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Aug 26, 2022
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steve, did you make any moves here today? what would you expect o be doing first thing monday morning? >> i did not make any moves today. i didn't want to get sucked in. i was actually going to make a few sales on things that i still have profits in, and i wanted to buy some of the chinese related names, due to that regulatory ruling that we just saw, but let me give you more of a macro view. if you look at the low, we closed on the lows today, so you want to see them opening up. you do not want to see them come out too strong. you want to see them a little bit weak around the opening. then you want to look at what happened today. the 50 day is 3996 and the s&p cash. keep an eye on that level. if we break that level, then we can go much lower, but i would look at today's low, so 4057 in the cash and the s&p and use that as your benchmarks. for tim, how about you? your advice for monday morning for people that look at the market today and feel a little spooked. >> it was a scary day, and what i say often during days like this
steve, did you make any moves here today? what would you expect o be doing first thing monday morning? >> i did not make any moves today. i didn't want to get sucked in. i was actually going to make a few sales on things that i still have profits in, and i wanted to buy some of the chinese related names, due to that regulatory ruling that we just saw, but let me give you more of a macro view. if you look at the low, we closed on the lows today, so you want to see them opening up. you do...
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Aug 18, 2022
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steve, thanks a lot. >>> let's bring in our halftime headliner. joining us now, victoria green thank you so much for being here >> happy to be here, frank, though it seems a little feisty today. >> it is a little feisty i know you are down in texas, you do it bigger in texas so we expect big energy on what is going on but i want to start off with the fed minutes. what was your takeaway, did you see any trends that you think will move the markets? >> no, i think everybody grasped on to at some point we'll ease he didn't say 2023, he didn't give a sign post, just said at some point and i think the doves are a little in front of themselves right now just because inflation didn't go up from an already bad number doesn't mean inflation is good you have one month it was stable yes, we've seen gasoline prices keep coming down, but it is not like we're in a good inflationary picture look at what is happening in the uk, look at food, look at shelter. so i tend to agree a little bit more with steve that the consumer is under pressure and they are spending o
steve, thanks a lot. >>> let's bring in our halftime headliner. joining us now, victoria green thank you so much for being here >> happy to be here, frank, though it seems a little feisty today. >> it is a little feisty i know you are down in texas, you do it bigger in texas so we expect big energy on what is going on but i want to start off with the fed minutes. what was your takeaway, did you see any trends that you think will move the markets? >> no, i think...
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Aug 18, 2022
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so,. >> hey, steve. >> a couple things to piggyback. the other issue is they are not base -- they are based on a derivative which decays. so you have the fee of the etf, it resets every day. and you have the decay of the derivative that it is based on. so, just to piggyback what was said, it has to be a day event you are trading, but it doesn't come with a disclaimer that if you hold it longer than a day, you are actually decaying your money. >> well you are right. so, there's almost reverse compounding that's built into this, steve. however, let's just say there's companies that have had inverse and leverage. he tfs out this, for leverage and etfs and we know the fcc is looking at this. there's their's complex product rule out there under review. and they would like to be able to put some guardrails for average investors buying in the brokerage account, or make them go through some type of training or make them go through more disclosure or things like that. ultimately, tough give credit to the average investors to do their due diligen
so,. >> hey, steve. >> a couple things to piggyback. the other issue is they are not base -- they are based on a derivative which decays. so you have the fee of the etf, it resets every day. and you have the decay of the derivative that it is based on. so, just to piggyback what was said, it has to be a day event you are trading, but it doesn't come with a disclaimer that if you hold it longer than a day, you are actually decaying your money. >> well you are right. so, there's...
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Aug 15, 2022
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steve, thank you. >> pleasure. >> steve liesman joe, do markets have it wrong in that case we're completely offsides in the way people are positioned >> if you're buying the market because you expect the federal reserve is going to make some dramatic pivot, that's the wrong reason to do it. maybe the market is signaling that there is credibility in the effort of the federal reserve, that maybe the enemy, which is inflation and the effort to combat it is actually working. now, i understand the price to be paid for that is an economic contraction. that's clear we understand that, and the last area of the economy really that has to come down would be the housing market, and we're beginning to see the signal there as well. but i think we -- the market, if it's going to have a sustained rally, it's got to have that sustained rally because there's an acknowledgment or we're integrating the belief that as you look forward, inflation is going to come down, and it's going to come down by a continued commitment on the part of the federal reserve, as steve said, to take the slack out of the economy by
steve, thank you. >> pleasure. >> steve liesman joe, do markets have it wrong in that case we're completely offsides in the way people are positioned >> if you're buying the market because you expect the federal reserve is going to make some dramatic pivot, that's the wrong reason to do it. maybe the market is signaling that there is credibility in the effort of the federal reserve, that maybe the enemy, which is inflation and the effort to combat it is actually working. now,...
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Aug 25, 2022
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steve grasso coming up on "power lunch. we will speak to the governor ofec oak on the push to attract workers as it looks to bomece the epicenter for the future of transportation "power lunch" will be back in two. if you have this... and you get this... you could end up with this... unexpected out-of-pocket costs. so if you're on medicare, or soon to be, consider this. an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan from unitedhealthcare. medicare alone doesn't pay for everything. and what it doesn't pay for, like deductibles and copays, could add up to thousands of dollars. medicare supplement plans help by paying some of what medicare doesn't... and making your out-of-pocket costs a lot more predictable. call unitedhealthcare now and ask for your free decision guide. medicare supplement plans also let you see any doctor. any specialist. anywhere in the u.s. who accepts medicare patients. take charge of your health care today. consider adding this. call unitedhealthcare today about an aarp medicare supplement plan. >>> welcome
steve grasso coming up on "power lunch. we will speak to the governor ofec oak on the push to attract workers as it looks to bomece the epicenter for the future of transportation "power lunch" will be back in two. if you have this... and you get this... you could end up with this... unexpected out-of-pocket costs. so if you're on medicare, or soon to be, consider this. an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan from unitedhealthcare. medicare alone doesn't pay for everything. and...
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Aug 18, 2022
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steve? >> it's a huge issue it's possible that results in diminished support for ukraine, but it's a one of those from an economic and egeopolitical standpoint of can you pay me now or pay me later. >> let me ask you. we had am n energy analyst on earlier who's been right many times. she thinks even though you have wti pulling back slightly you could see those numbers go higher again the reason our numbers have come down is largely because of energy prices coming down. if that happens, what does that mean for the fed what does that mean for the markets? steve, we'll start with you and go around the horn. >> so it is interesting. it's unclear to me it seems like russian oil has found a way to get into the market and to the extent that it's going to india and china at lower cost, by the way, than international commodity prices, it's not cheelear to me that th supply situation is as dire as those make it out to be. the fed had a really interesting comment yesterday that i think is worth remembe
steve? >> it's a huge issue it's possible that results in diminished support for ukraine, but it's a one of those from an economic and egeopolitical standpoint of can you pay me now or pay me later. >> let me ask you. we had am n energy analyst on earlier who's been right many times. she thinks even though you have wti pulling back slightly you could see those numbers go higher again the reason our numbers have come down is largely because of energy prices coming down. if that...
