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Apr 8, 2024
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futures are steady despite some rising treasury yields. busy week in focus with cpi. yellen in china. a total eclipse of the sun. america's chip plays, taiwan semigetting a billion-dollar investment from uncle sam. >> treasury secretary yellen is not ruling out the possibility of new tariffs on china. >> janet yellen wraps up her visit. >> it's beneficial and desirable and it needs to be on the level playing field. and in the number of ways we feel it's not. >> jamie dimon's warnings for investors. higher rates, and the profound implications of a.i. >>> we begin with news vonding a major supplier to nvidia. the white house announcing $6.6 billion for the company's arizona plants. under the commitment, tsmc is committed to adding a third complex. jim, we're talking some 20,000 construction jobs, there's money in here for workforce training. >> this is a big one, it's the ones that we really need. i don't know, we'll have to talk about how much they really feed. we don't have enough engineers to build these. david, you know that this is the most tenuous, we'll talk with
futures are steady despite some rising treasury yields. busy week in focus with cpi. yellen in china. a total eclipse of the sun. america's chip plays, taiwan semigetting a billion-dollar investment from uncle sam. >> treasury secretary yellen is not ruling out the possibility of new tariffs on china. >> janet yellen wraps up her visit. >> it's beneficial and desirable and it needs to be on the level playing field. and in the number of ways we feel it's not. >> jamie...
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Apr 11, 2024
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i think that's the potential of the treasury market. the refunding shows that. they're scaling back t-bill issuance. the market is going to have to price that in. the fed put out a model on this, it's negative, currently. that is not a good signal, i think, for bonds. >> you talk about in your note also the end carry trade, and for people that don't follow this trade, to help people understand the implications of this, but that you feel this is also another to tepotential on i have treasury. and the move in the yen, which has been -- contrary to what people would have expected, with the end of negative interest rates in japan. >> yeah, you know, the yen going so quickly through 152, no liquidity there, so, they're hesinhes i testing higher. last night, there were comments about officials that is actually in charge to say, boj, go ahead and execute, there's one of those officials that actually said, we're pretty close to doing something, right, we're ready to act, and the markets just ignored it and go higher, so -- as the yen weakens, there will at some point be
i think that's the potential of the treasury market. the refunding shows that. they're scaling back t-bill issuance. the market is going to have to price that in. the fed put out a model on this, it's negative, currently. that is not a good signal, i think, for bonds. >> you talk about in your note also the end carry trade, and for people that don't follow this trade, to help people understand the implications of this, but that you feel this is also another to tepotential on i have...
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Apr 8, 2024
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doesn't need two trips in nine months by the treasury secretary. why do you take that view? >> i mean, what has happened in the last nine months that the u.s. and china need to have face to face talks with the same person over? nothing is the quick answer to that question. secretary yellen says we need to talk about overcapacity and overcapacity is a 20-year issue in china and there's nothing the u.s. will say to them that they don't already know. >> adding to that, the overcapacity is an issue for the secretary of commerce and the united states trade representative and all trade remedies are on the table and she's not in charge of trade remedies. that is not the real reason for her visit. >> so who should be there then or anyone at all? >> secretary -- oh, i mean, if we really are -- are concerned about a flood of chinese goods in certain sectors and we feel obliged to take actions that we would prefer to avoid a flood ofof goods, the secretary is in charge of that issue and they're not there because of the reason you mentioned in your report. secretary yellen is very popul
doesn't need two trips in nine months by the treasury secretary. why do you take that view? >> i mean, what has happened in the last nine months that the u.s. and china need to have face to face talks with the same person over? nothing is the quick answer to that question. secretary yellen says we need to talk about overcapacity and overcapacity is a 20-year issue in china and there's nothing the u.s. will say to them that they don't already know. >> adding to that, the overcapacity...
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Apr 9, 2024
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all after comments from treasury secretary janet yellen. she talked about the potential for the cars being on american roads. >> they are allowed to sell evs in the united states. we don't have rules against it. again, in that area as well, we are trying to foster a domestic industry. we are certainly open to imports, including those from china. there is no rule against china selling evs in the united states. >> again, chinese ev makers trading higher in hong kong. >>> let's get to the corporate stories with silvana henao. silvana, good morning. >> good morning. the biden administration is reportedly set to hand out its latest round of funds from the chips act. according to reuters, the white house will announce $6 billion going to samsung next week. reuters adds the money will go to construction of four facilities in the united states and that samsung will more than double the investment in the country to over $44 billion as part of the deal. >>> general motors cruise unit is resuming the testing of the robotaxis. the self-driving car divi
all after comments from treasury secretary janet yellen. she talked about the potential for the cars being on american roads. >> they are allowed to sell evs in the united states. we don't have rules against it. again, in that area as well, we are trying to foster a domestic industry. we are certainly open to imports, including those from china. there is no rule against china selling evs in the united states. >> again, chinese ev makers trading higher in hong kong. >>>...
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Apr 2, 2024
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treasury market is. so, as countries like china are developing reserves and need to park the reserves, there will still be demand for treasuries. gold will take a piece of that. but i don't think that is really a threat to the u.s. treasury market or the dollar in general longer term. but yes, near term particularly given with what's going on here in the u.s., rates will come down. the fiscal situation doesn't look particularly attractive, i can see central banks around the world looking at gold as an alternative at least in the short term to the u.s. dollar and treasuries. >> i was thinking about consumers. but a good point. maybe both of those together. david, thanks very much for being with us today. >>> coming up, a show of force against apple. comedian jon stewart saying the tech company asked him not to interview the ftc chair on his apple tv plus show. we'll discuss the problems with the company up next. power e*trade's award-winning trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options
treasury market is. so, as countries like china are developing reserves and need to park the reserves, there will still be demand for treasuries. gold will take a piece of that. but i don't think that is really a threat to the u.s. treasury market or the dollar in general longer term. but yes, near term particularly given with what's going on here in the u.s., rates will come down. the fiscal situation doesn't look particularly attractive, i can see central banks around the world looking at...
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Apr 11, 2024
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we are talking about treasury yields. what are the technicals telling us about the direction of the yields? >> frank, thank you for having me. so far, as we know, the yields have been moving higher this year. we are not that strong of a pace. if you look back, there have been a series of phases along the way. the equity markets have been able to withstand a rate hike so far, but we don't want to see that exaccelerated again. we have seen that happen with the shock and awe with the equity markets. because of what happened yesterday, there is a chance for that to occur again. i look at the gauge which is a 14-week rsi indicator on the chart. you see over the last number of years where things got ex accel accelerated. it hasn't happened yet. the market is okay. we have seen that for a year and a half. we that pace gets too fast, that's when things get risky. >> we watch for the higher lows. i want to talk about the dollar. at parity with the euro. moving higher. forecasts could move higher from here. what are the charts tell
we are talking about treasury yields. what are the technicals telling us about the direction of the yields? >> frank, thank you for having me. so far, as we know, the yields have been moving higher this year. we are not that strong of a pace. if you look back, there have been a series of phases along the way. the equity markets have been able to withstand a rate hike so far, but we don't want to see that exaccelerated again. we have seen that happen with the shock and awe with the equity...
