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Mar 6, 2024
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we have testimony from jay powell. we have been unpacking that for you, two days of testimony kicks off today at 3:00 p.m. u.k. time. the bloomberg analysis is the expectation that powell will reiterate that patience around cuts. maybe he will remind investors and the market that the most likely next move is a cut rather than a hike. the resilience of the u.s. economy is something he is expected to articulate. jay powell with the testimony and potential market reaction to that, as of course, we came out of the gates at the front end of the year with expectations for as many as seven cuts, that has been pared back to three right now. job openings will build out the picture on the labor market in the united states. coming up, we will speak to the dhl group ceo to discuss the logistics company's earnings. some details around the shareholder buyback as well. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ tom: welcome back now. though u.k. chancellor is expected to cut two percentage points from the payroll tax national insurance in his spring
we have testimony from jay powell. we have been unpacking that for you, two days of testimony kicks off today at 3:00 p.m. u.k. time. the bloomberg analysis is the expectation that powell will reiterate that patience around cuts. maybe he will remind investors and the market that the most likely next move is a cut rather than a hike. the resilience of the u.s. economy is something he is expected to articulate. jay powell with the testimony and potential market reaction to that, as of course, we...
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Mar 4, 2024
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jay powell will be giving testimony. u.k. budget on wednesday and on thursday an update to the forecast. yields up, selling pressure for treasuries. up a 10th of a percent on the euro. bitcoin crossed above 64,000. currently flat and we will get more details because oil steadied after opec-plus extended production cuts. let's bring in bloomberg energy reporter. how is the market reacting to the extension. what will the reaction look like? >> terry reaction is they are not seeing prices search. if this were an opec-plus cut, maybe we get more price reaction but there is a view in the market that there is still froth in the market, excess supply. demand is not able to eat up the oil being produced so a continuation of cuts was expected. this provides a floor on prices, it's not a bearish situation and this is not happened yet. that leads to a situation where prices could stabilize depending on other parts of the market. tom: putting a floor on the market. what is the focus for the oil market beyond this announcement? >> tension
jay powell will be giving testimony. u.k. budget on wednesday and on thursday an update to the forecast. yields up, selling pressure for treasuries. up a 10th of a percent on the euro. bitcoin crossed above 64,000. currently flat and we will get more details because oil steadied after opec-plus extended production cuts. let's bring in bloomberg energy reporter. how is the market reacting to the extension. what will the reaction look like? >> terry reaction is they are not seeing prices...
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Mar 6, 2024
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jay powell again signaling rate cuts will happen this year. the fed chair suggesting significant changes to the capital plans fiercely opposed by wall street banks. haidi: struggling lender n.y.c. b. getting a vote of confidence. annabelle: china's top economic officials defend their ambitious target and hint at a liquidity boost to help get there. haidi: let's get you straight to the markets. a pretty reasonable set up in asia and we have a bit of downside as we get into the first part of the staggered trading session here in sydney, about .2% author straight into the middle of trade. we are expecting a rise across the region. interest rates will likely fall this year. there's been so much managing of excitation 10 -- excitations in terms of the timing and the extent of easing we can expect from the fed and we have seen some of that drastic repositioning within certain parts of the market as well. so we are watching the dollar that fell to a mom -- a one-month low after the soft u.s. jobs data and that congressional testimony from jay powell
jay powell again signaling rate cuts will happen this year. the fed chair suggesting significant changes to the capital plans fiercely opposed by wall street banks. haidi: struggling lender n.y.c. b. getting a vote of confidence. annabelle: china's top economic officials defend their ambitious target and hint at a liquidity boost to help get there. haidi: let's get you straight to the markets. a pretty reasonable set up in asia and we have a bit of downside as we get into the first part of the...
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Mar 7, 2024
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stocks mixed in asia after fed chair jay powell said he still expects u.s. interest rates to fall this year. let's bring in former bloomberg's mliv team. what will the takeaway be from the fed meeting later this month, what did you take from what we heard from jay powell? >> good morning. i think that the fed unleashed a lot of spirits on the markets. when they did a dovish dot plot indicating three rate cuts in 2024. since then, the incoming data has shown the economy is doing well with the cumulative great heights -- rate hikes we have seen. the labor market is still going strong. the disinflationary narrative that we saw has stalled for now. so there is hardly any incentive for the fed to greenlight those three rate cuts that they signaled again when they meet in march. i think that they will take back one of the rate cuts that they had penciled in. that will leave us with two great cuts. that ties into what the cash carrier has said recently. i do think there is a hawkish out that we should expect from the fed this month. tom: that's really interesting.
stocks mixed in asia after fed chair jay powell said he still expects u.s. interest rates to fall this year. let's bring in former bloomberg's mliv team. what will the takeaway be from the fed meeting later this month, what did you take from what we heard from jay powell? >> good morning. i think that the fed unleashed a lot of spirits on the markets. when they did a dovish dot plot indicating three rate cuts in 2024. since then, the incoming data has shown the economy is doing well with...
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Mar 12, 2024
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what the next meeting what will we hear from jay powell? it's all about timing. tom: bloomberg's jill, thank you, indeed. we talk about fiscal stimulus we have to think about the budget plans. a budget proposal would deliver more services, tax breaks and price controls funded through taxes on the wealthy. what is standing out to you? >> how you get the ballooning deficit under control, the biden administration is $1.6 trillion per year, addressing the deficit. 1.6 trillion over the decade. bidens approaches to tax corporations. corporations, anyone getting a lot of revenue including european corporations that get revenue from the united states. trying to stem the hemorrhaging. and a lot of pushback from the gop. the only big major change was an increase in defense spending, a smaller increase than some around the world. the kind of support he wants to give the lower middle class will not be helpful. at the end of the day you will remember the big selloff, a lot was centered around the fiscal deficit. if you can't get that under control the world suffers. tom: i t
what the next meeting what will we hear from jay powell? it's all about timing. tom: bloomberg's jill, thank you, indeed. we talk about fiscal stimulus we have to think about the budget plans. a budget proposal would deliver more services, tax breaks and price controls funded through taxes on the wealthy. what is standing out to you? >> how you get the ballooning deficit under control, the biden administration is $1.6 trillion per year, addressing the deficit. 1.6 trillion over the...
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Mar 18, 2024
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where fed chair jay powell has been reluctant to make a call on how the u.s. economy has changed since the pandemic. the feds economic projections for the long haul have hardly changed since 2019 and investors are growing frustrated over policymakers lack of conviction. furthermore, let's bring in our guest for some analysis from the big take and we know that there are risks to calling out any sort of changes or new futures in the u.s. economy, not least politically in the election year, but is that what is holding jay powell back at this point in time? >> it is interesting because i think what you are seeing here is a disconnect with what a lot of companies and investors are experiencing on the ground where they are saying this labor market resilience, this tightness they are experiencing seems like they are kind of settling in for the long haul and they are seeing that change in the overall economic picture. we really have not gotten that really robust forecast update from the fed in quite a while. at this point, traders are pricing in something like 3.5% lo
where fed chair jay powell has been reluctant to make a call on how the u.s. economy has changed since the pandemic. the feds economic projections for the long haul have hardly changed since 2019 and investors are growing frustrated over policymakers lack of conviction. furthermore, let's bring in our guest for some analysis from the big take and we know that there are risks to calling out any sort of changes or new futures in the u.s. economy, not least politically in the election year, but is...