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Aug 17, 2022
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steve, it is always good to see you. i don't know if you just heard ann berry talking about walmart and why she likes it she basically looked at the consumer market as bifurcated. low-end stores or bargain, discount stores represented by the likes of walmart or at the extreme end the dollar stores and then luxury and she thinks there's room for both of them to succeed in the current environment and that the vulnerable stores are the ones that are kind of in the middle and are neither fish nor fowl. agree or disagree? >> agree, tyler and it's good to speak to you i think ann was right that the middle is a tough place to be and there are some parts of the middle that can do well and the high end and other end will play nicely if you look at a year on year basis we're seeing 10%, 11% growth so the consumer is still spending they're spending differently, and i think that's the important part here which is they changed their behavior during the pandemic and everyone got caught flat footed and you saw it in the inventory numbe
steve, it is always good to see you. i don't know if you just heard ann berry talking about walmart and why she likes it she basically looked at the consumer market as bifurcated. low-end stores or bargain, discount stores represented by the likes of walmart or at the extreme end the dollar stores and then luxury and she thinks there's room for both of them to succeed in the current environment and that the vulnerable stores are the ones that are kind of in the middle and are neither fish nor...
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Aug 4, 2022
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that's steve cohen. those people who have worked with and worked for and amassed money for and that's where they go, scott. so, yeah. >> i hear you. i guess, part of my point was, you can't tell me that you bought these stocks today and then tell me tomorrow that you are negative on the market. this is somewhat of a signal to me that you think there has got to be something left in this move or you wouldn't move into these names now. >> that's correct. i didn't buy today. i didn't buy them yesterday. i bought them over the last couple of weeks and have also added to gsl after the quarter. phenomenal blowout quarter. >> i'll get to those later. don't frontload the whole show, weiss. i can't see her face so i can't give you dirty looks so you understand what's going on. don't front run the whole thing. joe has something for you. speak >> steve, i don't know if you watched jim last night on mad money, but i think you made some excellent points. in terms of positioning with oil, how much of the move that we'v
that's steve cohen. those people who have worked with and worked for and amassed money for and that's where they go, scott. so, yeah. >> i hear you. i guess, part of my point was, you can't tell me that you bought these stocks today and then tell me tomorrow that you are negative on the market. this is somewhat of a signal to me that you think there has got to be something left in this move or you wouldn't move into these names now. >> that's correct. i didn't buy today. i didn't...
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Aug 4, 2022
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i'm okay. >>> welcome back breaking news out of the fed steve liesman has it steve? >> hey, jon. thanks the fed president in a meeting with reporters just reiterating her call that she sees rates going up above 4%. that is the fed funds rate something she has said in the june economic projections. it is interesting she holds to it now even though the market has come down. the market has a peak rate, at least the futures market does, of 340 she said a lot of data between now and september when she has to do it again and she'll be looking at that and changing it maybe front loading it more. she went on to say that again, she could alter that rate and the fed could pause in the second half of 2023 after raising rates. she said the u.s. is not in a recession, but the risks are rising back to you. >> you >> steve, this is what the market is doing. the s&p just climbed up a little higher on this is this fighting the fed it looks like fighting the fed >> you know, the market, the equity market has a mind of its own and it is interesting that the bond market heard what fed officials were
i'm okay. >>> welcome back breaking news out of the fed steve liesman has it steve? >> hey, jon. thanks the fed president in a meeting with reporters just reiterating her call that she sees rates going up above 4%. that is the fed funds rate something she has said in the june economic projections. it is interesting she holds to it now even though the market has come down. the market has a peak rate, at least the futures market does, of 340 she said a lot of data between now and...
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Aug 25, 2022
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let's let josh respond to you, steve. go ahead >> sometimes i feel like i'm in an amnesia ward and i'm the only one that remembers how this stuff actually goes down like i think the commentary coming, anytime anyone from the fed speaks we should pay attention. let me just clarify what i meant by that. what i'm trying to say is, historically, it hasn't been fruitful for investors to make bets ahead of jackson hole that they then would have to live with as though that were the reason they made the bet that is what i'm really saying, steve. i feel like i'm the only person that remembers how this really works. so two potential things happened we come away thinking it is 50 or we come away thinking it' 75 we don't actually know tomorrow unfortunately. but, like, let's say he sounds more dovish than you thought the market could go up huge or down huge. then the commentary all over the financial media is going to be, well, the market doesn't like that they started to sound dovish they think the fed is getting afraid of the slowd
let's let josh respond to you, steve. go ahead >> sometimes i feel like i'm in an amnesia ward and i'm the only one that remembers how this stuff actually goes down like i think the commentary coming, anytime anyone from the fed speaks we should pay attention. let me just clarify what i meant by that. what i'm trying to say is, historically, it hasn't been fruitful for investors to make bets ahead of jackson hole that they then would have to live with as though that were the reason they...
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Aug 1, 2022
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steve kovac joins us with more on that. >> hey, contessa not pretty indeed. we heard from apple, alphabet, microsoft, amazon and meta and all of the companies warning on weak spotses and jennifer elias reporting that alpha's ceo told employees to double down on productivity and that's echoing what we've heard from executives in meta and microsoft in recent weeks and i even asked tim cook about this last week and he told me he'll be deliberate in hiring due to inflation the message here, do more with what you already got microsoft told us about cost-cutting in small and medium businesses and assigned more tightening could be to come. also warning of, quote, deteriorating pc market that started in june, but apple told the opposite story saying demand is still strong for the high-end consumer with apple expecting iphone sales to keep, w working despite the soft environment microsoft alone said it took $100 million hit last quarter due to the ad market softening and meta continues to struggle competing for ad dollars against tiktok finally, execs from all these c
steve kovac joins us with more on that. >> hey, contessa not pretty indeed. we heard from apple, alphabet, microsoft, amazon and meta and all of the companies warning on weak spotses and jennifer elias reporting that alpha's ceo told employees to double down on productivity and that's echoing what we've heard from executives in meta and microsoft in recent weeks and i even asked tim cook about this last week and he told me he'll be deliberate in hiring due to inflation the message here,...
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Aug 26, 2022
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you got the answer, steve. appreciate it. talk to you again soon. >>> let's continue the conversation with david zerbos and peter. welcome to you both. david, you heard us talking, steve and i. it is somewhat interesting to see the way the stock market has reacted to this. i wonder if it's just a matter of the stock market had built in or was building in a greater prospect of a soft landing and now they have to reduce that a little bit i know you were getting a little cautious about the possibility for further equity upside given what the fed was up to here coming into this week. what strikes you about the market reaction today? >> so i really agree with a lot of what steve said i think the comments that he took, the excerpts that he took from jay's speech were really the important ones these guys are not in any hurry to make a turn or a pivot. and i think they have been quite steadfast in that statement. there was some wishful thinking on the stock market side but more importantly, mike, i think the stock market when we were
you got the answer, steve. appreciate it. talk to you again soon. >>> let's continue the conversation with david zerbos and peter. welcome to you both. david, you heard us talking, steve and i. it is somewhat interesting to see the way the stock market has reacted to this. i wonder if it's just a matter of the stock market had built in or was building in a greater prospect of a soft landing and now they have to reduce that a little bit i know you were getting a little cautious about...
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Aug 5, 2022
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steady as she goes, this is one to own in this environment. >> steve? >> capri holdings, it is trading about $50. this is the strength of the luxury brands, we will see that this coming week. they are about a debt reduction story, they have a buyback in place. they also source in euros and sell in dollars. that is the right side of the fx trade. you will be surprised, the stock is down 25% because it was thrown into, if we are going to have a recession the luxury will not do well. history has shown us the opposite of that. michael kors is not discounting as much as they normally would, versace is doing well and i'm looking for good things from capri next week. >> they took the time to right size operations. thank you all. coming up, place your bets, draftkings with the best week since 2020 , stay tuned. >>> and we will have a special at the top of the hour, "inside jobs." we dive into the jobs reports and what the number says about the state of the economy ♪ ♪ the thing that's different about a vrbo vacation home. you always have the whole place to
steady as she goes, this is one to own in this environment. >> steve? >> capri holdings, it is trading about $50. this is the strength of the luxury brands, we will see that this coming week. they are about a debt reduction story, they have a buyback in place. they also source in euros and sell in dollars. that is the right side of the fx trade. you will be surprised, the stock is down 25% because it was thrown into, if we are going to have a recession the luxury will not do well....