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Apr 17, 2024
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take a look at treasury yields. we're going to talk about jay powell's comments which moved the markets just yesterday. they moved them -- well, we'll talk about it. ten-year note, 4.639, the 2-year at 4.951. miss "fast money." >> we did go 5% on the 2-year briefly. >> we did briefly. >> yeah. >> there was a move. >> but now it's down a little bit. this is what happened here. the 2-year treasury yield topping 5% after fed chair jay powell made his first comment after the hotter than expected data. >> we said it's moving sustainably toward 2% before proemtsly easing policy. the recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence and instead indicate that it's likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence. >> powell echoed recent statements by other fed officials indicating the current policy level will likely stay in place until inflation gets closer to its target. and so effectively, andrew, he's saying the data has been coming in increasingly hot. we've been trending toward it. now the questio
take a look at treasury yields. we're going to talk about jay powell's comments which moved the markets just yesterday. they moved them -- well, we'll talk about it. ten-year note, 4.639, the 2-year at 4.951. miss "fast money." >> we did go 5% on the 2-year briefly. >> we did briefly. >> yeah. >> there was a move. >> but now it's down a little bit. this is what happened here. the 2-year treasury yield topping 5% after fed chair jay powell made his first...
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Apr 8, 2024
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take a look at treasuries. we're going to have a conversation with mohamed el-erian about inflation and where things stand. the ten-year note sitting at 4.448, the two-year at 4.780. >>> treasury secretary janet yellen sitting down with our sara eisen in an exclusive interview. here's what she said about our nation's economy and inflation. >> the fed hass indicated that they want to make sure that inflation's really coming down and that they're obviously considering rate cuts that would be appropriate when they reach that judgment. and with that generally good news on inflation, you know, let's look at the data. i believe inflation will continue to come down. >> we'll get another read on inflation on wednesday when we get the cpi number. a lot of people including tom lee earlier this morning pointing out how important that number is going to be. we will have more of that interview with janet yellen at 8:20 a.m. eastern time. >>> the fed has lost sight of its overall strategies, instead turned into a play by pla
take a look at treasuries. we're going to have a conversation with mohamed el-erian about inflation and where things stand. the ten-year note sitting at 4.448, the two-year at 4.780. >>> treasury secretary janet yellen sitting down with our sara eisen in an exclusive interview. here's what she said about our nation's economy and inflation. >> the fed hass indicated that they want to make sure that inflation's really coming down and that they're obviously considering rate cuts...
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Apr 10, 2024
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treasury market is where we've seen some action.
treasury market is where we've seen some action.
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Apr 2, 2024
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the ten-year treasury marches to its highest level in months. i feel like we've had this discussion many times about higher rates, sticky inflaktinf now, the markets are saying, look at this. >> higher rates have been something that i think the market has digested at different times with different sense of velocity since july 2020. i think rates havebeen going higher for four years or 3 1/2 years, and i think they're going to continue to trickle higher. a lot of interesting, at least conversation being had on the deficit what's sustainable, what can be refinanced? the numbers don't really add up, and if you add in the dynamics of washington and dysfunction and credit downgrades and you add in refunding schedule, tra, things that we never really, you know, work the room on, it's not good for equities, and make no mistake, on friday, if we get a really weak payroll number, yields are going to go lower. they're going to go lower before they go higher. that's ultimately what's going to happen. the u.s. economy is kind of like a stock. if gdp shrinks
the ten-year treasury marches to its highest level in months. i feel like we've had this discussion many times about higher rates, sticky inflaktinf now, the markets are saying, look at this. >> higher rates have been something that i think the market has digested at different times with different sense of velocity since july 2020. i think rates havebeen going higher for four years or 3 1/2 years, and i think they're going to continue to trickle higher. a lot of interesting, at least...
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Apr 1, 2024
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are these four to five percent treasury yields that everybody will continue with in 2024? >> yeah, we think investors can enjoy using u.s. treasury etfs for their cash management and we think 2024 is different, where you will have risks. >> last year, short-term treasuries were all the rage, and this year you say to go in the intermediate term, three to seven years for treasuries, and why are we now in the enter meetut part of the curb? >> we think the fed will bring rates down towards the end of the year, and so when interest rates go down, prices go up. this is how you can manage duration precisely. if you step out of one and two-year duration, that's why we like the intermediate treasuries. >> the eft yielding north of 4%, broad corporate bond, but you like the lowest investment grade out there, you like that, and you also like, of course, what is going on in high yield. what do you like here? >> our top picks in credit is the triple pwfrplt in intermediate, and triple c is high yield. you mentioned a 4.5 yield, and yields, it's the lowest credit rating in the investmen
are these four to five percent treasury yields that everybody will continue with in 2024? >> yeah, we think investors can enjoy using u.s. treasury etfs for their cash management and we think 2024 is different, where you will have risks. >> last year, short-term treasuries were all the rage, and this year you say to go in the intermediate term, three to seven years for treasuries, and why are we now in the enter meetut part of the curb? >> we think the fed will bring rates...
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Apr 3, 2024
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but the long end, the sources of demand for treasuries are gone. it used to be who was buying treasuries, the fed, china, japan. none of them are buying anymore. so i think just that demand vo vacuum is part of the problem but the angle is part of the problem. the reason it could move higher is better long term growth expectations and that's starting to percolate with your average investor. the idea of a positive growth surprise which wasn't on the table last year is now becoming part of the conversation. >> finally, ft did a piece this week looking at corporate bond issuance arguing a lot of issuis issuers are front loading. >> our rule of thumb which has worked almost every election year so probably won't work this year is that volatility and the vicks picks up from july to november ahead of an election so that's when you want to be more cautious, quality oriented and come november, regardless of the outcome you see a year end rally on that uncertainty removal. so i think that could be the sort of the play book, obviously we'll wait and see, we k
but the long end, the sources of demand for treasuries are gone. it used to be who was buying treasuries, the fed, china, japan. none of them are buying anymore. so i think just that demand vo vacuum is part of the problem but the angle is part of the problem. the reason it could move higher is better long term growth expectations and that's starting to percolate with your average investor. the idea of a positive growth surprise which wasn't on the table last year is now becoming part of the...
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Apr 16, 2024
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when we cross the 5% level on the ten-year treasury, it's negative 6%. there is a real cost to what happens to stocks when we cross for the first time that 5% level. now -- now, that's three months and six months, so, of course if you're long-term oriented, you will use those opportunistcally. when i say average is negative 6, that means half the time it's worse. understand you can be bullish. you can think stocks are the right place to be, but you have to accept the fact back to almost 50 years of data something materially changes in the asset allocation picture when you're crossing 5% on ten-year yields for the first time. period. it's data. >> and, steph, let's be clear, you could, like you are, easily make the argument that the bullish trend is still intact as some will because, and many will, because they'll focus on the fact the fed is going to cut rates and the economy is strong. once you get past this noise, if you want to characterize it as that, you focus on the trend, good economy, fed cutting. on "closing bell," the pullback has likely more t
when we cross the 5% level on the ten-year treasury, it's negative 6%. there is a real cost to what happens to stocks when we cross for the first time that 5% level. now -- now, that's three months and six months, so, of course if you're long-term oriented, you will use those opportunistcally. when i say average is negative 6, that means half the time it's worse. understand you can be bullish. you can think stocks are the right place to be, but you have to accept the fact back to almost 50...
