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Apr 12, 2024
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the way the bank of england communicates. i had a chance to speak to the former bank of england. >> i think it will partly because it shows the transparency with which the bank of england and governor speaks to all of us, media and the public, admitting that the forecast did not work well. i think they probably took a lesson from what happened about 18 months ago when they produced a forecast that showed a two-year recession caused by the rapid rise in interest rates. now that was headlines in the financial times and it was on radio and television. that itself conditions expectations in the country. they have to be careful of what they say and how they say it. i suspect not only the governor, but other mpc members are more careful and they just need to rehearse a little bit more. >> they have a communication problem more than a forecasting problem. >> they have a communication problem, but it is closely linked to forecasting. they use the forecast as the bedrock of their communication and i think it doesn't deserve to be used
the way the bank of england communicates. i had a chance to speak to the former bank of england. >> i think it will partly because it shows the transparency with which the bank of england and governor speaks to all of us, media and the public, admitting that the forecast did not work well. i think they probably took a lesson from what happened about 18 months ago when they produced a forecast that showed a two-year recession caused by the rapid rise in interest rates. now that was...
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Apr 17, 2024
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what the bank of england had forecast. so essentially it's not a downward is up priors to that. so she's looking at the merits of that may rate cut. i think in general, the central banks are to some extent in the same book. you're here facing the situation where the disinflationary process is bumpy. it's not fully secured. so you want to go it slow and go at the measured pace. at the same time, i think for both the uk and the ecb, it's clear that the rate cuts are coming. the fed there's a little bit more of a weight still here. >> very clear. thank you for the conversation. >>> all right, coming up here on the show, adidas makes a surprise announcement following a stronger than expected first quarter. we'll have all the details coming up right after this break. hi. i'm wolfgang puck when i started my online store wolfgang puck home i knew there would be a lot of orders to fill and i wanted them to ship out fast that's why i chose shipstation shipstation helps manage orders reduce shipping costs and print out shipping labe
what the bank of england had forecast. so essentially it's not a downward is up priors to that. so she's looking at the merits of that may rate cut. i think in general, the central banks are to some extent in the same book. you're here facing the situation where the disinflationary process is bumpy. it's not fully secured. so you want to go it slow and go at the measured pace. at the same time, i think for both the uk and the ecb, it's clear that the rate cuts are coming. the fed there's a...
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Apr 19, 2024
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if the ecb and bank of england has made similar moves and articulate the differences with europe and the u.s., that gives european bonds better opportunity to decouple and provide stimulus that europe requires with the weak economic growth and low inflation rate. >> daniel, yesterday, we heard from the new york fed president making comments there is no rush to cut rates on top of that, suggesting that if inflation were to increase once again that the central bank should be prepared to hike rates. mentioning the word hike is interesting. we have projections from lagarde that we will see the yield reaching 5% on the ten-year yield. how likely is that given this commentary from the fed? >> it is feasible. we touched 4.7%. it is feasible given the information on the data coming out of the states. we don't see it going further beyond that. the cost of funding for the u.s. fed federal deficit is high and getting higher that isa concern among central banks and politicians about the cost of funding any further north than 5%. that's why we need to see decoupling between europe and the u.s. eu
if the ecb and bank of england has made similar moves and articulate the differences with europe and the u.s., that gives european bonds better opportunity to decouple and provide stimulus that europe requires with the weak economic growth and low inflation rate. >> daniel, yesterday, we heard from the new york fed president making comments there is no rush to cut rates on top of that, suggesting that if inflation were to increase once again that the central bank should be prepared to...