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Aug 25, 2022
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steve? >> reporter: hey, carl, yes. jim bullard striking a pretty hawkish tone saying he thinks inflation could prove to be more consistent and that the fed needs to bring rates up now quickly to combat the current inflation problem that we have >> i like the front loading. i like the idea that you get the rate increases in earlier rather than later we've got kpinflation right now. we've got a strong labor market right now. it seems like the right time to get to the right neighborhood for the funds rate. >> reporter: president patrick harker said he hadn't decided what to do in september, he could go either way, 50, 75 and wouldn't figure out until he sees the inflation data for august but 50 basis points is still a hefty hike >> i want to see the next reading and then decide. >> next inflation reading? >> yeah. that said, i want to put this in a bit of a history cal context since '93 the fed has raised 83 times. 75 of those were under 50 basis points a 50 basis point move is still a substantial move. >> reporter: okay,
steve? >> reporter: hey, carl, yes. jim bullard striking a pretty hawkish tone saying he thinks inflation could prove to be more consistent and that the fed needs to bring rates up now quickly to combat the current inflation problem that we have >> i like the front loading. i like the idea that you get the rate increases in earlier rather than later we've got kpinflation right now. we've got a strong labor market right now. it seems like the right time to get to the right...
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Aug 25, 2022
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steve, here we go. all right, 243,000 on initial jobless claims definitely better than expected, about 10,000 better than expected at least until we see a revision, it's 7,000 less than 250,000 in the rear view mirror. 243,000 would be the best level since the week of july 22nd. on continuing claim, 1,415,000 and see kquencely sequencely be. and july 15 was under 1.4 million. now let's get to gdp our second look at second quarter gives back a tenth down .6 instead. that's a tenth less with regard to the negative aspects of the contraction with regard to that quarter, and it follows, of course, minus .9 in the previous quarter. the consumption number ramped up this is really unusual the economists had it right. it ramped up from 1% to 1.5. that's a nice jump now the price index going wrong way. 8.9% on the price index. 8.9% now that is a new high watermark. 8.7 from june was the old high watermark. that is the highest level since 1981 and it could be for a while, because 1981 goes all the way up to 11% i
steve, here we go. all right, 243,000 on initial jobless claims definitely better than expected, about 10,000 better than expected at least until we see a revision, it's 7,000 less than 250,000 in the rear view mirror. 243,000 would be the best level since the week of july 22nd. on continuing claim, 1,415,000 and see kquencely sequencely be. and july 15 was under 1.4 million. now let's get to gdp our second look at second quarter gives back a tenth down .6 instead. that's a tenth less with...
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Aug 5, 2022
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steve? >> jon, thanks job growth unexpectedly surging in july. bolster the case at the fed for continued hefty rate hikes jeffries is writing -- forget recession. the market narrative should be shifting to stronger for longer. set to accelerate. this could cause real wages, income spending at gdp to accelerate sharply in the third quarter. the data suggests a bit part of the employment rebound is employers getting back to the level they were at before the pandemic take a look at some of these numbers. here's where the jobs are. it's a bit below where it was in february 2020, but we've had a lot of population growth construction still did well, despite what's happening in the housing and mortgage markets and local education, here are the numbers. i'm not going to real you all the numbers, but they're all well above, 528 jobs looking for 250, and the revisions were in the positive way, up 28,000. that's the important thing hourly average wages up more than expected. so powell has said -- fed chair jay powell has said pretty consistently he believes
steve? >> jon, thanks job growth unexpectedly surging in july. bolster the case at the fed for continued hefty rate hikes jeffries is writing -- forget recession. the market narrative should be shifting to stronger for longer. set to accelerate. this could cause real wages, income spending at gdp to accelerate sharply in the third quarter. the data suggests a bit part of the employment rebound is employers getting back to the level they were at before the pandemic take a look at some of...
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Aug 3, 2022
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liesman has been talking to fed officials and he joins us now. >> hi, steve what are you hearing >> good afternoon. pushing back director against market pricing that sees the fed cutting rates next year. not only did jim bullard think that it's higher than the market priced in, but he said it should be higher for longer. >> i think we'll probably have to be higher for longer in order to get the evidence that we need to see that inflation's actually turning around on all dimensions and in a convincing way coming lower and not just a tick lower here or there. >> san francisco fed president mary daly out saying i don't think we should ratchet up rates really hard and we'll bring them down quickly to lower rates just a few months from now and richmond's thomas barkin saying he's committed to doing what it takes to bring inflation down and he expects better growth in the second half than 2022 and the economy's currently in recession. he and other fed officials insisting it's hard to call a recession right now with strong job growth >> that is the thing and everyone comes back on that cal
liesman has been talking to fed officials and he joins us now. >> hi, steve what are you hearing >> good afternoon. pushing back director against market pricing that sees the fed cutting rates next year. not only did jim bullard think that it's higher than the market priced in, but he said it should be higher for longer. >> i think we'll probably have to be higher for longer in order to get the evidence that we need to see that inflation's actually turning around on all...
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Aug 30, 2022
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but steve hit on all of the points this is not a mainstream market, especially not with what meta is going to be coming out with in october, the project cambria had set which is aimed at higher end gamers or those looking to develop for the ar and vr platform that meta wants people to build for this metaverse. the big thing that we need to look at here is how is meta at making hardware? they've had a hit -- maybe hit is a subjective word -- with the quest 2, meta quest 2, whatever their a calling it now, but this is more advanced technology and needs to blend vr and ar and as steve mentioned a step into the ar realm expected to have color pass through so you can actually see color in the real world around you, but that overlays some virtual objects the jury is still out how can meta still deliver and they need to control the hardware and software platform as they go into the future. >> what we're talking about, sort of further off vision of the metaverse. there are instances where you can see it sort of in maybe better effects in roblox and mine craft which aren't looking at headsets
but steve hit on all of the points this is not a mainstream market, especially not with what meta is going to be coming out with in october, the project cambria had set which is aimed at higher end gamers or those looking to develop for the ar and vr platform that meta wants people to build for this metaverse. the big thing that we need to look at here is how is meta at making hardware? they've had a hit -- maybe hit is a subjective word -- with the quest 2, meta quest 2, whatever their a...
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Aug 2, 2022
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>> steve, thanks important data, making this economic picture a little bit clearer. steve liesman. let's get back to uber that stock is up, boy, about 15%, after reporting better than anticipated revenue for the second quarter the numbers driven primarily by a recovery in the mobility business that's ride sharing, which was up 57% year over year. and a big headline, uber says it's now cash flow positive, even if it is still reporting a significant net loss cnn dara khosrowshahi joined "squawk on the street" earlier this morning on how the current macro environment is hitting their business take a listen. >> we're looking to see if inflation is having any kind of effect on the business are our food customers trading down, eating cheaper kind of food zero evidence of that. we're watching it very closely the most obvious effect on inflation seems to be to get more drivers on to the platform at that point for us >> guidance for q3, also coming in above estimates, carl some really interesting reaction to earnings. i mean, uber, of course, which we're talking about now, but also pinteres
>> steve, thanks important data, making this economic picture a little bit clearer. steve liesman. let's get back to uber that stock is up, boy, about 15%, after reporting better than anticipated revenue for the second quarter the numbers driven primarily by a recovery in the mobility business that's ride sharing, which was up 57% year over year. and a big headline, uber says it's now cash flow positive, even if it is still reporting a significant net loss cnn dara khosrowshahi joined...