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Apr 17, 2024
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we'll see that on the treasury yield curve. we have this upwardly sloping curve, that our strategies are focused on being in that 12, 13, 14 on out because you are being paid to take duration. that's not the case with the treasury -- close our investors that can go in and take that duration risk to pull out more because you are certainly being. it's really an upward sloping curve, and the u.s. treasury market, whatever you see in the corporate a.b.s., it really does not matter because we have positive yields if you look in the municipal yield curve and look at every single spot on a tax equivalent basis, it's much higher than the rate of inflation. we have the higher yields in the marketplace we've had in more than 10 years. the lower level of income they have in the municipal market is legal. >> if you're in a high bracket state, it does not make sense. let's talk about quality issues, where you want to be, reaching out 10, 12 years, maybe longer. what about quality? >> we continue to like the high- yield sector in the municip
we'll see that on the treasury yield curve. we have this upwardly sloping curve, that our strategies are focused on being in that 12, 13, 14 on out because you are being paid to take duration. that's not the case with the treasury -- close our investors that can go in and take that duration risk to pull out more because you are certainly being. it's really an upward sloping curve, and the u.s. treasury market, whatever you see in the corporate a.b.s., it really does not matter because we have...
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Apr 8, 2024
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we did talk about this with the treasury secretary. here's the big difference. part of it is how dominant the chinese industries are. solar panels, 80% of the worlds solar panels are supplied in china and secretary yellen said it's important to have that diversity of supply chain where it's not just coming from one place. clearly, that is a risk so that's one of the problems and the other problem is the u.s. is a consumption driven economy so for us subsidizing industries where we want to see manufacturing and green technologies is a far cry from china which has been practicing industrial policy and supply side stimulus for years and flooding the market. at the other criticism would be that what they are doing is supplying too much more than the world can handle. and that's not to say the u.s. is doing it, they are trying to get them to be u.s.-made. so there is the distinction in terms of the subsidies in the u.s., but no question, other economies have called out the inflation reduction act as protectionist for prioritizing the u.s. and policy on the semi condu
we did talk about this with the treasury secretary. here's the big difference. part of it is how dominant the chinese industries are. solar panels, 80% of the worlds solar panels are supplied in china and secretary yellen said it's important to have that diversity of supply chain where it's not just coming from one place. clearly, that is a risk so that's one of the problems and the other problem is the u.s. is a consumption driven economy so for us subsidizing industries where we want to see...
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Apr 16, 2024
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take a look at treasury yields right now this morning. the 10-year sitting at 4.645, the two-year 4.942. futures ahead of the market open -- still have close to 40 minutes -- dow up nearly 250 points higher. we're coming right back. and retirement savings. voya helps you choose the right amounts without over or under investing. so you can feel confident in your financial choices voya, well planned, well invested, well protected. (vo) what does it mean to be rich? maybe rich is less about reaching a magic number... and more about discovering magic. >>> joining us is ken leon director of equity research at cfra. we're seeing trades higher. let's start with morgan stanley which is the bigger gain so far premarket, almost 4%. do we not care about the ongoing investigations into how they gather their assets for their customers, et cetera? >> it's great to be with you. certainly we're watching that. we don't want to see this be something systemic. hopefully it's a one-off and it doesn't damage the great brand that morgan stanley has in wealth m
take a look at treasury yields right now this morning. the 10-year sitting at 4.645, the two-year 4.942. futures ahead of the market open -- still have close to 40 minutes -- dow up nearly 250 points higher. we're coming right back. and retirement savings. voya helps you choose the right amounts without over or under investing. so you can feel confident in your financial choices voya, well planned, well invested, well protected. (vo) what does it mean to be rich? maybe rich is less about...
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Apr 19, 2024
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treasury market given japan is the largest holder of u.s. treasuries if they do intervene? >> the answer is, you know, there is intervention. i think that's going to spur more outflows from japan with the private sector actually welcoming the significance, sorry, not the significance, welcoming the liquidity provided by the bank of japan at that point. for all intents and purposes and to repeat the point here, if you're a japanese pensioner, if you're a japanese insurance company, getting 4%, 4.5% in u.s. treasuries is a very, very good deal to have, given that domestic interest rates are still below 1% >> right thanks >>> it is just past 7:00 a.m. right here on the east coast you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc i'm andrew ross sorkin with melissa lee on this friday morning. joe and becky are off today. we got a whole lot of headlines to bring you right now breaking news overnight, israel carrying out what appears now to be a narrow strike against iran. and now assessing its effectiveness. the damage caused. the action appearing to be limited in an effort to avoid escalati
treasury market given japan is the largest holder of u.s. treasuries if they do intervene? >> the answer is, you know, there is intervention. i think that's going to spur more outflows from japan with the private sector actually welcoming the significance, sorry, not the significance, welcoming the liquidity provided by the bank of japan at that point. for all intents and purposes and to repeat the point here, if you're a japanese pensioner, if you're a japanese insurance company, getting...
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Apr 5, 2024
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our own sara eisen live from beijing with treasury secretary joe janet yellen. coverage begins at 5:00 a.m. eastern. markets in the green on the heels of that jobs report. a quick check on where fds aunre flowing next. back in a moment. ♪ ("tosca, act ii: vissi d'arte" by maria callas) ♪ ♪ (orchestra del teatro alla scala, milano) ♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ (cat meowing) ♪ ("huge beats" by louis perez) ♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ hi, i'm ben and i've lost 60 pounds on golo. (guitar music) ♪♪ i've struggled with weight my whole life. i'm sure you're like me and you've tried diet after diet. if you want to stop the insanity, try golo. you founded your kayak company because you love the ocean- not spreadsheets. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire >> i was supporting the interest of the company as opposed to defending myself. >>> checking in on the markets here. you can see the nasdaq the outperformer up about .9% right now. the s&p up about 0.
our own sara eisen live from beijing with treasury secretary joe janet yellen. coverage begins at 5:00 a.m. eastern. markets in the green on the heels of that jobs report. a quick check on where fds aunre flowing next. back in a moment. ♪ ("tosca, act ii: vissi d'arte" by maria callas) ♪ ♪ (orchestra del teatro alla scala, milano) ♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ (cat meowing) ♪ ("huge beats" by louis perez) ♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ hi, i'm ben and i've lost 60 pounds on golo....
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Apr 30, 2024
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ahead of the fed meeting, we are looking at treasuries. the yields are pulling back very slightly. important to note the two-year yield is close to the five-year yield. we are looking at the oil market now with the oil up just a bit. brent crude up .25%. wti is trading at $82.90 a barrel. >>> that's the set up. let's get a check of the top corporate stories with silvana henao at cnbc hq. >> good morning, frank. goldman sachs is in talks to transfer the credit card program with general motors. according to the wall street journal, barclays is the firm to take over issuing cards which has $2 billion of outstanding balances. any deal could come by the summer and mark the latest by goldman sachs in the pullback from consumer lending. >>> apple is targeting google workers in the bid to build the team for the artificial intelligence ambitions. a reviewing hundreds of linkedin profiles, apple has reviewed 30 from the tech file. apple created a secret lab in zurich for new a.i. models. >>> and nbc is looking to pay up in the push to secure nba rights from tnt. it is set to make a bid of $2
ahead of the fed meeting, we are looking at treasuries. the yields are pulling back very slightly. important to note the two-year yield is close to the five-year yield. we are looking at the oil market now with the oil up just a bit. brent crude up .25%. wti is trading at $82.90 a barrel. >>> that's the set up. let's get a check of the top corporate stories with silvana henao at cnbc hq. >> good morning, frank. goldman sachs is in talks to transfer the credit card program with...
