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Apr 10, 2024
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. >> well take june, june rate cut off the table, and i have been arguing that 10-year note treasury market in general was not in the right place we are likely to get another round of you curve bear steepening like from august through october, going to be exceedingly did i for the treasury to place 519 billion coupon securities for sale next two quarters. in order to clear the market, likely to have to see rates, 10-year rates at least 4 3/4 maybe back to 5, hard to imagine how equity market just shrugs that off, the initial reaction in august was, well, driven by stronger growth and that is playing something avenue roll here but in reality i think we will probably get significant move higher in rates equity market will probably, take a breather here. >> carol we've got a market selling off dow industrials down 307 right now your reaction. >> yeah. i -- i mean i think this is obviously, a challenging, before the number the fed really is between a rock and a hard place. because, obviously, with these numbers, you know it seems that it would be very difficult to cut or be more accommod
. >> well take june, june rate cut off the table, and i have been arguing that 10-year note treasury market in general was not in the right place we are likely to get another round of you curve bear steepening like from august through october, going to be exceedingly did i for the treasury to place 519 billion coupon securities for sale next two quarters. in order to clear the market, likely to have to see rates, 10-year rates at least 4 3/4 maybe back to 5, hard to imagine how equity...
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Apr 24, 2024
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i think jamie dimon wants to be treasury secretary and i think he would be a great treasury secretary by the way. here's what he was telling me when talk about policy back in january. watch this. >> the problem with saying you're a democrat or republican is that people think you're going to knee jerk support to everything that those people believe so i'm not -- i fool i l like i have a democratic heart, i have a more republican brain. we need policies that will work. maria: he's talking about policies. he says the democrat policies have failed. >> it reminds me actually of george w. bush who called himself a compassionate conservative, a democratic heart and a republican brain of. i do think you're right, maria. jamie wants to be treasury secretary. sounds like he is playing to both sides so whether it's republican or democrat he'd be the man for the job. one of the things i think jamie does well, it's also one of the things i don't like, is that he constantly talks about how bad things could be and then if they don't turn out to be bad he said well -- maria: we're ready anyway. >> we
i think jamie dimon wants to be treasury secretary and i think he would be a great treasury secretary by the way. here's what he was telling me when talk about policy back in january. watch this. >> the problem with saying you're a democrat or republican is that people think you're going to knee jerk support to everything that those people believe so i'm not -- i fool i l like i have a democratic heart, i have a more republican brain. we need policies that will work. maria: he's talking...
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Apr 18, 2024
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maria: the treasury secretary of the united states goes to china to meet with her counterpart and they feeder mushrooms, psychedelic mushrooms. she comes back from the trip and laughs about it. can you imagine if the u.s. did the same to the treasury secretary while in new york or washington. >> we've seen and as you're showing right now janet yellen vowing to a guy who is actually lower in the chinese political system then she is an hours. already self importance of chinese officials and talking sounds responsible but is produced horrible results over the course especially the last three decades and what we need to stop talking to china that them come to washington if they want to talk to us, let them worry about what we think this is producing really bad results of what the administration is doing. maria: the fact that janet yellen decided to go to a bar in beijing with the ambassador to china and throw down a few beers that in itself, then they have video of it. that tells you she does not understand the threat of communist china this is a very serious situation with the trying to o
maria: the treasury secretary of the united states goes to china to meet with her counterpart and they feeder mushrooms, psychedelic mushrooms. she comes back from the trip and laughs about it. can you imagine if the u.s. did the same to the treasury secretary while in new york or washington. >> we've seen and as you're showing right now janet yellen vowing to a guy who is actually lower in the chinese political system then she is an hours. already self importance of chinese officials and...
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we need to unpack what the treasury secretary just said. she used the word dialogue, that was the catchphrase of the obama administration, lots of strategic dialogues but what we should be focusing on is china's behavior and that is only worsening with things like the counterespionage law, the detention of foreign nationals including dual citizen chinese americans, raids on american businesses. that's one aspect of this, you have to look at their behavior but secondly, she mentioned the word decouple, china's trying to decouple from the united states, while it is nice the treasury secretary says that, it doesn't really reflect the reality of the relationship. thirdly, the biden administration has made a huge push for electric vehicles in the united states. that has made us more dependent on communist china because they are makers of car batteries and cheap chinese cars which by the way are creating a problem there. so she's going to fix problems of our own making. maria: yesterday we spoke about this and one of my guests mentioned the fact
we need to unpack what the treasury secretary just said. she used the word dialogue, that was the catchphrase of the obama administration, lots of strategic dialogues but what we should be focusing on is china's behavior and that is only worsening with things like the counterespionage law, the detention of foreign nationals including dual citizen chinese americans, raids on american businesses. that's one aspect of this, you have to look at their behavior but secondly, she mentioned the word...
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. >> that is right the treasury bond market telling us there is not much room for this economy to grow, without putting more upward pressure on prices, it makes no sense. that the fed would be cutting rates, what is very much a full employment economy, where inflation is once again on the rise. maria: that is what we're seeing this morning, alfredo or tides assess the jobs market how do you see it? >> yeah, the -- the wall street, main street picture is very, very different, than we have on main street. and when i go out talk to, you know, restaurant owners, are patrons, just regular people regular folks on main street, the inflation issue is still a major, major factor i think "the wall street journal" just yesterday showed that groceries since post-pandemic, 40%, credit card rates where they are right now i don't think there is a rate cut i have been saying that all along. now with inflation the way it is now, i don't see that coming our small business owners regular consumer credit card -- excuse me credit card debt is at highest levels they are the ones suffering, those 1099s out t
. >> that is right the treasury bond market telling us there is not much room for this economy to grow, without putting more upward pressure on prices, it makes no sense. that the fed would be cutting rates, what is very much a full employment economy, where inflation is once again on the rise. maria: that is what we're seeing this morning, alfredo or tides assess the jobs market how do you see it? >> yeah, the -- the wall street, main street picture is very, very different, than we...