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Aug 26, 2022
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. >> steve kovach. >>> let's bring in the verge editor in chief neli patel, good to see you what is the most important strategic trend happening right now in -- i'm not going to just say gaming, mobile and app stores are part of that, this metaverse nonsense we're talking about less and less, but it was getting pushed a few months ago as part of that too. >> well, first, i want to point out, and steve's talking trash on twitter, i'm wearing a cooler jacket most importantly in gaming, though, the big trend is where the money is moving. gaming was on track to become $191 billion business, people think it will contract to $188 billion. the piece of the pie that's growing is microtransactions games are free to play and you buy a lot of stuff in the games. fortnite, free to get it, lots of transaction makes all the money for epic what you're seeing from all these companies is right now you can buy madden i buy madden every year for $75. it is basically a roster update, but there's tons of transactions inside of it so if you're looking at a cloud a base like amazon luna or microsoft's game pa
. >> steve kovach. >>> let's bring in the verge editor in chief neli patel, good to see you what is the most important strategic trend happening right now in -- i'm not going to just say gaming, mobile and app stores are part of that, this metaverse nonsense we're talking about less and less, but it was getting pushed a few months ago as part of that too. >> well, first, i want to point out, and steve's talking trash on twitter, i'm wearing a cooler jacket most importantly...
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Aug 17, 2022
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steve, a up can will of questions here jim, you want to kick it off >> hey, steve. this is the- yin to your yang, you know that. we talk a lot about this fed meeting is so important or these fed minutes are so important what if i told you these are probably the least important minutes simply because the fed has said they're going to be data dependent maybe they could come out in the minutes and say, no, that's not what we said, but if that's what the minutes said, okay, they're going to be data dependent, let's see what the data shows. >> i would ask myself, jim, if you were at home as a viewer would you believe the guy with the tie or the guy without the tie? that's the more important question to ask. i don't have a high bar to get over evidentially here, with evidence you have to listen to all of the fed speak out there. a true accounting would happen at the meeting, but i think the fed tailors them for messaging we will pay attention to it. i don't think they're the most important minutes we have ever had before we have a lot of fed speak coming up next week at j
steve, a up can will of questions here jim, you want to kick it off >> hey, steve. this is the- yin to your yang, you know that. we talk a lot about this fed meeting is so important or these fed minutes are so important what if i told you these are probably the least important minutes simply because the fed has said they're going to be data dependent maybe they could come out in the minutes and say, no, that's not what we said, but if that's what the minutes said, okay, they're going to...
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Aug 25, 2022
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steve kovac with a preview steve? >> reporter: first of all, gross merchandise value, that's the total value of the transactions being done through affirm. it was about $4 billion last quarter so we're expecting to see growth there the better affirm does and then transactions costs, this huge expense every quarter for affirm guiding to up to $355 million and well over a billion for the entire fiscal year and finally, broadly speaking, any insight into the consumer like retailers and payment companies this earnings season, where is the consumer at? is there a pullback in consumer spending and what kind of consumer spending and then finally just looking forward in about a month or so, jon, we'll get apple's apple pay later. going to be built in, every single iphone that has apple pay and it's a huge business for apple, really digging into the wallet and affirm is this single feature whereas this is more of a broader ecosystem on the iphone they will have to compete with >> steve, thanks and the ceo at new street adviser
steve kovac with a preview steve? >> reporter: first of all, gross merchandise value, that's the total value of the transactions being done through affirm. it was about $4 billion last quarter so we're expecting to see growth there the better affirm does and then transactions costs, this huge expense every quarter for affirm guiding to up to $355 million and well over a billion for the entire fiscal year and finally, broadly speaking, any insight into the consumer like retailers and...
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Aug 8, 2022
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we will go quickly to guy then steve grasso. it affects the fed and the fed pushes the market around. how do you see inflation right now, coming down to 7% and that still really high. >> and that is probably what we will have. i'm with jim and have been with him for a while in terms of use. it's a long way away from two and it ain't getting there anytime soon and a lot of the rally predicated on the misguided belief that somehow the fed will pivots and they are not because inflation remains hot. if you're buying stocks on the fact that the fed will reverse, you should be selling them because they are not. >> i think it is a supply-chain issue. used car prices have never been the same price as new-car prices and i think that should tell every other commodity and the cti will miss to the downside track. >> i will be driving grasso's gremlin. speaking of inflation, when clean energy etf getting bumped and the options pit and what direction that trade the global mean energy atf. it's still early and bit coin is off to the races. wil
we will go quickly to guy then steve grasso. it affects the fed and the fed pushes the market around. how do you see inflation right now, coming down to 7% and that still really high. >> and that is probably what we will have. i'm with jim and have been with him for a while in terms of use. it's a long way away from two and it ain't getting there anytime soon and a lot of the rally predicated on the misguided belief that somehow the fed will pivots and they are not because inflation...
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Aug 15, 2022
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from beijing >> reporter: good morning, steve. taiwan strait tensions are flaring up as it appeared that they he were easing after speaker pelosi's visit cons congressional delegation led by ed markey started today. they met with the foreign minister as well as other political and business leaders on a two-day trip. beijing's response is very angry. the foreign ministry threatened unspecified counter measures the military is staging more drills near taiwan this as the defense ministry accused the u.s. of stirring up opportunities for more confrontation. the chinese appear to be breaking with tradition. congressional visits have been a relatively routine part of the u.s. and china and taiwan visit. pelosi's trip was not standard because she is in line with the presidency this looks more typical which seems to suggest that beijing is concerned and looking for ways to cut off more connections between taiwan and the rest of the world diplomatically guys >> eunice, does china feel it made its point the last time around can we expect an
from beijing >> reporter: good morning, steve. taiwan strait tensions are flaring up as it appeared that they he were easing after speaker pelosi's visit cons congressional delegation led by ed markey started today. they met with the foreign minister as well as other political and business leaders on a two-day trip. beijing's response is very angry. the foreign ministry threatened unspecified counter measures the military is staging more drills near taiwan this as the defense ministry...
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Aug 18, 2022
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steve? >> reporter: kelly, thanks very much st. louis fed president jim bullard saying he is leaning toward a 75-basis point rate hike at the september meeting. this flies in the face of some of the dovish takes that have been out there both on the minutes yesterday and in response to the pivot that was perceived from the chairman at the press conference last week so the issue is this this is not dramatically different from where bullard has been all along he still seems to be -- by the way this is a "wall street journal" interview that was done he still seems to be in line with the idea of 3.75 to 4% by the end of the year. this is close to where the market is. if you look at the fed rate outlook, kelly, the market is at 3.50 bullard is at 3.75 to 4% you still have, what, another 100 or so to go in the next two meetings that could be 250 he's more aggressive than the overall committee but not necessarily more aggressive where the market is. there's been this 50, 75 it's interesting, kelly. i do not see much of a change in the prob
steve? >> reporter: kelly, thanks very much st. louis fed president jim bullard saying he is leaning toward a 75-basis point rate hike at the september meeting. this flies in the face of some of the dovish takes that have been out there both on the minutes yesterday and in response to the pivot that was perceived from the chairman at the press conference last week so the issue is this this is not dramatically different from where bullard has been all along he still seems to be -- by the...