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Mar 6, 2024
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this is the conversation we will have with jay powell. the question is if his threshold has changed if the january cpi concerned him in the way it seems to be concerning the market. jonathan: at 10:00 a.m. eastern time, the services isn came out weaker than expected. the employment component come the appetizer for the payroll support, back into negative territory. lisa: 48 from 50.5. when you look at some of the business orders there is more positive signs. if the employment is weaker, this speaks to the suspicion that so many people have raised on this show that things are weaker than they seem. take a look at some of the other indicators. it is not that great. this may be give them some fuel. jonathan: so far february has not confirmed january going and payrolls friday. before payrolls friday we need to talk about super tuesday and reality check wednesday for nikki haley. annmarie: she is at this moment undecided and what she will do in the sense that her campaign seems very combative talking about unity that isn't there within the repu
this is the conversation we will have with jay powell. the question is if his threshold has changed if the january cpi concerned him in the way it seems to be concerning the market. jonathan: at 10:00 a.m. eastern time, the services isn came out weaker than expected. the employment component come the appetizer for the payroll support, back into negative territory. lisa: 48 from 50.5. when you look at some of the business orders there is more positive signs. if the employment is weaker, this...
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Mar 28, 2024
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and the speech from jay powell. nasdaq futures pointing lower. let's let cross asset, we saw a bit of a selloff across u.s. treasuries on the back of comments from chris waller. he wants more data before he is that confidence. he argues you can push out those cuts into the future. two year 460. the japanese yen continues to gain our interest on the intervention to risks from japanese officials, 151.34. 152 seems to be the light of the sent. brent, it is six dollars per barrel, a bit of again after the softness on oil prices of .4 of 1%. gold up .10 of 1%. let's take a close look at 2024's first quarter. kriti gupta brings the context. the year has brought currency surprises. >> surprises but not surprises, it is an easy story when you look at the japanese yen, the swiss franc, the underperforming conference -- currencies that create the basis of the carry trade that creates complacency in this market. it is easy to grab yield and the fx space if you were going short the yen or swiss franc, and that is spend the theme in the first quarter despite
and the speech from jay powell. nasdaq futures pointing lower. let's let cross asset, we saw a bit of a selloff across u.s. treasuries on the back of comments from chris waller. he wants more data before he is that confidence. he argues you can push out those cuts into the future. two year 460. the japanese yen continues to gain our interest on the intervention to risks from japanese officials, 151.34. 152 seems to be the light of the sent. brent, it is six dollars per barrel, a bit of again...
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Mar 20, 2024
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that is the question for jay powell. but markets are trying to put this strong economy together with where the fed is and see if they line up. for the moment it looks like they do but of course we have to wait and see what the chair says. lisa: do you think that he will come out and say i'm sorry, i was wrong and maybe financial conditions are loosening a little bit too much? >> anything is possible the generally one doesn't hear that from fed officials. the question is, are financial conditions loosening enough or too much at this point? the economy is stronger than people anticipates that there is a logical action of whether the fed funds rate is tight enough at this point. and whether they think they need to do more if the economy stays this strong or whether it is just a question of keeping it where it is for longer. that is a question for powell. the one other thing we might look for here is whether they changed the long run fed funds, the neutral rate. has that moved up, it is it now higher than it was? it has been
that is the question for jay powell. but markets are trying to put this strong economy together with where the fed is and see if they line up. for the moment it looks like they do but of course we have to wait and see what the chair says. lisa: do you think that he will come out and say i'm sorry, i was wrong and maybe financial conditions are loosening a little bit too much? >> anything is possible the generally one doesn't hear that from fed officials. the question is, are financial...
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Mar 20, 2024
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eastern with fed chair jay powell set to speak at 2:30 p.m. and rates are expected to remain on hold the fomc will release a new dot plot and projections. still expecting three cuts this year with a dovish chair powell despite a string of hotter than expected inflation prints since the last meeting. if you been missing the coverage over the last week on the dot plot, it will on the -- it will only take two officials of the federal reserve to come up and that will change the median. from three to 2. is that a big deal given the direction of travel over the last few months? lisa: we are talking about eight of 19 fed officials. this is how closely people are scrutinizing this. they have two rate cuts priced in rather than three. if two more join that, then you have a baseline. i'm interested in the longer run and how they telegraphed a longer-term inflation expectation of longer-term rate expectations for next year in the year after. do they expect neutral not getting higher but not being able to cut is much longer-term? jonathan: do you think th
eastern with fed chair jay powell set to speak at 2:30 p.m. and rates are expected to remain on hold the fomc will release a new dot plot and projections. still expecting three cuts this year with a dovish chair powell despite a string of hotter than expected inflation prints since the last meeting. if you been missing the coverage over the last week on the dot plot, it will on the -- it will only take two officials of the federal reserve to come up and that will change the median. from three...
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Mar 15, 2024
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tom: whether jay powell lobbies the fomc, it is risk off. i'll are up. is it about the narrative around stinky u.s. inflation? >> it is partly what you mentioned, the slide bitcoin triggered a broader move of people saying bitcoin is giving up gains. we should pare before a huge week. hong kong stocks having a bad day. equity markets are down copper is doing well but iron ore is not. people are adjusting all the huge things coming. maybe it is better to be on the sidelines. if you're looking for excuses for taking money off the table, there are plenty. tom: complexity on this day with divergence. thank you, fascinating. of course mark is one of our key strategists. here is what we are looking at today. final french cpi for february. survey is looking at 0.9% and we will see if that comes in. dovish commentary from some officials and inflation data are out of france is crucial to the assessment. 2:00 p.m. u.k. time we switch to the u.s.. university of michigan sentiment survey suggesting retail sales were softer. whether the university of michigan sentime
tom: whether jay powell lobbies the fomc, it is risk off. i'll are up. is it about the narrative around stinky u.s. inflation? >> it is partly what you mentioned, the slide bitcoin triggered a broader move of people saying bitcoin is giving up gains. we should pare before a huge week. hong kong stocks having a bad day. equity markets are down copper is doing well but iron ore is not. people are adjusting all the huge things coming. maybe it is better to be on the sidelines. if you're...
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Mar 7, 2024
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jay powell indicating they are looking to cut rates. not quite just yet but the path is pretty much the same when we thought we were on already. haidi: maybe not so palpable as any sense of relief when it comes to investors looking at china. we have seen policymakers across the board kind of hitting back, defending that around 5% gdp target, saying it is attainable and there is room for further cut rrr and the other thing of course we are watching is japan, this kind of rapid positioning for lift off from the boj and those wage numbers were not too bad. annabelle: certainly, actually pretty much stronger than what had been expected because we saw cash earnings rising to percent and that was a lot more than what the survey had been for a gain of 1.2% but this is the start of trading here we have got with the broader index or the nikkei 225 that is back above the 40,000 marked them. we have been fractionally below that over the course of the week but certainly, the stock moves we are seeing here echoing the u.s. session overnight as we di
jay powell indicating they are looking to cut rates. not quite just yet but the path is pretty much the same when we thought we were on already. haidi: maybe not so palpable as any sense of relief when it comes to investors looking at china. we have seen policymakers across the board kind of hitting back, defending that around 5% gdp target, saying it is attainable and there is room for further cut rrr and the other thing of course we are watching is japan, this kind of rapid positioning for...
