360
And his team had a great opportunity

293
00:24:12,640 --> 00:24:15,840
Instruments around the state captured Landers and the aftershocks

294
00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:18,680
that followed in extraordinary detail

295
00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:22,000
The scientists knew how deep the rupture went

296
00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:26,720
where the fault had broken and precisely how far it had slipped

297
00:24:27,520 --> 00:24:28,840
They had numbers for everything.

298
00:24:29,520 --> 00:24:34,880
Data is king in earthquake science.It trumps theory,it trumps everything

299
00:24:35,120 --> 00:24:39,440
When we have great data we really can develop a deep understanding

300
00:24:39,920 --> 00:24:44,960
Nothing exceeded or met the quality of data we had for Landers

301
00:24:47,520 --> 00:24:50,960
Never before had their been so much information about two earthquakes

302
00:24:51,640 --> 00:24:55,760
so they set about looking for any connection between Landers and Big Bear

303
00:24:59,240 --> 00:25:01,480
They had been working on a computer model that they hoped

304
00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:04,320
would illustrate how one earthquake could trigger another

305
00:25:06,200 --> 00:25:08,640
The idea behind it was remarkably simple

306
00:25:09,840 --> 00:25:10,640
Go,come on

307
00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:19,920
As an earthquake strikes and the fault lines pull apart the system release

308
00:25:20,120 --> 00:25:21,760
a huge amount of pent-up stress

309
00:25:22,520 --> 00:25:23,480
Move it,come on

310
00:25:24,000 --> 00:25:28,840
Their theory was that as the earthquake releases this stress it is redistributed

311
00:25:29,080 --> 00:25:32,000
to areas close by seen here in red

312
00:25:32,600 --> 00:25:35,640
These are the likely areas where the next earthquake should take place

313
00:25:38,400 --> 00:25:41,200
the trick was to find out where these red zones might be

314
00:25:43,120 --> 00:25:46,440
To do this they began to feed the data into their computer

315
00:25:47,160 --> 00:25:50,360
The model had to take into account hundreds of calculations about

316
00:25:50,480 --> 00:25:55,880
how much the fault had slipped,how deep underground the rupture had occurred

317
00:25:56,400 --> 00:25:59,720
and the elasticity of the Earth's crust

318
00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:06,160
So the way we set this software up was to give us a visual sense in which areas

319
00:26:06,320 --> 00:26:09,200
were more likely to produce earthquakes and were more

320
00:26:09,360 --> 00:26:14,840
hazardous were turning red and areas that were farther from failure were blue

321
00:26:16,480 --> 00:26:21,240
Finally the model showed where the stress from Landers had been transferred

322
00:26:21,840 --> 00:26:25,040
The area to the west lit up in red

323
00:26:25,600 --> 00:26:30,160
We were hunting for the possibility that Big Bear occurred in a region

324
00:26:30,360 --> 00:26:35,240
one of these red lobes where this stress was jacked up

325
00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:37,120
by the occurrence of the Landers earthquake

326
00:26:38,960 --> 00:26:43,440
And sure enough slap bang in the middle of the red zone sat

327
00:26:43,600 --> 00:26:45,520
the Big Bear earthquake

328
00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:53,280
Having Big Bear land in the middle of our red blob was very exciting

329
00:26:53,720 --> 00:26:59,160
but that in itself doesn't clinch the case because Big Bear could have

330
00:26:59,320 --> 00:27:03,720
landed there by accident and that's always a possibility and so what we were

331
00:27:04,080 --> 00:27:08,320
to depend on were not just that one earthquake,regardless of its size

332
00:27:08,560 --> 00:27:12,760
but the 3000 or 4000 other aftershocks that occurred in the first few weeks

333
00:27:12,840 --> 00:27:16,320
Were those also occurring in the red zones?