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Apr 8, 2024
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treasury secretary ja janet yellen urges a balancing act. >> can shift world prices. when the global market is flooded by artificially cheap chinese products, the viability of american and other foreign firms is put into question. >> we will hear from yellen in beijing at 11:00 a.m. cet. >>> and looking to compete with more banks and telling people it is a case study for the continent. >> we cannot rely on a crisis for the facilitation of merger of banks. there has to be a desire to facilitate. >>> european equities notching a subdued start to the week with the fed hopes of easing in june. >>> and tui is upgrading after ditching the london listing. we will speak to the ceo at 10:45 cet. >>> good morning. hope you had a fantastic weekend. let's look at the heat map which has more green than are moving upside in the early trade for the european stoxx 600. keep in mind we had a negative day on friday for the index. it had its worst performance since mid-february by .8%. over the course of the week, the stoxx 600 fell over 1%. a lot of concerns on the rate front stateside
treasury secretary ja janet yellen urges a balancing act. >> can shift world prices. when the global market is flooded by artificially cheap chinese products, the viability of american and other foreign firms is put into question. >> we will hear from yellen in beijing at 11:00 a.m. cet. >>> and looking to compete with more banks and telling people it is a case study for the continent. >> we cannot rely on a crisis for the facilitation of merger of banks. there has to...
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Apr 4, 2024
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treasury yields, something to keep an eye on especially along with gold recently, but treasurys now, 436. almost 437 on the ten year. >>> among today's top business stories, disney winning its proxy fight with activist investor nelson peltz. at yesterday's annual shareholder meeting investors re-elected disney's full plate of board candidates including two peltz wanted to boot off the board saying fiercely promoting himself and former disney cfo jay rasul oh. criticizing disney operations including espn and the company's recent films. we're going to talk all about this fight later this hour with barry diller. >>> google is looking into charging for souped-up a.i. powered searching within its premium subscription services according to a report in the "financial times." it says engineers are working on the technology but executives haven't made a decision whether to deloy it. in a statement google would continue to build new premium creating robots for the home with engineers considering one that would trail users around the house. according to a bloomberg report which says the idea co
treasury yields, something to keep an eye on especially along with gold recently, but treasurys now, 436. almost 437 on the ten year. >>> among today's top business stories, disney winning its proxy fight with activist investor nelson peltz. at yesterday's annual shareholder meeting investors re-elected disney's full plate of board candidates including two peltz wanted to boot off the board saying fiercely promoting himself and former disney cfo jay rasul oh. criticizing disney...
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Apr 10, 2024
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and they've handed the monetary ball to the treasury. so, to the extent they taper, that reduces the amount of issuance the treasury has to use. if the treasury then decides to keep coupons still at this 500 billion net per quarter and just reduce bills, the taper won't be felt by the economy, and it won't be felt by the market. if they choose to reduce coupons, and reduce the amount of supply of duration that the investment community has to buy, then that would have an impact on taper, so, i think by may 1st, when they do the next quarterly refunding announcement, we'll have an answer on howthey're going -- we may have an answer on how they plan on changing composition. >> andy, always great to see you. thank you. andy constan. guy? >> it's a really interesting conversation, in terms of what do higher yields mean for the broader market. that's what we're tasked to do. maybe it's a 4.5%, where things start to get interesting again and the market's waking up to it today. i think tim's question is, why are rates going higher? it hits the n
and they've handed the monetary ball to the treasury. so, to the extent they taper, that reduces the amount of issuance the treasury has to use. if the treasury then decides to keep coupons still at this 500 billion net per quarter and just reduce bills, the taper won't be felt by the economy, and it won't be felt by the market. if they choose to reduce coupons, and reduce the amount of supply of duration that the investment community has to buy, then that would have an impact on taper, so, i...
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Apr 19, 2024
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here big bid in treasurys overnight on those israel-iran headlines that mostly unwound. around 4.6% on the ten-year yield. really flattish on a week to date basis, a little bit off those multi-month highs. semiconductors, really the drag on the nasdaq today. super micro getting taken apart. nvidia, down 9% and cracking well below its 50-day average. netflix, after reporting a strong quarter, but deciding to maybe not give as much information out about subs, stock down 9%. maybe it's giving investors hesitation about response to big tech earnings next week. that does take us to our talk of the tape has the market's pullback been enough to price in a more patient fed, higher bond yields, and to reset expectations into the thick of earnings season let's bring in laurie, victoria, and kevin. great to see you guys. laurie, market -- look, we could go through march and many of us did, and you did, and said, it's not going to be this easy forever. we had no 2% pullbacks so, we were kind of due for a setback. but what, specifically, do you think the market's contending with obvi
here big bid in treasurys overnight on those israel-iran headlines that mostly unwound. around 4.6% on the ten-year yield. really flattish on a week to date basis, a little bit off those multi-month highs. semiconductors, really the drag on the nasdaq today. super micro getting taken apart. nvidia, down 9% and cracking well below its 50-day average. netflix, after reporting a strong quarter, but deciding to maybe not give as much information out about subs, stock down 9%. maybe it's giving...
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Apr 12, 2024
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they're figuring, i can look at the treasuries for six months, as yields stay locnger. the key to that bank is not just the income. it's the activity and what they do with their balance sheets and how they're helping their customers. the stronger economy, the i.p.o. market has picked up. that's where they're going to make their assets. this is, i think, more short-term, and if and when rates do come down, they will make a lot more because they will not be moving their money out. >> let's get another perspective. we have the head of research and securities. what do you think, abraham? you have been listening to our discussion. the fundamentals still strong, or did you see any even yellow flags in them? >> thanks. first of all, thanks for having me, and i have been listening to the conversation and i would say the fundamentals are really strong. i think we can talk about why some of these names are in the red today, but i think what we heard from jp, bell, citi group, it's on relatively solid footing, how it looks for all three banks, and it was fairly constructive evenre
they're figuring, i can look at the treasuries for six months, as yields stay locnger. the key to that bank is not just the income. it's the activity and what they do with their balance sheets and how they're helping their customers. the stronger economy, the i.p.o. market has picked up. that's where they're going to make their assets. this is, i think, more short-term, and if and when rates do come down, they will make a lot more because they will not be moving their money out. >> let's...
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Apr 16, 2024
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treasury yields are hovering at the highest levels in six months. the two-year/ten-year spread is skee steep evening. we are looking at the energy sector with oil holding above $90 a barrel. wti is the benchmark in the u.s. down at $85.25. brent crude is lower. we want to look at the commodities and specifically gold which is at an all-time high. look at that chart. you see it is up 15% year to date. >>> that's the set up. let's see how europe is getting under way with the trading with silvia amaro. we were just on "street signs" a bit ago. you have been tracking the declines on the middle east tensions all morning long. >> we do have the european stoxx 600 basically on track to see the biggest daily drop since october. the negative sentiment we are seeing in europe this morning is pretty much a continuation of what we saw yesterday stateside. earlier this morning, from asia as well. looking at the boards in europe and you can see they are all in the red at this stage. i would highlight the ftse 100 is down by 1.5% and this is despite data this morn
treasury yields are hovering at the highest levels in six months. the two-year/ten-year spread is skee steep evening. we are looking at the energy sector with oil holding above $90 a barrel. wti is the benchmark in the u.s. down at $85.25. brent crude is lower. we want to look at the commodities and specifically gold which is at an all-time high. look at that chart. you see it is up 15% year to date. >>> that's the set up. let's see how europe is getting under way with the trading with...