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Mar 18, 2024
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if jay powell says this is absolutely going to move the opposite direction and keep us higher for longer. stocks are going to take a hit. they just aren't necessarily going to execute that right now. i thought that was perfect. >> equities on the s&p. positive by 0.8% on the s&p 500. in the bond market yields just aggressively high through last week. still 430 on the 10 year. coming up this hour, monica descends on where she thinks stocks have to run. isaac bolt and ski on tariffs for chinese ev's. in the former fed economist claudia looking ahead to wednesdays bankrate -- fed rate decision. the stock market hitting ahead of the decision. monica saying we need to acknowledge the strong start to the year with the s&p 500 not only a few percent away from the 2024 price target but also arguing for more selectivity and being thoughtful if you're still sitting on too much cash. we believe stocks will make new highs. monica joins us in new york. good morning to you. new highs in this equity market. talk to me about how you put cash to work? monica: the challenge has been certainty. the fed is
if jay powell says this is absolutely going to move the opposite direction and keep us higher for longer. stocks are going to take a hit. they just aren't necessarily going to execute that right now. i thought that was perfect. >> equities on the s&p. positive by 0.8% on the s&p 500. in the bond market yields just aggressively high through last week. still 430 on the 10 year. coming up this hour, monica descends on where she thinks stocks have to run. isaac bolt and ski on tariffs...
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Mar 4, 2024
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annmarie: we will get jay powell in front of the house, super tuesday tomorrow. not so super tuesday. it is all but done. the biggest will be the state of the union. in terms of bidens performance, poll after poll says he is losing voters in terms of how they feel about him, the one seagate in 2020. for me it is less what he says but how he says it. the washington post says keep the state of the union shorter. jonathan: unemployment at 4% for more than two years based on the data friday and somehow he cannot connect with the electorate. somehow the electorate thinks the economy is doing poorly. lisa: this electorate has a lot of issues. you cannot speak of the electorate as a monolith. you have people grappling with prices much higher than a couple years ago. you talk about the buildup, the residual kinds of inflation. there are social issues. there is a feeling of which political party you belong to. there's a feeling of which media you are tucked into. these are things you are real. jonathan: if you are hooked into bloomberg we can talk about all-time highs wit
annmarie: we will get jay powell in front of the house, super tuesday tomorrow. not so super tuesday. it is all but done. the biggest will be the state of the union. in terms of bidens performance, poll after poll says he is losing voters in terms of how they feel about him, the one seagate in 2020. for me it is less what he says but how he says it. the washington post says keep the state of the union shorter. jonathan: unemployment at 4% for more than two years based on the data friday and...
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Mar 3, 2024
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investors are awaiting jay powell's report to congress for dates on the fed rate outlook. haidi: ahead opec-plus extending its supply cutbacks until midyear amid soaring production from rivals and uncertainty over chinese demand. stephen: in beijing, one of china's most important gatherings of the year is about to begin with leaders set to unveil their targets and strategies, perhaps policies, for road -- reviving the economy. annabelle: kicking of the week with breaking data out of korea this morning. we have industrial output numbers dropping but coming in better than expected over the course of january. output of more than 12% or 13% on the year passing estimate were 10%. also industrial output is falling, still and a contraction down 1.3%. the estimate had been .9%. the headline reading, the year on your number is certainly a lot better than what had been predicted by economists. it could be down to the drive for strong external demand for chips, for automobiles. one of the concerns with that is when you have a narrow cap, that small group of industries posing a risk t
investors are awaiting jay powell's report to congress for dates on the fed rate outlook. haidi: ahead opec-plus extending its supply cutbacks until midyear amid soaring production from rivals and uncertainty over chinese demand. stephen: in beijing, one of china's most important gatherings of the year is about to begin with leaders set to unveil their targets and strategies, perhaps policies, for road -- reviving the economy. annabelle: kicking of the week with breaking data out of korea this...
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Mar 5, 2024
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looking at the 10-year yield, off by seven basis points as we anticipate jay powell's speech. a look at what is happening in the asset class we need to talk about today. this happened just after 9:00 a.m., but we are looking at a 66 back to it at the moment. we had that psychological level. already we have seen the market capitalization eclipsed that of 2021 because there is more big going in -- more bitcoin in supply. we are currently up 9.9% the course of what has been a mega run throughout 2024. 2023, lower, in the doldrums. but we are back at that level we had in november 2021. ed, what are you watching? caroline: there is a lot -- ed: there is a lot in the news flow hitting technology shares. tesla, a fire near its berlin plant has halted production. investigators are investigating whether arson was the cause. data on china is a softer, showing that sales of tesla not as strong. that stock under pressure. two other stories. we are going to head to d.c.. bloomberg reporting that u.s. officials are going to block amd selling a made for china lower-spec gpu. it is something
looking at the 10-year yield, off by seven basis points as we anticipate jay powell's speech. a look at what is happening in the asset class we need to talk about today. this happened just after 9:00 a.m., but we are looking at a 66 back to it at the moment. we had that psychological level. already we have seen the market capitalization eclipsed that of 2021 because there is more big going in -- more bitcoin in supply. we are currently up 9.9% the course of what has been a mega run throughout...
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Mar 25, 2024
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jay powell seems dovish. what is your take away with the fed? >> good morning. the comments have to be taken in the context of cuts. he may be talking about later in the year, slower pace, but they will cut if the dater allows it. we have a central bank willing to cut and people are not worried. they said maybe no cuts at all this year. the market seems happy to tolerate that. no big changes in the dot plots. the market is looking for interest rates. switch the focus to talk about jobs data. that gives the fed a caveat to move. lower rates on the horizon. tom: how are the markets interpreting the messages from the boe, ecb, s&p? is the take that doves are in control? paul: it feels like they fired the starting gun. it is the same mentality and noise traders are hearing. at the top of the show, people betting on short-term interest rates relative to long-term. maybe we can undo the yield curve. the market has been wrong several times. a stopped clock trade will be right eventually. this is volatility sliding, credit spreads type and exuberance in equities, so eve
jay powell seems dovish. what is your take away with the fed? >> good morning. the comments have to be taken in the context of cuts. he may be talking about later in the year, slower pace, but they will cut if the dater allows it. we have a central bank willing to cut and people are not worried. they said maybe no cuts at all this year. the market seems happy to tolerate that. no big changes in the dot plots. the market is looking for interest rates. switch the focus to talk about jobs...
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Mar 18, 2024
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what we are going to hear from jay powell signaling around rate cuts. . we are seeing changing expectations. june had been seen most likely until a couple days ago. that is getting priced out as are the number of cuts we can expect for 2024. in the intraday session, it was the focus on tech. we mentioned the news around alphabet with the iphone in the headlights. what i am tracking closely today is nvidia. so much of the rally has been predicated on the success of nvidia. the demand for its ai chip. now the successor to that coming out at the successor event. we will have more on that ahead this out. haidi: let's go back to the highly anticipated boj decision in the next few hours. stephen engle is with us live outside the central bank building in tokyo. this is a potentially monumental day for the bank of japan. >> absolutely. have been at bloomberg 20 plus years and this is probably the most significant change at the boj in one fell swoop in those 20 years. we have had inflation persistent and we are seeing a lift off perhaps of rates later today when t
what we are going to hear from jay powell signaling around rate cuts. . we are seeing changing expectations. june had been seen most likely until a couple days ago. that is getting priced out as are the number of cuts we can expect for 2024. in the intraday session, it was the focus on tech. we mentioned the news around alphabet with the iphone in the headlights. what i am tracking closely today is nvidia. so much of the rally has been predicated on the success of nvidia. the demand for its ai...
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Mar 26, 2024
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slightly at odds with what we've been hearing from jay powell. we look at the comments coming through, the analysis coming through strategist at j.p. morgan, warning that equities are rich at this point in terms of the valuations. what does all of it mean for the stock markets and for effects as you follow all of that in? mark: for the equity market, they are more likely to take in their stride from anybody because the equity market has already factored in -- u.s. interest rates are not going to rise, as long as they keep to the primus, at least the next move -- it does not matter where the next move comes in, as long as yields don't go much higher, equity markets factor in, the american economy is strong. job situation is good. companies are making money and there's an ai story on top of all that. equities are probably in the best place to continue to do what they are doing, regardless of how the short-term data comes out. one that could react as well as the bond market is the currency market. we are already seeing reasonable amount of dollars s
slightly at odds with what we've been hearing from jay powell. we look at the comments coming through, the analysis coming through strategist at j.p. morgan, warning that equities are rich at this point in terms of the valuations. what does all of it mean for the stock markets and for effects as you follow all of that in? mark: for the equity market, they are more likely to take in their stride from anybody because the equity market has already factored in -- u.s. interest rates are not going...