334
00:27:17,520 --> 00:27:19,840
Once again they returned to their model

335
00:27:20,280 --> 00:27:24,480
They set about plotting every single aftershock that rippled out from the Landers

336
00:27:24,600 --> 00:27:29,840
quake and,just like Big Bear,most fell in the red zone

337
00:27:38,720 --> 00:27:44,560
We came away from this experience feeling that Landers had taken a possibility

338
00:27:44,760 --> 00:27:48,680
a possible set of interactions and turned it into a probability

339
00:27:48,960 --> 00:27:53,640
It now looked to us like this kind of earthquake interaction was likely

340
00:27:58,440 --> 00:28:01,080
Landers was a scientific breakthrough

341
00:28:01,600 --> 00:28:06,920
It gave the most dramatic evidence of how one big quake could trigger another

342
00:28:08,080 --> 00:28:12,840
Landers was really a landmark event in giving us this incredible data set

343
00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:18,760
which showed us how different large earthquakes interact and letting us explore

344
00:28:18,920 --> 00:28:21,320
the mechanism of this interaction in detail

345
00:28:21,600 --> 00:28:25,560
It was the best example so far of how the transfer of stress

346
00:28:25,640 --> 00:28:28,000
could trigger a large aftershock

347
00:28:28,520 --> 00:28:33,560
However,it did not show how one event could set off larger earthquakes across

348
00:28:33,720 --> 00:28:38,840
longer periods of time.It did not prove the existence of an earthquake storm

349
00:28:41,280 --> 00:28:45,920
To show this scientists had to test their model on somewhere

350
00:28:46,040 --> 00:28:48,640
even more dangerous than the San Andreas fault

351
00:29:10,960 --> 00:29:15,120
Turkey is in one of the major earthquake zones of the world

352
00:29:16,040 --> 00:29:19,200
Here millions of people live under the threat of one of

353
00:29:19,320 --> 00:29:21,400
the most treacherous faults on the planet

354
00:29:25,600 --> 00:29:30,920
The North Anatolian fault slices through the top of the country for over 1000km

355
00:29:31,560 --> 00:29:35,680
For centuries earthquakes along this fault have torn the region apart

356
00:29:36,280 --> 00:29:41,840
In the last 100 years alone it has claimed the lives of nearly 100,000 people

357
00:29:45,520 --> 00:29:49,120
Seismologist Celal Sengor knows it as well as any

358
00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:54,520
The North Anatolian fault seems to display a cyclic behaviour

359
00:29:55,160 --> 00:29:59,160
It looks as if earthquakes start at the east,they migrate west

360
00:29:59,600 --> 00:30:03,400
then there's a period of quiescence.It starts again migrates west

361
00:30:03,640 --> 00:30:04,960
there's another period of quiescence

362
00:30:07,680 --> 00:30:10,760
This pattern heading from east to west attracted earthquake

363
00:30:10,880 --> 00:30:12,560
hunters from around the world

364
00:30:13,160 --> 00:30:14,560
Among them was Geoff King

365
00:30:16,320 --> 00:30:20,600
He became fascinated by a study of the fault that suggested these earthquakes

366
00:30:20,720 --> 00:30:22,200
might be triggering each other

367
00:30:24,160 --> 00:30:28,240
This study began with an event that happened over 60 years ago

368
00:30:31,480 --> 00:30:38,360
In 1939 a devastating earthquake struck the city of Erzincan in eastern Turkey

369
00:30:40,360 --> 00:30:48,240
The earthquake that occurred in Erzincan in 1939 was the start of a sequence

370
00:30:48,360 --> 00:30:51,840
of earthquakes that passed right along the North Anatolian fault

371
00:30:52,280 --> 00:30:56,800
It was a major event that killed tens of thousands of people

372
00:31:02,600 --> 00:31:05,120
Though there was very little data from the vent

373
00:31:05,200 --> 00:31:09,640
there was enough to make an educated guess as to where the stress had gone

374
00:31:12,160 --> 00:31:16,080
Using the same model that had shown the Big Bear and Landers connection

375
00:31:16,680 --> 00:31:21,040
the red zone produced from Erzincan lit up an area to the west

376
00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:26,800
Tragically three years later in 1942,an earthquake

377
00:31:26,960 --> 00:31:31,120
struck near the town of Tokat.The model seemed to be working

378
00:31:31,480 --> 00:31:38,520
After the Tokat earthquake stress was transferred to the west

379
00:31:38,800 --> 00:31:41,240
The next earthquake was to the west

380
00:31:43,520 --> 00:31:46,920
Then a series of earthquakes struck westward along the fault

381
00:31:47,400 --> 00:31:50,880
the last in 1967 near Adapazari

382
00:31:58,480 --> 00:32:01,440
The model showed that each event had occurred right