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Aug 26, 2022
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steve liesman is in jackson hole for more on the fed chair's stance today steve? >> tyler, thanks very much, and i am joined by a special guest g gita who we have known as the chief economist for the imf and that's a move up or sideways either way, you were in the room today when chair powell was speaking did you hear such a hawkish tone from him >> chair powell appropriately came across as being firm and resolute about bringing inflation down and making sure that inflation expectations don't anchor and that was an important point and he said it would take time and that he sees the rates staying at close to 4% for most of 2023 so i don't need people to jump the gun about rate cuts and so on at this point >> gita you've been around quite a bit, and i don't remember a fed chair or central banker talking about pain on the way. what did it signal to you? >> what it signaled is recognizing that there are tradeoffs in recognizing and bringing inflation down. >> there will be short term pain and if you don't bring inflation down durably then there will be much more longe
steve liesman is in jackson hole for more on the fed chair's stance today steve? >> tyler, thanks very much, and i am joined by a special guest g gita who we have known as the chief economist for the imf and that's a move up or sideways either way, you were in the room today when chair powell was speaking did you hear such a hawkish tone from him >> chair powell appropriately came across as being firm and resolute about bringing inflation down and making sure that inflation...
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Aug 3, 2022
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did that do it, steve? >> a lot of talk on the call about foreign exchange headwinds and shares are turning negative since they delivered the mixed results. revenue light at $4.29 billion. epps solid at $19 adjusted. gross bookings surging 38% with ceo glenn fogel saying it would have been higher say for the foreign exchange headwinds. and cfo said increase in flight bookings offset the foreign exchange headwinds. on guidance the company is expecting record revenue but warning about a 12% hit to revenue because of foreign exchange and they are talking a little bit about how to get others on the call, buying trips through buy now pay later and other payment options. this is the same story we heard with airbnb and marriott. no longer buying pelotons and air friers. people are getting out in the world. tune in to sidewalk box tomorrow morning. you will have mr. fogel on to talk about the second quarter results. >> groundbreaking show every morning. >> i heard of it, it's good. >> 6:00 a.m. to 9:00 a.m. thank y
did that do it, steve? >> a lot of talk on the call about foreign exchange headwinds and shares are turning negative since they delivered the mixed results. revenue light at $4.29 billion. epps solid at $19 adjusted. gross bookings surging 38% with ceo glenn fogel saying it would have been higher say for the foreign exchange headwinds. and cfo said increase in flight bookings offset the foreign exchange headwinds. on guidance the company is expecting record revenue but warning about a 12%...
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Aug 10, 2022
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all three of you, i should say michael darda and steve liesman. rick santelli has the results of the ten-year auction >> it went well. let's go through it. 35 billion ten-year notes, the second leg, three-year notes were yesterday, 2.755 is the auction yield, and it's a big below where the one issue was trading. all the metrics were pretty good b-plus, and i think the most stellar feature of today is the fact there was so much buying coming into this auction is testament that not only the markets, but, of course, who is behind the message of the markets are investors. investors have been more correct in my opinion than many of the analysts and the economists. they gone along with this move and they have gone along with the move with regard to interest rates being well below some of their peak closing yields from the 14th of june kelly, back to you. >> all right a b-plus, 275 on the ten-year. rick, thank you very much. >>> coming up, etfs focus on single stocks splashing into the market one name in particular getting a lot of attention we'll tell y
all three of you, i should say michael darda and steve liesman. rick santelli has the results of the ten-year auction >> it went well. let's go through it. 35 billion ten-year notes, the second leg, three-year notes were yesterday, 2.755 is the auction yield, and it's a big below where the one issue was trading. all the metrics were pretty good b-plus, and i think the most stellar feature of today is the fact there was so much buying coming into this auction is testament that not only the...
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Aug 10, 2022
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>> it was a big yardage play, i'll say that much i have steve liesman to my right. i'm sure he's going it key off everything i'm saying. i don't want to get too carried away, but this does matter here's why it has been literally a year and a half since you've had a cpi report, frank, come in better than expectations. meaning lower than expectations. think about that a year and a half that you haven't been disappointed in the cpi. that's a breathtakingly long period of time thank joe in my philadelphia office for giving me that data, by the way you don't normally see economists and the analyst community get it that wrong for that long. it's an indication that we're in a brave new world post-pandemic. we see it many ways but one of which is the prediction of inflation has become very hard possibly, we'll see that pendulum sweep to the other direction. joe, this is to your point about sentiment. if you now had next month's cpi, and we've just gotten the first reading for this month, but if you got next month's cpi coming in better than expectations, maybe you can lay a
>> it was a big yardage play, i'll say that much i have steve liesman to my right. i'm sure he's going it key off everything i'm saying. i don't want to get too carried away, but this does matter here's why it has been literally a year and a half since you've had a cpi report, frank, come in better than expectations. meaning lower than expectations. think about that a year and a half that you haven't been disappointed in the cpi. that's a breathtakingly long period of time thank joe in my...
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Aug 26, 2022
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we'll bring that you to, as you might expect, live steve liesman, any thoughts going in >> they've done a remarkable job making us feel gloomy, that the people who want to hire shouldn't hire because 2023 will be very bad. it's actually very effective i'm not being facetious. it's a very effective way to talk the economy down and perhaps stop the willy-nilly price increases rather than just say, look, there's going to be a storm coming to you in 2023, so why don't you docaddress it accordingly. a lot of companies are not hiring >> to go back to the storm analogy, which takes me back to jamie dimon, remember that week? >> don't sit, don't stand, all that no he's offering a bottle of 1942 to newman. >> you're going to have to explain all the different references one was to a story about people coming back to the office. the other is working at newman in which he was very involved. >> the reason i say that -- >> say that wwhat i don't know what you just said. >> one day he says everything is great and the next day he says everything is horrible i don't which jamie dimon, i'm taking him off
we'll bring that you to, as you might expect, live steve liesman, any thoughts going in >> they've done a remarkable job making us feel gloomy, that the people who want to hire shouldn't hire because 2023 will be very bad. it's actually very effective i'm not being facetious. it's a very effective way to talk the economy down and perhaps stop the willy-nilly price increases rather than just say, look, there's going to be a storm coming to you in 2023, so why don't you docaddress it...
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Aug 12, 2022
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steve kovac joins with us a deep dive on the newest leg of the creator economy. take a listen. >> reporter: samuel jordan may seem like your typical 23-year-old. his morning starts with coffee he checks his phone. but pretty soon he gets to running his million dollar metaverse fashion business >> in 2019, i made $30,000 creating items on roblox and i thought this could be a serious career and then in 2020 i made $600,000 designing digital items on roblox and 2021 i made over a million dollars designing items on roblox. >> roblox is growing faster than ever before. >> reporter: roblox is the virtual world of choice. it is an open world gaming platform that claims more than 54 million daily users jordan's been in it since he was 11 >> at that age, did you think, wow, this is going to be my career a decade from now >> not at all. >> reporter: today, it is his full time job. he sold more than 25 million digital clothing items and accessories, hats, earrings, wallet chains, that players buy through a virtual currency called robucks and creators turn back into real dol
steve kovac joins with us a deep dive on the newest leg of the creator economy. take a listen. >> reporter: samuel jordan may seem like your typical 23-year-old. his morning starts with coffee he checks his phone. but pretty soon he gets to running his million dollar metaverse fashion business >> in 2019, i made $30,000 creating items on roblox and i thought this could be a serious career and then in 2020 i made $600,000 designing digital items on roblox and 2021 i made over a...