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will train general account bet last dollar everyone in treasury administration will do everything to a keep economy propped up into november. >> you think political going to be political? >> i mean, anyone with half a brain knows they are political. maria: thanks very much good to see you, sir kyle bass joining us this morning, quick break race for white house heats up president trump gaining support among uncle registered voters democrats worried we are breaking it down with our power panel after this break you are watching "mornings with maria" live on fox business. stay with us. . at ameriprise financial our advice is personalized based on your goals, whatever they may be. all that planning has paid off. looks like you can make this work. we can make this work. and the feeling of confidence that comes from our advice... i can make this work. that seems to be universal. i can make this work. i can make this work. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 clients are likely to recommend us. because advice worth listening to is advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial. scarborough shoa
will train general account bet last dollar everyone in treasury administration will do everything to a keep economy propped up into november. >> you think political going to be political? >> i mean, anyone with half a brain knows they are political. maria: thanks very much good to see you, sir kyle bass joining us this morning, quick break race for white house heats up president trump gaining support among uncle registered voters democrats worried we are breaking it down with our...
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Apr 30, 2024
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what that will do is it will raise interest rates across the treasury curve. that will tighten financial conditions. it's really the same effect that you would get from an interest rate increase. so i don't see a lot of appetite right now for most fed officials to raise interest rates. i think what it would take, maria, to put actual interest rate increases back on the table, you need to see evidence of wages reaccelerating, that would cause some alarm at the fed or inflation expectations rising. on those last two, wages reaccelerating, we're not seeing that yet but there will be an employment cost index report at 8:30 this morning and so that will be an important sign of whether wages continue to cool in line with what we've been seeing. maria: so bryce, what do you think? what are you expecting from the fed today and do you expect rate cuts at all this year? >> well, first of all, as a bond investors i think it's great. i love these yields. i think yields are considerably higher than inflation. we're managing investment grade bond portfolios between 5 and-a-
what that will do is it will raise interest rates across the treasury curve. that will tighten financial conditions. it's really the same effect that you would get from an interest rate increase. so i don't see a lot of appetite right now for most fed officials to raise interest rates. i think what it would take, maria, to put actual interest rate increases back on the table, you need to see evidence of wages reaccelerating, that would cause some alarm at the fed or inflation expectations...
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Apr 17, 2024
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treasury secretary janet yellen says the u.s. plans to impose new sanctions on iran in the coming days. watch this. >> and discussions that i have had all options to disrupt terrorist financing over iran continue to be on the table. we have been working to diminish iran's ability to export oil. clearly iran is continuing to export some oil. there may be more that we can do. >> she's talking about all the options on the table. they bid on the table for years and were talking about the beat on the table. the biden administration is facing backlash for extending the sanction waiver last month and unlocked up to $10 billion in frozen money for iran biden is also making a 6 billion-dollar prisoner swap deal with iran that happened last year. what do you think iranian leadership used all the money for were they planning an attack, do they buy weapons and ammunition to attack israel. >> that's exactly what i've been saying the last few months and that's going to happen all of the revenue not on the people of iran but to support its prox
treasury secretary janet yellen says the u.s. plans to impose new sanctions on iran in the coming days. watch this. >> and discussions that i have had all options to disrupt terrorist financing over iran continue to be on the table. we have been working to diminish iran's ability to export oil. clearly iran is continuing to export some oil. there may be more that we can do. >> she's talking about all the options on the table. they bid on the table for years and were talking about...
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take a look at interest rates ten year treasury yield has been hovering around 4.4% recently. it is now at 4.39%, down to another basis points right now. j.p. morgan jamie dimon annual letter to shareholders out yesterday questioning the federal reserve outlook for a soft landing, the leader banker warning interest rates could skyrocket to 8% admit skyhigh debt and international conflicts. i spoke with him back in january we told me the same thing about rate cuts, watch this. >> where does the fed fit in right now it's priced in three rate cuts this year, possibly two or three rate cuts in 2025. do you agree with that. >> i'm a skeptic, i look at a lot of things and forget economic models for sackett, to dragon dollars in fiscal deficit. the infrastructure and ira act, the green economy, re-militarization of the world, restructured to train are all inflationary. that looks like 1970s to me. i think there is a chance that people should be prepared that inflation comes down maybe bounced up a little bit in those implied curves will change. maria: joined me cfr chief investment s
take a look at interest rates ten year treasury yield has been hovering around 4.4% recently. it is now at 4.39%, down to another basis points right now. j.p. morgan jamie dimon annual letter to shareholders out yesterday questioning the federal reserve outlook for a soft landing, the leader banker warning interest rates could skyrocket to 8% admit skyhigh debt and international conflicts. i spoke with him back in january we told me the same thing about rate cuts, watch this. >> where...