383
00:32:01,640 --> 00:32:03,320
in the middle of the red zone

384
00:32:04,480 --> 00:32:07,000
The earthquakes seemed to be triggering each other

385
00:32:07,280 --> 00:32:09,840
like a set of falling dominoes

386
00:32:10,640 --> 00:32:16,120
Following the Erzincan earthquake a series of events zipped

387
00:32:16,240 --> 00:32:21,560
or rather unzipped the fault right the way along its length here

388
00:32:21,720 --> 00:32:25,320
with stress being transmitted from one to the next

389
00:32:25,680 --> 00:32:28,040
in a most spectacular fashion

390
00:32:29,320 --> 00:32:31,480
These events were not aftershocks

391
00:32:32,200 --> 00:32:35,120
and they were separated from each other by years

392
00:32:36,480 --> 00:32:40,000
An earthquake storm appeared to be blowing across the region

393
00:32:45,000 --> 00:32:49,400
but forecasting earthquakes after the event was relatively simple

394
00:32:50,560 --> 00:32:53,600
A better test would be for scientists to use the model

395
00:32:54,040 --> 00:32:57,200
to forecast where the storm would strike next

396
00:32:59,080 --> 00:33:07,640
Our objective was to go from the 1967 earthquake to the west and to the south

397
00:33:07,960 --> 00:33:10,880
and include all the other earthquakes for which we had historical

398
00:33:11,040 --> 00:33:16,360
information  in order to assess where stress had been transferred

399
00:33:16,600 --> 00:33:20,160
and what was the likely earthquake future for those regions

400
00:33:22,280 --> 00:33:28,160
And when he plugged in the data the red zone lit up over the Bay of Izmit

401
00:33:30,400 --> 00:33:33,880
home to nearly half a million people

402
00:33:35,160 --> 00:33:39,840
The red zone was right over Izmit and the Bay of Izmit and we knew

403
00:33:40,040 --> 00:33:43,720
a major fault capable of catastrophic earthquakes

404
00:33:44,120 --> 00:33:46,200
passed right through that region

405
00:33:48,760 --> 00:33:51,400
Geoff and other scientists were so convinced the model

406
00:33:51,560 --> 00:33:54,640
was working papers were published forecasting where

407
00:33:54,800 --> 00:33:56,920
the next earthquake would likely strike

408
00:33:57,400 --> 00:34:03,360
They could not say when,but they spelt out the specific threat to Izmit

409
00:34:04,800 --> 00:34:08,560
A catastrophic earthquake seemed to us inevitable

410
00:34:08,720 --> 00:34:10,400
and this had to be published

411
00:34:10,720 --> 00:34:13,480
This was published in the scientific literature

412
00:34:13,640 --> 00:34:16,640
but then it was also published in the Turkish popular press

413
00:34:17,120 --> 00:34:20,520
the popular scientific journals, even in a newspaper

414
00:34:20,800 --> 00:34:22,440
in the scientific supplement of a newspaper

415
00:34:22,800 --> 00:34:25,480
I must confess even when I read that I said oh wonderful

416
00:34:25,640 --> 00:34:29,400
you know,scientific prediction,but it did not occur to me to say my God

417
00:34:29,600 --> 00:34:31,080
we've got to do something about it

418
00:34:35,480 --> 00:34:38,120
The publication created only a ripple of interest

419
00:34:38,400 --> 00:34:41,920
and for the people of Izmit life continued as normal

420
00:34:43,400 --> 00:34:46,520
Most had no idea that the ground they now walked on

421
00:34:47,000 --> 00:34:49,240
was under extraordinary stress

422
00:34:53,800 --> 00:34:58,080
and then in August 1999 at just past three

423
00:34:58,160 --> 00:35:01,040
in the morning Geoff King's forecast came true

424
00:35:20,000 --> 00:35:25,760
45 seconds later much of the city and the surrounding area lay in ruins

425
00:35:28,320 --> 00:35:32,840
The quake was so huge that buildings collapsed nearly 100km away

426
00:35:36,320 --> 00:35:39,960
Despite the warnings the area was totally unprepared

427
00:35:40,920 --> 00:35:44,640
Fire Chief Emin Pehlivan and his team were just not ready