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Aug 11, 2022
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steve? >> reporter: good afternoon, kelly. we haven't had direct comments from fed folks since the ppi number this morning. officials were not nearly as enthusiastic about that better than expected consumer price report as the markets were yeah, they were seeing the inflation rate declining but didn't suggest it would hold them back from hiking. in fact, quite the opposite. neal kashkari said this doesn't change my rate path at all, up to 4.4% next year. chicago fed president evans was nonplussed he backed a 3.75 to 4% rate and he's one of the defense. both bank presidents leaning against the market pricing for rate cuts next year. they're sort of in line on that peak rate. kashkari said it was more likely to cut and hold. one positivefactor in the ppi report wholesale inflation up the pipeline is falling faster crude or unrefined products were down 3%, goods for final demand closer to the consumer on the pipeline up 0.2% the cpi and ppi could begin the counting for the fed towards the test of clear and convincing evidence if
steve? >> reporter: good afternoon, kelly. we haven't had direct comments from fed folks since the ppi number this morning. officials were not nearly as enthusiastic about that better than expected consumer price report as the markets were yeah, they were seeing the inflation rate declining but didn't suggest it would hold them back from hiking. in fact, quite the opposite. neal kashkari said this doesn't change my rate path at all, up to 4.4% next year. chicago fed president evans was...
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Aug 8, 2022
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but what if the fed let the labor market run hot instead steve liesman is here now with more steve? >> yeah, crazy idea here, kelly. the market reaction to the surprise the half million jobs that were created in july swift and negative more jobs meant more fed according to most in the market. probability of 75 basis point hike in september hovering around 70% from 40%. terminal or peak rate surging from 342 above 360 as the market said you know what more job creation means more inflation, which means more rate hikes. but it's a bit of a quandary for the fed. what if more jobs means more supply of goods and services, which are in short supply now, and less inflation then putting workers back to work would be part of the solution, not the problem. take a look here the u.s. economy in july only just recovered the 22 million jobs lost in the pandemic. that's pretty good, sxept for one thing. the economy is now larger or call it $730 billion after you take out inflation that helps explain the tight labor market businesses across the economy scrambling to find workers so because of growth
but what if the fed let the labor market run hot instead steve liesman is here now with more steve? >> yeah, crazy idea here, kelly. the market reaction to the surprise the half million jobs that were created in july swift and negative more jobs meant more fed according to most in the market. probability of 75 basis point hike in september hovering around 70% from 40%. terminal or peak rate surging from 342 above 360 as the market said you know what more job creation means more inflation,...
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Aug 31, 2022
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>> i will do my best steve impression. i would sell it now, but i do like some of the prospect long term. this is my final trade, actually, a couple of weeks ago. because it caught my eye and bounced really off the penny from that pre-covid hi. that was at downward sloping, it did not, it failed, and now it's pushing beyond that 50 day. i still think your solid support, but again, i'm somewhat worried about the tumor. all that being said, i do prefer brands like this. higher end, lower customer base, pricing power, i think all of those things are good. i think they have a simple and somewhat achievable growth strategy going forward. they talk about quadrupling international. i think they will be able to do that, and i can drive growth going forward. i just don't know if you want to see the stock move in that direction in the very near future. >> tune into the whole show, that's friday, 3:40 p.m. eastern time. coming up, the pandemic was a 7- 10 split will it be a strike or a gutter ball? find out as the ceo of bolero will
>> i will do my best steve impression. i would sell it now, but i do like some of the prospect long term. this is my final trade, actually, a couple of weeks ago. because it caught my eye and bounced really off the penny from that pre-covid hi. that was at downward sloping, it did not, it failed, and now it's pushing beyond that 50 day. i still think your solid support, but again, i'm somewhat worried about the tumor. all that being said, i do prefer brands like this. higher end, lower...
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Aug 11, 2022
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. >> steve liesman is also here. steve, it would seem to me that there would be very little insensitive for a company to cut prices unless there is a fall in demand unless there is a cut in demand, am i right on that >> i don't know if you were opening up the can of words and the concept of sticky prices and economics and this thing has been studied for decades and economists hate this idea because what they want is they want prices to adjust as quickly as the factors affecting prices adjust and they don't and it confounds them, the way that physics is confounded by the inability to put together -- what do you want to call it quantum physics and plutonium physics and there are a bunch of reasons why they don't work. one, the cost of repricing and the restaurants are doing the menus and things concern like market share and also competition. a whole bunch of reasons why, tyler, it -- these prices. they're reluctant to raise them and once they raise them, they're reluctant to bring them down >> bill, is there a distinct
. >> steve liesman is also here. steve, it would seem to me that there would be very little insensitive for a company to cut prices unless there is a fall in demand unless there is a cut in demand, am i right on that >> i don't know if you were opening up the can of words and the concept of sticky prices and economics and this thing has been studied for decades and economists hate this idea because what they want is they want prices to adjust as quickly as the factors affecting...
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Aug 26, 2022
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steve? >> hey, becky, thanks. pleased to be joined by atlanta fed president raphael bostic, who, it was a tradition, but we broke it with the juniors being off. you are watching the data with interest this is one of the key things you're looking at. the key pc indicator did come down 4.6%. are you ready to stop raising rates? >> that would be a lot for me. this is a sign that the economy's starting to respond. we're trying to get to 2%. we want to make sure our policy moves encl moves closer to the range. >> it's not there now. what is restrictive to you >> for me, it's somewhere in the 3.5 to 3.25 range. and i'm hopeful we can get there by the end of the year i'm hoping we can get to a place where we can get to a redir restrictive posture. and sit there and let the policies work through the economy. >> so you don't seed a need to go further -- explain restrictive. there is a lot of talk about what is the right, you want to get to neutral inflation is 4.6, how can neutral be 2.5%, which is two points lower than th
steve? >> hey, becky, thanks. pleased to be joined by atlanta fed president raphael bostic, who, it was a tradition, but we broke it with the juniors being off. you are watching the data with interest this is one of the key things you're looking at. the key pc indicator did come down 4.6%. are you ready to stop raising rates? >> that would be a lot for me. this is a sign that the economy's starting to respond. we're trying to get to 2%. we want to make sure our policy moves encl...
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Aug 2, 2022
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. >> steve liesman is here with some reaction. nasdaq has been rallying ever since that hike. i don't know if investors feel the same way as daly does. >> there's a bit of a gap between the market expectations and i think the fed rhetoric or the fed guidance what you set is they're starting to price in either a recession and/or fed rate cuts down the road i think what you heard from daly is a part of a process of fed officials trying to lean again that but what he'd like to see is go ahead the range up 3.25, 3.5 range, and maybe stay there no while. what did daly say? she per membersed by the market pricing in -- you can see how the futures is priced. everybody is telling until by january but then you see the market trying to price in the rate cuts next year. both evans and daly are leaning against that pricing right now. >> yeah. she said she doesn't know what data they're looking at, but not only what you would expect, but it will be kind of jerking the economy around in a negative way, hiking, then cutting, then -- you know >> to be fair i asked john williams about this a f
. >> steve liesman is here with some reaction. nasdaq has been rallying ever since that hike. i don't know if investors feel the same way as daly does. >> there's a bit of a gap between the market expectations and i think the fed rhetoric or the fed guidance what you set is they're starting to price in either a recession and/or fed rate cuts down the road i think what you heard from daly is a part of a process of fed officials trying to lean again that but what he'd like to see is...
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Aug 4, 2022
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right and why it matters for the market steve? >> hey, good morning, andrew few issues are more important for the outlook in equities than who has this right right here on "squawk box," st. louis fed president jim bullard was telling us yesterday he expects the fed to be higher for longer presidents' daily from san francisco and from minneapolis >> some are expecting us to cut interest rates next year i don't want to say it's impossible, but the more likely scenario is that we would continue raising >> okay. so here's conflict in numbers. both markets and fed projections are in line for this year with the fund rates seen rising to end the year at 340. but next year markets have cut priced in. the gap, 80 basis points 380 for the fed, 303 for the market obviously the economy and inflation are going to determine who's got this right a full-blown recession that brings inflation down sharply could bring about those cuts since the fed began publish being its rate outlook in 2015 it overestimated rates it ended the year at 0.24. but the
right and why it matters for the market steve? >> hey, good morning, andrew few issues are more important for the outlook in equities than who has this right right here on "squawk box," st. louis fed president jim bullard was telling us yesterday he expects the fed to be higher for longer presidents' daily from san francisco and from minneapolis >> some are expecting us to cut interest rates next year i don't want to say it's impossible, but the more likely scenario is...