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Mar 14, 2024
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annmarie: jay powell continue says at some point this year we will be cutting. does that change to later this year? does the timeline just get pushed back? jay: i think it does. the inflation rate is trending lower. it is not coming down as much as people would like it to be but what is happening is the inflation rate continues to come down in the fed remaining on hold, the real fed funds rate is passively going higher and that is acting as a passive tightening on the overall economy. in some sense they need to be cutting rates. maybe not in may or june or july, but they need to be cutting rates later this year or you will have a passive tightening of monetary policy which could potentially slow things a lot more than people are expecting now. jonathan: appreciate your views this morning. jay bryson of wells fargo. it is part of the job if you're in that seat. you have to make a call on when the fed will cut. june feels meaningless to me. the correct answer has been later. much later than you thought. it was march and then it was may and then it was june. if you
annmarie: jay powell continue says at some point this year we will be cutting. does that change to later this year? does the timeline just get pushed back? jay: i think it does. the inflation rate is trending lower. it is not coming down as much as people would like it to be but what is happening is the inflation rate continues to come down in the fed remaining on hold, the real fed funds rate is passively going higher and that is acting as a passive tightening on the overall economy. in some...
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Mar 7, 2024
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jay powell saying we will make a lot of changes to this after a lot of lobbying. jonathan: day one was in front of the house financial services committee. date two was in front of the senate committee. the senator from massachusetts, elizabeth warren, i imagine elizabeth warren has follow-up questions about yesterday. lisa: i imagine she will not be particularly happy when people are looking for the potential of too big to fail. jp morgan surging when we still see this turmoil in community bank ongoing. has it become unduly punitive for these banks and how you create a scenario where there is not a gravitational force every which way at a time the smaller banks are facing a host of headwinds different from the big ones. jonathan: all-time high for jp morgan monday. record tuesday, record wednesday. nycb. new york community bank come at the lows down 47%. at the high we were up 37%. we were facing existential risk. we have a new ceo. this time we have received an equity investment from former treasury secretary steve mnuchin. lisa: this is amazing. the fluctuations
jay powell saying we will make a lot of changes to this after a lot of lobbying. jonathan: day one was in front of the house financial services committee. date two was in front of the senate committee. the senator from massachusetts, elizabeth warren, i imagine elizabeth warren has follow-up questions about yesterday. lisa: i imagine she will not be particularly happy when people are looking for the potential of too big to fail. jp morgan surging when we still see this turmoil in community bank...
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Mar 7, 2024
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haidi: a little optimism despite renewed focus on fed speak from fed chair jay powell. the outlook when it comes to some of these five flyers in the market as well. technology, a little question over how big the valuations can really continue going to improve from here. this is s&p futures. there's a little weakness there after the rally in the previous session. about .1% lower for the s&p rate. nasdaq futures off .3%. there are broadly positive signs from central banks. perhaps unsurprisingly we are seeing a bit of caution ahead of key jobs data. another data point in their journey to identifying a more certain path forward for the fed. crude in particular as well in this session, we saw a rally in oil continuing to pick up pace. a segment of the keystone pipeline shutting down. paul: two major central banks delivering fresh signals interest rate cuts are on the way. fed chair jerome powell telling the u.s. senate banking committee that policymakers are getting closer to the confidence they need to start easing. >> we are in the right place. we are waiting to become mo
haidi: a little optimism despite renewed focus on fed speak from fed chair jay powell. the outlook when it comes to some of these five flyers in the market as well. technology, a little question over how big the valuations can really continue going to improve from here. this is s&p futures. there's a little weakness there after the rally in the previous session. about .1% lower for the s&p rate. nasdaq futures off .3%. there are broadly positive signs from central banks. perhaps...
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Mar 21, 2024
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jay powell & co. sticking to three cuts for the year despite a string of hotter than expected inflation prince. some all caps posting with gold running about 2200 for the first time ever. chris, let's get to it. gold, what is that break off in gold all about going through 2200 for the first time ever? >> when you look back at the sequence of events the last several weeks let's first go back to january february where you had the decisive move in gold through 2100 and we found really notable these last two weeks as bond yields pushback higher and they go from four to about 435. gold did not flinch. it was a very orderly pause, the title is gold new. gold knew we would be getting a dovish fed yesterday. i think certainly the response speaks to that here. i think the backdrop remains polish in metals, bullish and materials and we see that with the expansion of new highs in things like copper, the material stocks. etc.. >> watch what they do and not what they say. when you look at what they are doing. is t
jay powell & co. sticking to three cuts for the year despite a string of hotter than expected inflation prince. some all caps posting with gold running about 2200 for the first time ever. chris, let's get to it. gold, what is that break off in gold all about going through 2200 for the first time ever? >> when you look back at the sequence of events the last several weeks let's first go back to january february where you had the decisive move in gold through 2100 and we found really...
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Mar 8, 2024
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averill: we have dovish signals from the ecb and from jay powell but on the boj, the message seems to be different. policymakers and the wage growth data we got in the week causing traders to brace for a move from the japanese central bank in two weeks. we see the yen gaining to at least a strongest level since the start of february. if you are wondering where we go from there on the yen, traders seem to think that they are on the downside. one month risk reversals, that rate showing us that. let's flip the board and take a look because there are implications on this yen rally. that is putting pressure on japanese stocks. nikkei raising gains of 1% from early on in the session. if you look at one of the gauges, the nikkei is the most sensitive to the yen move since 2022. flip the board again, i want to take you to what we see in the rest of asia as we talk about them clearing the uncertainties for markets, boosted risk appetite. msci hitting the highest level since 2022, the chipmakers surging to a record high ahead of february sales data. keeping a close watch on china amid the bond
averill: we have dovish signals from the ecb and from jay powell but on the boj, the message seems to be different. policymakers and the wage growth data we got in the week causing traders to brace for a move from the japanese central bank in two weeks. we see the yen gaining to at least a strongest level since the start of february. if you are wondering where we go from there on the yen, traders seem to think that they are on the downside. one month risk reversals, that rate showing us that....
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Mar 4, 2024
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traders await jay powell's congressional testimony and the u.s. jobs report. elon musk using the world's richest person crown to jeff bezos as tesla slumps. paul: also ahead, -- haidi: also ahead, the supreme court puts an end to attempts to keep donald trump off state ballots. >> i'm stephen engle in snowy beijing for the opening of the national people's congress. an openin -- a warning not to invest in china underscores the leaders. haidi: we have breaking news to kick off the hour. south korea gdp numbers coming through on the bloomberg. we are seeing when it comes to the revised fourth quarter number, the preliminary number when it comes to seasonally adjusted quarter on quarter coming in line with expectations. 6/10 of 1% higher. the year on year number in line with expectations. the annual gdp for 2023 at 1.4 percent. all of those readings are in line with expectations. we did see the preliminary numbers showing the same when it comes to the readings. we have seen relative resilience when it comes to things like exports driven by chipmakers in south kore
traders await jay powell's congressional testimony and the u.s. jobs report. elon musk using the world's richest person crown to jeff bezos as tesla slumps. paul: also ahead, -- haidi: also ahead, the supreme court puts an end to attempts to keep donald trump off state ballots. >> i'm stephen engle in snowy beijing for the opening of the national people's congress. an openin -- a warning not to invest in china underscores the leaders. haidi: we have breaking news to kick off the hour....