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Apr 22, 2024
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former arkansas governor mike huckabee, former assistant treasury, monica crowley and liz peek will be here when we come back in the 7:00 a.m. hour. you're watching "mornings with maria" live on fox business. stay with us. ♪ luck let a gentleman see. ♪ how nice a dame you can be. ♪ i know the way you treated other guys you've been with. ♪ luck be a lady with me. ♪ [alarm beeping] amelia, turn off alarm. amelia, weather. 70 degrees and sunny today. amelia, unlock the door. i'm afraid i can't do that, jen. why not? did you forget something? my protein shake. the future isn't scary, not investing in it is. you're so dramatic amelia. bye jen. 100 innovative companies, one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges expenses and more prospectus at invesco.com. maria: good monday morning everyone. thanks very much for joining us this horn mo. i'm -- this morning.i'm maria b. time for the hot topic of the hour. a new nbc poll finds former president trump leading president biden on major issues, voters feel he is better equipped to ha
former arkansas governor mike huckabee, former assistant treasury, monica crowley and liz peek will be here when we come back in the 7:00 a.m. hour. you're watching "mornings with maria" live on fox business. stay with us. ♪ luck let a gentleman see. ♪ how nice a dame you can be. ♪ i know the way you treated other guys you've been with. ♪ luck be a lady with me. ♪ [alarm beeping] amelia, turn off alarm. amelia, weather. 70 degrees and sunny today. amelia, unlock the door....
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Apr 26, 2024
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look at the 10 year treasury this morning, right now at 4.69%. we're right there kissing up to 4.7%, brenda. okay. even though that's down 1 basis point this morning. treasury secretary janet yellen reacting to yesterday's weaker than expected first quarter gdp. here's what she said. >> what is your reaction hot off the presses to today's first quarter gdp data? >> a lot of the data take theres actually not yet in hand. there could be revisions. the u.s. economy continues to perform very, very well. the fundamentals here are in line with inflation continuing down back toward normal levels. maria: that was a lot of talking points. you're talking about the slowest economic growth story since second quarter 2022, brenda. we've got the pce index out. year over year it is exact todd be up 2.7%. jamie dimon told the wall street journal that he's giving a soft landing long odds. watch this. >> the consumer's in pretty good shape. one thing you've got to be questioning about, a lot of it is driven by fiscal spending. that will have other consequences pos
look at the 10 year treasury this morning, right now at 4.69%. we're right there kissing up to 4.7%, brenda. okay. even though that's down 1 basis point this morning. treasury secretary janet yellen reacting to yesterday's weaker than expected first quarter gdp. here's what she said. >> what is your reaction hot off the presses to today's first quarter gdp data? >> a lot of the data take theres actually not yet in hand. there could be revisions. the u.s. economy continues to perform...
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veterans to be treasury secretary if he wins in november. as you reported, billionaire hedge fund manager is on the list along with robert light lit hiser. if trumps takes back the white house, the treasury and a federal reserve posts will be very important to wall street. well, at&t acknowledging a massive data breach of customer information, dating back to 2019. the company acknowledging 73 million users were affected. 7.6 million current at&t customers and 65.4 million former account holders caught up with this breach, e-mails, addresses, names, phone numbers, dates of birth, social security numbers, all in this hack. taking a look at the stock in the premarket, it's down 2 and a quarter percent this morning. the news just a week after the company denied any breach of its systems. and finally, there's this, maria. fdny firefighters were forced to remove the thin red line flag honoring 9/11 heroes because one council woman said her constituent called o it out as a political symbol. the staff claimed it you was to honor deceased firefighter
veterans to be treasury secretary if he wins in november. as you reported, billionaire hedge fund manager is on the list along with robert light lit hiser. if trumps takes back the white house, the treasury and a federal reserve posts will be very important to wall street. well, at&t acknowledging a massive data breach of customer information, dating back to 2019. the company acknowledging 73 million users were affected. 7.6 million current at&t customers and 65.4 million former account...
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Apr 30, 2024
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what that'll do is it'll raise e interest rates across the treasury curve. that'll tighten financial conditions. it's really the same effect that you would get from an interest rate increase. so i don't with see a lot of ap a -- an tighten right now if most fed official toss raise interest rates. i think what it would taxer, maria, to put actual interest rate increases back on the table, you need to see evidence of wages reaccelerating. that would cause some aea a lance armstrong at the fed or -- alarm at the fed or inflation rising. wages accelerating, we're not seeing that yet, but there will be a report at a 8:30 this morning, and so that'll be an important sign of whether, you know, wages continue to cool in line with what we've been seeing. maria: and that was "the wall street journal"'s chief economics correspondent nick timiraos and what he's expecting from the fed. the employment cost index out in about 5 minutes' time. it's expected to be up 1. we'll see if that moves markets when it hits the happy. -- tape. futures indicating a decline on the final
what that'll do is it'll raise e interest rates across the treasury curve. that'll tighten financial conditions. it's really the same effect that you would get from an interest rate increase. so i don't with see a lot of ap a -- an tighten right now if most fed official toss raise interest rates. i think what it would taxer, maria, to put actual interest rate increases back on the table, you need to see evidence of wages reaccelerating. that would cause some aea a lance armstrong at the fed or...
