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Apr 22, 2024
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>> probably the bank of england but not by much. tom: you actually think the boe is going to move rates more? ok, within that context. in terms of the sequencing, how are you thinking about the sequencing of cuts? you buy into the view that the ecb goes in june. where does the fed land? where does the boe land? >> the bank of england -- in august the first time. inflation makes more progress. >> not until december for the fed in terms of the first cut coming through that. in the commodity currencies base, we have obviously looked at the run-up in oil in the last couple of weeks. it has come off given the lack of geopolitical catalyst over the weekend. in the commodity currencies base, how were you thinking about the role that china may play if there is an inflationary move there? >> that is a good question. we have seen some good growth rates from china recently which is probably the advantage for currencies for the dollar and currencies that are largely in relationship with the chinese economy. farther than that, i would not expect
>> probably the bank of england but not by much. tom: you actually think the boe is going to move rates more? ok, within that context. in terms of the sequencing, how are you thinking about the sequencing of cuts? you buy into the view that the ecb goes in june. where does the fed land? where does the boe land? >> the bank of england -- in august the first time. inflation makes more progress. >> not until december for the fed in terms of the first cut coming through that. in...
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Apr 17, 2024
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the inference from that is the bank of england waits for the fed to cut rates. our economists don't think that is right. they think the bank of england could cut in june and by more than the market expects. they are still concerned about inflationary pressures in the u.k.. let us look at the governor andrew berry. he seems to side with our economists in saying that the bank of england has a mind of its own. >> it is rather different between europe and the u.s.. i think there is more demand led ablation pressure that we are seeing. we are still seeing the extension of the process out of the -- the big supply shocks. course the governor referring to that demand led inflation that is present in the u.s. compared to the u.k.. marcus is currently seeing a first rate cut from the boe in september. we get a softer cpi print this morning. couldn't bring that forward to june? request that is under 10 minutes away from that inflation data. i want to thank you very much indeed. stay tuned for our interview with the form u.k. chancellor. plenty more coming up on bloomberg.
the inference from that is the bank of england waits for the fed to cut rates. our economists don't think that is right. they think the bank of england could cut in june and by more than the market expects. they are still concerned about inflationary pressures in the u.k.. let us look at the governor andrew berry. he seems to side with our economists in saying that the bank of england has a mind of its own. >> it is rather different between europe and the u.s.. i think there is more...
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Apr 12, 2024
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looking ahead to former fed chair's review of the bank of england forecasting models. how this changes the game for investors. we are joined from bloomberg economics. a pleasure to have you. let's start with the data. gdp figures, does it suggest stagnation if we throw recession off the table? anna: for today we are expecting a flat reading of gdp and modest growth of .1%. ratings might not sound that positive but they confirm u.k. economy has turned a page after the recession we had. now the question is whether this is a rebound. or whether you will endanger inflation progress. we think we're looking at .2% growth rate for the first quarter and that is how it will stay. and a lot of drivers sustaining growth. and then on the second question, it is a good change from two years of stagnation into one year of .2 growth. growth will not be strong, it will run below u.k. supply growth. kriti: feels like the u.k. is not on the same path. forget the u.s., but the ecb is doing its thing. you have three central banks diverging. talk about this review. perhaps the dismissal of
looking ahead to former fed chair's review of the bank of england forecasting models. how this changes the game for investors. we are joined from bloomberg economics. a pleasure to have you. let's start with the data. gdp figures, does it suggest stagnation if we throw recession off the table? anna: for today we are expecting a flat reading of gdp and modest growth of .1%. ratings might not sound that positive but they confirm u.k. economy has turned a page after the recession we had. now the...