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Apr 3, 2024
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the selloff and treasury, you have the 10 year around 435. that's going to do it for closing bell. >> a late afternoon slump sending things down lower for the second straight day. that's the scorecard on wall street, but the afternoon is just getting started, welcome to closing bell overtime.>> energy is the best performing sector. now, investors turn their attention to another lead, we will have instant
the selloff and treasury, you have the 10 year around 435. that's going to do it for closing bell. >> a late afternoon slump sending things down lower for the second straight day. that's the scorecard on wall street, but the afternoon is just getting started, welcome to closing bell overtime.>> energy is the best performing sector. now, investors turn their attention to another lead, we will have instant
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Apr 1, 2024
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treasury yields. let's annotate it. on the second iteration here, and you'll see, this line, that, if you were to take every single trading day and the mid-point of the range, of course, on any given day, there's a high, a low, and a close, whether it's a stock, a currency, or, of course, ten-year treasury yields, but the average of all days over the past 12 months, from the end of q-120 2023 toth end of q-1 2024, is 4.4%. where you acted or didn't acted. so, looking at it this way, the great fear, and that has been the great fear, that rates are going higher and higher, they haven't. and whenever -- and history bears this out, when you hear a mantra or a turn of phrase that gets coined and embraced and considered sort of gospel, run the other way. one of the biggest phrases you can google search it was higher for longer. that was at 5.02%. we are not at 5.02%. it has not been higher for longer. >> all right, carter, thank you. carter braxton worth, 4.11. even if we stayed at 4.11, though, it would still be higher relat
treasury yields. let's annotate it. on the second iteration here, and you'll see, this line, that, if you were to take every single trading day and the mid-point of the range, of course, on any given day, there's a high, a low, and a close, whether it's a stock, a currency, or, of course, ten-year treasury yields, but the average of all days over the past 12 months, from the end of q-120 2023 toth end of q-1 2024, is 4.4%. where you acted or didn't acted. so, looking at it this way, the great...
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Apr 10, 2024
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we're watching the treasuries, as well. looks like the treasury yield is a little weaker. the ten-year is yielding 4.34. the two-year, 4.72. watching closely. this number is a big one. the inflation number for the month of march. expectations right now, for the headline number, month-over-month, up 0.3%. that's the same for core. year-over-year, you're looking for 3.4%, for headline numbers. core strips out the food and emergency prices, is seeing being up 3.7%. a lot riding on this. it will help determine if the fed can cut rates. and if so, how quickly. you're seeing pops before the numbers comes out. rick santoli is standing by at the cme. take it away. >> looking at yields popping up. very close to the number. they should be populating on the screen, as becky pointed out. march consumer price index. the headline number, up 0.4%. that equals our last look. to look for a higher number, august of last year. we're as low as 0.1 in october of last year. this doesn't seem like it's cooling quickly. back-to-back 0.4s. we're expecting 0.3. you find a higher number, go to april
we're watching the treasuries, as well. looks like the treasury yield is a little weaker. the ten-year is yielding 4.34. the two-year, 4.72. watching closely. this number is a big one. the inflation number for the month of march. expectations right now, for the headline number, month-over-month, up 0.3%. that's the same for core. year-over-year, you're looking for 3.4%, for headline numbers. core strips out the food and emergency prices, is seeing being up 3.7%. a lot riding on this. it will...
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Apr 12, 2024
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there are other alternatives and you can be in cash equivalent and treasuries. >> you can go into some nice quality corporate bonds at 6%. lock it up fortwo years. >> three to five years. >> nice thing to have. >> nice to have you here. >> thank you. >> we'll see you next week. that does it for "power lunch." >> "closing bell" starts right now. >> and welcome to "closing bell." i'm scott wapner live from post nine on this friday. this make or break hour begins with the rally interrupted as geopolitical concerns, inflation fears and a rate cut reset, all weighing on the markets today. we'll ask our experts over this final stretch what's at stake that includes fundstrat's tom lee. is the story for the bulls changing? it's a kwee key question and we'll get his answer. in the meantime, take a look at the scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation, a decidedly risk off day for the market. bonds are up, dollar, oil, gold rising, stocks down, the vix up as well. bank stocks are selling off led by jpmorgan, following earnings, tech also weak, nearly every mega cap name is lower today. apple
there are other alternatives and you can be in cash equivalent and treasuries. >> you can go into some nice quality corporate bonds at 6%. lock it up fortwo years. >> three to five years. >> nice thing to have. >> nice to have you here. >> thank you. >> we'll see you next week. that does it for "power lunch." >> "closing bell" starts right now. >> and welcome to "closing bell." i'm scott wapner live from post nine on...
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Apr 29, 2024
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treasury supplies are running off control. that was the story in late summer i feel like everyone is making sure they're not caught offsides, even though it doesn't seem like mvp of a threat. it's interesting to me on the bernstein upgrade. it seems very lolgts cal the valuation is lower than it was. people have not really expecting much fundamentally out of it it feels like it's fine, and tesla bouncing today, the other ones are backing off today so it makes some kind of sense i don't know if it really makes too much of a thing about an earnings later in part of the week it's not that much of a business bellwether, you know it's its own thing >>> tesla best day in more than three years. >> he does you'll hear from him shortly explaining what it -- and it's all about the potential for future revenue growth, especially as it does offer full self-driving technology in china. this deal expands the driver technology ability within china. , remember, it's not fully autonomous, just full self-driving sources also tell us that baidu
treasury supplies are running off control. that was the story in late summer i feel like everyone is making sure they're not caught offsides, even though it doesn't seem like mvp of a threat. it's interesting to me on the bernstein upgrade. it seems very lolgts cal the valuation is lower than it was. people have not really expecting much fundamentally out of it it feels like it's fine, and tesla bouncing today, the other ones are backing off today so it makes some kind of sense i don't know if...
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Apr 12, 2024
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regulators, including the s.e.c., office of the c comptroller of the currency and treasury. according to reports, regulators are looking into whether the bank had adequately investigated the identities of clients and sources the wealth. >>> globe life is responding to a new short sell the report from fuzzy panda research with fraud at the life insurance giant. globe life said the research mischaracterizes facts and uses unsubstantiated claims. shares are higher in the pre-market after falling sharply in the trade yesterday. >>> finally, cathie wood's ark investment holds a stake in a.i. darling openai. in an email to clients, ark said the venture fund invests in openai. the $54 million ark fund was launched in september of 2022 and invests in public and private companies like spacex and epic games and recently the reddit ipo. >> bertha, thank you. >>> more to come here on "worldwide exchange," including the one word that voinvestors nd to know today and the one stock that can't seem to hold a charge. >>> and we layout what to watch ahead and the banks for later today. >>> an
regulators, including the s.e.c., office of the c comptroller of the currency and treasury. according to reports, regulators are looking into whether the bank had adequately investigated the identities of clients and sources the wealth. >>> globe life is responding to a new short sell the report from fuzzy panda research with fraud at the life insurance giant. globe life said the research mischaracterizes facts and uses unsubstantiated claims. shares are higher in the pre-market after...
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Apr 1, 2024
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and 4.5% ten-year treasuries is not even unusual. in fact, 4% treasury at 10% rate is more unusual. >> all right, peter. like the glasses. i see you got the -- >> glad i excited you today. >> matching watchband. no. andrew looks at your tie. we check everything out. >> got the purple socks. whole thing. ensemble and it works. it does. >> how much attention you pay to the men. >> we do. >> for a minute ask people, do you worry about something -- wayan worried about it? you know his history. you're not worried about anything. i mean, maybe your clients you're worried, but peter, himself, has nothing to worry about. >> you didn't ask me that question. >> from his professional perspective. >> right. professional, right. >> me, worry? >> when we come back wizards and capitals staying in washington, d.c. after all. we will talk to mayor muriel bowser how she kept the teams from moving to virginia. >>> and later, kevin hassett joins us on the latest inflation data and the fettle next move. we'll be right back. i've got one for you. this lad
and 4.5% ten-year treasuries is not even unusual. in fact, 4% treasury at 10% rate is more unusual. >> all right, peter. like the glasses. i see you got the -- >> glad i excited you today. >> matching watchband. no. andrew looks at your tie. we check everything out. >> got the purple socks. whole thing. ensemble and it works. it does. >> how much attention you pay to the men. >> we do. >> for a minute ask people, do you worry about something -- wayan...