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Apr 29, 2024
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the 10 year treasury is pulling back ahead of the federal reserve's meeting tomorrow, the talk is over whether or not the federal reserve will cut interest rates and whether they'll do it this summer or if they'll do it all year. the yield on the 10 year, 4.63%, down 3 and-a-half basis points. the wall street journal reporting even if the fed cuts the days of ultra low rates are over. chris, what are you expecting? >> i think we still expect a little bit of a cut can. people are saying no, pundits are saying maybe no cut is necessary with the commercial debt out there we believe it's necessary. it's a weird market. you can't paint it with one brush stroke. everyone said google is done, no one will google anymore. they're paying a dividend and doing a stock buyback. microsoft is churning along. on the other side of the coin, the cycle with zuckerberg, hate, love, hate, they hate him again because we're in a cycle of big time spending. in general, i think the fed has to do some cutting. i think if we don't do a cut we already saw four or five regional bank failures, the number could be 3
the 10 year treasury is pulling back ahead of the federal reserve's meeting tomorrow, the talk is over whether or not the federal reserve will cut interest rates and whether they'll do it this summer or if they'll do it all year. the yield on the 10 year, 4.63%, down 3 and-a-half basis points. the wall street journal reporting even if the fed cuts the days of ultra low rates are over. chris, what are you expecting? >> i think we still expect a little bit of a cut can. people are saying...
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Apr 22, 2024
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now, our power panel hour, former arkansas governor, mike huckabee, former assistant secretary of the treasury, monica crowley and columnist and fox news contributor, liz peek. thank you for being here. mike huckabee, your reaction to the polls that pretty much are consistent on and on? >> hard to believe there really would be a majority of americans who say, yeah, joe biden, he's totally competent. this is a guy who who can't find himself off the stage, shakes hands with ghosts, half the time doesn't know exactly where he is, can't mumble through a teleprompter speech and if americans said that's who i would love to have leading the world for another four years, i'd be shocked. maria: i would be shocked too, given the fact that the one question you ask in an election year is do you feel better today than you did four years ago. i mean, it's a resounding no. you don't feel better, given where inflation is, excessive spending, the world is on fire. but liz, the same poll finds rfk junior's third party bid could take more votes away from trump than biden. trump leads biden right now by 2 points.
now, our power panel hour, former arkansas governor, mike huckabee, former assistant secretary of the treasury, monica crowley and columnist and fox news contributor, liz peek. thank you for being here. mike huckabee, your reaction to the polls that pretty much are consistent on and on? >> hard to believe there really would be a majority of americans who say, yeah, joe biden, he's totally competent. this is a guy who who can't find himself off the stage, shakes hands with ghosts, half the...
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Apr 22, 2024
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the yield on 10-year treasury right now sitting at 4.65%, that is up almost 3 basis points we are getting first read quarter gdp out this week on thursday economists expecting 2.4% growth we get fed preferred reading on inflation that is march pce index on friday u.s. bank asset management group chief investment officer eric freedman your expectations for data particularly as it relates to inflation. >> a huge to your point we do think inflation hanging around still a decent economy we have what we call late cycle inflation kicking in, we expect that number to probably be in the called 2 1/2 to 3% range. that is still above the fed stated target 2% so a little hotter than fed stated they want to see but expect fed to probably come off 2% anchoring just because tough to get inflation to come down pce friday, really important per your earlier segment earnings huge focus as well. maria: earnings, but on inflation, look the fed obviously, was expecting inflation to be lower than where it is right now. but it is also facing this tsunami of constant spending, not where it said it would be, so t
the yield on 10-year treasury right now sitting at 4.65%, that is up almost 3 basis points we are getting first read quarter gdp out this week on thursday economists expecting 2.4% growth we get fed preferred reading on inflation that is march pce index on friday u.s. bank asset management group chief investment officer eric freedman your expectations for data particularly as it relates to inflation. >> a huge to your point we do think inflation hanging around still a decent economy we...
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Apr 19, 2024
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interest rates this morning are -- take a look, higher, the 10-year treasury yield this morning, is sitting at around 4.59% actually reversing course down 4.2 basis points sitting at 4.59% new york federal reserve president williams, bostic both said no the urgency mad dash to cut interest rates, kashkari said we could see fed holding rates steady rest of the year departure from what markets were expecting this year where, people were saying we're getting six rate cuts. >> well yes, you hit on it exactly a hiej departure at beginning of the year we would have thought that that defeat of expecting 6 or 7 rate cuts would cause a bear market, stocks higher economy booming we've got to stop listening to public hounds at the fed we adopt need fed to rescue this economy cutting rate don't need to be rescued we're doing great fed doctor can't see you for six months give you medicine i've got good news you are not sick. so my fellow texans rand paul says abolish fed they are irrelevant economy booming move along. maria: if market was expecting six rate cuts, three rate cuts still expecting some rat
interest rates this morning are -- take a look, higher, the 10-year treasury yield this morning, is sitting at around 4.59% actually reversing course down 4.2 basis points sitting at 4.59% new york federal reserve president williams, bostic both said no the urgency mad dash to cut interest rates, kashkari said we could see fed holding rates steady rest of the year departure from what markets were expecting this year where, people were saying we're getting six rate cuts. >> well yes, you...