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Apr 8, 2024
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the governor of the bank of england has already it did it will require retiring the boe charts. the economic outcomes are different variables. in the u.k. we don't have a dot plot unlike the fed. i don't know what you call this talk of mountains. seems like a dot plot to me. it seems like they will be replaced with scenarios. this is the sort of situation you have if the economy does x versus y. we are waiting for the new deputy governor to take a seat on the monetary positive commission. she does not join the mpc is a letter on. another big question to the report is whether the make inlet will continue to use the market path for interest rates as the conditioning assumption for its forecast. he created a lot of confusion for saying there will be a recession but recession was conditioned on rates following the market path which the bank did not endorse. there are confusing. they managed to even confuse the u.k. newspapers. we await that report on friday. we got india is vying to take china's engineering crown. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> welcome back to bloomberg daybreak: europe.
the governor of the bank of england has already it did it will require retiring the boe charts. the economic outcomes are different variables. in the u.k. we don't have a dot plot unlike the fed. i don't know what you call this talk of mountains. seems like a dot plot to me. it seems like they will be replaced with scenarios. this is the sort of situation you have if the economy does x versus y. we are waiting for the new deputy governor to take a seat on the monetary positive commission. she...
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Apr 5, 2024
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easing cycle for the bank of england compared to some of the other central banks. that's why potentially the sterling could continue to face some pressure. haslinda: great insights. charu chanana, head of fx strategy at saxo, she expects the rate cut to come either in june or july. a headline out of china, where janet yellen is visiting for the second time in several months. yellen now seeking "healthy," in her own lord, seeking healthy -- in her own word, seeking healthy china ties, worrying about overcapacity. she is expected to speak with her counterparts in china. yellen this morning making her way to china. and we will bring you the very latest from the ground from our correspondent. are exclusive interview with the president of global satellite mutations company viasat. we discussed their business strategy for the aipac region and their recent acquisition. but first, are exclusive with the argentinian president as he strikes a more pragmatic tone on china after previously calling the country an assassin. that is next. keep it here with us. this is bloomberg.
easing cycle for the bank of england compared to some of the other central banks. that's why potentially the sterling could continue to face some pressure. haslinda: great insights. charu chanana, head of fx strategy at saxo, she expects the rate cut to come either in june or july. a headline out of china, where janet yellen is visiting for the second time in several months. yellen now seeking "healthy," in her own lord, seeking healthy -- in her own word, seeking healthy china ties,...
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Apr 17, 2024
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the bank of england should be cutting before the fed. no doubt about it area the market still doesn't have that price, it has to be pulled forward with sterling weakening and you can see the euros sterling higher in that story. we pulled forward on the ecb but not the bank of england in the same way. jonathan: you talk about parity on the euro-dollar, are you actively looking for those levels to come back again? lee: not yet. i got called out for being too bullish on the dollar last year, i thought we would go further and we reverse. i think that the dollar over the next month, couple of months, it is going to struggle to make gains across the board. we have taken so much out of the fed this year, it's hard to take a lot more out. maybe we can in q3, things could change dramatically, but right now you won't see it. it's going to be more idiosyncratic, moving on the dollar, rather than in q2 where we have rate cuts elsewhere. 110 is a long way on that basis. i think that we get down to 120 on the euro, maybe down to the 103 level. quite a
the bank of england should be cutting before the fed. no doubt about it area the market still doesn't have that price, it has to be pulled forward with sterling weakening and you can see the euros sterling higher in that story. we pulled forward on the ecb but not the bank of england in the same way. jonathan: you talk about parity on the euro-dollar, are you actively looking for those levels to come back again? lee: not yet. i got called out for being too bullish on the dollar last year, i...
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Apr 19, 2024
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we have been hearing about the bank of england governor and releasing inflation remains us of a challenge. on the earnings front, procter & gamble and american express, a touch on the u.s. consumer that remains relatively strong according to recent data, and today we get continuation of the imf and world bank meetings as well in the u.s. we will be listening out for a new sound as they address economic inflationary and central-bank challenges. almost one billion people in india begin dividing today in the world's largest ever general election. it will last over six weeks. we are live in the city. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." let's turn the focus to india where the largest democracy had into the polls in an election said to last six weeks. i minister modi is hoping to emerge with a third five-year term. as haslinda amin has been looking at this for us, but let's bring in our correspondent on the ground outside the station in a southern city. what is the mood on the ground ahead of the start of this mammoth vote for india? >> the mo
we have been hearing about the bank of england governor and releasing inflation remains us of a challenge. on the earnings front, procter & gamble and american express, a touch on the u.s. consumer that remains relatively strong according to recent data, and today we get continuation of the imf and world bank meetings as well in the u.s. we will be listening out for a new sound as they address economic inflationary and central-bank challenges. almost one billion people in india begin...