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Mar 12, 2024
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fed chair jay powell mentioned we are not too far from that confidence and we are expecting to see that disinflation trend resuming in the coming months. and that should lead to the fed easing monetary policy. it is not going to be a fast process. you are going to proceed very carefully. but we expect to see rate cuts this year as inflation continues to come down. and the fed really wants to balance the risk of keeping interest rates too high for too long and risking some damage to the economy and potentially a deeper economic slowdown. or a recession. haidi: the jobs numbers on friday was also quite perplexing for the market. we saw that pretty immediate reaction. i wonder how you are seeing this being conveyed through the strength of the u.s. consumer? are there any concerns at this point? lydia: yeah, the labor market showed continued resilience. i think the february report came as sending some reassuring signal. payrolls remain quite solid. but on these -- but at the same time we saw softening beneath the headline print. we get more rebalancing and further easing in wage growth. we
fed chair jay powell mentioned we are not too far from that confidence and we are expecting to see that disinflation trend resuming in the coming months. and that should lead to the fed easing monetary policy. it is not going to be a fast process. you are going to proceed very carefully. but we expect to see rate cuts this year as inflation continues to come down. and the fed really wants to balance the risk of keeping interest rates too high for too long and risking some damage to the economy...
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Mar 21, 2024
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. >> that's why jay powell had to look to the >> rate yesterday in the jolts -- the quits rate in the jolts to to yesterday to find weakness in the labor market. >> how do you find data that we are sufficiently restrictive? quits apparently. stephanie roth join us. michael mckee will bring the data. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ ameritrade is now part of schwab. bringing you an elevated experience, tailor-made for trader minds. go deeper with thinkorswim: our award-wining trading platforms. unlock support from the schwab trade desk, our team of passionate traders who live and breathe trading. and sharpen your skills with an immersive online education crafted just for traders. all so you can trade brilliantly. ♪♪ hello, mia. are you ready to meet your demise? man, we really need to upgrade your trash talk. ♪♪ nice shot... shot... taker. who programmed you?! i'll see you tomorrow. the future isn't scary, not investing in it is. 100 innovative companies, one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges expenses and mor
. >> that's why jay powell had to look to the >> rate yesterday in the jolts -- the quits rate in the jolts to to yesterday to find weakness in the labor market. >> how do you find data that we are sufficiently restrictive? quits apparently. stephanie roth join us. michael mckee will bring the data. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ ameritrade is now part of schwab. bringing you an elevated experience, tailor-made for trader minds. go deeper with thinkorswim: our...
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Mar 15, 2024
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jonathan: you get fed speak this coming week with a jay powell news conference wednesday afternoon. let's get to an update on stories elsewhere. >> a mas proposing what it's calling a comprehensive cease-fire deal as it tries to make progress on talks with israel. it was see the fraying of hostages including israeli women, children, the elderly and those who are ill. this is an exchange for the release of up to 1000 palestinian prisoners. the israeli prime minister says militant group is still making unrestricted -- unrealistic demands. the country's war cabinet is expected to discuss the work proposal today. shares of adobe or falling in the premarket after posting a weak sales outlet. the guidance is fueling concerns of new ai focus startups threatening its market share. the company has been integrating its proprietary ai model firefly into its top products like photoshop and illustrator. a recent demonstration by openai of its video generation model is fueling concerns about competition. bitcoin is retreating from its latest record high. there is an intensifying debate about whet
jonathan: you get fed speak this coming week with a jay powell news conference wednesday afternoon. let's get to an update on stories elsewhere. >> a mas proposing what it's calling a comprehensive cease-fire deal as it tries to make progress on talks with israel. it was see the fraying of hostages including israeli women, children, the elderly and those who are ill. this is an exchange for the release of up to 1000 palestinian prisoners. the israeli prime minister says militant group is...
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Mar 28, 2024
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mike: i'm going with jay powell. jonathan: easy to go with. [laughter] mike: he said would -- we would get a .3% rise and i have no doubt in their analysis. this is of course on a year-over-year basis, which is what the fed is following. chris waller said the same thing last night and as he pointed out, the october to december average was about .03 percent, rather than 3/10 percent. so, it's 10 times higher in january and it would be the same this month. that suggests some progress has halted, if not gone the other way. jonathan: there are 54 estimates on the terminal and only five of them say anything other than 0.3%. i wonder why? and you just basically guess pc from ppi? mike: you can. inflation numbers are some of the best from economists. there might be a surprise in one or the other that push it 1/10 of one way or the other, but if you notice, there are only a certain number that say anything other than 3/10, but it is not a wide dispersion. jonathan: true. tiffany joins us now with more. let's start with the data tomorrow and then we ca
mike: i'm going with jay powell. jonathan: easy to go with. [laughter] mike: he said would -- we would get a .3% rise and i have no doubt in their analysis. this is of course on a year-over-year basis, which is what the fed is following. chris waller said the same thing last night and as he pointed out, the october to december average was about .03 percent, rather than 3/10 percent. so, it's 10 times higher in january and it would be the same this month. that suggests some progress has halted,...
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Mar 8, 2024
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which is why jay powell had that look on his face. lisa: everyone listening who has no idea what you are talking about. jonathan: sometimes indisposition, you have to assume a little knowledge. in this instance, they can google it. they have four minutes until the jobs numbers comes out. jobs number up next. 200,000 is the estimate. employment report just around the corner. i think he's having a midlife crisis i'm not. you got us t-mobile home internet lite. after a week of streaming they knocked us down... ...to dial up speeds. like from the 90s. great times. all i can do say is that my life is pre-- i like watching the puddles gather rain. -hey, your mom and i procreated to that song. oh, ew! i think you've said enough. why don't we just switch to xfinity like everyone else? then you would know what year it was. i know what year it is. jonathan: the payroll support 24 seconds away. equity market looks like this. all time highs going into the print. down 1% on the s&p. nasdaq, -.2%. 2-year yield down three basis points. 4.47. daniell
which is why jay powell had that look on his face. lisa: everyone listening who has no idea what you are talking about. jonathan: sometimes indisposition, you have to assume a little knowledge. in this instance, they can google it. they have four minutes until the jobs numbers comes out. jobs number up next. 200,000 is the estimate. employment report just around the corner. i think he's having a midlife crisis i'm not. you got us t-mobile home internet lite. after a week of streaming they...
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Mar 8, 2024
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yesterday jay powell addressed that threat. >> this is a problem we will be working on for years more. there will be bank failures but this is not the big banks. it is not a first-order issue for any of the large banks. it is more smaller and medium-sized banks that have these issues. sonali: will discuss the broader market with debbie cafaro with a focus on senior housing. we brought you in with your community bank with the thinking the regional banking system and the tightness you are seeing when you're thinking about the broader sector and the tightening of those lending conditions, what kind of impact is there at the end of the day? debbie: thank you for having me. we are in the health care in senior living business so we have incredible demand which is different from a lot of the commercial real estate space. there are definitely tightening financial conditions because of commercial real estate loans in the financial sector. those are concentrated in those smaller banks. the 20 and blows that hold most of that debt. we are using that as an opportunity because we are the second la
yesterday jay powell addressed that threat. >> this is a problem we will be working on for years more. there will be bank failures but this is not the big banks. it is not a first-order issue for any of the large banks. it is more smaller and medium-sized banks that have these issues. sonali: will discuss the broader market with debbie cafaro with a focus on senior housing. we brought you in with your community bank with the thinking the regional banking system and the tightness you are...