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Apr 9, 2024
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> the last meeting we got from the bank of england is a move to the dovish side. you no longer have members voting for a hike. that move will shift. you have seen the inflation come down dramatically. a year ago, no market participant was looking for cuts from the bank of england. that changed because the inflation outlook has come down. actually in the second quarter, you expect inflation to undershoot the bank of england. you could get cuts as early as june. that's what the economy is telling you. >> i don't think anyone is expecting any further hikes from the boj soon. what do you think they might do old intervention front, s skyla? we play have been getting more jaw boning from the governor there. does the break necessitate intervention or not necessarily? >> i think the struggle is the intervention which is them talking down the currency. you can have fx reserves to supporting the yield target. you can't continue selling. there is a limited amount of fx. history tells you that doesn't get you a sustained appreciation in dollar/jpy. they are trying to hold the
> the last meeting we got from the bank of england is a move to the dovish side. you no longer have members voting for a hike. that move will shift. you have seen the inflation come down dramatically. a year ago, no market participant was looking for cuts from the bank of england. that changed because the inflation outlook has come down. actually in the second quarter, you expect inflation to undershoot the bank of england. you could get cuts as early as june. that's what the economy is...
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Apr 16, 2024
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that could be a positive for those expecting the bank of england moving with the rate cut this summer. clearly that data is not bringing any sort of positive strength to the ftse 100 at this stage. when it comes to the sector breakdown, this is the picture. we have here at the top with the telecoms which are down .20%. one stock we are tracking here is ericsson. they had better than expected results this morning. that is helping at this stage when you see all of the sector in the red at this stage. basic resources is the worst performer at this stage down 2.7%. here is a lot to do with the weaker metal prices at this stage. >> silvia, thank you very much. >>> turning attention now to asia. the session there is closing sharply lower after new data from china. jp ong is with us. jp, a mixed report from china. >> reporter: absolutely, frank. terrible tuesday with the stocks tumbling in asia. we see the middle east tensions weighing on stocks. the china gdp print is now showing it is growing faster up 5.3% year on year. if you look at the march industrial production and retail sales, that
that could be a positive for those expecting the bank of england moving with the rate cut this summer. clearly that data is not bringing any sort of positive strength to the ftse 100 at this stage. when it comes to the sector breakdown, this is the picture. we have here at the top with the telecoms which are down .20%. one stock we are tracking here is ericsson. they had better than expected results this morning. that is helping at this stage when you see all of the sector in the red at this...
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Apr 23, 2024
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. > >> just as a reference point for viewers, i looked at the potential rate cuts from the bank of england, frank. they are pricing in a 75% chance of seeing the first cut in the month of august. let's see how the data will continue to pan out. with the latest data in mind, i want to take you to the equity markets in europe. we are seeing the major boards trading in the green. we have seen the ftse 100 crossing above the 8,000 mark hitting the fresh record high. it is up by about .30%. we have seen a lower sterling and weaker sterling and investors piling in on the market which contributed to the momentum with the uk equities. we are seeing more significant moves to the upside over in spain with the main market up 1.1%. we are seeing the euro moving up .20% compared to the u.s. dollar at 1.06. we know the u.s. dollar has been moving higher compared to the other currencies. that is actually changing today as we are seeing investors considering what might happen when it comes to ecb cuts as well. of course, we are keeping a close eye on the usd and the japanese yen. a lot of speculation that
. > >> just as a reference point for viewers, i looked at the potential rate cuts from the bank of england, frank. they are pricing in a 75% chance of seeing the first cut in the month of august. let's see how the data will continue to pan out. with the latest data in mind, i want to take you to the equity markets in europe. we are seeing the major boards trading in the green. we have seen the ftse 100 crossing above the 8,000 mark hitting the fresh record high. it is up by about .30%....