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Apr 18, 2024
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maybe with the ecb, the bank of england cutting before the federal reserve will open up additional opportunities. in our flex income portfolios we have a global approach and we try really take advantage of wherever they may be. >> we talk about how credit markets are priced for perfection. what are the risks out there? how do you factor in geo-political risks in the middle east? >> yeah, so when we say that typically, we look at corporate bond spresd which are quite tight vs. history. your upside to some extent is capped and then if there is an exception, a bad risk aversion like we saw over the last few days, you can see the corporate bond spreads widen quite a bit. we think it is important to remain relatively defensive within credit given where we are in the monetary cycle. be patient in corporate bonds. wait for better entry-pounds in the future. the geo-political risks are very difficult to price for aside from being very well diversified. they might crop up again and give investors a better opportunity in the future. >> how about the opportunities in this part over the world? >> in asia, w
maybe with the ecb, the bank of england cutting before the federal reserve will open up additional opportunities. in our flex income portfolios we have a global approach and we try really take advantage of wherever they may be. >> we talk about how credit markets are priced for perfection. what are the risks out there? how do you factor in geo-political risks in the middle east? >> yeah, so when we say that typically, we look at corporate bond spresd which are quite tight vs....
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Apr 11, 2024
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bank of england, doj -- boj, or ecb? george: boj first come ecb second, boe third. we have looked at the ecb as making policy mistakes. i think they are trying to do proactive. i think they will have to ease before the fed. that is a challenge for them. to sit here and do nothing is not the right course of action. jonathan: do think there is any ability to go further beyond the june rate cut? george: at a minimum what could have been his, you want to backpedal, this could enter into an environment where central banks ease and skip meetings and try to calibrate in between. slow down the process and not changing her to every other inflation report. jonathan: 152 was the line in the sand of intervention and here we are at 153. steve said a hot print would mean fighting market fundamentals, that is a difficult intervention proposition. given where the fundamentals are and how strong the tide is against the boj, do you think they can intervene in the fx market anymore? george: the challenge is for the better part of 18 months as the fed was hiking and all of these eases
bank of england, doj -- boj, or ecb? george: boj first come ecb second, boe third. we have looked at the ecb as making policy mistakes. i think they are trying to do proactive. i think they will have to ease before the fed. that is a challenge for them. to sit here and do nothing is not the right course of action. jonathan: do think there is any ability to go further beyond the june rate cut? george: at a minimum what could have been his, you want to backpedal, this could enter into an...
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Apr 16, 2024
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wages softening a little bit, which, of course, willing be welcomed by the bank of england. 7:00 p.m. u.k. time, bloomberg will be speaking to jeremy hunt. his reaction to the data. likely political questions as well for the chancellor. that's 7:10u.k. time. ericsson dropping at 6:00 a.m. u.k. time and we are switching focus to the luxury space later today. we're going to get lvmh sales as well so a key gauge on the health of the luxury sector and follow that firm earnings news from goldman sachs. the of can others follow suit in terms of the pickup they see. the earnings story being fleshed out later today. you can get a round-up of the stories you knew need in today's edition of daybreak. get a deep dive there. coming up, israel vows to respond to iran's attack over the weekend. does the west call for restraint? we get the latest next. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: welcome back to bloomberg daybreak: europe. we're going to check oil is gold for you right now. the pricing action about the back of comments from israeli officials reiterating that they will, at some point at least respond
wages softening a little bit, which, of course, willing be welcomed by the bank of england. 7:00 p.m. u.k. time, bloomberg will be speaking to jeremy hunt. his reaction to the data. likely political questions as well for the chancellor. that's 7:10u.k. time. ericsson dropping at 6:00 a.m. u.k. time and we are switching focus to the luxury space later today. we're going to get lvmh sales as well so a key gauge on the health of the luxury sector and follow that firm earnings news from goldman...