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Aug 5, 2022
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steve, what are we learning about the consumer and demand from liyft and doordash i was surprised to see such strong numbers from doordash as everyone is going out again. >> both these companies point a picture of a reopening economy uber saying we expect demand to continue to surge and especially surge once we get into the back-to-school season so there is no sign of these letting down from the travel side we heard from airbnb earlier this week that they are also seeing demand just not letting up at all despite these covid spikes and we're going to -- in fact they're so confident about that, they were able to issue a $2 billion share buyback. on the doordash side it's a little different growth moderated a bit and it's more normal growth than the super growth that we saw during the pandemic about 23% growth in doordash orders versus a year ago when we saw 60 something percent growth. so it is flattening a little bit. people are going to restaurants instead of having the restaurants come to them a bit more. >> but still growing. >> and part of that is because of the international expa
steve, what are we learning about the consumer and demand from liyft and doordash i was surprised to see such strong numbers from doordash as everyone is going out again. >> both these companies point a picture of a reopening economy uber saying we expect demand to continue to surge and especially surge once we get into the back-to-school season so there is no sign of these letting down from the travel side we heard from airbnb earlier this week that they are also seeing demand just not...
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Aug 17, 2022
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but, first, steve, you've got reaction to the uk inflation data >> yeah. nothing brings up fears of the '70s around '80s like double inflation. uk has an inflation rate of 10.1%. it's global, worse on the other side of the atlantic at least for now, and the question is how does this all impact the u.s.? u.s. inflation, 8.5%, year over year lower than uk and higher than france the different is u.s. inflation fell in july, but it was up in the other three countries this likely reflects proximities of the other countries to the impact of the ukraine war, weaker currencies, and a central bank behind. speaking of the fed, today's minutes could be something of a reset for markets. they heard a pivot toward earlier policies, a pivot that ignited a rally we are in the middle of here s&p up 8.4% since the last fed meeting, followed a 9% gain from the june to july meeting stocks kept on rallying. even after fed officials insisted the market was wrong to price in rate cuts next year rather than rate cuts next year, jim bullard told us on cnbc it was more likely to be
but, first, steve, you've got reaction to the uk inflation data >> yeah. nothing brings up fears of the '70s around '80s like double inflation. uk has an inflation rate of 10.1%. it's global, worse on the other side of the atlantic at least for now, and the question is how does this all impact the u.s.? u.s. inflation, 8.5%, year over year lower than uk and higher than france the different is u.s. inflation fell in july, but it was up in the other three countries this likely reflects...
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Aug 10, 2022
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let's bring in her senior economic supporter, steve. it is nice to see you. many, many hours later to the report, but basically, the notion is that the fed can be 50 points in september, and wait. >> that is the way the market is price. i must admit, you are holding up way better than i am, 12 hours after the number came out. look, the market is buoyant, and taking this in a positive way. the fed officials are less so, in the afternoon, they were saying, i am still on track for a 4% funding rate. evans says he is looking at 3.5%. maybe as churchill said, this is the end of the beginning. by that, several months from now, we may decide that this was the month that the fed was able to start counting, saying it had several months of evidence that inflation was coming down. that is a risk, and it is not exactly what they are saying now. there is a lot of push and pull. you look at the list of stuff that went out. food is up by 1%. we have strong gains in the housing market. that could take some time to come down. that is one third of the index. you had airfare co
let's bring in her senior economic supporter, steve. it is nice to see you. many, many hours later to the report, but basically, the notion is that the fed can be 50 points in september, and wait. >> that is the way the market is price. i must admit, you are holding up way better than i am, 12 hours after the number came out. look, the market is buoyant, and taking this in a positive way. the fed officials are less so, in the afternoon, they were saying, i am still on track for a 4%...
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Aug 8, 2022
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steve liesman has that. >> new york fed out with its consumer expectation survey and finds inflation expectations registered their biggest drop on record this series goes back to 2013 inflation expectations for gasoline, for food and for home prices, here are the numbers down 0.6% on the one-year at 6.2% the one year ahead of inflation expectations, that's still too high but it's come down. three-year, 3.2% down 0.4% and five here year down by 0.5%. the one the fed focuses most on and will be heartened to see it move toward its 2% target and household income expectations up but declined for spending. jon, this is something the market wants to see the fed give a breather and shows how tied these expectations are to gasoline jon. >> for sure. lots of different data to consider to start a new week, steve, thank you let's turn now to chips, nvidia sharply lower this morning as i mentioned after releasing preliminary q2 results posing a big top line miss laying the blame on macro head winds hitting the gaming business. our next guest calls thestock one of his top picks predicting they'll
steve liesman has that. >> new york fed out with its consumer expectation survey and finds inflation expectations registered their biggest drop on record this series goes back to 2013 inflation expectations for gasoline, for food and for home prices, here are the numbers down 0.6% on the one-year at 6.2% the one year ahead of inflation expectations, that's still too high but it's come down. three-year, 3.2% down 0.4% and five here year down by 0.5%. the one the fed focuses most on and...
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Aug 1, 2022
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steve, how does this message from google compare to wha we're hearing about hiring and spending from some of the othe big tech companies >> yes, sara it's very similar. a few weeks ago mark zuckerber told meta employees the same thing. hey, we all need to buckle dow here we're heading into a real toug environment, and we need to se productivity go up there's a sub text through all of this that if you're not willing to do that, you better get out now before the layoffs hit. you can kind of see this, sara as preparing these staff for any kind of future job cuts. on the apple side i asked ti cook about this. just during the earnings repor last week. and he wouldn't really say they're slowing down or laying off. he just said they're going to be deliberate about hiring. and then all these ceos have been talking about what they'r seeing through the end of th year foreign exchange head winds ar expected to be a huge pain especially through at least next year and then we're seeing other head winds ahead just like lower ad spending, which is reall hurting meta and linkedin side of microsoft a
steve, how does this message from google compare to wha we're hearing about hiring and spending from some of the othe big tech companies >> yes, sara it's very similar. a few weeks ago mark zuckerber told meta employees the same thing. hey, we all need to buckle dow here we're heading into a real toug environment, and we need to se productivity go up there's a sub text through all of this that if you're not willing to do that, you better get out now before the layoffs hit. you can kind of...
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Aug 26, 2022
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joining me for the hour today, brenda vangelo, jason snipe, josh brown and steve weiss and here with me is jim laventhal. you've been seeing the sell-off off of the better part of the last hour. the dow is down about 560 right now. it's the nasdaq that's taken it hard today, down 2.5%, the ten-year note yield is at 302 so yields aren't running away on the front end i guess, would you say. nonetheless, jim laventhal, this was a hawkish speech, full stop. the fed chair said his message was "going to be more direct, restoring price stability will take some time using our tools forcefully." he said "usually large increase could be appropriate at the next meeting, dependent on incoming data." he cite the paul voeker can saying we must keep at it before the job is done and there will be pain as a result. liesman pointing out that shows how resolute the fed is going to be and with all of that you say what >> first off, i say this is not a surprise he wanted to take off the table that rate cuts were come any time soon. that idea should not have been on the table everybody for the last month
joining me for the hour today, brenda vangelo, jason snipe, josh brown and steve weiss and here with me is jim laventhal. you've been seeing the sell-off off of the better part of the last hour. the dow is down about 560 right now. it's the nasdaq that's taken it hard today, down 2.5%, the ten-year note yield is at 302 so yields aren't running away on the front end i guess, would you say. nonetheless, jim laventhal, this was a hawkish speech, full stop. the fed chair said his message was...