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Apr 29, 2024
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interest rates meanwhile trading this way as we look at the 10 year treasury yield, it's down 3 and-a-half basis points at 4.63%. this ahead of the federal reserve's policy meeting which begins tomorrow morning. much conversation over whether or not the fed will begin cutting interest rates this summer or if it will do so at all this year. the wall street journal reporting this, even if the fed cuts the days of ultra low rates are over. joining me is commonwealth financial network chief investment officer, brad mcmillan. great to see you. thank you for being here. what are your thoughts going into this fed meeting? >> well, i've been saying this for a year and-a-half, maria, it still holds. the question isn't is the fed going to cut, it's why would they cut. when you see the pce data, inflation ticking up a bit, the fed has zero need to t cut right now. they have zero interest to cut right now. i expect them to come out and say hey, we're not going to cut until the inflation numbers say they should and that's not happening any time soon. maria: inflation remains elevated. chris jump in her
interest rates meanwhile trading this way as we look at the 10 year treasury yield, it's down 3 and-a-half basis points at 4.63%. this ahead of the federal reserve's policy meeting which begins tomorrow morning. much conversation over whether or not the fed will begin cutting interest rates this summer or if it will do so at all this year. the wall street journal reporting this, even if the fed cuts the days of ultra low rates are over. joining me is commonwealth financial network chief...
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Apr 23, 2024
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chapter we've been talking about the unlikelihood of the rate cuts for a while, look at the ten year treasury this morning. as you jump in this is the first reader first-quarter gdp coming out on thursday, the yield at 4.61%. >> if inflation continues to re-accelerate and there's no rate cuts i would expect that to inflict pain on the stock market but quincy i have to ask a question just a most challenging question i've had any clients asked me recently which is about forward looking returns. we always want to make sure were properly managing client expectation when they asked me that question how much do you think the market will earn every year for the next five or ten years you look back and you go back to january 2009 in the market averaged an annualized return of 14% from january 2009 through today but that's on the back of growing the national debt from 10 trillion to 34 trillion and off of the back of having 0 interest rate policy. at some point the chicken has to come home to roost you have to pay the piper we can spend 3 trillion every more than were taking it. when you get a questio
chapter we've been talking about the unlikelihood of the rate cuts for a while, look at the ten year treasury this morning. as you jump in this is the first reader first-quarter gdp coming out on thursday, the yield at 4.61%. >> if inflation continues to re-accelerate and there's no rate cuts i would expect that to inflict pain on the stock market but quincy i have to ask a question just a most challenging question i've had any clients asked me recently which is about forward looking...
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treasury secretary janet yellen en route to china this morning, there to discuss a level playing field with beijing and apparently new risks about climate change. meanwhile, back at home, a major month for the trump campaign, the rnc and president trump fund raising more than $65 million for the month as the 45th president leads president biden in six out of seven swing states. joining the conversation all morning long this morning, strategic wealth partners ceo, mark tepper, gop strategist, joe pinion and former new york state security advisor, michael ball l balboni. "mornings with maria" is live right now. ♪ maria: and it's time for the hot topic of the hour. a gallup poll finding 57% of americans think that president biden is likable, that's down 9% from 2020. the poll also finds the same percentage say former president trump is a strong and decisive leader. in 2024, that's up 1% since 2020. new readings this morning to a take a look at. joe pinion, your reaction. >> look, certainly those are encouraging numbers for president trump and i think it reflects what most americans real
treasury secretary janet yellen en route to china this morning, there to discuss a level playing field with beijing and apparently new risks about climate change. meanwhile, back at home, a major month for the trump campaign, the rnc and president trump fund raising more than $65 million for the month as the 45th president leads president biden in six out of seven swing states. joining the conversation all morning long this morning, strategic wealth partners ceo, mark tepper, gop strategist,...
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Apr 30, 2024
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what that will do is it will raise interest rates across the treasury curve. that will tighten financial conditions. it's really the same effect you would get from an interest rate increase so i don't see a lot of appetite right now from most fed officials to raise interest rates. i think what it would take, maria, to put actual interest rate increases back on the table like jim said, it would take some combination of inflation going higher, some nasty supply shock, oil prices going much higher. you need to see evidence of wages reaccelerating. that would cause some alarm at the fed or inflation expectations rising. on those last two, wages reaccelerating, we're not seeing that yet but there will be a cost index report at 8:30 this morning so that will be an important sign of whether wages continue to cool in line with what we've been seeing. maria: yeah. so you write in your first graph of this piece, you an ancient chinese proverbs that councils do nothing and everything will be done could sum up the federal reserve's latest approach to interest rate policy.
what that will do is it will raise interest rates across the treasury curve. that will tighten financial conditions. it's really the same effect you would get from an interest rate increase so i don't see a lot of appetite right now from most fed officials to raise interest rates. i think what it would take, maria, to put actual interest rate increases back on the table like jim said, it would take some combination of inflation going higher, some nasty supply shock, oil prices going much...
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Apr 25, 2024
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maria: maria: look at interest rates this morning, the 10 year treasury yield trading this way ahead of the first read of first quarter gdp out, it's out this morning at 8:30 a.m. and the yield on the 10 year at 4.65%. on the gdp we're expecting growth of 2.4%. we've got the fed's preferred read on inflation as well. the march pce index is out on friday. kevin, let's talk about the fed. we've got the fomc meeting next week. will we hear more over time, over time, jay powell keeps saying that. i think they're giving up on the 2% target. >> in have. the long awaited economic slowdown has finely come to fortune as we can see the 2.4% growth for the fourth quarter. they raised the inflation target to 2.6%. that tells me they're more concerned with the economic slowdown dipping into recession than they are with inflation staying above 2%. i think there's a path forward for three interest rate cuts this year but don't expect that first one any time before july. maria: three rate cuts. i think that is -- you're sticking your neck out with that one. >> that's their forecast, not mine. maria:
maria: maria: look at interest rates this morning, the 10 year treasury yield trading this way ahead of the first read of first quarter gdp out, it's out this morning at 8:30 a.m. and the yield on the 10 year at 4.65%. on the gdp we're expecting growth of 2.4%. we've got the fed's preferred read on inflation as well. the march pce index is out on friday. kevin, let's talk about the fed. we've got the fomc meeting next week. will we hear more over time, over time, jay powell keeps saying that. i...