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Apr 4, 2024
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bank of england. i want to take you to the action from brussels. we are now due to hear the nato secretary-general jens stolt stoltenberg. >> also to discuss a long-term financial pledge or commitment from nato allies. we welcome voluntary contributions, but we need to rely less on voluntary and depend on commitments. these are issues we will discuss. good to see you. welcome to nato. >> thank you, jens. happy birthday to nato and all allies. i came to convey words of congrat lulations to the longes military alliance in world history. thank you for the forward looking approach to help sustain financing and support to ukraine. i came here against the background of continued unprecedented missile and drone attacks of russia against ukraine. just tonight, the city of kharkiv was hit with drones. unfortunately, russia destroys the ukraine economy and kills ukrainians and destroys our cities as well which fits the russian strategy to eliminate ukraine from the map. i don't want to spoil the party. my main
bank of england. i want to take you to the action from brussels. we are now due to hear the nato secretary-general jens stolt stoltenberg. >> also to discuss a long-term financial pledge or commitment from nato allies. we welcome voluntary contributions, but we need to rely less on voluntary and depend on commitments. these are issues we will discuss. good to see you. welcome to nato. >> thank you, jens. happy birthday to nato and all allies. i came to convey words of congrat...
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Apr 30, 2024
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i think the bank of england will do the same. interestingly, not just what it does for the fixed income market, but what it potentially does for inflation in the uk because if rates are higher in the u.s., that means rates are more attractive in the u.s. you could get the secondary imported inflation act because of the impact on the currencies. credi >> we mentioned we're in the middle of earnings season here in the u.s. and in europe. automakers under pressure after the reports. what are your expectations? we see the ftse 100 hitting new highs every day. 3% or 4% in the u.s. indices as well. >> the ftse 100 hit the all-time high, but it has taken a long time. the last year, we have seen difficult months for the s&p 500, but the last 12 months, we had several all-time highs. japan at an all-time high after four decades. the ftse 100 is stronger on. we feel earnings are patchy than in the u.s. we have seen great results from financials. we expect it to be positive. we are mindful inflation is a factor. >> you are dodging a bit. do
i think the bank of england will do the same. interestingly, not just what it does for the fixed income market, but what it potentially does for inflation in the uk because if rates are higher in the u.s., that means rates are more attractive in the u.s. you could get the secondary imported inflation act because of the impact on the currencies. credi >> we mentioned we're in the middle of earnings season here in the u.s. and in europe. automakers under pressure after the reports. what are...
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Apr 16, 2024
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three rate cuts for the year in the case of the bank of england, probably a similar picture. when it comes to bonds where we have a reasonable amount of conviction is the bonds in the economy which are more interest rate sensitive like u.s. and australia and canada are those where we see performance with the economies having cutting cycles which are deeper than the fed, but the market at the moment is not pricing that it is pricing a similar picture for the economies. we think there is an opportunity there. >> i want to bring the conversation back to europe. in some of the analysis, you made the comments that europe faces a lot of long-term headwinds, but germany is exposed. when you think of the benchmark bund, how does that play with the rest of the bond market? >> i think when it comes to europe, if you look at bunds, this morning, we are at 2.25 and you compare to australia or u.s. or canada with bigger opportunities, you would see european duration being fair here you have nearly 4% in the u.s. uk is similar at 3.50% or so for the ecb, you have a terminal rate price of 2
three rate cuts for the year in the case of the bank of england, probably a similar picture. when it comes to bonds where we have a reasonable amount of conviction is the bonds in the economy which are more interest rate sensitive like u.s. and australia and canada are those where we see performance with the economies having cutting cycles which are deeper than the fed, but the market at the moment is not pricing that it is pricing a similar picture for the economies. we think there is an...
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Apr 22, 2024
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of england. more divergence with the euro/dollar commentary. let's look at the eyo dollar/ye. there is an issue with japanese authorities will intervene at the 1.55 mark. the key this week is the bank of japan meeting. investors are questioning what sort of hikes we might get from the bank of japan this area. i said hikes. that's the case for the bank of japan. i want to take you to the bond market. this is showing you what is happening with the central bank commen comm commentary. the yield is 2.52. this is the sentiment in europe and actually, i want to share this stat with you. the spread between the ten-year bund and treasury hit 220.9 basis points last week. that was the highest we have seen since november of 2019. it is important to compare as we he see the divergence with the comments from the ecb and from the fed. when it comes to u.s. futures, they suggest it is a positive start on wall street today. this is slightly different from what we had seen at the end of last week when the majori
of england. more divergence with the euro/dollar commentary. let's look at the eyo dollar/ye. there is an issue with japanese authorities will intervene at the 1.55 mark. the key this week is the bank of japan meeting. investors are questioning what sort of hikes we might get from the bank of japan this area. i said hikes. that's the case for the bank of japan. i want to take you to the bond market. this is showing you what is happening with the central bank commen comm commentary. the yield is...