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Apr 26, 2024
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in line treasuries got bought for a change the trend higher yields they come down, still el vaetsed 2-year yield here are movers we're watching alphabet and microsoft helping drive the market higher their shares getting a nice pop after both of them report strong earnings we're going to speak with one analyst who raised his price target on alphabet shares of intel on pace for their worst day in almost four years. the street weighing in with a slew of price target cuts on the stock following a weaker outlook. we'll break them down for you later this hour. look at snap, soaring more than 20% on the back of its earnings beat daily active users during the first quarter rising 10% and the small and medium sized advertisers on snap chat jumping 85%. evan spiegel joins us in the next hour on "money movers" to talk about the company's growth outlook. >> busy morning for data umich with rick santelli hey, rick. >> hey,carl. you know, many different metrics, these are april final reads, so two weeks ago the mid month read these reads have moved quite a bit, which is a bit unusual. so we go fr
in line treasuries got bought for a change the trend higher yields they come down, still el vaetsed 2-year yield here are movers we're watching alphabet and microsoft helping drive the market higher their shares getting a nice pop after both of them report strong earnings we're going to speak with one analyst who raised his price target on alphabet shares of intel on pace for their worst day in almost four years. the street weighing in with a slew of price target cuts on the stock following a...
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Apr 25, 2024
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ten-year treasuries hitting their highest level since november as expectations for rate cuts are pushed further down the road are we heading to a real credit crunch, and what could it mean for the markets? >>> and later, gold glistens the headlines driving the moves and the impact on all the miners i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq stocks ended the day in the red, but making a big comeback from their worst levels of the day. the dow down 700 points at the lows, ending the day off less than 400 the nasdaq down my that are 2.3% at its lows, closing down just over half a percent. the losses coming after a softer than expected gdp report, but already, it's looking like we are in for a big reversal tomorrow shares of microsoft and alphabet soaring. go google's parent adding more than $300 billion in market cap after announcing its first ever dividend and a $70 billion stock buy-back let's get more on the numbers with deirdre bosa. >> hey, mel. the call is still under way. the q&a should be beginning soon no surprise, the ceo spent a lot of time talking about his
ten-year treasuries hitting their highest level since november as expectations for rate cuts are pushed further down the road are we heading to a real credit crunch, and what could it mean for the markets? >>> and later, gold glistens the headlines driving the moves and the impact on all the miners i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq stocks ended the day in the red, but making a big comeback from their worst levels of the day. the dow down 700 points at the...
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Apr 5, 2024
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you saw treasury yields pick up and now have futures back. dow futures actually higher than before the number was reported's gain of about 116 points. maybe people are realizing that good numbers are good numbers. it means the economy is running strong right now. you do have the ten-year yield at 337. about four basis points where it was before the numbers. two year now yielding 4.7's%. that's an increase can of about four basis points. we'll continue to watch this. again, stronger than anticipated economic numbers. stronger than expected jobs report. what that means for the fed is anybody's guess. >> and that is the question of the hour, and we've got the perfect person to answer that question about what could impact the fed's rate path ahead. joining us former st. louis fed president bullard, dean of the junior school of business. appreciate you being with us this morning. just your immediate reaction to these numbers, jim? >> yeah. a strong report, and unemployment ticking down. it looks like the economy is running pretty hot. so i think t
you saw treasury yields pick up and now have futures back. dow futures actually higher than before the number was reported's gain of about 116 points. maybe people are realizing that good numbers are good numbers. it means the economy is running strong right now. you do have the ten-year yield at 337. about four basis points where it was before the numbers. two year now yielding 4.7's%. that's an increase can of about four basis points. we'll continue to watch this. again, stronger than...
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Apr 11, 2024
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take a look at treasuries. that's been the center of the action lately. big selloff leading yields higher. that was the story off yesterday's cpi today, as ppi we'll talk about offering relief. the 10-year yield moves south but remains above 4.56% after a weak auction yesterday. 30 minutes into the trading session here are three movers we're watching. carmax shares taking a hit after missing earnings estimates on the top and bottom line. the ceo saying a weak consumer and higher interest rates are hurting their sales for the quarter. robinhood shares under pressure getting downgraded to sell at citigroup saying the stock's strong performance is disconnected from the fundamental outlook. shares are up almost 40% so far this year. look at shares of doordash a bump on an upgrade. upgrades the stock to buy, raises the price target to $164 from $118 saying never bet against the american consumer's willingness to spend. david, we've got a lot to talk about today. >> okay. well, you go ahead. you talk. i had an active hour with jim, so i'm going to stand by and
take a look at treasuries. that's been the center of the action lately. big selloff leading yields higher. that was the story off yesterday's cpi today, as ppi we'll talk about offering relief. the 10-year yield moves south but remains above 4.56% after a weak auction yesterday. 30 minutes into the trading session here are three movers we're watching. carmax shares taking a hit after missing earnings estimates on the top and bottom line. the ceo saying a weak consumer and higher interest rates...
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Apr 12, 2024
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to the treasury market, let's look at what is happening with yields. this is a wild week for yields. the ten-year yield is lower. still well above 4.5%. 4.53% right now. the two-year note at 4.92%. let's also look at crude oil prices. the prices are moving higher on rising tensions in the middle east. in fact, this morning, you see things up by $1 for wti. $86.05 a barrel. >>> we are waiting for the banks to report. over the next hour, jpmorgan chase and wells fargo and the world's largest money manager blackrock and citi will turn in the first quarter report card. we will get reaction as soon as numbers are released. we need to get to leslie picker because black rock is out. leslie. >> bottom line in at 981. a 24% year over year. top line is 4.728 billion. up 11% year over year. aum at 10.5 trillion. that was up 15% and beating estimates on aum as well thanks to total net inflows of 236 billion over the last few months. 76 billion of long-term net inflows. the top line was driven by the positive impact of average aum. that is based on the higher perfo
to the treasury market, let's look at what is happening with yields. this is a wild week for yields. the ten-year yield is lower. still well above 4.5%. 4.53% right now. the two-year note at 4.92%. let's also look at crude oil prices. the prices are moving higher on rising tensions in the middle east. in fact, this morning, you see things up by $1 for wti. $86.05 a barrel. >>> we are waiting for the banks to report. over the next hour, jpmorgan chase and wells fargo and the world's...
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Apr 9, 2024
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treasuries here with the u.s. ten-year note with a push higher in overnight trade for government bond yields. people are really continuing to question how much the fmoc will cut rates this year. we are back below the 4.4% for the ten-year yield. if we see a push above 4.4 from the technical and psychological point of view, that could provide some headwind for the stock market. we have to wait and see. the multimonth highs in the u.s. yields is something we need to keep a watch on. cpi will tell us all. as for the u.s. futures, no real commitment here head of the cpi number and ecb. it looks how it closed overnight. it is mixed there for the u.s. markets. frank. >> can i say okley dokley? >>> jpmorgan chase ceo jamie dimon telling investors in the latest shareholder letter that he believes artificial intelligence could be as impactful on humanity as the printing press and electricity and the computers. the banking giant put a.i. in a list of topics most likely to affect his business. a.i. above inflation and climat
treasuries here with the u.s. ten-year note with a push higher in overnight trade for government bond yields. people are really continuing to question how much the fmoc will cut rates this year. we are back below the 4.4% for the ten-year yield. if we see a push above 4.4 from the technical and psychological point of view, that could provide some headwind for the stock market. we have to wait and see. the multimonth highs in the u.s. yields is something we need to keep a watch on. cpi will tell...