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interest rates this morning look like this, take a look at the 10 year treasury yield at 4.19%. joining me is u.s. bank wealth management senior vice president, head of public markets group, lisa eric as eri. great to see you. what a great quarter on top of a great year in 2023. do you think the rally has legs further into 2024. >> we have a balanced view right now, maria. to your point, we've had really nice upward momentum and that's well supported by you a consumer that's been very resilient in spending, supported by a strong labor market. however, we're not full-on bullish and the reason why is we've had a prolonged period of higher prices and that is starting to show some signs of impact on the consumer, particularly in those lower income cohorts. so we want to monitor that carefully to see, again, if that middle income and more affluent cohort starts to be impacted as well and in addition we have seen more just moderate economic activity. so again, we feel glass half full but in a more middle of the road balanced view on where the market's headed. maria: top story in the j
interest rates this morning look like this, take a look at the 10 year treasury yield at 4.19%. joining me is u.s. bank wealth management senior vice president, head of public markets group, lisa eric as eri. great to see you. what a great quarter on top of a great year in 2023. do you think the rally has legs further into 2024. >> we have a balanced view right now, maria. to your point, we've had really nice upward momentum and that's well supported by you a consumer that's been very...
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treasury secretary janet yellen is meeting with former chinese vice premier this morning in beijing. back in washington, congress is back after a two week recess with the growing risks of a wide open border front and center. the house gets set to send impeachment articles for alejandro mayorkas to the senate on wednesday. hhear why floridagovernor ron de about his state sues the administration. things are looking up, a rare total solar eclipse will be seen in parts of the united states this afternoon. we're previewing it from every angle this morning. joining the conversation all morning long this morning, column oft and fox news contributor, liz peek, michael lee strategy found r, michael lee. "mornings with maria" is live right now. ♪ what are we waiting for. ♪ what are we waiting for. ♪ why are we wasting all the time like someone's making more. ♪ what are we praying for. ♪ what are we saving for. ♪ what if we could be the lying that no one could ignore. maria: time for the hot topic of the hour. former president trump's campaign raising an historic haul of more than $
treasury secretary janet yellen is meeting with former chinese vice premier this morning in beijing. back in washington, congress is back after a two week recess with the growing risks of a wide open border front and center. the house gets set to send impeachment articles for alejandro mayorkas to the senate on wednesday. hhear why floridagovernor ron de about his state sues the administration. things are looking up, a rare total solar eclipse will be seen in parts of the united states this...
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Apr 12, 2024
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it's disappointing to see the treasury secretary doing the opposite saying is important to keep the u.s. china economic relationship going and i think we see the diplomatic consequences of the economic engagement years. you have a chinese superpower that can bankroll aggressive action in russia, and europe in the middle east and the pacific itself, that's where were going we built this, we funded it and it's starting to roll forward. maria: i don't know why they had cameras shoot them having peers in china. janet yellen and the ambassador. all of this in the midst of all of the aggression from communist china. you've spoken so much about the ceos of america want to do business in china. your with the new op-ed on foxnews.com it's titled american ceos overlook china risk after a peril. the right american investment will likely continue to play and to china's largest strategic program contributing not only to the erosion of our military advantages but the growing risk of your own companies both in the china market and beyond. what ratcliffe has told me time and time again strategy is simp
it's disappointing to see the treasury secretary doing the opposite saying is important to keep the u.s. china economic relationship going and i think we see the diplomatic consequences of the economic engagement years. you have a chinese superpower that can bankroll aggressive action in russia, and europe in the middle east and the pacific itself, that's where were going we built this, we funded it and it's starting to roll forward. maria: i don't know why they had cameras shoot them having...
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Apr 26, 2024
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were waiting on important economic data five minutes away check the interest-rate into the pc index treasury yield on the ten year right now sits at 4.68%, down to it have basis points, janet yellowed reacting to yesterday's weaker than expected gdp number. watch. >> what is your reaction hot off the press to today's first-quarter gdp data. >> a lot of the data there is actually not yet in hand there could be revisions in the u.s. economy continues to perform very, very well, the fundamentals here are in line with inflation continuing down backward normal levels. maria: the wall street journal reported that the dream of the federal reserve rate cut is slipping away as investors lowered the expectation for rate cuts in the coming months the march pc index coming on board minutes time, the expectation call for again in core pce month over month after retentive a present and again, of 2.7% year-over-year, wells fargo investment institute ahead of global investment strategy paul christopher, thank you so much for being here. let me get your expectation for inflation longer-term it feels like it'
were waiting on important economic data five minutes away check the interest-rate into the pc index treasury yield on the ten year right now sits at 4.68%, down to it have basis points, janet yellowed reacting to yesterday's weaker than expected gdp number. watch. >> what is your reaction hot off the press to today's first-quarter gdp data. >> a lot of the data there is actually not yet in hand there could be revisions in the u.s. economy continues to perform very, very well, the...