428
00:35:49,880 --> 00:35:56,560
I could say me and my team we did our best under the circumstances

429
00:35:56,720 --> 00:35:58,560
and I am proud of that

430
00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:05,080
We did a lot

431
00:36:05,760 --> 00:36:08,200
We stretched resources to the limit

432
00:36:09,080 --> 00:36:13,520
but this disaster caught Turkey off-guard

433
00:36:17,720 --> 00:36:20,480
The rescue services had been given neither the equipment

434
00:36:20,680 --> 00:36:23,320
nor the manpower to deal with the disaster

435
00:36:33,680 --> 00:36:36,760
When we pulled out dead bodies or heard about them

436
00:36:37,000 --> 00:36:39,160
it was equally devastating

437
00:36:40,120 --> 00:36:44,800
There were times most of the time, we pulled out more corpses

438
00:36:45,080 --> 00:36:50,160
than survivors and felt completely broken down

439
00:37:04,120 --> 00:37:09,400
Each time we heard through the wireless that someone had been pulled out alive

440
00:37:09,720 --> 00:37:15,000
a man,a woman aged this or that,we felt wonderful

441
00:37:17,880 --> 00:37:21,400
All of us in the headquarters shouted out of joy

442
00:37:21,640 --> 00:37:24,520
as if we had won a victory and hugged each other

443
00:37:31,440 --> 00:37:34,880
Among those trapped was Ömür Kinay

444
00:37:35,200 --> 00:37:38,680
She and her mother had been caught in one of the many collapsed buildings

445
00:37:42,840 --> 00:37:47,280
I tried to make out the voices I knew.I heard babies crying

446
00:37:47,760 --> 00:37:51,560
I was lying on top of my mother.I was trying to hold her hand

447
00:37:52,000 --> 00:37:55,040
talk to her but she didn't respond

448
00:37:57,360 --> 00:37:59,880
This is the very moment of her rescue

449
00:38:00,760 --> 00:38:04,480
She was finally found nearly three hours after the fault had ruptured

450
00:38:05,040 --> 00:38:07,320
but her ordeal was far from over

451
00:38:09,160 --> 00:38:11,920
I warned them when they were digging close to my head

452
00:38:12,320 --> 00:38:14,360
Then they dug the area below

453
00:38:14,920 --> 00:38:18,880
I could move my left hand I managed to get it out through a hole

454
00:38:19,200 --> 00:38:20,760
and they dug around it

455
00:38:22,120 --> 00:38:24,560
They removed the concrete with a crane

456
00:38:25,000 --> 00:38:26,800
removed my mother

457
00:38:27,160 --> 00:38:30,600
My hair was still under the rubble The man started crying

458
00:38:30,800 --> 00:38:34,400
He said we can't get you out my child,your hair is trapped

459
00:38:35,040 --> 00:38:40,840
I said cut it He kept crying and said I can't cut this beautiful hair

460
00:38:47,480 --> 00:38:51,720
Ömür was rushed to hospital knowing nothing of her mother's fate

461
00:38:52,920 --> 00:38:55,080
Her visiting family kept any news from her

462
00:38:58,000 --> 00:39:00,760
I learned about the loss of my mother after about 40 days.

463
00:39:01,720 --> 00:39:05,760
My family couldn't bring themselves to tell me.My aunt was with me

464
00:39:06,120 --> 00:39:07,520
She was the one looking after me

465
00:39:08,320 --> 00:39:10,960
One day I said,I asked her to take my Mum's photo

466
00:39:11,280 --> 00:39:14,720
They didn't even bring me a photo She started crying

467
00:39:15,160 --> 00:39:18,640
My cousin left the room and I realised Mum was dead

468
00:39:29,840 --> 00:39:33,480
The exact number of casualties from the Izmit earthquake is still not known

469
00:39:34,840 --> 00:39:39,320
but some estimates suggest that perhaps 25,000 people died

470
00:39:41,480 --> 00:39:44,120
Hundreds of bodies are still unaccounted for

471
00:39:57,040 --> 00:40:00,680
but for Geoff King, one of the scientists who had made the forecast

472
00:40:01,240 --> 00:40:04,200
the Izmit earthquake was a bittersweet moment

473
00:40:05,320 --> 00:40:06,640
He had been proved correct

474
00:40:07,520 --> 00:40:12,000
but he now realised that use of the model came with enormous responsibility