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Apr 10, 2024
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potentially it will see a bank cut from the bank of england as well, but all in all as investors have put it, it's a positive message from tesco. >> they have a very optimistic outlook, but they also cited rising competition in the uk as well. what airy are they facing competition in? >> they're still the number one player, but maybe we can share their reaction for the past five years. they've had to do a lot of work when it comes to fending off competition from new players such as aldi, and they have managed to do that so far. they have addressed some of the concerns with the cost of living prices by cutting their own brands, the price on their own brands significantly, but, of course, let's see how this will pan out. we know it is a very crowded space, and, of course, inflation is still a problem. it has receded, but it's not clear. >> and they've really singled out cocoa, right? coffee, much to everyone's chagrin. and potatoes as well. there's areas where inflation is still very sticky. i also thought it was interesting. they said, look, over the last couple of years, we've all bee
potentially it will see a bank cut from the bank of england as well, but all in all as investors have put it, it's a positive message from tesco. >> they have a very optimistic outlook, but they also cited rising competition in the uk as well. what airy are they facing competition in? >> they're still the number one player, but maybe we can share their reaction for the past five years. they've had to do a lot of work when it comes to fending off competition from new players such as...
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Apr 30, 2024
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who else would not be pleased if they put a hike on the table, the ecb, bank of japan, the bank of england, the bank -- all these central banks moving towards cuts. fed goes the other way. >> in addition to the ones that have cut like peru and argentina again. >> basically -- >> meantime still to come a few hours away from amazon's results. shares a big outperformer on the ar. we'll get you ready after a break. what is cirkul? cirkul is the fuel you need to take flight. cirkul is the energy that gets you to the next level. cirkul is what you hope for when life tosses lemons your way. cirkul, available at walmart and drinkcirkul.com. ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com. we put our heart into celebrating moms. we are local farmers, bakers,
who else would not be pleased if they put a hike on the table, the ecb, bank of japan, the bank of england, the bank -- all these central banks moving towards cuts. fed goes the other way. >> in addition to the ones that have cut like peru and argentina again. >> basically -- >> meantime still to come a few hours away from amazon's results. shares a big outperformer on the ar. we'll get you ready after a break. what is cirkul? cirkul is the fuel you need to take flight. cirkul...
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Apr 17, 2024
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the bank of england is ready to ease. uk and europe look like they'll get a little more growth so actually there's more things out in the macro environment that are positive, positive is the wrong word, but, you know, more in favor of inflation is going to stay a bit sticky, so, you know, the slower economy in china was certainly beneficial to a lower rate of inflation, and i think the surprise is going to go the other way a little bit, so data dependent is important, sara. if we do see a weakening u.s. economy, i can see the reason for easing, but, boy, we haven't seen any sign of weaker u.s. economy. >> bob, given your history, of course, having run a large financial institution. just love to get your take on earnings season that you've been through, particularly with the bigger banks in which you competed against, the goldmans, morgans, mixed picture this earnings season, jpmorgan, stock went down dramatically after earnings and bank of america not great but goldman and morgan quite strong quarters. what do you think?
the bank of england is ready to ease. uk and europe look like they'll get a little more growth so actually there's more things out in the macro environment that are positive, positive is the wrong word, but, you know, more in favor of inflation is going to stay a bit sticky, so, you know, the slower economy in china was certainly beneficial to a lower rate of inflation, and i think the surprise is going to go the other way a little bit, so data dependent is important, sara. if we do see a...