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Apr 16, 2024
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negative for a couple of days, not a good second quarter that is for sure as we look at the ten year treasury yields ahead of the federal reserve chairman jay powell speech later. he's going to speak at 1:15 p.m. eastern, the yield on the ten year is that for .65%. that's a must fight basis points this morning mark newton tom lee, they do a great job in mark newton says overall i cannot rule out more weakness this week and pointed out long-term interest rates are suppressing higher given that technology is not broken down relative to the s&p 500, the technicals remain in good shape, i would buy the dips but we are not out of this just yet, monday's decline appears a bit more bearish technically and merits addressing to explore where this might go in the weeks ahead. you say the possibility of rate hikes are more likely scenario leave the market vulnerable to a pullback as well. >> that is right. i think the way they categorize is correct we would be buying dips as well but in the near-term there is a possibility for weakness in the story that she has been inflation to sticky, year three of th
negative for a couple of days, not a good second quarter that is for sure as we look at the ten year treasury yields ahead of the federal reserve chairman jay powell speech later. he's going to speak at 1:15 p.m. eastern, the yield on the ten year is that for .65%. that's a must fight basis points this morning mark newton tom lee, they do a great job in mark newton says overall i cannot rule out more weakness this week and pointed out long-term interest rates are suppressing higher given that...
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refreshly secretary janet yellen is in china -- treasury secretary janet yellen is in china this morning, the shanghai and hong kong down fractionally, china this morning reiterating that the u.s. does not want to decouple from china according to the janet yellen. then president biden's open border completely out of control and president trump is now out with a new warning about china building a m militia inside the united states. meanwhile, two ring leaders from interest the el paso border charge still on the loose as seven are in custody, ongoing court battles putting texas in a bind to enforce the law. i'll speak with texas governor greg abbott in the 8:00 a.m. our. joining the conversation all morning long, pollster and president of maslansky and partners, lee carter is here and lonski group founder, john lonski. "mornings with maria" is live right now. ♪ maria: it's time for the hot topic of the hour. president biden is headed to baltimore to tour the damage from last week's deadly key bridge collapse. a new politico report finds the biden campaign is bringing on a group of vetera
refreshly secretary janet yellen is in china -- treasury secretary janet yellen is in china this morning, the shanghai and hong kong down fractionally, china this morning reiterating that the u.s. does not want to decouple from china according to the janet yellen. then president biden's open border completely out of control and president trump is now out with a new warning about china building a m militia inside the united states. meanwhile, two ring leaders from interest the el paso border...
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Apr 15, 2024
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take a look at interest rates, 10 year treasury yield looks like this as we look at the 10 year, it is sitting at 4.57%. that's up almost 5 basis points right now. rates are moving higher. in the middle of all of the bank earnings that are coming this week, we're waiting on gold man sacks this morning. we've got more first quarter results coming this week including bank of america, morgan stanley, that will set the tone for markets this week. joining us now is cfra research director, ken leon of. thanks for being here. what are exec sta expectations t quarter profit reports. >> there's a lot going on. geopolitical risk. i think for the banks, what we're seeing is a healthy u.s. economy. we're not going into recession. rates higher for longer. it's still okay. and last week going into this week we saw on the consumer side very healthy credit card activity. we didn't really see anything episodic in terms of credit risk and generally on rates the banks do okay with net interest income. this weak is much more important because we're talking about koao confidence is up. what will this mean
take a look at interest rates, 10 year treasury yield looks like this as we look at the 10 year, it is sitting at 4.57%. that's up almost 5 basis points right now. rates are moving higher. in the middle of all of the bank earnings that are coming this week, we're waiting on gold man sacks this morning. we've got more first quarter results coming this week including bank of america, morgan stanley, that will set the tone for markets this week. joining us now is cfra research director, ken leon...
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Apr 24, 2024
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yesterday the dow at 263 the nasdaq twitter 45, look at where interest rates are this morning, the ten year treasury yield right now ahead of the first rita first quarter gdp hovering around 4.6%, at 4.64% up for the quarter basis points we will get the gdp tomorrow annual growth expected at 2.4%. will get the preferred reading on inflation, the march pc index on friday but before all of that in a minutes time will get durable goods orders how important are the reports to you in terms of indicating the macro story. >> you've known me for a long time and i tend to be very bullish, even when the market looks down i tend to be bullish i bullish this week but overall we have to understand inflation is not good to go anywhere anytime soon were you to be stuck at the point to, .4 month over month and were currently running three to half% in the fed was able to get it down to 2% below, i don't see the fed cutting interest rates anytime soon, 2024 may be off the table and one of the things a lot of people aren't talking about in terms of the narrative we may be stuck of this level of inflation at 2 - 4% for
yesterday the dow at 263 the nasdaq twitter 45, look at where interest rates are this morning, the ten year treasury yield right now ahead of the first rita first quarter gdp hovering around 4.6%, at 4.64% up for the quarter basis points we will get the gdp tomorrow annual growth expected at 2.4%. will get the preferred reading on inflation, the march pc index on friday but before all of that in a minutes time will get durable goods orders how important are the reports to you in terms of...
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. >> can you imagine donald trump being president and going to china and american secretary of the treasury begging the chinese please don't flood our markets with electric vehicles, it's going to be bad -- donald trump would say you try that i'm going to slap a tariff on you and you won't have anything. maria: we know that because that is what trump did, he had sanctions, tariffs on china come to them contained. >> kept the world contained and in relation to mexico making demands of the united states where donald trump threatened a tariff and it works, the solution is we need to get better leaders, strength on the world stage and president biden who wakes up at noon not cutting it. maria: obrador from mexico saying we better spend $20 billion a month to the latin american countries or the flow will keep coming into america. thank you for joining us for this power panel our. thank you for your time this morning, we will take a short break and take you to the sunshine state on how the retirement community is viewing the state of the economy. ashley: we are reporting from the villages, a reti
. >> can you imagine donald trump being president and going to china and american secretary of the treasury begging the chinese please don't flood our markets with electric vehicles, it's going to be bad -- donald trump would say you try that i'm going to slap a tariff on you and you won't have anything. maria: we know that because that is what trump did, he had sanctions, tariffs on china come to them contained. >> kept the world contained and in relation to mexico making demands...