475
00:40:12,360 --> 00:40:16,520
As the scale of the disaster became clear you know

476
00:40:16,720 --> 00:40:25,200
we were clearly right in our prediction, but this is on the one hand do

477
00:40:25,360 --> 00:40:27,360
you want as a scientist to be right

478
00:40:28,080 --> 00:40:34,320
but on the other hand you hope you're not right because you realise

479
00:40:34,640 --> 00:40:41,000
that the red areas that you calculate represent many deaths

480
00:40:41,280 --> 00:40:43,800
tens of thousands of potential deaths

481
00:40:46,920 --> 00:40:51,000
Now it really did seem that an earthquake storm was heading across Turkey

482
00:40:51,720 --> 00:40:54,440
. It was vital to forecast where it would hit next

483
00:40:56,520 --> 00:41:00,760
Well after the Izmit earthquake we had important new data

484
00:41:00,920 --> 00:41:07,480
I mean we could immediately expand the studies that we were engaged in to see

485
00:41:07,600 --> 00:41:10,520
what would happen next and what was likely to happen next

486
00:41:10,640 --> 00:41:15,560
so following the earthquake we immediately accelerated our work in this area.

487
00:41:18,200 --> 00:41:22,440
Geoff King and his team set to work to try and find where the stress had moved

488
00:41:23,920 --> 00:41:26,640
As they put the new data from the Izmit quake into the computer

489
00:41:27,720 --> 00:41:30,560
an area to the west again beamed red

490
00:41:33,760 --> 00:41:36,320
This time though things were not so straightforward

491
00:41:37,280 --> 00:41:41,520
Izmit had been forecast because scientists knew the exact nature of the fault

492
00:41:41,680 --> 00:41:45,040
running through the area,but now they could not tell

493
00:41:47,200 --> 00:41:51,880
The fault that moved in the Izmit disaster passing under this road.

494
00:41:52,720 --> 00:41:58,960
It then at this point it goes off-shore under

495
00:41:59,080 --> 00:42:03,320
the Marmara Sea and completely disappears

496
00:42:08,160 --> 00:42:11,360
The extent of any danger in this newly stressed red zone

497
00:42:12,080 --> 00:42:15,280
depended on understanding the exact nature of the fault

498
00:42:16,000 --> 00:42:18,880
Before the 1999 Izmit earthquake happened

499
00:42:19,040 --> 00:42:21,200
we knew very little about the Sea of Mamara

500
00:42:22,040 --> 00:42:26,400
The North Anatolian fault we know that enters at one end exists the other

501
00:42:26,520 --> 00:42:29,800
but in-between we really didn't know much more

502
00:42:31,080 --> 00:42:34,680
What made this all the more urgent was the fact that

503
00:42:34,760 --> 00:42:38,040
when they ran the computer model at the edge of their newly plotted

504
00:42:38,120 --> 00:42:40,840
red zone was one of the greatest cities in the world:

505
00:42:48,120 --> 00:42:50,960
Istanbul

506
00:43:09,280 --> 00:43:14,880
With so much at stake it was crucial to understand the fault in intimate detail

507
00:43:17,720 --> 00:43:20,680
Just how big a threat was there to the city?

508
00:43:25,080 --> 00:43:27,360
Soon the Italians,French,Turks and Americans

509
00:43:28,000 --> 00:43:31,160
set about making the fault at the bottom of the Marmara Sea

510
00:43:31,440 --> 00:43:33,440
one of the best known on the planet

511
00:43:35,400 --> 00:43:40,440
The first thing we thought we had to do was to map the sea

512
00:43:40,600 --> 00:43:45,320
to know where the different features on the bottom because

513
00:43:45,480 --> 00:43:49,880
in a sea the ocean is not active like on land

514
00:43:50,000 --> 00:43:53,200
so you preserve the trace of faulting in a much better way

515
00:43:55,400 --> 00:43:58,800
Gradually the fault began to reveal its secrets

516
00:44:01,520 --> 00:44:06,120
Mud cores taken from the sea-floor revealed the huge quakes