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Apr 26, 2024
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a bank of england cut possibly as soon as june. those details come out at 7:00 a.m. u.k. time, so rounding up the story when it comes to the bank earnings picture, and when it comes to the liquor story we have remy conteui expected to benefit from a pickup in their chinese markets and potentially european market as well as the u.s. market looks soft. year to date that stock is down 20%. we keep an eye on sale numbers from remy contreui. earnings coming up from exxon mobil later today after the run-up in oil prices. year to date that stock is up 21%. those earnings out later in the u.s.. get a roundup of the stories you need to know in today's edition of daybreak. terminal subscribers go to dayb. problems are mounting between economies even as the relationship shows some signs of stabilizing. more on that visit next. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." china's top diplomat warned antony blinken problems are mounting between the world's largest economies as the u.s. and threatens beijing with
a bank of england cut possibly as soon as june. those details come out at 7:00 a.m. u.k. time, so rounding up the story when it comes to the bank earnings picture, and when it comes to the liquor story we have remy conteui expected to benefit from a pickup in their chinese markets and potentially european market as well as the u.s. market looks soft. year to date that stock is down 20%. we keep an eye on sale numbers from remy contreui. earnings coming up from exxon mobil later today after the...
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Apr 17, 2024
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in our view, it is quite likely the european central bank and the bank of england will actually do a little more in terms of rate cuts this year compared to the fed. they will also likely move slightly ahead of the fed in starting the easing cycle. against that backdrop we think it is quite likely that at least in the next few months, the dollar continues to receive a bit of support against the other currencies. and certainly a tricky geopolitical backdrop tends to boost prices, which by the way is rather helpful for the u.s. compared to other developed markets. that will also be another factor driving the currency higher. so in the near term we are positive on the dollar. annabelle: the flipside of that of course is weakness we see in other currencies. the japanese yen is standing out, very close to 155 at this point. is that he still -- is that still a level you are tracking for intervention? homin: we in the market are basically moving the goal posts around. i have to acknowledge that we don't even have a firm consensus as to what the trigger is for the japanese finance ministry t
in our view, it is quite likely the european central bank and the bank of england will actually do a little more in terms of rate cuts this year compared to the fed. they will also likely move slightly ahead of the fed in starting the easing cycle. against that backdrop we think it is quite likely that at least in the next few months, the dollar continues to receive a bit of support against the other currencies. and certainly a tricky geopolitical backdrop tends to boost prices, which by the...
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Apr 15, 2024
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i do not think there is a deal to stop the bank of england and others from using policy. you are seeing differentiation in terms of the gdp and inflation data. these countries have gone through significant slowdowns and technical recession. i think there is not a great deal to stop them moving ahead. i do not think it will be a concern for the ecb. it is different that they have expressed concerns. not the level only but there have been concerns. it is not at all obvious. jawboning in japan. keep an eye on that. i do not really see anything significant in terms of currency markets that will hold them back. but i think greater differentiation across countries , it makes sense for us to position for that in fx markets and rate markets. jonathan: does that mean additional dollar strength? >> given the path for the ecb and given valuation, something like australia and canada, they expressed their differentiation using interest-rate my. in the case of europe, baseline is not quite as attractive but the position with currencies like the euro, the swiss franc -- a broad european
i do not think there is a deal to stop the bank of england and others from using policy. you are seeing differentiation in terms of the gdp and inflation data. these countries have gone through significant slowdowns and technical recession. i think there is not a great deal to stop them moving ahead. i do not think it will be a concern for the ecb. it is different that they have expressed concerns. not the level only but there have been concerns. it is not at all obvious. jawboning in japan....