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yesterday that moved lower, flushed lower, because 10 of 10 ofyear treasury went higher. we could have a technical correction but when earnings season comes the next few weeks, big tech earnings and those companies i believe will beat and raise guidance, that will be the focus. the next couple weeks, there could be some chop, chop, higher interest rates, higher oil, lower stocks but earnings season, the microsofts, nvidia, the big names coming out, i think investors will be happy with those reports. maria: it's a great point we will certainly watch earnings dictate performance in the coming week and-a-half. we'll start with of course the major banks in two weeks' time, reporting first quarter numbers. mark tepper, jump in here, because in the vacuum of no earnings, we're focused on oil and it's not a good picture. >> no, it's not. i mean, ken, when you look at oil prices, oil's up over 20% so far year-to-date whether we're talking about wti or brent. at some point high oil prices will negatively impact the economy and the stock market will throw a fit and start to sell of
yesterday that moved lower, flushed lower, because 10 of 10 ofyear treasury went higher. we could have a technical correction but when earnings season comes the next few weeks, big tech earnings and those companies i believe will beat and raise guidance, that will be the focus. the next couple weeks, there could be some chop, chop, higher interest rates, higher oil, lower stocks but earnings season, the microsofts, nvidia, the big names coming out, i think investors will be happy with those...
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Apr 19, 2024
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the dow industrial done 121, nasdaq that will 100 and the ten year treasury yield this morning is trading lower by six basis point city data level of 4.57% on the tenure. commodities we have been watching for any spike take a look at golden oil after israel strikes back at iran in retaliation for the last weakens attack. the limited strike targeting a nuclear facility ended airbase the price of gold at 2396 and change down a fraction in the price of oil at 8239, that is down as well. joining the lpl financial chief technical strategist adam turnquist, good to see you, your reaction. >> good morning thank you for having me on. at least it looks like some of the overnight tension have simmered out a little bit, oil back enough, wti $386, gold also hit a new intraday all-time highs backing off a little bit. right now the reaction initially was sell now ask questions later now that we are more news coming out and a limited reaction this far some of the risk safety havens are backing off from their highs. iat least a good sign going into the market. >> to you think your suggested an idea that
the dow industrial done 121, nasdaq that will 100 and the ten year treasury yield this morning is trading lower by six basis point city data level of 4.57% on the tenure. commodities we have been watching for any spike take a look at golden oil after israel strikes back at iran in retaliation for the last weakens attack. the limited strike targeting a nuclear facility ended airbase the price of gold at 2396 and change down a fraction in the price of oil at 8239, that is down as well. joining...
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maria: that was treasury secretary janet yellen speaking in beijing this morning. she expected to meet with china's former vice premier later today. yellen is claiming her exchanges with chinese officials over the last four days have advanced american interest with both sides committing to hold more economic talks. she's wrapping up her second trip to china with no major breakthroughs once again. joining me is gatestone institute senior fellow, author of the coming collapse of china and china is going to war, gordon chang back with me. great to see you. your reaction to janet yellen in china once again this week. >> when janet yellen says that our relationship with beijing is more stable, what she's really saying is she's agreed to more dialogue, for instance on overcapacity. but as we talk, the chinese delay. as they delay, we do not get to meeting full solutions and they -- meaningful solutions and they continue to the flood our markets with goods that are overly subsidized by the chinese government. this is a disas disaster for u. her words sound nice. we've bee
maria: that was treasury secretary janet yellen speaking in beijing this morning. she expected to meet with china's former vice premier later today. yellen is claiming her exchanges with chinese officials over the last four days have advanced american interest with both sides committing to hold more economic talks. she's wrapping up her second trip to china with no major breakthroughs once again. joining me is gatestone institute senior fellow, author of the coming collapse of china and china...
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Apr 10, 2024
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volcker himself breathed a sigh of relief when he was in the treasury they 1971. so you never know. anyone who pretends to know is either very young or is kidding himself or herself. maria: real quick before you go, would you put money to work in commodities today given that we've seen this runup, the momentum is there. does it have legs to keep going? >> let me say with respect to the gold market, the gold price itself, it's up, new records. what's lagging are the gold miners, i think it reflects a lack of interest in the sector on the part of western investors, americans in particular. if you're looking for a part of the market that is still value laden, with the assumption that the gold price stays where it is, does better, gold mining shares would seem to be a reasonable choice. maria: i actually got an idea you out of you on -- jim grant, it's great to see you. thank you so much. >> you're entirely welcome. maria: grant's interest rate observer founder, jim grant here. we'll be right back. t cashbackin. not a game! we're talking about cashbacking. we're talking about... we're n
volcker himself breathed a sigh of relief when he was in the treasury they 1971. so you never know. anyone who pretends to know is either very young or is kidding himself or herself. maria: real quick before you go, would you put money to work in commodities today given that we've seen this runup, the momentum is there. does it have legs to keep going? >> let me say with respect to the gold market, the gold price itself, it's up, new records. what's lagging are the gold miners, i think it...