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Apr 17, 2024
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the longterm ten year treasury average is about 5 it is that initial crossing that forces allocaturs to think twice about the inkremental dollar into equity market risk. i think that's where we are. we are not far away from peopl seriously having to make the decision i'm definitely mindful of it >> let's bring in contributo stephanie lake of hightowe advisors are you getting a little nervous on the what is a bullish vie that you have on where we may go from here, that we need to reset expectations given the push of of rate cuts >> look, i think we have hit a air pocket because we are trying to adjust to what the fed will do we have talked about two t three and now i'm thinking o zero to one in terms of cuts that's what the market is trying to figure out. powell's commentary didn't help. we have to think about highe rates in general for longer. but i step back and so to answer your question, no, i'm not mor nervous because the growth i the macro economies around the world is much stronger tha people have expected you are at 2.9% in the u.s., 2.3 from the imf global growth china is see
the longterm ten year treasury average is about 5 it is that initial crossing that forces allocaturs to think twice about the inkremental dollar into equity market risk. i think that's where we are. we are not far away from peopl seriously having to make the decision i'm definitely mindful of it >> let's bring in contributo stephanie lake of hightowe advisors are you getting a little nervous on the what is a bullish vie that you have on where we may go from here, that we need to reset...
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Apr 16, 2024
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treasuries, we see there is a lot more with u.s. treasury yields. when it comes to u.s. futures, this is how we are shaping up ahead of the open in the united states. it seems it could be a bit of a mixed open for wall street today after we saw the dow and s&p and nasdaq and even the russell 2000 posting negative performances on monday with tech being the sector leading the losses, frank. >>> turning from markets to geopo geopolitics, more are speaking out about the pressure. speaking in washington at the start of the meeting with u.s. president biden, he said he encouraged all efforts to keep it from escalating further. israel's response from the attack from iran is imminent, but the u.s. suggesting it is limited in scope. u.s. officials have not been briefed on the israel decision making. >> we are closely assessing the situation. we maintain our highest level of readiness. iran will face the consequences for its actions. we will choose our response accordingly. the idf remains ready to counter any threat from iran and its proxies as we continue our mission to defend t
treasuries, we see there is a lot more with u.s. treasury yields. when it comes to u.s. futures, this is how we are shaping up ahead of the open in the united states. it seems it could be a bit of a mixed open for wall street today after we saw the dow and s&p and nasdaq and even the russell 2000 posting negative performances on monday with tech being the sector leading the losses, frank. >>> turning from markets to geopo geopolitics, more are speaking out about the pressure....
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Apr 29, 2024
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treasuries haven't really seen much of an impact on that so far. it shows you what fed does matters everywhere. >> around the world. >> around the world. all sorts of global markets. >> as sara points out, s&p, nasdaq, coming off the best week of the year since last november ahead of the busiest week of earnings season. nearly a third of s&p reports, 20% of the dow, got the fed and jobs number on friday. our senior markets commentator mike santoli is back to help us get ready. there's a lot. what is important to focus on. >> there is. i would characterize this as an ongoing test based on all the things that sara says the market is contending with last week passed the first part of the test, market had three straight down weeks, oversold, should bounce, and we did bounce as we get through the mega cap earnings season there's a familiar earnings pattern where earnings season starts off everyone is beating by a lot and we expected it market is not rewarding it mega cap earnings, at least if not else, substantiates where aggregate s&p estimates are and
treasuries haven't really seen much of an impact on that so far. it shows you what fed does matters everywhere. >> around the world. >> around the world. all sorts of global markets. >> as sara points out, s&p, nasdaq, coming off the best week of the year since last november ahead of the busiest week of earnings season. nearly a third of s&p reports, 20% of the dow, got the fed and jobs number on friday. our senior markets commentator mike santoli is back to help us...
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Apr 17, 2024
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remember, here comes another treasury refunding, and the last two treasury refundings have been positive catalysts for the market both in february and in november. the market rallied off of both of those. so next week's going to be critical. back to what you said before, reits, utilities, do not go anywhere near there. you said the s&p is off 4%. do you know the russell is off 20% its all-time high? i wouldn't touch the russell 2000. >> the russell is down 7.5% this month. this month. 16 days -- >> that's a bear market. >> in the month. would you own a home builder right now? the home builder etf is down 9% this month. d.r. horton reports this thursday. you own that. that stock is down 11%. why? rates are up. >> d.r. who are tan and lennar are below for the first time in many, many months. challenging the spositive momentum and the home builder survey and housing starts are suggesting that you're beginning to see weakening in demand. the spring season is not suggesting that it's going to be as strong as we witnessed in prior springs. so i think, to answer your question at the end of the
remember, here comes another treasury refunding, and the last two treasury refundings have been positive catalysts for the market both in february and in november. the market rallied off of both of those. so next week's going to be critical. back to what you said before, reits, utilities, do not go anywhere near there. you said the s&p is off 4%. do you know the russell is off 20% its all-time high? i wouldn't touch the russell 2000. >> the russell is down 7.5% this month. this month....
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Apr 11, 2024
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if it doesn't deliver in earnings, then to your point, it's going to be troubling to look at treasury yields at those elevated levels. >> well then you question the multiple, right? cameron, you've had multiple expansions, right? that's how we've gotten here. you're supported by something like earnings. >> and you could probably make the argument that at the end of march at 21.2 times forward, maybe that was the peak multiple given this yield backdrop. the thing about earnings to watch really closely is that they become more back-end loaded. if you look at it, you kept the earnings estimate for 2024 the same, but it's all put into the third and fourth quarter. fourth quarter growth is expected to be 11%. so we're listening closely from guidance from the companies as we go into earnings season to see if that kind of growth in the back half of the year is possible. >> worst sector this week, joe? >> financials. why is that concerning? well they kicked off earning seasons in the morning. are they going to deliver something uplifting or are we going to be writing off a group that's done r
if it doesn't deliver in earnings, then to your point, it's going to be troubling to look at treasury yields at those elevated levels. >> well then you question the multiple, right? cameron, you've had multiple expansions, right? that's how we've gotten here. you're supported by something like earnings. >> and you could probably make the argument that at the end of march at 21.2 times forward, maybe that was the peak multiple given this yield backdrop. the thing about earnings to...
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Apr 16, 2024
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treasuries, by intervening into the market, they're basically effectively need to sell treasuries and buy back the japanese yen. which, you know, could effect, you know, u.s. interest rates in a way they don't want to. also, by selling u.s. dollars, that could also cause, you know, inflation to rise, because a weaker dollar is inflationary. that's one of the main reasons why i don't think we're going to get coordinated intervention. the japanese currency spokesman has been teasing the contact he's having with international central banks, but i don't think this is the right environment for them to come into, because they're basically trying their best to keep that inflation level going in the right direction. but at the end of the day, melissa, i think it's important to realize that even if the bank of japan come in, the intervention rarely is lasting in the market. unless it's coordinated. and we've seen this time and time again. so, i think, you know, it's going to be a futile effort on their part. i think we're going to see a situation where even if they intervene, dollar-yen is goi
treasuries, by intervening into the market, they're basically effectively need to sell treasuries and buy back the japanese yen. which, you know, could effect, you know, u.s. interest rates in a way they don't want to. also, by selling u.s. dollars, that could also cause, you know, inflation to rise, because a weaker dollar is inflationary. that's one of the main reasons why i don't think we're going to get coordinated intervention. the japanese currency spokesman has been teasing the contact...