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Mar 18, 2024
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no respect to jay powell. it could end up being a huge yon and we could wind up being back or we started but this rally, since october with big tech, it's been one leg it and nvidia has led the charge. i don't think we can afford a rebuff from nvidia here. the rally, broadening out a bit, but it's early days. nvidia -- jonathan: nvidia feels fundamentally driven given the numbers it has been putting up. with broadening out, how fundamentally driven is the rotation? rosa: -- ben: pretty fundamental. we have had lower s&p for two weeks, equal weight hitting the first of all time last week. euro stocks outperforming s&p. i think it's happening. it's happening because earnings either haven't been as bad as expected and the rest of the world, or the outlook is looking a little bit better the closer that we get to rate cuts. i still think that those cuts are coming. earnings have been over delivering. rate cuts have been pushed back for the right reason, so to speak, with growth better-than-expected. lisa: what woul
no respect to jay powell. it could end up being a huge yon and we could wind up being back or we started but this rally, since october with big tech, it's been one leg it and nvidia has led the charge. i don't think we can afford a rebuff from nvidia here. the rally, broadening out a bit, but it's early days. nvidia -- jonathan: nvidia feels fundamentally driven given the numbers it has been putting up. with broadening out, how fundamentally driven is the rotation? rosa: -- ben: pretty...
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Mar 22, 2024
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let's hear directly from jay powell himself, with his take. >> we believe that we are at the peak for the tightening cycle and if the economy evolves broadly as expected, it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at some point this year. the economic outlook is uncertain, however, and we are highly attentive to inflation risks. vonnie: joining us now, marianne and matt, thank you for joining. after having seen what we saw this week, are your thoughts on where we are headed rate-wise any different? marianne: as for me, no. the fed has been very clear in their process since last year. what is amazing, as you pointed out, the market continues to look for rate cuts. the equity markets did well, fixed income had some bucking, and there is still some of that in the fixed income markets now, but the equity markets are not paying attention to that at all, because we have earnings. although rates are important to part of the valuation of the markets, the markets, i think, are riding on earnings and the anticipation of productivity enhancements from ai, though we are
let's hear directly from jay powell himself, with his take. >> we believe that we are at the peak for the tightening cycle and if the economy evolves broadly as expected, it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at some point this year. the economic outlook is uncertain, however, and we are highly attentive to inflation risks. vonnie: joining us now, marianne and matt, thank you for joining. after having seen what we saw this week, are your thoughts on where we...
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Mar 7, 2024
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i do not think that jay powell will give us a lot of direction in that regard either. that is what you would look for at this point. sonali: michael mckee and liz mccormick, a busy couple of days and hours. we will go to capitol hill where the fed chair is testifying to the senate banking committee. >> why shouldn't the fed act now for workers to lose their jobs rather than reacting after the fact? chair powell: we are well aware and very conscious of avoiding it. what we expect and what we are seeing is continued strong growth and labor market and continuing progress and bringing inflation down. if that happens and the economy evolves over that path and we do think that the process of carefully removing the restrictive stance and policy will and can begin over the course of this year. sen. brown: i know we have had this conversation publicly or privately, and also that you know that working people are hit the hardest with inflation and when companies try to cut costs with layoffs. this town seems to too often forget that maximum employment is part of the fed's dual ma
i do not think that jay powell will give us a lot of direction in that regard either. that is what you would look for at this point. sonali: michael mckee and liz mccormick, a busy couple of days and hours. we will go to capitol hill where the fed chair is testifying to the senate banking committee. >> why shouldn't the fed act now for workers to lose their jobs rather than reacting after the fact? chair powell: we are well aware and very conscious of avoiding it. what we expect and what...
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Mar 8, 2024
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jay powell was so interesting in what he said because he said they are waiting to gain confidence and they are not far off gaining the confidence. as that becomes more entrenched we can see the two year move lower. that is more returns for investors. sonali: how do you think about not just the two-year, but you did see movement in the 10 year. there is still uncertainty. >> i think where investors want to be moving towards, and that is what we are finding in fund flows is the intermediate part of the curve. investors moving to the belly of the curve. that is where you are earning the most amount of duration as well as coupon. as you look out further, past the seven year points. looking at tens and 20's and 30's, there can be an expectation of further steepening. that can continue. a lot of supplied to contend with. i think investors are better off right now given the strength of economic data, given there is so many questions about the decelerating path in flesh and, you want to clip your coupon top you want to do that in active funds within the high-yield and em spaces. ed: -- sonali
jay powell was so interesting in what he said because he said they are waiting to gain confidence and they are not far off gaining the confidence. as that becomes more entrenched we can see the two year move lower. that is more returns for investors. sonali: how do you think about not just the two-year, but you did see movement in the 10 year. there is still uncertainty. >> i think where investors want to be moving towards, and that is what we are finding in fund flows is the intermediate...
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Mar 5, 2024
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mixed economic data in the run-up to jay powell testimony to congress over the next couple of days. a lot in play, let's take a look at the markets here. a lot of red on the screen. s&p 500 broken down about a 10th of 1% on the day. the nasdaq 100 all of session lows but close to them. down about 1.5% on the day so far. the semiconductor index, about 1.7%, also down on the day. a breath of relief year after hitting all-time highs for these indexes. the two yields breaking down below 4.60, well below. about a three basis point move but remember we were still above 4.60 just yesterday. weaker dana driving those higher, the testimony to congress. the u.s. dollar breathing a sigh of relief after reaching a record on the day here. still up 7/10 of 1% off the highs of the day but still getting event. bitcoin is getting off of record highs. it did indeed touch that record but has now fallen very meaningfully to that $64,000 level, down now about 4.6%. we are talking about apple continuing its decline helping to lead a lot of those tech heavyweights stocks. that decline after apple sales in
mixed economic data in the run-up to jay powell testimony to congress over the next couple of days. a lot in play, let's take a look at the markets here. a lot of red on the screen. s&p 500 broken down about a 10th of 1% on the day. the nasdaq 100 all of session lows but close to them. down about 1.5% on the day so far. the semiconductor index, about 1.7%, also down on the day. a breath of relief year after hitting all-time highs for these indexes. the two yields breaking down below 4.60,...
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Mar 12, 2024
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services x housing is the jay powell indicator, the white line. the issue for the fed is that it's down a little bit but hasn't come down enough to make them competent in cutting rates. sonali: thank you for your time and analysis. you do that better than anybody else. with inflation coming in hot, or not depending on who you ask, let's discuss how to invest across asset classes. tony, there are so many ways that you can play the inflation story. when you look at what your clients are doing, how are they looking at assets outside of equities to capture this uncertainty in inflation? tony: it is great to be here. in general, our investors are looking to diversify with alternative investments to hedge against inflation. some areas, for example, like real estate come historically over the long-term has been a good hedge against inflation and delivered good returns. short-term, that inflation, keeping the rates higher, puts stress on new deals or existing real estate. it is about choosing the right spots within the real estate market to play. we think
services x housing is the jay powell indicator, the white line. the issue for the fed is that it's down a little bit but hasn't come down enough to make them competent in cutting rates. sonali: thank you for your time and analysis. you do that better than anybody else. with inflation coming in hot, or not depending on who you ask, let's discuss how to invest across asset classes. tony, there are so many ways that you can play the inflation story. when you look at what your clients are doing,...