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Aug 26, 2022
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two is the target. >> steve liesman live lesson jackson hole. let's turn to market correspondent, dominic chu. the s&p is down 4% on the week. do you see the markets retesting lows here? >> that is the key question right now and the reason why a lot of folks out there are trying to figure out whether today's down move is the precursor for something bigger, to retest those lows that we saw earlier this summer. to put all this in context, we are going to put the nasdaq and posit up there. the technology stock trade has been them epicenter of volatility. where we stand right now from the records that highs we saw last fall, we are down roughly about 25% from those record high levels. if you take a look at where we are from the lows here, we are still up about 15%, so this is a territory where we are still in that so-called bear market, but we are not yet testing those lows, so the key will be whether or not some stability can be brought back. one place traders are keeping a close eye on is consumer trade and steve alluded to it in the previous segm
two is the target. >> steve liesman live lesson jackson hole. let's turn to market correspondent, dominic chu. the s&p is down 4% on the week. do you see the markets retesting lows here? >> that is the key question right now and the reason why a lot of folks out there are trying to figure out whether today's down move is the precursor for something bigger, to retest those lows that we saw earlier this summer. to put all this in context, we are going to put the nasdaq and posit...
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Aug 22, 2022
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. >>> let's now get to steve kovach at headquarters with a closer look at the sell-off in big tech hey, steve. >> yeah, i'm at headquarters, mike let's compare the move to the rally we've seen the last three months let's kick it off with apple apple slipping 2% today but it's still up over the last three months and now 5% for the year and still flirting with that all-time high it hit back in early january. microsoft now, microsoft is down about 3% today and up almost 10% over the last three months doing pretty well there. amazon is underperforming the group today, down nearly 4%. that's on that report, mike, that it's bidding for signal health, which may be valued at $8 billion amazon getting into health care even more there. and alphabet is down 3% and up 4% for the last four months. the worst of the group, meta it's down more than 3% and it's the only mega cap resisting the rally this summer, down 16% the last three months, mike. >> yeah, steve just a massive spread between apple and meta, but even most other of the big faang stocks. appreciate it, steve >>> we'll have much more on t
. >>> let's now get to steve kovach at headquarters with a closer look at the sell-off in big tech hey, steve. >> yeah, i'm at headquarters, mike let's compare the move to the rally we've seen the last three months let's kick it off with apple apple slipping 2% today but it's still up over the last three months and now 5% for the year and still flirting with that all-time high it hit back in early january. microsoft now, microsoft is down about 3% today and up almost 10% over the...
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Aug 4, 2022
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liesman has a look at that gap in thinking today, steve >> carl, investors as they say in britain, to mind of gap several fed officials insisting the market has it wrong. bullard saying he expects the fed to be higher for longer, and cash k-- kashkari saying yesterday -- some financial markets are indicating they need to cut interest rates next years. i don't want to say that's imbalance, but i would say that's a unlikely scenario here's the issue right here. both markets and the fed are pretty much in line for this year with 100 basis points, but next year, the market has cuts priced in. obviously the economy and especially inflation will determine who's got this right a full-blown recession could create those -- and then again a recession with still high inflation that's a quandary for the fed. it means rates might not come down since the -- it's tended to overestimate rates in the first year, it projected 2016 rates at 140, and ended at 0.24 the past two years, they have a better track records record. this time could be different no one really cared back then that inflation came in
liesman has a look at that gap in thinking today, steve >> carl, investors as they say in britain, to mind of gap several fed officials insisting the market has it wrong. bullard saying he expects the fed to be higher for longer, and cash k-- kashkari saying yesterday -- some financial markets are indicating they need to cut interest rates next years. i don't want to say that's imbalance, but i would say that's a unlikely scenario here's the issue right here. both markets and the fed are...
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Aug 10, 2022
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. >> a bit more on that as well from our steve liesman as well, who joins us now steve? >> good morning. i think sara has this just right, the key to the growth, the lower number than expected that is has the market believing less inflation, less fed, and maybe a better chance of a soft landing on the headline verse the estimate of 0.2, year on year 0.2 better, core cpi, and then the year over year core cpi, unchanged for a change whee it has been a while since there's been a positive in the data, and it was priced to be disappointed again, but looking at the details, sara is right on this again a more mixed intoing on the inflation picture. airline fares falling sharply, maybe more to come, but then medical services, up 0.4, housing up 0.6, so still some pressure from those elements, at least. but markets seizing on the headline and saw let fed tightening equities rally, the dollar weaken, and of course the immediate future, so did the chance of a 75 basis point hike in the september and you can see the chance of a 57 basically the mirror image, flipping from 68 to 37%
. >> a bit more on that as well from our steve liesman as well, who joins us now steve? >> good morning. i think sara has this just right, the key to the growth, the lower number than expected that is has the market believing less inflation, less fed, and maybe a better chance of a soft landing on the headline verse the estimate of 0.2, year on year 0.2 better, core cpi, and then the year over year core cpi, unchanged for a change whee it has been a while since there's been a...
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Aug 23, 2022
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.>>> steve, karen and i didn't see you yesterday brian, crypto was a little bit better today, are you in a good mood? brian kelly. >> i am a little better. [ laughter ] >> what about the merge to me, i know what the purge was, bad movie, the surge, help me with the merge.>> if you got 90 minutes let's go. >> in the morning i do, 180 in the morning, the conundrum, a date left before central bankers convened in jackson hole, jerome powell is facing opposing forces on inflation, prices on essentials like energy and food going up, and natural gas, although today was little better, going down as housing, stocks and bit coin, the nightmare before jackson hole >> do you like that joe? i know you get into those producer type of things. and by the way, i wanted to mention, it's not that i don't like sitting next to you, and it's like icarus got too close to the sun, you know what happened to him, so i'm staying away from your sunbeam. >> i get your excuse. >> it is an excuse, talking about it at length and now, things going down, things that we want, things are going higher that things unfortu
.>>> steve, karen and i didn't see you yesterday brian, crypto was a little bit better today, are you in a good mood? brian kelly. >> i am a little better. [ laughter ] >> what about the merge to me, i know what the purge was, bad movie, the surge, help me with the merge.>> if you got 90 minutes let's go. >> in the morning i do, 180 in the morning, the conundrum, a date left before central bankers convened in jackson hole, jerome powell is facing opposing forces...
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Aug 22, 2022
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. >> the break above the 50 was -- the break above the 50, steve, let me just make this quick point, was concurrent with extreme pessimism, and bearish positioning. the challenge against the 200 day you'd worked off a significant amount of the bearish positioning and sentiment. now what i'm suggesting to you is with a low risk point of reference, i'll buy against those 150-day moving averages because they should offer some degree of support. i'll very quickly get out of that trade if i'm wrong, and if i'm right, we're going to go back untowarp towards that 200 y moving average and you have a much better probability that you're going to break above it go ahead, weiss. >> yeah, look, i think there's too much reliance on technicals. technicals are often back ward looking and forward looking say if it holds this it's going to go there i do think you have to look at them i don't invest often i think what's more important than finding support is what the algos do and what the equity portfolios are also fixed income portfolios and when they see that yields are starting to trend to 3% and we
. >> the break above the 50 was -- the break above the 50, steve, let me just make this quick point, was concurrent with extreme pessimism, and bearish positioning. the challenge against the 200 day you'd worked off a significant amount of the bearish positioning and sentiment. now what i'm suggesting to you is with a low risk point of reference, i'll buy against those 150-day moving averages because they should offer some degree of support. i'll very quickly get out of that trade if i'm...