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Apr 15, 2024
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>> they did worsen as treasury yields lifted. basically you have the bond market searching for the pain point of not just stock investors, but the economy to a degree. yes, i agree with the conversation tlaerl we're seeing yields go up for positive reasons on balance, which is the economy is holding up better and seeing hot retail sales number and the manufacturing stuff inflect higher. all that is good, but it can be self-undermining and the consumer stocks are not celebrating a strong retail sales number. i think that's the main dynamic, especially over the last ten days. you know, the tlt long-term treasury yield marching the stock market down in the context of a market primed for some excuse for a 3 to 5% drop. 3.5% off the highs, persistently over bought in an up trend to cracked the momentum, broke the short-term uptrend and after today probably oversold. the vix went up to 20. all those dynamics seem to be falling into place even if we still need more clarity on whether bonds will find buyers here and, you know, obviously,
>> they did worsen as treasury yields lifted. basically you have the bond market searching for the pain point of not just stock investors, but the economy to a degree. yes, i agree with the conversation tlaerl we're seeing yields go up for positive reasons on balance, which is the economy is holding up better and seeing hot retail sales number and the manufacturing stuff inflect higher. all that is good, but it can be self-undermining and the consumer stocks are not celebrating a strong...
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Apr 11, 2024
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the treasury market yesterday. hotter than expected cpi number came in with yields and the equity markets moved instantly on this. a 20-basis point move within a matter of minutes. t t two--y two-year yield at 4.95. mike, what was interesting is this is not a major move if you look at equities. pull back of 4400 is 1%. the shift with the big moves in the treasury markets and the idea that the fed will not be cutting as soon. >> it created a plot twist for the year. if you go back a month, the idea is the bull case is the economy is better than expected and earnings are higher. bond yields are tame and oil was okay. although it was rising. we were likely to get the fed to ease pretty soon into the record high stock market. >> perfect scenario. >> now it seems there is a bit more waiting to be done for inflation. there are tradeoffs. we have to understand if the fed will slow more before declaring victory on inflation. it is a complicating factor. 1% move down in stocks. that was the move that was predicted by the op
the treasury market yesterday. hotter than expected cpi number came in with yields and the equity markets moved instantly on this. a 20-basis point move within a matter of minutes. t t two--y two-year yield at 4.95. mike, what was interesting is this is not a major move if you look at equities. pull back of 4400 is 1%. the shift with the big moves in the treasury markets and the idea that the fed will not be cutting as soon. >> it created a plot twist for the year. if you go back a month,...
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Apr 29, 2024
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treasuries, and that doesn't bode well here, especially when their buying power at 160, 155, 145, is not what it was. and i do think it's a case where markets will push and push and push, that's what's going on in japan right now, and it's not positive for the sense of volatility in markets overall. >> guy >> something happened last night. it traded up to 160, 10:00 our time, within minutes, it was down to 156 and change, 155 and change, so -- whether or not it was an intervention they're going to announce -- something clearly did happen, number one tim is spot on their credibility is shot. they can intervene all they want, it's not going to work in order for something to work, they have to raise rates in a meaningful way, but that will crater an economy that's already sort of on the brink, so, they face a huge dilemma here their currency is going to continue to weaken, which is really bad for the people that live there, or they're going to have to raise rates to defend their currency, which, by the way, is really bad for people who live there and his point about owning treasuries, t
treasuries, and that doesn't bode well here, especially when their buying power at 160, 155, 145, is not what it was. and i do think it's a case where markets will push and push and push, that's what's going on in japan right now, and it's not positive for the sense of volatility in markets overall. >> guy >> something happened last night. it traded up to 160, 10:00 our time, within minutes, it was down to 156 and change, 155 and change, so -- whether or not it was an intervention...
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Apr 15, 2024
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treasuries, take a look there, yields resuming their rise. treasury yields did come in a little bit. you see there that the 10-year is up around 4.59. basically last week's high as well. 2-year note, 4.96 as we reprice what the fed is likely or not likely to do. the inflation data. we're waiting for retail sales data, that will fill in another side of this picture, lot of questions about the effect on consumers, the ongoing inflationary episode here and whether in fact that side of the economy can in fact hold together. it's gotten some comfort with the better than expected economic numbers this year in being patient on potential rate cuts. steve is here. >> pretty good numbers, mike. up 1.1%, the consensus was 0.4. february again doubled 0.6 versus 0.3. cars and parts sales were down 0.7%. be careful with that number, we had a little deflation in the car/used car area. take out autos and gasoline, 1%. a good number. retail sales, control group, an important number, up 1.1%. the consensus was 0.04%, number that's going to lead to upgrades to
treasuries, take a look there, yields resuming their rise. treasury yields did come in a little bit. you see there that the 10-year is up around 4.59. basically last week's high as well. 2-year note, 4.96 as we reprice what the fed is likely or not likely to do. the inflation data. we're waiting for retail sales data, that will fill in another side of this picture, lot of questions about the effect on consumers, the ongoing inflationary episode here and whether in fact that side of the economy...
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Apr 15, 2024
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one thing jumping is the ten-year treasury note year. we're at 4.26, the highest level in five months. continuing to march higher after the retail sales report came in stronger this morning. 0.7% growth in retail sales in march versus the 0.4% expected. just the latest hot data point leading to questions about whether the fed can cut rates this year. joining us is jpmorgan chief u.s. economist, what did you think of retail sales? >> it was hot across the board, not only in march but revisions to january and february were favorable. overall looks like the consumer, which earlier there were some signs maybe we were softening at the beginning of the year. now that doesn't look to be the case. i think it's important, particularly on the back of some strong employment numbers we saw two weeks ago. it will make it challenging for the fed to cut, especially with these inflation numbers. >> what is your thinking on that? are they able to cut this year? >> right now we still have them cutting in july, but i think if it's going to be tough -- they
one thing jumping is the ten-year treasury note year. we're at 4.26, the highest level in five months. continuing to march higher after the retail sales report came in stronger this morning. 0.7% growth in retail sales in march versus the 0.4% expected. just the latest hot data point leading to questions about whether the fed can cut rates this year. joining us is jpmorgan chief u.s. economist, what did you think of retail sales? >> it was hot across the board, not only in march but...
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Apr 26, 2024
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treasuries and even though that's happening, yields are continuing to go up, so it really tells you about the underlying weakness that we've seen in the bond market you've got the largest foreign buyer in the world with an excuse to be buying it, and yet, we're still seeing bonds sell off, and we're still seeing yields go higher. >> jim, i want to pivot you to next week in terms of qra on monday, and then also the fed meeting, you know, how do you see this all playing out i mean, in terms of the positioning for qra and also for the fed meeting. >> there's a lot of news next week monday is the quarterly refunding announcement we all remember november it produced, you know, when the treasury came out and said we're going to buy less notes and bonds skpshand more bills and i sparked a huge rally in bonds. they've played that card i don't know if they can play that card again because now at least everybody's looking for that, and it's going to be really hard to really surprise everybody. they still have to fund the def deficit. they can't come out and say we're going to sell as many bonds as
treasuries and even though that's happening, yields are continuing to go up, so it really tells you about the underlying weakness that we've seen in the bond market you've got the largest foreign buyer in the world with an excuse to be buying it, and yet, we're still seeing bonds sell off, and we're still seeing yields go higher. >> jim, i want to pivot you to next week in terms of qra on monday, and then also the fed meeting, you know, how do you see this all playing out i mean, in terms...