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Mar 21, 2024
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thank you, jay powell. the stars seem to be aligning and we are seeing 2% gains across the board. csi 300 not as well but still we are in the green. david: the stars have aligned quite nicely, really looking at markets today. it is playing out in japan, where really they hiked but did they cut? i'm just checking my statistics to get this, but i think we are at a near record in the nikkei to 25, thereabouts-- the nikkei 225. thereabouts. we are talking about earlier, the governor and parliament discussing really that the risk was to them and why they decided to move yesterday. if they had waited longer, they would built up some risk. that is out the door. as you can see, the broad-based rally, the bulls are out across
thank you, jay powell. the stars seem to be aligning and we are seeing 2% gains across the board. csi 300 not as well but still we are in the green. david: the stars have aligned quite nicely, really looking at markets today. it is playing out in japan, where really they hiked but did they cut? i'm just checking my statistics to get this, but i think we are at a near record in the nikkei to 25, thereabouts-- the nikkei 225. thereabouts. we are talking about earlier, the governor and parliament...
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Mar 15, 2024
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lisa: are you saying the biggest rest -- risk cases for jay powell to say i care about equities? >> the biggest risk for next week is we all look at the 2024 dot and it says 50, not 75 basis points worth of rate cuts and it triggers a more dramatic bear market. jonathan: that would still imply 75 basis points. is it 50 or 75 next week? >> base case is 75 but there is a real risk of 50. jonathan: thank you, sir. what's developing in the economic data and how the fed will respond this year. lisa: you've got a little bit of everything. they've been talking about the weakness allowing the fed to cut more even at a time when there is this inflationary pressure. a really tough moment. jonathan: getting closer to 4.30 on the u.s. 10 year. we are higher by 20 basis points on the week. coming up next hour, we will catch up with sam stovall, kathy but jan six, will kennedy and mark gurman will talk about the commodity market and what's developing with apple. there is so much in the commodity market. copper through nine a in gold at all-time highs in oil close to the highs of the year. live
lisa: are you saying the biggest rest -- risk cases for jay powell to say i care about equities? >> the biggest risk for next week is we all look at the 2024 dot and it says 50, not 75 basis points worth of rate cuts and it triggers a more dramatic bear market. jonathan: that would still imply 75 basis points. is it 50 or 75 next week? >> base case is 75 but there is a real risk of 50. jonathan: thank you, sir. what's developing in the economic data and how the fed will respond this...
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Mar 19, 2024
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jay powell says monetary policy is that well into restrictive territory. financial conditions are not telling you that. i cannot help but rewind to where we were last summer and fall. as we know at that point in time we saw a rates selloff very materially. the 10 year rose over 100 basis points. the 10 year real rate rising a similar amount. risk assets were relatively stable. the equity market did not go down. credit spreads did not widen. the fed told us they were very worried about higher term premium and they felt higher interest rates were doing the work for them. when we looked at risk assets we set risk assets do not care about this. risk assets do not care about the rate rise because we thought it was all about better growth expectations. the market was taking fed rates cuts and risk assets were generally ok with that and then the fed subsequently eased in the face of that and drove rates lower over the course of november and december through very dovish rhetoric and the treasury department also did their part. they issued less long dated bonds tha
jay powell says monetary policy is that well into restrictive territory. financial conditions are not telling you that. i cannot help but rewind to where we were last summer and fall. as we know at that point in time we saw a rates selloff very materially. the 10 year rose over 100 basis points. the 10 year real rate rising a similar amount. risk assets were relatively stable. the equity market did not go down. credit spreads did not widen. the fed told us they were very worried about higher...
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Mar 6, 2024
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tracking jay powell leader on in the super tuesday effect. primaries are taking place with trump winning north carolina and virginia. joe biden winning democratic contests in iowa, virginia and for mont. more coverage with joe mathieu and kailey leinz at 10 a.m. in hong kong, 1:00 p.m. sydney. that is it. our market coverage continues as we look ahead to the start of trade in china. ♪ (impressed) ay i like it! who wants to come see the future?! get your business online in minutes with godaddy airo when i was your age, we never had anything like this. get your business online in minutes what? wifi? wifi that works all over the house, even the basement. the basement. so i can finally throw that party... and invite shannon barnes. dream do come true. xfinity gives you reliable wifi with wall-to-wall coverage on all your devices, even when everyone is online. maybe we'll even get married one day. i wonder what i will be doing? probably still living here with mom and dad. fast reliable speeds right where you need them. that's wall-to-wall wifi o
tracking jay powell leader on in the super tuesday effect. primaries are taking place with trump winning north carolina and virginia. joe biden winning democratic contests in iowa, virginia and for mont. more coverage with joe mathieu and kailey leinz at 10 a.m. in hong kong, 1:00 p.m. sydney. that is it. our market coverage continues as we look ahead to the start of trade in china. ♪ (impressed) ay i like it! who wants to come see the future?! get your business online in minutes with godaddy...
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Mar 12, 2024
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there will be a question of whether jay powell was too optimistic. cpi might be coming and more than expected. we do have a new summary of projections. if we get a hot number, it could influence and change it a little bit. lisa: stuart has been talking about how this is an incredibly important cpi. . i do not have a sense of how flexible some of the committee members are at this point. mike: i think they think and is 50-50 for the economy. there are seasonal effects. they have to take those out of the equation and figure out if what they see is a lasting jump or not. maybe they enough with fewer cuts just because you run out of time. the markets will be looking at this and go, we have inflation. let's see what we get out of all of this? jonathan: your compatriot is looking for it to remain unchanged. is there anything about what happened at 8:30 that can bring that meeting alive? mike: it is a relatively low bar to get there. from a market's perspective, they have to at least adjust. if you get them back to back, you have to respect -- we will get th
there will be a question of whether jay powell was too optimistic. cpi might be coming and more than expected. we do have a new summary of projections. if we get a hot number, it could influence and change it a little bit. lisa: stuart has been talking about how this is an incredibly important cpi. . i do not have a sense of how flexible some of the committee members are at this point. mike: i think they think and is 50-50 for the economy. there are seasonal effects. they have to take those out...
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Mar 7, 2024
03/24
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stocks gain as fed chair jay powell says interest rates will likely fall this year, but tensions between the u.s. and china keeping hong kong and caddies -- equities in check. we discussed tech valuations as the market cap of the nasdaq composite the size of the u.s. economy. and in india, the rbi on a crackdown drive against schedule lenders. dive deeper into what is making the central bank nervous about the financial sector. we've got a great lineup of voices, including j.p. morgan head of economic research, and the ceo of singapore's budget carrier.
stocks gain as fed chair jay powell says interest rates will likely fall this year, but tensions between the u.s. and china keeping hong kong and caddies -- equities in check. we discussed tech valuations as the market cap of the nasdaq composite the size of the u.s. economy. and in india, the rbi on a crackdown drive against schedule lenders. dive deeper into what is making the central bank nervous about the financial sector. we've got a great lineup of voices, including j.p. morgan head of...
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Mar 20, 2024
03/24
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the press conference from jay powell had him sounding relatively dovish in this community hearings. we reiterate with the dot plots being adjusted. that is 6:00 p.m. u.k. time. meanwhile, reddit is set to press one of the year's most costly u.s. ipos. that is later today. they said they would raise as much as 700 care $740 million. they are on the u.s. stock exchange thursday as a symbol of the ddt. you can get around up of the stories you need to now on this today's -- on the stairs edition of daybreak. d.a. why bigo. today we are looking at a bloomberg script on some of the supplies while becoming through on the u.s. of administration. a crucial store in terms of the supply chain around semiconductors in china. in the ability to move up in terms of value and sophistication. that is one of the key stories on the list. also the details and the buildup in the preview of the fed. we will get her view on india's stock market ahead of next month's election as indian stocks have come under pressure in the last three days or so. the details on that coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> loo
the press conference from jay powell had him sounding relatively dovish in this community hearings. we reiterate with the dot plots being adjusted. that is 6:00 p.m. u.k. time. meanwhile, reddit is set to press one of the year's most costly u.s. ipos. that is later today. they said they would raise as much as 700 care $740 million. they are on the u.s. stock exchange thursday as a symbol of the ddt. you can get around up of the stories you need to now on this today's -- on the stairs edition of...