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Apr 22, 2024
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jonathan: ben bernanke, do you find that curious that the bank of england turned to him to come up with a new communication regime when he was responsible for leading this communication regime coming out of the great financial crisis? lisa: there is a lot to digest. annmarie: i think because yellen is tied up? jonathan: that is where we are right now. let's talk about foreign-exchange. this from kit juckes. our forecast looks for a fall below1.05 but not parity. at the moment, europe is doing everything that everyone expects it to do, not a great deal of things. we are stuck between 1.06 and 1.07. lisa: the fact that we are not closer to parity tells you a lot of things. basically you are looking at the potential for no cuts this year, so by didn't we see a bigger move? the fact that we haven't, maybe this is stability, equilibrium we were just talking about. jonathan: europe going to europe? lisa: it has been a confusing bunch of weeks. even if you have conviction, you are bullish, you are not buying. that is the tone of the morning. jonathan: you have offended a lot of people. under s
jonathan: ben bernanke, do you find that curious that the bank of england turned to him to come up with a new communication regime when he was responsible for leading this communication regime coming out of the great financial crisis? lisa: there is a lot to digest. annmarie: i think because yellen is tied up? jonathan: that is where we are right now. let's talk about foreign-exchange. this from kit juckes. our forecast looks for a fall below1.05 but not parity. at the moment, europe is doing...
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Apr 8, 2024
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the expectation this year was the fed would go first, but now it looks like the ecb and bank of england might cut rates sooner than the fed, so i think it makes sense to go along bonds and other g3 countries as opposed to treasuries. jonathan: sooner and further at the ecb? do you think they will take rates lower than the federal reserve? >> probably not. labor costs are starting to rise. inflation is a concern. i was surprised they suggested or started communicating they would cut rates as early as the june meeting. now the markets say they will cut in june but might not have to cut that frequently after. it is a communication game at this point. jonathan: when they start to talk about the ultimate destination, how much higher is that destination than the previous rate cutting cycles? >> the destination looks higher. we raised our forecast for europe higher from around 2.5%. it is the same in the u.s.. i do not think the rate is going to be close to the long run fed funds rate, which is 2.5%. when the cycle ends, i think the fed funds rate might end up around 3% to 3.5% and they path g
the expectation this year was the fed would go first, but now it looks like the ecb and bank of england might cut rates sooner than the fed, so i think it makes sense to go along bonds and other g3 countries as opposed to treasuries. jonathan: sooner and further at the ecb? do you think they will take rates lower than the federal reserve? >> probably not. labor costs are starting to rise. inflation is a concern. i was surprised they suggested or started communicating they would cut rates...
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Apr 26, 2024
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paul: steven englander, global head of g10 fx research at standard chartered bank, thank you for joining us. still to come, china's largest autoshow is underway. the industry's biggest names showing off their hottest new designs. we will be live at the beijing autoshow up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ paul: china's largest autoshow is back in beijing. some of the biggest names in the industry showcasing their extravagant new models. our chief north asia correspondent stephen engle spoke to byd's chief designer about the inspiration behind their cars. >> technology and design, they need to be one firm unit. we are also very, as designers and as byd, and our customers are very happy because the latest technology, they are thought from the very beginning to offer the opportunity to realize the proportions. it depends on technology. you want to do it and you cannot sometimes because the pace is not adapted. in our case, we are so lucky that we have wonderful platforms. stephen: this is wolfgang egger's latest offering from the joint venture byd has with him m mercedes. the car is the g9-gt. y
paul: steven englander, global head of g10 fx research at standard chartered bank, thank you for joining us. still to come, china's largest autoshow is underway. the industry's biggest names showing off their hottest new designs. we will be live at the beijing autoshow up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ paul: china's largest autoshow is back in beijing. some of the biggest names in the industry showcasing their extravagant new models. our chief north asia correspondent stephen engle spoke to byd's...