517
00:44:06,400 --> 00:44:08,280
that had struck the area in the past

518
00:44:09,720 --> 00:44:12,680
and the seismic signals indicated that

519
00:44:13,200 --> 00:44:15,800
the whole area was still very much alive

520
00:44:16,440 --> 00:44:19,960
Other results showed just how vast the faulting systems was

521
00:44:20,600 --> 00:44:27,240
We,we found this long valley that cuts through the whole two-third

522
00:44:27,440 --> 00:44:31,000
the western two-third of the Mamara Sea a spectacular valley

523
00:44:31,200 --> 00:44:35,680
that we did not expect and that was obviously a very active fault

524
00:44:36,520 --> 00:44:39,880
Although a picture of the fault's activity was emerging

525
00:44:40,400 --> 00:44:44,040
the exact structure of the fault remains unclear

526
00:44:49,120 --> 00:44:54,200
but what was known was that an active faulting systems stretching nearly

527
00:44:54,360 --> 00:45:00,200
the length of the Mamara Sea sat a mere 20 kilometres from Istanbul

528
00:45:00,640 --> 00:45:04,400
A big rupture along this fault whatever its precise nature

529
00:45:04,680 --> 00:45:07,600
could be a massive disaster

530
00:45:11,120 --> 00:45:18,280
The earthquake that we expect would happen close to Istanbul will be as big

531
00:45:18,720 --> 00:45:27,280
or bigger,than Izmit. Izmit killed 20,000 or even 30,000 people

532
00:45:28,000 --> 00:45:34,560
The population density around Iz,Istanbul is ten times greater

533
00:45:34,840 --> 00:45:41,680
The scale of the catastrophe to a European city is almost unimaginable

534
00:45:50,120 --> 00:45:54,240
What makes this forecast so worrying is that many buildings

535
00:45:54,440 --> 00:45:57,560
have not been built to withstand a disaster of this kind.

536
00:46:01,960 --> 00:46:04,120
We are now in one of the poorest parts of Istanbul

537
00:46:04,600 --> 00:46:07,560
You can imagine that the buildings around us are not of the best quality

538
00:46:07,760 --> 00:46:11,160
When the earthquake hits parts of these buildings will fall down

539
00:46:11,400 --> 00:46:16,200
people will be trapped in them.Some of the people will be able to get out

540
00:46:16,640 --> 00:46:20,080
Some of these streets have natural gas pipelines going under them

541
00:46:20,320 --> 00:46:24,280
They will burst right. You'll have fires rising

542
00:46:25,400 --> 00:46:30,800
People will try to run away,they'll be ruined,they will try to clamber up

543
00:46:31,080 --> 00:46:34,000
Rescue units will try to reach them.It will be complete

544
00:46:34,160 --> 00:46:36,120
mayhem in Istanbul if that happened

545
00:46:37,440 --> 00:46:41,120
No one can yet tell when the earthquake storm will strike

546
00:46:41,800 --> 00:46:47,160
The forecast simply cannot do this.It could be in 100 years time

547
00:46:48,080 --> 00:46:50,360
it could be tomorrow

548
00:46:51,960 --> 00:46:56,240
The scientists have at least identified where it is likely to hit next

549
00:46:57,520 --> 00:46:59,880
This means there is still time to prepare

550
00:47:01,200 --> 00:47:03,840
The stress has been building up in Istanbul

551
00:47:04,560 --> 00:47:06,640
We know there's going to be an earthquake

552
00:47:06,920 --> 00:47:10,080
We don't really know when there's going to be an earthquake

553
00:47:10,400 --> 00:47:12,280
but we know it'll be a major earthquake

554
00:47:12,840 --> 00:47:18,560
Buildings can be improved, construction can be modified

555
00:47:18,960 --> 00:47:22,400
emergency services can become better organised

556
00:47:22,840 --> 00:47:26,480
There are very many things that can be done and this will bring

557
00:47:26,640 --> 00:47:31,320
the death toll down by ten times, or even 100 times

558
00:47:32,000 --> 00:47:36,880
and it is completely possible and it is economically feasible

559
00:47:40,240 --> 00:47:42,320
So the forecast comes with hope

560
00:47:43,320 --> 00:47:45,920
There is a chance this time that the people of Turkey

561
00:47:46,080 --> 00:47:50,000
can be prepared where the disaster strikes