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Mar 22, 2024
03/24
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does that change what we heard from jay powell the previous day? click settle thicket changes it dramatically because i think the markets got used to these in stronger economic numbers coming through. particularly in the u.s.. we have had a massive change. if you think back to where we were in november of last year, where the market was pricing in some pretty aggressive rate cuts for the u.s., and now we are down to just three cuts this year, and an expectation we might get to neutral rates in the u.s. to 2.7 5%, which is pretty low over the next several years. the same in the u.k. the bank of england -- participants yesterday where they are seeing three rate cuts in 2024. there has definitely been a motivation of expectation about how much interest rates will be cut this year and next. francine: i have to say, it was on central banks this week's. well done everyone forgetting to friday. we had this nice column written a sickly suggesting that this week was huge for the boj. it hiked, at last, but it doesn't mean it's a sustained lift off. he doesn
does that change what we heard from jay powell the previous day? click settle thicket changes it dramatically because i think the markets got used to these in stronger economic numbers coming through. particularly in the u.s.. we have had a massive change. if you think back to where we were in november of last year, where the market was pricing in some pretty aggressive rate cuts for the u.s., and now we are down to just three cuts this year, and an expectation we might get to neutral rates in...
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Mar 7, 2024
03/24
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sonali: you have watched jay powell testify above the banking committee. tim scott said he was pleasantly surprised to hear powell's comments about the fed's proposed increase in big bank capital. elizabeth warren says you have gone week need on banking regulation, consistent with her attacks for years now. we will discuss powell's broader economics with economist lawrence sandal baker. laura: powell stuck to the scrip you wanted to reassure the markets the fed is more likely to cut rates, it's a matter of how not when. sonali: if you think about what the market is still expecting it is still multiple. do you have a sense that that's even possible? laura: the fed is holding this close to the vest. he did firmly take march rate cut off the table if they don't move by june, critically i was following his comments about gaining confidence. it is clear we don't need to see inflation reach that level but moving dramatically in that direction. he kept the door open to a midyear rate cut and i think we will see more in the second half of this year. sonali: it see
sonali: you have watched jay powell testify above the banking committee. tim scott said he was pleasantly surprised to hear powell's comments about the fed's proposed increase in big bank capital. elizabeth warren says you have gone week need on banking regulation, consistent with her attacks for years now. we will discuss powell's broader economics with economist lawrence sandal baker. laura: powell stuck to the scrip you wanted to reassure the markets the fed is more likely to cut rates, it's...
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Mar 5, 2024
03/24
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there is a political part of that and that is one of the reasons jay powell laid the groundwork for cuts in december and why he went on 60 minutes into the inflation numbers have not been good. if we keep rates where they are, real rates will expand. it was political in the proper way of preparing the markets for what i think will be easing. if they cut their will be complaints, and if they do not cut their will be complaints. annmarie: you think there's a cut off in the timeline, the last possible moment they could before the election so they can look like they can look like they're not being political even though they say they are not even thinking about being political? joe: june would be my guess. if you think you might be cutting in july and you can make the case inflation is coming down and you need to adjust rates, why not make the move in june and then sit tight in july which will be sandwiched between the rnc and dnc convention. if they do not go by june it will be harder for them to start cutting. jonathan: raphael bostic said something similar about how we could start cutting
there is a political part of that and that is one of the reasons jay powell laid the groundwork for cuts in december and why he went on 60 minutes into the inflation numbers have not been good. if we keep rates where they are, real rates will expand. it was political in the proper way of preparing the markets for what i think will be easing. if they cut their will be complaints, and if they do not cut their will be complaints. annmarie: you think there's a cut off in the timeline, the last...
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Mar 20, 2024
03/24
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we will see if jay powell has any kind of information he can expand on on what their conversation entailed. katie: only have about 45 seconds but that's the 2:00 p.m. numbers and then the 2:30 p.m. press conference. what kind of tone do you think jerome powell will take? mike: powell has alternated between being hawkish and dovish at his press conferences and tend to change as the day goes on. we will see if he can retain a neutral outlook this time and keep people from reacting too much to what they think he might've said. katie: a busy man, i'm sure you will be peppering today. let sick a quick look at some of the stocks hitting highs and lows and we kick off with chipotle hitting a high after they hit a stock split. it would be the first in the company's 30 year history and one of the biggest stock split in the history of the new york stock exchange. international paper hitting highs after reporting kkr's andrew silverdale as ceo. meanwhile take a look at the downside, a burberry hitting lows off a lot of the leather luxury names after a steeper than expected kleiman asian sales. the pr
we will see if jay powell has any kind of information he can expand on on what their conversation entailed. katie: only have about 45 seconds but that's the 2:00 p.m. numbers and then the 2:30 p.m. press conference. what kind of tone do you think jerome powell will take? mike: powell has alternated between being hawkish and dovish at his press conferences and tend to change as the day goes on. we will see if he can retain a neutral outlook this time and keep people from reacting too much to...
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Mar 25, 2024
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we know what this will look like because jay powell said so. going forward how is the balance of risk shift based on the recent pivot in communication? jonathan: i think this beach to watch is maybe governor cook of the federal reserve -- i think the speech to watch is maybe governor cook of the federal reserve. the bias of the moment seems to be fed weakness in the labor market. if we get any they respond. lisa: that was new and he had not said that before. this comes at a time inflation is higher than a lot of people would like to see. torsten slok putting out a piece on how wage inflation is still stickier at 5% in the united states. not necessarily pointing to that immaculate disinflation. jonathan: shares of united slightly lower on the heels of reporting from bloomberg the faa is weighing measures to curb growth that the airline following u.s. during of safety incidents. these could prevent united from adding new routes and preventing united flying paying customers on new aircraft. united declining to comment. we are lower almost 4%. annm
we know what this will look like because jay powell said so. going forward how is the balance of risk shift based on the recent pivot in communication? jonathan: i think this beach to watch is maybe governor cook of the federal reserve -- i think the speech to watch is maybe governor cook of the federal reserve. the bias of the moment seems to be fed weakness in the labor market. if we get any they respond. lisa: that was new and he had not said that before. this comes at a time inflation is...
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Mar 7, 2024
03/24
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stocks gain as fed chair jay powell says interest rates will likely fall this year, but tensions between the u.s. and china keeping hong kong and caddies -- equities in check. we discussed tech valuations as the market cap of the nasdaq composite the size of the u.s. economy. and in india, the rbi on a crackdown drive against schedule lenders. dive deeper into what is making the central bank nervous about the financial sector. we've got a great lineup of voices, including j.p. morgan head of economic research, and the ceo of singapore's budget carrier. in the markets it's about fed and jerome powell saying you know what, rate cuts can wait, but it is appropriate to cut rates this year. pal reiterating what he's said before, but consider whether it's appropriate this year. we also heard from neel kashkari, weighing in and saying maybe he sees two or maybe just one rate cut this year. the msci asia-pacific index up about 3/10 of 1%. we are keeping and i csi 300 index. it is about the mpc. it states and we heard from the pboc governor saying there is still room for rate cuts. at rrr that in
stocks gain as fed chair jay powell says interest rates will likely fall this year, but tensions between the u.s. and china keeping hong kong and caddies -- equities in check. we discussed tech valuations as the market cap of the nasdaq composite the size of the u.s. economy. and in india, the rbi on a crackdown drive against schedule lenders. dive deeper into what is making the central bank nervous about the financial sector. we've got a great lineup of voices, including j.p. morgan head of...